11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations completely undermine credible deterrence of war
Russian State TV nuclear war propaganda 7 April 2023
Russian State TV Belarus tactical nukes are to be used against
Russian State TV Channel 1 arguing for use of nuclear weapon
ABOVE (VIDEO CLIP): Russian State TV Channel 1 preparing Russians mentally for nuclear war (they already have nuclear shelters and a new Putin-era tactical nuclear war civil defense manual from 2014, linked and discussed in blog posts here) arguing for use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine war in 2023: "We should not be afraid of what it is unnecessary to be afraid of. We need to win. That is all. We have to achieve this with the means we have, with the weapons we have. I would like to remind you that a nuclear weapon is not just a bomb; it is the heritage of the whole Russian people, suffered through the hardest times. It is our heritage. And we have the right to use it to defend our homeland [does he mean the liberated components of the USSR that gained freedom in 1992?|. Changing the [nuclear use] doctrine is just a piece of paper, but it is worth
making a decision."
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations completely undermine credible deterrence of war: Glasstone exaggerates urban "strategic" nuclear weapons effects by using effects data taken from unobstructed terrain (without the concrete jungle shielding of blast winds and radiation by cities!), and omits the most vital uses and most vital effects of nuclear weapons: to DETER world war credibly by negating the concentrations of force used to invade Belgium, 1914 (thus WWI) and Poland (WWID). The facts from Hiroshima and Nagasaki for the shielding of blast and radiation effects by modern concrete buildings in the credible nuclear deterrence of invasions (click here for
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data) which - unlike the countervalue drivel that failed to prevent WW2 costing millions of human lives - worked in the Cold War despite the Western media's obsession with treating as Gospel truth the lying anti-nuclear propaganda from Russia's World Peace Council and its allies (intended to make the West disarm to allow Russian invasions without opposition, as worked in Ukraine recently)! Realistic effects and credible nuclear weapon capabilities for deterring or stopping aggressive invasions and attacks which could escalate into major conventional or nuclear wars. Credible deterrence necessitates simple, effective protection against concentrated and dispersed invasions and bombing. The facts can debunk massively inaccurate, deliberately misleading CND "disarm or be annihilated" pro-dictatorship (""communism" scam) political anti-nuclear deterrence dogma. Hiroshima and Nagasaki anti-nuclear propaganda effects lies on blast and radiation for modern concrete cities is debunked by solid factual evidence kept from public sight for political reasons by the Marx-media which is not opposed by the remainder of the media, and the completely fake "nuclear effects data" sneaks into "established pseudo-wisdom" by the back-door. Another trick is hate attacks on anyone telling the truth: this is a repeat of lies from Nobel Peace Prize winner Angell and pals before WWI (when long-"outlawed" gas was used by all sides, contrary to claims that paper agreements had "banned" it somehow) and WWII (when gas bombing lies prior to the war by Angell, Noel-Baker, Joad and others were used as an excuse to "make peace deals" with the Nazis, again,
Russians being prepared for use of nuclear weapons, says ...
not worth the paper they were printed on).
PLEASE CLICK HERE for the truth from Hiroshima and Nagasaki for the shielding of
blast and radiation effects by modern concrete buildings in the credible nuclear deterrence of invasions which - unlike the countervalue drivel that failed to prevent WW2 costing millions of human lives - worked in the Cold War despite the Western media's obsession with treating as Gospel truth the lying anti-nuclear propaganda from Russia's World Peace Council and its allies (intended to make the West disarm to allow Russian invasions without opposition, as worked in Ukraine recently)! Realistic effects and credible nuclear weapon capabilities for deterring or stopping aggressive invasions and attacks which could escalate into major conventional or nuclear wars. Credible deterrence is through simple, effective protection against concentrated and dispersed invasions and aerial attacks, debunking inaccurate, misleading CND "disarm or be annihilated" left political anti-nuclear deterrence dogma. Hiroshima and Nagasaki anti- nuclear propaganda effects lies on blast and radiation for modern concrete cities is debunked by solid factual evidence kept from public sight for political reasons by the
Marx-media.
Russian State TV channel prepares its people for nuclear war 2
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Glasstone's and Nukemap's fake Effects of Nuclear Weapons effects data for unobstructed deserts, rather than realistic blast and radiation shielding concrete jungles which mitigate countervalue damage as proved in Hiroshima and Nagasaki by Penney and Stanbury, undermine credible world war deterrence just as Philip Noel-Baker's 1927 BBC radio propaganda on gas war knock-out blow lies were used by Nazi propaganda distributing "pacifist disarmers" to undermine deterrence of Hitler's war, murdering tens of millions deliberately through lies (e.g. effective gas masks don't exist) that were easy to disprove, but supported by the mainstream fascist leaning press in the UK. Realistic effects and credible nuclear weapons capabilities for deterring or stopping aggressive invasions and attacks which could escalate into major conventional or nuclear wars debunk Marx media propagandarists who obfuscate because they don't want you to know the truth, so activism is needed to get the message out against lying frauds and open fascists in the Russian supporting Marx mass media. For the true effects in modern city concrete buildings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, disproving the lies for nudes in open deserts used as the basis for blast and radiation calculations by Glasstone and Nukemap, please click here The deceptive bigots protraying themselves as Federation of American Scientists genuine communist disarmers in the Marx media including TV scammers have been suppressing the truth to sell fake news since 1945 and in a repetition of the 1920s and 1930s gas war media lying for disarmament and horror news scams that caused disarmament and thus encouraged Hitler to initiate the invasions that set off WWII! Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations completely undermine credible deterrence of war: Glasstone exaggerates urban "strategic" nuclear weapons effects by using effects data taken from unobstructed terrain (without the concrete jungle shielding of blast winds and radiation by cities!), and omits the most vital uses and most vital effects of nuclear weapons: to DETER world war credibly by negating the concentrations of force used to invade Belgium, 1914 (thus WWI) and Poland (WWII). The facts from Hiroshima and Nagasaki for the shielding of blast and radiation effects by modern concrete buildings in the credible nuclear deterrence of invasions (click here for data) which - unlike the countervalue drivel that failed to prevent WW? costing millions of human lives - worked in the Cold War despite the Western media's obsession with treating as Gospel truth the lying anti-nuclear propaganda from Russia's World Peace Council and its allies (intended to make the West disarm to allow Russian invasions without overwhelming, effective deterrence or opposition, as worked in Ukraine recently)! Realistic effects and credible nuclear weapon capabilities for deterring or stopping aggressive invasions and attacks which could escalate into major conventional or nuclear wars. Credible deterrence necessitates simple, effective protection against concentrated and dispersed invasions and bombing. The facts can debunk massively inaccurate, deliberately misleading CND "disarm or be annihilated" pro-dictatorship
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Tuesday, February 22, 2022 The lack of any credible deterrence led to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia today, 22 02 2022 (updated)
Russian State TV nuclear war propaganda 7 April 2023
Russian State TV Belarus tactical nukes are to be used aga...
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ae Vas
~ ce
Recently declassified high quality photos of the effects of the 1949 Russian nu:
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Extracts from Beria's , 163 final (28 October 1949) report to Stalin the 1949 Russian nuclear test data
3axmounTenbHbii foKNay JI.0.bepua 0.B.Cranuny 0 pe3y.1bTaTaX HCNbITAHHA ATOMHOH OomG6pl
28 oxtaOpa 1949 r. Tosapuuy Cranany VB.
OnrvueckuMH W3MepeHHaMH (poH3Be7eHHEIMH MPH MOMOUIM Ciel{HasIbHO CKOH- CTPyHPOBaHHBIX CBCPXCKOPOCTHBIX PoToKamep, AaromHx 600 000, 100 000 u 25 000 KaIpOB B C€KyHJYy, OObIMHEIX KHHO- H aspoorokamep, CileyHaIbHbIX ClieKTporpatbos H APyrHXx H3MepHTeMbHBIX NpHOopos, 3apaHee yCTAaHOBeCHHBIX Ha AUcTaHuMAX | 800, 3 000 uw 5 000 merpos or wexHTpa B3pEIBa)
(= Russia set up high speed cameras running at 600,000, 100,000 and 25,000 frames/second at 1.8, 3.0 and 5.0 km from ground zero to film fireball.)
Vismepeno, 4TO NOTOK TeIMIOBOTO H3ITyeHHA B3pbIBa CocTaBAseT 4 % sHeEprHH TeneHusA BCei MaCCbI IYTOHHA, COCTaBIIABIUeH 3apaq AaTOMHOH OomOnI, HCMbITAHHOIt 29 asrycta 1949 rona.
(= The bomb's measured thermal yield was 4%.)
Gamma doses (R) Neutron doses (R) Reflected m blast, tons/m
TraMMa-sy4eli HeHTpoHHOrO 300 m 420 000 300 27 000 000 Aasienne orpaxcHHolt 400 m 155 000 400 m 38 000 {apa eee 500 m 68 000 500 m 12 000 200m 29007/m 600 m 32 000 600 m 4200 250m 1560 700 m 15 000 7100 m 1 800 300 m 7710 800m 7 800 800 Mm 800 400 Mm 225 900 m 4 200 500 m 82 1000 2 300 1 000 m 180 600m = 48 1100™ 1260 800m ~—._-21 1 200m 700 1 200 m 35 1 200m 12,1 1300 m 410 1 800 m 6,2 1 500 140 3 000 m 3,1 1 600 m 80 5 000 m 1,9 1700 m 48 10 000 m 0,9 1800 30
Ha OcHOBaHHH NPHHATOH 1d B3PbIBA TPOTHa 3aBHCHMOCTH AaBJIeHHA yapHoli BOJIHBI OT PaCCTOAHHA H BeCa 3apsta CMeWMAaNHCTAI YCTAHOBHIIH, 4TO TPOTHIIOBBIii SKBHBasIeHT aTOMHOM GomObi HcnbITaHHOH 29 asrycta 1949 r. KOHCTpyKI[HH, paBeH 11 000 ToRH Tporuaa.
(= Bomb's BLAST yield partition was 11 kt of TNT.)
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Jleticmeue e3poienot 6c
Viz Bcex BH0B G6oeBo (camonetsI): 43 53 camone 500 zo 4 000 mMetpos, octa
Apmuaneputicxoe eoop POB H 3Ha4HTeIbHO MOBpe nomHoro paspyuienua (non HEM TaHKaM B paytuyce 35(
Bo3ayuHble unuu cea OenbHbIe IHHHH, Mpomoxer (= Military effec Out of 53 aircra survived intact. Field artillery ai and had signific Ground-laid cak
overhead cable
Animal Effects | Tests, by V. A. | Corporation, 20 TR-07-38): “The medica 8,000 experi sheep, dogs, basic ways t problems we that used an in military ar Animals wer long-term sti items (tanks automobiles, and wooden
Page 36: at the burns occurrec
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Goose — ~> : (instrument tower)
(instrument Bomb tower)
Earth covered
shelters J ” Facing oN, Te | adhe
| :
iF 7 a " | Bomb assembly E ial:
building ee
Timber framed earth-filled blast wall
Dogs in trench shelters
Russian civil defense — validated
Fireball near thermal minimum, showing development of dust skirt at base (thermally popcorned sand billows upward in precursor blast)
Fireball brightens as the shock front expands beyond shell
of nitrogen dioxide which absorbs thermal radiation while the overpressure is high
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2=7500 | 0
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Right: 14 different target sectors or lines stretched out to distances of up to 10 km (6 miles) from the 29 August 1949 Russian 22 kt nuclear test tower. This Russian poster uses a non- linear distance scale to show the ranges to which different items were exposed. Tanks were sector 5, out to 2 km in the South-West.
nOfATOTOBKA K NPOBEAEHM!IO NEPBOroe Ape Target array for the first ever Russian nucle snecaa 13: Communich®iths Cxema pacnonoxeH!
N 1: Mines na"W" ndrader () ucnbiTaHun 29.08.
3 CeKTOp — BOOpyxeé 4 CeKTOp — apTunne 5 cekTop — 6poHete 6 cekTop — aBToTpa 7 cextop — 6uonory 8 CeKTOp — NpomMbiu 9 CeKTOp — vHKeHe| 10 cekTop — camone 11 CEKT — A3Mepe 12 cextop — o6be
13 cekTop — TeXHUK\ 14-15 cextopa — np!
B kaxkgom cekTope onpegeneHua Y
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— ~~
PA ee 5 \
it frisitl
jdjdnuy! pants Ml
parbidM@c Md | Ut om ror 0 | fire
pT Cee t | ca
bingy
COMPARISON OF INFINITE TIME FALLOUT GAMMA DOSES OUTDOORS FROM 7 ROENTGENS — @BAPHANA ‘= %, AnTavcKuk KPAA 7x \ 07. 08.62 : i
ALTAI TERRITORY 7 at ( ) { 601é oAP \ O4P f surface ‘ f i burst ; 9.9 kt 3 e 4 kt air burst at 750m a J surface f 95.09.62. Pl = burst | a. RDS-1 (22kt (hot t "ol ~~ _ burst n spot) a ra - 29.08.49 1 we , 22.455 A A irst Russi y # -- RD 1 # : nuclear ojP LA foMe Ef _ pes 4 a Zi gua We 4,0P \ _teme ai Pysyoaen - sp _ yy" at 1550 Zi i Cxema pi ee 20 Pi \ GAS : x TeppuTopH - TaMMa-H3Nl Test * 60P Slt pamHoaxkTr We Ycnosi Site 2 me \. area Ad ot po “.. Key to tests ---- a tered dates tested)
NOTE: Russian letter P = Enalish letter R (ROENTGENS DOSES)
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CLOSE-IN GAMMA RADIATION (mR/HOUR) FROM ALL TESTS, DEC. 1955 SEMIPALATINSK NUCLEAR TEST SITE
Beckaparavicnuu PAHOH
sae 7; Bs sy ae
V. M. Loborev, et : radioactive contai nuclear explosion. Test Site, Final Re Institute of the Mi Federation, 1992
4
yp. ,CAPwt~Ssenes (rtvemua) (Sary-Uzen)
nny AKTAHB PRY” | TLerencu i (Degelen)
' CEMUNATHHCKMM | nonurox 1
EMUMARATHHCKAA osnact> ( 54%)
Cxema panHoaxTHBHoro JarpasHeHHa TeppHTopHH = Onbitkoro) none = cero CemunanaTHHCKoro MONMrOHa NO COCTORHHIO Ha nexaGpp 1956 roma. [loxasaHo nonoxcHne WIONMHHA MOUHOCTeH M03 TaMMa-H3NYYCHHR B s. _ mKP/Y: MI: 500000 ABA pcm 1-12-40
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Development (1949-1952) @ Chronicle - History of Rosatom biblioatom.ru/tl/year/1949/
1949@®
aa
+ bd Ps
1950 1951 1952
By July 26, 1949
; The construction and equipment of a test site for detonating the nuclear charge of the first Soviet plutonii
In just two years, a colossal amount of work was completed, with excellent quality and at a high techni
—4i) sites by road on dirt roads for 100-200 km. Traffic was around the clock in both winter and summer.
Numerous structures with measuring equipment, military, civil and industrial facilities were located on the factors of a nuclear explosion.
In the center of the experimental field there was a metal tower 37.5 m high for the RDS-1 installation. The experimental field was divided into 14 test sectors: two fortification sectors, a sector of civil struc samples of military equipment, and a biological sector.
Along the radii in the northeast and southeast directions at various distances from the center, in photochronographic, film and oscillographic equipment that recorded the processes of a nuclear explosior At a distance of 1000 m from the center, an underground building was built for equipment that regi:
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explosion.
The optical and oscilloscope equipment was controlled via cables from a programmable_machine. To study the impact of a nuclear explosion, sections ofsubwey tunnels Jragments of airfield runways, [pip supersctorespt various types were built on the experimental field. It took 90 railway wagons to tr:
o ensure the operation of the physical sector, 44 facilities and a cable network with a length of 560 km w The total area of the Semipalatinsk test site was 18.5 thousand square meters. km. The total cost of setti
to 185 million rubles.
ABOVE: the Russian instrumentation and target array methodology on their first nuclear test (RDS1, 22 kt on a 37.5 m high tower, 29 August 1949; high quality declassified 1949 test photos are taken from the 2018 Sarov Nuclear Weapons Museum brochure, linked here) was far more extensive than any Western nuclear test ever conducted, and animals were successfully used to determine the protective factors of shelters and trenches against the combined blast and radiation environment, proof testing almost the entire Russian nuclear civil defense system (it continued to do this at later tests up to and including the 1.6 megaton air burst of 22 November 1955; see the data summary in the DTRA commissioned report Animal Effects from Soviet Atmospheric Nuclear Tests by the Russians V. A. Logachevy and V. A. Mikhalikhina of the VNIIEF, Sarovy - the protective factor of any shelter or structure is simply obtained from the ratio of the percentage of animals surviving in a structure, compared to unprotected controls - which are unfortunately lumped together for different tests with varying yields and distance ranges to avoid secrecy here). The cost of setting up the 1949 nuclear test site with its 14 target array sectors around ground zero out to 10 km radius was 185,000,000 rubles, including a 560 km cable network which was damaged by the unexpected EMP effect. Key American nuclear test effects data on simple trench and earth covered emergency shelters is still classified secret, since it comes within the bureaucratic province of military structures. America's secret EM-1, Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons, Chapter 15, Damage to Structures, revised in April 1993, Tables 15.17 and 15.18 in Northrop's unclassified 1996 compressed book summary, states that such 6x8 ft military command post and hardened-frame/fabric personnel shelters with 4 feet of earth cover, all require 30, 50 and 60 psi peak overpressure for 50% probability of light, moderate and severe damage, respectively. Northrop's unclassified Table 14.1, Combat Ineffectiveness for Personnel in an Open Two-Man Foxhole (2 x 6 x 4.5 ft) side- on the blast wave shows 50% combat ineffectiveness at 37 psi peak overpressure for a 0.01 kt and 29 psi for yields of 0.1 kt to 1 Mt (so the clean or enhanced neutron bomb is needed for credible deterrence, not just the low-yield option on high yield dial-a-yield weapons that produce trivial neutron doses). These American nuclear test data derived statistics are similar to T. K. Jones' figures - discussed later in detail in this blog post - for the excellent nuclear war survival of Russian expedient blast/fallout shelters. Figure 15.62, Basic vulnerability chart for tunnels in rock, however, shows that tunnel shelters in granite/hard rock, with a highly deformable composite lining between the rock and the tunnel lining (bags full of aluminium metal chips, for instance, were used by T. K. Jones to shock-protect sensitive equipment in successful tests, e.g. a motorbike driven away after surviving a peak blast overpressure of 600 psi, which would be in the crater for a surface burst and well over the peak at ground zero from the air bursts that optimised low pressure area damage
to wooden houses at Hiroshima and Nagsaki) survive at just 650 feet or 200 metres from 1 megaton yield.
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7 ADA 956120
17
5-18 5-19 5-20 5-21 5-22 5-23 5-24 5-25 5-26 5-27 5-28 5-29
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.
s TECHNICAL INFORMATION
hin
CONCEPTS FOR PROTRACTED WAR @
al
Casualty Ranges for Nuclear Weapon Effects -
Boeing Aerospace Company P.O. Box 3999
Seattle. Washington 98124 DI SEP 04 1992
1 December 1980
Troops IN Open cecssecececvccssccesessecsevssccccecceessessees 191 Wooden Blast Shelter (15 psi) «++rseeeeeeeeess eecececccveecess el G2 Steel Blast Shelter (50 psi) ssecseesevcceecnveees eeecccccecces 193 Variation of Initial Total Dose With Range from Burst Point ...195 Soil Shielding from Initial Gamma Radiation «-+-+--eeeeeeeeee e+ 196 Comparison of Base Sizes serreerescccccceccccreverecerccesees es DM
Command and Control! STOL Aircraft Configuration -++++++++++++++206 Concept: Hardened Off-Base shelter Facilities --+-++++see+++++210 Shelter Communications «-crccrcvcccvccccccscvevesccscccsesessssegle Concept: Road Mobile Transport --cescescccccccesccccserceseeeedlG Personne] and Mobile Office Transport +++++sseseeeeeeeeeeeeeee e216 Replacement AFSAT (Compatible with MM-III) ssscsceeesseeeeeee e223 Launch Event Sequence --ceerceesccccccccrccsevccecerecccssessess aad
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SHELTER TYP AND TYPICAL INSTALLATIO
Wood Shelte USAF b Navy $ Army B
Steel Shelt USAF b Navy s
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For example event to protect a mi
range. Figure 5-6 sh metal damage. In fac! Ww Figures 5-7
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Blast tests led by TK Jones of Boeing aluminium chips absorb blast energ
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[hwy Po a ah a
4 JULY 1982
THIS MAN THINKS YOU SHOULD BUY A FALL-OUT SHELTER
(One of his, preferably — he sells them. See page 24)
ABOVE: Left wing Observer aka Sunday Guardian promoting nuclear shelters on 4 July 1982. But are such shelters necessary? New research shown in this post proves that if people can simply descend to the lower floors in the attack warning period (behind tables to shelter from window glass) or to the basements or underground car parks of modern buildings which survive radiation and blast effects far better than the wooden homes in Hiroshima in 1945 (see diagram below from EM1)), the mutual shielding from the "concrete and steel jungle" in a modern city will screen out the radiation and will reduce blast wind and debris hazards. Russia has such basement shelters and tunnel shelters already in cities, as well as evacuation plans and nuclear tested expedient blast and fallout shelters for dispersing the people in a crisis. The American born Lord Chancellor of England, lawyer Lord Lyndhurst (John Singleton Copley, born in Boston, Massachusetts, in 1772) said in his House of Lords Speech, Russia and the Crimean War on 19 June 1854:
"The whole series of her history, from the earliest period to the present day, has been one of long-continued fraud and perfidy, of stealthy encroachment, or open and unblushing violence - a course, characteristic of a barbarous race, and whether at St Petersburg or Tobolsk, marking its Asiatic origin. To go back to the reign of the Empress Catherine, we find her policy in one striking particular corresponding with that of the present Emperor, which policy can be traced back to the Czar Peter. She ostentatiously proclaimed herself the Protector of the Greek Church in Poland, formented religious dissentions among the people, and under pretense of putting an end to disorders which she herself had created, sent a large military force into the country ... With a like policy in the Crimea, the independence of which country had been settled by treaty, she set up a prince whom she afterwards deposed, and, amidst the confusion thus created, entered the country with an army under one of the most brutal and sanguinary of her commanders, and, having
slaughtered all who opposed her, annexed this important district permanently to the Russian Empire. ... I pass over the extensive
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conspiracy in which Russia was engaged with Persia [IRAN] ... against this country ... These scandalous transactions were strenuously denied by Count Nesselrode to our minister at St Petersburg, but were afterwards conclusively established by Sir Alexander Burnes and by our consul at Candahar. ...we ought not to make peace until we have destroyed the Russian fleet in the Black Sea and razed the fortifications ... That she will not remain stationary we may confidently predict. Ambition, like other passions, grows by what it feeds upon. Prince Lieven, in the despatch to Count Nesselrode, to which I before alluded, says: 'Europe contemplates with awe this colossus, whose gigantic armies wait only the signal to pour like a torrent upon her kingdoms and states’. If this semi-barbarous people, with a government of the same character, disguised under the thin cover of a showy but spurious refinement ... despotism the most coarse and degrading that every afflicted mankind - if this power with such attributes should establish itself in the heart of Europe (which may Heaven in its mercy avert!) it would be the heaviest and most fatal calamity that could fall on the civilized world." (For complete validation of this claim a century later, see WWIII nuclear war threat of Khrushchev, made even before Russia had a nuclear superiority, in 1959 - linked below - and Eisenhower's autistic mimickery of Chamberlain's autistic appeasement of Hitler for "peace" on 30 sept '38! The situation is far worse now because there really is a missiles, tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear warhead
designs "implementation gap" today in which we are behind, which makes Russian threats credible, unlike 1959!)
Your generals talk of maintaining your position in
Berlin with force. | That is bluff.| If you send in tanks, they will burn and make no mistake about it.
If you want war, you can have it, but remember, it
Khrushchev, June 23, 1959
Q: What do you think of talk such as this? THE PRESIDENT: Well, I don't think anything about it
at all. I don't believe that |responsible people] should
indulge in anything that can be even remotely considered ultimatums or threats. That is\not the way to reach peaceful solutions.
(TEXTBOOK AUTISM) Eisenhower, July 8, 1959
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50% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE DAMAGE (COLLAPSE) FOR CITY BUILDINGS (SOURCE: NORTHROP, EM-1 NUCLEAR WEAPON EFFECTS HANDBOOK, 1996, TABLE 15.6, AND FIGURES 15.10, 15.18, SURFACE BURSTS)
BUILDING VALUES (NOMINAL Oscillation Static yield STRUCTURE Period (ms) resistance (psi)jratio (u)
Peak overpressure
(psi) 20 KT IMT
15.2.2, 3-8
Story
Reinforced
Concrete 300 3.0 Building
(Concrete
Walls)
a2 12
15.2.10, 3-10
Story Steel 600 2.0 Frame
Building
23 13
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DES MPOoOTUBOPARUALUDBDHHbLIE
NpoTHsopagHauHOHHble YHPSITHA SaLMWaIOT MORE OT PANKOaKTHBHOFO Hw CBeTO! OCNaGAAIOT BOSACHCTBHE YAaPHOK BONHY! AAEPHOFO BSpEIBA
f HaMAbih AONMEH 3HaTb, FAe Pacnonomendi Onwmahwine NpOTHBOpA, é ‘MDbITHAR NO MECTY DAOOTbI HK MHNTeNbCTBA.
een (0 meee. - F "a , ~ “- " .¢ ay Avene © + Gamers + taeammen, > r AmcaAmant chalta oS gm ta rat eitiac Fakms Fy homere apace od NS. treme 4 owe Pagneren 0 Se. Sememmumren ‘ ‘ ‘ Ce nA . Akt Maceo Ommmta rc tee amore OCKe Seeenmems soeserer & % cacieen Fase seaeeee =. © Gnas Lick — ACES = 9 VELL ES L tae pe LALAL De
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
PACCPEQOTOYEHME VU SBAKYALWA HACENEHUWA _ pyacuation ar
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Tpamanscnan eGopons CCCP. Hommsoxt 1a 19 maacaton Mana ®
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——
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MPMBOP NMPEQHASHAYEH JA W3MEPEHHA YPOBHEM FAMMA-PAQMAUMH HA MECTHOCTM WM PAQMOAKTHBHOM 3APAMEHHOCTH no ramma-vgnyue- RUSSIAN DP-5V I HUIO NIODEM, NPOMOBONECTBHA, BODbI, TEXHMKM, ODE Abi MOP BOTH GAMMA SL
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POWERED BY THREE KB-1 BATTERIES FOR 55 HOURS. WEIGHT = 3.2 KG.
ABOVE: 10,000 marched to shout "STOP HITLER" while Chamberlain surrendered Sudetenland for a worthless peace deal. Neither the shouting, nor the "peace deal", nor belated token rearmament, deterred WW2. In the cold war, strategic nuclear deterrence failed time and again: Stalin took over Eastern Europe while Truman had a nuclear monopoly. Only credible tactical nuclear weapons had any effect, judging from protests the Moscow World Peace Council organized across the world against the W79 neutron bomb (see 1977 Secret CIA report on neutron bomb propaganda, below and John Barron's "KGB's Magical War for Peace" book extracts in Reader's Digest below, or see Chapman Pincher's book documenting how Moscow's World Peace Council infiltrated anti-nuclear propaganda via stupid appeasing Western media, "The Secret Offensive") - you need credible nuclear deterrence to force madmen not just listen but to respond
usefully.
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Page LN a alee eal . THE DAILY MIRROR: ‘SEPTEMBER 23, ERIE ill il eae
THE MARCH OF TIME THROUGH f
Once more Europe was reshaped yesterday—and every Euro- Pean country shared in the stress and tension that accompanied the remaking.
peage 3 shows you Germany, Sap 4d calm as Mr. Cham-
berlain comes to see Herr Hitler. ‘ow, on this page, take a look = E = ae pt Cecchoslovakia and at the Sudeteh territory that
“there you see bas cp excitement stirred to fever heat . . . « and, strange though it may seem, come back again to German calm—IN ENGLAND—as 800 of her ex-Servicemen sit in the capital as Britain's guests.
10,000 SHOUT ‘STOP HITLER’
TEN THOUSAND people shouting ‘* Stand by the ( tzechs ’> . . , Stop Hider "'....‘' Chamberlain must go,”’ last night staged one of the biggest demonstrations in Whitehall since the beginning of
e crisis The demonstration was arranged by tne International Peace Campaign, to hand in a resolut. of protest against the Anglo-French peace plan to the Foreign Oftce. PLACARDS BE ARING Be S$: “BRITAINS WONOUR LOST TO-DAY WILL , AN Rarraue s e Lost TOMOK t) wy
arms
When the crowé almost broke through,
four mounted police rede Inte Downing Mreet amid bees and hooting
AD
n Office 1© present Uneir
y cheered when it through the police ed by the private
ax Rev. A E Belden. of the Tottenham Court-road. mpson ‘and Professor Sydney rial College of Science of the International pd Mr Kt Preeman, an he campaign. ney remained only = few minutes and ver "they left (Sir Joho Simon and Si Hoa the F Oftice.
It for a policy cox of Britain The crowd began to gather when 100 pickets apisalions sympathetic to the cause uons in Whiteball
GERMAN PUTS FOOTBALL FIRST
A™ Anglo-German meeting brought ; premident, in nls welcome. sald:—" At Unis ume
s £ { international crisis apd dulcult; Pe Westminster Sac sae vt Goatees Secaeg, nn” | Sees
mi reme impertance taal we old “of both countries should lo to understand each ochers Doll of view
In London’: t historic building— Echt hundred German Bervicemen | Je 9 SSS t— + arrintd un the eeu a slanie Fasgeoh ie | “A te ineutarly approprate out owe | SOREL ‘Planes 2 Westminster Hall, scene cf famous spend tree dare ‘tee former English | ern visit of yours should be made herein the | According to a Central News lms were 2 "uken on tach . Loadeo Bertin State trials, of Coronatice banquets, mmunster, ae ne eA EE pg ter and in which, less than three years ago, k-1 fret yy" of one tm vation 7. / Pd pee = hs way to ora your aber twenty-one wiel twomelored Ww oad re are Arenal ying on Baler 7 juke of Baxe-Coburg-Ootha, president bol landed yesterda: réubit the coffin of King George V isy ix state, on ae hes Sent ae the ‘German cx-Bervicepen s Association, Hata, abut sty tales bs vast of Preece hitehall Guta t The 600 German ex-Servicemen en- “We «i bere replying. ~ eighteen simila head sMrators pre added. destre to give reason to the | landed at wodren Werden of police in Whitehall lst sight in an altempt'te tertained to tes yesterday as the guests tte, Vallone, who who came at the eng “ ie of ena en we have Ps our edactic ny ome a * s Downing-street. of the British Government. Minster Hall by Defence Minister Bir Thomas | wah to show before tbe whole world thal we | German, mews ‘osency says thal’ weecae ire, the Gay crowds gathered) to: Rregeo, Satan nak are determined to Soin with them in every | Bevict Ale Force cascese ate to bohacoa t building (right) to speeches announcing the
Major-General Sir Prederick Maurice, Legion effort for honourable peace”
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a @ : ~ Ba ‘ Approved For Release 20a hn-rost M00980R003200010060-0
CIA declassified: CLA- 2 September 1977
RDP81M00980R003200010060-0 -SOVIET PROPAGANDA: THE NEUTRON BOMB
IMMARY: The Soviet Union during July and August 1977 cated a worldwide campaign against U.S. production : of the neutron bomb. The Soviets pursued this issue in every media channel and wherever it was possible to. stimulate adyarse public disc’ssion. These efforts were directed toward pressuring the U.S. to back avay from producing the bomb as well as accumulating political capi- tal for Soviet use at future SALT and CSCE talks. As the campaign peaked at the end of August, it was apparent _
denouncing the neutron bomb. During the week of 1-7 August, significant attention was directed toward support of the Week of Action" organized for 6-13 August by the World Peace Council front group. To keep up steam, Pravda on 9 August published an appeal by 28 communist parties against production oF the neutron bomb. The American Embassy in Moscow noted that the neutron bomb was the prime Soviet propaganda target.
7. Echoes in Eastern Europe. State Department telegrams from East European Posts agree that the aeutran bomo campaign there, which took off in the latter weeks of July, was massive, well-- , organized and faithfully mirrored the Soviet effort. The campaign employed al] channels of public communication: press, radio, tele- vision, petitions, public letter writing and demonstrations. Some coments: ”
10. For the Soviets, the real propaganda paydire lay in editorial treatment given the neutron bomb by this second group, a performance
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
GB: The Ss
Magical War for “Peace”
BYJOHN BARRON
It has spread like a rag- ing fever throughout the world. From Bonn to Is- tanbul, Lima to New York, millions upon millions af people have joined in the nuclear-freeze movemenit. Tt is @ movement largely made up of patriotic, sen- sible people who earnestly believe that they are doing what they must to prevent nucleur war, But itis also a movement that has been penetrated, manipulated and distorted to ¢m amaz- ing degree Ly people who have but one aim—to pro- mote communist tyranny by weakening the United States, Here, in an exclu- sive report, Reader's Di-
Fabrications and Fronts
Ix THe Soviet Lexicon, Active Measures include both overt and covert’ propaganda, manipulation of international front organiza- tons, forgeries, fabrications and deceptions, acts of sabotage or ter- rorism committed for psychologi- cal effect, and the usc of Agents of Influence.*
The KGB has concocted more than 150 forgeries of official U.S. documents and correspondence portraying American leaders as treacherous and the United States asan unreliable, warmongering na-
a ee eee ere Maetb tet URS was @ fabrication titled U.S, Arniy Field Manual FM 30-318 and classi- fied, by the KGH, top secret. Field manuals FM30-31 and FM30-31A did exist; FM30-378 was entirely a Soviet creation. Over the forged signature of Gen, William West- moreland, the manual detailed pro- cedures to be followed by U.S. military personnel in friendly for- eign countries. These fictitious in-
Facade of Peace
Tue Worto Peace Councit emerged in Paris in 1950 to foment “Ban the Bomb" propaganda at a time when the Soviets had not suc-
Judged by NATO Secretary General Luns in a 26 August speech as con- i i yes Wi sisting of half-truths, untruths-and ignorance. Given the emotional ie sealgehniaate, ar a BP themes which were raised in the neutron bomb debate--saving buildings rather than people; the hypocrisy of Americans advocating human — rights. in face of the bomb production; the endangering of detente-- it was an old-fashion editorial binge which many papers would not deny themselves. And beyond the non-communist, anti-bomb press,
nuclear weapons. Expelled from France for subversion in 1951, the wec took refuge in Prague until 1954, when it moved to Vienna.
gest Senior Editor John Barron, author of the best. seller "KGB: The Secret Work of Soviet Secret sAgents," authenticates in detail how the Kremlin, through sourecy, forgery, terrorism and fear, has played upen mankind's longing fm peace to fur- ther its own strateqie
The Austrians also evicted the
Approved For Release 2004/09/24 : CIA-RDP81M00980R003200010060-0 - READERS' DIGEST, 1983 BOO!
EXTRACTS BY JOHN BARRON
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WASHINGTON SCENE... trom the Alaa Washington
@ CIA Daputy Director John McMahon, in testimony before a House Intelligence Subcommittee, estimated that the Soviet Union had spent $200 million on propaganda and covert campaigns against NATO deployment of enhanced- _fadiation (neutron-bomb) weapons and the modernization of theater nuclear weapons.
Enhanced radiation weapons (EARW) increase radiation while greatly reducing blast (tenfold) and heat damage to surrounding areas. Made for use in short-range, tactical nuclear weapons such as the Lance missile and 8-in. howitzar, they would probably be used against Jarge con- centrations of Warsaw Pact tanks, a major threat to NATO.
The campaign against the neutron bomb began in the summer of 1977 and was manifested in a series of coor- dinated diplomatic moves, overt propaganda, and covert political action, said McMahon. It began in the Soviet and East European press and spread to communist international front groups all over the world. “The purpose of this front- group activity was to maintain the campaign’s momentum and to draw noncommunists Into the campaign, particularly
in Western Europe. What had begun as a Soviet effort now
appeared to many as a general public reaction to horrors of the neutron bomb,” said McMahon.
By far the most important comments, said McMahon, appeared in the noncommunist press in the political center
300
250 PROBABILITY OF DAMAGE 200 ~ (percent) “> -
150
100
SCALED GROUND RANGE (ft/KT'/3)
50
Januar
While it is difficult to assess t neutron-bomb campaign, the Cart: of 1978 daferred production of thi modifications to the warheads compatible with ER components. | sults of the Soviat bloc campaign, the chief of the International Dep: Communist Party, Janos Berecz, campaign against the neutron bom nificant and most successtul since also noted that “the Soviet Ar
(Netherlands) at that time was su the CPSU (Communist Party o recognition of the success of the undar his direction, in organizing ° With the neutron bomb temp McMahon, the Sovist Bloc turned i initiated move to modernize the th by deploying the highly accurats missile (GLCM) and the Pershing Ii ployment in late 1983, they will, fc gets on Soviet soi! within range of j i urpose of the modern
WEAPON YIELD (KT)
MORTALITY (percent)
40 50 60 70 80 :
yo-17 4 8850 491 402 102 404 PEAK INCIDENT OVERP
WEAPON YIELD (KT) Figure 14.3. Mortality Due |
Figure 15.52. Vulnerability Curves for a Long Axis of Body Parallel t Horizontal Cylinder, Aspect Ratio R,/T = 10 Blast Wave.
‘Structure Category 15.3.18) Buried in Dry Sand. © SQURCE: NORTHROP, E)
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NPOTHBOPAAWAWHOHHBIE YKPbI
(NPO AON KEHME)
HaceneHue npw yrpo3e HanageHHaA MpOTHBHHKa MOET CBOKMM CHNaMmk CTPO! poga yKppbiTna.
Were Bemnsuka Ykpbithe 43 apouMeix
Npocretusne yxpbirua Thna ulenn ¢ ofexgoOR Kpyrocres ocna6nmor AeacTaKe pagnaunn 6 100—200 pas, ymoubwaior pagnyc
B pakonax ropHogobbisawoujen 4 YrONbHOM NPOMbILINeEHHOCTH NOA YKPBbITHA | BbIPaBbOTKK NO MOGpive CTPONTENbHbIX MaTepHanoB, KaTakKOMOsI, NeuLePbi 4 AP.
Menosbie paspaborn _ Conaneie paspaBborkn
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MPOTHBOPAQWAWMOHHDBIE YKPbI
MPUCNMOCOBNEHHbIE NOM YKPbITMA XO3
MpotHeopafhayHOHHbIMH = YK- PbITHAMH Ha3sbiBatoT COOpyx*Ke- Hus, obecneunBsatmulne 3auynty YKPbIBGHOWHXCSH B HKX NoOgen oF 3aPaHKeHhA PaMhHOAKTHBHbIMH Be- uyeCcTBaMKH MW OT OOnyYeHHA B 30- He PaMhOakTHBHOrO 3aparKeHns M@CTHOCTH.
Noa npoTMsopaaAnauHoHuHbie ykpeitha moryt 6biTb wWHpoOKO HCNONb3OBaHbI = MPUCNOcObneH- Hble JNA ZausnTb! NOABaNbI, NoOA- nonba, norpe6a u aApyrne yr- ny6neHnsa. Kpome toro, yKpbitHs MOryT BOZBOQKMTbCA C HCNONb30- BaHwem NecomaTepHana, Kupnh- 4a, 6eTOHHbIx KH *KEeNE3s06eTOH- HbIxX 3nemeHTos. B cenbckoH me- CTHOCTH YKPbITHA CTPOART H3 NOA-
Py4HbIX MaTepHanoB (Kpyrnbin Nognan KkamexHoro soma, NpHcNOCOGNerHbIK Non Npucnocobnexne noanonsa 4
ykppbirner | — crouxe YCHROHHA aa aia nec, “epg Mu, xB Opoct, KaMbIW oe Gécimna <rpylitomy: 2 marraHOA/ Kopas; 3 — repme- aa ao KexTHNAWHONMEI KOpOb; 4—, K Ap. ). THAMpODSHHEIA MOM; f= yrnyGnexHeim NpKAMoK
CTPOUTENbCTBO YKPbITHM M3 NECOMATEPMANA VM KENESOBETOHHbIX 3.
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Ykpbirue GBesepy6ourom KoncTpyKunK Ha 40 yenoseK
Pipu ebiGope mecTa ANA CTPOKTENCTBS YKPbITHH HYMHO YUHTbIBAaTh BNKAHHE penbeda K OCAAKOA Ha xapakTep
ABOVE: Northrop's Effects Manual 1 (EM1), Tables 15.17 and 15.18 show that simple earth covered expedient shelters have a 50% probability of collapsing at 60 psi peak overpressure, which occurs at just 0.8 mile from a | megaton surface burst, but Figure 15.52 (linked here) shows that a simple reinforced concrete tube use as a shelter (concrete stress strength = 4500 psi, with a thickness equal to 10% of the inner radius of the tube) buried under 6 feet of dry or wet soil (note that the curves for wet soil in Figure 15.55 are similar for severe damage at 1 megaton to dry soil in Figure 15.52) has a 50% probability of collapse at 0.3 mile from a 1 megaton surface burst. (The eight deep personnel shelters under London at are much greater depths than 6 feet.) According to Table 6.12 in the 1957 edition of Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons, Britain's 1939-designed World War Two standard issue corrugated steel arch outdoor Anderson shelters if enlarged to 20-25 feet span (which increases vulnerability, since smaller arches have a smaller exposed area and so receive lower blast loading) and using 10 gage steel with 3 feet earth cover (over the crown), will half collapse (i.e. collapse the side facing ground zero) at 30-35 psi peak overpressure, and will completely collapse at 35-40 psi peak overpressure, based on the 1955 Teapot nuclear test series in Nevada. However, following careful nuclear tests on such shelters during the
1957 Plumbbob series in the Nevada and the 1958 Hardtack series in the Pacific, the "earth arching" protective effect of soil cover was
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Table 15.17. C HANDBOOK Vulnerability I
Interactive CD
a OF ELECTRONIC
cs) 5 < DATES OF @ VERSION 3
~ NUCLEAR WEAPON 22":
PERCENT PROE OF DAMA
4.
Table 15.18. F Vulnerability I
PERCENT PRO OF DAMA
A product of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)
stribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies and their The document on this CD-ROM is readable with Adobe Acrobat pntractors; Critical Technology, September 1996. Other requests Version 4.0 and higher. It is best operated on a PC platform using ir this document shall be referred to the Defense Threat Reduction Windows 95/98/2000/ME/NT.
hency, 8725 John J Kingman Rd , Ft. Belvoir, VA 22060-6021 The equations can be accessed using Mathcad professional
larning-This document contains technical data whose exportis information about this product is available at
stricted by the Arms Export Control Act (Title 22, U.S.C., Section <http://www.mathsoft.com/>. The downloa e Mathcad 8 engine E Xx PEDIENT FI] 51 et seq.) or the Export Administration Act of 1979 r offered by MathSoft. Use of tt does not
as amended s no longe is software es no
discovered and better understood, so that Glasstone's revised 1962 edition of Effects of Nuclear Weapons stated in Table 4.45 (which is reprinted unaltered as Table 5.160 in the 1977 final edition of Effects of Nuclear Weapons) that such shelters with 5 ft earth cover require 45-60 psi peak overpressure for collapse. This revised table also shows that a reinforced concrete arch 8 inches thick with a span of 16 feet and 4 feet of earth cover will require 220-280 psi peak overpressure for collapse. The earth arching and earth shielding effect is the simple, nuclear bomb-tested survival principle behind Cresson Kearny's 1979 Oak Ridge National Laboratory manual, Nuclear War Survival Skills, and the UK government's 1982 Domestic Nuclear Shelters - Technical Guidance 2nd edition (extracts linked here with additional detailed relevant nuclear test data, see illustrations below for the 1982 version of the earth covered 1939 WW2 Anderson shelter - based on data from American and British nuclear tests, from the 1952 Monte Bello Operation Hurricane shot
onwards).
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Fig. 86 Construction and installation drawings 19 So Anders rf for outdoor kit shelter design.
(Domestic Nuclear Shelters - Technica
CoRRUGATED Sections
Guidance) ANGLE DooR SURROUND ze
AiR EXHAUST HOLE wiTH EXCESS PRESSURE 4 EXHAUST VALVE
DooR:
xe DETAIL 39 re
SEE DETAIL ‘D
RiIGIDIZ RiGgiDizep FaANnel
EvTrRANCE Can
OisHED END OUTER DOOR IMPoRTANT — SHEL AND GE COVERED 5)
OR SIMILAR MATER!)
oh
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Fig. 92 looo mm. Minimum
UK Governmen ! Stiffen Surface w 1982 Anderson
Concrete Slab |!5omm. thick with Polythene or One layer of mesh BS.ref A142 |
placed centrally I5o mm. Cru
NIB I. G
Th A>
20 mm. Plywood Base cera Line of Basi
‘Proofex N° |2' or similar material ‘Expandite _Proofe applied to bottom of plywood and applied fo the er
turned up to lap with shelter.
* TYPICAL CROSS SECTION: (FLAT BOTTO!
| ee eee eee Ne
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Table 8.10. Heigh Generic Device Ty
Interactive CD
ELECTRONIC VERSION 3 NOVEMBER 6, 2002
Device Type
Enhanced Radiation Low Yield High Yield Thermonuclear (8) Boosted Fission (5)
Fission (3)
Interactive CD 103
ELECTRONIC VERSION 3 NOVEMBER 6, 2002
DOSE RATE (rads[Si]/sec) °
e
10-2 10°
A product of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)
stribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies and their The document on this CD-ROM is readable with Adobe Acrobat pntractors; Critical Technology, September 1996. Other requests Version 4.0 and higher. it is best operated on a PC platform using i tro ir this document shall be referred to the Defense Threat Reduction Windows 95/98/2000/ME/NT Figure 22.3. Neu
jency, 8725 John J Kingman Rd. Ft Belvoir, VA 22060-6071 ; Siadaas 9 : The equations can be accessed using Mathcad professional Detonation at 1 00 ki larning-This document contains technical data whose exportis information about this product is available at
stricted by the Arms Export Control Act (Title 22, U.S_C., Section <http://www_mathsoft.com/>. The downloadable Mathcad 8 engine (Burst Range, 300 K
51 et seq.) or the Export Administration Act of 1979. as amended is no longer offered by MathSoft. Use of this software does not
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HANDBOOK
OF NUCLEAR WEAPON
‘Y ELECTRONIC ISION 3
VER: NOVEMBER 6, 2002
The document on this CD-ROM is readable with Adobe Acrobat Version 4.0 and higher. It is best operated on a PC platform using Windows 95/98/2000/ME/NT
stribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies and their tractors: Critical Technology, September 1996. Other requests I this document shall be referred to the Defense Threat Reduction ency, 8775 John J Kingman Rd Ft Belvoir, VA 72060-6021 Th - fo
INEFFECTIVENESS
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Table 14.1. Combat Ineffect Two-Man Foxhole (2 x 6 x 4.
0.C PEAK
COMBAT
(%)
UK NATIONAL ARCHIVES: ES 5/2
ANDERSON SHELTER TESTS AGAINST 25 KT NUCLEAR
NEAR SURFACE BURST (2.7 METRES DEPTH IN SHIP) AWRE-T1/54, 27 Aug. 1954 SECRET—GUARD
ATOMIC WEAPONS RESEARCH ESTABLISHMENT (formerly of Ministry of Supply) SCIENTIFIC DATA OBTAINED AT OPERATION HURRICANE (Monte Bello Islands, Australia—October, 1952)
* 7-7x10* 13-5x10 p = 130x10" | 7-710" | 13-510" yg
: Se et Fig. 12.1, Andersons at 1380 ft range from bomb ship shown in the photo, moored 400 yards off shore.
prea Left: Fig. 12.3, Andersons at 1800 ft after burst. Right: Fig. 12.4, Andersons protected by blast walls at 2760 ft.
12.1. Blast Damage to Anderson Shelters
At 1,380 feet, Fig. 12.1, parts of the main structure of the shelters facing towards and sideways to the explosion were blown in but the main structure of the one facing away from the explosion was intact, and would have given full protection. At 1,530 feet, Fig. 12.2, the front sheets of the shelter facing the explosion were blown into the shelter but otherwise the main structures were more or less undamaged, as were those at 1,800 feet, Fig. 12.3.
At 2,760 feet, Fig. 12.4, some of the sandbags covering the shelters were displaced and the blast walls were distorted whilst at 3,390 feet, Fig. 12.5, the effect was quite small. At these distances, the shelters were not in direct view of the explosion owing to intervening sandhills.
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SECRET—G
13. THE PENETRATION OF °
13.1. Experiments on the Protection from Trenches
13.1.1. The experiments described in provide a considerable measure of protectio point of view of Service and Civil Defence important results of the trial.
13.1.2. Rectangular slit trenches 6 ft. | placed at 733, 943 and 1,300 yards from the radius and 6ft. deep were placed at 943 anc
The doses received from the flash were r fibre dosimeters in order to determine the v with depth and with orientation of the trencl by open and covered trenches.
In general, the slit trenches were place but at 1,300 yards one trench was placed en one at 943 yards were covered with the equi
TABLE 13. Variation of Gamma Flash Dose «
| Re Rectan, | gi Type of trench en | oO re ee ees Distance (yards) 733 | 1, Surface dose (Roentgens) Depth below ground level (inches) 6
12
Entries in brackets are extrapc
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. ABOVE: the report on the radiation shielding by simple, quick, and cheap US Civil War, WWI and WWII-style trench shelters
exposed at the UK Hurricane nuclear test in 1952 was classified Secret, although it states in paragraph 13.1.1: "The experiments described in this section show that slit trenches provide a considerable measure of protection from the gamma flash. From the point of view of Service and Civil Defence authorities this is one of the most important results of the trial." This cover-up even after the data is declassified ensures that in a nuclear attack, many people kill be needlessly killed. Thugs believe this will help disarmament propaganda or other propaganda rubbish that totally failed when tried out prior to WWII. Despite this hard-won data being recognised for its importance for civil defence, this data was never published in any UK civil defence manual, handbook or advertisement, and is still covered up, like the rest of the taxpayer funded nuclear test research. When you combine such simple shelters for essential key workers in target areas with crisis evacuation (or "relocation" if "evacuation" is too invocative of September 1939) for the remainder of a city, you achieve a credible war survival strategy that undermines strategic nuclear deterrence. (An enemy can still bomb an evacuated, sheltered city to cause building damage and contamination, but historically this just backfires, increasing the morale and determination of the opponent to fight back.) America for long used secret data from the 1945 combat attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki as its primary data source, classifying the detailed 6-volume Strategic Bombing Survey reports from nuclear use in Japan Secret, and never publishing them or releasing them on the internet (it did not want Russia to have the information), and it did not need to expose a house to a nuclear blast wave until 1951 at Operation Greenhouse. This backfired due to the direct information Russia obtained from its own nuclear tests. (Similarly, Britain obtained independent data debunking American anti-civil defence propaganda lies on survival in flattened houses, which it used to the horror of Russian biased arms control and disarmament folk; the CND style liars simply claimed falsely that faked style American "data" somehow was more reliable than proof tested British data, whose origin was classified secret due to the Marxist infiltrated British bureaucacy which behaved basically as more subtle, even more effective Russian military propaganda front than the better known Cambridge Spy Ring; this thuggery on nuclear weapons capabilities in the UK media continues to this day via Corbyn et al., who are "respected" on nuclear lies by all UK leading "civil defence historians", "cold war historians" and related propagandarists who know nothing about the nuclear effects secrecy problem.) Recent official publications by the designers themselves of the latest Russian thermonuclear
warhead designs, shows equally high quality research, contrary to popular misconceptions.
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is intelligence..
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
< D £ D = a c 2 = fo O 2 ® = O D
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
LA-11401
May 1949. a study headed by Air Force
even if all 133 weap ons detonated on tar-
> seriously impaired capacity would not be sufficiently reduced
\o prevent recovery. The resulting reassess- ment of targeting requirements led to a substantial increase in nuclear production.
UNCLASSIFIE]
A SHORT HISTORY OF THE U.S. NUCLEAR STI 1945-1985 (U)
Raymond Pollock
‘The move awa geting to a mor geting doctrine d military objective
| made possible by
ity of nuclear we.
turn, stimulated tr ror tne £
sion, Which nee
what transitory ta weight BS5 tactica in 1952. This w der by a series <
LA-11401 says that STRATEGIC DETERRENCE using all 133 American nu stockpile in May 1949 (in Harmon's USAF study anyway, the actual nun Los Alamos had bits and pieces of nuclear weapons, many missing "pit:
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html
ABOVE: Secret nuclear weapons stockpile history showing that in May 1949 (the month the Berlin Blockade ended), that the USAF knew using Hiroshima and Nagasaki capabilities of nuclear weapons data that 133 nuclear weapons USED STRATEGICALLY would not win a war against a nuclear unarmed opponent! Hence the increase in American interest in TACTICAL nuclear weapons. Teller wanted the H- bomb because he knew toss all about the effects of nuclear weapons, and didn't want to know the facts, as proved by Dr Frank H. Shelton in Reflections of a nuclear weaponeer which first exposed the crater size lies in Glasstone's book. Teller lies about the firestorm in Hiroshima in his 1962 Legacy of Hiroshima book, which says the exact opposite to the secret 3 volume US Strategic Bombing Survey report (volume 2 of which is specifically about the firestorm, which was set off not by thermal radiation but by blast overturning thousands of charcoal braziers being used to cook breakfast, and the breakfast-timing was also the reason why no air raid alarm was sent
out, according to Yoshi Oka, the Hiroshima air raid sirens operator who survived near ground zero).
ABOVE: Polish Harvard Professor Richard Pipes, who had no love for either the Nazis or the pseudo-Communist nuclear thugs who seized his homeland, famously debunked the bigoted pseudo-pacifists in charge of promoting the 1930s style US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency appeasement/peace deal lies about nuclear war annihilation in his July 1977 Commentary paper, without getting into classified data on nuclear warhead designs or Russian nuclear tests on house and shelter survivability: ''When he was age 16, Pipes laid eyes upon Adolf Hitler at Marszatkowska Street in Warsaw when Hitler made a victory tour after the Invasion of Poland. The
Pipes family fled occupied Poland in October 1939 and arrived in the United States in July 1940, after seven months passing
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July 1977 Commentary, pp
21-34:
Why the Soviet Union Thinks It Could Fight and Win a Nuclear War
Richard Pipes
3. The threat of a second strike, which under- pins the mutual-deterrence doctrine, may prove in- effectual. The side that has suffered the destruc- tion of the bulk of its nuclear forces in a surprise first strike may find that it has so little of a deter- rent left and the enemy so much, that the cost of striking back in retaliation would be exposing its own cities to total destruction by the enemy’s third strike. The result could be a paralysis of will, and capitulation instead of a second strike.
Since the mid-1960’s, the proposition that ther- monuclear war would be suicidal for both parties has been used by the Russians largely as a commod- ity for export. Its chief proponents include staff members of the Moscow Institute of the USA and Canada, and Soviet participants at Pugwash, Dart- mouth, and similar international conferences, who are assigned the task of strengthening the hand of anti-military intellectual circles in the West. Inside the Soviet Union, such talk is generally denounced as “bourgeois pacifism.”24
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Commentary
Malenkov’s un tainly contribu dismissal in Fe companied by the notion that are strong indi Khrushchey, c: military to fox help he eventu military count the World Wa: whom Khrushx
Such figures most Americar 1914 has lost, 2 war, famine, a’ 60 million cil damage” differ has known n deaths from al mated at 650 suffered in tl World War II assess the re’ realistic terms.
through Italy. Pipes became a naturalized citizen of the United States in 1943 while serving in the United States Army Air Corps.
He was educated at Muskingum College, Cornell University, and Harvard University."
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Experis refute CIA - Soviet civil defense
NEW YORK NEWS WORKD, 19 February 1978
By Vicki Tatz | NEWS WORLO WASHINGTON BUREAU |
WASHINGTON—Two experts on Soviet civil defense capabilities dis- agreed sharply yesterday with state- ments released Friday indicating that the CIA does not place great signifi- cance on the massive Soviet prepara- tions... i. a
Dr. Eugenge Wigner, Nobel prize- winning physicist, and retired Gen. George Keegan, former chief of Air Force intelligence, both disagreed with Adm. Stansfield Tumer, the director of the Central Intelligence«-Agency. In.
-+ “T don’t know what the Soviets plan / to initiate,’ Wigner said, “‘but the impression one gets is that they cons- tantly claim that to destroy capitalist countries is all right, but to destroy socialism is a terrible crime.’”
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Wigner referred to estimates made by himself and others that only bet- ween 2 percent and 5 percent of the Soviet Union’s population would be vulnerable to a U.S. nuclear attack, while 45 percent of the U.S. population, could be hit. ow 4 z -In another telephone interview Gen. Keegan said there was not the
PENTAGON WARNS ON SOVIET CIVIL DEFENSE
By Henry S, Bradsher Washington Star Staff Writer The former head of the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency says the Soviet Union might “alter the strate- gic military relationship” with the United States by military efforts that include a large civil defense pro- gram. Lt. Gen. Samuel V. Wilson, who has since retired, told a congres-
CIA Director Stansfield Turner told the committee the Soviets do not presently “possess a civil defense capability that would enable them to feel that they could with reasonable expectation absorb a retaliatory strike at levels of damage that would be acceptable to them.”
But, Turner added, “the Soviet Union is making more progress and
dealt reassuringly only with the cur- rent situation.
NEITHER OFFICIAL'S testimony to the Joint Economic Committee, given secretly-last June and made public in edited form today, dealt with Soviet efforts to develop an‘anti- ballistic missile (ABM) defense sys- tem as part of the overall program that includes civil defense. Wilson noted, however, that civil defense
stirred increasing ter administratior cess in developing for a workable AB a system were de; tion of a Soviet-An could protect the’; some warheads Ic retaliatory attack.
With ABM cove system, by itself i:
= <7
Tunnel shelter und
>
sional committee: that the change could put the United States at a disadvantage by the mid-1980s.
was related to “various offensive and defensive measures.” A secret néw Pentagon study has
effort in civil defense today than is the United :Staagets While Wilson's concern was wil rthe future, Turner
wei 2 prote unimpeded missile
xc
PRESIDENT CARTER announced | s ast March »!
Moscow had agreed to discuss the possibility le of an agreement to curtail civil defense work as_ 0 part of disarmament efforts, But the Soviets have it: ae ri freed to get the talks going, and the P! nin ion has not yet deci i - Botiating position. , . peed Oe Ne Oth ne aa
people from nuclear attack The study is consi ! t < ; sider- ing whether this poreae needs a soders program.
Officials have described Carter as honi t Oping t the Soviets out of their program sn ae - hey
WASHINGTON STAR, front page, 1978 on Pentagon warning that Russian civil defense risks WWIII. Russia ignored Carter's request to ban shelters!
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TocyaapeTBeHHas KOpropallMsa 10 aTOMHOli 9HeprHun «PocaToM»
ATOMHbIii IpoekT CCCP
JIOKyMeHTBI M MaTepHalibl
Tlod o6weu pedaxuuet /1_J. Pabeea
Tom III BoyopoaHaa 6om0a 1945—1956
Kuura 2
CoctaButTesu: [.A. Touuapoe (ors. coctaputesb), 7.17. Maxcumenxo
BHMUNM
VNIEF Hayka * Dy3smarint
Mocksa — Capos 2009
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html
Boron filling
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Ne 56
Sanucka A.B. 3enbaosnya 4 A.J. Caxaposa 1O.b. Xapurony «O6 HcT0.1b30BaHHH H37e1HA 19 Here OOKaTHA cRepxH3fenHA PJLC-6C»
Zeldovich & Sakharov M map 1354 14 Jan 1954, Secret
(Ocoboii BaxkHocTH) Tosapniunty Xapurouy 10.5.
AO® cpepxn3nenusa HW OUeHOYHbIe pacuerbi ee AefictBus. [pHmenenue AO Gpuic npemioxeno B.A. TapyicHko.
coa Proposed by V.A. Daviden
=)
Ipesiaraemasi CHCTEMa COCTOHT K3 METHUINYECKOrO KOpIiyca Cina) PasWQIeHHOrC amadparmoit J Ha 1Ba NPHOAMSHTCAbHO PaBHbIX OObeMa. OOSUIMI Bec KOHCTPYKUHY oKono 26—30 ToHH.
(...)
B ogHoM oOneme Haxogutca n3yenMe A®, B apyrom — n3gemue C*, Maneana A
HC a 6opHoit 3anHBKOIE. (Boron fill i ng)
Tlepsstit mepHoa — pacnpoctpaveuve 3HeprHun M0 M3nenHI0 A — He paccmaTpH- BaeM,; B ITOM Mephose BHAavale SHEprHin 6omee wem HanoOOBHRY NpeAcTaBAseT cobor SHCPprHlo HAIYYCHHA H PacClipOCTPaHACTCA MO MCXaHH3My nyynctror TCILIONPOBOL HOCTH, OMHAKO K KOHLY MlepHosa ye BbIpabaTbipaeTca yiapHan BOJIHa, CKOPOCTI KOTOPOH CTAHOBUTCA GOMbUIe CKOpOCTH AMy3HN H3TyYeHHA.
(...)
Boron converts x-ray from fission stage A into shock wave, compressing thermonuclear stage
Apxun BHHH9®. ®, |, on. 3c, ea. xp. 35, a. 7 Pyxonuep 41.5, 3eapaopnya u Ai], Ca- xaposa. [1OJWIMHHMK.
McnonHeHo oT pyku B | 9k3. Ha 16 sMecTAX. Men. 3enbgosuy 4.6. 1 Caxapos A.J. Hleno No 4. 14/1. A. Caxapos
Maur. 9/10 on 14/T 54 r.
128
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Neo 183
Tipenposoguresbuas 3anucka E.T1. Caasckoro 8 pesuanym LIK KITCC ¢ NpeactapazenHem coobmeHHA NO pesy.bTaTaM HCnbITaHHA w3nenua PILC-37 Secret 24 Nov. 1955 report by E. P. 44 sos6ps 1955 r.
Slavsky to the Presidium of the CCCP Cos. cexpemuo on results of 1.6Mt RDS-37 test (OcoBoll saxtsocts) B Ilpesuauym UK KITICC
[peactapiaw nogpobvoe coobwenne T. 3abeHArMa HM ApyrHx Mo pesybratam McnbiTaHHs n3genMA PLC-37, noryyenHoe 23 HoxOpx 1955 roga.
Ipunoxenne: pykonucubiii MarepHan M6. ct-119lom Ha 4 ancTax. n/t E. Caasexuii
24 Hos6ps 1955 r. vex. cT-1398/1 Bepxo:! [Npunomxenue] B Npesmanym UK KNCC
22 Horbpa 1955 1. 8 9 yacos 47 MuKyT No MeCcTHOMy BpeMeHH Ha NonmroHe Ne 2 Munucrep- ctga oboponb! CCCP nponseegeno McnblTaHve SKCNeEpHMeHTANbHO BOGOpOgHO Gombbl HOBOr koHcTpykuvwn — PIC-37.
Vcnbitanve npowssoaunocs nytem cOpacbisanua GomOb! c camonerta Ty-16 c Bbicotb! 12 TbIC. MeTpoB.
Bom6a chpacbisanace c napaluioTOM, YTO AaNO BOIMOXHKOCTe YBENMYNTh BpeMA ee NaneHns c 55 qo 71 cekyHabl m yiTH Camonery Ha GesonacKoe pacctorHue.
B fekb vonbitaHné Sbina OGnayHaA noroga; BbICOTa HHwKHeEA Kpomxw OGnakoB Beina Gonee AByX KANOMeTPOB.
Bapbis npowsowen Ka BbicoTe 1550 metpos, u Gnaroqapr 3Tomy OrHeHHbI Wap xOpowo Hanioqancs, noka He NoAKANGA 3a OGnaka,
Camonetbi NONHOCTbH paspyWeHb!l Ha paccTOAHKM Ao 5000 MeTpos, TaHKW CHNbHO No- BpexKAeHb! Ha paccronHuu go 2000 merTpos, aprunnepva Nony4una Noskble paspyWeHHA Ha Pac- CTORHMM AO 3000 meTpos.
On 22 Nov. 1955 at 9.47am an RDS-37 was dropped by a Tu-16 flying at 12km altitude.
Parachute delivery gave time for the plane to escape to a safe distance before detonation.
Detonation occurred at 1.55km altitude. Severe
damage occurred out to 5 km for planes, 2 km for tanks and 3 km for field artillery.
Comparison of U238(n,2n)U237
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Ne 190
Tlocranopaenue CM CCCP Ne 46-31cc © pe3yabTatax HcnbITaHHA H3lemHi PJIC-27 nu PJIC-37, CepHiiHom npou3BoacTse H3genHA PJLC-27, paspadoTke H W3FOTOBICHHH H3/eIHii Ha NPHANMNe aTOMHOTO OOxKATHS! Jan. 195€ ° ROr
r. Mocksa, Kpemab 5 sHBaps | jocmu
USSR Council of Ministers on RDS2? RF 3r7
Coset Munuctpos CCCP ormeuaer, sTo mponeseHHoe McnbITaHHe HamennA P/C-27 H OCHOBaHHOrO Ha NpHHuWNAaX AO usgerns PAC-37 dao NOAOKUTCAbHbIC Pesyib- TATbI M OTKPbIBAeT ROIMOXHOCTH 3HAYHTEABHOTO YBEAMYEHHA MOUIKOCTH HanenHit [IPH OLHOBPEMCHHOM COKpalllcHHH PacXOla GMOMHbIX BIPbIBYATHIX BELLUCCTB,
Coset Munuctpos CCCP MOCTAHOBJIAET:
1, OOa3aTb MuHucTepeTBO cpeqHeroO MallMHOCTpOeHHA:
a) MPHCTYIMTS K H3POTOBICHMIO H3LeHii, OCHOBAHHBIX Ha NpHHuMNe AO, 4 u3r0- ToBNTb B 1956 r. /0 waneanit MouHOcTEO 1,7—1,9 Man TH 10 waneaHit MOMIHOCTBIO 0.5 sutH T. B 1956 r. mourorosHTb Npov3BOACTBO Ha BbINycK B TeYeHHe 1956-1960 rr. B HECKOJBKO pa3 GOAINE MOULHBIX M3feTHI, YeM HaMewaqOck paHee;
Orders: 10 bombs of 1.7-1.9Mt yield and 10 bombs of 0.5 Mt yield stockpiled for 1956. 6) opraHH3osaTb B 1956 r. cepHitHoe u3roToBAeHHe u3genMit PAC-27, Order: manufacture (serial production) RDS2 B) pa3paboTaTs H H3TOTOBHTb M3iemMe Ha MpHHuMTe AO moutHocthO 20-30 MaH T
secom 20-26 T M nogroToBvTb ucribitaHve ero B J// ks. 1956 r. Ha Hoeoli Jemae c camoneta M-4 c mpumMeHeHHem mapauiroma;
Order: make a 20-30 Mt bomb with a mass of 20-26 tons for air drop testing on Novaya Zemlya using an M-4 aircraft and a parachute.
Page 326:
production by 14.1 MeV neutrons Tq64yyq OMHOCUMEADBHDIX BbIXC
in 1953 Russian and 1954 USA tests
Castle-Bravo
Cee TT SA i
Castle-Romeo
JlaTa B3pbIBa Castle-Yankee
4.V 54r. 1,23 2 0,2
26.11 54 r.
NOTE: Zr-95 abundances are indicative of unfractionated fission produc American work that Zr-95 doesn't fractionate significantly, relative to U-
ABOVE: in 2009, the Russians declassified and published a book containing some original reports on the design and testing of two-stage nuclear weapons from 1954-1956, including 1956 designs for 150 and 1000 megaton bombs using either natural lithium deuteride (7.42%
lithitum-6 abundance) or enriched lithium-6 deuteride (the enriched 150 megaton bomb has 100 tons i.e. 1.5 Mt/ton yield to mass ratio, but
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the unenriched one has 500 tons mass, i.e. 0.3 Mt/ton ratio). However, for that year they ordered production of just ten 1.8 megaton yield bombs and another ten 0.5 megaton bombs. They also ordered a 20-30 megaton bomb with a yield of 20-26 tons (i.e. a yield-to-mass ratio of around 1 Mt/ton) for air burst testing. The 14 January 1954 original design paper by Sakharov and Zeldovich attributes the two-stage idea to Davidenko, but it proposes using a boron filling to convert all of the x-rays from the fission primary into a shock wave to compress the fusion stage. Later, on 9 December 1954, another paper by Sakharov and Frank-Kamenetsky works out the details of a specific design: a 15 ton bomb yielding 7.5 megatons which produces a 10 fold compression of the density of the low density fusion fuel inside a spherical, dense (uranium) pusher-tamper. This was a pathetic 0.5 megaton/ton yield-to-mass ratio. It was only through the efforts of Yuri Trutnev (see quotations from him, later below in this blog posting) that the efficiency of the design was massively improved, firstly by changing the boron case filling into a spherical layer surrounding the fusion fuel to absorb case-channelled x-rays and convert them into an inward shock wave to compress the fusion fuel only (not a shock wave from a general case filling that will act in all directions, and blast
the bomb apart rapidly).
In their Livermore paper UCRL-74116 (PDF linked here on the IAEA server and here on the US Government's OSTI server), Nuckolls, Wood, Thiessen, and Zimmerman explain: "... the optimum pulse shape is determined by considerations of entropy and Fermi- degeneracy, hydrodynamics and Raylelgh-Taylor instability, and thermonuclear ignition and self-heating. The required implosion symmetry is achieved by irradiating ... from all sides ... as well as by electron transport in the atmosphere ablated from the pellet. Taylor instability is suppressed by sufficiently rapid imploclon as well as by generating the implosion pressure by subsonic ablation driven by diffusive electron transport. ... These hot electrons transport throughout the atmosphere heating electrons (via electron-electron collisions)
to temperatures which increase from one to 10 Kev. The pellet surface is heated and ablated by the hot atmosphere, generating pressures
which optimally increase from 10° to 10!! atmospheres." This paper adds that "hundreds of implosion/burn computer calculations" were used to identify the optimal Lagrangian implosion pressure-time history equation, and then that equation was used to identify the optimum input x-ray energy pulse shape needed to achieve the optimal Lagrangian for the most efficient thermonuclear fusion. The rate of supply of X-rays from the fission primary stage (or laser in clean burns) is then controlled by the design of the latter and by plastic foam baffles which deliver the X-rays to the fusion capsule. (There is a discussion in Livermore's UCRL-LR-105821-97-1 (pp. 22 et seq.) of low density foam shells such as aerogels for fusion capsules.) Another Livermore report, UCRL-80164, on Exploding Pusher Performance by Rosen and Nuckolls explains that denser pushers work by exploding, with half the mass of the pusher explosing outwards and the remainder imploding inwards and compressing the capsule: "The imploding half of the shell acts as a piston, driving a shock through the DT that principally heats the ions. ... Whereas the high-compression, isentropic implosion targets are sensitive to electron preheat and to Rayleigh-Taylor instability, exploding pushers, by virtue of their rapid thermal wave early heating and by their non-ablative implosion dynamics, are not sensitive to the aforementioned problems." (This paper cites Nuckolls' Secret-Restricted Data UCRL-50000 71-5, 1971,
as reference 1.)
On the subject of x-rays and plastic foam: Glasstone and Dolan's 1977 Effects of Nuclear Weapons, paragraph 7.79 on pages 307-8 states that for a typical nuclear explosion reaching 10,000,000 K temperature, i.e. very soft 4.3 keV predominant x-ray energy (considerably lower energy than medical x-rays which are often well over 50 keV), the mean free path in sea level air is only 15 cm, so that 90% are absorbed within I foot of sea level air. Clearly, therefore, sea level air will stop these x-rays from ablating surfaces of a secondary stage more than a foot or two from the primary stage. Howard Morland, Richard Rhodes and Chuck Hansen don't mention this problem for the 1952 Mike design. Was there a vacuum pump to clear the "radiation channel" of the sea-level air that will stop or seriously attenuate virtually all the x-rays? Or is the presence of air in the radiation channel used to diffuse the x-rays in all directions to a uniform concentration, allowing isotropic (similar from all directions) ablation of the secondary? Howard Morland, Richard Rhodes, and a British AWE Aldermaston paper in Nature on the "Science of Nuclear Warheads" (linked and quoted later, below) all refer to polystyrene in nuclear weapons, a plastic with approximately the density of water, i.e. over 700 times denser than air, thus cutting the
mean free path of 4.3 keV x-rays to just 0.2mm! So any significant thickness (over Imm for example) of polystyrene will completely absorb the soft x-rays from a primary stage heating the surface of the polystyrene, although re-radiation can occur from the heated surface, which behaves like a diffuse or Lambertian reflector, i.e. Teller's "radiation mirror" in the title of his and Ulam's famouse 1951 report, On
Heterocatalytic Detonations I: Hydrodynamic Lenses and Radiation Mirrors.
If you fill the entire radiation case with polystyrene, however, you get a partition of energy between the kinetic energy of the colliding carbon and hydrogen ions and electrons (plasma) from the heated polystyrene, and x-ray energy which is being produced and absorbed by that ionized plasma. The percentage distribution of energy partitioned between matter and x-ray radiation is a sensitive function of the temperature, the energy in matter being directly proportional to the temperature, while the energy in x-rays is proportional to the fourth-
power of temperature (see for instance: H. L. Brode, Annual Review of Nuclear Science, v18, 1968, pages 153-202). For "cold" 1 keV x-
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. rays (2,300,000 K) a large percentage of the energy is in the material plasma, but for "hot" 10 keV x-rays (23,000,000 K), most of the
energy is in x-rays even within the plasma. The exact x-ray temperature emerging from the primary stage is a function of the shielding of that stage by hydrocarbon plasma from the chemical implosive system used to compress the primary stage core, and the beryllium neutron reflector. If the primary stage is a 2-point implosion elongated or egg shape, much hotter (higher energy) x-rays will emerge from the smaller-diameter sides which have less shielding than the long axis. For very low energy x-rays from older spherical primary stages, lower density foams (Seabreeze and Fogbank have very low densities, closer that of air than polystyrene) are used to keep more of the
case filled energy in x-ray energy than in the material plasma (ions and electrons), than is the case for polystyrene.
Any such material filling the radiation channel will slow the transit of x-ray energy by diffusing it, which allows more time for neutrons from the primary to arrive and begin to fission (predetonate) any fissile material present in the secondary stage (this is not the case for a clean secondary stage, where those neutrons are actually needed to fission lithium to yield tritium, prior to implosion). Since force is the rate of change of momentum, F = dp/dt, it is undesirable to fill the radiation channel with anything, if you want to maximise the x-ray ablative recoil force on the secondary stage! But do you really want to maximise that impulsive force? Is maximum impulsive force the best way to achieve the greatest amount of secondary stage compression? It turns out, it simply isn't. This was discovered by Nuckolls in the late 1950s and proved in the very clean Ripple nuclear tests during Dominic in 1962. The maximum impulsive compression is given by using a vacuum radiation channel and using the approximately 10 ns width pulse of x-rays from the primary stage to ablate a dense metal
pusher on the surface of the secondary stage. But against this factor, you must consider:
(1) the problem of how to diffuse those x-rays uniformly all around the secondary stage (easy with a foam filling, even for a spherical shaped secondary stage), and
(2) the problem that maximising the ablative force as an abrupt, impulsive shock wave through a dense pusher increases entropy, heating the pusher, whereas a gentler, more nearly isentropic rate of delivery of energy keeps more of the applied energy in the compression of the secondary stage, rather than in heating the pusher. It actually makes no sense, Nuckolls discovered in 1961, to waste any of the limited amount of energy from the primary stage on heating up the secondary stage's pusher by using inefficient, entropy increasing shock
compression.
There is confusion possible here over Theodore Taylor's levitated primary stage analogy of swinging a hammer to hit a nail, rather than placing the hammer on the nail and pushing it gently. But this is an illusion caused by the threshold force needed to push a nail into wood: you would not use a hammer blow to push a tin-tack into a cork notice board to hold the corner of a poster to the wall! The hammer is needed for the nail in order to integrate muscle power for a second or so, into kinetic energy of the hammer. You don't have enough power in your arm to drive the nail in by simply pushing the nail into the wood. By analogy, the kilograms of chemical explosive in the primary stage lack the power to directly compress the metal shell to a maximum density, just as your arm can't directly (without the power- integrating mechanism of the swing of the hammer) push a nail into hard wood. In the primary stage, chemical explosives are assisted by having pit levitation, so that the chemical implosion can deliver power into the pusher for a period of time, to give it as much kinetic energy as possible before it hits the hard-to-compress core. Otherwise, the mismatch of acoustic impediance of the low density (carbon and hydrogen ion) explosion debris pushing at the metal pit causes the pit to reflect the energy back, rather than absorb it and be
compressed.
This is simply conservation of momentum: throw a thousand footballs at a wall with low energy, one after another, the footballs will bounce off, with minimal energy delivery to the wall and thus minimal compression or net motion of the wall. It's almost an elastic collision; the low density footballs bounce off the wall with almost the same kinetic energy as they struck it! But if you deliver the same energy as a single iron cannon ball, collision is less elastic and more energy is coupled into the wall! This is more useful for pushing the wall. This is not secret or highly sophisticated mathematical physics, but simply the kind of common sense we all have from experience in the real world. So with the larger amount of x-ray energy from the primary stage, the situation is not like trying to push a nail into hard wood (as for the smaller energy from 20 kg of TNT to compress a metal shell) or to knock a wall down using footballs, but is more like the tin-tack being pushed into cork. Provided that your x-ray ablator (say beryllium) is of relatively similar density to the lithium deuteride fusion fuel you are trying to compress, there is little acoustic mismatch and energy is then coupled efficiently rather than reflected. So you are in the situation of being able to push a tin-tack into cork, rather than having to swing a hammer blow on a nail. If there is a dense
fissile "spark plug" in the centre of the fusion stage, it can be levitated to ensure it is delivered a hammer blow by a dense pusher shell.
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R-7
2 Mt R-7 ICI thermonucl weighing 2.
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ABOVE: Secret 1956 USSR order to equip their 8000 km range R-7 ICBM with their 2 megaton warhead with 2900 kg mass (the warhead mass quoted is the important secret, since it is the payload for the missile, and was previously secret), based on their 1.6 megaton 22 November 1955 test at Semipalatinsk. This report states that their previous 400 kt tested yield 1953 hydrogen bomb design (Teller's externally-pit-boosted or single-stage Alarm Clock RDS-6s) would require a mass of 3400 kg to yield 1.5 megatons, so the lighter new two-stage design increased the R-7 missile range by 200-300 km. That was the only megaton range test at Semipalatinsk because further high yield tests there were banned after it destroyed the local meat processing factory. Yuri A. Trutnev (First Deputy Scientific Director of RFNC-VNIIEF) explains how a 500 kt yield limit was imposed on Semipalatinsk after the 1955 test of 1.6 megatons caused damage: "it was recommended to put into service a certain [double-primary] version of the product. And so, one of the products was delivered to the Semipalatinsk test site for testing, a product developed under the guidance of Evgeny Ivanovich Zababakhin. He claimed that the power of the explosion would be on the order of 0.5-0.6 megatons. I note that at that time there was a ban on carrying out explosions with a capacity of more than 0.5, because as a result of an explosion with a capacity of 1.5 megatons, the Semipalatinsk meat processing plant was destroyed. And here we are, no weather, nothing to do, I decided to read the reports. I took Zababakhin's report, I compare the calculations with ours, and I see: yes, there is not 0.5, not 0.9, all 1.5 megatons should work out there! I could be silent, but if 1.5 megatons will again “destroy” the meat processing plant? At one of the meetings, I reported this to the test leader. As Zababakhin fell on me: “This is a disgrace, this is not the case, this is ugly! You specifically say to remove our bomb from the tests. Honest people don't do that!" I suggested: "Let's see together." He did not look at anything, slammed the door and left. And it's good that they didn't try it! Because the next year in the north we blew up our version of the product and received about 0.6-0.8 megatons. On the occasion of our success, they poured me a glass of cognac: “For the victory!” It is noteworthy that it was February 23, 1958, the day of the Red Army. In the same year, 1958, we began to prepare the next session on the basis of the 49th project. There were attempts to delay the tests, and the ministry had no desire to test products of lower power. ... And they tried it, and everything worked out. This development subsequently became the most important basis for
improving the thermonuclear arsenal of our country." In addition to moving to double-primary theormonuclear weapon design, they
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also finally conducted their first ever gaseous tritium and deuterium boosted plutonium pit primary stage test on 28 December 1957,
yielding an "amazing" 12 kt (below).
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VS
First tritium and deuterium gas boosted plutonium primary stage
gave "amazing" 12 kt,
(28 December 1957! saline,
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
! I gt ———
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How elongated fusion stages are compressed into spheres for maximum fusion efficiency by anisotropic x-ray delivery
RUSSIAN's >99% CLEAN NUCLEAR WEAPON DESIGN
Inspection hatch open in 1961 film
Parachute system
H-bomb Sphere of Li6 in lead H-bomb
Main fusion stage
Very clean long pipe device for peaceful uses (for insertion into ne
ABOVE: how to uniformly compress a secondary fusion stage using x-rays without problems from the reduced x-ray intensity on the side of the secondary which is furthest from the primary stage (due to the "x-ray shadow" created by self-shielding on the secondary's far-side from the fission primary stage, by x-ray shielding due to the presence of the secondary stage itself). This problem has several possible
solutions which are discussed in detail later in this post, including quotations from the actual Russian nuclear weapons designers articles
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and declassified reports. On April 10 and 16, 1957, Russia tested shaped new, improved two-stage thermonuclear designs, yielding 680 and 320 kt, respectively. The final R-7 warhead design, RDS-46A, was proof-tested on October 6, 1957, yielding 2.9 megatons. (Since elongated secondary aka thermonuclear stages become spheres when subjected to linear implosion from two primaries, or two two-stage thermonuclear devices as in the 50 megatons Tsar Bomba and lower yield cleaner devices, and since pear or egg shaped secondary stages become spheres when properly compressed by the anisotropic x-ray exposure from a single primary in devices without foam equalizers filling the case, we will generally depict secondaries as being spheres later in this post; even when they are elongated prior to compression.) It turns out that the first Russian two-stage device tested in late 1955 with 1.6 megatons yield (it was designed to give 1 megaton) had a secondary stage which was a sphere when compressed (it may however have been egg or pear shaped prior to compression, as shown above, in order to allow for the anisotropy of x-ray delivery to a spherically-compressed secondary stage when using a single primary, without the use of a foam filling to disperse x-rays to a uniform energy density throughout the case). The designer testimony (Yuri Trutnev) states that the secondary stage used in 1955 had a /ow-density ablative material layer (e.g. beryllium metal, or
plastic foam) around it (not filling the entire radiation case, unlike Western designs with spherical secondary stages).
Yuri Trutnev: "J knew that when they explode, a lot of energy comes out in the form of x-rays. And I began to think about how to make it so that the thermonuclear charge is overlaid with a light substance - "coating", these can be chemical elements with a low number, having very good thermal conductivity, and with the help of X-ray radiation from the explosion of the primary atomic charge "coating" heat up. At the same time, its substance would evaporate outward, towards the radiation, and as a result, as during the movement of a rocket, a reactive impulse would be created, directed into the secondary charge and creating the pressure necessary for effective compression of the thermonuclear "fuel"." (The day after seeing that successful 1955 test, Yuri Trutnev told his colleague Yuri Nikolaevich Babaev another idea, the idea for using two primaries, one on each side of the secondary stage, which was assigned product number 49, weaponised by the deputy director of the lab, and air drop tested on February 23, 1958, becoming the basis for today's cheap thermonuclar warheads made by Russia; all of this will be discussed later in detail in this blog post, since .) This would have caused a far gentler (slower) compression of the secondary stage than when using a dense U238 or lead ablator, thus increasing what Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory weaponeer Nuckolls calls "approximately isentropic" (unchanged entropy) shock compression, which is more efficient since more of the compression energy remains in compressive mechanical work, rather than being turned into heat energy (you want the secondary stage to be as compressed as much as possible without wasting that energy as heat; heat is generated by fission in the compressed oralloy layer or the spark plug core of the secondary stage, or in clean secondary stages, in fusion of D+T gas in the core, following its extreme, isentropic compression, as used by Russia from 1965 for more efficient
thermonuclear weapons).
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
= Emad Ramp = isentropic.
60
$ 1 g 40 a DOE (b)(3) 4 - 2 . 2c 1¢
—_- A
Figure 24: Left: the use of pulse shaping on NIF to produce either shock compression
or ramp compression. DOE (b\(3)
DOE (b)(3)
initially shock compress Pu and then drive it isentropically in a way similar to the EEE anna
environment experienced by a Pu particle in an imploding primary. The concept is
shown graphically in Figure 24. Of course, the actual design of the appropriate pulse shape requires careful measurements but the initial experience with the NIF laser is
encouraging. It has been repeatedly demonstrated that one can “program” a pulse of
a given shape and the laser produces the desired pulse with impressive repeatability.
Questions have arisen regarding the accuracy of the measurements that will be achieved, and the extent to which ramp compression will be possible. For example it may not be possible to maintain isentropic compression at very high pressures without suffering formation of a shock in the material. This will require further investigation. On the other hand, the recent work on diamond to 50 Mbar and Ta to 6 Mbar is encouraging. In Figure 25 we show results from explorations of the Ta EOS on several
platforms. The results shown correspond to isentropic compression As can be seen
the new NIF data are in good agreement with previous data from the Omega laser
and are also in agreement with data obtained on the Z pulsed power platform at SNL.
The results are the highest pressure off-Hugoniot data achieved to date.
Figure 25: Measurem forms.
No Pu experime! require work to ensur have been voiced that material which typicé differing isotopic con Pu samples on NIF a However, in our view of fundamental meas
(both with and with
theoretical approach —SS=SS=_—=
Ultimately, of course,
grade material and t
We next discuss at high pressure. R investigate various s is aimed at a gold
impactor which beco
=
Pages 72-3 and Fig 26 on p7 show how "X-rays drive a pl: ‘hammer’ that quasi- isentropically compresses tl target", the target "anvil" be beryllium-coated rippled- . interface plutonium Figu
Hydrodynamic and Nuclear Experiments (U)
gartmnent of Energy Deciassifcation Re:
November 2011
JSR-11-340
JSI-2011-027 Copy Cl
ABOVE: the Russian 1955 thermonuclear weapon with a low density ablator is similar to a system described for evaluation purposes in a declassified 2011 Jason report, Hydrodynamic and Nuclear Experiments (JSR-11-340, Secret-Restricted Data before deletions such as the
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. deletion shown above) on pages 72-3 compares the shock compression versus the isentropic compression of beryllium coated plutonium pits in nuclear weapons by different shapes of x-ray energy pulse. It notes on page 21: "The National Ignition Facility [NIF] utilizes laser drive to compress samples using shock or quasi-isentropic compression [Emphasis added], potentially to in excess of 100 Mbar. Currently, samples have been ramp compressed to 50 Mbar. It can also be used to explore high strain rates (up to 107 /s). It has not yet been qualified to handle Pu, but has provided important data on surrogates such as Ta." Shock compression is an abrupt hammer-blow produced by a fast-rising, brief pulse of x-ray energy, whereas the less abruptly rising pulse of isentropic compression is a reversible adiabatic pressure wave such as sound waves, which for high energy densities must be produced by a more gradually ramping, longer pulse of increasing energy density; this increases the proportion of the energy in kinetic energy of particles (dynamic pressure) rather than in internal energy (overpressure and heating). Pure isentropic compression would violate thermodynamic physics, but quasi-isentropic compression is possible. A simple analogy is hitting a door with a hammer blow, versus gently pushing a door closed. Hitting the door wastes some energy in sound waves, oscillations, and heating, causing a large, abrupt and wasteful rise in the entropy of the system, whereas a gentle push maximises the fraction of delivered energy which goes into kinetic energy of motion of the door causing it to pick up momentum efficiently and swing in the desired direction, minimising the energy wasted as sound, oscillations and heating. For a gas, isentropic flow
does not imply that temperature is constant, only that entropy is constant:
Change in entropy,
AS = nC, In(T/T,) + nRin(V/V,
Hence, for isentropic compression (no change entropy):
AS =0
Therefore: C,In(T/T,) = —Rin(V/V,
ABOVE:We can get rid of the natural logarithms in this isentropic solution, C,Jn (T/T9) =-R In (V/V9), by raising both sides to
become powers of the base, e, thus: 7/Tg = (V/V9) exp(-R/C,) = (V/Vq) exp(1 - gamma). Nuckolls et al provide the idealized equation
for the x-ray delivery rate of energy required for isentropic compression of the secondary (fusion) stage in nuclear explosives, in a
“1.875 where the 1.875 is from 3{gamma}/{gamma +
paper openly pubished in Nature, v239, p139, 1972 (extract is linked here): (1 - t) 1} = 15/8, gamma being the ratio of the specific heat capacity at constant pressure to that at constant volume, for dense hydrogen with degenerate electrons (where gamma = 5/3), and t is time measured in units where | unit of time is the time taken for the shock wave to reach the centre of the secondary stage. You can't ever achieve this idealized isentropic energy rate, but you can do your best (any movement of the curve from an abrupt shock to a gentler rise increases the isentropic conpression contribution relative to shock compression, so it is not true that you need a "perfect" fit to the idealized isentropic pulse delivery curve, which approaches infinity in the asymptotic end limit anyway!), and Dr John Nuckolls successfully proof tested this "Ripple" concept with multimegaton 99% clean atmospheric nuclear tests during Operation Dominic in 1962, which will be discussed in detail later. The quasi-isentropic compression in the 1955 Russian thermonuclear test with a low-density x-ray ablator rather than the high-density ablators used by America, may account for the fact the yield was 60% greater than predicted (presumably the prediction ignored isentropic compression): 1.6 megatons measured,
versus 1.0 megaton prediction. Since the Russians did not use tritium plus deuterium gas in the core of their secondary stage in 1955, the
contribution of isentropic compression was probably marginal, but the low-density ablator would have come into its own when Russia
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placed deuterium plus tritium gas into the core of the fusion charge in their 27 October 1966 test, yielding 700 kt. Russian has always
prided itself on over-educating its population in advanced physics (poster below).
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er ae
POGBEWEHHE 17
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ak \
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Compared: Schools in the USSR and the USA. Moscow, 1955
Our point here is just that the Russians seem to have replicated the TWO key features of the isentropic Ripple design (a low density ablator to replace a dense ablator, and T+D gas in the core of the fusion charge) and compressed these into smaller devices for MIRV warheads (an approach rejected by the USA, despite its rhetorical use to attack Russian competence, by AEC Chairman and plutonium discoverer Glenn T. Seaborg in a tape-recorded secret response to President Kennedy's question of what Russian nuclear warhead designers would make of the secrets of the American thermonuclear warheads; this issue will be discussed further, later in this blog post). Isentropic compression nuclear warhead design details were declassified because of its alleged relevance to "clean nuclear fusion power" pipe dreams. In reality, this is purely clean nuclear weapons research, because to make it efficiently generate electric power you'd need to be setting off hnge H-bombs regularly to generate significant heat to justify the expense! The declassified 1955 two- stage Russian thermonuclear case design was called by the Russians "pear-shaped", possibly due to the fact that a pear-shaped secondary stage, when compressed by the anisotropic x-ray environment produced by a single fission primary stage, becomes an ideal sphere with maximum fusion burn efficiency (above) for that single primary design (without a foam x-ray diffusive equalizer, which slows down the x- ray ablative secondary stage coupling mechanism, thus increasing the number of neutrons that arrive in the secondary stage prior to full compression, leading to the need for a neutron shielding interstage to prevent pre-detonation of an oralloy loaded secondary). There is also a relevant 1975 US patent, "Foam encapsulated targets", US4376752, by nuclear weapons designer John H. Nuckolls (who has explained elsewhere, as we will quote below in this post, how such research led to four successful isentropically compressed, very clean megaton tests during 1962, authorised by Kennedy) and two others which states: "'... a quantity of thermonuclear fuel is embedded in low density, microcellular foam which serves as an electron conduction channel for symmetrical implosion of the fuel
wn"),
Nuckolls explains the physics of spherical stage thermonuclear burn efficiency beautifully in his 1973 report UCRL-74345: "The rates of burn, energy deposition by charged reaction products, and electron-ion heating are proportional to the density, and the inertial confinement time is proportional to the radius. ... The burn efficiency is proportional to the product of the burn rate and the inertial confinement time ... Much higher pressures are required if the electrons in the high density DT are not Fermi-degenerate, i.e. if the implosion is not essentially isentropic. The pressures applied to implode the pellet must be uniform spatially and temporally to less than one part in twenty in order to preserve effective spherical symmetry. ... The hydrodynamlc Rayleigh-Taylor Instability must be controlled. Otherwise the pellet surface cannot be relatively gradually accelerated during the implosion as required by the optimum pulse shape." Nuckolls also states on page 15 that most of the energy supplied to the fusion capsule is lost in the ablation process (the hot blow off material has the velocity of sound for the heated surface temperature) so that only a coupling efficiency (i.e. the fraction of supplied x-ray energy that results in implosive compression of the secondary state) of 2-15% is available to compress the fuel; this coupling efficiency is given by the very simple equation: (1/2)v/C, where v ~ 10-300 km/s, is the fusion capsule implosion velocity, and C ~ 200-1000 km/s, is the velocity of sound for
the blown-off plasma.
ABOVE: the American problem with discarding the
There are issue: design shown
on the left: e.9., 4 fissile spark evlinder (or U235
1962 isentropic breakthrough and instead using an
expensive highly-enriched U235 aka "oralloy" ablative
ake oralloy pusher)
can't be
mude arbitrarily
tang without
becoming critical. 2 = . a r Neutron shielding rings separate fissite 0235 oratiay rings Capsule in the secondary stage of classic cylindrical
"pusher" (external spark plug around the fusion fuel
shaped American two-stage devices), to increase the yield-to-mass ratio for compact nuclear weapons like the B61 and its alleged smaller derivative the W80, is the critical mass of the oralloy pusher. You can't put a whole load of U235 concentrated in the bomb's secondary stage to give a huge yield, or it is critical (and you have a nuclear reactor, not a bomb!). One solution to this critical mass issue in secondary stages, particularly for cylindrical secondary stages, is for relatively small rings of oralloy to be separated by larger diameter neutron absorbing "washers" of, say uranium-238 or possibly lithium deuteride (above right; oralloy is colored blue, U238 washers are white), as suggested by the declassified nuclear weapons film, Developing and Producing the B-61 (see 10 minutes, 7 seconds into the video - screenshot below - where the B61's entire secondary stage assembly is seen undergoing "criticality studies of the nuclear assembly", and compared to 12 minutes 21 seconds where the partial assembly components of both pit and secondary stage are displayed). This film also shows an axial rod through the centre of the secondary stage and an x-ray baffle separator in the middle of the secondary stage, which we will ignore for the present. Teller's original "sausage" secondary concept was for a series of secondary stages connected like sausages, x-ray irradiated and imploded one at a time, with baffles separating them, because if there was just one very long cylinder, the axial fissile spark in will be initially compressed properly only near the primary, and then will pre-detonate itself along the remainder of the spark plug
before the remainder of the secondary has been compressed (the x-rays may go a light velocity in a vacuum, but the compression
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of the secondary, whether by shock or isentropic, is much slower!). Details of the axial central rod through the B61 secondary
stage are shown below, in stills from the same declassified film.
re
—
Wi Hh
View of the axial rod running through B61 bomb, as seen in declassified 1
oe)
f I doa #
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-_
, lightweight
ll
© feqnelideeteneeemsnesises
The rings in the second: the right of the central ) RIGHT: central axial rod B61-4 trainer (similar yie
-_ So
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Declassified U.S. Nuele ast Filmma#72
Declas “Devel,
The alternating rings along the secondary stage in this design makes the surface area of the secondary stage rippled, a concept that increases its surface area for absorption of x-rays, which was the original motivation for Teller's ambitious but failed 1954 Morgenstein (spiked secondary stage Operation Castle shot 3) nuclear test at Bikini Atoll. Even excluding the issue with computing and achieving the geometry of isotropic compression of a sphere by radiation from a single primary, Teller at first did not want the spherical secondary stage (used by Russia in 1955) in American nuclear weapons, because the soft 1-10 keV x-rays that couple energy between stages are absorbed in a very thin surface layer of the secondary, so the surface area of the secondary stage is crucial, and is minimised (not maximised) for a spherical shape. This means that, because a sphere mathematically has the MINIMUM surface area to volume ratio of any shape, a sphere absorbs the MINIMUM possible fraction of the x-rays from the primary stage. So the sphere is the WORST design possible, if you want to maximise the coupling of x-rays to the secondary stage. This is not speculative or a matter of secret computer designs of classified weaponry: it is very simple mathematically for a kid to prove that far more x-ray energy will be absorbed by the inside of the weapon casing than on the outer surface of a spherical secondary stage. Teller's Livermore laboratory, however, even in 1954 at the Morgenstein test of Castle, tried to get around this problem of the small surface area absorption of soft x-rays by the surface of a sphere, by hugely increasing the surface area of the "sphere" by making its surface "spiked" or convoluted so it will absorb a larger fraction of the x-ray energy from the primary stage. This may also improve the stability of axial compression in a cylindrical secondary stage, where (unlike early designs like Mike in 1952) a very small primary (5 kt unboosted or 10 kt boosted) is used to axially compress just a very small part
of the secondary stage near the primary stage in an x-ray radiation channel confined by a seabreeze x-ray baffle foam.
In the Mike "sausage" and other earlier Castle nuclear designs, x-ray baffling foam was not used in this way to fill most of the case and create a radiation channel confining the initial fusion burn region, but was just used as Teller's "x-ray mirror" (a layer of plastic hammered
on the the lead lining of the steel case with nails, to reflect some x-ray energy back on the secondary stage, and to prevent high-Z lead
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Declassified*W'S"Nuclear Test Film #72
*
age cylina tial
> Ppl 99912217 26:34
ablation debris quickly filling the radiation channel and killing the coupling). So it appears the Mike "sausage" design required a larger yield primary stage to compress the entire clyinder, whereas the use of x-ray attenuating foam to limit initial exposure of the secondary stage to a few rings near the primary, reduces the size of the required primary. Once the fusion burn begins in a limited part of the secondary, it releases x-rays which then help to compress and ignite fusion in the remainder (this is the brains of the American secondary design, requiring very sophisticated computer modelling as well as back-up nuclear testing to verify them). A declassified film of the B61 shows the secondary stage of the B61 (and presumably its scaled down version, the W80) being tested, a rippled cylinder with rounded
shielding end caps (below). This appears to be an entirely different concept to Russian nuclear warhead design.
Another option, which the Russians first tested very successfully in 1958, is to simply put two smaller fission primary stages into a radiation case, one on each opposite side of the fusion capsule, as shown below, with the two sets of neutron initiator tubes and detonators,
corrected in parallel circuits - there is a delay between conventional explosives and neutron guns firing to allow for the time it takes to
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ompress the fissile cores - via high-current, fast
B617W86-pipand seconda stage parts* *~
acuum tube switches called krytrons. However, Britain and America (for reasons discussed later,
’ te . below) completely ignored this possibility, and the American Los Alamos nuclear weapons designer of devices Scorpion, Hamlet, Viper, Davy Crockett and
King, Dr Theodore Taylor, dismissed the key Russian
> mu en
U.S. Nuclear Foot Ftm £72) Deciassified US. Niiliintest Filmagz
ee double-primary thermonuclear warhead design when presented with it by author John McPhee: "’The shape tells you a lot about H-bomb design,' Taylor said again. 'But not enough.' I drew a sketch of a iydrogen bomb showing a cylinder full of thermonuclear fuel, with two fission bombs, one at each end... he said, 'Nice try, but that is not what happens'." (This quote from J. McPhee, The Curve of Binding Energy, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, NY, 1974, p149. This dismissive error was then repeated again in response to Chuck Hansen's 27 August 1979 letter to Senator Charles Percy of Illinois, which contained the diagram shown below, which Howard Morland dismisses incorrectly in his book, The secret that Exploded. This casual dismissal of double primary designs may well mean American efforts to deduce Russian nuclear weapon design from fallout samples by analogy to the designs America tested in the past, were plain wrong. Certainly, Russia tested two-stage, single-primary weapons; but their most compact
efficient designs are provably double-primary for 0.1-1 megaton yields and use two thermonuclear stages for both cleaner and 1-100
megaton-yield fusion tertiary stages.)
On 23 February 1958, Russia
Sl a am A RCT (AAS Fa A SN MAT SA Ha a a eT “, . fusion fuel © °°;
' 4 en oy
} tested the new, radical Babaev-
Trutnev compact design of
thermonuclear weapon (above;
detailed documentary evidence from multiple sources is provided later in this post), a
fission triggers ——
pipe containing a spherical
H-B OMB CRO S S SECTION fusion stage sandwiched
between two fission (primary) implosion charges, wired in Ch uck Ha nsen, 1 9 /? letter to Percy parallel circuit for simultaneous
firing via a krytron high speed, high current vacuum tube switch. This was a relatively small diameter 860 kiloton deliverable thermonuclear weapon, weaponised by Vladimir Fyodorovich Grechishnikov (Deputy Chief Designer of VNIITF, Snezhinsk) and detonated at 2500m altitude (the long range American detectors, which were less accurate than close-in Russian instrumentation, suggested that this Russian test 52, codenamed "Joe 46" by America, had a yield of 1.2 megatons and a burst height of 3200m). Litvinov gives details of the development of this bomb into modern Russian nuclear weapons in his report to the 3rd Historical Conference on the History of the Nuclear Weapons Complex of Russia, Snezhinsk, June 16-19, 1998, Development of Nuclear Charges at the RFNC-VNIIFT (1963- 1976) (first published on pages 135-145 of his book, Nuclear energy is not only for military application, published by the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ekaterinburg, 2002, and now available online on pages 536-547 of his Selected Works, published by VNIITF, Snezhinsk in 2014, linked here:http://elib.biblioatom.ru/text/litvinov_izbrannye-trudy_2014/go,0/, whose page numbering
we will quote from in the list of key Russian nuclear weapons design developments, be/ow). Litvinov there explains that: (1) between 1963-76 Russian nuclear charge designs were mastered for cheap factory mass production (serial production).
(2) the very high yield 1961-2 Russian nuclear tests of 20-50 megatons yield far exceeded the practical weight for missile warheads that could be delivered by affordable missiles, and when both Russian nuclear weapons labs (Sarov and Snezhinsk) tried to scale those designs down to give ~1 megaton from 300-500 kg mass, the results (quote from page 538 follows, emphasis added): "in 1961-1962 were not
crowned with success and this worried the military and the developers themselves. It turned out that it is easier to create powerful charges
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. [20-50 megatons] than less powerful [~1 megaton] ones, that have a weight restriction [300-500kg mass]." Reports in recent years however indicate that President Putin has brought back into production the 1961 designs for the tested 50 Mt (lead fusion capsule pusher) or untested 100 Mt (natural uranium fusion capsule pusher) version, to be used in his 32 Kanyon or "Ocean Multipurpose System Status-6" 24 m long, 2 m diameter, 100 ton nuclear underwater torpedo submarine drones, propelled by a nuclear reactor
at up to 100 knots, with an operating depth up to 1000 m. This was announced by Putin on 1 March 2018 (below).
(3) To make progress with compact ~1 Mt warheads
for missiles, they improved the fission primary stage designs, testing plastic explosive for implosion for the irst time in February 1964, and then "octogen"
known in the West as the explosive HMX) for the first ime by Russia in the 280mm diameter calibre nuclear hell tested on 19 October 1966 (Russian nuclear test 56, yielding 55kt), which "more than doubled" (page 45 quote) the yield of that device, due to the greater ore compression achieved by using a better chemical xplosive. This is also of course of great importance to ussian thermonuclear weapons of higher yield, since
more efficient primary stages release more x-rays and
Russian Channel One TV showed an official Russian report on its 100 megaton drone torpedo, showing a warhead 6 metres long and 2 metres in diameter, therefore enable greater fusion charge compression similar to the 8 m 1961 Tsar Bomba design (2 m of it was a parachute)
giving a more efficient fusion burn.
(4) They also improved the fusion charge design radically in 1965 by inserting tritium-deuterium gas into the hollow core of their fusion capsule (i.e. boosting the fusion capsule for the first time), which both improved the efficiency of their thermonuclear weapons, and also made possible cleaner devices (with greater fusion capsule compression due to their improved primary stages, they could replace a fissile spark plug neutron source inside the LiD charge with neutrons from tritium + deuterium fusion, which then fission lithium in the surrounding solid LiD, producing more tritium), allowing the testing of the cleanest ever 140 kt Russian thermonuclear test at Semipalatinsk on 10 December 1972, which had fully 10 times lower fission product radioactivity than the earlier similar 140 kt total yield (of which about 6 kt was fission) relatively clean test of 15 January 1965 at Chagan River (these data are from pages 541-542). In other words, they achieved well over 99% fusion yield (under 1% fission) in their 10 December 1972 test of 140 kt total yield
(illustration of Russian >99% clean bomb design is shown below)!
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2 Z afin ‘st 2 - i . ¥ Russian 96% fusion (clean), 4% fission underground test, Chagan River, January https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 61/510
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—— ¥
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ABOVE: the world’s first nuclear explosion-created freshwater lake, Lake Chagan. It was produced on 15 January 1965 at the edge of the Semipalatinsk Test Site in Kazakhstan using a 140 kt (96% fusion, 4% fission) thermonuclear weapon, detonated 178 m underground in saturated siltstone (12% water), employing only 6 kt of fission in two primary stages of 3 kt each. About 80% of the radioactivity was trapped underground and only 20% escaped into the atmosphere. The crater is 408 m in diameter and 100 m deep. The dose rate on the crater lip at 30 years after detonation was reported as 2.6 mR/hr, i.e. about 260 times the Earth’s average natural background radiation level of 0.010 mR/hr, with the lake water in the crater containing just 300 pCi/litre. On the
10 October 1965, they detonated a 1.1 kt nuclear bomb at 48 m depth in weak siltstone rock under the dry clay bed of the Sary-
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Uzen stream. The crater produced was initially 107 m in diameter and 31 m deep, but when flooded it slumped to 20 m depth and 124 m diameter. Some 96.5% of the fission products were trapped underground, and the crater lip had a dose rate of only about 2.5 R/hr at 5 days after detonation, decaying to 0.050 mR/hr (including natural background) at 30 years later. (Data source: Milo D. Nordyke, The Soviet Program for Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Explosions, Lawrence Livermore National Lab., UCRL-ID-124410, July 1996, pp. 13-15.)
(5) In the later chapter, "Exploding Deuterium", Litvinov clarifies that although Russia failed to directly initiate with PHYSICALLY SEPARATE fission stages the fusion of pure deuterium in its nuclear weapon tests, Russia succeeded in pure deuterium fusion, provided that the deuterium charge was ignited by prior fusion from a /arger mass of deuterium + tritium. See also the data from Russia linked here, here, and here. (America never succeeded in initiating a fusion burn in a PHYSICALLY SEPARATE deuterium charge either, despite many entirely false claims to the contrary, alleging that the 1952 Mike test used a fission bomb to compress and heat a completely physically separated charge of deuterium. This is false because the Mike fusion charge was not physically separate from fissile and fissionable material but in contact with both; it had a fissile "spark plug" core inside the deuterium flask, and a fissionable natural uranium pusher on the outside of the deuterium flask; it would not have ignited otherwise as is simple for even a kid to see from the numbers: for the 1-10 keV range of x-ray energies from a fission bomb, and the fact that D-D fusion cross sections for energies of concern are about 1% of D-T cross sections, plus the fact that it was a struggle to get 35% fusion efficiency in the later Castle shots using D+T fusion even with a fissile spark plug and a natural uranium pusher, Mike would have fizzled without the deuterium charge having a direct non-separate fission energy input from within and outside.) In other words, in clean weapons, Russia can boost the total energy from expensive T+D fusion by adding a smaller additional stage of cheaper pure deuterium fuel without the spark-plug and uranium pusher America used in Mike; this smaller deuterium stage size compensates for the fact that pure deuterium requires a higher burn temperature. Naturally, once you have achieved a small very-high-temperature deuterium burn in a small mass (a very hard job and impossible to do directly with a fission bomb, as proved by the true nature of Mike as distinct from lying "simplifications" by those who want to trivilise the problems of warhead design to ban testing for improvements), you can then try to kindle into a bigger volume burn by multiplying up steadily via a large number of "Russian doll" stages (bombs within bombs), gradually
increasing the power.
ABOVE: the 82 tons Mike top, in photos during assembly, is covered by a flat disc until Halloween 1952, when the Sausage's Dewar flask inside is filled with liquid deuterium, the fission primary is then inserted on to the top, and the flat cover disc is replaced by the founded top x-ray reflector over the primary. Photos are from Dr Frank H. Shelton, whose friend Dr Alvin C. Graves (who accompanied Shelton on his trip at Penney's invitation to the Australian-British nuclear tests at Maralinga, Operation Buffalo, in 1956) explaining how the primary, sparkplug (kindling), deuterium (fuel logs) and uranium pusher (hohlraum) in the Mike shot works on page 5-43 of his Reflections of a Nuclear Weaponeer (2nd edition, 1990): "First you need a match to start the fire; we use a fission bomb called the primary. Next, you wouldn't try to use the match to set one of the logs on fire, you would use some kindling [the central fissile spark plug]... That is Teller's 'New Super Bomb' invention ... Now you've got your logs burning ... You need a ... kind of furnace, the Germans call this a hohlraum, that propagates the fire ..." This is a very convoluted, pathetically expensive and low-efficiency dead-end in nuclear weapons design, one that has created a Western impasse of "correct" dogma that Russia has broken down! Tragically, we don't just have a nuclear shelters "gap", or
tactical neutron bombs "gap", we also have fundamental, massive "gap" in warhead design.
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| Cover disc Rounded
~~ stop over
primary
ABOVE: Ernest O. Lawrence with his colleagues from what is now called Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, at Bikini Atoll in May 1956, preparing for their 3.53 megatons 85% clean (fusion) Livermore Redwing-Zuni test to make thermonuclear weapons fallout- safe as a deterrent (from Dr Frank H. Shelton's Reflections of a Nuclear Weaponeer, where Shelton called the most thoroughly fallout- documented test in history (as a result he testified that fallout was completely safe, see the 10 May 1957 New York Times article below, although he was unfortunately prohibited from PROVING IT PUBLICALLY due to SECRECY nonsense - Shelton being responsible for organising this). Livermore was outdone by Los Alamos, which fired Navajo, a 95% clean 4.5 megatons hydrogen bomb without the fissile spark plug that accounted for 10% of Zuni's 15% fission yield. Los Alamos used plastic foam to slow down the x-rays, giving enough time for primary stage neutrons to be channelled through the hollow centre of their lithtum-6 deuteride Sausage, fissioning enough lithium into tritium prior to x-ray implosion. Zuni and Navajo were both rendered obsolete by Lawrence Livermore's John H. Nuckoll's 99.9% clean isentropically compressed pusherless nuclear tests at Christmas Island during Operation Dominic in 1962, the "Ripple" breakthrough (discussed in detail later in this blog post), and by Russian nuclear weapons development tests allegedly "peaceful" but in reality tactical neutron bombs, lasting a quarter of a century (from 1965 onward). On page 8-15, Dr Shelton points out that at the White House's 24 June 1957 Presidential Briefing propaganda event on "clean bomb", only the Livermore Radiation Laboratory designers of 85% clean Zuni were present (Ernest Lawrence, Mark Mills - drowned at Eniwetok in a helicopter crash during a rainstorm while preparing a clean bomb for testing the next year - and Edward Teller): "Conspicuous by their absence from the Presidential briefing were the Los Alamos weapon designers. After all, it was the "clean" [95% fusion] NAVAJO shot on Operation REDWING (1956), designed by LASL, that established the state-of-the-art in reduced fission weapon designs. 'We now believe that we know how to make virtually clean weapons, not only in the megaton range, but all the way down to small kiloton weapons,' Lawrence told the President." Shelton adds on page 8-16 that he briefed the Gaither Commmittee on 31 July 1957 on fallout, which led to the first recommendation for identifying US fallout shelters (ignored by Eisenhower but later implemented by Kennedy).
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CHAPTER 7
In May 1956, members of a University of California Regents committee accompz Grounds to review the ZUNI hydrogen-fusion nuclear weapon test. Left to right James H. Corley; UCRL Physicist Harry Keller; Regents Gerald Hagar and Victor R. and Gerald Johnson, in front of Brigadier General Alfred D. Starbird (person to Lawrence; UCRL Physicists Carl Haussmann and Charles Blue; UCRL Director Herbert FIGURE 7-23. UCRL GROUP AT PACIFIC PROVING |
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WAY 10 1957
SCIENTIST DOUBTS FALL-OUT DANGER
Atom Tests Can Be sste'Cuni Ba af for 40 Years at Present Rate, Pentagon Aide Testifies HY TIMES _
Special to The New York Times,
WASHINGTON, May 9— Atomic testing can be continued at the present rate for another forty to fifty years and not create any serious danger from radioactive fallout, the chief atomic weapons scientist in the Defense Department believes.
This opinion was offered re- cently by Dr. Frank H. Shelton, technical director of the Armed Forces Special Weapons Proj- ect. He gave it when testifying before a House Appropriations subcommittee on the possible dangers to human health caused by the fall-out from atomic ex- plosions. The testimony was re- leased today.
NEW YORK TIMES, 10 MAY 1957, '
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Dr. Shelton was called before the subcommittee to discuss what had been described as a “great deal of concern” being expressed over the long-range effect on the human race of the fall-out. The subcommit- tee’s chairman, Representative George H. Mahon, Democrat of Texas, had noted such “con- cern.”
At one point during the closed door hearing, Mr. Mahon asked:
“Could you not say that at the present rate we could go on for forty to fifty years without serious danger in so far as you know?”
“Yes,”’Dr. Shelton replied.
Information ‘Meager’
At the same time, Dr. Shelton conceded that information on world-wide fall-out from past atomic tests was “extremely meager.” The Defense Depart- ment, he said, is taking steps to define more precisely the amount of radioactive debris in the air from atomic tests and the rate at which it is falling to the earth.
Dr. Shelton testified that it would require large nuclear ex- plosions with a yield equivalent to 30,000,000,000 tons of TNT to
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bring the average « of Strontium-90 in up to the maximun concentration, Thi equivalent to 1,50! bombs of the size Japan in World Wa
Strontium-90 is radioactive product explosion. In hum can produce cancer The maximum per! centration of Stro! general populations at one-tenth of a m a person. A curie i measurement of rad microcurie is one-Ir curie.
Dr. Shelton said t imum permissible c was five to ten tim concentration neces duce a “barely de crease” in the rate cer or leukemia. H was based on the challenged by som that extremely smi Strontium -90 will bone cancer.
Dr. Shelton like to minimize the tt ternal radiation fr materials. To ir world-wide externa exposure by 10 per ¢
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FIGURE 6-24 MARK-17 THERMONUCLEAR WEAP(
The gigantic advantage of deuterium fusion is that you don't need to create a large number of neutrons ahead of fusion to fission lithium in order to produce tritium. Lying simplified pictures of nuclear warheads with lithium deuteride secondary stages, often also showing a neutron shield to prevent neutrons from the primary stage from "pre-initiating" the secondary stage (regardless of whether the secondary stage contains fissile material or not) omit the entire problem that lithium deuteride must be irradiated with neutrons to produce tritium prior to D+T fusion becoming possible (otherwise you have no tritium). The 85% clean 3.53 megaton Livermore Zuni test of Operation Redwing at Bikini Atoll in 1956 contained a fissile sparkplug which accounts for about 10% of the 15% fission yield (Zuni contained a lead pusher around the lithium deuteride instead of natural uranium), but the 95% clean 4.5 megaton Los Alamos Navajo test of that series had an entirely clean second stage (no fissile spark plug). But Navajo had to eliminate the neutron interstage shield (unnecessary if you use non-fissile secondary stage) and to use a neutron channel to guide neutrons from the primary stage into the hollow cylindrical lithium deuteride secondary stage, to enable some of the lithium to be fissioned to produce tritium, BEFORE the secondary stage was compressed by x-ray ablation of the lead pusher on the outside of that secondary cylinder. So Navajo needed to have a significant primary yield to release those neutrons, and the design would fail if its primary stage size was reduced to try to reduce fission yield to below 5%. So to make further progress on cleaner weapons, you need either immense, isentropic compressions of the secondary stage that allow neutrons from a non-fissile D+T spark plug within lithium-6 deuteride (or natural lithium deuteride, in the best designs) to work, which has the problem of the radioactive decay of the tritium, or you must consider overcoming the hurdle of D+D fusion to achieve a long-shelf life clean nuclear warhead that doesn't require top ups to compensate for the 12.3 years half life of tritium. The key issue with D+D fusion is that, having a cross section 100 times less than D+T fusion, you need to use isentropic not shock compression to concentrate a lot more x- ray energy into compressing it to extremely high density to get really efficient fusion. But having done so, you then have the advantage of
a very clean, very cheap, very long-shelf-life bomb:
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Statement Before the Department of Def Committee on Appropriations, House of
by
REAR ADMIRAL EDWARD N. PARKER DEFENSE ATOMIC SUPPORT AGENC:
23 March 1960 Radioactive Fallout From Nuclear °
To a degree this controversy has existed bec with what appeared to be a new phenomenon. There ignorance of the facts concerning radioactivity r
_also_among the "experts." This is not surprisin broad spectrum of = Sciplines which are involved i its effects. Nuclear physics i" meteorology, Soil medicine, genetics, and political science all hav “on this subject and most studies have involved g
no ifferences of opinion or of emphasis expe
"The Mike device contained several dozen litres of liquid deuterium; however, fusion efficiency was probably not much greater than 15%, and 8 megatons (nearly 80%) of Mike's total yield came from fission of plutonium and uranium-235 [in the sparkplug radially central inside the cylindrical Dewar or Sausage of liquid deuterium] ... (If the Sausage contained 1000 litres of liquid D, then "burn" efficiency was around 6%.)" - Chuck Hansen, Footnote 93 in Swords of Armageddon, version 2.0, volume 3, pages III-
38 and III-39. (This contains calculational errors.)
Boris Litvinov's "Exploding Deuterium" chapter also examines the use of uranium-233 in nuclear weapons, which is made in reactors by irradiating thorium-232 with neutrons. There is an important storage problem, since Litvinov states that this uranium-233 is contaminated by 0.1% uranium-232, which has an alpha decay chain which includes thallium-208, which releases high energy 2.6 and 0.6 MeV gamma rays, so that a year after production, a mass of 1 kg of U233 or | g of U232 gives a gamma dose rate of 10 R/hour at 50 centimetres distance. This makes U233 weapons very difficult to service safely! However, Russia used U233 in place of plutonium in its RDS-37 aka "Joe-19", the Russian's celebrated 1.6 megatons, 22 November 1955 two-stage thermonuclear weapon, according to Dr Frank H. Shelton's Reflections of a Nuclear Weaponeer, page 7-27, which cites reference 24 on page 7-68, which is the Top Secret classified 20 February 1956 U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, "Intelligence Information for Joint Intelligence Committee", which says that the RDS-37 fallout contained evidence of U233, U235, U238 and LiD, but no plutonium! I'm just quoting here, and am curious as to how they could rule out the presence of plutonium when of course neutron capture in the U238, which definitely was present, yields U239 which quickly decays into Np239 and then into Pu239 within days! You also get smaller quantities of higher mass isotopes of plutonium, from multiple neutron captures in U238. Maybe they had big samples of fallout and excellent radiochemistry, and deduced that a// the plutonium present in the
fallout was the result of neutron captures in U238, and none had been present initially in the bomb before firing. If so, hats off to them!
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ANNEX A - GENERAL IMPROVE MENTS OF NUCLEAR WRAPONS
HOW C CAPAB CAN W
UNDER LTBT
1966 US Joint a Chiefs of Staff
Top Secret report calls for minimal T use as a poe term aim.
improve
(2) Eff could b product small
require product is poss onstru
J)EFINED BY ATOMIC ENERGY ACT OF 1954
ABOVE: the 1966 Top Secret US Joint Chiefs of Staff report, Study of National Security Factors in a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Appendix C, "Criticality of Nuclear Testing to US Nuclear Weapons Technology", Annexes A and B called for vital long-term improvements to US nuclear weapons designs, including reduction of U235 (oralloy) and T (tritium) dependence, e.g. with efficient isentropic compression of pressurised D capsules replacing T+D, and also enhanced prompt gamma ray weapons for maximising EMP strength (this is done by putting a nickel-chromium shell around the fusion capsule in a neutron bomb, to convert a fraction of the neutron energy into high energy gamma rays). These lengthy annexes also called for reduced warhead costs, increased warhead shelf-life, directed X-ray output (i.e. simply putting the bomb into a metal tube, open at one end, before the development of nuclear pumped x-ray laser Excalibur by Livermore a decade later), enhanced ground shock warheads (e.g. hardened earth penetrator warheads), and reduced fission
yield at low total yield to allow cleaner tactical warheads.
Russian VNIIFT nuclear warhead design laboratory film of t...
(6) A 2005 film (embedded above, and linked on YouTube here) by the Snezhinsk nuclear weapons lab about their nuclear weapon "products" (extensive stills from this film are reproduced below, showing the range of nuclear missile, bomb and cannon shell warheads they developed) adds further information on how Russia managed to reduce the weight of its MIRV nuclear warheads. Translating from
the Russian voice narrative commentary of the film: "a Russian patent was obtained for the design of the [thermonuclear weapon casing
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ANNEX B -
- _TAILORSD ¢ OUTPUT
EMP effect is enhanced by neutron bombs
ayo
with chromiu
energy nto gamma rays (1966 JCS Top Secret report)
\S DEFINED BY ATOMIC ENERGY ACT OF 1954
or] container by the specialists of the two institutes under the leadership of Petrov. In close cooperation with the Institute of Superplasticity of Metals, the city of Ufa, a new technology was developed for manufacturing multi-profile parts from hard-to-form alloys based on nickel-titanium and aluminum using the effect of superplasticity. ... the new technology makes it possible to reduce the weight and increase the strength of parts, and for their manufacture to use hard-to-deform superalloys. ... Product 244 was the first mass- produced atomic small-sized bomb for equipping front-line aircraft weighing 55 times less than the mass of the product 202. Product 245 was the first mass-produced thermonuclear bomb for equipping strategic aviation weighing five times less than the mass of the product 202. When creating products 244 and 245, conceptual provisions were developed for the development of single bombs for a wide range of carrier aircraft ... more than 20 samples of aerial bombs of various calibers were developed and designations for creating a family of them were awarded the State Prize of the USSR. Product 6 was a nuclear warhead of an anti-aircraft guided missile ... Product 30: this is the first development by the Institute of Nuclear Ammunition to equip the ground-based missile system UR-100 ... Product 269 is a nuclear
warhead of an operational tactical single-stage missile ...
"The presented nuclear munitions of the missile systems of the navy allow us to trace the origin and development of the least vulnerable naval component of the country's strategic nuclear forces of the product 255a 13 nuclear munition of the R12 missile with a detachable warhead of the D2S complex. ... Product 3 combat equipment of the R21 missile with a detachable warhead of the complex 24, the first domestic complex with the launch of a missile from a submerged position. ... Product 15 combat equipment rocket R27 medium range ... Product 42 combat equipment of the R27 missile to the complex was intended to destroy aircraft carriers and electronic missile defense systems of a potential enemy. Product 46 ensuring the stability of ammunition, the operation of electronic countermeasures and air shock in the conditions of Western firing, the creation of ammunition 46, ensuring the effective use of the T9 complex. Products 82 and 83 combat equipment, the R-27 missile, the first missiles of the naval fleets that could be equipped with both monoblock main part of the v82 nuclear weapon and those sharing the main part with three nuclear weapons of type product 83. ... The ammunition 82 automation system was improved compared to the automation of ammunition 15 and 46. ... Products 94 and 95 were developed for the value of the first complex of the methodological purpose of the navy of the 3rd generation; this can be equipped with a single-block nuclear warhead 94 or
divided main and part of the firing of warheads nuclear ammunition 95 individual targeting at specified trailer points. ..." (For clear
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photographic definitions of the various "Product" numbers assigned to Russian nuclear warheads, see the stills from their film
summarising their warheads, below.)
MCcaczOMATeancKo ro 1961 — 1965 . ¢, > Faammatic xoncrpy 0 BHHUTS r. Crenanicn Yea _ 1965 - 1968 —aam.raannoro xonc 1968 - 1997 - raannosii xoworpye: | hoAL-mUUITE, 1998 2010 - aam.naywnoro pyxcnoanreae APXMBHO-AMAAUTHHCCKON HAywIO MCcATAERRTON EE To anaanay, eMcremarnsannn marepaas PT oy : = $ ae ro Tpyaa [98TH
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Celebrated Russian nuclear bomb designer Boris Vasilyevich Litvinov
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TlamAmHUKU omeuecmeenHou
POCCUHCKAA AKAJLEMUA HAYK
Poccuiicknit (beepasibublit slepHbIii WeHTp — BHM texnnyeckoii (pusHKn HMeHH akatemuka E. W. 3a6a6axnna
Al
Vil b. B. JIMTBUHOB
M3bBPAHHDIE TPY/[bI
Usarareaperbo POAIL—-BHUH TO Cuexuuck 2014
BELOW: a declassified data summary of a wide range of Russian nuclear weapons, their designers, and the use of the weapons by various delivery systems from the VNIIFT nuclear warhead design laboratory, which designed 100% of the currently stockpiled Russian strategic freefall nuclear bombs, and also 100% of currently stockpiled Russian tactical nuclear warheads (both freefall aircraft delivery bombs and artillery fired projectiles of various kinds). This film concludes with the message: "Postscript: In the real conditions of Russia's current position in the world community, and the state of the Russian army, Russia's nuclear weapons remain a reliable guarantor of strategic stability in the world, independence, integrity of the country's military and economic security. - From the (VNIIFT nuclear weapons lab)
authors."
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RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Russian Federal Nuclear Center
Academician E. |. Zababakhin Institute of Technical Physics
B. V. LITVINOV
SELECTED WORKS
Publishing House RFYATS VNIITF
Snezhinsk 2014
KB-2
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Pages 536-547:
DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR CHARGES AT THE RFNC - VNIITF (1963-1976)
Development of nuclear charges at the RFNC
The second, but no less important reason for classifying 1963 as a turning J = o
point in the charge indu s the transition, starting this year, to the pt
chemes and designs of nuclear charges, which became the basis for the
subsequent creation of that ge ation of nuclear char which now forms
basis of Russia's nuclear weapons. The year of the «
i of this period can be
to name the same 1976, since by that year most of the developed nuclear
... [mass production
charges had been n
of 50 and 100 Mt TE have no future. The work plans of our institute
for 1963 included the creation of a nuclear charge with an energy release
of 100 Mt TE, since the KB-11 charge tested on October 31, 1961
at that power could not be placed in any carrier, except for a specially modified T\ We assumed to make our own version of the charge with the same
energy release according to the scheme proposed at our institute
by L. P. Feoktistov, M. P. Shumaev, E. N. Avrorin and B. M. Murashkin
ands s in 1962
in char , and above
all in the Design Bureau h
y Academiciz Chelomey, a heavy
fting iting
rocket capable of 20 tons of payloac ped
All this did ne
specific yt seem to portend the withering of |
2rful and super-powerful nuclear charge
11 Mt and a mass of 300 to 500 kg
to the targets much less powerful missiles than those that were created by us
and, accordingly, the aerial nuclear tests of KB-11 and NIl-1011 in this directic
n 1961-1962 ied the military
me time
BHUUT® pa3spa6oTaHo
AMepHbIx SOoenpunacos Da3sHbixX TUNOB U Ha3HayeHun
(KB-2 VNIITF DEVELOPED 90 NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR ALL
PURPOSES
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VNIITF RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS SUMMAR
Padouaa rpynna 80 Dusib (English:
() pay 60TOR
(English: Working group 80) (--. To the 60t
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@ FobyiRBeraeniod Npemuu CCCP - 53 USSR Russian
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(es SacnyKeHHbIid KOHCTpyKTop P® - 4 (Russian Federation) HarpaxoeHuA AWARDS
Opyeua uv meganu CCCP u Po - oxono 1400 14
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(152.4 mm diameter nuclear artillery shell)
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[NABHbIA KOHCTDYKT UHCTUTYTa NO NepBo KOHCTPYKTOPCKOMY
HanpaBneHuk
b.B. JivTBuHoB
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(PRODUCT 6: NUCLEAR WARHEAD FOR SURFACE-TO-AIR DEFENCE MISSILES)
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(STRATEGIC NUCLEAR MISSILES OF THE
NAVY) AnepHoe oeBoe OCHaWjeHne KeTHbIX KOMNMNeKC ruyeckoro Ha3
HaABoAnnin 4
WS WaxkTbi
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(PRODUCT 3)
(PRODUCT 42)
Komnnexc [1-5
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(USE OF PRODUCT 42)
(USE OF PROD
PRODUCT (3rd GENERATION: MIRV PRODUCT 82
83 SINGLE
(MIRVs) | THERMONUCLEAR WARHEADS) WARHEAD
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(USE OF PRODUCT
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(Chief Designer of Institute
P.S.
B peanb
nonom«e
wecTBe AnepHoe HafemKuHt
cra6unb
LeNocTH
on | 6e30nac re \ (TRANSLATION,| Postscript: In , (2005) position in the world cd
/ ; — : army, Russia's nuclear weapo - stability in the world, indepen
Tnasybiii KOHCTpyKTop uuctTuTyta I, 1. 3enenkun and economic security. - From
ICBM silo oO"
blast door
Sat Re. = a 2 = eee
Transportation of warhead bus to a Russian ICBM
' _
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. The film stills above taken from the 2005 film dedicated to the 60th Anniversary of the USSR's Victory in WWII, made by the VNIITF
Russian nuclear weapons design laboratory at Snezhinsk, and it summarises the warheads, their purposes, delivery systems, uses, designers, philosophy, and so on. Note that one of the weapons designers shown to be responsible for the 1970s MIRV narrow-diameter Snezhinsk nuclear warheads (Product 83 with a mass of 170 kg was tested on 2 November 1972 yielding 165 kt, and Product 95 with a mass of 210 kg was tested on 23 July 1973 yielding 212 kt) is Viadimir Fyodorovich Grechishnikoy (1917-58), who died in 1958; the point is that the dual-linear implosion primary design of thermonuclear weapon (simply a pipe with two melon-shaped linear implosion fission bombs in it, separated by a capsule of fusion fuel) was developed by 1958, earning Grechishnikov a Lenin Prize. Grechishnikov, a design engineer, had earlier appropriately worked on other straightforward and low-cost solutions for Russia, namely designing the cheap, easily manifactured, but efficient tank and aircraft engines during WWII that helped Russia win decisive battles by numerical superiority. The hard fact that the laboratory credits him with the MIRV warhead designs of the 1970s, despite his death in 1958, proves that the dual primary design first tested in 1958 was used in those 1970s MIRV warheads. Grechishnikov's background in Russian tank designs of WWI is not an aberration of Russian nuclear weapon design, witness that in "Designer N L Dukhovy and his School" published in 2004 by JSC South Ural Publishing House, Chelyabinsk, Dukhov is another similar, WWII Russian tank designer who ended up a nuclear weaponeer, deputy chief designer of KB-11 (aka Arzamas-16, or Sarov) developing over 10 years the neutron initiators for the first
generation of Sarov's deployed nuclear weapons across 17 delivery systems including the R-7 missile and the T-5 nuclear torpedo!
The weapons designer with the big eyebrows in the film, shown both as a designer of the world's smallest diameter nuclear artillery shell and with President Putin on the latter's visit to the lab by helicopter in 2000, is the late Boris Vasilievich Litvinov (1929-2010), a prolific author of scientific papers and also books hankering after the restoration of Russia as a great power. Russia's version of Edward Teller. In 2019, a 506-page book of tributes to his work was published in Russia, "BORIS LITVINOV: FACETS OF PERSONALITY", published in 2019, which begins with the following quotation from Litvinov: "By the way, a bomb designed for rapid self- destruction, makes it easier to create long-term useful technologies." (VNIITF also has a 1 hour recent film about him on their website, quoting his political books, with his colleagues talking how he remembered the German attack of 22 June 1941, how Russian victory in the war led to progress, and prestige now needs to be restored following the tragic break-up of the USSR. You get the idea...) Boris Litvinov is one of the four authors of the article "History of the nuclear weapons industry" in the Russian journal Atomic Energy, Vol. 86, No. 6, 1999, pages 402-410), which states:
"The creation of the nuclear weapons industry in the Soviet Union is correctly considered as one of the greatest achievements in Russian history. It has been accompanied by the defeat of fascist Germany and space flights to constitute the Soviet Union as a superpower. ... The stocks of uranium (100 tons) accumulated in Germany passed to Soviet physicists in 1945 and were used to construct the F-1 reactor in Laboratory No. 2, which was the first such reactor in the USSR and in Eurasia. ... 31 theoreticians ... participated in various ways in the work on the RDS-37. ... The energy release was 1.6 Mt of TNT equivalent. The USSR was ahead of the USA, which tested a similar thermonuclear aircraft bomb half a year later on May 21, 1956. ... In 1956, NU-1011 had obtained a commission to develop an aircraft bomb containing a gigantic thermonuclear device ... mass about 25 tons. The bomb should have been dropped for bombardment purposes by M-2 and Tu-95 aircraft. Design studies showed that such a bomb could be carried to the target only by the Tu-95 after its bomb bay and framework had been modified provided that the dimensions were reduced to 1.8m in diameter and 8m long with a mass of not more than 25 tons. NII-1011 in 1956-8 worked on the design of that bomb and performed theoretical calculations on the thermonuclear device, but in connection with the moratorium on nuclear tests, manufacturing the body parts was halted, and the only body remaining after the summer tests was destroyed. The work on the device was halted. Nuclear tests were renewed on September 1, 1961. A body was prepared for the gigantic bomb. On October 31, 1961, the world's largest thermonuclear device was exploded above Novaya Zemlya, which had been developed at KB-11 under Sakharov's direction. It was designed for a total energy production of 100 Mt of TNT equivalent, and the device was tested at a height of 4000 m for half the energy production in order to reduce the radioactive contamination of the atmosphere and the effects of the shock wave. ... Somewhat later, a similar thermonuclear device yielding 20 Mt was proposed by KB-11. Out of the gigantic devices tested, only two were adopted as weapons and were for a certain time part of the strategic rocket armament: one developed by NII-1011 and the other by KB-11. ... With the start of reform, the attitude of the country's government to nuclear weapons began to change. The nuclear weapons industry attained its apogee at that time. It was apparent that its experts could resolve any problem in supplying nuclear weapons to the Soviet army although there was an ongoing and considerable lag in Soviet computing behind
American."
ABOVE: 30 August 2000 Secret CIA Intelligence 23-page technical Memorandum, "Evidence of Russian Development of New Subkiloton Nuclear Warheads", now declassified with deletions at https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0001260463.pdf
states that these 0.3 kt tactical/battlefield (so-called "non-strategic" in the obfuscation jargon popular with disarmers) nuclear warheads
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| . http$://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC 0001260463.pdf a -* necn eee
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
C | TEE
Intelligence Memorandum Office of Transnational Issues 30 August 2000
(b) (1) Evidence of Russian Development of New Subkiloton Nuclear (b) (3)
Warheads[ _| CATE nant 24GB LX
es statements by Russian scientists and officials © =P BEB since 1993 indicate that the last nuclear warhead designed during the Soviet era was a device tailored for enhanced output of high-energy X-rays with a total yield
of only 300 tons.
Judging from Russian writings since 1995 and Moscow’s evolving nuclear doctrine, new roles are emerging for very-low-yield nuclear weapons—including weapons with tailored radiation output—and there are powerful advocates for
development of such weapons in the country’s military and weapons community. The Moscow press claimed that a draft presidential edict from Yel’tsin called for “development of new-generation nuclear weapons.”
r Recent statements on Russia’s evolving nuclear weapons doctrine lower the threshold for first use of nuclear weapons and blur the Boundary between nuclear and conventional warfare. Very-low-yield nuclear weapons reportedly could be used to head off a major conflict
and avoid a full-scale nuclear war.
In the post-Soviet era, the need for subkiloton nuclear weapons with minimal long-term contamination has been argued in the media by senior Ministry of Atomic Energy (Minatom) officials, nuclear weapons scientists, and military academics since the mid- 1990s. Advocates often claim to know that the United States is developing the next generation of nuclear weapons and argue that Russia must not lag behind. Somewhat
inconsistently, they also cite clean, very-low-yield weapons as an “asymmetric response” to US superiority in conventional weapons. According to Sergei Rogachev, Deputy
Director of the Arzamas-16 nuclear weapons design laboratory: “Russia views the tactical use Of nuclear weapons as a viable alternative to Ce conventional weapons.”
e Senior Russian military officers have advocated the use of highly-accurate, super-low-
yield nuclear weapons in Russian military journals such as Military Thought and Armeyskiy Sbornik. Deputy Commander in Chief of the Strategic Rocket Forces
Muravyev stated that to have an effective impact across the entire spectrum of targets
strategic missile systems should be capable of conducting surgical strikes in a wide spectrum of ranges with minimal ecological consequences, which could be achieved with low-yield nuclear weapons.
Soviet Era Development of Tailored - Output Nuclear Devices
Russian development of nuclear devices tailored to enhance certain types of radiation output began during the Soviet period when “clean” nuclear devices—that is with reduced contamination from fission products—were needed for peaceful nuclear explosions (PNE’s), according to statements by the developers. Clean PNE devices were in effect the first enhanced-radiation devices produced in Russia and likely precursors of tailored-output devices developed later for both effects testing and weapons development,
which involved the same scientists (see appendix B for detailed discussion).
Enhanced-radiation weapons are designed to increase the effective range of gamma, neutron, X-ray, or electromagnetic pulse effects beyond the range of the airblast and fireball effects. Clean PNE devices are designed to minimize contamination from fission products by maximing the fraction of the total yield produced by fusion. The two objectives are achieved by similar design approaches.
e Former At and nation boundarie: advocated yields that ‘destructioi sharply lo"
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APPROVED FOR RELEAS Current mode DATE: OCT 2005
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NOTE Ukrai the s. new | Beca time, Ukrai “safe
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This concept by President November 1! Federation c weapons and nonnuclear tl might use nu Operation of. and chemical
"blur the boundary between nuclear and conventional war ... as an 'asymmetric response’ to US superiority in conventional weapons [e.g.,
Russian 0.3 kt nuclear weapons will be used when they run short of conventional weapons in the ongoing Ukrainian war, as the West
replenishes Ukrainian conventional weapons to enable it to destroy Russian conventional arms]. According to Sergei Rogachev, Deputy
Director of the Arzamas-16 nuclar weapons design laboratory: 'Russia views the tactical use of nuclear weapons as a viable alternative to
advanced conventional weapons'." Note that these tactical Russian nuclear weapons originated, like the American neutron bomb, from
early efforts to produce peaceful nuclear explosives for purposes such as space travel (e.g. American "Project Orion", led by Theodore
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Taylor and Freeman Dyson, employing Lawrence Livermore's relatively clean, i.e. low fission yield and high fusion yield nuclear warhead designs Dove and Starling, which had little fallout but a huge 14.1 MeV neutron output, motivating Sam Cohen to propose using them for military deterrent purposes in W66, W70 and W79 enhanced neutron output devices), and in this peaceful project "coincidentally", Russia tested a similar 0.3 kt tactical nuclear weapon 900 m down the Ukrainian coal mine at Yumkom, Donetsk on 16 September 1979 (allegedly for "safety" to expel methane gas from the mine - which resumed operation the next day - but such tests also provide military
data for use of atomic demolition munitions - ADMs - without violating the 1963 Atmospheric Nuclear Test ban Treaty).
William J. Broad wrote in his 5 February 2022 New York Times article, Ukraine Gave Up a Giant Nuclear Arsenal 30 Years Ago - Today There Are Regrets (contrary to disarmament scammers): "At the end of the Cold War, the third largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine. The Soviet collapse, a slow-motion downfall that culminated in December 1991, resulted in the newly independent Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms that Moscow had stationed on its soil. [Along with the nuclear civil defense underground shelters which have allowed the civilians to survive the invasion and fight back, which were fortunately not also destroyed on the say-so of the anti-civil defence journals Scientific American and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.] The removal of this arsenal often gets hailed as a triumph of arms control. Diplomats and peace activists cast Ukraine as a model citizen in a world of would-be nuclear powers. But ... both Ukrainian and American experts questioned the wisdom of atomic disarmament. The deadly weapons, some argued, were the only reliable means of deterring Russian aggression. ... “We gave away the capability for nothing,” said Andriy Zahorodniuk, a former defense minister of Ukraine. Referring to the security assurances Ukraine won in exchange for its nuclear arms, he added: “Now, every time somebody offers us to sign a strip of paper, the response is, ‘Thank you very much. We already had one of those some time ago.’” [Idealists will never be able to understand that trash lies written on paper as treaties or agreements are as worthless as trash speeches and acted handshakes in front of TV cameras. Hitler signed endless such treaty lies and also similarly gave endless lying peace speeches and peace handshakes before his invasions and genocide, as did Stalin and all the other dictators. The media of the 1930s lapped it up then as peacemaking, as it always
does.|"
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Veterans of Kyiv rue the day tl nuclear arsenal | L——_ :
From Anthony Loyd, Kyiv, "Veterans of Kyiv rue the day they gave up their nuclear arsenal", Friday February 11 2022, 3.00pm,
The Times: "The general who had his finger on the button warns: Don’t give up your missiles. ... tritium boosters and fragments of SS-24 “Scalpel” rocket launch systems on tabletops, all that is left of Ukraine’s nuclear missile stockpile, once the third largest in the world, as workmen began to box them, taking them away into storage in preparation to close the office for good. 'I knew deep in my soul that we should never have given them away’ ..." - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/step-into-the-twilight-world-of- ukraines-forgotten-nuclear-silos-ljt9g3dh8 (Only one nuclear SS18 ICBM base now remains in Ukraine, 25km north of Pervomaysk, but it is now just a tourist museum, since all of the nuclear warheads have been removed from the remaining four SS-18 ICBMs on display.)
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B. 0. Kuprowkun
Pe All-BHAKT®
Cylindrical centred: two linear implosion primaries Narrow
diameter:
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Cia) Part 3. The birth of a new - peaceful - dire
"Liquidation of an emergency gas fountain birthplace" (Batorin V. D., Mokshenkov No. 2, VNIIEF).
The first JAVA RFNC - VNIITF worke:
Minister of Medium Mechanical Enginee! development of a small-caliber JAVA RI batteries for artillery shells were developed.
The development of a small-caliber java wa specially organized for the development of use. However, the schematic design solt
nuclear charge for this JAVA were used t
artillery nuclear charge developed in depa
The charge developed in the departm small-caliber JAVA, was successfully on July 15, 1967. And after the complete Java design as a whole, a nuclear explo which ensured the clamping of an emerge
Rounded, but non-tapering end to cylinder: two spherical primaries Larger diameter: 1.5 ktikg efficiency at1Mt
P=Primary F=Li6D
Three major designs of thermonuclear weapons in the Russian stockpile today, based on designers testimony
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List of literature
Heroes of the atomic project. Authors-compilers: N. N. Bogunenko, A. D. Pilipenko, G. A. Sosnin. / Edited by L. D. Ryabev, N. A. Boldyreva, R |. IIkaev, A. A. Brisha, B. V. Gorobets and others - Sarov. FSUE RFNC VNIIEF. - 2005
Designer N. L. Dukhov and his School. JSC South Ural Publishing House- telstvo, Chelyabinsk, 2004
Litvinov B. V. Nuclear energy is not only for military purposes. UrO RAS, Yekaterinburg, 2002
Peaceful nuclear explosions. /Edited by N.P. Voloshin, Yu.V. Duba- sova, E.P. Kornilovich, B.V. Litvinov, etc. Moscow. Published, 2001
Nikitin A.M. Design department of nuclear charges RFNC - VNIITF, 1955-2005, Snezhinsk, 2005, (on the rights of the manuscript)
Saviet Atomic Project / Head of the Editorial Board E. A. Negin. VNIIEF, Sarov, 2000.
Creators of nuclear weapons KB-11 (RFNC - VNIIEF) Volume 1. Authors-
compilers V. T. Solgalov, E. A. Astafyeva, O. A. Pogodina. Edited by Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences R. I. Ilkaev. RFNC - VNIIEF, Sarov, 2004
Designed for military uses, - also used for peaceful tests
Cyoretrieat centred: tw Bees freptosion, primaries
v0210
http://vniitf.ru/data/files/books/slovooz ababahine.pdf
Camoe uncToe ATepH
ASI. (The cleanest nuclear explosive device for
Campi MasoraOapuTHBIi AJePHbIN apTUJINepuucKuu CHapay (The smallest nuclear artillery projectile)
ABOVE: declassified Russian photo of the the 99.85% clean (fusion) Russian nuclear warhead (referred to the secret CIA report above), originally developed by E. I. Zababakhin at Russia's VNIIFT (the Russian Federal Nuclear Center, All-Russian Research
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Institute of Technical Physics) nuclear weapons lab for "peaceful" uses, but more recently weaponised and put into the unregulated Russian tactical (aka "non-strategic") nuclear warhead stockpile, for use in coercing and overcoming Western defences which now lack purpose designed tactical nuclear weapons W54 and W79. This photo is directly taken from VNIIFT's own book A WORD ABOUT ZABABAKHIN - COLLECTION OF MEMORY (second edition, corrected and enlarged book by vniitf, published in the closed city Snezhinsk in 2016, with an Editorial foreword stating: "... the editors considered it possible to update the biographical information of the memoirists and include previously unpublished materials, such as those declassified ..''), online on their website in PDF form (along with other useful books, containing previously classified data and photos of Russian nuclear warhead designs and tests). This book states on pages 6-7 that the Russian cleaner tactical nuclear weapons were first tested in 1965 when tritium and deuterium in gaseous form replaced solid lithium deuterium, in an experiment to reduce the
yield of cleaner weapons to the minimum:
"In terms of volume and breadth of coverage, the program of physical experiments VNIITF has no analogue among all the world's nuclear weapons centers. Of particular importance was a physical experiment conducted in 1965, in which thermonuclear combustion of gaseous deuterium and gaseous deuterium-tritium mixture was carried out. This experience marked the beginning of the development of a new type of atomic charges, the use of which in thermonuclear munitions made it possible to significantly reduce their dimensions and mass, which was very important for the creation of multiple warheads of missile systems, both ground-based and underwater-based. Its results were also in demand in the creation of nuclear explosive devices (NED) for peaceful applications. Peaceful Use of Nuclear Explosions Eugene Ivanovich paid special attention. Under his leadership, VNIITF became a leader in development and use of devices for peaceful nuclear explosions: from the conducted in the USSR 124 peaceful nuclear explosions in 75 development devices were used VNIITF. ... The experience of 1965, in the development and implementation of which Evgeny Ivanovich took personal active participation, was useful for both types of NED. ... Works performed by VNHUTF under the scientific supervision of E. I. Zababakhin were marked by high government awards: received 10 Lenin and 20 State Prizes, 4 employees of VNUTF became Heroes of Socialist Labor, many employees received orders and medals of the USSR." Page 15 adds: "In recent years, the VNUIIP team under the leadership of E. I. Zababakhin has been actively involved in search of ways to reduce fragmentation [fission fragment residual radioactivity] activity in special atomic and thermonuclear charges of high purity, intended for overburden work. To extinguish a flowing gas well under the guidance and directly with the participation of E. I. Zababakhin, a special small-
caliber atomic charge was created."
ABOVE: first Russian MIRV for SLBM was 170 kt yield, 170 kg mass warhead (1974); the first Russian MIRV for ICBM use was a 210 kt yield, 210 kg mass warhead (1978). Both of these signify the 1 kt/kg limit achievable for the small-diameter MIRV warheads (2 MIRV's in the SLBM missile, 3 warheads in the bigger ICBM), using the dual linear-implosion Russian thermonuclear design. However, Russia had earlier put 1 megaton 650 kg, i.e. 1.5 kt/kg "monoblock" (single warhead) on SLBM's in 1974. The design here was more efficient, since it used two spherical primary stages (one on each side of the central thermonuclear charge), rather than two linear-implosion primary charges around the thermonuclear charge which had to be used in the later, smaller-diameter MIRV warheads. All of these weapons employing two primary stages were less "efficient" than the single-primary two-stage Western designs, but they had advantages to Russia in terms of the reduced cost and complexity. (In WWII, cheap Russian tanks overrun more costly German Panzer tanks, because of their sheer numerical superiority: Russia could afford to employ several of their cheaper tanks to destroy one Panzer. Having two primaries means you can use simpler, cheaper primary stages, that don't require boost gas, etc. Russian warheads are mass-produced, unlike hand
crafted Western devices. It is the Ford Model-T versus the Rolls Royce Silver Ghost. Which made the most impact?)
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Warhead for the first multiple reentry vehicle of a sea-launched ballistic missile. As thermonuclear charge and devices of the automation system, which have minimal developers, the project was called "One Hundred per Hundred" (to accommodate 11 charge). The dense layout of the components of the warhead made it possible to cr that meets the requirements for placing three warheads on one launch vehicle. The kt/kg objective suggests it has a yield of 170 kt if design yield was achieved. The p
The first warhead of a mult aiming at aiming points, w service in 1978. Again, the
SLBM non-MIRV, weight
These examples suggest that dual linear imploded primary devices gave 1 kt/kg; du
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a \
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Byiitr:
The book on the history of the creation, formation and RFNC - VNIITF in the deve operation of Test Sector 12 (NIO-12) of the External USSR
Testing Department was compiled based on the A witness and participant memoirs of direct participants in nuclear testing. deeds and problems assoc
equipment for artillery am 2015 systems and not only. The
readers interested in the F ISBN 978-5-902278-73-3 http://vniitf.ru/rubric/books and the RFNC - VNIITF. ac
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R X
€ > C A Notsecure | vniitf.ru/rubric/books
POAU-BHUNTO = ABOUTTHECOMPANY THESCIENCE PRODUCTS AND SERVIC
POCATOM
RFNC - VNIITF in the development — USSR
8 steumon apiunnepwn ct Awitness and participant in the events tells about people, their deeds a equipment for artillery ammunition for artillery and mortar systems and
readers interested in the history of the Soviet atomic project and the RF
2011
ISBN 978-5-902278-57-3 UDC 623.418(09)
LBC 31.4(2R36)
K43
VIEW EXCERPT REQUEST A BOOK
ABOVE: this book, RFNC-VNIITF in the Development of the atomic artillery of the USSR, is available online in full here: http://elib.biblioatom.ru/text/kiryushkin_rfyats-vniitf-atomnoy-artillerii_2011/go,0/. Published in 2011, it confirms the secret CIA report from 2000 which gave evidence that Russian work in the 1960s on cleaner peaceful low-yield (subkiloton) small-diameter dual linear-implosion devices compressing levitated pushers with gaseous thermonuclear fuel (tritium and deutertum) was combined with tactical nuclear weapons for military use by the RFNC-VNIITF based in Snezhinsk, Russia. Such devices may well be more efficient as neutron bombs than the USA's single-primary W79 enhanced neutron weapon, which was 0.8 kt fission and only 0.3 kt fusion (if the
removable D+T capsule was inserted; if not it was just a pure fission 0.8 kt linear implosion shell). Please also see this book on the
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assembly of the 50 megaton RDS-202 test design, again in Russian, giving further details of the general approach to nuclear warhead design by Russia, showing on page 38, chapter 4 section 4.1, "Assembly of the main module", that Tsar Bomba 50 megaton bomb's fusion charge was a hollow sphere (of Li6D) with section 4.2 indicating that it had a composite core (e.g. U235 and Pu239) fissile sparkplug (illustrated below): http://elib.biblioatom.ru/text/kiryushkin_kuzkina-mat_2015/g0,0/?bookhl=
2015 book: Translated from the Russi
Chapter 4 The product "202" is prepared for full-scale tests!
(Fusion charge is hollow sphere) 4.1. Assembly of the main module
The assembly of the module was carried out exactly on schedule (09.08.56). | remember well that the next day after the assembly, where | participated in the work of the acceptance commission, a technical meeting was held [12] at the main coordinator of the Research Institute-1011 to discuss the results of theoretical design and experimental work on the product RDS-202, which | was
invited too.
‘The module was assembled under normal conditions, with uncontrolled humidity in the assembly shop. The moisture-proof coating applied to parts made of lightweight material, developed according to our technical task in the laboratory of special production (based in production buildings 33 and 26), which was led by V. N. Purusov, allowed to remove the requirements for air humidity in the assembly room. This coating has found further application and development in the nuclear dawn- completion, removing the requirements for the humidity of the assembly rooms in the mass production of this type of units.
To represent the scale of the module assembly, here is a small picture.
During the assembly of the module, before checking the gaps in the joints of the faces of the five- and six-sided elements that formed a spherical layer after laying in the lower hemisphere of the housing (as in a bowl), sending them into place to seal and align the gaps in the joints of the faces (with the aim of further filling the gaps with gaskets) was carried out by an employee of the Istomin plant*
not with his hands, and with his feet OF in slippers. “dancing” on the “naughty” part inside the bowl - the housing of the module. Of course, such an action was not
provided for in the instructions for assembling the module, but the scope of work allowed it (even required it: instead of using the efforts of the hands, use the strength of the legs), and with the permission of all members of the commission, he - a
young member of the commission and an official representative of the OTC,
an athlete-athlete - found a way out of the difficult situation.
4.2. Critical mass measurements of the main node of the primary module
Before assembling the primary module, control critical mass measurements were carried out. By this time, the main node for the primary module was also received from Plant No. 817 . The details of this node were fulfilled-
> Unfortunately, | don't remember his (ti and patronymi
Primary = main (fusion) central charge
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The prod
they are made of a spe the product "202". The and B.A. Predein, toc the physical characte! out a set of control p on the equipment of K warm- Gustovsky nigh official working day e| busy with their pers« the next day. In the pr ‘repeat. It also took tim and to capture the feat
4.3. Acceptance of the I
Acceptance of the following order of the Mil
"1. To check the 2( drawings and specific Institute-1011, and to ac
Iskra A.D. - Chairman o
K. |. - member of the c
E. A. - member of th:
Grechishnikov V. F. - m Pokrovsky N. V. - merr
Vasyukov A.M. - membe
Shvilkin N. G. - membe
2. Finished, asser of KB-11 and special < together with a set of documentation for the and technical docume
Institute-1011, are pre of KB-11 T. Muzrukov
3. The Act Commis conclusion on its suitability '
The acceptance of th specialists from KB-11, and was headed by a re
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LIAPb BOMBA
|
Li6D 500 kilotons
500kt spark plug Pu/U235
TRYTRON Void (air VACUUM TUBE lens) HIGH CURRENT, = HIGH SPEED 4 Mt SWITCHES FOR — DOUBLE PRIMARY
LEFT: rear inspection
cover shown removed in film
RIGHT: nose bomb
V /a shown in film ‘ (nose cone removed) >
THE CONNECTORS TO EACH OF TWO 500 KT BOMBS ARE CLEARLY VISIBLE IN THE FILM
ABOVE: latest declassified information on design of the 1961, 50 megaton RDS-202 Tsar Bomba shows it contained a central hollow sphere made up of lego like pentagons of lithium deuteride which has to be assembled by a worker stamping on them in slippers (inside each huge hemisphere), and contained a central 500 kt hollow composite core spark-plug (to fission the lithium in the compressed Li6D to give tritium for fusion). This better accounts for the actual weight of the device than a solid central sphere, and also explains the 2-3% fission yield better. Two "pear-shaped" 1.6 Mt 1955 two-stage RDS37's were scaled down to 500 kt each, to act as initiators of the main charge in 50 Mt RDS202, irradiating its pusher from both sides. (The discussion of evidence declassified of this design later in this post
will, for simplicity, omit the details of the hollow central spherical fusion charge and its fissile core.)
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1.6 Mt RDS-37 (1955) NepsuyHpin was “
BTODUYHbIN MOAYNb | pear-shaped : 4
The 500 kt bombs
used in 1961 RDS-202 | were scaled down versions
Ocnot onbITHOrO B Hac) BEACHbI O¢ Ipear 1. Me; 2. Oct H31e1HH. Own
Point 1955 shap:
Declassified fusion stage design book! Uy
ABOVE: the original 6 June 1956 report on the design for a 25 ton air drop test, RDS202, had a predicted yield of about 38 megatons and was a derivative from the two-stage RDS-37 test of 1955. It was postponed (not cancelled) by a request on 16 May 1957, owing to
successful tests of products 245 and 205, and the final test of the approximately 25 ton bomb in 1961 employed an improved double-
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Neo 208
Atomic project of the [in 3 volumes] / Ed. ed Hydrogen bomb, 1945-
Oruer HMV-1011 no o60cHospanuto KoHCTpyKUMH HM pacyetam u3geana PJTC-202
= " 6 mons 1956 1! corporation. Energy "I 6 June 1956 report on the use of the Cos. cekpemno (responsible comp.), P tested RDS-37 two-stage thermonuclear (Oco6oii BaxkHOCTH) B pe3yibtaTe conacoBaHHa T design to develop a 25 ton, 38 megaton bomb: 9x3. No ] VW BO3MOXHOCTeli CaMoNeTa-HOC RDS-202. Bcero H3e1Ms, a AMeHHO: . Ocnoenoie pacuemnoie Oannoie PJTC-202 ¥ Note that this . ae a is ob tt Be design was aM. Tl. KOHCTpykTopa 3a6a6axuH E.V. jMaMeTp HayasibHuk | cexTopa PomaHos 1O.A. Tlo ycnoBNAM UCMbITaHHA B: changed when
v3qe0us c caMoueta. IIpn B3pbit
tested with 50 Mt in 1961 Beedenue co60M COxpaHHTb CaMONeT-HOCH
B HacToslliem oTyeTe H310KeCHO O6OCHOBaHHe KOHCTpykKuMH PJIC-202 u ocHos- NPHMCHeHHE fapaltoTa 1A H31) Hbl€ pacueTHble TaHHble ITOTO U3LeNHA. JIMFOLUEe CAMONCTY 3a STO BPeMA
B pe3yibrate ycreliHoro 3apepluicHHa pador KB-11 no PJLC-37 u ero ucnbi- Heo6xoxMMoctb NpHMeHMTb TaHHA ObLI OKOHYATeEAbBHO NpOBepeH HOBbIM MpHHUMN KOHCTpyHpoBaHHsA W3Lerni, YaCTH M3 MMEIONIAXCA BECOB H Of NO3BOMAIOWIMM CO3MaBaTb U31eIKA OFHb OOMbWIOM MOWHOCTH Cc BbICOKHM KIT. HCNOb3OBaHBI AIA NOBBILWEHHA PesystbTaTbl Bcex pa6or no H3qemHI0 PJC-37 noKa3a1M, ¥TO Ha 9TOM NPHHUHTe Mo- PAC-202 noctpoexo no npr TYT ObITh CO3TaHbI H31e1HA C TPOTHOBbIM JKBHBAICHTOM B OecamKU U OaaxKe COMHU YHTCIbHBIMM Pa3McpaMH, CBA3A) MUAAUOHO6 MOHH, a TAKXKE TMO3BONWIM OWCHATh HeEOOXOAMMbIle JWI TAaKMX W3(eTHi slepHOro roplouero HM ropa3ylo 6 KOJIMYECTBA AKTHBHDIX BeLUeCTB (MlaBHbIM O6pasom Li®D). Gai)
OTH BbIBOJbI HM OLHKH HV MOCIYXKHIN OCHOBaHHeM JIA [BblIadH] 3aaHHst HallieMy PacueTHoe oOcieq0BaHHe ps MHCTHTYTY Ha pa3spaborky HoBoro u3HeNINA PILC-202, 3HaquTeIbHO NpeBocxosAMero Beca Li°D oKon0 (...) Ke, H OHO TIO MOLWHOCTH BCe H3MeIHA, MCMbITAHHbIe 10 HaCTOALWerO BpeMecHH Kak B CCCP, PMaHTOB MOMLHOCTb 3aMeTHO TIp Tak u B CILIA. M HoctTuraeT Mo pacyety 38 MJIH
B saaHM Ha MpoeKTHpoBaHHe MpesyCMOTpeHa MOLLHOCTD H3/eA HM KOAMYECTBO mia PJLC-202 MoxeT ObITb 3Ha4l Li°®D, KoTopoe MoxeT 6bITb B HEM H3PaCXOMOBaHO, a MMCHHO MOMHbIii TPOTHOBBIii 9KBUBAICHT NOXKCH CocTaBUTbh 20-30 max m, oOuiee KonMYecTBO Li®D (c (...)% *) MakTH4eckad MOLLHOCTb O/DKH cojlepxkaHHem H30TOMAa Li®) — no (...) moun. B JeHCTBHTEIbHOCTH AeMTCA C GOLF
ENGLISH TRANSLATION: (Note: the planned R No 208 1957 after successful
the basic concept of 1
Nil-1011 report on the justification of the desi p } aa around 25 tons was r
calculations of the RDS-202 product
NOTE: This 6 June 1956 report states that
they can produce up to about 38 Mt from June 6, 1956 1 As a result of the coordination of a 25 ton bomb, using RDS-37 principles. Say secret product and the aia of the carrier . a (of special importance) product are established, namely:
The later revised design used the 1958 tested Ext. No. 1 Senegal Trutnev "double diameter- uy approach" system, Basic calculation data of RDS-202 According to the test conditions, about 2.5 times Deputy Chief Designer Zababakhin E.l. the product is dropped from the airer more efficient. Head of ee Yu.A. force, the only way to save the carrie; radiation is to use a parachute for the This report outlines the rationale for the design of the RDS-202 and the and allows the aircraft to go a long di basic design data of this product. The need to use a parachute req As a result of the successful completion of the work of KB-11 on of the available weights and volumes RDS-37 and its testing, a new principle of product design was finally tested used to increase the efficiency of the , which makes it possible to create products of very high power with high RDS-202 is built on the princip! efficiency. The results of all work on the RDS-37 product showed that products only in significant dimensions, assoc with a TNT equivalent of tens or even hundreds of millions of tons can be use of nuclear fuel and much greate!
created on this principle , and also allowed us to estimate the amounts of active Ga) substances necessary for such products (mainly Li°D). A design survey of a number of d These conclusions and assessments served as the basis for [issuing] a task of Li°D of about (...) kg, and it show to our institute for the development of a new RDS-202 product, significantly variants, the power significantly exce exceeding in power all products tested to date both in the USSR reaches 38 million t* according to t! and in the USA. of Li°D for RDS-202 can be significe
The design assignment provides for the capacity of the product and the amount of Li °D that can be consumed in it, namely, the total TNT equivalent
“the actual power should be slightly hi should be 20-30 million tons, the total amount of Li ° D (with (...) % content actually divided with a larger cross-section tha
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of the isotope Li ”) - up to (...) tons.
approach system suggested by Trutnev and others which was capable of increasing the yield by a factor of about 2.5 from the RDS-37
single-approach principle (first tested in 1958), due to its better x-ray coupling efficiency for main fusion charge compression. However,
the 1961 test was only 50 Mt not 100 Mt, because it switched the U238 pusher to lead to reduce the fallout and the blast effect.
Soviet cloud | underv took p Site Ni The lo Russia positic kilome subma sheep, Only o 300 mi
1953 400kt h bomb
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Academician Yu.B.Khariton in the RFNC- VNIIE museum near the body of the RDS-1 bomb. Museum of Nuclear Weapons RFNC- VNNIEF, 1993
This was a 22 kt Russian copy of the American Trinity test. Russian 1949 test site before and after photos are shown below
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General view of the 1949 test shortly after the explosion from a distance of 5000 meters along the southeast radius. (Minatom archive )
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Bsapbie nepeok atomHoi GomGpi PJIC- 1 Explosion of the first atomic bomb (RDS -1)
General view of the 1949 test shortly after the explosion from a distance of 5000 meters along the southeast radius. (Minatom archive )
The first Russian nuclear test, 22 kt on top of a 37.5 “ high tower, was connected to a network of 560 km ¢ "erg ''', < Bomb ~ __sinstrumentation cables, which coupled the EMP effe BiG tower| “ee ~—CSOtéd‘tto extensive early, practical experience of EMP kL ae a, iy (left) out for Russia.
and Only 368 out of 1538 animals exposed were killed, t.
. : goose 4% being adequately protected in simple shelters (an a)" towers ey experiment not done at the American Trinity test), |
aes 3 ans ake aa
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ce 2 an (nr oi) & to the extensive Russian civil defense despite HiroslI mrt
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40 kt RDS4 Russian tactical nuclear troop test at 350m altitude WW2 hero Marshall Zhukov sent 45,000 troops into the fallout ¢
ABOVE: 40 kt RDS4 Russian test, air dropped and detonated 350m above the Totskoye, 14 September 1954, in WW2 hero Marshall
Zhukov's exercise of 45,000 Russian troops in tactical nuclear war (copying America's Nevada "Desert Rock" nuclear tests with troops in
trenches near GZ). A whole book has been published about the radiation effects from this test, showing that the gamma radiation
was 140 R/hr at 30 minutes, at 200 m from ground zero, decaying to 0.8 R/hr at 24 hours, and that a peak fallout gamma dose rate
of 100 mR/hr occurred 1.5 hours after burst 70 km downwind, where the fallout pattern was 23 km wide. (These are useful data to
have, since Russia has not yet openly published anything like America's DASA-1251 fallout patterns compendium.) This is relevant to
the whole question of whether Russia really thinks it can use tactical nuclear weapons for military objectives in a limited war: it
has actually done the nuclear tests long ago. It is not theoretical!
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~~,
1949 RDS-1 nuclear test targ
Emergency Exits for Basement Shelters
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
w Ganrepnanbeeix (GwonormvecuNx) cpencTe.
By the eariy 1960s there was a good deal of hard evidence that . considerable amount of shelter space in factories as well as public anc apartment buildings had been built, and that the Moscow and Lenin grad subways had been equipped with concealed blast doors at thi entrances to the station platforms and in connecting crosswalks.* Ar ongoing debate in the U.S. at that time concerning the existence of i Soviet civil defense program was largely resolved when, in 1962, U.S military attaches and newsmen visited the Permanent Civil Defense Exhibit in Moscow and learned how to identify the telltale externa features of Soviet shelters, namely their emergency exits, which ar normally located at some distance from the building housing the shel ter. Commenting on his visit to this exhibit, New York Times corre spondent Seymour Topping reported in March 1962:
The above ground extensions of shelters now identifiable have been found to be numerous in Moscow. Travelers have seen them in other Soviet cities too. . . . These installations can be seen in the courtyards at various distances from public buildings.”
Similiarly, the Reuters correspondent wrote that
The exhibit showed that in a construction program after the war an extensive system of shelters in basements of office and apartment build- ings was laid out."
At the same exhibit, the correspondents learned to recognize the concealed blast doors in the subways, being shown a Soviet film which revealed how “steel doors would be lifted into place by hydraulic jacks to seal off arched entrances to the platforms.’’* Unfortunately, with the rotation of U.S. Embassy personnel and newsmen, the knowledge of how to recognize Soviet shelters was subsequently lost by Americans stationed in Moscow.
‘Goure, Civil Defense in the Soviet Union (Berkeley: University of California Press 1962), pp. 79-110.
“Ibid, See also Gouré, Testimony before Subcommittee No. 3 of the Armed Service: Committee of the House of Representatives, June 17, 1963.
7The New York Times, March 23, 1962, [Emphasis added, }
"Washington Post, March 25, 1962. [Emphasis added]
‘The New York Times, March 23, 1962.
MC MHMH ODECHEYNBAIOT HAQOMIHYO JOUINTY OPTAHOR Abixaies, nas M Ama OT PARNOANTWRERIX, OTPaBneR
{i.e., with a compression ratio of 5,680 p shelters are built primarily of reinforce thick, and 4-5 feet long, or concrete pli timeters thick.
Depending on the purpose, the wall: shelters are from 0.5 to 1.2 meters thic special shelters. The roofs of basement able to bear the weight of the collapsed being made of either prefabricated reinfo concrete, 12 centimeters to 50 centimeter: meters wide, the roof will usually be s forced concrete every six meters. In so} placed between two layers of reinforced « detached shelters, the roof plates will be earth.
Considerable attention is paid to the ¢ blast shelters, making use of various structural components, such as pipes wit as well as reinforced concrete blocks 2-3 plates,*? Normally, such shelters are bi angle or straight entrance and blast door is then covered with 2-4 feet of earth. As estimated to be able to withstand from 1:
The wide variety of fallout shelters is ¢ effective protection against radiation, ra! Basements in one-story houses or semib bricking in the windows and banking ea as by placing 1-2 feet of earth on the flo ceiling with several upright beams. This | ation coefficient by 300.** For dugouts ai be made of round timber, boards, bricks, on, covered with 2-3 feet of earth. The de will vary (between 10 and 550), dependir straight or right angle entrances, and wh used as cover. According to Soviet publi
~ 8Ostroukh, Stroitel’stve, p. 4; also, “From Pre-fa 8, August 1972, pp. 24-26; and “Where There bs 1974, p. 24; Voennye Znaniia, No. 5, May 1975, p. 39 p. 30. ™Akimov and Il'in, Grazhdanskaia Oborona na Ob
a
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ia
layout model
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YKPbIGaeEMbIX MOMKHO OG6OpyAOGaTb U3 *KepAEeN. https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 115/510
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Russian shelter built in 15 hours by the 14 occupants
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TPAMOABCBHAR O60POHN COOP
NPOTHBOPAARALMOHHBIE SKPbITHA K3 NECOMATEPRANOB
TAKME YKPbITUA MOLYT NONYYKTb HAVBONLWEE PACNPOCTPAHEHME. TAK KAK ANA UX CTPOWTENbCTBA
UCNONL3YETCA WUPOKOMOCTYNHUA MATEPVAN—HEOGPAGOTAHHBIE BPEBHA. KEPAM. A TAKXKE KOHCTPYKLIUM CTAPbIX J\EPEBAHHbIX CTPOEHAA.
BTU COOPYXKEHUA OCNABNAIOT MEACTBKE PAQUALI“M B 200-400 PAS B 3ABMCWMOCTU OT 3AMMYENEHMA Mw TONUWIMHbI FPYHTOBORM OGCbINKM.
ANTI-RADIATION SHELTERS MADE OF TIMBER
SUCH SHELTERS CAN BECOME THE MOST WIDESPREAD, SINCE WIDELY AVAILABLE MATERIAL IS USED FOR THEIR CONSTRUCTION-UNTREATED LOGS, POLES, AS WELL AS STRUCTURES OF OLD WOODEN BUILDINGS.
THESE STRUCTURES WEAKEN THE EFFECT OF RADIATION BY 200 TO 400 TIMES, DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH AND THICKNESS OF THE SOIL DUSTING.
1972 Anti-Radiation shelters made of timber poster: protection factors of 200-400 (50-70cm earth cover)
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Rung Rung Rung Rung Rung Rung Rung Rung Rung
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
1. Ostensible Crisis
2. Political, Economic, and Diplomatic Gestures 3. Solemn and Formal Declarations
4. Hardening of Positions—Confrontation of Wills a 6 7 8
Show of Force
. Significant Mobilization
. “Legal” Harassment—Retortions . Harassing Acts of Violence
a, Rung 10. Rung 11. Rung 12. Rung 13. Rung 14. Rung 15. Rung 16. Rung 17. Rung 18. Rung 19. Rung 20. Rung 21. Rung 22. Rung 23. Rung 24. Rung 25. Rung 26. Rung 27. Rung 28. Rung 29. Rung 30. Rung 31. Rung 32. Rung 33. Rung 34. Rung 35. Rung 36. Rung 37. Rung 38. Rung 39. Rung 40. Rung 41. Rung 42. Rung 43. Rung 44.
Dramatic Military Confrontations
Provocative Breaking Off of Diplomatic Relations Super-Ready Status
Large Conventional War (or Actions)
Large Compound Escalation
Declaration of Limited Conventional War
Barely Nuclear War
Nuclear “Ultimatums”
Limited Evacuation (Approximately 20 per cent) Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force “Justifiable” Counterforce Attacks
“Peaceful” World-Wide Embargo or Blockade Local Nuclear War—Exemplary
Declaration of Limited Nuclear War
Local Nuclear War—Military
Unusual, Provocative, and Significant Countermeasures Evacuation (Approximately 70 per cent) Demonstration Attack on Zone of Interior Exemplary Attack on Military
Exemplary Attacks Against Property
Exemplary Attacks on Population
Complete Evacuation (Approximately 95 per cent) Reciprocal Reprisals
Formal Declaration of “General” War Slow-Motion Counter-“Property” War Slow-Motion Counterforce War
Constrained Force-Reduction Salvo
Constrained Disarming Attack Counterforce-with-Avoidance Attack
Unmodified Counterforce Attack
Slow-Motion Countercity War
Countervalue Salvo
Augmented Disarming Attack
Civilian Devastation Attack
Some Other Kinds of Controlled General War Spasm or Insensate War
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AAA Diagram of a Basement Shelter in a Six-Story, Non-Industrial Building
Inclined Ramp
1/2 Height of Building
San ("Ladd ddgugiiiaaaaaaaiiaaada, 2 4
SS SOOssss
SSS
REAGAN
Basement Shelter in the center of a building basement: (1) compartments; (2) exits; (3) and (4) protective airtight doors; (5) louvered wooden door; (6) vestibule; (7) protective airtight shutters; (8) shutter with dust filter; (9) filter-ventilation chamber; (10) lavatories; (11) exhaust duct; (12) sealing safety valve; (13) basic air intake duct; (14) pressurized pipes; (15) emergency exit; (16) adjoining chamber; (17) airtight safety shutter in emergency exit; (18) floating cutoff valve; (19) vent cap of the emergency exit; (20) wooden louver
erating
Basement Shelters
(1) storage for reserve of drinking water; (2) storage for a five-day supply of food; (BD) hermetically-sealing metal doors, height 1.8 m
Pillars of reinforced concrete 0.65 m Xx 0.65 m X 3m
REMARKS; All dimensions are in millimeters
Cross Section of a Basement Shelter Using Prefabricated
U-Plates and Cast Reinforced Concrete Slab Roof Dr Leon Goure, Shelters in Soviet War Sur
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Joe-4 (RDS-6) 400 kt Teller "alarm clock"-design H-bomb photo taken 15 seconds after detonation 12 August 1953
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28 KT RDS-4 AIR BURST AT 600 M ALTITUDE, 1953
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5.B. NUTBY
ATOMHAA
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Litvinov BV Atomic energy not only for military purposes: monograph / BV Litvinov; Russian Academy of Sciences, Ural branch. - Yekaterinburg, 2004. - 560 pp
550
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Me MH TeEXHONOrHMK»y POCcCCHHK
B kHure npegctasnenbi ZocTuxKe-
STRATEGIC HUA CaMOuW HayKOeMKOM OTpacnu NUCLEAR FORCES
Poccuu — paspa6orka u aKcnnya- Tauua sgepHbix Goenpunacos, ux yTunusauna, aTOMHas SHEpretuka. Oco6oe sHuMaHve yoeneHo agep- HOM MU PaguayMoHHON GesonacHo- ctu, 3konoruu u GesonacHoctu XpaHeHMA AQepHbIX MaTepuanoB.
AAEPHDIN OPYKEWHbIM KOMMUTEKC
. d 1 ya ~ en NUCLEAR WEAPONS COMPLEX
The XX Century Encyclopedia
This volume is dedicated to Russia's most sophisticated indus- EoCmeeecK Es CPLACTRA _-. try — development, operation and peananeeages 11) see utilization of nuclear munitions, and nuclear power. Special atten- tion is given to nuclear and radia- tion safety, ecology and safety of storage of nuclear materials.
Russia’
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COAEPKAHUE
C. Vsaroa AnepHoi OpyKeHplA KOMNNEKC.. ~~. eee ee eee
C. Kupuexxo O cocrosnmnu 4 nepcnextnsax AQepHorO
OpyxeHHoro KOMNNeKCa KM ATOMHOK BHEpreTHKH.........8 ....
MM. Kamexcxnx Hay4Ho-npom3B0qcTBeHHbiA CeKTOp AAepHOorO opyxe#Horo Komnnexkca Poccum......... poe
Jl. Pabes
CONTENTS
S. Ivanov Nuclear Weapons Complex
S. Kirilenko State and Prospects of the Nuclear Weapons Complex and Nuclear Power
1, Kamenskikh Scientific and Production Sector
. of the Russian Nuclear Weapons Complex
L. Ryabev
Aromnpiii npoext CCCP w coppemennoctb.............34 .... Nuclear Project of the USSR and Present Time
PA3PABOTKA AAEPHbDIX BOENPMNACOB
DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR MUNITIONS
Koopavnauna paspaGotok, nepegayu Ha BOOpyxKeHne
¥ ConpoBoxgeHns akcnnyaTaunn sgepHbIx Goenpunacos .. 42
OFyN «POCCMACKMA DEAEPANbHBIA AAEPHbIM LEHTP - BCEPOCCHACKMA HAYYHO-MCCNEAOBATESIbCKMA MHCTUTYT
SKCNEPUMEHTASIBHOM OUSHKM» (POAL-BHUMS®) ...46.....
XponnKa ocHosHbIx paboT H AOCcTHXKeHH POAL|-BHAMS® . . 50
O6pasusi sgepHoro opyxua (axcnonarTe!t myzen POALL-BHUMS®) .... Nepsas atomHan Gom6a CCCP. . Neppan Taktuveckas Cepnitnan atomHan Gom6a . Nepsan soAcponHan Gombe . . .
Nepsas sqepHas Goesas 4acTb ANH TAaKTMYeCKOR PaKeTH! enn OF eas
Tepmoagepysi Goeeon Grok ana nepaoh MEXKOHTMMEHTANEHOK GannvcTMyecKon pakeTel Cc pasMenAOWelicn TONOBHOM NaCTbWO.. . ‘ Nepean snepran Goesan vacTb Ana GannvctHyeckon pakeTbi CpegHero paguyca AevCTBMA, . Nepean TepmongepHan Goesan 4yacTb
ANA MEXKOHTMHEHTanbHOr GannucTu4ecKkon paketbl........- 55
Caman MOWHaR B mMmMpe aKkcnepHMenTanbHaa Bomoponnan GomGa.............- Tepmongeprble 6oesbie act
ANA ONEPATUBHO-TAKTMNECKMX PAKET ......5-- TepmMongepHbi boes8or Gnox ANA paKeTo! cpeaHero panmyca LevcTaMs C paanennOWwencA FONOBHOM 4ACTRK «2... eee
AgepHo-opyxeiinan AeaTenbHocte .... . Teopetmyeckne MccnegoBaknA M MaTeMaTM4eckoe mogenuposannve . Hay4HO-KOHCTpyKTopcKve paGoT....... Tagoanvamnyeckve MOCNEMOBAHMA ....
Salwar 55
‘sae es . 56
Coordination of Nuclear Munitions Developments, Commissioning and In-service Support
FSUE «RUSSIAN FEDERAL NUCLEAR CENTER - ALL-RUSSIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF EXPERIMENTAL PHYSICS» (VNIIEF)
Milestones of the VNIIEF Efforts and Achievements
Specimens of Nuclear Weapons
(Exhibits of the VNIIEF Museum)
USSR''s first A-bomb
First serial tactical A-bomb
First H-bomb
First nuclear warhead for tactical missile Thermonuclear combat unit for the first intercontinental ballistic missile with a multiple
. reentry warhead
First nuclear warhead for medium-range
. ballistic missile
First thermonuclear warhead for intercontinental ballistic missile
World's most powerful experimental
H-bomb
Thermonuclear warheads for operational
. tactical missiles
Thermonuclear combat unit for medium-range missile with a multiple reentry warhead
Nuclear Weapons Activities Theoretical research and mathematical
. modeling . Research and development . Gas-dynamic research
Viccnenoranua Te SeWeECTB Np 3KC # Temneparypel . Viccnenosanua mh Viccnenosanva 8 PyHpamentanbHe cbuauKu Teepgor’ cemunapa «KANV Uccnegoranns nm ¥ MiOOHHOTO cnes Uccnenoearna 6 CBY snexTpoHuKx Vccnegoeanna eB CYNEPKOHMbIX Np: PTOp-vOHHeix 6a Uccnegosanue v peakumit CHHTESe Uccnenosanue ak Onpenenenue mz
Paspa6orka uc o6bINHbIx BOOpy
PaGors! 8 rpaxy MexayHaponHoe
2 Oryn «POCCKHE BCEPOCCMMCK MM. AKAQEMUI (POAL-BHUUT
Cosganue anep w Goenpunacos
@u3uKo-sxcnep Vimnynecupie ane Kpurmaccoswe Vimnynecueie yor Skcnepumentant rpasuTauMoHHor Jlazepras yctaHi
Hay4Ho-nccnez komnmekc (HAV
Nponssogcrsei
HaysHo-TexHmy yextpe: BHUMT Hay4Ho-TexHmue O6bIMHbEIx 6oeBbe annapatypel. . .
Asapuitro-TexHy HayyHo-TexHu4e ¢pusvyeckon 3au AePHbIx MaTepy Haysno-TexHuve AQEPHOK sHEpre Orpacnesom Wer GesonacHOcTbo
DynAamenrant
Npuxnagupie vw
ARePHO-PagvauMOnHble MCCNEAOBAHMA. . . Nuclear radiation research MexayxapoaH Uccneposanna 8 oSnactn mysukn nasepos Research in laser and high-temperature
W BbICOKOTEMNEPATYPHOM MNGIMbI. 6. eee 69 .. plasma physics Koneepews. . . VicnbitaTenbrbi KoMnNeKC . wees 75 . Testing complex
NpowssoNcTBeHHO-TeXHONOrMYeCKMA KOMMNEKC . . 81..... Production and technology complex
OGecneyenne GesonaCHOCTH ... 6... eee eee eee ees 82..... Safety assurance 3 OFyN «BCEPOI OGecneyenme GeaonacHoctu npu akcnnyaTaunn Safety assurance in operation of nuclear HAYYHO-MCCS AMEPHbIX GOENPUNACOB .... ee eee eee a munitions WHCTHTYT ABI Mnamyeckan JaulviTa, YYET M KONTPONb ADEPHbIX Physical protection, accounting and control
MATEPMANOB 4 PANMOAKTMBHDIX BELUECTB . 0... eee of nuclear materials and radioactive substances Paspa6orxa aa
Npwrxumn paGote ACM ......... Yrunusaunn Goenpwnacos, CHATHIX C BOOPYKeHMA
. ADMS operation Disposal of decommissioned munitions
Cuctemp! snex VHKMUMMPOBaHY
@yxhfamentansupie H NpHKnagHBie MCCHeAOBAHMA.......92..... Fundamental and Applied Research Annaparypa nop Pacyerwo-TeopeTwyeckoe Mogenvposanne Theoretical calculation and simulation ANS AQEPHeIx HC CASIOSECKIEE FIOLII COO 6:5) 0j0:0;0:00iainte he are aiuieinia: cis oye Seana 92 of physical processes
Uccnenosanna no MHepuvanbHomy TepMOAAepHOMy CuHTesy... 93 ., Viccnegosakun no COsAaHMWw HMePHO-NasepHbIX YCTPOACTB HENpepbIsHOrOG AeEACTBUA .. .
Research in inertial thermonuclear fusion Studies for development of nuclear-pumped con- tinuous wave lasers
:
Cucrembi neTH W KOHTponbHO- Peructpypyouls
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PASPABOTKA AAEPHbIX BOENPHMNACOB
DEVELOPMENT VUE AR WU MiGs
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1946 - 9 anpens aplwno np HMe O COsfAaHMM NepBOrO B Hay4Ho-uccnenosaTenbcKoro KB-11 ana KoHCcTpyupoBaHus asuratenei C» (PAC).
1948-1954 - npennoxex, BbIA NDMHUMN HEMTPOHHOrO vu AOB, 4TO NOsBONUNO Cywec HOCTb UX NEVCTBHR,
1949 — nocTpoena ycTaHo! Ha ObICTDbIx HETPOHaX), Ha Ki HO ONpegeneHbi KpYuTMYeCKHI Ha-235 2A NEPBbIX ATOMHBIX : rycta ycnewHo ucnbiraxa ner PQC-1 #a CemunanatuHcKkom
1951 — nposeneno nepsoe HO GomGbI C KaYeCTBeHHO | ccpepuyeckoro o6xkaTus. Hor WMTb Maccy “3RenNA NO Cpe €FO MOLWHOCTb Gonee 4eM B A
1953 - 12 asrycra ucnbiraH HO TpaHCcnopraGenbHon aBu
1955 — 22 Hos6pa ucneitar UMNMaNbHO HOBOM cbusMyecK¢
1957 - o6ecneyeH npopbis TEPMCTMK AAEPHbIX 3apAAoB.
1958 - ucnbitaH Tepmorge BaHHOW dusnyeckon cxemoid, Tua TEPMOAAEPHOrO OpyxKua.
1961 - 30 oxra6ps ucnbirané 50 meraToHH Ha Hogogement BOSMOXHOCTb COSMaHuR CBEpXx
JTunettuni undyxquonnonl ycxopame The LIU-10 linear induction electron
t= —
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O6pasyb! AepHoro OpyxKua (My3e”r Pd
‘San y Nepsaa TakTuyeckaan sco OGpasybl AQepHoro opyxKun cepuiiHaa aTomMHan 606;
| (a2«cnoHaTb! My3en P®AL-BHUMS®)
Vicnbiraka 6 1953 roay Ha Cemuna Moujkoctb 3gapaga go 30 KT TpoTuno! BoopyxeHun c 1954 no 1965 rona.
Specimens of Nuclear Weapons (Exhibits of the VNIIEF Museum)
NMepsBaa aTOoMHan 6om6a CCCP USSR’s first A-bomb
Agaeproi# 3apag ucnbitak 29 asrycta 1949 ropa Ha Cemn- The nuclear charge was tested at the Semipalatinsk Test nanaTMHckOM nonvrone. MouwocTe sapaga go 20 KT TpoTu- Site on August 29, 1949. Yield: up to 20 kt. NOBOrO SKBUBANeHTA.
Nepsan BogopogHasn 6om
ApepHbié sapag ucnbitay 12 asryct nanaTWHCKOM NoNuroHe. MOWHOCTb 3z nogoro 3kBvBaneHTa.
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Development of nuclear munitions
~% Paspa6orTKa AgepHbix 6oenpunacoe
Nepsas agepHas 6o0eBasn YacTb ANA TAKTMYECKON pakeTbI
MouwiHocrs 3apaga go 10 kT TpoTMnoBoro akBuBaneHta. Jlanb- HOCTb noneta 40 32 kM. Ha BOOpyxeHun Cc 1960 Ao 1967 roa.
TepmosgepHbin 60eB0nu 6noK
ANA NEpBOU Me@XxXKOHTMHEHTAaNbHOU 6annuctTuyeckonu pakeTbi
Cc pasmenstowuevica FrONOBHOU YacTbto
MouwHocts 3apaga Gonee 2 Mr rpoTmnosoro 3KBuBaeHTa. AlanbHocts noneta Ao 12 000 km. Ha soopyxexuu c 1970 70 1979 roga.
ena ae a
54
First nuclear warhead
for tactical missile
Yield: up to 10 kt. Range: up to 32 km. In service in 1960-1967.
ay) p
ae fit Deals
Thermonuclear combat unit for the first intercontinental ballistic missile with a multiple reentry warhead
Yield: over 2 Mt. Range: up to 12,000 km. In service in 1970-1979.
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O6paaub! ADepHoro Opyxua (my3zer PO!
Nepsaa afepHas 6oesaa + ana 6annuctu4eckon paki cpeguvero paguyca peucTI
MouwHocTb 3apaga ao 40 KT TpoTMnoBoro okKBMBaNeH- ta. flanbiocts noneta ao 1200 km. Ha Boopyxexun Cc 1955 ao 1960 roga.
Nepsaa TepmongepHan 6c AA M@*KKOHTMHEHTAasIbHO 6annucTUYecKOnU pakeTbI
MowHoctb 3apaga 20 3 Mt tpormnosa HocTb noneta 70 8500 km, Ha soopyxKeHv
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Paspa6orka sgepHbix 6oenpunacos Development of nuclear munitions O6pasub! AgepHOro opyxua (Myser PC
Camas MOLjHaa B Mupe World’s most powerful TepmosgepHbin 6GoeBon €
3KCNepuMeHTanbHaa experimental Aa pakeTbI CpeqHero par
BOogOpomHan 6om6a H-bomb c pasgensrowevica ronog Ucnetraxa 30 oxTs6pa 1961 roga Ha nonwroHe «Hosan Tested to half-yield at the Novaya Zemlya Test Site on
Semna» Ha NONOBMHHYIO MOUHOCTb. PacueTHaR MOUHOCTb October 30, 1961. Estimated yield: over 100 Mt. 6onee 100 Mt Tpotunororo okaveanenta.
CymmapHaa MOLUHOCTE 3apaga 70 40 BaneHTa. JlanbHocTb noneta 40 5000 km Ao 1991 ropa. Cara c BOOpyxKeHuA NO,
Tepmosgepnubie 6oesbie yacTu Thermonuclear warheads AA ONepaTMBHO-TaKTUYeCKMX PakeT for operational tactical missiles
I ~ [lepean mepmondepnaa boesaa vacmy dan onepamusno-maxmuxeckol paxemet.
Mounocms sapada do 300 km mpomusoeoeo oxeusasenma. Jlassuocms nosema do 900 Km. Ha soopycenun ¢ 1965 do 1986 eoda,
2 = Tepmoadepnaa Goesan acm daa onepa- mueno-maxmuxeckou paxembt.
Mownocms sapada do 200 xm mpomusosoeo oeusasenma, Jatonocms nosema do 450 xm. Ha soopywcenuu c 1981 do 1991 coda. Cuama ¢ eoopy- acenua no Jloeosopy o PCM.
I — First thermonuclear warhead for opera- tional tactical missile.
Yield: up to 300 kt. Range: up to 900 km. In ser- vice in 1965-1986.
2 — Thermonuclear warhead for operational tactical missile.
Yield: up to 200 kt. Range: up to 450 km. In ser- vice in 1981-1991. Decommissioned under the INF Treaty.
TT Sas i ae GE EES gs SES ins 2 ee aT AS ‘elie compen So) TE aS Na ao = at a A
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AgepHo-opyxXeAHAR AeATeENbHOCTb
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Nuclear weapons activities
ux HEOOXOAMMYyIO ANA pacyeToOB MHcPopMauuMiO O CAOnCT- Bax BeEWECTB, OTPAaGOTAHb! HOBLIE TeEXHONOrMM NpoBeAe- HMA PaCdeTHO-TeOpeTMYeECKMX pabOT NO OCHOBHbIM Hanpa- BNEHVAM DEATENbHOCTH.
CeppesHple yonexm QOcTurHyTbl CneuManucTamM MHCTH- TyTa 8 cneayiouux OGnacTax:
- mogenuposaHve Ha SBM mxoromepHbix gafay dusuKn AQEPKOTO B3PbIBAa, NASEPHON MOv3vkv B NONKHOM 3aMKHyTOM MOCTaHOBKE C OAHOBPEMEHHbIM YHETOM BCeX BEAYLUMX cusn-
4Y@CKUX NPOWECCOB;
t= 15 mxc t=15us
t= 50 mxc t=50us
The VNIIEF specialists have succeeded in the following areas:
- computer-aided simulation of multivariative nuclear explo- sion and laser physics problems in a complete closed state- ment with all leading physical processes taken into account;
- studies into characteristics of turbulence; it has been for the first time that results of a range of experimental measure- ments were interpreted through direct numerical simulation of gravitational turbulent mixing using multiprocessor com- puters;
t= 140 mxc t=140us
Ipouece de@opmauua Mamepuaia npu éneunem soweicmeun A material deformation process at external effects
- necnegoBakme xapakTepucTuk TypOyneHTHOCTH: BNep- BbIe NyTeM NPAMOrO YuCNeHHOrO MOAeAMPOBaNUA rpaBuTa- uwoHHoro Typ6yneHTHOrO NepemewMBaHMA HA MHOrONpo- ueccopHbix SBM yaanoch OObACHMTb pesynetate! paga
SKCNeEPMMEHTabHeIX MSMEPeHUH;
/Tpynna 66 = a
ea ee at
Modeauposanue npoweccos mepmMoadepnoeo cunmeza Thermonuclear fasion simulation process
- development of multiprocessor computer systems and
up-to-date computer networks;
ES eT RE RS a se
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59 70
Paspa6orka AgepHbix G6oenpun
Jdanue (1) w chepuneckan Kamepa 6x yemanoenu «Hexpa-S+
The «Iskra-Se building (1)
and spherical interaction chamber (2)
(ypoBeHb HEOAHOpOAHOCTM < CKOrO NONA Ha NOBEPXHOCTH C OCYLUECTBMTb YHVKaNbHbIE MCC c¢ DT-Tonsveom B CumMeTpYyH NepYMeHTaNbHble MCCNeAOBaH NOYKM MW PeHTreHOBCKOrO Non TepMOAAEpHON MMWeHRH, pesy POBaHbI C NOMOLIbIO AByYMep- HbIX NPOrpPaMM PaQMalMOHHO! ra3sOBOW AMHaMUKU, CO3MaH- HBIX 8 UncTHTyTe TeOopeTuye- cKO MW MaTeMaTMNeCKOr mu- aux POALU-BHUMS®. Nony- 4eHO YAOBNETBOPUTENbHOe CO- macnve pe3syntTaTos axcnepn- MEHTOB 4 pacyeTos, KOTOPOE cenfeTenbcTayeT 0 xopowe’ TOYHOCTM pacYeTHOrO onuca- Hua AByMepHOrO TeYEHMA BbI- COKOTeMNepatTypHon nnasmbl Ha ycTaHoske «Vickpa-5» 3a- peructpvposaka reHepauns PeHTreHoBCKOrO ManyyeHuA © ANMHO BONHbI 10,6 HM Ha ne- pexoge J = 0 - 1 HeoHONOROB-
Tpynna 66
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Bipwe codopoduot Gombe PAC-37 22 noabpa 1955 coda na Cemunasamuncxom noaucone Explosion of the RDS-37 H-bomb at the Semipatatinsk test site on November 22, 1955
667 In the morning of September 21, 1955, the USSR's first under- water nuclear explosion was conducted in the Chernaya Bay by detonation of the T-5 torpedo warhead at a depth of 12 m. Its yield was 3.5 kt. Following automatic generation of the signal to detonate the torpedo charge, a vast pillar of water with a crown of a brightly white cloud rose from the sea. One could perfectly see as the water pillar crown evolved, gases broke through it and the base surge curl formed. Commander-in-Chief of the USSR Navy led and was respon- sible for the first underwater nuclear test.
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= Sr. 3 1
UcnbitaHua agepHeix Goenpunacoe “4 nonur
71-% nonuron BBC
MW BOUCKOBbIe y4YeHuA
Ha TOL.KOM nonuroHe
C NPUMeHeEHHeM ATOMHON 6¢
B 1950-1951 rofax wna nogroTosKa kK Huio B CCCP aTomHon Gombe! POC-3 co c6 neta 8 pexume 6Goesoro GombomeTaHua. MblTanMe COcTOANOcb 18 oxTASpa 1951 ro TVHCKOM nonuroHve: aBuaGomGa MOWWHOCTE pBaHa Hag ero ONbITHbIM NONeM Ha BbICOTE sbie 8 CCCP 6bin npowssegeH BO3LYWHE! 3yNbTAT, NO CYWECTBY, ABUICA OCHOBON An Hui 06 OcHaweHun CoBeTCKux BBC agepH NO OpraHvs0BaHo ADeNHOe NPoMsBOLCTEO wx HOCKHTeNen — Camonetos Ty-4.
B rocyfapcTeeHHoW cucTeme opranu3 Hus AV Gonbwyto ponb coirpan 71-4 nom NOXeHHbIA B Kpbimy (B pawoHe noc. Ba 6bin Co3gaH B aBrycte 1947 roga. Ero 1949-1962 romax yuacTsoBan B 178 ager Ha CN — 8 94 AV, Ha CANHS - B 83 uve Toukom nonuroxe, B xOQe BOMCKOBOrO ys HUEM a@TOMHON GomOb! B pexume Gombomt BbICOTbI.
Ha 3TomM nonuroxe BBC nogsepranvcb Tal LUM MICnbITaHisiM VM CaMOneTbI — HOCMTeNM a moneTel-nabopatopuv: Ty-16, An-28 u Cy-7 Ty-35 u 3M (Ha CVNH3); otpabatbipanca Be XOQWA VicnbITaHMA KaK HOCMTeNb NpoTuBONC opyxne Ges npveneyeHna K HaTypHbIM AV,
Cnenyet OTMeTHTb, YTO pesyNbTaT! UC aencteua AB npusenu K BbIBOAY O BOSN TMBHOrO AeMcTaNA BoopyxeHHbix Cun Ha BURX NPUMEHEHMA NPOTMBHUKOM AAepHOr KOHTeKCTe ChemyeT PaCCMaTPVBaTb M BC npoBoAMBWwMeca Ha TOUKOM apTumnepui Opex6yprcKxou o6nactu 8 ceHTAGpe 195+ ToOpex Gbin NDOVsBeneH BOZAYWHbIN AB Ha BbICoTe 350 m. Takas BbICOTa NOApLIE o6ecneuuBana HeEsHaNUTenbHOe paguoak Hue TEDPVTOPUM B 3NKMUeHTPe B3pbIBa UH TMBHOrO O6naka. B xome 3Tux yYeHui np oKono 45 Thic, BOeEHHOCAYxKaUMX. STO Gel 8 CCCP macwra6xHble socKoBLIe yueHy typrore AB. Cronb ynukanbrivim yueHuen wan CosertcKoro Cowsa IK. KyKos.
OGcyacdenue pemenua emopor Discussion of a decision by partie
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bo
Ucneitanna ADEPHbIX 6oenpunacos wv NONMroHbl
AtomHyi0 Gomby cOpocun Ha OGo3aHa4eHHyiO Wen’ Ha TOU- KOM nonuvrove akunaxk NoANonKOBHuKa B.A. KyTbipyega, KO- TODBIA YKE MMEN ONLIT NATH NeTHbIX MCNLITAHVA ATOMHOK 6om6s! Ha CemunanaTMHcKom nonuroxe. Npon3zowno ato 14 ceHTAOps 1954 roga ea 94 34 mun.
B nogroroske MB xOfe yYeHUA NPVHAIM akTMBHON yuacTue pykosogctso Munuctepctsa cpeqnero mMawnHOcTpoeHua CCCP so rnase c B.A. Manblwesbim, a Take BeAyuMe yue- Hele — CO3faTenu sfepHoro opyxua U.B. Kypyatos, K.M. enki 4 pykosogcreo BCex POLOB BOCK uM Cun nota, KOMAHOBAHME BCEX Fpynl BOCK, BOCHHbIX OKPYFOB, OXPyrOB NPOTMBOROSAYWHOM OGOpoONsi, cbnoToe u cbnotunMi. Ha yyue- Hue G6biInM NpurnaweHb! BCe MMMUCTPbI OGOPONb! ADyxKeCcT- BEHHbIX B TO BPEMA HAM CTpak, BovicKoBoe yyeHue nog kO- gom «CHexok» B WraGHbIX JOKYMe@HTAaX HasbiBanocb: «Mpo- PbIB NMOAPOTOBNeHHON TakTM4eCKOM OGOPCHbI NpoTMBHUKAa C NPUMGHEHVEM ATOMHOrO Opyxua».
17 cexta6pa TACC cooGumno: «B cooTBetTcTBun c nnaHomM HayYHO-MCCNeAOBATENbCKMX MW SKCNEPMMEHTANbHbIX DASOT B nocneaHve AH B CoseTcKom Coie 6bIN0 NposeneHo UCNbI- TaHve OfZHOrO M3 BHgQ0B aTOMHOrO Opyxuea. Llenbio ncneiTa- Hus Geilo MayyeHve AeMCTBHI aTOMHOrO B3pbisa. Npu ucnbi- TAHMM NONYYEHbI WEHHbIE PeSyNbTATbI, KOTOPbIe NOMOryT CO- BETCKMM YYEHbIM M MHKEHEPAM YCNeWHO PeWMTb 3aga4v NO 3aunrTe OT ATOMHOrO HanagfeHxun».
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Tests of nuclear munitions and test sites
epicenter and in the radioactive cloud pattern. The exercise involved some 45,000 troops and this was the USSR’s only large-scale military exercise in conditions of a full-scale nuclear explosion. This unique exercise was commanded by Marshal of the Soviet Union G.K. Zhukov.
The A-bomb was dropped onto the specified target at the Toskoye range by the crew led by Lieutenant-Colonel V.Ya. Kutyrchev who had an earlier experience of five A-bomb flight tests at the Semipalatinsk test site. The event took place at 8.34 a.m. September 14, 1954.
The work to prepare and conduct the exercise involved the leaders of the Ministry of Medium-Machine Building headed by V.A. Malyshev, leading nuclear weapons scientists includ- ing I.V. Kurchatov and K.I. Shchelkin, leaders of all arms and naval forces, and commanders of all groups of troops, military districts, air defense districts, fleets and flotillas. The exercise was attended by all defense ministers of the USSR's friendly countries at the time. Codenamed «Snezhok», it was referred to in staff documents as the «Break through the enemy's pre- pared tactical defense using nuclear weapons»
A TASS report of September 17 read: «In keeping with the plan of research and experimental work, the Soviet Union has recently conducted a test of one of the nuclear weapon types. The purpose of the test was to study the effects of a nuclear explosion. Valuable results have been obtained during the test that will help Soviet scientists and engineers with successful solution of the task to provide defense against atomic attack».
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Ld UcnbiraHvs agepHbix 6oenpuinée
Non Ep
MexayHapomHeImM HaOniwgLeHt CTBYIOWMX MEXAYHAPODHbIX 6nara ot noGoro mupHoro nf 6binv goctynHb! rocymapcTBe Aorogsopa, He oOnagaouwmx HEQMCKDMMMHALMOHHON OCHC VCNONbaYEMBIX BaPbIBHbIX YC cTHuKos Jlorosopa Gpina Tak 3TO BO3MOXHO, V He BKMIO4aN QoBaHiO “ YCOBeEpWweHCTSOB
Csoe npakTMyeckoe BONNOLL HUSA NOASEMHbIX AB B HAaPOAHC Copetcxom Coiose nonyyunn, VHMUMaTHBe 4 WHpOKOl no~NE CTpa CpeAKero MalUMHOCTpoet
B koporkue cpoku 6binu po cneuvanbdble sfepHbie saps umenv raGaputel, nosBonsio! CKBaxKMHaX, BbIAepxuBanu GO nepartypb! 4M MMenM 3aqaHHble rosbigenexua. Sto onpener MOXHOCTH VM BbICOKYIO Scpdpe noasemebix AB ana peanugal DOAHO-XO3RMCTREHHHIX Npor KOTOPLIX OObI4HLIMU CpencTa TwBHO. Tak 8 60-e rofbi XX B BaTbCA OCHOBHbIE NONOXKEHMS Tpammobt N° 7 «AgepHeie B3p 3niicTBa». Pyxopogutenem n TuTenb E.M, Cnascxoro npo ko8, €@ HayYHbIM pykoBon 0.1. Keaposc«ui.
Pa6ota passopaineanace € 6binv NpoBeAEHbI 4eTHIPE BKC me MAB.
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442
ATOMHaA SHEpreTHKa
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ABM ana nepBoK MeXKOHTMHEHTAaNbHOn SGannucTuyeckonk paxertbi P-7
NM for the first intercontinental ballistic missile R-7
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PaspaGoTka agepHbix Goenpunacos BHUMA
142
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- NYCKOBylO CUCTeMy (COBOKYNHOCTb UCNONHMTENbHbIX YCT- poncTB), OTBETCTBEHHYy!O 3a 3anyCK CMCTEMbI UVHULIMMpOBa- HUA B HYKHbIN MOMEHT (HanpuMmep, Ha 3afaHHOW BbICOTEe B aT- mocdepe wiv Ha 3agaHHON myOuHe B BOAHON cCpene);
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Kpome Toro, B COCTaB HeKOTOpbIx ABM Bxoqut AaBTOHOMHbIN UCTOYHMK NUTaHna.
YkagaHHble yCTpOvcTBa pasmMewWaioTcA B CO6CTBEHHOM kopnyce ABI unu otceke HocuTena.
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1 = ucTo4HMK nuTaHnA
2 — cuctema nycKa
3 - cuctema npegoxpaHeHusa 4 - cuctema uHuuMMpoBaHua 5 -— agepHbilt 3apay,
6 — kopnyc
1 — power supply
2 - trigger system 3 - safety system
4 - initiation system 5 - nuclear charge 6 — shell
Development of Ni Munitions in’
There are three Russian organizations respon: opment of nuclear munitions in the country: ' and VNIIA.
The diagram presented below shows the ge! of nuclear munition to illustrate more graphicall in charge of.
The diagram demonstrates that any nuclear tains four basic devices:
- a nuclear charge that contains the expl: nuclear material and accounts for most of the | gy released in a nuclear explosion thanks to nu: within it;
- a system for electric and neutron initiation tem) of the nuclear charge. Its functions include high-voltage electric pulses to detonate the ct sive of the nuclear charge and generation of an the time the nuclear material is compressed. T responsible and most complicated system nuclear components of the nuclear munition;
- a trigger system (a combination of actuator for triggering the initiation system at the require the preset height in the atmosphere or at the ¢ water);
- a safety system with the function of rulir explosion in all emergencies, such as failures « nents, emergency impacts (fire, shock, strean unauthorized (erroneous or premeditated) acti ing personnel or the intruder.
Besides, some nuclear munitions include ai power supply source.
Each of the above devices has a body of its ¢ vidual compartment within the carrier.
In accordance with the described nuclear n ture, VNIIA develops nuclear munitions as a wh
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mH Pagpa6orka agepHbix 6oenpynacos Development of nuclear munitions Cuctems! sneKTpYYeCKoro M HEMTPOHHO eS LA
Dponroswe xpenarvie paxetes OKP-1 FKR-1 tactical cruise missiles
Mopcxve xpbinaTpe Sea-launched cruise paxeTo n-6, 1-5 (NN)
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164
ABOVE: Russian illustration of American's very inefficient first design of a 15kt oralloy (highly enriched U235) nuclear artillery shell, a total waste of money and materials, as the yield-predicting warhead designer of the first Russian tactical shell explains in his article (discussed in detail later in this blog post). This American design of firing hollow rings of uranium-235 was a very inefficient device. (It is not much better than the design of the gun-type assembly Hiroshima bomb which contained enough oralloy to yield 1 megaton, but was so inefficient it yielded just 16 kt!) More efficient warhead designer Dr Theodore Taylor slammed gun-type assembly
weapons as groupthink "committee" designs, based on minimising risks of a misfire, not maximising efficient use of fissile material!)
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ABOVE: Russian illustration of a re-design of the America gun-assembly uranium-235 bomb to try to improve efficiency (not by much!).
Here, each of the U235 pieces is fired at the other, to reduce assembly time and thus to allow a larger supercritical mass to be assembled before preinitiation risks (fizzle risk) becomes appreciable! American designs are obsessed with minimising risks. Russians are obsessed
with maximising performance, efficiency and reducing costs to a minimum (the same approach used with their tanks etc in WWI).
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W-48
ABOVE: Russian illustration of the first cheap, efficient American linear-implosion plutonium artillery shell, the W48, first put into service in 1963, SEVEN YEARS after the first plutonium linear-implosion Russian tactical nuclear shell was successfully tested with 14 kt yield on 16 March 1956! This American W48 old nuclear shell remained in service from 1963 until 1992, when disarmers withdrew it,
allegedly as appeasement, to somehow prevent WWIII via Russia invading Ukraine (or whatever lies are fashionable!).
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Hay4Hbid pykoBoguTenb “ MaBHbiA KOHCTpyKTOp
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ABOVE: Russian nuclear warhead designers of the 170 and 210 kt MIRV thermonuclear warheads and the 2.5kt smallest ever diameter nuclear artillery shell (linear implosion), all at the Snezhinsk (formerly Chelyabinsk-70) nuclear warhead design laboratory. They are not as well paid as their American counterparts, but are respected and awarded medals and visits and praise by President Putin (compare faces
above to the photo below).
President Putin meeting Russian nuclear warhead designers in 2000, and writing his praise of Snezhinsk nuclear lab's warheads! President Biden, by contrast, campaigned against the nuclear deterrence of invasions, even criticising Donald Trump's modest efforts to convert a relatively few old, low yield W76 Trident warheads into ad hoc tactical warheads four years ago, AFTER Putin had seized Crimea! Duhhh! The Cold War propaganda for Western nuclear disarmament is still going strong today despite all the lives lost in all the wars and invasions that could have been prevented by credible nuclear deterrence since 1992! Tactical nuclear weapons are not regulated by "arms control" liars, so Russia has thousands (precise number UNKNOWN!), and America has zero specifically designed tactical weapons (as we'll see later, the neutron output of low-yield dial-a-yield options on strategic warheads like the B61 are pathetic compared to purpose designed tactical nuclear warheads, so aren't a credible deterrent, a fact covered-up by disarmers). Translation from the 2005 Snezhinsk nuclear weapons film: "In 2000 the President of the Russian Federation visited the All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Technical Physics. He examined the exposition of the museum of nuclear weapons and left the following entry in the book of honored visitors: The biggest danger facing Russia and the whole world is the violation of the balance of power at the cost of huge efforts and sacrifices to the Soviet. The Union managed to achieve a balance of great merit in this, due to your team together. We are obliged not only to maintain the existing achievements but also to achieve new frontiers relying on the talent and courage of our scientists. With hope and love, Vladimir Vladimirovich, March 31, 2000"
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
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ABOVE: protected underground Russian launch controller centre for SS18 (Satan) ICBM's. Despite the "dead hand" automatic override system (which supposedly automatically launches missiles after a sustained loss of communications from Russian leaders), basic firing is done using relatively simple, low-tech equipment that is hardened against nuclear effects, e.g. resistant to EMP and shielded to give
radiation protection against fallout collateral damage. Even if America could knockout such missiles, there is no guarantee that Russia
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would not - in times of intense crisis such as a US-Russian conventional war - change its basic doctrine to launch them on warning,
before American missiles have arrived! Then American warheads would be uselessly blowing up EMPTY SS18 silos! Duh!!
BOVE: declassified blueprint of Russian nuclear eapon detonator design. Everything they designed as more suitable for cheaper mass production than
Aled estern technology, maximising efficiency rather than
minimising misfire risks which is the Western idea!
LAlaLe SEAQNANS
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Snezhinsk Snezhinsk
Closed City, Nuclear Weapon Development Center
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ABOVE: "The creation of [Russian] tactical nuclear weapons, including for artillery systems, began immediately after the
appearance of the first atomic bombs. In the Soviet Union, such a task was set for specialists at the beginning of 1952, and already in 1956, a successful [14 kt] test of the RDS-41 charge for a 406 mm caliber projectile took place. ... In the early 1970s, nuclear warheads were created in Snezhinsk [aka the Cold War lab Chelyabinsk-70, i.e. Russia's equivalent to America's Lawrence Livermore nuclear weapons designers lab; a huge number of photos of their currently stockpiled nuclear warheads have been declassified with museum plaque summaries of details of the delivery systems they are each intended for, their nuclear physics package internal layout which differs from ALL Western nuclear weapons, the names of their key designers, and so on; and we have included a summary of this vital data in this blog post for easy reference, since they are the overriding nuclear war threat under the current
political situation seems to be Russia, since America disarmed itself of tactical nuclear warheads in the 1990s apparently to convince
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Russia it could not credibly oppose a Russian invasion in the mistaken belief that this would end the risk of a nuclear war] for ammunition of 240 mm and 203 mm calibers for the B-4M towed howitzer; heavy towed mortar M-240, self-propelled mortar 284 "Tulip" and self-propelled artillery gun 2S7 "Pion". ... 203-mm self-propelled guns 2S7 "Peony", which were put into operation in 1975. For them, low-power tactical ammunition "Kleshchevitsa", "Sazhenets" and "Perforator" were specially created ... The development of nuclear projectiles of 152.4 mm caliber is considered one of the brightest pages in the history of the creation of Soviet nuclear weapons. The creators of nuclear charges and nuclear ammunition based on them for artillery and mortar systems were awarded the USSR State Prizes (1973, 1974, 1984) and the Lenin Prize (1984)." - Igor Zot, The Russian army has means of delivering low-yield tactical nuclear weapons to strike at enemy troops at a distance of up to 45 kilometers, https://en.newizv.ru/news/army/03-03-2022/an-atomic-charge-from-a-cannon-what-kind-of-artillery-nuclear-charges-does-russia-
have
Combustion, Explosion, and Shock Waves, Vol. 36, No. 6, 2000
Development of the First Nuclear Charge RDS-41 (11D) for Artillery Projectile
V. P. Zhogin*
Translated from Fizika Goreniya i Vzryva, Vol. 36, No. 6, pp. 14-20, November—December, 20!
EDITORIAL While preparing the jubilee issue the editorial board found it reasonabl In the early 1950s, all publications concerning paper. Colleagues from the IEP di
M. A. Lavrent’ev showed some reticence. Sometimes, (mainly decoding some technical abk one could read a phrase typical of that time: “... obtained permission for its publicati took part in the creation of the nuclear shield of the paper appears on our pages.
Motherland ... .” Mikhail Alekseevich was even more The author of the article (in
Dr Shirkov, the quantum field theorist who was the yield prediction designer of the RDS-41 tactical 14 kt two-point 406-mm diameter Russian nuclear artillery shell at Sarov, which was tested successfully on 16 March 1956 yielding the maximum possible predicted design yield of 14 kt kilotons, winning him the 1958 Lenin Prize, has a published unclassified article (PDF version of full article linked here) about it online (webpage with summary of article including PDF link to full article is linked here). It was melon shaped, had a U238 reflector, and a thin Pu239 hollow core containing Po210-Be neutron initiator. At Irtysh River in Semipalatinsk, while they were waiting for the wind to stop blowing towards the town, to allow the RDS-41 to be safely surface burst (an air burst would not have created this fallout risk), Shirkov's friend Lev V. Ovsiannikov became interested in the QFT renormalization group functional equations Shirkov was interested in, and solved them, publishing the solution in Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences just three weeks after their nuclear test: https://scfh.ru/en/papers/the-tsar-projectile-for-nuclear-
artillery/.
Fellow Russian nuclear weaponeer Vasilii P. Zhogin wrote in his paper, "Development of the First Nuclear Charge RDS—41 (11D) for Artillery Projectile", Combustion, Explosion, and Shock Waves, vol 36, November 2000, Issue 6, pages 689-694 (translated from the Russian version in Fizika Goreniya i Vzryva, Vol. 36, No. 6, pp. 14-20, November—December, 2000): "The result of this trial was so important that the team of implementors with Academician M. A. Lavrent’ev as its leader became Lenin Prize winners in 1958. This Prize was introduced anew and was the second after Kurchatov, Zel’dovich, Sakharov, and Khariton. ... In the U.S., the range nuclear test of the first nuclear charge MK-9 of diameter 280 mm (11 inches) was conducted on May 25, 1953 [the 15 kt Grable shot of Upshot-Knothole
in Nevada, which produced no significant fallout despite the fact that its 557.6 ft maximum fireball radius at second maximum
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. thermal output exceeded the height of detonation of just 524 feet, a fact explained by RAND Corp's Dr Kellogg in the 1957
congressional hearings on fallout; the neutron induced Na-24 maximum dose rate near ground zero was only about 10 R/hr at 1 hour and decreased to merely 10 milli-Roentgens per hour at about 1 mile from ground zero! ]. ... The [RDS-41] focusing system was developed by V. P. Zhogin. ... Electric detonators were elaborated by M. I. Puzyrev’s team. The neutron source was designed by A. I. Abramov ... a thermostable explosive composition was chosen for use in the charge. After a series of examinations, it was tested on the range of the Central SRI-58 by gun-firing of 2000 37-mm rounds to check their resistance to explosion. ... A test of the RDS-41 charge was planned for March, 1956. The charge enclosed in a projectile was to be placed on the floor of a wooden hut. ... finally the trial was set for the 16th of March ... The equipping operation was delayed for an hour (quite unexpectedly, the aluminum lids of the steel projectile body were jammed, and the projectile body required cooling with snow). ... Some hours later the device was detonated. The results of the test were beyond expectations. The charge exhibited the highest possible power." (Note that the seismic and fallout data at long range led the CIA in its Top Secret NIE report dated 16 May 1962 to wrongly assess this 16 March 1956 Russian nuclear test, "Joe 21" to be 30 kt yield, when in fact the accurate close-in yield determination by Russia was 14 kt. At least the CIA correctly deduced it was
a surface burst!)
C &@ =infosmi.net/politic/280327-takticheskoe-yadernoe-oruzhie-rf-zastavit-ssha-i-nato-kapitulirovat/
Tactical nuclear weapons of the Russ will force the US and NATO to capitul
Novosibirsk, weather forecast for August 18, up to 16 °C Yakutsk, weather forecast fo
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ABOVE: Russian news aka propaganda site infosmi has published photos of Russian nuclear weapons in crates ready for use in
the Ukraine, e.g. see "Tactical nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation will force the US and NATO to capitulate", https://infosmi.net/politic/280327-takticheskoe-yadernoe-oruzhie-rf-zastavit-ssha-i-nato-kapitulirovat/ "As Voennoye delo reports , the risk of using nuclear weapons is only increasing, with Western experts James Ragland and Adam Lowther saying that the main danger lies in Russian tactical nuclear weapons. At the moment, according to experts, the number of such ammunition that Russia possesses ranges from three to six thousand units, while the North Atlantic Alliance does not have weapons of this type at all. In the current situation, according to analysts, the Russian side can use tactical nuclear weapons in such a way that the effect of destruction, as well as radioactive impact, is minimal, while the psychological aspect of such actions will reach a maximum. As a result, the US and NATO will be forced to capitulate to the threat of a full-scale nuclear conflict." (There is one BIG problem with this particular example of Russian "propaganda": it happens to be a credible threat, unlike Western books on nuclear weapons/war effects. Even bad propaganda can sometimes be useful kicking the self-deluded into sense, if they can be persuaded to face the truth, rather than the fairy tales from the even worse propaganda of disarmament activists and bigots on knockou blow and countervalue nuclear war. But the correct solution is not the capitulation to Russia suggested in this article, but instead for NATO to begin once more to credibly deter Russia from its conventional warfare which risking escalating to tactical nuclear war, when it runs out of conventional arms, due to the supply of Western arms to Ukraine to enable it to blow up Russian conventional weapons stockpiles. NATO had tactical nuclear weapons for this very same purpose in the Cold War, including the W54 and later
the W79, these designs still exist and these can be produced again in an emergency to serve the same useful purposes, of deterring
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both nuclear escalation in an invasion, and WWIII. The fact is that the Western tactical nuclear warhead disarmers SIMPLY GOT IT WRONG.)
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ABOVE: the world's smallest diameter nuclear weapon is the Russian Snezhinsk lab's 2.5-kiloton 53 kg ZBV3, a 17.4km range, 152.4 mm diameter, 774 mm long artillery shell, shown here with its museum plaque (it is also shown below with the world's biggest ever nuclear weapon - also, you guessed it, a Russian product, in the Snezhinsk nuclear weapons lab instructional museum of warhead design). (For comparison, the smallest Western nuclear weapon, Theodore Taylor's 0.02 kt W54 or Davy Crockett, is 305 mm in diameter, 457 mm long and 26.5 kg. So the Russian ZBV3 is only half the diameter of the W54, but it is twice the mass and of course longer than the W54. There is also a great difference in yield, 0.02 kt for the W54 compared to 2.5 kt for the ZBV3.) The ZBV3 research supervisor was Academician E. I. Zababakhin, the chief designer of nuclear weapons was Academician B. V. Litvinov, and the chief designers of the development of nuclear weapons were L. F. Klopov, O. N. Tikhane and V. A. Vernikovsky. This design began in 1971 and was completed in 1981. Manufacture by mass-production began at the Trekhgorny City Instrument Making Plant in 1981 and was completed in 1991. The special casing it is held in is designed to protect it during storage and transit to the battlefield. It was built to be fired from the widest possible range of Russian artillery: D-20 howitzer guns, ML-20 howitzer guns, 2C3 Akatsia self-propelled howitzers, 2A36 Giatsint-B guns (towed), 2C5 Giatsint-C self-propelled guns.
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The descriptive plaque on the bomb in the photo above states (in Russian): "NUCLEAR PROJECTILE. 152 mm CALIBRE. FOR SELF- PROPELLED ARTILLERY INSTALLATION. RFNC - VNIITF [note that VNIIFT = the Snezhinsk nuclear weapons lab design, now part of Pocatom; they have some information on their website about their achievements in developing the best Russian nuclear warheads, stating that they developed the smallest ever nuclear weapon, namely the 152mm one photographed above, the cleanest ever nuclear weapon "in which 99.85% of the energy is obtained through the synthesis of nuclei of light elements", the lighest ever nuclear weapon, and the "the most economical in terms of the consumption of fissile materials", and nuclear warheads capable of withstanding 120C temperature, 750 atmospheres overpressure, and 12,000g's of acceleration on re-entry; maybe we should start buying their nuclear warheads if all this is true]." Snezhinsk nuclear weapons lab also has an interesting webpage about their peaceful nuclear weapons tests here: http://vniitf.ru/article/mirnie-vzrivi "Of the 124 peaceful explosions carried out in the USSR, 80 nuclear charges developed at VNIITF were used in 75 cases. ... VNIITF began to carry out peaceful explosions of its charges from May 1968. ... All developments of NEDs for peaceful purposes were headed, carried out, supported and supervised at VNIITF by Academicians E.I. Zababakhin, E.N. Avrorin and B.V. Litvinov. ... If for peaceful camouflage explosions there were no special requirements for the “purity” of charges, then for ejection explosions (formation of dams, trenches) nuclear explosive devices with a minimum amount of radioactive fission fragments were needed. In these cases, thermonuclear devices are more suitable, in which the main energy release is due to fusion reactions. Such charges were also included in a series of peaceful NEDs developed at VNIITF, and were used to create a trench in the Pechora-Kolvinsky Canal section (Perm Region) - an integral part of the project developed in the 1970s to transfer the waters of the northern rivers to the Volga. The experiment to create this trench was called "Taiga". It was preceded by model explosions of low-power (0.2 kt) nuclear charges in wells at the Semipalatinsk test site (1968) "Telkem-1" and "Telkem-2", where the formation of an ejection funnel (a single explosion, T-1) and a short trench (a group explosion of three charges, T-2) was checked. The analysis of the results of these explosions was used in the design of the main experiment "Taiga". A year after this experiment, an improved “clean” charge was tested at the Semipalatinsk test site with a 5- fold reduced fragmentation activity compared to that used in the Taiga operation. ... In conclusion, we note that VNIITF is, in fact,
the only organization in the world that develops specialized nuclear explosive devices for industrial applications."]
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Russian Nuclear Weapons Museum biggest and smallest devices compared
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i i
SAROV NUCLEAR WEAPONS MUSEUM RUSSIA
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Snezhinsk/Snowtown Nuclear Weapon Muse
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
4 4 i owe =e pote Ru — 7 7
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oe Ra '
WESTERN DESIGNS
RUSSIAN DESIGNS
MAJOR NUCLEAR DESIGN VARIATIONS BETWEEN SLBM WARHEADS W76 AND W88 (FROM LA-4000) SECONDé/ NEUTRON GENERATOR
PRIMARY STAGE
(\
HEAVY U235 (ORALLOY) LOADING OF W88 REQUIRES BERYLLIUM INTERSTAGE:
camary SECOND/
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DECLASSIFIED SKETCHES OF KEY DESIGN DIFFERENCES ONLY
4BOVE: In 2015, S. Douglas oodward's book Js Russia Destined vo Nuke the US pointed out that ussia's only real military superiority is in tactical nuclear weapons, the most effective deterrent possible to allow it to invade Ukraine and Europe, since the West has now no way to counter it: "Europe protests the incursion but seems unwilling (and unable) to use military force to push Russia back from its designs on Ukraine and Crimea. ... Then there is the state of the Russian people. They suffer under economic sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States. Backed into a corner, is it suprising Russia rattles its sabre? However, Russia's only sabre - its one area of military superiority, is Russian tactical nuclear weapons [2,000] outnumbering NATOS tactical nukes 10 to 1 in the region. As Russia weakens in critical areas, several factors are converging which suggest Russia must act now ... The February 2014 agreement between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany (the so-called Minsk Agrement) has failed ... ‘During the era of political romanticism, the Soviet Union pledged never to use nuclar weapons first,’ Kiselyov told the audience of Vesti Nedeli, his current affairs
show ... 'But Russia's current military doctrine does not - no more illusions'."
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Carter Directive Modifies Strategy for a Nuclear War
By Michael Getler Washington Post Staff Writer
President Carter has signed a new directive that modifies the strategy the United States would use in fight- ing anuclear war-with the Soviet Un- ion, according to high-ranking admin- istration officials.
The new strategy involves placing less emphasis on all-out retaliation against Soviet cities in the event of a Ruégsian attack. Instead, there would be greater emphasis on destroying So- viet military forces and both political and military command centers early in a conflict 1n hopes of convincing Moscow that it could not ultimately “win” a war.
Presidential directives on.such ,mat- ters are milestones in the 35-year his- tory of the atomic age.
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
1979:
For much of the past two decades, the United States has relied on having enough nuclear might to smash all major Soviet cities and industries, even after absorbing a first strike by Moscow, so that the. Soviets would be deterred from such an ‘attack in the first place.
This was called by: the appropriate name of MAD, for mutual assured de- struction. It -:still is a major part of U.S’strategy.
But.as the Soviet missile force grew larger than the U.S force and as its accuracy improved, the Soviets not only could threaten U.S cities but U.S land-based missiles as well.
Furthermore, an appreciaton grew among some specialists in this coun- try that. Soviet military doctrine did not necessarily accépt the idea that a nuclear. war could have no winners.
Extract from Washington Post, 6 August 1980 (35th anniver
ABOVE: Russian plans for the tactical use of nuclear weapons (English translation left; original Russian on right), from our 20
September 2017 blog post here, taken from restricted Russian manual Nuclear Weapons - A Manual for Officers, which we
obtained from Ukraine and put on internet archive to show the threat. On pages 9-10 of his 1977 book Surviving Doomsday, Bruce
Sibley (who in the 1980s edited the UK CD magazine protect and Survive Monthly) pointed out: "During the 1960s, the original lead
which America held in numbers of strategic missiles began to show signs of erosion ... Not only were the Russians developing new
missiles and warhead techniques, but their whole armament programme began to expand at an alarming rate. At first, Soviet proclamations
asserted that this was merely a 'catching up' with America and NATO, but since this expansion has continued aggressively ... it may not be
an exaggeration to hold the view that the Soviet Union has now overtaken NATO and American military might ... The matter of civil
defence playing a major role in strategic warfare planning ... the 'ace in the hole’ ... No country on earth has a civil defence programme as
extensive as the Eastern Bloc. ... Unfortunately, the majority of Western politicians and some of their advisors seem quite oblivious to the
strategic significance of Russia's preoccupation with a major civil defence programme. They either scorn or remain in ignorance of the
facts. Some critics even charge that by its very existence, civil defence makes the prospect of nuclear war more thinkable, and therefore
should not be developed. This is an essential part of their package for banning the bomb."
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Figure 169. Possible targets of nuclear strikes in the Offensive Puc. 169. Bos:
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Fig. 170. Possible targets of nuclear strikes in defense Pue. 170. Bc
ABOVE: Page 42 of Putin's latest 2014 Russian civil defense manual supporting the tactical use of nuclear weapons (English translation and original Russian test), from our 20 September 2017 blog post here, full manual was put on internet archive to show the threat. Again, civil defense when combined with offensive plans for nuclear weapons is an offensive problem; the opposite is true for purely defensive civil defense (which increases the nuclear threshold by enabling survival of accidental and limited nuclear strikes). On pages 5-6 of his 1977 book Surviving Doomsday, Bruce Sibley pointed out: "Meanwhile, the Soviet Union possesses the largest and most comprehensive war-survival programme in the world today. The Soviet leadership never tires of reiterating that victory is impossible unless every Soviet citizen has undergone intensive practical and moral-psychological civil defence training. ... The Soviet evacuation scheme intends to scatter 241 million citizens throughout the Russian countryside ... urban evacuation is the key to twarting the ‘estimated’ killing power of nuclear missiles ... the Soviets have maintained vast stockpiles of grain, tinned food, fuel, water, medical supplies,
clothing, spare parts and raw materials throughout the USSR ... The entire Moscow underground railway system has been equipped to
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TRANSLATION FROM PUTIN'S 2014 CD BOOK :
give protection and life-support to over one million persons. Every Soviet citizen has been issued with a gas mask, that will filter out
radioactive dust and chemical and biological aerosol agents ... the Russians may be committed to the downfall of Western ideology - by peaceful subversion or by open conflict." (A// of the arguments against this kind of civil defense are specious: Britain evacuated 1.5 million of vulnerable people from London 48 hours before declaring war in 1939, and the Luftwaffe didn't bomb the evacuees or "simply" retarget the dispersed population. Another fallacy is that dispersing millions of people into the countryside will make sanitation and food problems worse. The reality is that sanitation and food supply logistics break down in bombed cities far sooner than in the countryside,
where people are nearer food sources! The effect of fast-decaying fallout on crops is trivial.)
ABOVE: major designs of Russian warheads using two primary stages wired in parallel circuit (for explosive detonators on the implosive systems of each primary charge, and also parallel circuit for the later pulse of current to the neutron sources for each primary charge), to
produce x-ray ablative linear implosion of a central thermonuclear charge:
"Yuri Nikolaevich Babaev became one of the main creators of the world's largest detonated bomb ... In the future, the efforts of Yuri Nikolaevich Babaev focused on the fundamental improvement of thermonuclear charges, for which he developed the theory of
"double approach". - http://www.biblioatom.ru/founders/babaev_yuriy_nikolaevich/"
These are an alternative to using plastic foam to diffuse x-rays in all directions to allow a single primary stage to compress a spherical secondary stage isotropically, without x-ray shadowing problems. Plastic foam reduces speed and efficiency of x-ray delivery (the recoil
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RUSSIAN STANDARD DESIGNS Rounded, but
non-tapering Cylindrical end to cylinder: centred: two spherical two linear primaries implosion primaries 650kg non-
MIRV (mono- block) SLBM
170-210 kg MIRV warheads warheads F=Li6D
'=Primary
F=Li6D
ablation force on the secondary, F' = dp/dt, is reduced when plastic foam is used to diffuse x-rays, because the longer diffused pulse of x- rays which is delivered via plastic foam has an increased pulse duration, ¢). For many purposes, therefore, two primary stages for linear implosion of a fusion charge, without needing any plastic foam, is just as an efficient approach as that used in single-primary Western devices.
ABOVE: error by DTRA regarding energy absorption by buildings. U.S. Government's DTRA DISPATCH magazine article "Building Effects on Airblast from Nuclear Detonations in Urban Terrain" falsely conflates the abrupt shock front with the length of the entire blast wave, claiming that since buildings are 2000 denser than blast waves: "the air will move 2000 times father than the structure in the same time interval. Thus while the building is moving lcm. the shock has moved more than 20m, and the energy is a small fraction of 1% the blast energy." The key error here is the statement that "the shock has moved 20 m". They meant the shock front, which isn't the same thing as the entire blast wave, the thickness of which is dependent on bomb yield, and is what moves drag-sensitive buildings with large window openings where the overpressure quickly equalises. So they are totally wrong. They are absurdly arguing that only 1/2000 of the dynamic pressure (kinetic energy per unit volume of air) of air presents a force upon buildings, or presumably upon ships sails (which are denser than air), or eardrums (again which are denser than air). The shoddy, imprecise form of their statement makes it hard to understand precisely what they are saying, but it seems to be that they are assuming falsely that the blast wave consists only of a shock front, which will move 20 m past the building (without moving it significantly) before the building has moved | cm, but the density of the building and the location of the shock front relative to the building is JRRELEVANT while the mass of air BEHIND the shock front is delivering energy to the building, as proved by the absence from the relevant equations of both building density and shock front location after it has passed, but winds are still blowing. It's not the shock front that causes the building to oscillate, but the wind pressure behind the shock front. The building density, and the distance the shock FRONT moves beyond the building, have no relevance to thickness the layer of air BEHIND the shock front, which is what is pushing the building, and this thickness increases with bomb yield! (However, most of the push to the building occurs due to the highest dynamic pressure, i.e. the air just behind the discontinuity or "shock front".) As a result, the actual energy absorption by a building is more than 100 times greater than DTRA's ratio of densities claims. Small-scale models of buildings, whether absolutely rigid or made from glass mirrors don't in any way, shape or form
model the energy captured in oscillations by thousands of tons of reinforced concrete of real buildings.
The wind (dynamic) pressure induced motion effects which have nothing to do with the relative density of the shock front compared to the building. The amount of energy picked up from either the wind pressure of normal breezes or the blast wave of a nuclear explosion, by a building in oscillatory energy is the time-integrated form of Newtonian equation E = F:x, where force F = PA, where P is dynamic pressure and A is area, and x is the amount of displacement induced. There's no density of the building in these equations, and no dependence on the shock front, but rather the integrated dynamic pressure over the entire duration of the blast at the location of interest (if the building delays the passage of the shock front instead of letting it pass freely through windows etc, then there's an additional term for the time-integrated overpressure contribution). As dynamic pressure is removed by the building - not by the shock front but by the air behind it, lasting seconds in higher yield detonations - the overpressure also falls as the blast restores itself to the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions (overpressure energy is transformed into dynamic pressure energy, thus weakening overpressure as well as dynamic pressure). If DTRA were correct that only the front part (shock front) of a blast wave is relevant to delivery of energy and delivers only 1/2000 of the
energy of the blast, then by analogy our eardrums and ship sails would be similarly so inefficient at picking up energy from the dynamic
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Defense Threat Reduction Information Analysis Center
U.S. Governmen DISPATCH magz
SHAMRC Non-Responding Building Calculation Effects on Airblz Peak Overpressure versus Radius az = . Detonations in U At Rites Red BF falsely conflates = Unobstructed Radial + Obstructed Radials front with the le
blast wave, claii buildings are 20 blast waves: "th 2000 times fathe structure in the : interval. Thus w is moving 1cm. 1
Overpressure (bar)
Figure 1. Urban pressure distribution along different radials (ARA, Inc.) moved more tha
While the overpressure is drastically changed by the presence of buildings, the dynamic pressure is modified even energy is a smal greater in comparison to the ideal. The dynamic pressure is stagnated at each encounter with a building and is en-
hanced along streets and alleys. There are regions of nearly complete stagnation (no dynamic pressure) in regions the blast energy that would have very high dynamic pressures over an ideal surface. The high dynamic pressures and dynamic impuls- es aligned with streets will move any loose objects such as cars, trucks, mailboxes, or sidewalk stands hundreds of feet. Cars will be piled on top of one another and block roads and access to buildings closer to the detonation point. Th ev meant th e Many recent calculations have been criticized because they assume the buildings are nonresponding and perfectly rig- y
id. The argument for this assumption is that the materials from which the structures are made have a density that is which isn't the s at least 2,000 times the density of air. This means that when a shock wave strikes a structure, the air will move 2,000 =
times farther than the structure in the same time interval. Thus while the building is moving 1 cm, the shock has entire blast wav moved more than 20 m, and the energy lost from the shock is a small fraction of 1% of the blast energy. moves buil dings. As an example of this behavior, an experiment was conducted at the Ernst Mach Institute in Freiburg, Germany, in
which a model house was constructed of steel and exposed to a blast wave in a shock tube. Several shadowgraph total ly wrong. pictures were taken as the shock wave engulfed the structure. Reflections from the walls and roof could be readily
identified. A second model house was constructed from balsa wood using the same dimensions as the steel house and
exposed to the same blast pressure. Building density
When the shadowgraph pictures were compared, no distinction could be made between the steel and balsa wood : shock reflections. The balsa wood model did not measurably move over the entire time of the shock interaction with the shock FRON
episaees has no relevance Another series of experiments", in the United Kingdom, were conducted with a model city built from solid concrete
buildings. Pressure gauges monitored the loading at many points on buildings throughout the city. A high-explosive i] ayer of air BEHI
charge was detonated at a height of burst such that the Mach stem would be higher than the buildings as it passed : 2
over the model city. The experiments were criticized for using nonresponding structures. Therefore, the city was front, which is w
carefully reconstructed of thin mirror glass on light metal frames with the gauges installed at the same locations as the the buildin g, an d 3
concrete city, and the experiments were repeated. increases with b
8 spiSPATCH?
pressure of sound and the wind, respectively, that they couldn't work! Notice that their computer codes in 2013 falsely EXCLUDED any absorption of energy by the blast in oscillating thousands of tons of reinforced concrete, causing damage (much larger, huge amounts of energy are required to actually destroy reinforced concrete by permanent deformation; the springy oscillations of a building in a gale or blast wave take up far less energy than actual destruction requires), contrary to what John von Neumann pointed out (that buildings are NOT rigid but absorb energy from the blast, decreasing the blast parameters like pressures and impulses as the blast propagates through a city, unlike desert or ocean in unobstructed terrain nuclar tests!) in the 1950 Effects of Atomic Weapons (removed by Glasstone from future
editions, just as he removed the civil defence chapter from the 1977 edition!).
ABOVE: Appendix A of Glasstone's 1950 Effects of Atomic Weapons gives a specific calculated example that allows the absorption of blast energy by oscillating modern concrete buildings to be calculated: a reinforced concrete building of 952 metric tons, 75x75ft, 38 ft high (thus horizontal area of 265 square metres), resisting force 4 psi, is subjected to a peak overpressure and dynamic pressure loading of 32 psi (242,000 Pascals) decaying to zero in 0.32 second. Calculated peak deflection of middle of the building was 0.88 foot or 0.27 m (the top would be deflected twice this amount). Reinforced concrete is relatively ductile, but any cracking absorbs even more energy than the simple calculation of the kinetic energy of blast-induced oscillation. So the blast wave energy absorbed from the simple physics law E = Fx = PAx where P is pressure loading, A is exposed area of building being loaded, and x is the displacement(or more precisely from the
integral form of this, where energy absorbed is force integrated over displacement, as shown above) is about E = Fx = (242,000)(265)
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The Effects of
Atomic Weapons
PREPARED FOR AND IN COOPERATION WITH THE U. S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AND THE U. S. ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION
SHOCK FRONT
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED SHOCK FRONT
igure 5.3. Behavior of blast wave upon striking cubical structure: (a) before striking the structure; (b) soon after striking the structure; (c) soon after pass- ing the structure; (d) wave completely past the structure.
APPENDIX A}
AN APPROXIMATE METHOD OF COMPUTING THE DEFORMATION OF A STRUCTURE BY A BLAST WAVE
Ap(t) —>
Mor +F=Ap) t
—=% {; [Ap (t) — Fy Jdt.
Figure A.2. Mass supported on plastic spring equivalent to single-story structure.
Glasstone's 1950 Effects of Atomic
Weapons explained the basis of blast attenuation clearly.
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
G
3.20 In the preced the air blast from an at In this section consider of burst of the bomb « extremely complex anc manner. This is so fo a military target can n plete analytical solutio the behavior of a shoc has never been obtaine tion of the basic probl derived by a combina’ is, however, not readi better than an average the detailed descriptio odd shape, but they hs being rigid. This mets wave, but they also ab
3.21 The removal creases the shock pres detonation to a value the absence of dissipa
11 This section is based on work Laboratory.
58
of such dissipation or d what higher values of t a desired effect if thei rigid plane.
t Figur Appendix A then gives a specifical calculated example: a reinforced col 75x75ft, 38 ft high, resisting force 4psi, subjected to a peak overpressu 32psi decaying to zero in 0.32 second. Calculated peak deflection of mi
(0.27) = 17,000,000 Joules. This energy is removed from the blast wave by being transferred from the blast into the kinetic energy of
oscillating the building! Hard fact!
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The resisting force of 4 psi used in the 1950 Glasstone EM-1: ratio of energy to flatten vs. oscillate Fo¢a; blast wave
modern city buildings energy absorbed by a Loading city building, divided yesistances for various modern city buildings using into the blast energy
that can be absorbed Table 15.6 on page 525 of the 1996 Northrop
Elastic es naaren ; ; . 2 y oscillate (in : : : Inelastic aka plastic eee Handbook of Nuclear Weapon Effects: Calculational
zone (VERY BIG). building = blue plus Tools Abstracted from EM-1: 3.0 psi and 0.3 second = - red areas, divided into Energy = this area. blue ares natural period of oscillation for 3-8 story reinforced
book can be updated with the following static yield
= [0.5 + (u-1)]/ 0.5 concrete buildings (type 15.2.2), 1.25 psi and 0.3
7 u Ductility ratio (extension) =442(u-1) second for brick houses (type 15.2.3), 0.5 psi and 0.25
second for wooden houses (type 15.2.5), or 2.0 psi and
0.6 second for 3-10 story steel-frame office buildings (type 15.2.10). The "nominal" ductility ratios (the ratios of displacement required for collapse/severe damage to the maximum elastic response before plastic response begins) for these four types of buildings are given by Northrop as 7.5, 4, 7.5 and 10, respectively. The maximum amount of energy absorbed in destroying the buildings is simply the area under the curve of loading versus displacement before collapse. Since this relative area is 0.5 unit for the triangle shaped slope up to a ductility ratio of 1, and is roughly a constant height rectangle for the plastic zone from a ductility ratio of 1 up to the failure limit (severe damage/collapse of building), the ratio of total energy absorbed by a building in its destruction, to the maximum energy that can be absorbed in purely elastic oscillations by a buildings (up to ductility ratio of 1 unit) is simply [0.5 + (7.5 - 1)]/0.5, [0.5 + (4 - 1)]/0.5, [0.5 + (7.5 - 1)]/0.5, and [0.5 + (10 - 1)]/0.5, or 14, 7, 14, and 19, respectively, for those four building types. It is to be noticed that the greatest amounts of plastic range energy absorption are for the most predominant two kinds of modern city centre buildings, namely reinforced concrete and steel frame multistory buildings. These buildings, with up to 8 and 10 stories,
respectively, in these calculations, also have a cumulative effect in shielding free-field thermal and nuclear radiations.
The Effects of Atomic Weapons, 1950, on page 57 has a section written by John von Neumann and Fredrick Reines of Los Alamos (it is attributed to them in a footnote) stating clearly: "the structures ... have the additional complicating property of not being rigid. This means that they do not merely deflect the shock wave, but they also absorb energy from it at each reflection. The removal of energy from the blast in this manner decreases the shock pressure at any given distance from the point of detonation to a value somewhat below that which it would have been in the absence of dissipative objects, such as buildings." Glasstone removed this from future (1957-77) editions, not because it is wrong (it isn't), but apparently because it debunks official nuclear lies used for strategic deterrence in the same way that gas
and incendiary bombing effects was exaggerated in the 1930s to try to deter war!
. ABOVE: The two total dynamic
blast R pressure R overpressure energy l 2
E=4n are r’ dr+4z
terms for blast
wave energy. It's
really very PY dr
simple: the first
term above is the
’ kinetic energy 0 contained in the
0
dynamic (wind) KINETIC ENERGY INTERNAL ENERGY*=*"* blast, while the second term represents the The two terms for the blast wave ene7GQY sera energy o 2 the blast (dynamic pressure and Overpressure) (raitseas heat and related static overpressure). So the theoretical basis for the calculation of blast energy absorption by a city is not rocket science, and it's not based on speculations or guesswork. And this is not "new" either, since Brode's 1954 equations for calculating blast wave's with a computer include energy balance, and you can with modern computers easily incorporate the irreversible energy losses due to the blast
wave successively oscillating, one after another, the buildings with with it interacts as it travels outward in a modern city. William G.
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Penney gives the real basis for calculating the energy loss due to blast damage in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in his 1970 paper, which contains numerous detailed, precise calculations and measurements showing how the act of causing destruction to steel and concrete, in addition to the mere oscillations of buildings, reduced the energy content of the blast and thus the pressure fell more quickly with distance in those cities, than measured in unobstructed desert or ocean during his nuclear testing programme. (In 1985 John Malik of Los Alamos simply ignored in his report, LA-8819, all Penney's hard won facts from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, without going into details at all. Glasstone and Dolan reference Penney's 1970 paper, but simply ignore its findings on blast attenuation in Hiroshima and Nagasak. So much for scientific progress! Note also that Penney's 12 kt yield for Hiroshima is lower than the current estimate of 16 kt, implying even more blast absorption in Hiroshima than Penney found, because the unattenuated free field pressures from
16 kt will be greater than those from 12 kt!)
Now consider the energy absorption in the plastic region for reinforced concrete. The calculations of energy absorption in oscillating a building are for the small "elastic response" region of the pressure-displacement curve. But vast amounts of energy are absorbed beyond that elastic limit, and yet at pressures lower than required to make a reinforced concrete building collapse (always ignored by ignorant shelter critics, as Lord Baker explained, for shelter design in his 1978 book which we reviewed in detail a few posts back). There is a summary of the key building parameters America uses in calculating the effects of nuclear blast on buildings of various kinds in Table 15.6 on page 525 of Northrop's 1996 Handbook of Nuclear Weapon Effects, Calculational Tools Abstracted from EM-1: building 15.2.2 (3-8 story reinforced concrete, small window area) has a severe damage ductility ratio of 7.5, i.e. it fails and collapses (severe damage) when the displacement is 7.5 times the maximum elastic response. Put another way, the plastic limit for reinforced concrete is 7.5 times the elastic displacement limit. Northrop's figure 15.7 shows the extension versus applied pressure load. The energy absorbed in the elastic limit is a triangle terminating at a displacement of 1 ductility unit (units are extension/elastic limit extension), so it has an area of 0.5 units (energy absorption for oscillating the building, see diagram below). But the plastic response is not a triangle but a unit high rectangle which starts at one unit and extends to 7.5 units (severe damage/collapse), its area is thus 7.5 - 1 = 6.5 units, so it absorbs 6.5/0.5 = 13 times as much energy as that used to oscillate the building elastically! So reinforced concrete buildings can absorb 13 times more energy in being damaged, than they can absorb in oscillating elastically. The ratio of total energy absorbed to flatten the buildings, to the maximum energy that can be absorbed elastic oscillate it, is (6.5 + 0.5)/0.5 = 14. Thus, the total energy absorption by a building
can be 14 times that involved in merely oscillating it!
EM-T7: ratio of energy to flatten vs. oscillate jo;
modern city buildings ene city intc
. tha Elastic 7
zone Inelastic aka plastic zone (VERY BIG). buil
red blu:
Loadine
Energy = this area.
7 u Ductility ratio (extension)
ABOVE: model of a building having a blast, the simple engineering graph from EM-1 showing the ratio of energy needed to total a building to that which merely oscillates it. The axes depict loading force and displacement, respectively, so the areas under the curve beautifully correspond to energy absorbed, allowing us to calculate the total energy needed to flatten a city very easily (from a simple,
standard physics formula, energy E = Fx), in terms of multiples of the energy needed to just oscillate the buildings elastically. Northrop's
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data for other types of buildings are as follows: type 15.2.5 wood frame house has the same 7.5 ductility ratio for collapse, so it can absorb
in plastic deformation 13 times the elastic oscillatory energy; type 15.2.3 brick house has a ductility ratio of 4 for severe damage, and a
type 15.2.10 3-10 story steel-frame office building has a ductility ratio of 10 for severe damage. This is precisely Lord Baker's principle of
the Morrison table shelter (for details, please see Lord Baker's 1978 book about the problems with explaining this to the bureaucratic
nutters who don't understand the physics behind engineering, the brilliantly titled Enterprise versus Bureaucracy) where the plastic
deformation of steel is used to absorb many times more energy than it can absorb elastically. In other words, it's the damage done (plastic
deformation of reinforced concrete) that really absorbs vast amounts of blast energy, not the smaller energy absorption from elastic
oscillations of a building! Northrop's table 15.6 shows that the reinforced concrete building, type 15.2.2, has a natural period of oscillation
of about 0.3 second, and a static yield resistance of about 3 psi. Northrop's Figure 15.10 shows it has 50% probability of severe damage at
2.85 km from a 1 megaton surface burst on an ideal, unobstructed desert surface with no blast energy absorption by buildings intervening
between that target and ground zero! For comparison, a similar 1 megaton surface burst in unobstructed desert is shown in Northrop's Figure 15.11 to have 50% probability of destroying a typical British brick house at 4.42 km ground range (50% severe damage probability), whereas Figure 15.18 gives a range of only 2.74 km for collapse of 3-10 story steel-frame buildings from a 1 megaton
surface burst on unobstructed, open terrain.
[ 357 ]
THE NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE YIELDS AT HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI
By LORD PENNEY, F.RS., Imperial College
D. E. J. SAMUELS anv G, C, SCORGIE United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority
(Received 13 October 1969)
[Plates 2 to 9]
CONTENTS PAGE PAGE 1, InrRoDUCTION 358 Nagasaki 389 Hiroshima and Nagasaki 389 2, GROUND ZEROS AND THE HEIGHTS Bending of mild steel roof ladders 392 OF BURST 361 Prison wall at Nagasaki 398 3. BLAsT DATA AND THE PRESSURE 6. DisTORTION OR BREAKING OF PULSE INSIDE BUILDINGS 362 PANELS 399 Blast data ; 362 Tool cabinet in Nagasaki 403 The drag coefficients — 368 Office cabinets at Hiroshima 404 The pressure pulse inside a Dishing of a safe door in building doh 369 Hiroshima 405 The pressure inside a building: Wooden platform floor in effect of window glass 370 Hiroshima Telephone Exchange 410 4, DRAG OBSERVATIONS ON CIRCULAR 7, CRUSHED CANS AND DRUMS 412 y 37 SENDERS " Four-gallon cans 412 Poles on Hypothec Bank and im Forty-six-gallon drums 413 Chugoku Building 372 Can at 3100 ft in Nagasaki 416 Model experiments 373 Blue-print container: Hiroshima 417 Computer calculations 377 Wooden power line poles 380 8, REGAPITULATION OF YIELD The bending of I beam poles 383 ESTIMATES AND BEST VALUES 417 5. DAMAGE DRAG EFFECTS OTHER THAN 9, APPENDIX 420 ON CIRCULAR CYLINDERS 384 The dynamic pressure 420 Memorial stones 384 Dynamics of elastic-plastic Hiroshima 387 cantilever 421 Nagasaki (Nishigo) 387 Hiroshima 388 10. REFERENCES 424
‘The nuclear explosive yields at Hiroshima and Nagasaki have been calculated from measurements of the damage caused to some objects whose dynamical responses were simple enough to permit analysis. Examples include bent or snapped poles, squashed empty drums and cans, overturned memorial stones, some safe doors and the tops of office cabinets pushed in by the blast. ‘he Hiroshima explosion was 12 + 1 kilotons and the Nagasaki explosion was 22 + 2 kilotons,
Vol. 266. A. 1177. (Price £2. 8s.; U.S. $6.25) 44 [Published 11 June 1970
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RESEARCH MEMORANDUM to a megh mumber (u), The radial dis reduced dimensionless units (r, being
NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS OF SPHERICAL BLAST WAVES that H. L. Brode uw x/t RM-1363~-AEC where € is a length expressing the ex 29 September 1954 Lot is the totel blast energy anid E,
https://www.rand.org/pubs/resea
rch_memoranda/RM1363.html subtracted term represents the pre~st
the shosk, and R is the shoek radius.
In fact DTRA and its predecessors back to General Groves of the Manhattan project have has been covering-up the facts determined at Hiroshima in order to foster a delusion that strategic nuclear bombing against cities can work, despite failing. Anyone can simply move people out of cities (as the UK did with kids in Operation Pied Piper, 1 Sept. '39) before declaring war, and then your entire pathetic "countervalue strategic" anti-city deterrent is flushed straight down the pan! This undermines credible nuclear deterrence, which requires tactical nuclear weapons to prevent the invasions that set off both world wars (Belgium '14, Poland '39). It Ukraine had that it wouldn't be in the situation it's now in. Nuclear disarmament didn't make it safe. DUH! (And no, Mr "Scientific American", Hitler did not send the luftwaffe to bomb the kids being evacuated from London on 1 September 1939!)
Professor Bridgman's Introduction to the Physics of Nuclear Weapons Effects can be used to demonstrate the exaggerations in Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons when Glasstone's free-field (unobstructed terrain) nuclear effects predictions from desert and ocean nuclear tests are improperly applied to concrete cities. Bridgman, for instance, considers a building with an exposed area of 163 square metres, a mass of 455 tons and natural frequency of 5 oscillations per second, and finds that a peak overpressure of 10 psi (69 kPa) and peak dynamic pressure of 2.2 psi (15 kPa) at 4.36 km ground range from a | Mt air burst detonated at 2.29 km altitude, with overpressure and dynamic pressure positive durations of 2.6 and 3.6 seconds, respectively, produces a peak deflection of 19 cm in the building about 0.6 second after shock arrival. The peak deflection is computed from Bridgman's formula on p. 304. This 19 cm computed maximum deflection allows us to estimate how much energy is permanently and irreversibly absorbed from the blast wave by a building (if damaged, additional energy is absorbed and is transformed into slow-moving - relative to the shock front velocity - debris which falls to the ground and is quickly stopped after the blast has passed it) by: E = Fx, where F is force (i.e., product of total pressure and area) and x
is distance moved in direction of force due to the applied force from the blast wave.
If the average pressure for the first 0.5 second is equal to 12 psi (83 kPa) then the average force on the building during this time is 13 million Newtons, and the energy absorbed is: E = Fx = 13,000,000*0.19 = 2.6 MJ, which is removed from the blast wave in the form of
oscillations of the building. Successive absorption by building after building rapidly absorbs blast energy in this way.
Although you could say the blast wave from a 50% blast nuclear megaton warhead contains 2.1 x 10°15 Joules, the blast wave energy rapidly decreases as it dumps hot air behind it to form the fireball (Glasstone omits the fireball energy partition after blast breakaway, but the DELFIC mushroom cloud module shows that, to fit observed cloud parameters theoretically, fully 45% of the yield is hot air dumped behind the blast that powers the mushroom cloud rise and expansion, so 50-45 = 5% of total yield (or 1/10 of original blast yield) remains in the blast wave after the negative phase fully develops). In addition, the blast forms a 3-d hemisphere so that the percentage of the total blast energy in the Mach front intercepting buildings near the surface is small and gets smaller as the blast propagates! It is only that part which causes damage that gets attenuated; furthermore the yield scaling issue increases the building shielding effect for larger yields, because the radial distance being considered is increased. For example, in the example above, 10 psi peak overpressure (69 kPa in SI units) occurs at 4.36 km from a 1 megaton strategic bomb, but the 163 square metres of the building is only a small fraction, f, of the blast
hemisphere at that range, namely f = 163/(2*Pi*4360%2) = 163/120,000,000 = 1.37*10{-6}. So if the blast still contained 5% of the total
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
0.25
| BUILDIN
BSORPTION OF
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NONSEISMIC REINFORCED-CONCRETE BUILDINGS
OVERPRESSURE (psi)
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POINT BUILDING NO. INDIVIDUALS NO. DESIGNATION EXPOSED | POST OFFICE 400 2 TELEGRAPH OFFICE 301 : 3 TELEPHONE OFFICE 474 Birmingham 4 CITY HALL 216 5 COMMUNICATIONS OFFICE 682 Glasgow 6 BRANCH POST OFFICE 346 7 PO. SAVINGS OFFICE 750 Liverpool
UK National Archives: HC
HOME (¢ SCIENTIFIC ADV!
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strictly limited, Me Shr It is issued for the personal SECRET
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WWII Morrison shelter co-inventor (with wrote this Secret 1954 H bomb survival
Table
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25
Manchester
It will be seen from Tables 4 and evacuation of a central area and ahelt
bomb causes no deaths at all. oaitaige| our provisions and might well choose maximum casualtics. On average, and w which would be bound to occur in the " about 7 miles from the centre in the c ___ other cities. The average deaths from
100 megaton attack (five 20 megaton H-b deaths if cities were evacuated and peop 5 miles from Trafalgar Square in London, Russians deliberately tried to target thes: protection of 90, then you would get unde bombs were detonated 2 miles from cent were detonated at a radius where the pez
Naturally, if the evacuation was like that
(anyone who could not take to shelter rea
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ky WENT eves, WONEUY iy CUNUNUSS, Wied iy DEAWE, anu vernTS
A Tay en ee Sin Cumann oo Oe Madlonl lant fom dispersal prevents this re-targetting. Eva weapon yield at this stage (1/10 of the original blast yie yield), ‘the total blast energy striking the building's surface area would be just (2.1 x
10%14 )* 1.37*10%{-6} = 2.9*108 Joules, proving that the oscillations of the building removed 2.6MJ of 290MJ blast energy intercepted,
nearly 1%, which is a similar fraction to Penney's finding in Hiroshima.
You get additional, greater, energy loss due to damage done to buildings close to the fireball. For n such buildings in a radial line, the cumulative removal of blast energy fraction is: exp(-2.6n/290), which is greater for the larger blast damage distances in built up areas predicted for effects of higher yields! So increasing the yield increases the shielding for any given free-field pressure (the distance of
which scales up with yield)!
Even with wooden 1-storey houses predominating in Hiroshima, Lord Penney who took away the overpressure debris (crushed petrol cans, etc) for analysis in England in 1945 found the blast energy at Hiroshima decreased exponentially due to blast attenuation caused by damage done, by comparing his results to the free-field Maralinga desert values for British nuclear tests
without a precursor. This was all ignored by Uncle Sam (Glasstone)!
We have already given in many posts extensive evidence proving that concrete buildings in Hiroshima and modern cities absorb thermal, nuclear and blast effects in a way totally ignored by Glasstone's unobstructed desert analysis. Strategic nuclear deterrence is thus bunk, if based on nuclear test effects data from unobstructed desert or open ocean. We need tactical nuclear deterrence to stop invasions and the use of force, not an incredible threat of bombs on cities, which is analogous to the gas and incendiary bombing exaggerations of the 1920s and 1930s which failed to deter WWII. The exaggerations were made by both lying disarmers (to scare people into disarmament) and by lying proponents of aerial bombing in war (to scare enemies into surrender). The resulting pseudo "consensus of expert opinion" from both groups had tragic consequences. Strategic bombing, megatons of ~100 kg high explosive on Germany, equivalent to a large nuclear attack however you scale the megatonnage (by the 2/3 power of blast yield for peak overpressure over unobstructed terrain, or by an even weaker function of yield for initial nuclear radiation), also failed to produce military results when civilians were bombed. The two low yield nuclear weapons dropped over mostly wooden houses in Japan did not produce the results publically claimed (for propaganda) for modern concrete cities. We've been blogging this for years, ignored by the loons who prefer anti-nuclear lies about
strategic nuclear deterrence! So to correct Glasstone for urban areas:
(1). Simply use Lord Penney's exponential attenuation formula from Hiroshima to reduce peak overpressures in cities: exp(- R/3.25) for R being radial distance through a city in kilometres. This reduces peak overpressure by 50% at 2.2 km. (Obviously precise
effects depend on details, but this is a "baseline" for minimal blast attenuation, in cities with predominantly wood frame buildings.)
(2). Simply use George R. Stanbury's formula for predicting the thermal flash shadowing, by calculating the number of exposed upper floors that can geometrically "see" the fireball as a function of range, so that the number of computed flash burns correspond to the number of windows that can see the fireball (e.g. for 50 ft wide streets, 3 miles from a 1 megaton surface burst, only the highest floor can "see" the fireball since the angle from the top of the fireball to building top artificial skyline is 13.5 degrees; if the buildings are on average 10 floors high, the percentage burns and fire risk is therefore 1/10 for one side of a building with 4 sides, i.e. 1/40 which is smaller than the 1/10 assumed by some simplistic propaganda; but you then get into the issue of the size of the windows and whether the people inside are protected by shadows from walls or furnishings or internal office cubicle partitions or even other people in between the target and the fireball in the office, all of which reduce the simplistic "theoretical" estimates of the number of people burned, instead of assuming that no buildings or screening exists at all as in anti- nuclear propaganda for so-called "arms control" (war via appeasement/disarmament as in the 1930s). Stanbury points out there, and in his August 1962 Restricted UK Home Office Scientific Advisory branch Fission Fragments article on Fires from nuclear weapons, that to produce firestorms in Germany - the allies tried hard to achieve this in 1943 to end the war (and firestorms produce the associated soot clouds for climatic "nuclear winter" effects hype) you needed 50% of buildings to be initially ignited, which was only possible in the (now burned and gone) medieval wooden areas of Hamburg and Hiroshima (due to blast-overturned charcoal braziers in wooden houses in Japan, not the thermal flash which was obstructed by rooms and other buildings). Stanbury's studies of the thermal flash shielding in Liverpool and Birmingham showed that the thermal radiation is shielded to such an extent you simply can't get to within an order of magnitude of that 50% ignition incidence needed for a Hamburg style intense firestorm (or, therefore, nuclear
winter due to Hamburg type firestorm soot clouds penetrating the stratosphere)!
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175 smoke pots 200-300 ft from ground zero established
(white smoke screen can be seen to the right of ground z distance of 2238 feet from bomb (or 2166 ft from ground : thermal exposure was 57.5 +/- 5.0 cal/cm’2; behind smok Hence, 98.6% +/-0.3° s stopped by the smoke screen.
Glasstone however first lied in the 1$ Nuclear Weapons (page 289, parag! be stopped (without giving any specific
credible, then he removed all reference 1 editions. Liars ; still claim he is "authoritatr
The effect of scattered thermal radiation diffusing into shadows was insignificant at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, where burns from thermal
radiation were only received in an unobstructed radial line from the fireball, so that any shielding provided virtually complete protection from thermal flash. The 110 Castle-3 shot at Bikini Atoll in 1954 was fired during a moderate rainstorm to obtain data on the reduction of blast and thermal effects by rainfall. There are no films that show the fireball because the water content of the air absorbed the thermal and visible transmission. Heavy rain or fog absorbs the thermal radiation locally around the fireball, rather than creating a large amount of dangerously wide-angle scattered radiation at great distances. Northrop's 1996 Handbook of Nuclear Weapon Effects: Calculational Tools Abstracted from EM-1, gives data for Pacific test conditions in Figure 6.39 on page 248, on the effect of scattered thermal radiation from a
burst at 1 km altitude, at various distances and for different fields of view:
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At 10 km ground range, 43% of the thermal radiation in unobstructed terrain is direct (from the fireball), and 57% is scattered, but the angular distribution of scattering is not extreme (most of the scattering comes from air relatively near the fireball): the total (direct plus scattered) is 80% for a 30 degrees field of view (only 20% of the thermal radiation comes from angles exceeding 30 degrees from the radial line to the burst). Only 4% of the total thermal radiation at 10 km comes from angles beyond 90 degrees (i.e. 96% comes from the
hemisphere around a target facing the burst).
At 30 km ground range, 16% of the thermal radiation in unobstructed terrain is direct (from the fireball), and 84% is scattered, but the angular distribution of scattering is not extreme (most of the scattering comes from air relatively near the fireball): the total (direct plus scattered) is 70% for a 40 degrees field of view (only 30% of the thermal radiation comes from angles exceeding 40 degrees from the radial line to the burst). Only 6% of the total thermal radiation at 10 km comes from angles beyond 90 degrees (i.e. 94% comes from the
hemisphere around a target facing the burst).
Northrop's 1996 Handbook of Nuclear Weapon Effects: Calculational Tools Abstracted from EM-1, also gives graphs of the thermal radiation spectrum, showing differences with burst altitude and yield. Figure 6.19 shows that a | kt surface burst gives a thermal spectrum which peaks at 1.1 micron (Planck radiating temperature = 2000 K), compared to 0.4 micron (Planck radiating temperature = 5000 K) for 1 kt air bursts at 1-30 km altitude. Figure 6.21 shows there is much less difference between the spectra for surface and air bursts for 1 megaton yield: 0.70 micron peak in the thermal spectrum (Planck radiating temperature = 3800 K) for a megaton surface burst, compared
with 0.52 microns (Planck radiating temperature = 4500 K) for a 30 km altitude megaton burst.
Northrop's 1996 Handbook of Nuclear Weapon Effects: Calculational Tools Abstracted from EM-1, in Figure 16.10 uses hydrodynamic
calculations to prove that the maximum fire wind velocity in a firestorm is only a weak function of the fire intensity, for example a fire with a radius of 10 km will create a maximum fire wind velocity of 17 m/s for a fire intensity of 25 kW/m, but this only increases to 36
m/s if the fire intensity is increased to 240 kW/m.
Remember also that nuclear test evidence shows that the risk of clothing or other items burning is less for real levels of office humidity than for target materials left to dry out in the Nevada at the lower humidity of Nevada nuclear tests like Encore; clothing shields thermal
radiation and increases burns energy requirements contrary to Glasstone.
Northrop's 1996 Handbook of Nuclear Weapon Effects: Calculational Tools Abstracted from EM-1, Table 14.5 on page 501 also points out that while people standing nude 2 metres behind glass windows watching the nuclear blast approach them will receive a 50% median dose of 3 glass fragment abdominal wall penetrations at a peak overpressure of 7 psi, it takes 15 psiif they are wearing clothing! If they duck and cover, they will can avoid the directional flying glass (and the thermal burns) completely. What Northrop doesn't tell you is that in a built up city, the dynamic pressure needed to energise those glass fragments to lethal velocities don't exist 2 metres behind glass windows in general; only behind those windows facing the fireball with an unobstructed view. Other windows on all all sides of the building will certainly break if the overpressure is high enough, but the blast wind (dynamic pressure) is directional and so the windows will not be blasted inwards with the same speed (at lower pressures they can even fail in the negative phase and be sucked outwards, with no hazard whatsoever to occupants!). Northop (1996) in chapter 14 on personnel casualties gives very high mortality rates based on unprotected head impacts, particularly for standing personnel, e.g. 5 psi for 50% mortality for people standing in buildings swept through by blast winds. Again, this assumes the blast winds are not obstructed and attenuated by the other surrounding buildings in a city, but it also suggests a simple civil defense precaution to accompany duck and cover in a crisis situation: bicycle helmets can be kept under emergency table "shelters" and can be put on quickly before the blast arrives, after a nuclear explosion, to minimise head trauma from flying debris or bodily translation and impact for high dynamic pressures and long blast durations. With duck and cover, you can avoid wind drag or injury from flying debris and you can keep away from a blast reflecting surface, then Northop shows in Figures 14.2 and 14.3 that you have 50% chance of surviving 37 psi peak overpressure from | megaton if you are lying down perpendicular to the direction of approach of the blast wave, or 62 psi if your are lying parallel to the direction of the blast (i.e., lying down facing away from the flash). In other words, blast is
then very survivable!
(3). Simply allow nuclear radiation doses in modern cities to be attenuated severely by a factor of about 100 (from the 2011 Los Alamos report unobstructed desert "free field" initial nuclear radiation dose data study for the shadowing by intervening the buildings of in New York City) - before you include the actual shielding by a building people are in, which is much better for INR than Glasstone claims, because essentially ALL of the urban area outdoor 100-fold reduced radiation dose is SCATTERED, not direct, so it is energy-degraded and not the highest-energy direct gamma and neutrons (which are attenuated severely on the transit through all the
buildings in the radial line from the bomb)! Putting in "/100" to the computer formulae is not rocket-science! Simple. Nothing in the
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O
40 10
Direct nuclear radiation is rapidly attenuated by modern city concrete skylines, so only the 09 highly scattered radiation gets to you, and,
i lower energy, is also easily attenuated
08 SEC GAM a > o7 AIR-GROUND SECONDARY i GAMMA RAYS y 06 | CONCRETE -CAPTURE 2 es GAMMA RAYS 5 © | NEUTRONS : 04 ©O 2 0.3 Gc. FISSION— PRODUCT GAMMA RAYS << 01 0 O41 O02 O3 FRACTION
Effect of neutron an on the angular distr dose, 1.2 km from tl FROM: J. A. Auxier, Free-Field Environm Initial Radiation Shi ORNL-TM-3396.
10° ,
10 10° Open Field Dose
CONCRETE THICKNESS (in.) FROM: L. G. Mooney, Ca/culations of Weapons Radiation Doses in Single Compartment Above-Ground Concrete Structures, Radiation Research Associates, Inc., RRA-M93 (November 26, 1969). RIGHT: K. Millage, Modelling the Effects of Nuclear Weapons in an Urban Setting, Applied Research Associates (2011) found 100-fold dose reduction:
300 Distar
universe is perfect, but this correction is easy, and gives a minimal baseline for realism for the urban effects of nuclear weapons, lacking in all anti-nuclear diatribes. For higher yield weapons, the increased ranges for given radiation doses will lead to increased attenuation, since at increased ranges there will be more concrete buildings intervening in the the radial line from fireball to target, and although scattered radiation builds up at greater distances, it has lower energy than unscattered radiation and therefore is less penetrating (easier to shield). The most penetrating and wide-angle scattered nuclear radiation dose is from neutrons, but for the full range of 13 different nuclear weapon designs in the 1984 EM-1, the effective mean free-path for the surface burst neutron dose over the distance 1-2 km only ranges from 189 to 221 metres (the latter being weapon type 13, the neutron bomb). (The neutron dose will essentially completely arrived - except for a small portion due to delayed neutrons from fission products like bromine-90 - before blast damage occurs to those buildings
Icated near the crater.) Glasstone is widely ignored when pointing out in one table in the last chapter - contrary to many free-field charts
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and graphs - that 50% survival in modern concrete buildings in Hiroshima occurred at 0.12 mile for the 16 kt air burst at 600 m; this scales up by the cube-root scaling law to predict 50% survival at 1.2 miles from a 16 megaton air burst at 6 km altitude; initial radiation dose
distances scale as a weaker function of yield than blast.
Additionally, the blast effects data (relating say overpressure to casualties) is way off in left-wing anti-nuclear propaganda. The actual Hiroshima and Nagasaki data proves much greater survival than bogus theoretical assessments: in reality, 100% people are not nude standing behind windows facing the blast while wearing roller-skates to ensure they are frictionlessly blown straight out of the 42nd floor by a 3psi blast, and killed by the impact from the gravitational fall to the pavement 420 feet below. Instead of the 1979 US Office of technology assessment claim that 50% of people are killed at 5psi, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki more than twice this was needed for the same effect, even without effective duck and cover or taking shelter (CLICK HERE FOR REPORT CONTAINING THE EVIDENCE FOR THIS). Although blast duration increases with yield, this has no effect if the pressure is below the threshold for damage, so Glasstone's curves are wrong for not reverting to cube-root scaling at high yields (impulse rules at low yields, peak pressures rule at high yields; Glasstone ignores this transition in his nonographs for building damage, which is corrected by by the secret EM-1; report Dirkwood Corp report DC-P-1060 found that the blast mortality effect was 50% at 32 psi peak overpressure in modern non-seismic concrete buildings in Hiroshima, or 17 psi for 1 megaton, without duck-and-cover to
reduce exposure to flying glass, debris and blast wind drag; contrasted to 5 psi in anti-nuclear disarmament propaganda lies).
For the correct application of Hiroshima's lessons to modern higher yield nuclear war threats from Russia, see for instance the 1970s congressional testimony of T. K. Jones of Boeing Corporation in hearings linked HERE (February-March 1976 congressional Civil Defense Review), and HERE (November 1976 Nuclear War Survival hearings). Whenever the factual evidence surfaces, it is falsely labelled "controversial" or "wrong" by lying mainstream media charlatans, fraudsters, and bigoted snake oil salesmen, and ignored for political left-wing propaganda purposes, or the "arms controllers" simply tell lies claiming falsely that civil defense is a joke, just as they did in the 1930s (when civilian gas masks were discounted as a simple solution to deter Hitler from dropping his gas bombs on cities for a knockout blow!) and 1970s, debunked by T. K. Jones' famous 1979 letter to congress, extract below, which led to his being appointed Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategic and Theater Nuclear Forces on June 1, 1981 under the new Reagan Administration, which aimed to win the Cold War by science and technology, not lose freedom via Russian nuclear coercion. Note that while the ACDA - i.e. the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, whose faked nuclear weapons/war effects calculations lay behind the disastrous 1970s nuclear parity SALT farce which now results in dictators again intimidating democracies as was the case in the 1930s due to disarmament scams for "peace" which led to WWII - claimed 50% of people are killed at 5 psi peak overpressure from a megaton, while in fact U.S. classified Defense Nuclear Agency research showed that Russian public shelters were built to take 150 psi i.e. surviving within the 0.83 mile fireball radius of a 5 megaton surface burst, Russian apartment basement shelters were built to survive 60 psi, and good Russian improvised expedient shelters built outside cities survived 40 psi in American blast tests and gave upwards of
200 fallout protection factor (i.e., reducing the maximum hotspots of 20,000 rads to a survivable 100 rads and averting casualties).
ACDA disarmament bigots simply lied in the traditional "H. G. Wells" 1930s-sci-fi-style of disarmament fantasy, in testimony to congress, about the motivation and the detailed work of those people who disproved them, they ignored the classified data on blast and fallout shielding in their "effects" models, or their calculations assumed that people failed to use fallout shelters in order to deceptively "reduce" fallout protection factors by a factor of 7, by simply assuming people would go outside to be exposed to unshielded fallout (like most people, they also massively exaggerated the mean gamma ray energy of fallout during the sheltering period, as we have previously exposed, which is debunked by the measurements after the Redwing Zuni and Tewa tests) - they also lied that Jones didn't include fallout casualties when in fact he did include fallout correctly, finding that you don't get fallout casualties with the high degree of radiation shielding in shelters, an exact analogy to the situation where the 100,000 protection factor of activated charcoal gas mask filters gave no gas casualties in 1938 research, and disarmament bigots tried to claim that was some kind of ignorant dismissal of the horrors of true gas war so they would "arbitrarily" assume that only say 50% of people put on gas masks in order to then falsely claim that gas masks were somehow "calculated" to only work for 50% of people - i.e. only those assumed to be actually wearing them! - a travesty and abuse of scientific modelling (like lying that you have done detailed calculations proving that car seat belts make no difference in accidents, when in fact you have merely assumed that nobody wears the seat belts!), when in fact the true excellence of gas mask protection was proved to successfully deter Hitler from using gas on civilians with gas masks, saving millions contrary to the hate attacks on civil defence by disarmament propaganda deceivers (who recognised that civil defence made deterrence credible, and so was a threat to their bigoted
plans for peace at any price):
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BOEING AEROSPACE COMPANY is
________ A Division of The Bosing Company
January 22, 1979
The Honorable William Proxmire Chairman, Senate Banking Committee United States Senate
Washington, D.C.
Dear Senator Proxmire:
Your request in recent hearings for an explanation of the discrepancy between our estimates and ACDA's estimates of Soviet losses in a nuclear war is clearly important and warrants a clear and candid answer. Unfortunately, Mr. Spurgeon Keeny, the Deputy Director of ACDA, chose to incorrectly represent our work. I appreciate the opportunity to set the record straight and to pofnt out what we have determined to be the factors contributing significantly to the differences between the two estimates.
Population Protection
In his attempt to discredit our work, Mr. Keeny incorrectly inferred that this work was based on mere “assumptions” and “simple ratios." In fact, our approach was to analyti- cally duplicate the provisions of the Soviet Union's civil defense plans and preparations. This effort was supported by extensive research into Soviet literature, use of rigorous system engineering functional analysis techniques, and a program of testing to establish the effectiveness of Soviet shelters and industrial protection methods. Moreover, the impact of uncertainties and possible imperfections in Soviet execution of their plans were examined parametrically.
Mr. Keeny's statement that we “assumed there would be no casualties from fallout" is false. The record of hearings before the Joint Committee on Defense Production (November 17, 1976) clearly shows that the data presented counted as fatalities all
persons receiving a radiation dose of 200 rads or more. Moreover, our more recent studies of which ACDA is aware have treated this value parametrically.
By protecting their people against fallout, the Soviets can substantially limit their population fatalities. Figure 1 shows that even very rudimentary protection, such as basements or expedient shelters, is sufficient to minimize fatalities. In the ACDA analysis, the majority of the evacuees were assumed to have a protection factor of 10 or less, which results in enormously high fatalities compared to what the Soviets could achieve if they carry out even the most modest of the measures outlined in their plans
oe Assumption Variables Versus U.S.S.R.
Civil Defense Effectiveness Degree of Fallout Protection for Evacuees and Rural Population
LIQMELINGS =
PROTECTION LEVEL ASSUMED BY ACDA
60 PROTECTION PROVIDED BY PERCENT FATALITIES AMONG EVACUEES SOVIET EXPEDIENT SHELTERS AND RURAL PROTECTION PROVIDED BY POPULATION 40 RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS
FIGURE 1 0 50 100 150 200 FALLOUT PROTECTION (ATTENUATION) FACTOR
Mr. Keeny has incorrectly characterized our treatment of blast protection. In their cities, the Soviets are building industrial shelters and apartment basement shelters with a blast resistance of at least 150 psi and 60 psi, respectively. These ratings were calculated for the Defense Nuclear Agency based on knowledge of construction
details such as beam dimensions. concrete aualitv. and structural reinforcement size
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and placement. The Soviet designs for expedient Shelters have been built and exten-
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PERCENT
FATALITIES 30 AMONG TOTAL POPULATION
Assumption Variables Versus U.S.S.R. Assumption Variables ' Civil Defense Effectiveness Civil Defense Effi
‘ Blast Protection Provided Evacuec Distance Evacuated
50 100
¢ 88% OF URBAN POPULATION EVACUATED
80
PERCENT 60 FATALITIES AMONG EVACUEES 20 AND RURAL POPULATION 40 POPULATION 500 NON UNIFC CLUSTEREI 10 200 20 94—(UNIFC AGRIC! 0 0 20 40 60 AVERAGE DISTANCE EVACUATED (mi) 9 10 20 FIGURE 2 : SHELTER H/ FIGI
As to the reasons why our results differ from those produced by ACDA: ACDA assumed that 30 percent of the Soviet urban population would not be evacuated but that the good quality shelters would accommodate only 10 percent. Thus, 20 percent of the Sovit urban population was assumed unevacuated and inadequately protected, which of course subjects them to massive losses. The Soviet plans, which we endeavored to represent in our analysis, indicates that urban residents not sheltered will be evacuated.
A second difference centers around the way in which the Soviets choose to distribute and provide blast protection for their evacuees. The ACDA analysis assumed that the Soviets would cluster their evacuees in hosting areas, which we estimate could result - some concentrations as high as 500 persons per square mile. The evacuees were assumed to have no blast protection, so fatalities would occur at 3 to 7 psi according to the source used by ACDA. Figure 3 shows that a distribution of 500 persons per square mil¢ and 3 psi fatal blast level results in a fatality level almost 100 times greater than a uniform distribution and blast protection to 15 psi (the minimum provided by Soviet expedient shelters). It is important to remember that it is the Soviet Union and not the United States that controls such factors as evacuation, distribution, and shelteri! of the Soviet citizens.
The ACDA study of industrial protection, which I have reviewed, is not a competent work The hardness levels known to be achievable on industrial components are seriously under stated while the difficulty of achieving these levels is overstated. The resiliency of industry in recovering from damage is disregarded. The report's fixation on the capa- bility of one-megaton weapons to damage industry is misleading since the U.S. would be able to deliver few of these weapons against Soviet targets. Moreover, the ACDA study fails to assess the impact of protection on the survival and recovery of the Soviet industrial base as a whole.
LAMMELMMUG
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ABOVE: extracts from the famous 1979 T. K. Jones Boeing Corporation letter, page 2, debunking "arms control" nuclear weapons effects liars in detail. This really exasperated my dad, John B. Cook, who was a Civil Defence Corps instructor in the 1950s, but was old enough to live through the 1930s appeasement era when Philip Noel-Baker repeated lied on the effects of gas bombs, claiming gas masks will never work, because babies and the elderly won't put them on properly, blah, blah, so we must ban evil civil defence and instead guarantee peace by appeasing the Nazis because of we don't, they will DEFINITELY gas us all with a massive gas bomb raid on day | of war. In fact, Philip Noel-Baker did this first ina BBC radio speech in 1927, 6 years before Hitler was elected. Family members who knew the truth from gas attacks in WWII - largely negated by simple gas masks and going into shelters for droplets of persistent liquids like mustard agent - had to put up with this lying BBC and other media propaganda for disarmament throughout the 1930s, to the joy of the Nazis who were secretly rearming and preparing for invasions (not necessarily war, since Hitler would have been quite happy to "peacefully" invade the world and then use efficient gas chambers to dispose of those whose race or views he found to be "offensive", like modern snowflakes today). What really irritated dad, however, was that Philip Noel-Baker, having lied about gas effects in his February 1927 BBC radio broadcast and throughout the 1930s to great applause from pacifists who effectively did Hitler's bidding, was made a Lord and a Nobel Peace prize winner for appeasement propaganda lies that led to world war, and then did the same thing all over again during the cold war, issuing nuclear weapons lies. In a 1980 House of Lords debate on Civil Defence, he lied that the air burst in Hiroshima produced lethal fallout: "It covers everything in Hiroshima not already rendered lethal, and so those who have escaped the flash, the blast, the fire, will die within a short time. The first atomic bomb weighed two kilograms. It was little larger than a cricket ball. ... In 1978, more than 2,000 died
in Hiroshima from its long-term effects."
Every word here is totally untrue, and easily disproved, but nobody in the House of Lords explained the facts to him, so this he quotes on page 5 of his 1980 Ecology Party book "How to Survive the Nuclear Age", and on page 6 he adds an attack on civil defence: "I feel the same outrage in 1980 when the Home Office [UK Government civil defence] propose to circulate a a copy of a pamphlet entitled Protect and Survive to every citizen. ... To strengthen the walls and ceilings as the pamphlet suggests, he needed a garden, a spade, sandbags, and the strength to dig and transport a ton of earth." However, the infirm or elderly don't need to hire an army of helpers to make a fallout shelter, because - contrary to Philip Noel-Baker - you can simply use water from a hose to fill up water filled bags inside boxes which do the shielding, as explained in the Home Office scientific advisory branch Fission Fragments magazine article (reprinted in the Royal Observer Corps Journal, vol. 27, issue 2, February 1985, page 26, below). In any case, in actual implementation, you would have some organization for civil defence in time of crisis, with people in nighbourhoods helping one another (lending hose pipes, helping to assemble emergency shelters around tables in homes, etc). Noel-Baker ends his case by absurdly calling for disarmament as a "sure way to avoid the war", by again ignoring the lessons of his own 1930s disarmament war effects propaganda which led to appeasement and thus the encouragement of enemy aggression, triggering the Second World War: "This is not a utopian dream. It is the system by which David Lloyd George disarmed Germany in 1919..." This claim typifies Noel-Baker's absurd, self-contradictory nonsense, since DLG's 1919
"system" led to another, far worse, world war, not to peace.
In that 1980 Ecology Party book "How to Survive the nuclear age", there is after the deceptions from Labour Party Lord Noel-Baker, a summary of civil defence shelter advice, but then the book ends with the transcript of the final big speech from Lord Mountbatten to the arms control anti-nuclear propaganda institute SIPRI at Strasbourg on 11 May 1979 (the IRA tragically ended his appeasement campaign with a bomb on his boat off the coast of Sligo, Ireland, on 27 August 1979): "A military confrontation between the nuclear powers could entail the horrifying risk of nuclear warfare [hardly likely if we have overwhelming superiority for credible deterrence, as we should have had - but did not have - in the 1930s to deter Hitler]. ... Anew world war can hardly fail to involve the all-out use of nuclear weapons [this is debunked by former NATO General Sir John Hackett's book "The Third World War" which shows how escalation risks will be controlled even in the event of a Russian first-strike on Britain, provided that we are prepared for nuclear war - this book will be discussed in detail later in this blog post, below]. ... Let us all resolve to take all possible practical steps to ensure that we do not, through our own folly, go
over the edge."
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FROM: "Royal Observer Corps Journal",
Feb. 1985, page 26
We . é rs SSN SAN CENA Oe ee Oe
A. L. Mather ex-SA, Northumberland
in ‘Protect and Survive’ a recommendation is made on page 11 para. 2 ‘Use tables if they are large enough to provide you all with shelter. Surround them and cover them with heavy furniture filled with sand, earth, books or clothing’. Similar shelters are proposed in paras 1 and 3.
Apart from the fact that under certain circumstances of location and weather sufficient soil may not be available, none of the materials suggested for radiation protection is of use to the shelter-bound occupants. The use of survival supplies as a radiation barrier is to be recommended, if not, indeed considered essential. As previously suggested fuel supplies, which have a half value thickness approaching that of soil, could be used in this way. Food supplies should be stacked in boxes as the inner protective barrier together with immediate water supplies. Water has a half value thickness of 200mm compared with 140mm for earth. One therefore has only to create a water barrier 50% greater in width to equate with a soil barrier. The water barrier can be erected in a very short time merely by filling suitable containers by means of a hosepipe. In this way an adequate shelter can be made in a fraction of the time needed for the filling and transportation of sandbags. Further this would provide a strategic supply of water for fire fighting, drinking, washing and for the later survival period during which water supplies may be limited.
Cheap containers would be needed for such a barrier and dustbins, plastic bottles etc would be expensive and inconvenient to store when not required. There is, however, a suitable container made by Bowater Scott Ltd (and possibly by other companies) which is used for the conveyance of milk. These are double walled plastic bags of five gallon capacity with screw caps. The bags are supplied flat together with fold flat heavy duty cardboard boxes. When the box is erected and the plastic bag within is filled, it takes the shape of the box and forms a fairly rigid ‘brick’ of water of dimensions 25 cm x 24 cm x 42 cm. These bricks may be stacked to a height of 4 units (on
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a
° + FRAGIE their side) without and access may t which is attached prevent the growtl Not only can or shelter but these improve radiation improve fire prote: these bags is low | the thickness of increase the cost improved by simp One weakness bags to rupture by openings should | carpets, heavy tir There would be aspect would nee; However as the h then the equivaler area of the floor. The progressiv shelter will allow barrier. The empt'
This system wc shelters but there supplement barrit collapsed form ari an emergency the a very short perio considerable helr people with only :
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EXTRACTS Table B-1. Severe/Moderate Blast Damage Radii for Surface Bursts (metesr)
ALPHA | BRAVO|CHARLIE|DELTA | EC Material classification 0.01 0.05 0.10 0.50 ‘ Field fortifcations
Earth covered surface shelters
Monumental-type multistory wall-bearing bldgs.
Multistory, wall-bearing bldgs (apt house type)
Multistory, reinforced bldgs (small windown area) Multistory, steel frame office bidgs.
Wood frame kldgs.
SOURCE: U.S. ARMY FIELD MANUAL "FM 5-26, EMPLOYMENT OF ATOMIC DEMOLITION MUNITIONS (ADM), AUGUST 1971".
PROTECTION (CASUALTY = _AREA OF SEVERE DAMAGE FOR HIROSHIMA'S WOOD FRAN REDUCTION FACTOR) AREA OF SEVERE DAMAGE FOR EARTH COVERED SURFAC| = 6907/ 1007 = 6.97 ~ 50 FOR A 1 KILOTON SURFACE BURST.
SO MOVING TO EARTH COVERED SHELTERS REDUCES CASUALTIES TO 2%, AND THEY ALS‘ RADIATION SHIELDING. IN ADDITION, THE "FIRESTORM" AND ITS "SOOT NUCLEAR WINTE! FANTASY, WERE DEBUNKED BY GEORGE R. STANBURY, WHO PLANNED THE GERMAN
FIRESTORMS; YOU NEEDED 50% IGNITION OF MEDIEVAL WOODEN HOUSES IN HAMBURG T START A FIRESTORM, WHEREAS THE SIMPLE FIREBALL SHADOWING OF HIGH-RISE MODER CITY SKYLINES REDUCES THIS TO 5% OR LESS, PREVENTING FIRESTORMS AND CLIMATIC EFFECTS. THIS IS SUPPRESSED BY THE NUCLEAR EXAGGERATIONS BIAS OF JOURNALIST:
UNCLASS Fy hpeadGO” —.
ii latest American JOINT DOD/DOE TRIDENT MK4/MK5 REENTRY BODY "counterforce" ALTERNATE WARHEAD PHASE 2 FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT (U) nuclear weapons,
the oralloy (Oak Ridge Alloy, aka
U235 loaded 9.3.1.2.1. (S) SSPK Against 52L7 secondary stage) W88 nuclear The SPETWG calculated the SSPK of each candidate against a target with a § 50L7 warheads were ° °
in (2) designed to knock RE er png enemas — DE a tes =z, When the W88/MKS was developed, this was the assessed VNTK of the hardest Soviet silos. Although those SS-18 silos have since been assessed to be much harder than 7000 psi, the SPETWG considers 52L7 to be a ih significant figure of effectiveness for this system because of the history of its use. eee The was used, and the results varied monotonically with yield, with a tS A el
a NCLASSIFIED cs
vulnerability
out the huge well shock-insulated Russian SS-18
number of 52L7,
corresponding to a peak overpressure of 7000 psi, which is well within the crater radius. This is highly relevant today, since ehe SS-18 (in Russian
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nomenclature: R-36M2) is still in service (like the American W88), and the Russians have 46 of them, each with 10 warheads of 800 kilotons each, 1.e. a total of 10x46 = 460 nuclear warheads and 3680 megatons. These 211 ton SS-18s are due to be replaced with the latest 208 ton Sarmat (RS-28) missiles (which made its first test flight on 20 April 2022, during the Ukraine war), extending the range from 11,000 km for the SS-18 to 18,000 km for the Sarmat. Unfortunately, as this declassified report shows, as with the Russian civil defense shelters, the silo hardness was underrated and the physical vulnerability is not 52L7 as originally supposed. The SS-18 silos could take much higher peak overpressures than 7000 psi and related ground shock, cratering throwout, etc. (The current "best guess" - and this is not proof tested due to the ban on atmospheric nuclear testing - is that it takes a peak overpressure of 10,000 psi to blow the silo door off the SS-18 silo and wreck the missile, which occurs at a distance from the warhead similar to its inertial gyroscopic CEP targetting error if the accurate GPS satellite navigation system is taken out by high altitude bursts, so to get a high kill probability you need to target many warheads per silo, a hugely inefficient strategy when all the enemy has to do is launch the SS-18 out of the silo before your warheads arrive!) In addition to this underestimate of the hardness of vital military "counterforce" targets in Russia, the Americans also massively over-estimated the cratering and ground shock effects for high yields in ordinary soils (not easily broken coral reefs!). (For references, please see the earlier blog posts about cratering exaggerations linked here and here.) The points we want people to take away,
or at least openly investigate and question are:
(1) countervalue (anti-city) effects of nuclear weapons are bunk because, aside from the mistakes and deliberate omissions Glasstone and Dolan made for propaganda purposes in their 1977 edition, if the chips really do go down, you or your opponent can simply evacuate cities - most of which self-evacuate at 5pm every weekday, anyhow - evacuation is not a miracle, despite what Scientific American or Bulletin of Atomic Scientists says - before issuing an ultimatum, just as the UK did with evacuating kids from London in Operation Pied
Piper on 1 September 1939 before issuing an ultimatum and then declaring war 48 hours later,
(2) you or your opponent can not only safeguard the civilians in cities by evacuating them (or putting the people into shelters/basements etc if you have them, as the Russians do, and as thankfully the Ukrainians do which is a key reason they have been able to fight the Russian invasion, as a result of having previously been part of the civil defense obsessed USSR), but 100% of missiles in silos can also be safeguarded from destruction by simply firing them out of their silos, if seriously threatened by a counterforce (anti-silo) enemy attack. In other words, if you decide to credibly target enemy nuclear weapons (a very costly strategy in terms of the number of W88 warheads per silo for any significant chance of damaging a >7000psi peak overpressure-requiring SS-18 missile silo, which are about as well protected as the concrete and steel around most nuclear power reactor cores), your targetting policy will encourage the enemy to /aunch first, to save their missiles from being taken out! So using nuclear weapons to target other nuclear weapons in hardened silos (or hidden in the sea in submarines! ), apart from being extremely inefficient and costly in terms of your stockpile, is also a policy that provokes the risk of enemy "launch on warning" crisis instability because you are, if "successful", removing the enemy's protected second strike retaliation capability, and once the second strike option is gone, they are pushed back into the old first-strike aka launch-on-warning policy, which is extremely dangerous if their radar operators mistake some third party's missile testing for a launch against them, etc., etc. So the obsessive "disarmament fantasy" of only using nuclear weapons to try to deter other nuclear weapons in silos by targeting them, is a dangerous illusion that provokes crisis instability and risks an accidental nuclear war, in addition to being an exceptionally ineffective deterrent! All you do with that delusion is to deter the enemy from a second-strike policy, and force the enemy into a dangerous first-strike/launch on warning policy! If you can knock out the enemy warheads in their silos, the enemy will simply ensure that there is a very high probability that their missiles have been launched out of their silos before your warheads arrive, so you will be uselessly destroying EMPTY missiles silos! (your warheads take 25 minutes to arrive for an ICBM between continents, and 10 minutes for a back door attack of an SLBM launched from a submarine; less time is required for a Russian sub to hit NY or LA because they are beside oceans, unlike Moscow and
most Russian targets that are well inland!).
(3) In any case, how do you target enemy SLBMs in submarines hidden at sea? Similarly, the most numerous Russian ICBM in their stockpile is the mobile SS-27 Mod 2/RS-24, of which they have 135 missiles on 16-wheeled mobile launch vehicles which can move around, with 4 separate MIRV nuclear megaton warheads per missile and a range of 11,000 km. How do you target them as they move around during a crisis situation? They can easily move position enough to survive an nuclear warhead in the US stockpile during the 25 minutes while your missiles are on the way to hit them in a crisis situation, so you are literally trying to hit a moving target - do you really believe America will be able to reprogram the target locations for ICBM warheads in flight as they are moving? The whole idea would be amusing if it wasn't so tragic (there was an effort to create a warhead which could track its moving target and adjust its trajectory accordingly, the MARV - Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle - the only known Western MARV was the Pershing II warhead, which disarmed as part of the INF treaty to appease Russia/pro-disarmament politicians in the West). So the whole idea of using nuclear weapons
to hit enemy nuclear weapons before they are launched is crazy and dangerous. It's no joke that all the disarmament propaganda claims
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falsely that nuclear weapons have only the purpose of targetting other nuclear weapons in silos. That policy is dangerous, because it just encourages the enemy to get the weapons out of their silos before your weapons can arrive, so you are not deterring the enemy to launch their weapons, but forcing them to launch on warning, a lunatic policy! Nuclear weapons are only effective in a counterforce operation against armies on the move, either as a deterrent or to physically stop invasions without collateral damage by air burst enhanced neutron weapons. The only real use of nuclear weapons should be, as Oppenheimer said, as a tactical threat to stop the military invasions and
attacks that triggered two world wars.
Nuclear weapons are exceptionally good at deterring (or stopping) armies on the move! Not so if they are dispersed in defensive positions like hasty earth covered emergency civil defense shelters that resist 40 psi peak overpressure and give a protection factor of 200 or more against radiation; but the point is that they deter enemy military offensives and once the enemy has crossed your border you are within your rights to stop them; the credible threat will prevent invasions this way, ending world war. (Nuclear weapons are also effective at destroying enemy nuclear weapons in flight, e.g. the 2 kt W66 neutron warhead in the American Sprint ABM missile could melt down the fissile material in Russian nuclear warheads in flight in the atmosphere, and the 5 Mt W71 x-ray warhead of the Spartan ABM missile would ablate, deflect and destroy Russian warheads in space; they also knock down trees to create demilitarised zones in jungle warfare
which enable easy identification of insurgents entering those zones for attacks.)
$S-23 warhead
Ly
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—"
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Boris V. Litvinov showing Putin th world's smallest diameter (152.4mm) 2.5 kt artillery shell (above), and a 99.85% clean thermonuclear bomb
(above right and right), 30 March 2000.
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138
TRANSLATION OF EXTRACT FROM PAGE 138:
Specialists of the Other Nuclear Center - VNIITF - initially suggested using solid lithium deuterides with a small addition of tritium (for seed) when creating "clean" JAVA for external explosions However, in 1963, new ideas emerged. So, theoretical physicists of VNIITFE.N. Avrorin, E.!. Zababakhin, L.P. Feoktistov, A.K. Khlebnikov, A.A. Bunatyan and others. they offered to conduct a physical experiment in which to "ignite"* a large amount of tritium and data-
* Deutons, deuterons are different names of deuterium nuclei.
138
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139
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
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ABOVE: TRANSL AS PROVED IN A 6°
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The power of gz epicenter of an at
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ABOVE: Russian nuclear weaponeer Boris Vasilyevich Litvinov explaining how the world's smallest diameter nuclear artillery shell and allegedly cleanest thermonuclear weapon work to President Putin on 30 March 2000, during his visit to VNIITF at Snezhinsk, Russia. (President Putin wrote on his filmed entry on the Visitor's Book at VNIITF Snezhinsk - screen print of the entry is included later below in Russian - "The biggest danger facing Russia and the whole world is the violation of the balance of power at the cost of huge efforts and sacrifices to the Soviet. The Union managed to achieve a balance of great merit in this, due to your team together. We are obliged not only to maintain the existing achievements but also to achieve new frontiers relying on the talent and courage of our scientists. With hope and love, Vladimir Vladimirovich, March 31, 2000". This is from the film the lab put out in 2005, and we include a selection of stills from it. We're not as yet entirely sure of the reason for the possible discrepancy in dates of Putin's visit, 30 and 31 March 2000, from different sources. It is obviously possible Putin stayed overnight, arriving on 30 March 2000, and signed the visitor's book
when leaving the next day. Peace through credible war deterrence:
The worthless Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed by Russia, UK and Ukraine on 5 December 1994 led the way to the removal of the war-preventing nuclear deterrent from Ukraine: the liars claimed like the 1930s Nazis that signatures on paper would guarantee survival, not deterrence. OK, you edit a TV show or paper, and you think this is not relevant to today's problems faced by the person in the street unless Putin actually presses the button. You're a liar if you claim this. Paying higher energy prices? It's due to nuclear disarmament liars allowing Putin to start the war, cutting energy supplies to Europe, driving up prices. Like the disarmament of the UK up to 1935 (and slower rearmament thereafter, to avoid provoking a tantrum from Nazis, in the name of "peaceful coexistence" with state terrorism and racism), Ukraine's nuclear disarmament from 1994-8 guaranteed war, not peace; it gave the green card to the supporter of enemy disarmament, Russia. Nazis in the 1930s pushed for Western disarmament in the name of "peaceful" gas chamber genocide and "peaceful" invasions without opposition (because their enemies had disarmed), just as the thugs do today. As you'll see below in this post, this is not "news". It's the regular, repeating, trick used by bankrupt dictatorships to start world wars: get your enemies to disarm then invade neighbours with impunity! They don't think they can be ever "proved lying evil warmongers by humble yours truly" because they will just keep parroting the lie that if Ukraine had nuclear weapons, there would have been a nuclear war between Ukraine-Russia, not peace: HEY GUYS COUNTRIES WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS HAVEN'T HAD NUCLEAR WARS YET! HISTORY SHOWS THE ONLY COUNTRY TO HAVE BEEN ATTACKED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS (AUGUST 1945) DID N-O-T HAVE ANY
SEE ALL THE SECRET FACTS THAT THE "SECRECY-OPPOSED" BLOGGERS REFUSE TO TELL YOU IN THE NAME OF THEIR EFFORTS TO START A NUCLEAR WAR:
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@ fas.org/blogs/security/2020/01/w76-2deployed/ Federation of AMerican
Scientists Blogs Publications Get Inv
ogs > Strategic Security > US Deploys New Low-Yield Nuclear Submarine Warhead
US Deploys New Low-Yield Nuclear Submari
By Hans Kristensen - January 29, 2020
By William M. Arkin* and Hans M. Kristensen
The authors of the NPR also saw the dilemma of suggesting a more usable weapon. They tht intended to enable, nor does it enable, ‘nuclear war-fighting.’ Nor will it lower the nuclear thr yield nuclear weapons lower the threshold making nuclear use more likely, U.S. low-yield wez and make nuclear use less likely. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy John Rood even told re stabilizing” and in no way supports U.S. early use of nuclear weapons, even though the Nucle warhead was needed for “prompt response” strike options against Russian early use of nucle.
How FAS-ism in America supports fucking shit nuclear dictators ("morally equi
(It should be noted that we're not "trying to be controversial" but just trying to revert politicians to the saner nuclear situation that
existed during the Cuban missiles crisis when OVERWHELMING SUPERIORITY enabled a safer resolution than the American
FASi:
sts William M. Arkin and Hans M. Kristensen in their 2020 paper "US Deploys New Low-Yield Nuclear Submarine Warhead"
which sneered ignorantly and with evil warmongering maliciousness to encourage Putin to murder kids in Ukraine (they should be
kicked out of the status of "experts" since they are provably malign charlatans like the "Glasstone/Nukemap" liar in the populist
Marx-media), at the East-West moral asymmetry of Putin-Trump (like the disproved liar Hans Bethe who quoted Brezhnev to disprove
Reagan's evil empire speech etc): "... while Russian low-yield nuclear weapons lower the threshold making nuclear use more likely,
US.
low-yield weapons instead “raise the nuclear threshold” and make nuclear use less likely." - nuclear war FAS-ist fans sneering at
the West-East moral asymmetry in 2020, https://fas.org/blogs/security/2020/01/w76-2deployed/ We'll go into the details later on, below.
But if we were trying to be "controversial" we'd recommend implementing ABM in Western cities to enhance credible deterrence, or
even
ABO
a first strike to disarm the aggressor and end the war - whoops - should have typed what FAS-ists call "special military ops"!)
VE: from 1992-8, Russia pushed for Ukraine (which has excellent nuclear competence, having Europe's largest nuclear power station,
which could have been used to irradiate lithium to produce trittum for independent maintenance of nuclear warheads), to disarm its
extensive nuclear warheads using its Cold War traditional Russian supported hypocritical "peace through nuclear disarmament"
prop
aganda movements in the Western media and Western politics (including the current US president) and in 1994 signed a
peace guarantee to protect Ukraine's borders, with the UK and USA. Many of us were worried that this was a recipe for a future
world war should Russia's attempt at reform fail, leading to a decision to rebuild the USSR starting with the biggest component outside
Russia, i.e. Ukraine. At the same time, Boris Yeltsin and the Russian nuclear labs were producing a new generation of tactical
nuclear weapons to counter and cancel US conventional weapons, according to a secret-classified 2000 CIA report (linked here).
"During Putin's mobilization announcement, he[Putin] also threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, baselessly accused Western
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Novosti news: January 1992 Ukrainian nuclear warhead disarmament begins to ensure the peace of Ukraine |
countries of provoking him with "nuclear blackmail," and said his remarks weren't a bluff. Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal,
equipped with both tactical nuclear weapons as well as strategic nuclear weapons, which would be used against cities. "Russians that I keep in touch within Russia are convinced he's going to go nuclear," [ex-CIA agent] Baer told CNN. "I don't know how well-connected they are, but this threat — it was a threat initially — but the more trouble he's in, the more likely he's going to use nuclear weapons"." - Business Insider, 27 September 2022, Ex-CIA officer says Putin is ‘completely cornered' and the chances of his using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine are increasing ‘by the day’. "The US and its allies would eradicate Russia’s military troops in Ukraine and sink its Black Sea fleet if Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons, said former CIA director David Petraeus." - US would destroy Russia’s entire army if Putin use nukes in Ukraine, says former CIA director, The Independent, 3 October 2022. Nobody believes Petraeus because Putin has already made clear he will start start off with a Fourth Protocol style false-flag (contrived) nuclear attack on a Russian supply dump or whatever in Ukraine, pretend that is an enemy attack, and use that as a basis to "retaliate" using nuclear weapons. This is actually a very old diplomatic "fog of war" tactic, which President Kennedy's brother Robert referred to as "sinking the Maine again", in a taped discussion on 16 October 1962, when he considered it during the Cuban Missiles Crisis as a possible false-flag "justification" for invading Cuba to remove those Russian nuclear weapons. (The USS Maine was sunk, supposedly by a Cuban
mine, in Havana Harbor on February 15, 1898, and was used to "justify" the American war with Spain in April.) As a pretext for war, this
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. doesn't matter a dime from the perspective of whether the West believes it. It's just about creating an iota of doubt to enable it to violate agreements. Similarly, Russia has never admitted the lethal attacks with Po-210 (UK, 2006) or Novichok (UK, 2018). It's not about whether the West believes any of it. It's purely about Russian bureaucracy. The more evil there is, the more fake justification. (The Nazis
were also obsessed with generating fake justifications by diplomatic bureaucracy to excuse genocide and invasions; this always seems to
be about trying to go down in history as holier-than-holy.)
“A boy from the Moscov social cataclysms of th quarter of a century - fri leader of the second (in center of our country. B virtually unknown. ... su were a dozen, made up missile forces. One - in Kostroma, the third - un the "Scalpel" under the ten warheads of individ 550 kilotons in TNT equ - 5.5 megatons. We are missiles were aiming ai powder.”
- https://en.topwar.ru/10 skalpel.html
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Translation from Russian to English
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
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Yu. N. Babayev was l and thermonuclear charg Trutnev, he formed a new thermonuclear charges v the experimental testing « successfully completed.
This work was prece: the physical justification < processes, which were s development of new prc creation of a new directi charges in 1959, Yu. N. B Prize laureate.
B 1961-1962 Yuri N developed new, more advi are still in service with the development of a number characteristics, Yu. N. B: Socialist Labor in 1962 wi
medal "Sickle and Mopot of Doctor of Technical Sci member of the USSR Acac Under the leadersh and thermonuclear charg: subsequent years to equif of the USSR. He repeatedly |
landfills of the Ministry of Defi the development of charges is
ABOVE: useful entry about Babaev's design work on Russian thermonuclear weapons in the 2005 Russian book, Tepou aromuoro
mpoekta (Heroes of the atomic project), with side by side Russian and English text translation (since this is important to establish
as hard fact beyond any doubt, for the record): "In 1961-1962, Yuri Nikolaevich (Babaevy) and his colleagues developed new, more
advanced charges. Most of these charges are still in service with the Russian Army. For his participation in the development of a
number of thermonuclear charges with high specific characteristics, Yu. N. Babayev was awarded the title of Hero of Socialist
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Mo unuunatuee tO. H. Babaesa uv tO. A. TpytHeea uv nog ux pyKoGop- creom 6O BHUUS® O6binu pagpa6otaHbl TepMOAAEPHLIG ZapAgbI gna HAPOAHOXOSAVCTBEHHbIX LIONCM — BapAQbl C MVHYMANbHOM OCKONOYHON pagnoakrueHocrbio. HeEKoTOpbIO U3 MUX ObINY NPVMEHEHbI ANA COsAaHUA BOAOXPAaHMNUNW, TAWEHNA ragOBbIx MakenoG, VHTEHCHuKauUMN rasoBbIx u HEMTAHbIX MECTOPOXNCHUM VT. fA.
Bonbwaa Teoperuyeckan padota Obina npoBeReHa uM NO UCNONbIO- BAHUIO AMEPHbIX B3pbIGOB ANA HapaboTKu AeCNAWMXCA MaTepuanos.
QanbHenwum HanpaeneHvem paoot 10. H. Babaesa Obino KopeHHoe YCOCEPWEHCTEOGAHUNe AMEPHbIx sapaAQgOe — AeOMHON NoAxXOA. Boina paspa- 6OoraHa TeOpuA, YCOBEPWEHCTeOBAHbI MeTOAbI pacHera uv T.f. Takue Tep- MOALEPHbIG BapAgbI Ovinuv Oonee npoctbi NO KOHOTPyKUMM NM TeXxHONOMMU verorosneHua. Oxu ObiINv uCcNbITaHbI, HO padotanu He Bcerga cTaOuNbHO VU Tpe6oseanu poeogKu, HO lOpum Huxonaeeuy He yonen sroro cpenatb.
lO. H. Ba6ses BHeC KONOCCaNnbHbIM BKNAA B PaseuTUue TeOopernuec- KUX MOYMeEPHbIX NporpamM, 4TO CNocOobcreoBano coOsAaHNKH maTemaru- yweckoro annapata. Ero Q@ATONbHOCTb 6bINa MOUIHbIM CrumMynomM ANA pas- BUTMUA PACHeTOB CNOXHEMWMX MaTeMaTMYeCKUX sanay U usnyecKux npoueccos. OX MHOrO paboTaNn B CMexHbIX OONacTAx. SaHumanca nagep- HOM TOMATUKON: HAKAYKOUN NABEPOB OT AMEPHOFO BapPbiba. VinTepecoeanca OH w Ouonoruew, BNUAHVeM PaguvauMu Ha UeNoBeEKa HM OKPYxAalOUlyio cpeny. Boinu y Hero uv NpeANoOXRKeHUA NO BbIBEACHUIO B KOCMOC annapaTos BO@CHHOFO HASHAYCHHA.
tO. H. Ba6aee Beipactrun Gonbwylo nneAAy MONOAbIX yYeHbIxX, KANQNaa- TOB UW AOKTOPOS Ha@YK, KOTOPbIC CerOoMHA YCNEWHO NpopAONMxKaloT ero geno.
B 2000 r. no saeepweHuu OgHOuW us paspaboTOK, B KOTOpONM lOpuA Hukonaeeny NpvnvMan HeENOCPeACTBEHHOe yyacTue, emMy OviINna npucyx- fAeHa TocynapctreeHHaa npemua P® (nocmepTHo). OH HarpaxKnoOH ABYMA OpmaeHamy JleHvHa, OpMeHOM Tpygosoro KpacHoro SHaMeHY, MeManbio “Sa Tpygoeyio qo6necte”.
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
At the initiative of Y their leadership , thern economic chains were with minimal scoping ra used to create reservoir: gas and oil fields, etc.
A lot of theoretical ' nuclear explosions for t
The further directio
improvement of nuclear was developed. calculal
thermonuclear charges y
technology . They were t required fine-tuning, bul
Yu. N. Babaev ma of theoretical deumeric of a mathematical appa! the development of cz problems and physical was engaged in laser st He was also intereste: and the environment. H: vehicles into space.
Yu. N. Babayev has and doctors of sciences
In 2000, upon com Yuri Nikolayevich took a of the Russian Federati Orders of Lenin, the O! “For Labor Valor".
Labor in 1962 with the award of the Order of Lenin... Under the leadership of Yu. N. Babayev, new nuclear and thermonuclear
charges of various values were developed in subsequent years to equip most branches of the Armed forces of the USSR. ... The further
direction of Yu. N. Babayav's work was the radical improvement of nuclear charges - a dual approach. ... Such thermonuclear charges
were simpler in design and manufacturing technology." . (Tip: to translate Russian to English from a low quality image scan, upscale the
image of the text with Zyro, and then translate the result using Yandex translate.)
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EBPEHHA ABPOPHH 553 EVGENY AVRORIN EERE a
Bnok 6atape ana TBepAOOKCHMAHOrO TONNMBHOrO 3snemMeHTa B
MX MeMbUINIe NO epanieltsio c coTpyyumKapi JIAHJI 11 JULI noamonaio- The peak is smaller i CTH cnsigeit c SApYO@KIUIDIMU ChelUWIICTAaMH. possible connections
Moknasand oberminnocrs wigyioutan ocodemiocm crpyicn pb PO*ALI, The effectiveness v nompaosneneiuil KkoTOpHIX OGpasyiores He No pewmaemoll auiue, ano cneui- structure, the units of w muon. Tak, pee Musiat-reoperiat COOpAHnh! B OJUIOM NospABwieMuH, | am on specialisation
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first domestic _ intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) R-7. The charge had a capacity of 3 megatons of TNT 4 equivalent. The length 4) of the rocket is 31.4 m. The range of the rocket was 8500 km. It launched Sputnik 1957 and the Vostok-1 _ spacecraft piloted by Gagarin in 1961.
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
The thermonuclear warhead | ICBM was tested in 1962 witl range of the missile was 12,(
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ano lOO
MANN GD sw GCOOS SOOMU LL
Coo
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eel ;
peromich But
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Nuclear Weapon Museum in Snowtown aka Snezhinsk at Ch
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_ a
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Russian 370 kg thermonuclear 1st Russian MIRV for SLBM submarine | warhead for missiles, put into missiles, put into service in 1974: us service in 1978. mass is 170 kg, a small-sized thermonuclear charge allows placing three warheads on one launch vehicle
1st ever Russian
MIRV warhead, 210 kg each; first put into service in 1978.
Monoblock warhead of the Monoblock warhead for use against first megaton range missile for ships and shore bases, 690 kg, 1975 submarines, 650 kg, year 1974
RIGHT: 1961 Russian megaton ICBM warhead Length 189.3 cm,
midsection z diameter 130 cm, 40 kt tactical nuclear warhead, 1962: first mass-produced Russian mass 736 kg
1960: length 287 cm, midsection ee eee ee en strategic thermonuclear weapon
diameter 88 cm, mass 950 kg (Much heavier than American designs for such a low yield!)
z Pw ss ~ Oe AS he SS ee ae Ce aces ae iy © ek
aa Tee
1963 deployed Russian megaton Russian 50 megaton bomb, 30 tons, SLBM warhead, length 230 cm, 2x8m size, tested at half power on diameter 130.4 cm. Mass 1144 kg. December 24, 1962, Novaya Zemlya.
First ever Russian 40 kt nuclear warhead for an intermediate-range ballistic missile, 1200 km range, withdrawn from service 1960.
21 fa
First ever Russian thermonuclear warhead for an intercontinental ballistic missile, 3 megatons yield, 8500 km range, in operation 1960 to 1966.
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See ee ee OO eS
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Slock 1953 H-bomb (Teller's 1947 ternally-boosted implosion bomb) —_—
1
i aL : 1.
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— -
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a
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— (cou ' Fuchs, David Greenglass, et al.)
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iy € t
Academician Y.B. Khariton at the Russian Nuclear Center museum, near the RDS-1 bomb case
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F
ABOVE: the precise nature of Putin's nuclear threat, photos from both the Russian nuclear weapons labs museums (older stuff is in Sarov, but the latest Russian very small MIRV warheads whose shapes reveal design data are in the RFNC-VNIITF Museum at Snezhinsk including the pink painted warheads which are not in the Sarov collection). The first two-stage 1.6 megaton yield Russian thermonuclear weapon, tested in 1955, RDS-37, had a spherical secondary (fusion) stage which required isotropic compression (unlike early American cylindrical designs). The Russian design omitted the plastic foam used to fill the radiation channels in the early UK two stage warheads (and modern W87 and W88 etc.) to deliver x-rays isotropically to the secondary stage. Instead, the Russian design used precise geometric mirroring of x-rays by a large (1.5m diameter) ellipsoidal (prolate spheroid) shaped case, with the fission primary at one focus and the secondary stage at the other (legendary Russian thermonuclear warhead designer Yuri Trutnev has confirmed this use of a lead lined case, a reasonably effective x-ray mirror - it isn't a perfect mirror since the "reflection" is accompanied by a lot of absorption of radiation - in the RDS-37 and later designs, with low-density material merely used as an x-ray absorber as a surface covering on the spherical secondary charge and not as a radiation channel filler - as discussed later in this post, below). This design - without plastic foam filling the radiation channel - was first used by America a year later, as the Egg device tested during Operation Redwing shot Huron (discussed and illustrated later in this post). It has its advantages: faster and more efficient compression with less risk of neutron pre-
initiation of fissile materials in the secondary stage, since x-rays are slowed down by plastic foam, but travel faster than neutrons if simply
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reflected from the case. Therefore, when using the outer case as an x-ray radiation mirror, the speed of delivery of the x-rays to the
secondary (to compress it) is faster than the speed that neutrons can arrive, so you don't need a neutron interstage barrier the way you do for devices employing a plastic foam filling, which slows down the x-rays delivery time and allows more neutron fission in the secondary
to occur before full compression by x-rays.
Anything large in the case which creates x-ray "shadow" zones increases anisotropy of x-ray delivery to the secondary stage. This problem doesn't exist for the early American cylindrical stages, where the compression geometry is simply axial symmetry, i.e. radial compression in 2, not 3 dimensions. (To double the density of the secondary, radial compression of a cylinder requires a 29.3% reduction in radius, compared to just a 20.6% reduction of radius for spherical compression to achieve similar doubling of density.) But this outer case x-ray mirroring also has the disadvantage that the overall diameter of the outer radiation reflecting case must be /arge in comparison to the diameter of the spherical secondary charge (at least several times larger), or you do not get a sufficiently isotropic compression of the secondary stage (i.e. similar compression from all directions), because if the case is too small, the finite size of the secondary stage itself blocks reflected radiation from hitting it on the opposite side to that in proximity to the primary stage, which reduces compression, efficiency, and yield. This is just a simple shadowing problem that you can see in a room lit by daylight from a window. If you place a
large object in front of the window, it creates a shadow behind it, so it is not isotropically illuminated (i.e. lit equally on all sides). If you
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place a smaller object in front of the window rather than a huge object, this shadowing problem is reduced or even eliminated because enough light can get into the room around the object, to be reflected back on the far side of that object by the walls of the room - particularly if you have mirrors on the walls - since the mirrors can then reflect light back so that the object is illuminated more uniformly on all sides (isotropic exposure, as opposed to anisotropic - unequal - exposure of all sides; for a diagram illustrating a suppressed example of the effects of a certain kind of fascinating anisotropic radiation exposure, please - for example - see my very
brief 1-page long PDF paper linked here!).
ABOVE: illustration of Anisotropic (unequal from all directions) x-rays on 2nd stage: __ ‘he problem of the anisotropic x-ray exposure of the secondary stage and some of its possible solutions, namely fill the case with foam to slow down and diffuse the x- rays to a uniform concentration everywhere in the case (a terrible idea for several reasons, e.g. it reduces recoil ablative impulse, allows neutrons time to arrive and pre-
detonate any fissile
Second stage is not uniformly compressed due to x-ray shadow on side spent eee seecncaty
furthest from primary stage. Solutions: (1) put a partial shield between the stage, and it means the two stages to try to "level up" the x-ray exposure on each side, (2) use foam to outer case has to hold the slow down and diffuse the x-rays to a uniform concentration everywhere in the whole thing together for
case (even on the far side), (3) use a huge case that focusses x-rays uniformly. longer while the fusion
burn hopefully starts, but this is nevertheless still used in Western devices), make the case huge so you can reflect x-rays more uniformly on to the far end (right ride above) of the secondary stage, use two primaries - one on each side of the secondary stage - as Russia does still, or design an "interstage" shield to go between the two stages above to try to even-up the exposure on each side of the secondary stage (but be careful to design it well, or you will over-shield the secondary and it won't get compressed at all!). The 1958-tested double primary Russian solution has the
genius that easy to design: you don't need to bother to make careful design calculations at all!
Use of foam in modern warheads to minimise outer case size for spherical secondaries
1.6mt RDS-37, 1955: 250kt Egg (Huron), 1956: Megaton Grapple’s
© ©
Case/charge Case/charge diameter ratio diameter ratio is large (3-5) is large (3-5)
© ©
X-ray mirroring
by casing Modern warhead Russian 1955 test American 1956 test UK 1957-58 tests using foam filling Both efficient but too big for ICBM, due to case Foam allows isotropic x-ray compression mirroring for isotropic compression; not foam with a SMALL ratio of case/charge diameter!
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RDS-37: first two-stage Russian H-bomb, 1955
2
RDS.-37 - nttpesiwww.youtube.comwatch?v=Mn03
Russian Military internet site:
http://militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-79
6.htm! “Design - the product is made in the body of a specially designed aerial bomb, similar to the body of the RDS-6s / RDS-6SD bomb.”
5.6 tons, 1.5m diam, 6.5m long
RDS-37 being dropped, 22 Nov 1955
Nice iden for a concave dish xray focussing device. However, in 1955 Russia would have been unable able to compute this complexity
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ABOVE: two versions of the RDS-37 first Russian nuclear weapons design. The first shows RDS-37 as the simple prolate spheroid
elliptical system for x-ray mirroring, fitted into an RDS-6 case as shown on a globalsecurity.org page (the RDS-6 case was used for the earlier 1953 400 kt Alarm Clock externally boosted device). Actual film from the 22 November 1955 test of RDS-37 show a longer bomb, probably with an added parachute to slow the bomb down while the delivery aircraft escapes (the 1953 RDS-6 test, unlike RDS-37 in 1955, didn't need a parachute, as it was a near surface burst). The second illustration is from a Russian language source (Military Russia, bomGa c 3apsjjom PJ[C-37) showing a slightly different variation in which there is a very clever concave shield used between primary and secondary stages to try to achieve uniform (isotropic) irradiation of the spherical secondary stage with x- rays. The source given is not a declassified report but a Russian youtube video. The problem is that this convoluted design, while simple to draw, is very complicated to design in terms of calculating the sizes and shapes of the various elements for optimum performance, requiring 2- or 3-d simulations by computers unavailable at the time, even in America. It is more likely to be the basis of the 500kt two- stage single primary devices developed in 1958 and used in the 50mt Tsar Bomba (discussed and illustrated later) than the first 1955 test of a two-stage device. The diffulties with the isotropic compression of spherical devices was a key reason why early American bombs had cylindrical secondaries with just radial compression not isotropic compression; they are far more straightforward for design calculations, because you don't have to worry about how to get radiation to the far side of a sphere! In other words, you don't need 3-d calculations. The simpler prolate spheroid case, with primary and secondaries at the two elliptical focii, is easier to analyze mathematically without a computer using straightforward geometrical considerations (cf. Winterberg's 1981 book Physical principles of thermonuclear explosive devices, Fig. 4 on page 28 and discussion of x-ray mirrors on page 32, as shown later in this post), and thus more likely what was tested in 1955. This is because there is less to go wrong, and it is easier therefore to get a definite result if the design has an error; whereas, if you test a design with Jots of innovations, and it fails, you learn nothing because you don't know which of the many factors caused the failure (it is not even the case that you know that one thing has gone wrong, which can be discovered by elimination after many changes and tests, because there could be several different design failure causes all working together, in a radical product with lots of innovation!). The same youtuber also has a video of the design of the 50Mt Tsar bomba which is also incorrect, showing a more modern device with a single primary stage (completely debunked below in this post, since that S0mt bomb was provably set off by two 500 kt thermonuclear charges). In both designs above, the overall bomb case diameter is at least three times the diameter of the secondary charge, which is
necessary to prevent an x-ray shadow on the side of the secondary furthest from the primary stage, resulting in anisotropic compression.
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SECOND FIRST SECONDARY SECONDARY THERMONUCLEAR
OLT
SECOND FIRST INTERSTAGE INTERSTAGE
INTERSTAGES IN THIS DESIGN AVERT THE ANISOTROPIC COMPRESSION OF SPHERICAL ST,
Double secondary design tested by UK during Operation Grapple Z3 (800 kt) on 11 September
ABOVE: cartoon-style (non-blueprint) sketch of the problems of designing the interstage to stop neutrons from the primary stage from pre-detonating and deforming the fissile U235 (oralloy) in the secondary stage, while x-rays are diffusing (relatively slowly, compared to (Primary has 4.5" small axis diameter) X-rays in a vacuum) through the foam
W88 schematic. 475kt. Built in 1980s, taking 14 nuclear tests in Nevada.
shown in blue, to allow isotropic Cares 2 eer NT oo sincsciou of the secondary stage. This requires detailed 3-d computer simulations and nuclear tests for verification, and is very difficult design engineering to get right. Traditionally, the light weight interstage has been beryllium, a toxic brittle material, for its transparency to x-rays and opaqueness to neutrons, while not being excessively heavy for a missile payload. There has been a recent effort to replace the toxic, brittle beryllium interstages with safer, more durable interstages made of alternatives like boron, cadmium and lithium. (For aircraft delivery, where weight is less crucial than for missile warheads, U238 can be used as the neutron shield. But if weight is not an issue, you could simply have a clean secondary stage, comprising of Li6D and lead or tungsten pusher, without any fissile material, so then you don't need a neutron shield interstage!) But the more fissile oralloy there is in the secondary stage of a W88 warhead, the closer it is to criticality, so the greater the complexity of the design to keep primary stage neutrons from predetonating it, while still allowing sufficient channelling of x-rays. This is a complex design trade-off to get right, requiring sometimes multiple nuclear tests and re-designs, which explains why detailed data is still classified secret. (Not shown in the sketch is a thick neutron shield cylinder enclosing the entire secondary stage to reduce its vulnerability to predetonation by neutrons from defensive nuclear warheads from the Russian ABM system. When such a U238 neutron shield shell is shown in diagrams, it is usually misinterpreted as some sort of tamper or reflector to help the reaction! In addition, the primary and secondary stages are simplified. Fissile material would have a hollow core supplied with D+T boost gas from an external flask, prior to detonation. There is also the external x- box with capacitors that must be charged up with HV from a battery powered inverter prior to detonation, supplying large parallel current pulses to detonators and neutron initiator tubes. These are also safety features, helping to ensure that several stages of preparation must be
undertaken in order to achieve a full-yield detonation, so the weapon is relatively safe in an accidental fire or impact.)
One of the biggest secrets of thermonuclear weapons became clear from the "clean" H-bomb research at Operation Redwing in 1956; the Zuni (15% fission, 3.53mt total yield) and Tewa (87% fission, 5.01 mt total yield) were basically identical designs, but U238 in the Tewa
device was replaced with lead in Zuni, and Zuni was topped up with extra liéd to try to compensate. As the results showed, although
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fusion is on paper more efficient than fission, in reality it was not possible in that design to get as much yield out of the cleaner device. In other words, in the dirty design, the fusion stage is just used as an external boosting tool to release high energy neutrons to fission U238, which produces most of the yield. An exception to this is the more efficient pusherless pulse-shaped isentropic compression system tested in the Ripple II device in 1962, discussed later, where it is claimed by its designer Nickolls that a higher efficiency of thermonuclear burn was achieved than in pusher devices (this isn't reflected in the overall yield/mass ratio of the entire device, which was just a prototype; we're talking just about the yield/mass ratio of the fusion capsule in Ripple II, not the entire prototype bomb whose mass is not relevant to
a final warhead system).
"To form the direction of energy transfer, at the suggestion of A. D. Sakharov, the [1.6mt RDS-37] primary and secondary modules were
enclosed in a single shell, which had a good quality for reflecting X-rays, and measures were provided inside the charge to facilitate the transfer of X-rays in the right direction. Yu. A. Trutnev in the course of this work proposed a method for concentrating the energy of X-ray radiation in material pressure [a low density x-ray absorbing layer around the secondary stage, discussed later in this post with quotations from Trutnev himself about it], which made it possible to effectively carry out radiation implosion. During this development, he also proposed a method that determined the predictability of the configuration of channels for the transfer of x-rays, which later found wide application in two-stage thermonuclear charges. ... In this case, the problem of ensuring spherically symmetric compression of the secondary module was radically solved, since the time of “symmetrization” of energy around the secondary module was much shorter than the compression time of this module. ... The fact is that the overall mass parameters of the RDS-37 charge and the first samples of thermonuclear charges of the USSR that followed it and the first thermonuclear charges of the USA are fundamentally different. The
characteristic value of the ratio of length to diameter of the first thermonuclear charges of the USSR is less than 2, and for the first
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thermonuclear charges of the USA it is 3.2-4.8.This difference indicates fundamental differences in the structure of the secondary modules of the first thermonuclear charges of the USSR and the USA. The thermonuclear charge modules of the USA had a cylindrical configuration, while the thermonuclear charge modules of the USSR had a spherical configuration." - I. A. Andryushin, A. K. Chernyshev, and Yu. A. Yudin, Creation of the first samples of thermonuclear weapons, http://wsyachina.narod.ru/history/coretaming 5.html (deleted site, but available now on Wayback Machine at
https://web.archive.org/web/20130515010737/http://wsyachina.narod.ru/history/coretaming_5.html).
In the sense the Russians I. A. Andryushin, A. K. Chernyshev, and Yu. A. Yudin (above quotation) argue, that America first tested thermonuclear weapons with cylindrical "pipe" secondaries whereas Russia was straight-in with the spherical secondaries now used in compact MIRV warheads, Russia seems to have been ahead in the 50s. The Russian design of 1955 was essentially duplicated by the American Egg design (Redwing-Huron) of 1956. But it was bulky because to get isotropic compression efficiently of a sphere using radiation mirroring from the inside of a prolate spheroid reflecting case, the case needs to be at least 3-5 times the diameter of the secondary stage (unlike getting isotropic compression from plastic foam, where you just need a few cm wide radiation channel!). So Russia wasn't ahead, unlike Britain which in 1957-8 successfully used spherical secondaries (like Russia), but with plastic foam in the radiation channel (unlike Russia) to make the secondary stage compression isotropic while reducing the outer case size to a minimum. If you just use the outer case as a mirror (as the Russians Ya. B. Zel’dovich, Yu. A. Trutnev, and A. D. Sakharov did very successfully with their 1.5m diameter RDS-37 in 1955, and the Americans did with their Egg device in the Redwing-Huron test of 1956), and don't instead use foam to fill the case to absorb and re-radiate x-rays isotropically, you will always need a REALLY HUGE DIAMETER outer bomb case for the geometry to work efficiently! This is due to the immutable mathematical laws of geometry. So although they were able to use a single primary stage with success in 1955, they had a huge problem with trying to miniaturise that design without going back to fission
bomb yields.
There were only three possible ways to change their design to get their huge 1955 H-bomb small enough physically to fit into the warhead of an ICBM: (1) change the shape of the secondary to the simpler to compress geometry of a cylinder, where you ignite the end closest to the primary stage and then an auto-catalytic self-burning wave is hopefully initiated (as used in the early 1952 American Ivy-Mike test), but the Russians had already investigated and discarded Teller's original Superbomb "pipe" (the Russian word for it); (2) fill the radiation channel with plastic foam to make the energy delivery isotropic to the secondary, but this is less efficient since the x-rays are delivered more slowly than by simple case reflection (through having to be repeatedly absorbed and re-radiated in a mathematical "drunkard's walk" going in all directions by the electrons in the foam), and this x-ray energy delivery delay also allows neutrons to arrive and partly melt down, expand and pre-detonate any fissile materials in the secondary stage (unless you have an efficient neutron shield or interstage between the primary and secondary stage, which is hard to design effectively without good electronic computers, which the Russians then lacked); or finally (3) use /inear-implosion of the final fusion stage, by using TWO primary stages, one on each side of the fusion stage, within a cylindrical casing, wired in a simple parallel circuit for simultaneous detonation. Linear implosion is never the most efficient solution, but it is necessary to get a very small diameter thermonuclear weapon for a ICBM warhead. So it turns out that the Russians use a very different approach to compact nuclear warheads than America and Britain. Yuri Trutnev in 2017 explained the details (this has now
been deleted from the Russian site):
"... Avraamy Zavenyagin ... said - take a thermonuclear charge, surround it with atomic charges, blow them up at the same time, they will squeeze it. ... This idea was later developed by our theorist Viktor Davidenko. In fact, he proposed a scheme for the so-called two-stage charge - a casing in which there were spatially separated atomic and thermonuclear units. The explosion energy of the primary atomic stage would be used to ignite thermonuclear reactions in the secondary stage. Our outstanding specialists Yakov Zel'dovich and Andrei Sakharov had great hopes for this scheme of so-called nuclear implosion. ... I did a lot of work on the theory of the efficiency of atomic charges. I knew that when they explode, a lot of energy comes out in the form of x-rays. And I began to think about how to make it so that the thermonuclear charge is overlaid with a light substance - "coating", these can be chemical elements with a low number, having very good thermal conductivity, and with the help of X-ray radiation from the explosion of the primary atomic charge "coating" heat up. At the same time, its substance would evaporate outward, towards the radiation, and as a result, as during the movement of a rocket, a reactive impulse would be created, directed into the secondary charge and creating the pressure necessary for effective compression of the thermonuclear "fuel". But how was it possible to ensure a uniform, symmetrical effect of radiation on the spherical surface of a thermonuclear charge with a "coating"? Here I am stuck. ... Zel'dovich proposed exactly how to direct X-rays, Sakharov showed that this radiation is not absorbed by the walls of the casing, but remains in it, and therefore a uniform effect on the surface of the thermonuclear unit can occur. And my idea is a "coating" of a light substance to transfer radiation to the
required pressure. ... | already had another idea in my head - a more advanced product based on a new principle for designing a
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thermonuclear charge. After testing the RDS-37, the next day in the evening I called my friend and colleague Yuri Nikolaevich Babaev to the bank of the Irtysh and said: "Yura, let's try to do just such a thing." And he agreed. We returned to Sarov and drew a charge diagram and proposed it. This product received an index of 49. I will not say what it is. Product 49 is similar to the RDS-37, but not in everything. They started laughing at us, this is all nonsense, nothing will work out for you. In short, they didn’t support us because they didn’t understand. ... We were supported by Igor Vasilyevich Kurchatov. The test of product 49 took place on the Day of the Soviet Army, February 23, 1958 at the test site on Novaya Zemlya. The success was very big. In 1958, several tests of products of different capacities based on the 49th charge took place. He went into a series, he was put on rockets, and this was already the basis of our country's thermonuclear weapons. ... I said to Khariton: "Yuli Borisovich, let's make a 100-megaton charge. Maybe then the West will understand that it would be pointless for them to increase their megatonnage further." He agreed. But here, for safety reasons, we also made a half- power charge, replacing the uranium-238 stage with lead. ... The Americans understood that they would not frighten us, but we would frighten them. And they lowered the power in their trials. We could have done more, but what's the point?" - Yuri Trutnev, The creation of nuclear weapons is a special kind of creativity, ria.ra/20171122/1509304656 22 November 2017 (this page has now been deleted, but is available on Wayback Machine at https://web.archive.org/web/20220429180233/https://ria.ru/20171122/1509304656.html)
To get small thermonuclear warheads for missiles, after successfully testing a compact linear implosion primary stage for nuclear artillery (detailed later in this post), at the suggestion of Yuri Trutnev, starting in 1958, the Russians began testing thermonuclear weapons having two compact primary stages, one on each side of a spherical or cylindrical thermonuclear charge, wired in parallel electrical circuit using large krytron vacuum tube switches to get simultaneous detonations and a more uniform compression of the secondary stage. This was because they lacked the computers America and Britain used to design smaller thermonuclear warheads where plastic foam was employed to deliver x-ray energy uniformly to a secondary charge from a single primary stage. Trutnev suggested replacing the two primary stages with two 500 kt thermonuclear weapons to achieve a 50 megaton clean test in 1961. But what is more important is that this whole
approach was continued by Russia with more practical weapons, under the leadership of Yuri Nikolaevich Babaev (1928-86):
"Yuri Nikolaevich Babaev became one of the main creators of the world's largest detonated bomb ("Tsar Bomba") with a capacity of 50 megatons, tested at the test site on Novaya Zemlya on October 30, 1961. ... In the future, the efforts of Yuri Nikolaevich Babaev focused on the fundamental improvement of thermonuclear charges, for which he developed the theory of "double
approach". - http://www.biblioatom.ru/founders/babaev_yuriy_nikolaevich/"
The use of two primary stages (or two whole thermonuclear devices, for higher yields) to compress a fusion capsule inside a narrow tube casing without plastic foam to make the radiation isotropic is like a linear implosion system for fusion charges: the central (main) fusion charge will be most compressed along the axis of the bomb than from the sides, so it can be elongated so that it becomes a sphere when compressed (below). This is avoided in US and UK weapons by the use of computer designed low density baffles of plastic foam to make the x-ray energy isotropically compress the secondary (the foam doesn't do the compression, the x-ray ablation of the secondary does it; the foam is merely used in modern Western designs to reduce anistropic compression of the secondary, missed out by the Russian
approach which uses two primary stages or two thermonuclear stages for larger devices, instead).
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"The A6027 charge was tested on October 30, 1961 at the Novaya Zemlya test site. ... The creation of nuclear weapons by the Soviet
Union, despite the hardships of the post-war period, has become an effective factor in deterring any aggressors from launching new global wars [the aggressor is Russia, fighting democracies in Georgia, Crimea, Syria and Ukraine, eh]. ... The young theoretical physicist Yu.A. Trutnev proposed the idea of creating a 100 Mt superbomb, which could frighten foreign skeptics who believed that Soviet nuclear scientists were significantly weaker than American ones [subservience and slavery to authority is always a weakness compared to free thinking trial-and-error based innovation for profit and to supply customers with the latest products they want and need; the backwardness of Russia in microelectronics for decades illustrates the failure of centralised control most clearly; free countries also have this problem but the people are generally better capable of overcoming the tyranny]. The idea was supported by Academicians A.D. Sakharov, Yu.B. Khariton and Ya.B. Zeldovich. The top leadership of the country, having agreed on the issue with scientists, decided to create and test super-powerful weapons. The final decision to resume nuclear testing and create a superbomb was made in July 1961, when the scientific leadership of KB-11 (VNIIEF) reported to N.S. Khrushchev on the possibility of developing a hydrogen bomb with a capacity of 100 million tons of TNT. ... [Copying the USA, which opened a second nuclear weapons lab, Lawrence Livermore, to challenge its first lab at Los Alamos...] In 1955, by decision of the Government, a second nuclear center was established - NII-1011 (RFNC-VNIITF) in Chelyabinsk-70 (now the city of Snezhinsk), where a third of the employees of KB-11 were transferred. ... After the adoption of the decree of the Government of the USSR on the resumption of testing of nuclear weapons in July 1961, KB-11 began emergency work on the development, theoretical justification and preparation for testing not only superbombs, but also a series of other nuclear weapons. Even before this decision, the theoretical physicists of KB-11 were distributed to develop "their" charges. Therefore, to develop a superbomb, it was decided to call Dr. Ph.D. Adamsky V.B., by connecting to it a theoretical physicist - a recent graduate of MEPHI Yu.N. Smirnov, as well as the initiators of the creation of the superbomb, Ph.D. Trutneva Yu.A. [center of photo below, in front of
bomb] and Ph.D. Babaeva Yu.N. Academician Sakharov A.D. took over the development leadership. ...
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"The situation was aggravated by the tight deadlines for the start of tests (09/01/1961), the lack of a
omputer park to carry out the proper number of alculations. I had to use all the computers of the Mathematical Institute of the USSR Academy of Sciences (mathematicians at KB-11 worked there at might and on weekends). And only on October 24 (6 days before the tests) was the final report on the design of the bomb and the theoretical justification completed. But even then A.D. Sakharov (already without a omputer) additionally worked out the necessary improvements. A large number of serious innovations ere applied in the design of the superbomb itself and its charge. A powerful thermonuclear charge was made according to the “bifilar” scheme: for radiation
implosion of the main thermonuclear unit, two thermonuclear charges were placed on both sides (front and back) to ensure synchronous (with a time difference of no more than 0.1 Ms) ignition of thermonuclear “fuel”. KB-25 (VNIIA) finalized a serial detonation automation unit for this charge. It seemed to A.D. Sakharov that the calculations carried out on a computer were not enough. 2 days before the product was sent to the test site at 8 pm, Sakharov came to the workshop, approached the product (the body of the bomb was open and access to the charge was provided from both sides). Andrei Dmitrievich looked inside, felt the construction, then sat down on a chair in the corner ... the academician drew a sketch, where it was proposed to install lead belts 60 mm thick from the side of the initiating charges on the inner conical surface of the charge body. | call the director of KB-11 B.G. Muzrukov at one in the morning: “What should I do, after 36 hours, sending?” Answer: "Do as Sakharov said!" At 6.00 in the morning, the designers draw “squirrels” in the shop and after 4 hours the lead belts are ready (from the memoirs of the head of the assembly shop of the KB-11 plant A.G. Ovsyannikov). After 40 years, when, on the instructions of the director and first deputy scientific director of VNITEF, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences IIkaev R.I. In the most powerful computer center in Russia, VNIIEF, the calculations for the three-dimensional problem "Mimosa" were checked, it was confirmed that the absence of these lead belts would lead to a significant distortion of the radiation implosion sphere and a decrease in the explosion power by ~ 80%. So the thought of the academician turned out to be much more perfect than computers available at that time. ... In the history of Russia, a certain pattern was noticed in the creation of hypertrophied samples of unique products: the Tsar Bell (which did not ring), the Tsar Cannon (which did not shoot) and, finally, the Tsar Bomba (which was blown up with some excess of the calculated power - 52.5 Mt). ... only about 2 percent of the energy of the explosion came from the fission reaction, the rest of the energy from the fusion reaction ... The creation and testing of the most powerful thermonuclear charge in the world with a capacity of 50 Mt served as an impetus for reducing the arms race throughout the world. And this is the great merit of our outstanding nuclear scientists. [In plainer words, Russia succeeded in starting the West on the road from nuclear superiority to arms control parity, allowing the dictatorship to survive longer before going bankrupt.|" - A.V. Veselovsky, honorary veteran of the RFNC-VNIIEF, head of the scientific and testing department (in 1956-2009), laureate of the USSR State Prize, http://www.proatom.ru/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=3364
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Yu. N. Smirnov, Academician
A fundamentally new approach was proposed by Yu.N. Babaev and Yu.A. Trutnev. It was a promising proposal in terms of dov density and what is called miniaturization. It was not about the very small sizes. But now the charges really became weapons: | certain carriers. The new charge was successfully tested on February 23, 1958. Within a year, on the basis of this idea, a rather various calibers was designed, including the smallest of them for that period.
Table 2. Heavy-duty nuclear explosions, USSR.
No. p / p (in brackets - the serial number of Explosion Conditions for the the test) date explosion
1(123) 10/23/61
2(130)
3(147)
6(219) 12/24/62 air 24200
Total capacity: > 136.9 Mt
In addition to six super-high power explosions ( £ > 10 Mt, Table 2 ) , the USSR conducted 22 megaton class air tests (1.5 Mt < carried out in the period 1955-1962 . All of them, with the exception of the explosion on November 22, 1955 near Semipalatinsk
Novaya Zemlya test site. SOURCE: http://wsyachina.narod.ru/history/testing_ground_213.html (BEFORE TH/
"After the end of the moratorium in 1961, they returned to the task of creating a superbomb, but now it was a thermonuclear charge with an energy release of 100 Mt, which was to be placed in an aerial bomb developed according to the “202 project”. At this stage, the development of a new super-powerful charge was carried out in KB-11 on the initiative of Yu. A. Trutnev and A. D. Sakharova, the team of authors also included Yu. N. Babaev, V. B. Adamsky and Yu. N. Smirnov. Original solutions and accumulated experience made it possible to implement this development extremely quickly, and the charge was successfully tested on October 30, 1961. Among the features of this charge, it should be noted that the large volume of the charge (due to its high energy release), required significant amounts of X-ray energy for implosion. The developed nuclear charges did not satisfy this condition, and therefore, a previously developed two- stage thermonuclear charge with a relatively low energy release [~500kt] was used as the primary source of the “superpowerful charge” [TWO of them, one on each end of the main fusion stage!]. This [~500kt] charge was previously developed by Yu. A. Trutnev and Yu. N. Babaev. ... In 1962 Yu. A. Trutnev and V.S. Lebedev developed a smaller version of the superbomb with an energy release 2.5 times less than the 1961 version. The reduction in energy release and overall mass parameters made it possible to count on equipping a heavy ICBM with such a charge. The charge was tested in a non-full-scale version using passive materials [/ead ablator/pusher and case lining] that significantly reduced (as in the 1961 test) the release of radioactivity in the test explosion." - I. A. Andryushin, A. K. Chernyshev, and Yu. A. Yudin, Development of the nuclear weapons program of the USSR, http://wsyachina.narod.ru/history/coretaming 6.html (deleted page but it is still available on Internet Archive Wayback Machine here:
https://web.archive.org/web/20130921043813/http://wsyachina.narod.ru/history/coretaming_6.html).
"The development of super-powerful thermonuclear charges was considered as an important task for both nuclear institutes of the USSR. The developments of nuclear charges discussed above, tested on October 30, 1961 and September 27, 1962, were carried out at VNHEF (Arzamas-16 [now called Sarov]). As examples of the development of super-powerful charges carried out by VNIITF (Chelyabinsk-70) , one can cite devices tested on September 25 and December 24, 1962. In the first case, a charge was tested that was close in characteristics to the VNIIEF charge tested on September 27, 1962. The comparison shows that they were essentially duplicate designs. In the experiment on December 24, 1962, a super-powerful charge with a nominal energy release of about 50 Mt was tested under conditions of a non-full-scale explosion with a power reduced by about half. The test confirmed the expected characteristics of the charge. Note that in the test version, which is a high purity charge, the actual nuclear [fission and fallout] energy release was small. ... The first test for the same purposes [reduced fission yield proportion, i.e. cleaner] was carried out in the USSR on October 20, 1958 at the test site on Novaya Zemlya in a modification [lead replacing U238] of the previously tested "dirty" two-stage charge. The level of nuclear [fission and fallout] energy release achieved in the development was an insignificant part of the total energy, however, the total [fusion plus fission] energy release was significantly reduced compared to the base [U238 containing] charge. ... Already in 1954, it was realized that a non-nuclear explosion of a nuclear charge is accompanied by the dispersion of plutonium, which is part of it, with its subsequent fallout. The first experiment in which practical results were obtained in this regard took place on October 19, 1954, when an unforeseen failure of a nuclear charge occurred. ... The first experiment to study the "single-point safety" of a nuclear charge was carried out in the USSR on August 26,
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1957, and, in essence, the USSR nuclear test program in the interests of security began to be implemented in 1961. A total of 11 experiments of this type were carried out during the period of atmospheric testing in the USSR. After the transition to underground nuclear tests, 14 more special nuclear tests were conducted for these purposes, as well as an additional 17 experiments as part of group nuclear explosions. ... The maximum nuclear energy release in the nuclear safety experiments was realized in the experiment on September 9, 1961. This value is close to the maximum energy release realized in the US nuclear safety tests during the period of atmospheric tests, which is 500 tons of TNT equivalent. [Nice to know Russia is concerned for nuclear safety!]" - Nuclear testing and the creation of nuclear weapons, http://wsyachina.narod.ru/history/nuclear_testing_1.html (deleted but still available on Wayback Machine: https://web.archive.org/web/20130515005510/http://wsyachina.narod.ru/history/nuclear_testing_1.html
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Tsar Bomba in Moscow 23 August 2015
The Hansen Letter ES) Serer Gia Ea To cold es
git aa Ce, , fasion fuel hath : | o,**
fission triggers ——
freveated by UCRLA725, Chicago Sun-Times. May 18, 1979p.
Wrong Right
These elements are... supported by a casing "dlling" of polystyrene or polyurethane foam
Two Primaries Radiation Implosion No Neutron Blocker Location of Foam No Spark Plug
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OLIVE GREEN PAINTED PRIMARY STAGE
IN RED SUPPORT CRADLE
CAMERA ANGLE FOR TAIL BOMB SHOWS ONLY QUICK VIEW OF END SECTION, INCLUDING X-UNIT (ORANGE BOX TRAPPED TO PRIMARY)
( () ORANGE BOX = X-UNIT SPHERICAL GREY/BLACK ORANGE BOX = X-UNIT
FOR 500KT TAIL BOMB 500 KT SECONDARY STAGE FOR 500KT NOSE BOMB
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Inspection hatch open in 1961 fil
Parachute
SPECTION HATCH (TAIL ISsLEFT, NOSE-RIGHT)
“Bombs within bombs” ("Russian i Doll" principle)
Lead
belts /
Inspection hatch open in 1961 film
8m long, 27t 50 Mt test, 1961.
A = primary
B = secondary C = tertiary A.V. Veselovsky, head of nuclear testing: "The A6027 charge was tested on October 30, 1961 proposed the idea ... for radiation implosion of the main thermonuclear unit, two thermonucle: placed on both sides (front and rear) to ensure synchronous (with a time difference of no more ignition of thermonuclear “fuel”. A.D. Sakharov [2 days before testing ordered the installation mm thick from the side of the initiating charges on the inner conical surface of the charge boi confirmed [40 years later by 3-d computer simulations in 2011] that the absence of these lead to a significant distortion of the radiation implosion sphere and a decrease in the explosion p<
the thought of the academician turned out to be much more perfect than computers available - http://www.proatom.ru/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=3364
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50 megaton Russian con trick in 1961: two 500kt thermonuclear bombs are used!
Inspection hatch open in 1961 film
Parachute system
> <>
500kt H-bomb Sphere of Li6 in lead 500kt H-bomb
Li6D STAGE n
©
What would be really impressive: series of bombs within bombs from ONE primary
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Higher resolution stills clearly show
Li6D STAGE Li6D Lieb
FUSION STAGE FUSION STAGE
100% clean nuclear weapon design, using entirely proof-tested technology {} (no speculative B.S.) D+T gas c
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CHANGE 1 NUCLEAR WEAPONS EMPLOYMENT Field Manual No 101-31-1 DOCTRINE AND PROCEDURES
Radius of vulnerability (emergency risk criterion: 5% combat ineffec
Figure 54. Radii of Vulnerability. Protective factor = ratio
area of effectin the op:
PERSONNEL (LL) IN— CATEGORY area of effect for shelte
(Based on Governing Effect) Radii listed are distances at which a 5 percent incidence of effect occurs. HOB used is 60W'/? meters.
Yield (KT) Open _[P°" apes Tanks Earth
Example: for 300 kt, the protective factor of open foxholes is equal te
Foxholes Shelter ( 14,000) /(2,100)2 = 44, (Distances are in meters} Open Ei Open Foxholes APCs Tanks Sh 0.1 700 600 600 500 300 1 1.36 1.36 1.96 § 1 1200 900 900 800 500 1 1.78 1.78 2.25 5 10 3200 1300 1300 1250 900 1 6.06 6.06 6.55 4 20 4000 1500 1450 1400 1000 1 7.11 7.61 8.16 1é 100 8000 1900 1800 1800 1400 1 ir 19.8 19.8 y 200 12000 2000 1900 1900 1500 1 36.0 39.9 39.9 64 300 14000 2100 1950 1950 1600 1 44.4 $1.5 51.5 7é
Calculation of the injury-averting protective factors by simple open foxholes and earth sh function of weapon yield. Most countermeasures are relatively ineffective against tacticc wapons (due to the predominating neutron radiation effect at 0.1 kt yield), but are extrem against strategic nuclear weapons with yields of 100, 200 and 300 kt (protective factors of
The definition of protective factor used here is the factor by which casualties numbers are
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SECRETARY OF DEFENSE 1000 DEFENSE PENTAGON WASHINGTON, DC 20301-1000
t)}s/eors
The Honorable Mitch McConnell! Majority Leader
United States Senate Weshington. DC 20510
BD ea Sevaren M «Ce morte,
You recently received a letter from several former government officials regarding the President's request to lower the nuclear explosive yield of a small number of existing submarine launched ballistic missile warheads (W76-2). As you know, the President requested this modest adjustment to our nuclear capabilities to counter Russia's apparent belief that it could use its low yield nuclear weapons to coerce the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or otherwise support conventional aggression against U.S. allies and partners.
Critics of this approach argue that current U.S. nuclear forces and nuclear doctrine can counter Russia's limited nuclear use doctrine and tactical nuclear weapons. It is not possible to determine precisely what is needed to deter with high confidence. It is, however, possible to get
teak ta’
Since the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), Russia has increased the number and diversity of its nuclear capabilities, continues to practice and exercise with these forces, and has issued veiled nuclear threats against the United States, its allies, and partners. This suggests that Russia is seeking ways to use nuclear weapons in support of its national security policy, and it suggests that measures by the previous Administration te modernize our nuclear forces may not be sufficient to deter Russian aggression. North Korea has made similar, coercive nuclear threats.
Particularly in the case of Russia, although it is true that the United States already has low-yicid capable nuclear weapons, these weapons must be delivered by aircraft. which are vulnerable to formidable existing Russian air defenses. Russia may conclude that it can blunt the current U.S. low-yield response and that the United States would be self-deterred from using Strategic nuclear weapons; the W76-2 low-yield warhead dispels this notion — however mistaken it might be. 7 es ey de i '
(Also, low-yield option of B61 has insignificant neutron output!)
The authors of the letter argue the ar war Cannot be coy roi
such thing as a limited nuclear war. Unfortunately, potential adversaries have openly discussed the benefits of limited nuclear employment. Therefore, effective U.S. deterrence requires ensuring that potential adversaries do not miscalculate regarding the consequences of nucicar first usc, either regionally or against the United States itself. They must understand that there are
no possible bencfits from non-nuclear aggression or limited nuclear escalation. The W76-2 warhead is meant to reinforce the credibility of our response, which strengthens deterrence by denying potential adversaries the advantages they appear to believe they could realize from nuclear first use, It sends a signal to Russia and other potential adversaries that, in the words of
és
The 1990
EM-1 give edition, st surface bt only 0.66€ yield dial-i multiple y warhead t
This is bec high yield primary st the low-yi nuclear wi
President Trump's US Secretary of Defense defending low yield tactical nuclear v to invade other countries and to use nuclear coercion threats of escalating a con
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mmens | SERA tute 20007
aisraraeae nares ile te The Future of Non-Strategic Nuclear Forces No. 41. of 90 copies, Series A ; . Are These Capabilities Still Needed? (U) Nuclear Weapon Data Si 3 _— Joseph S. Howard II Edward I. Whitted April 30, 1991 Therefore, we are incredulous of US forces without NSNF to prevent war orto Under the three
terminate war against hostile nuclear-armed states. The rationale for NSNF must rest upon its capabilities to deter a plausible resurgent Soviet Union, or rationale of det: any of several regional powers with potential nuclear capabilities. As NSNF prevention and if kept the long peace in Europe because it engendered cautious behavior, so
should NSNF be kept as an incalculable risk towards any nuclear state | contemplating aggression.
The rationale for NSNF also involves the element of credibility: the NCA should have options other than central strategic forces for an appropriate response.
_ SHORE :
‘a)Another example would be early retirement of the W79. The W79-1
** enhanced radiation warhead is very effective against troop formations. Many DCAs delivering gravity bombs would be needed to substitute, probably inadequately, for this capability loss.
deter aggressior
yh _
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UNCLASSIFIED
4 _— i EE ee ee 10° —e Open Field Dose 5 =e—NYC Urban Dos: 10 10° -_—-_~ ® 40° 75 10 — @ act rs 10 O 10 10° 10, 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Distance from GZ (m)
UNCLASSIFIED
jo) Oo
%
| | | j
- Blueprint container . Petrol cans
“ec. Paper screens in bamboo frames - Panel of timber barn
@ oO
an oOo
pb Oo
~ °
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 DISTANCE FROM HIROSHIMA GROUND ZERO, KM Data from Dr W. G. Penney, et al., 'The Nuclear Explosive Yields at Hiroshima and Nagasaki', Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc.,
PEAK OVERPRESSURE FALL DUE TO DAMAGE DONE,
v266 (1970), pp. 357-424.
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Basis for the 99.9% clean Ripple 11 10 megaton Houstonic deterrent,
tested by Nuckolls in 1962
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Inertial Confinement Nuclear Fusion:
A historical Approch by its Pioneers. Edited by Guillermo Velarde and Natividad Santamaria
Foxwell & Davies (UK) Ltd © 2007
Contributions to the Genesis and Progress
of [CF
John H. Nuckolls
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, LLNL
Hig, 6, Bure Drop Target with Optimized Pulse Shape (1961).
-1.875
“The implosion enables efficient TN burn by reducing the fusion burn time relative to the inertial confinement time and the radiative cooling time.(1)"
(1): For example, a spherical implosion increases the specific burn rate faster than the inertial confinement time decreases. Specific burn rate is proportional to
density, which is inversely proportional to the cube of
the radius. \nertial confinement time is proportional to the radius. At constant temperature, total burn-up increases with rate X time, which is inversely proportional to the square of the radius.
Pebe Sbape Pulse shape is (1 - t) Which is produced using plastic foam baffles to Time
control the x-ray transit from the primary stage Meanwhile, ! focused on technological surprises. In April 1962, a few months before the scheduled
end of the atmospheric test series, | proposed a nuclear test of a radical high-yield TN design so fan- tastic that my colleagues thought it was an April Fool’s-day joke. In this radical design, a high-per- formance TN secondary was imploded with a highly optimized pulse.
Foster dispatched me to Washington to support approval of a nuclear test of my scheme. I was accompanied by Roland Herbst, a theoretical physicist and experienced weapons designer. I briefed AEC Chairman Glenn Seaborg, and my former boss, DOD’s R&D leader Harold Brown. President Kennedy approved the nuclear test - the last experiment in the test series.
I was the lead nuclear designer - and this was my first nuclear test. Not nearly enough time or com- puter resources were available. Livermore’s nuclear design experts believed success was impossible. Foster and Moulthrop were notable exceptions. I severely constrained the nuclear design to minimize calculations, to use parts that could be rapidly fabricated, and to avoid or overpower failure modes. Nuclear design, engineering, and fabrication were completed in two months. (Today, years would be
The pulse history needed (shaped by plastic foam baffles to control the x-ray flow), is in John Nuckolls, Lowell Wood, et al., Nature, 15 September 1972, RIGHT:
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In 1957, Brown asked r by periodically exploding | cavity excavated in a moul to develop peaceful uses of
I realized that a few hu: ate a very small-scale fusic the fourth power of the rac can be avoided even thoug
Implosion symmetry is
walls of the hohlraum is efi cr than the implosion veloc idly equalizing temperaturc
Growth rates of fluid in hundred eV temperature b
Driving pressures of s ters/second can be generat peratures, material sound velocities required to isent thousand-fold compressio fold,
‘lv minimize the implo enaliles, The Fermi ener;
I developed an ablative out use of a pusher. A sust er input and a suitable abl of most of the DT while adjusting the pulse shape target design containing k
In a series of 1961 cal pulse shapes, very high-g On a pre-dawn mornin, sion of my device from a C
In August and Septemt device. We further optimi
initial shock sj sound speed (
yard so that ptimum x-ri
where t= 1—f¢ the centre of tl
cation of Ep), s
electrons (y=!
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Sse ecg eens pre 3 Vo. Ostober 13, 1949 N\ ‘ ) TO: Technical Council Members AN
is doctr ?’ a N ions) Deirnae oi tae Coited state: : rd Teller . 2 al eri PROM Edwa Al eden or ihe Giccier ere ol its contents eee to an unauthorized person proid anced
SUBJECT: THE SUPER BOMB AND THE LASORATORY PROGRAM Tesult in severe criminal penalties D applicable Federal laws. Sp H2000 505 000
¥ Juqee Deow P
1l be a disoussion in the Teoh Council rehagetberr- the ing the question whether our
Laboratory program and in particular concern
effort ba be so increased as to make the Super Bomb feasible within the
foresecable future. JI should like to present to you my views on this
matter in this memorandum. In this way, I hope that more thought can
be given to the question before Technical Counc!] convenes.
ty 4—
ADWD-2-7 ' ence U
WS
On Monday there wi
DF ENERGY DECLASGEIFICAT IVT ren vi
I would Ike to outline why it is essential for us to develop a Super Bomb at the earliest possible time or else be able to say with reasonable con- fidence that the Super is not feasible. The arguments that have lec me to this conolusion are of various kinds.
POLITICAL COKSIDERATION:
nit ie my conviction that a peaceful settlement with the Rusaians js poss
je t now possess such only if we possess overwhelming superiority We do no eetanis . The most promising prospect to acquire a great lead is by an
DR EDWARD TELLER ON NEED FOR DEMOCRACIES TO USE "OVERWHELMING SUPERIORITY" TO ATTAIN PEACE!
This is a repeat of Winston Churchill's argument for peacekeeping in 1908, when Norman Angell opposed him by arguing that it would create an arms race with an enemy. (See Joad's 1939 Why War.) After WWI, due to Grey's dithering failure to deter the invasion of Belgium (akin to Chamberlain with Poland 25 years later), Grey used Angell's theory of an arms race to excuse his failure. (See President Kennedy's Why England Slept to see how this arms race excuse was then used in the 1930s to prevent an arms race with the Nazis, with tragic results since rearming slower than the enemy causes war, not being superior!) Angell was given a Knighthood and a Nobel Peace Prize, essentially for helping Hitler's thugs!
The bottom line is, an arms race is better than WWIII; you win an arms race through the economic attrition of the enemy!
ABOVE: physicist and author Colin Bruce Sibley's 1977 book Surviving Doomsday, which was reviewed by Peter Laurie in New
Scientist, 13 April 1978, p97, where Laurie points out: "I'm afraid that Mr Sibley has fallen into the popular error of confusing
what modern weapons can do, with what they will do." This followed his 1976 Foreign Affairs Research Institute paper, "The
strategic significance of Soviet civil defence preparedness". Unfortunately, Sibley had been producing children's educational stuff, for
example producing a vinyl record of the 1969 Moon Landings, Journey to the Moon (Pickwick International Ltd.), and in 1976 he
authored The How and Why Wonder Book of Energy and Power Sources and The How and Why Wonder Book of Oil (Transworld Publishers Ltd., 1976 and 1979), see illustration below. He used this same children's book style to write Surviving Doomsday! Sibley (1935-2008) later edited Protect and Survive Monthly. The reason for this was the attitude of publishers: they knew that hard facts on
nuclear weapons didn't sell easily and needed a lot of "gloss" to be economically viable for printing. This same farce occurred with a UK
Government booklet, Protect and Survive.
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Prefacesgeedctrmuuneic he oe ae R Hiroshima and Nagasaki. ... . . . The Nuclear Arsenal Race Without End Pam ~ Pe 6) h ) rc Mj A \ » 4 "ey Wes 9 Hd J ey CD en |
The MIRV and MARV Missile Systems Submarine Launched Strategic Missiles . Anti-Submarine Warfare- ASW... , Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems - ABM’s, The Cruise Missile
Strategic Missile Warfare : ) ; ; y ==
J bay “A Cc BE 3} 6
The Physics of Nuclear Weapons What is an Explosion? ....... The Physics of Nuclear Explosions. . The Atomic Bomb ........-: Thermonuclear Weapons — The Hydro; Fission-Fusion-Fission Bombs. . . -
The Effects of Nuclear Weapons
The Distribution of Energy Released . The Blinding Light Flash... .- - - The Fireball ee ene Radiated Heat... - - 2 +c: The Blast or Shock Wave. ---- - The Mushroom Cloud .-.---:-:- Cube-Root Law for Blast (Only). - - Initial Radiation... ---+-: °°" Residual Radiation. -.---+-:- : Radioactive Fallout is Harmful to Lifi Local and Intermediate Fallout ..- - Global Fallouts:iieim samara ect
The Effects of Radiation Radiation — Ionization and Human C
The Author
Colin Bruce Sibley has made a special study of modern warfare and a oe ge pa was trained as a physicist but spent several years working in several fields of electron
technical writing.
He has published several scientific ae and Pe Po a re bee
dio-aid for schools “Journey * 3 oy eae
tee SI ont Sources” has just been published and another entitled uel oO
“ni --¢ Civil Defence” which ntitled ‘The Strate ic Significance of Soviet Civil De 1978. In 1976 he wrote a paper e titl trategic Sign ie ae |
the Foreign Affairs Research Institute and received world
S e = I . y . tt “>
Civil Defence Institute. RIGHT: 1977 book Surviving Doomsday by Colin Bruce Sible
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6 Protect & Survive Monthly October 1981
“ (P&S MONTHLY EDITOR = BRUCE SIBLEY). :
rget Cities...
can they be evacuated ? +
During a nuclear attack (or indeed conventional/gas attack), British citizens will be instructed to remain indoors, to ‘stay-put’ inside crude refuges made of wood, plastic bags filled with soi! and slanted doors, or back garden trenches. This extraordinary dictum has led to heated debate; in parliament, in local authority council chambers, at home and in the factories and offices. Most of this argument and counter-argument is reflected in the news- casts and special features of the press and broadcasting media. Undoubtedly, without ‘proper shelters’ millions may die or be seriously injured if our cities, towns, ports, and airfields fal! victim to a massive air attack.
Graham Stathers — cartographer and member of the Roya! United Services Institute for Defence Studies and the National Council for Civil Defence, has made a specia! study of city evacuation logistics (or Crisis Relocation in the US.}. His knowledge of maps and population statistics provides us with some new insights into the practi- calities of relocating large numbers of citizens away from potential targets. This article is based on a Monograph Study prepared by the author after several years of research. It is possibly the ‘first’ unofficial report of its kind in the United Kingdom. And it is obvious that its findings underline the value of city-evacuation in time of international crisis — both from a humane and defensive morale standpoint. Without a national shelter policy, “stay-putters’ would undoubtedly ‘vote’ for evacuation — regardless of the official attitude. Unsupervised ‘panic’ evacuation can only lead to the widespread breakdown in public order and the disinheritance of government directives. We could lose the fight for freedom by turning in upon ourselves — victory would go to the attacker . . .
— oo — — —
IN ORDER TO CREDIBLY DECLARE WWII AGAINST GERMANY ON SUNDAY 3 SEPTEMBER 1939 DUE TO THE INVASION OF POLAND, BRITAIN EVACUATED KIDS FROM LONDON IN OPERATION PIED PIPER 48 HOURS EARLIER
WD ini ny Ke ep,
|. Toilet/wasti waste shaft
{ I
“wthin the she
the Sal most campin
you should not nm Y OF lo your attic wal
ton xg this supply remaining intal eH attack
= Decontamination y drainage system
% meeting, and lighting by ® by i Provided you ensure that “ NA deg devices are ejected from "thy Meee all chimneys must be sh . Pray, Permit polluted air to enter the she . rs onsune OXYP silahle for breal
/ Decontamination
od
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The suit * neutralize or greatly weaken the effects of lethal chemi agents when they contaminate the suit.
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Information which has reached His Maj in the United Kingdom and the French Gover that Germen troops have crossed the Polish that attacksfpon Polish towns are proceedi
Efiibia intommetien-iccomectiiR. opp Government of the United Kingdom end Franc action the German Government have created (viz, en aggressive act of force against threatening the independence of Poland) wh the implementation by the Governments of t¢ Kingdom and France of the undertaking to P to her assistance.
I am accordingly to inform Your Excel the German Governnent |cen inaetritely sati Governgént in fhe United Kingdom Anet —
Si Ar in the Arornoesmpffere preps
fajesty's Government satisfactory assu
unt His German Government has suspended all eggres against Poland and jarewprepered=promptly + forces from Polish territory, His Mejesty' in the United Kingdom will without hesitat
obligations to Poland,
This is Britain's final ultimatum letter to Germany, writte appeaser and Jew hater Lord Halifax, delivered at 9 am <¢
“Home made” Protective suit
A survivor's protective suit must fulfil several important criter
@ The suit must prevent fallout dust and bio-chemical age from touching the skin.
@ The suit respirator (air mask) must filter and absorb poisonous gases,
fumes, aerosols, and radioactive dus
must be impregnated with chemicals wh)
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50p
The ) HOW)
COLIN BRUCE SIBLEY WROTE THE 1976 CHILDRENS BOOKS, The How and Why Wonder Book of Energy and Power (above left) and The How and Why Wonder Book of Oil (above right). He wrote his civil defence book in exactly the same way, Surviving Doomsday.
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
energy a special kind of energy?
: wae’
der Bot**
26
Contents Page THE ATOMIC AGE BEGINS 5 What is chemical ene Death of a City 6 Where does “atomic: 6 What holds the nucle DAWN IN THE DESERT sf How much binding er Zero Hour ‘ How many kinds of a A DANGEROUS GAME 7 Are all the atoms of a Fifty-two Tons of Uranium 8 What is an isotope? Will It Work? 8 What is the “binding The Game Starts 10 Did the big atoms ha’ binding energy? 2=XTRA WORK 11 BELLE EXTR How can we get at s Letter from Berlin 11 a of ee : esn't binding A Sound Nobody Ever Heard 12 the aigen? B A VERY STRANGE IDEA 12 ATOM SMASHING What is the universe made of? 12 Who discovered radii What is the difference between Do atoms ever split | matter and energy? 13 : Fal “ Why was radioactivil How can we tell matter from energy 15 ‘ ; Why are neutrons go What is energy? 15 i Se 9 4 How do we split urar How do we measure energy? 17 : - - - ; = What happens when Can we “make” energy? 7 Fi ‘ - = What is a “chain rez Do we burn up energy? 18 What'd 4 Where does used energy go to? 18 ae Ge SoS salarete What happens when we burn matter? 18 Ma eeoee bee one Bt . : ~ " Can we make atom Can we change matter into energy? 18 How d When did physicists change their mind? 19 mae 4 ve sae What does E = mc? mean? 20 aT cS F saree aa} Does E = mc? work for all kinds of matter? 20 np tke? AO 7 + “nereyv Cz ce ge! o ae How much energy can we get from matter? 21 How do we start the INSIDE THE ATOM 21 Why is there a “criti What is matter made of? 21 How does an A-bon What are clements? 22 How can we tame tl _ What did Dalton discover about atoms? 22 aio do we keep fro} . oo Many neutron Ate atoms solid? 22 y Why are slow neutre We see atoms? 23 fast neutrons? did we learn what is inside the atom? 23 How do we make th ow do we look at atoms? 24 What kind of reacto What is inside the atom? 24 How can we use re; How big is the nucleus? 24 Why do we need ne’ /hat is the nucleus made of? 25 SUNS MADE TO 0} hy do the electrons keep flying around Where do stars get the nucleus? 26
What happens insid How does an H-bon Can we tame the H-
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—
as
rt fuMAN
oreo
These books answer the questions most offen asked about science, nature and history. They
Pr rine
THE HOW AND WHY WONDER BOOK OF
ENERGY AND POWER
Written by C. BRUCE SIBLEY Wustrated by RAYMOND TURVEY
TRANSWORLD PUBLISHERS LTD. - LONDON
_ GERMAN MATCHLOCK
MUSKET—ABOUT 161!
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NUCLEAR DELIVERY SYSTEMS SINCE 2010
Sround-Launched _ Sea-Launched = Air-Launched #2 22 = MEF @2@S ix
ma vi4 : 12% -_ wile | 10%
1962:
TOTAL TRIA of DoD Budg
| at ; iG 8% : 8 8% g H z BAL 2 6% : | Ba fe) a F 2% retetete? | N g ' ' a 0% | a $2355 Figure 1. Nuclear Delivery Systems Since 2010 a WN Aaa Figure 3. Cost of DoD 1 Data provided by the DoD Data provided by DoD 2.5% CONVENTIONAL ERA NUCLEAR RUSSIA ERA 2.27% 2 Z 2% wwil — & 1.75% Ss g WWI ° 0 2 28 RUSSIA < 1.31% 1.12% ~~ E ly = 1.15% hr 5 1% 0.5%
0.4%
<0.01%
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Figure 4. Russia’s Non-Strategic
Figure 2. Wartime Fatalities Percentage of World Population Data provided by the DoD
Data from the DoD Historical Office Russia is modernizing an active
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Revie)
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Then finally | heard the buzzer and a commander's note was passed out to us
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| ran to the switching equipment and inserted the codes into it.
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hen finally | heard the buzzer and a mander's note was passed out to us That was 8
the switching ec serted the code
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ABOVE: Air raid sirens operator Yoshie Oka who survived the nuclear explosion near ground zero in the military bunker just north of Hiroshima Castle on 6 August 1945, identified the B29 bombers (which Tokyo had tracked by the Enola Gay B29 bomber radio call sign), and passed on a report to her seniors in time to get the people of Hiroshima into their air raid shelters, most of which survived intact against a 16 kt nuclear air burst at 600 metres altitude (by cube-root scaling, similar peak pressures would occur at ground zero for a 16 megaton burst at 6000 metres altitude, since the cube-root of a 1000 fold increase is 10, i.e. 103 = 1000, and although the blast duration is also 10 times longer, the blast arrival time also scales up similarly, so it also takes 10 times longer for the blast wave to arrive at ground zero, giving people a far better chance to "duck and cover", and of course in the higher yield burst the scaling of the bomb case thickness and burst altitude will allow far more mean free paths of radiation shielding metal and air which make the initial radiation a minor threat like the thermal flash inside concrete buildings). But the army officers in Hiroshima were taking breakfast so there was a long delay, and eventually at 8:13, just two minutes before detonation, she finally received the order to start the complex sequence needed to sound the public air raid sirens, putting codes into the air raid sirens to permit operation! She was still trying to get the air raid alarm out when the bomb went off. This is why there was no warning in Hiroshima and most people were not in the plentiful public shelters or concrete buildings. Shamefully this vital evidence for the failure of civil defense in Hiroshima is completely edited out of the fake news which passes for nuclear weapons information in so-called
free democracies.
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KOJMEKTAHBHBIE CPEQCTBA SAWATHI OT AT
CKEMA YOCHIMLJA, moct /—exoqMan ABepe, noct 2—oTCeEn, fOCT J — ane Tpo-sewraRyeoaR
me pe ee ee eee re meq a Even in 1956 (as this poster shows), Russia had an extensive civil defence shelter program, fro
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that most people prefer not to think about it at all. If they are forced to, they probably have two hazy but permanent convictions: a couple bombs will completely flatten the ry, and that Civil Defence quite lay down and died years ago. idea is accurate. For the nd, Civil Defence in its wider
7 ea.
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
and we are well up the international league table of the amount spent per
head of the population. W. Germany 17s. 6d. Britain 10s. Od. Italy 5s. Od. U.S.A. 4s. 6d. Sweden 2s. 4d. France 2s. Od.
Since 1948, when C.D. began, we
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5 Megaton airburst; Masonry bridges intact G.P.O. tower cores Outer edge of Factor | a at 8000 feet at 1.7 miles; steam stand at 24 miles: rubble 33 miles. high, fireball does locomotives head on to new Civil Defence | Houses 75 per
i: not touch blast at 24 miles will aerials can —_cent. down at hi ground; there is no still run. Man, if protected easily be fitted. 54 miles, but 90 ent me significant from heat Ships at 2% miles per cent. of fall-out. Underground and debris, can _ damaged people under _ trains undamaged live at 2 miles but seaworthy _ stairs will live
: he whole subject of | aspects is very much alive; spending | have spent over £100
nuclear war is so nasty | this year will amount to £19.5 million, | roughly the capital cost of
and delivery systems.
As for the H bomb though it is because of the it will cause, it is not as tote tive as is popularly suppose gram, based on information Hiroshima, Nagasaki and i weapons trials, shows how ¢ objects can be to a five n burst and survive.
Peter Laurie, Sunday Times Magazine 10/12/67
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G.P.O. tower cores
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
4 Hagen 6000 feu eareig fp nari stand at 24 miles: ropa ind fortary eae locomotives head on to new Civil Defence Houses 75 per ‘34 miles, blast ot 24 miles will oerials con — cent, down at heavy lothes still run, Man, ted easily be fitted. 5} miles, but 90 and major 3 seaee EAS TOP Snes « nate py Sirrsing vedeneged live ot 2 miles but seaworthy — stairs will live até miles aspects is very much alive; spending | have spent over £1000 million; this year will amount to £19.5 million, | roughly the capital cost of the deterrent and we are well up the international | and systems. league table of the amount spent per As for the H bomb, terrifying head of the population. though it is because of the loss of life W. Germany 17s, 64. it will cause, it is not as totally destruc~ Britain 10s. Od. tive as is popularly supposed, This dia~ Italy 5s. Od. gram, based on information at USA. 4s. 6d. Hiroshima, Nagasaki and in American Sweden 2s, 4d. weapons trials, shows how close various France 2s. Od. objects can be to a five megaton air- Since 1948, when C.D, began, we | burst and survive.
Truss bridges use
at 4} miles,
diese!
locomotives
but will run ot
5} miles
We show the effects of an airburst because that is the most efficient way
of using a nuclear weapon againnt a city.
Blast carries 30 per cent. further, heat 60 per cent, further than from a ground burst. There would be no significant fall-out, but anyone launching a large- scale attack might well be glad of that, since it has been calculated by W. J. Humphries of the United States Weather Bureau that the dust thrown into the stratosphere by a. 2000 mega-
Electricity
if pylons, self-supporting radio transmitting towers and cars
survive ot about 6 miles
Limit of major fire zone in average British weather
tons groundburst would reduce solar +] radiation by 20 per cent, and might precipitate another ice-age.
The strong tactical point about nuclear weapons is their ability to raise fires. It’s often thought these will coalesce into firestorms — as shown in | this The War Game. There is some doubt whether this will happen: but since one can't do much about a firestorm except to build deep shelters ~ which we can't afford — the point is rather academic.
ABOVE: Peter Laurie's article on civil defence in the Sunday Times Magazine, 10 December 1967, pages 39 et seq., formed the basis of
his later book Beneath the City Streets. The article states (on page 50) that the popularist (faked) megadeath nuclear war casualty figures
were even in 1967 not without precedent since exactly the same media trash exaggerations on casualties and knock-out blow strategy also
existed before WWII (contributing to the appeasement that encouraged Hitler): "a very similar situation existed in 1938. Everyone
believed - and these were official estimates - that the Luftwaffe could flatten half London in 3 weeks and kill 3,000,000 people. Few
Londoners ran away, and few got bloodthirsty. More to the point, a booklet was issued to every household that winter: The
protection of your home against air raids. In August 1939 Mass Observation did a survey on what people knew of something
simple: the two air raid sirens. Five out of six got them wrong ..."" Laurie's article was, of course, published just 4 months before the
British civil defence corps was abolished by hard left wing Prime Minister Harold Wilson in March 1968. But Laurie points out on page
40 of his article that the London underground (ordinary tube trains, not just the specially hardened shelters at 8 stations) will survive
directly below a 5 megaton burst at 8,000 feet altitude, which optimises blast effects on buildings, and he points out that the "fireball does
not touch the ground: there is no significant fallout." Sure, you can reduce the height of burst to try to damage underground facilities and
to cause fallout, but then you no longer optimise the effects on ordinary houses. Laurie in his massive nuclear weapons effects diagram on
the same page points out that 75% of British houses are demolished at 5.25 miles from the 5 megaton air burst at 8,000 ft altitude: "but
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Peter Laurie, Si
S el Limit of major Scale: each band represents one mile 70 fire zone in average British s weather
tons groundburst would reduce solar radiation by 20 per cent. and might precipitate another ice-age.
The strong tactical point about nuclear weapons is their ability to raise fires. It’s often thought these will coalesce into firestorms — as shown in The War Game. There is some doubt whether this will happen: but since one can’t do much about a firestorm except to build deep shelters — which we can’t afford — the point is rather academic.
So much for the relative certainties of the single bomb. If we were involved in an all-out war more than one would arrive. How many, and where? The basic problem is to imagine an enemy’s motives in launching a strike against this country, but the Home Office makes the underlying assumption that a bomb might arrive anywhere (in C.D. exercises they often fall on the most unlikely places) mixed in with two basic attack patterns. One, the pre-
emptive counter strike, | of perhaps 100 one meg directed at naval bases, quarters and the V bom fields. But as Bomber C they can scramble thei have them safely on th the four-minute warnir arguable that an enem: to deal with them more. their run in over his ter:
The other attack pa
90% of people under stairs will live" (the WWII Morrison table shelter principle, which is independent of bomb yield because the weight of a collapsing house is independent of bomb yield). His article states that the 1967 British civil defence budget was 10s per person, compared to 17s 6d in West Germany, but adds that "Since 1948, when [nuclear war] civil defence began, we have spent over £1000 million; roughly the capital cost of the deterrent and delivery systems." Laurie also points out in his 1967 article that the very high protection factors of deep shelters make them unfeasible because Russia can produce rockets to negate them for 33% of the cost of the shelters. In order to win an arms race by economic attrition through civil defence, therefore, you need cheaper shelters that cost less than the weapons the enemy is making to try to break through your defences (the same point occurred in WWII, when cheap indoor Morrison table shelters were deployed instead of the economically-crippling gold-plated variety, having been invented and tested by Lord Baker and his assistant Edward Leader-Williams, who - with Frank H. Pavry and George R. Stanbury - in the 1950s tested key British WWI shelters against nuclear weapons at Monte Bello and Maralinga and used the results to develop them into effective but cheap nuclear shelters, published finally in the 1982 UK Government book Domestic Nuclear Shelters - Technical Guidance). Finally, Laurie makes the point that devastation in war can transform politics into dictatorial communism: "Russia, for example, by the end of the first world war [the Red revolution was in October 1917 in Russia] had lost, in comparison to 1913: one half to two thirds livestock, one half grain production,
90% of coal, steel, textiles, and transport, 28 million people." The lesson is that if your country is devastated by the effects of war like
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Russia or Germany in 1918 or Vietnam in 1975, the survivors are likely to have to live in a politically extreme dictatorship, justified by
the sheer destruction and the populist need for revenge at any cost.
4W—THE ILLUSTRATED LUNDON NEWS—Marcn 25. 1954
MOSCOW—WHERE BRITISH SUBJECTS WERE ARRESTED ANDMAY BE TRIED: W |
Moscow after an uncomfortable journey |
the right, | could see the walls of the Kremlin. | from Omsk. “Some of the avenues were
and leaning a little farther | could see the
Tsar's golden eagle gleaming at the very moothly paved,” he writes in 1912 | highest point of the Kremlin buildings sur they were content with cobblestones. Pri | rounded by the red flags of Communism vate automobiles were few, but buses were | By virtue of its own beauty, Moscow was many, and the trams were frequent and a magnificent sight in the dawnlight, with full. Shacks and palaces passed by us in the sun fresh upon ft. But the mind added chaotic alternation, the bizarre grandeur resh interest, by the consciousness of all of old churches mingled with the crude the m ry and all the violent passion that boxes and parallel lines of modernistic lay aled beneath those golden domes monstrosities; the great stores that had n sily within that Kremlin, where the given colour to this thoroughfare twenty red flags and the golden eagle stood aide by years before were closed, and white sheets
side. the eagle surrounded by red flags, as by draped their vast windows dismally. Dingy my that had captured and caged It.” tenements opened their sleepy portals and
y turn from Mr, O'Plaherty’s romantic sent forth streams of workers to shops and eo what a matter-of-fact American factories. These people seemed better dressed than those in Omsk, though they had caps for hats and sneakers for shoes, and their blouses, though unwashed, were a picturesque and sensible costume, The manners seemed rough, but not unkind
We en
vision bserver—and one with a confessed affec: tion for the Russian people—found in sw. Mr. Will Durant gave his im.
ssia in a series of exceedingly
Mo.
pression lucid
Saturday
well-informed articles in the
Evening Post
He arrived in . . We passed the Red Square — [Continued om right
PROPAGANDA IN MOSCOW, WHERE THR MOTIVES OF INDIVIDUAL ENTERPRISK Amt REPLACED NY TRAISE AWD COLLECTIVE ENTHUSIASM: A BOARD ON WITCH THE CMHARACTERICTION OF VARIOUS FACTORIES ARK PUBLICLY DISFLAYED—A SNAIL SYMNOLISING SLOW WORKERS; AND 80 FORTH,
| he view of the arrest of British subjects in Moscow, on a charge of sabotage, and the consequent protests by this country, general conditions in the Russian capital are of exceptional interest at the moment. “A city unique among the cities of the world, the cultural, social, and political centre of a country occupying one sixth of the entire surface of the earth, the capital of the first Socialist State—the USS.R.— which has preserved many Interesting relics
of all stages of its growth through eight [Comtimaand below
IN A LAND IN WHICH HUNGKY CKOWDS OF PrkO
WHEKE A CERTAIN MODICUM OF FOOD IX A WORKER'S RATION“ LONG AS FOR SOME DAYS FOR A SEAT IN A TRAIN] A TY
WE DESERVES WELL OF THE SOCIALIST STATE: A PATIENT FOOD-QUEUE WAITING 1O PRESENT THEIR FOOD “couFoKs,” PASSENGERS WAITING PHLEGMATICALLY IN
WITH TS RUN ON MORE FAMILIAR LINES, IN WHICH PORCHASES MAY mx MADK IN JARY WAY—AGAINST FOREIGN MONEY OR GOLD: « “TORGSIN ESTABLISHMENT. WITH MOTICHS IN ENGLISH FOR THE BENEFIT OF POREIONERS
z”
centuries although continually changing its aspect—such is Moscow.’ So guidebook. Let us now take the reaction of a sensitive observer, the city on his first morning. “The dawn was wonderful and
” (writes Mr. Liam O'Flaherty in “| Went to Russia”) “ because of the that lay before me, gleaming in the morning light, with its golden domes shimmering. The hotel was on a height, and my room was on the sixth A FREQUENT SIGHT IN MOSCOW—WHERE AN UNDERGNOUND RAILWAY HAS NOT
a] :
Hi
A THORODOGHLY UNSOCIALISTIC AND PERFECTLY floor, so that I could see that quarter of the city right to the very outskirts YET BEEN WROUGHT TO THK POINT AT WHICH IT [8 EFFECTIVE IN) RRLIRVING PHENOMENON |—TRADESPEOPLE BRINGING FOOD TC PLATFORM TO TRAVELLERS WITH A LITTLA
ABOVE: photos of paranoid dictatorial Russia from the 25 March 1933 I//ustrated London News article, when British citizens in Moscow (Allan Monkhouse, John Cushny, W. H. Thornton, W. H. McDonald, Charles Nordwall et al.) were arrested by the OGPU of Stalin's regime on trumped up charges of sabotage (they all worked for the British Metropolitan-Vickers electrical engineering company, and the Russians claimed falsely the company was planning to blow up the Dnieprostroy Dam by pouring sand or acid into the turbines, when in fact the blades were 5 tons and were washed clean by millions of gallons of water daily!), and when ordinary Russians had to endure food
rationing in peacetime.
ABOVE: the relationship of civil defence by a dictatorship to its aggressive policy (such as Germany's compulsory cellar bunker shelters in the 30s and Russia's in the cold war) was documented in the 14 October 1933 //lustrated London News showing civil defence anti-
disarmament propaganda in Hitlers Nazi Germany, stating: "In view of the world-wide interest in the question of disarmament, with which
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W4—THE ILLUSTRATED LONDON NEWS-Ocr 14, 1955
GERMANY PRACTISING “PASSIVE AIR DEFENCE” : TEACHING CIVILIANS HOW TO ACT UNDER AERIAL ATTACK.
KEEN LECTURE TO BOYS: THE £ THAT GERMANY IS ALLOWED ANTIVAIRCRAFT GAS-MASK DEMONATRATIONN IN THE MILITARY ARROPLANES UNDER THE “ 5 x REATY, WHILE MER NEFGHMOURS HAVE 10 MAKE THEI WAY TO A SHELTER WHEN THE THEI MOUTHS WITH A WET CLOTH EF TH
A POMLIC LECTURE TO CIVILIANS ON THE DANGERS OF INVASION BY AIK A MAZE OFFICIAL EXPLAINING VARIOUS TYFES OF POM® TO AN AUDTENCE COMPOSED MOSTLY OF WOMEN
N view of the world-wide interest in the question of disarmament, with which is invelwed that of the re-armament claimed by Germany, it ts significant that the Nazi régime appears to be its activities, and the training of the youth of the
on more or less military lines, At the same time it is only Contimued opposite
SERVING OUT GAS- MASKS IN ONE OF THE ANTE + AIRCRAFT « SIIEL~ TERS: A DEMONSTRATOR FITTING A WOMAN WITH A MASK, WHILE OTHER CIVILIANS WATCH THE PROCESS.
Continued)
attacked—that Is, the in- struction of the popula- tion In protective devices, such as the wearing of gas-masks, to be adopted in the event of an in vasion by air. Frequent lectures and demon strations are given, and men, women, and children are taught to take refuge promptly
In special underground AT ONE OF THE REFUGE-CELLARS IN WHICH LECTURES AR INTERESTING IN VIEW OF A RECENT WARNING 1 shaltersdiead pt Kai) (COUme, AWWOED: STRAY Ore pe Sa Ane’ ORE VALUABLES IN" ATTICS OM” UFFEH tinguish, by sand, fires "*CACED IN wal See ape mai, ctor trainee A eee os novus ot the kind that might e D Boor
be caused by bombs. The spirit in which these lectures are given may be gathered of Greater Berlin seems impossible. On the ot! from the following extract from a German descriptive mote which accompanies the dangerous, as they can be dropped in large quar photographs Germany is not allowed to have fighting aeroplanes either on land allowed to have civil aercplanes, but the form or sea.’ Thus runs Clause 196 of the shameful Treaty of Versailles, What this cautions against the possibility of an alr attas
one knows that the States adjoining
ing the population om this matter. Thus
THIS WAY TO THE PUBLIC AIR-REFUGE-CELLAR!" A DUMMY FIGURE IN A GAS-MASK decision means can only be realised when ernment was to show people how to act
Germany have at their disposal from 7000 to 8000 fighting aircraft, while Germany C has been completely disarmed and has no defence against an enemy air attack Hermann Géring appealed to the German natio
AND CLAD IN A PROTECTIVE UNIFORM, SET UF IN A GERMAN STRERF TO INDICATE THE EXTRANCE TO A SHELTER.
is involved that of the re-armament claimed by Germany, it is significant that the Nazi regime appeas to be conducting all its activities, and training of the youth of the nation, on more or less military lines ... We illustrate in the photographs on these pages one phase of the all-pervading propaganda calculated to create in the German people the fear that one day or another they may be attached ... children are taught to take refuge promptly in special underground shelters and to extinguish, by sand, fires of the kind that might be caused by bombs. The spirit in which these lectures are given may be gathered from the following extract ... : " 'Germany is not allowed to have fighting aeroplanes on land or sea.' Thus runs Clause 198 of the shameful Treaty of Versailles ... Germany has been completely disarmed and has no defence against an enemy air attack." Having first set up effective German civil defence in 1933, the next step of the Nazis was to re- arm in preparation to setting the clock back to 1914. Stalin did the same in Russia. Putin follows suite. As Herman Kahn forecast over 60 years ago, we are now paying the price for neglecting civil defence and also for refusing to put freedom loving states ahead in the arms
race. The options available to such weak loons are disastrous.
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. TAC DAILY MIRROR, Saturday. Pe ruery 2, 1996,
Daily
THE DAILY PICTURE
10, 062
[[%
Rorslereg at the GPO, 3 a Newspaper,
SAT URDAY,
FEBRUARY 29,
Broadcasting - -Page 20
Mirror
ee WITH THE LARGEST
1036 One Peay | |
NEE SALE
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
EUSTACE ---- Page 8
QUIET CORNER --- 15 DOCTOR'S DIARY-- 17 SHORT STORY---- 19 DOROTHY DIX-<s+- 21 BELINDA ------- 22
Amusements: Page 22
HITLER'S “LET’S B
FRIENDS *
An Exclusive Interview with “Daily Mirror”
“| APPEAL TO REASON”
—_————
assionately ... fervently .:in the plain words of a Man of the People, Adolf Hitler, Leader and Master of Germany, in an exclusive interview with the “Daily Mirror” yesterday, pleaded with the world:— “LET’S BE FRIEND “I appeal to reason in international affairs,” he said. “I want to show that the idea of eternal enmity is wrong. We are not hereditary enemies.” The “Daily Mirror” challenged his views with those in his book, “My Struggle.” “My justifica- tion,” said the Leader, “I shall write in the great book of history.”
Man of Destiny Speaks
—_—_—_— oo By BERTRAND DE JOUVENEL N the room where the destiny of Ger- what is the mast advantageous for my country ? J many ts planned her Man of Destiny cotter ae BEE THING FOR MY sat to receive me, : . Simply dressed, sitting at his dosk, he uaburdened to me his heart... bls hopes a
wis imagine me sd someone quite dif-
ow quite well that I started at the have become the master of Ger-
.. his fears, rnny, t is rather an astonishing achicve- He ceed me keenly for a moment o Ae Bete re must be some extraordinary ... Slowly, this man who secs Into ind, said ‘*Mysticisms, “Yea L know what you ste thintto REEL VS You sav to yoursctt, Hitior makes peace [anne or—?
deel rations Lo us, bul is it in good ith? | —e he, smicere ? 33
“Tustead of giving yourselves up to nsycho- lozical guesses. would you net Co belicr to reason, fo make use of logic ? | r
“This gic, in which the French profess
implicit betief—dors it not lead you to think | 7° “i .s7n
that it would be obviously to the advantage s * Ottees say that my success is due to the
of France and Germany to maintain (riendly mynticioms that [have created. Still others
relations ? dectare that it is due to cyance,
“Would it not be rome fe mr ae “I mis x telt you what has monet me to fr comtlich on new fields « whore to
“Ts it not logical that. I ‘Shouia wish for We
$2 meet
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html
took estes problems appeared
People unders bast
PLEA T0
—————
cir Aighting Ught; his fists clenched.
complicated. German people did not understand them.
“the preferred, th such conditions, to leave
what T am to professional politicians the task of Trecing them from these complications.
“I simplitied (hese problems. 1 reduced
thein to simple terms.
are Germans understood—and they fol-
x the clasewar—that notorious wat
Of the classes-—ws shown to be an absurdity.
“f demanstrated its absurdity and the od met ppcat to thelr reason
ny , oh
é Ned UNDERSTAND: THAT. 06 n people have followed me in a
1 thot fees been tntinitely more roooncileution of Germany and
“By soma the agreement between Germany
(Continued on back page)
"MAKING oR Aver. AL fo) TH 4 AY. RS. ay Ore
Rest of the News
Countess Haugwite-Reventlow, morly Misa Bar! Hutton, the Wool- worth heiress, who gave birth lo a son on Monday, was fast night stated to be gravely Hl after aa operation,
for-
Four Mereines of ¢ Sir Atstea aud Ke
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ailp Express
__ WORLD'S LARGEST DAILY SALE _ Saturday, “October 1, 1938
GET A DAILY EXPRESS
MopEL GLIDER
Designed likes realman. macurriailes
3 ft. Zins. Wing Span. Easy to make and to fly!
9/6 seat Cat tres Str |-
Multitude cheer the
Premicr home and hear h
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Penny
i Rn fo
be ee
“YOU MAY SLEEP QUIETLY— IT IS PEACE FOR OUR TIME”
Mussolini invites him for new talks in yacht next week
DALADIER MAY BE THERE AS WELL
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE, IN THREE CHEERING CROWDS, WELCOMED HOME MR. NEVILLE CHAMBERLAIN, THE PRIME MINISTER OF PEACE, LAST NIGHT. The first was at Heston airport, where he landed irom Munich. The second was at Buckingham Palace, where the Premier and Mrs. Chamberlain went on to the balcony with the King and Queen. The third was at No. 10, Downing-street. There the Premier leaned out of a window and said:—
“This is the second time in our history that there has come back from Germany to Downing-street peace with honour. 1! believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. And now | recommend you to go home and sleep quietly in your beds.”
By GUY EDEN Doily Express Political
Correspondent
§'GNor MUSSOLINI, I understand, has in- vited Mr. Chamberlain to confer with him on various questions of in- terest to Britain and Italy. Mr. Chamberlain intends| to lake 9 short holiday after|
he has act Parliament next German troops ‘aitmcrrasms, $2O iM at noon
the Mediterranean, | * S|
M. Daladier, the French From C, Y, R. THOMPSON, Premier, ts likely to Joln in the LINZ, Saturday Morning. talks, some of which are expected) "7 ERO hour in Adolf Hitler's march on Czecho- to be held in the yacht 4 Slovakia has been fixed for noon today. Final preparations for the “invasion” along several sectors
The demobitisation of the German Army may be expected "
on the south-west frontier were made at the head- hades way | quarters in Linz last night.
as soon as the peace plan ls well ABLE TO RELA | Troops are amar tn this former Austrian where once - 31 ampee (ke streets af «
siyoung man belore he became A student in Vier PAGES EOE weeks they bag a PAGE FOUR , RAGUE mourns; General veraations in Munich they. wi
Syrovy tells the mation: wear thelr black steel helmets. In-| As a soldier I had to choose stead they will probably wear
forage caps. foptets
“We thank you from the bottom of our hearts!’"— Mr, Chamberlain at a window of No. 10.
Ve, Son German PErer nent Chanelier and Oe . Deities Trine Kintelar, eve tat « Meter seeing Sodag wut ary mereed Un reonguising hat Or AGAEL SO oF Anaiecernam reletions 19 of the Tires sepertanse foe the toe eommsrian ant for Bree,
Te coeur Ven ngrennen) signet inet alent (A De angiecborean Mavad Agreement a ayedslie of the dentre cf car two peosien sever to ox We Ar WIth see nebtar mente
Vo are resslted tat the satbet of senevi testo WAALE be Ooo wecnod stopted to dead Wi: ear ether questions Gat aay coscern oat Wwe commie, and ve ate Gearainhd $6 semtions oP
* atTorty te Peewee peesibie accrewe o€ tittarense aod than te gemteitale As samrw the penne af Baroy. 1
jtaey will para mareh, As 4 gesture fol
Vbse atk
Any service required, the tramafer o!
Aephenrden 90, 130»
When Mr, Chamberiain landed at Heston yesterday he waved a
paper over his head for the crowd to see. This is it—the “No
More War™ pact signed by him and Merr Hitler yesterday morning at Munich. —The story and world tributes are on Page Six.
ENCH give German troops
elgarettes across the Slht approved coe frontier, Tie fo ‘Faderen cones PAGE NINE by 8 SHIKAEY| FTE Chamberiains greet my Lendon from Palace a Ce balcony.
or peace. Then there
TWO, COLUMN ONE |=
Hitler told the Premier : |
“Britain should be strong” =
From SELKIRK PANTON Daily Express Sta’ Reporter
BERLIN, friday ELTTLER today realised tine greatest dream of his life, which he put down in “Mein Kampf,” the Nazi“ bible "which he wrote fourteen years ago— peace with the British Empire, eng be and Mr, Chamberiain| #3 | : agreement which)» effect that the great ever be repeated
was represented u a} commission in Ber. Menderson — Rew
Malt an nour tater they met, 90
Poehrersaus, ‘our-Power mi
K place, Dut in Hitler's Ave
sed fiat In the Prins Regenten-
ind settiemens in Europe Three Hons will now be settled. Oer-
Queen Mary: laryngitis
‘The following statement wes issued {rom Marlborough House Jast night:—
Mary, Js suffering. trom of lary: and
“TERRIERS” | DEMOBBED
PEMOBI SATION of Tereitoris's of amti- aircraft and coast defence batteries, ealled up om Mon- day, began last night Mest of thowe In the Londée area returned hosee bate bast nlght The War Office anneanced: <A Belted period of leave be nel ind cont mits of the Terri: torial Army “All equipesent will remain tn position with the mecessary ruards and sentrien.”
id abd repeated yesterday. paver mobilise |'9)
made is clear to Mr, Cham: Li at oF sre
that
u lotger in Munsch.. This morning ‘clales he telephoned: "Could you see mein at41.30
lowing of very hot Sulds. \Qoten Mary is seventy-one years od '
Poland sends ultimatum
Deity Express Staf Reporter WARSAW, Saturday morning. CZECHO- -SLOVAKIA turned to face a new menace last night—a Note which reached Prague at 10.7 p.m. threatening that Polish troops might march against the Czech Republic
soem. LATEST
The Note insists on the
immediate evacuation of || SENTRAL so00 all ch territory in- habited by Poles. It is FRONTIER SHOTS understood that the time | AT 1 am
limit expires at noon. ir rife fre rey Amida! official
aki ts We are at o atlence, Responsibility lies ragae The Pollan receipt of a letter 19 p.m accepting
circles 10 be “abeciutely umeatis-
Fog ti FORGET THE CRISIS 7, Oxzeaay inte . BUT REMEMBER TO
ne Se perizecamip. to
iMG Sa SS ™, & PUT YOUR CLOCK
that in ey ee fe peter ia se “BACK TONIGHT Ph ‘of this.” salt &
oreign er apokeman tn Warsaw last) QUMMER TIME ends tonight, Put your clocks back one
- Pact Two, COL. FOUR | hour.
The White Hone, Werther, Wiltshire
“That's one of the famous white horses of England.”
“But not so famous as the White Horse of Scotland. Famous for its delicate and subtle flavour. Famous for its glow without a trace of fire. Famous as the whisky that's fine as a fine liquesr.”
= ~ they ask for
WHITE HORSE
as a matter of course
Screw-cap flasks on sale everywhere
a
Image ID: ESGGW6
www.alamy.com
ABOVE: Western nuclear disarmament from 31,255 US warheads in 1966 to 3,750 in 2020, is a repeat of the weapons effects
exaggerations for disarmament propaganda, a lying disaster which allowed a defeated Germany in 1918 to rearm and start WWII, as these
quotations from an earlier blog post here prove, which also quotes Kissinger (before he was corrupted by political expediency) explaining
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FIGURE 2 “The Size of the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile, 1945-2020 we: (OR, WHY PUTIN FEELS CONFIDENT INVADING UKRAINE JUST AS HITLER INVADED HIS NEIGHBOURS WHILE PACIFISTS DISARMED THE UK UNTIL 1935 THEN REARMED SLOWER THAN -La THE NAZIS, TO AVOID PROVOKING A SECOND WORLD WAR BY WINNING AN ARMS RACE.) Hou 35,000 =—— Number of weapons Cler Hitlh 30.000 -@— Maximum warheads [31,255] Gen Goti 25,000 Trou disa S 20,000 ww. S Mini £ @— End of the Cold War eis o S 15,000 cad 10,000 “Ho Total warpeads_ that as of 2020 ryit 5,000 quai peo| 0 1 I 1 l | l 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020- Bri radi Fiscal Year
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NOTE: The figure depicts active and inactive warheads. Approximately 2,000 additional nuclear warheads are retired and awaiting dismantlement. thin!
DIAGRAM ABOVE IS FROM FRANK G. KLOTZ AND ALEXANDRA T. EVANS, MODERNIZING THE U.S. the | NUCLEAR TRIAD, RAND CORP., 2022, document: PE-A1434-1, 2022 ov https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1434-1.html Pr ANNUAL NATIONAL DEFENCE EXPENDITURES will
(millions of dollars) (spe
Novi
Country 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 that exis
Britain 4: 480 595 846 1263 1693 1817 Germany 299 38] 2600 3600 4000 = 4400
Source: J. F. Kennedy, Why England Slept, Sidgwick & Jackson, London, 1962, p. 184.
“If we handle Hitler right, my belief is that he will become gradually more pacific. ... | would feel confident if profession and Jews.” - Sir Neville Henderson, racist British Ambassador to Berlin, February 1939 telegram ti “Hitler has gone straight off the deep end again ... What distresses me more than anything else is the handle ...” - Sir Neville Henderson, racist British Ambassador to Berlin, telegram to the British Foreign Secretary, 15 SOURCE: H.M.S.O., Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, London, 1949, Third Series, IV, pages 59
“At no time did Hitler threaten to initiate war against France and England. He simply threatened to ‘retaliate’
Munich crisis had an incredible sequel in March 1939. ... Hitler occupied the rest of Czechslovakia. The techn prototype for a future aggressor armed with H-bombs that it is of extreme value to all who are concerned witl peaceful and secure world ..." - Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War, Princeton University Press, 1960, p. 40
«... before World War Il, for example, many of the staffs engaged in estimating the effects of bombing over-es| was one of the main reasons that at the Munich Conference and earlier occasions the British and the French « firm or fighting. Incidentally, these staff calculations were more lurid than the worst imaginations of fiction.” the 1959 hearings on the Biological and Environmental Effects of Nuclear War, page 883.
“As late as 1934, after Hitler had been in power for almost a year and a half, [British Prime Minister] Ramsey the French that they should disarm themselves by reducing their army by 50 per cent, and their air force by 7£ and his supporters urged one of the least aggressive nations in Europe to disarm itself to a level equal with th Germans [exactly what the pacifists did when getting Ukraine to disarm its nuclear deterrent 30 years ago!] .
single group I think that these men of good will can be charged with causing World War Il. [Emphasis by Herm
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how tactical nuclear weapons can safely be used to deter invasions: ‘The Hungarian revolution of October and November 1956 demonstrated the difficulty faced even by a vastly superior army in attempting to dominate hostile territory. The [Soviet Union] Red Army finally had to concentrate twenty-two divisions in order to crush a practically unarmed population. ... The high casualty estimates for nuclear war are based on the assumption that the most suitable targets are ... cities ... The elimination of area targets will place an upper limit on the size of weapons it will be profitable to use. Since fall-out becomes a serious problem [i.e. fallout contaminated areas which are so large that thousands of people would need to evacuate or shelter indoors for up to two weeks] only in the range of explosive power of 500 kilotons and above, it could be proposed that no weapon larger than 500 kilotons will be employed unless the enemy uses it first. Concurrently, the United States could take advantage of a new development which significantly reduces fall-out by eliminating the last stage of the fission-fusion-fission process.’ - Dr Henry
Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, Harper, New York, 1957, pp. 180-3, 228-9.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: (1). Thank you to http://www.militarystory.org/nuclear-detonations-in-urban-and-suburban-areas/ for re-blogging a typical post from this glasstone.blogspot.com blog, kicking out the lies from under secrecy obsessed loons who want disarmament to start WWIII.
(2). Thank you to https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/02/are-nuclear-weapons-100-times-less.html for reblogging: "Are [strategic, not tactical] Nuclear Weapons 100 times Less Effective Than Supposed? Nigel B. Cook’s Glasstone.Blogspot Blog has beautiful coverage of many nuclear topics here. http://glasstone.blogspot.co.uk/ Cook is a master researcher who digs up incredible piles of research on all topics nuclear and the following is digest of various writings of his gathered for easy access centered on the remarkable thesis that the effects of nuclear weapons, while literally awesome, have been exaggerated or misunderstood to an even
greater extent, with perhaps very considerable military consequences."
TIPS: There is compendium debunking commonplace anti-nuclear CND disarmament propaganda, exaggerations and fake news on nuclear weapons effects and deterrent capabilities linked here. Also, each post on this blog can be viewed in either a simple format, e.g. for this current post, https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html is the simple (faster loading) format, or you can view it (slower loading) in a fancy format by adding: ?m=1 to the end of the URL, e.g.
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html?m=1
"The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances ... at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994... signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States ... prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against
Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons." - Wiki.
NATO needs to come to its senses and rearm to deter WWIII instead of stupidly leaving Putin with more nuclear weapons than anyone else, to intimidate like Hitler (see 1930s newspapers below, which spell out the problem plainly). The problem is, the media is dominated by nuclear liars just as it was dominated by gas war liars in the 1930s, who encouraged war while pretending to be doing the opposite. Fighting a conventional war using Ukraine as proxy, while having an inferior nuclear stockpile, is hardly credible nuclear deterrence (please click here for our brief declassified data debunking Glasstone's lying data on nuclear weapons effects) . Also see the compendium linked here for more detail on the actual declassified effects found in Hiroshima, contrary to Glasstone's very deceptive treatment. Please also click here for our declassified 4069-pages compendium of nuclear weapons deterrence data, debunking the Ukraine's "security through nuclear disarmament" myth YEARS AGO!
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Biden confuses Iran and Ukraine in State of the Union gaffe
‘Sharp as a tack’: Joe Biden confuses Ukraine and Afghanistan
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xtra US troops in Eastern Europe
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11/05/2023, 08:43 NRoVALCIED COPY
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FIGURE 7-33. TEWA DEVICE (D-3, HOB = 8 2’ ABOVE WATERLINE) FIGURE 6-8 MAR
(MAI Size comparison of a tactical Mk9 nuclear shell to deter the invasions that start wars (photo on right includi book Reflections of a Nuclear Weaponeer, 1988) with the deliverable Mk41 shown on board a barge anchorec "dirty" 87% fission Redwing-Tewa 5.01 megatons thermonuclear test. Notice the people in each photo for si the 5 megaton H-bomb has size!
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Figure 2. Fault Tree for Russian Strategic Launch After U.S. Escalation Past Russian Nuclear Threshold
Russian strategic launch after Russian tactical nuclear use in response to U.S. escalation past Russian nuclear threshold in conventional conflict
Conventional conflict begins between Russian and U.S. forces
U.S. escalation event occurs and results in Russian tactical nuclear
launch
Russian tactical nuclear launch in response to inadvertent escalation by U.S. past Russian nuclear threshold
Russian strategic nuclear lau! after Russian tactical nuclear launch
Russian tactical nuclear launi response to accidental escala by U.S. past Russian nuclear threshold
Conventional conflict breaks out between Russian ally/partner in “near abroad" and U.S., and conflict grows to involve both Russian and U.S. forces
Conventional conflict breaks out between Russia and U.S. ally/partner in “near abroad," and conflict grows to involve both Russian and U.S. forces
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RAND PE191-2
"During the Cold War, it was often assumed that the use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons would eventually escalate to East-West strategic nuclear exchanges (Quinlivan and Oliker, 2011, p. 72). ... there seems to be a recognition within Russia of brinkmanship hazards—namely, that Russian nuclear use could get out of
hand and result in further escalation (Quinlivan and Oliker, 2011, p. 72)" - Anthony Barrett, 2016 RAND Corp RAND-PE-191-TSF, False Alarms, True Dangers? - Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S.-Russian Nuclea
ABOVE: "During the Cold War, it was often assumed that the use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons would eventually escalate to East-West strategic nuclear exchanges (Quinlivan and Oliker, 2011, p. 72). ... there seems to be a recognition within Russia of brinkmanship hazards—namely, that Russian nuclear use could get out of hand and result in further escalation (Quinlivan and Oliker, 2011, p. 72)." - Anthony Barrett, 2016 RAND Corp report RAND-PE-191-TSF, False Alarms, True Dangers? - Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S.-Russian Nuclear War, page 7.
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ABOVE: W54 Davy Crockett tactical nuclear deterrent of approximately 0.02kt yield and 20ft burst altitude, tested in front of Robert
Kennedy, Attorney General, in the final Nevada atmospheric nuclear weapon trials to deter invasions: 2,100 were deployed in the 1960s, successfully deterring a Russian invasion. But ALL tactical nuclear weapons were removed in the 90s after false propaganda from appeasers, leaving a dangerous gap in the spectrum of deterrence. (Photo credits: US National Archives photos above taken on 14 July 1962 show tactical 0.02kt+/-10% yield W54 Davy Cockett nuclear weapon projective M388 on M29 launcher at Nevada Test Range, with two soldiers from the Heavy Weapons Platoon, 1st Battalion, 12th Infantry, 4th Infantry Division, US Army.) The Ukraine invasion is an invasion deliberately caused by the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed on 5 Dec 1994 to remove the nuclear deterrent from Ukraine to prevent war. Like the disarmament of the UK up to 1935 to guarantee "peace in our time", loads of excuses are used to try to justify weakness and enemy aggression, by left wing warmongers who profit by causing war with its refugee crises with financial and humanitarian disasters. Until the so-called peacemakers disarmed Ukraine of its 176 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers with some 1,240 warheads, leaving Ukraine to make improvised Molotov cocktail petrol bombs (polystyrene dissolved in petrol in a bottle) to try to protect its kids from Russia, Russia was deterred from invading Ukraine by reliable nuclear deterrence. Ukraine had experts and still does have expertise on servicing and using those nuclear weapons - in evidence, before they were invaded, we bought the confidential Russian nuclear weapons employment manuals (LINKED HERE) from the Ukrainian military on ebay. In
fact, Russian nuclear weapons are more straightforward and easier to service and employ than American nuclear weapons, so the
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lie that the Ukrainian nuclear weapons in 1994 couldn't be serviced by Ukraine - which has Europe's largest nuclear reactor and
all the nuclear expertise that goes with it - is just that, a lie by anti-nuclear folk.
"In the event that deterrence fails, this Perspective also finds a number of factors that could undermine NATO’s ability to respond to a crisis. As repeated RAND wargames have shown, Russia could quickly overwhelm any or all of its Baltic neighbors (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), which are not sufficiently supported by NATO allies to stop a concerted thrust into their territory ... In dozens of RAND-run wargames involving a variety of players, strategies, and variations in initial starting conditions, the longest it took Russian forces to reach the outskirts of the capitals of Estonia and Latvia in a short-notice invasion was 60 hours (Ref. 19)."' - Clint Reach, Edward Geist, Abby Doll, and Joe Cheravitch, Competing with Russia Militarily - Implications of Conventional and Nuclear Conflicts, RAND Corp document PE-330-A, 2021, pages 2 and 9."
"It would be disastrous to have a conspicuous gap in the spectrum of deterrents and capabilities." - quotation from RAND Corporation's Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War, Princeton University Press, 1960, page 286. (Any gap in the "spectrum of deterrents and capabilities" is exploited by enemies, just as any gaps in a prison wall are not ignored but seized upon by escaping prisoners. A gap in the spectrum was created by the 1990s removal of tactical nuclear deterrents that deterred/stopped invasions, on the basis of populist lying anti-nuclear propaganda that the world would be safer as a result. It was only safer for warmongers, invaders and dictators. The world was in fact a "nuclear unarmed" place until 1945, but that didn't prevent nuclear weapons being made and used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. So much for peace or even an aversion of nuclear war escalation risks in war, through nuclear disarmament. Also note that those nuclear weapons were made by a democracy in secret, and during a world war. How much easier was it for nations with smaller economies to produce nuclear weapons in secret during peacetime? It was certainly cheaper, since none could have afforded the billions spent by America's Manhattan project during WWII. So much for nuclear disarmament preventing war or even preventing nuclear warfare during a war that began in a world free from nuclear weapons. Again, when WWII began, there were no nuclear weapons. The nuclear weapons were made and used during the war itself, being made in secret by a democracy, and under a Democratic Party president. If this doesn't fit in with the nuclear
disarmament hype you have been told, then you know they are liars.)
As the illustrations below from Dr Shelton's Reflections of Nuclear Weaponeer, a shelter well within the fireball radius of the first multimegaton hydrogen bomb survived 330 psi peak overpressure, and a 1.4 megaton W49 thermonuclear warhead detonated at 400 km altitude above Johnston Island as the Starfish prime test on 9 July 1962 produced EMP effects 800 miles away in Hawaii (colour photos on the front page of the 9 July 1962 Honolulu Star Bulletin, mentioning that streetlights were turned off and air raid sirens were activated - due to EMP). The Russians later, on 22 October 1962, performed such an EMP demonstration with a 300 kt warhead detonated at 290 km altude, so they could use this type of "nuclear weapon demonstration" threat as an alternative to usual disarmament propaganda about nuclear weapons automatically being used to kill people by Hiroshima-type low altitude air or
surface bursts:
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Shelton, Reflections page 6-7:
_ ~~» Before and == = after photos of Station 200 shelter surviving 330psi, 9000 feet from 10.4 megatons Mike
SOURCE: Dr Shelton, Reflections of a Nuclear Weaponeer, p5-40, Fig 5-33 (view NW from Station 200 to shot cab, D-1) & 5-34 (view NW from Station 200, D+2).
RIGHT: Dr John Malik entering Station 520 shelter on Ruchi Island, 2.3km West of 10.4 megatons Mike, 4 days after burst (12 R/hr gamma radiation level): Shelton p5-41, Fig. 5-35.
RUCHI ISLAND WAS 2.3 KM WEST OF GROUND ZERO AT ABOUT 3000 R/HR AT ONE HOUR
35. IVY MIKE POST-SHOT STATION 520 ON RUCHI ISLAND; JOHN MALIK ON REENTRY OND +4 {5 NOVEMBER 1952), DOSE RATE OF 3000 F/HR AT 1 HR HAD DECREASED TO ABOUT 12 R/HR
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FIGURE 11-28. STARFISH STARFISH EVENT FROM CHRISTMAS ISLAND
Russia also
EVENT FROM CHRISTMAS ISLAND
FIGURE 11-29.
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(150 kilotons yield)
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| Umer ABOVE: in the Cold War, Russia was deterred from invasions using a variety of tactical nuclear weapons including 2,100 W54 Davy Crockett tactical nuclear weapons, and later - after the Russian invasion of Afghanistan began - 550 deployed W79 thermonuclear 1.1 kt W79 neutron bombs (to achieve a significant fusion yield with the very brief compressions available with a sub-kiloton fission yield, a second stage capsule of tritium and deuterium gas had to be employed, instead of the solid lithium-6 deuteride secondary stages that require neutron fission of the lithium-6 to produce tritium, prior to fusion; the x-ray compression at such a low yield was too brief to allow the fission stage neutrons to arrive at the secondary stage in time to fission enough lithium-6 prior to the x- ray compression pulse). The fission primary stage of the W79 shell uses small-diameter linear implosion system invented for a variety of purposes, both nuclear and non-nuclear, by US Government explosives expert Bernard Drimmer, and has now been declassified and published (after decades of being kept secret) as US Patent US5450794A/en, presented without the central fissile core for compression, as merely a method to increase to a maximum the efficiency of underwater explosives (just sticking a detonator into a lump of explosive leads to incomplete burning since some of the explosive ends up being blasted outwards into cold water before detonating; using the implosion system with the burning wave going inwards therefore maximises efficiency for non-nuclar torpedoes). The W79 deterred both massed troop invasions and also tank and APC invasions, since 14.1 MeV D+T fusion
reaction neutrons penetrate armour very efficiently (even without the removable fusion capsules, the neutrons and gamma rays from 0.8 kt
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pure fission yield of the W79 was still a highly effective deterrent against Russian tanks; the fusion capsule reportedly added 0.3 kt of fusion yield, 80% of this or over 0.2 kt in the form of 14.1 MeV neutrons). Click for a Secret (now declassified) Los Alamos report detailing why we need the W79 enhanced neutron tactical nuclear weapons to deter Russian expansionism (report LA-12063-MS "The Future of Non-Strategic Nuclear Forces: Are These Capabilities Still Needed," dated 1991, LINKED HERE), and linked here with a previous slightly different declassified version linked here (which gives the names of the LA-12063-MS report authors, unlike the OpenNet version), ignored by left wing (discussed on previous blog post linked here - a brief extract from this 74-pages long report, containing detailed evidence that tactical nuclear weapons kept the peace in the Cold War much to the fury of Russia, is shown below; notice that tactical nuclear weapons are asymmetric in that they are more useful to deter invasions than to cause
invasions, hence they are a stabilizing influence in crisis instability despite left wing propaganda to the contrary):
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he old raison d'etre for US NSNF: the Soviet Threat_
1. Democracies and economies of Western Europe 2. The overriding threat: the Soviet Union
3. NATO was unable to provide sufficient conventional forces
4. Deployment of nuclear weapons to Europe created an extended deterrence umbrella for conventional force deficiencies
a
PAGE 18:
The presence of NSNF in Europe contributed to the long peace of 45 years
These weapons helped to deter the Soviet Union from Initiating nuclear coercion or overt aggression against the NATO alllance
This occurred In spite of, or perhaps because of: Ambiguities in NATO declaratory policies such as Flexible Response
Difficulties in developing battlefield nuclear weapon doctrine and concepts
Questions in survivability of NATO main operating bases
Unclear or unfavorable results from NATO nuclear exercises and war games,
We argue that the existence of theater nuclear weapons was a major factor
for the past 45-year peace in Europe. Prior to the stabilizing effects of
NATO, due in part to its nuclear weapons, the European continent had been
the scene of several major wars and periods of crises, largely stemming from
rampant nationalism. The bipolar Cold War stabilized Europe, and the
mass destruction available from nuclear weapons made a European general
war too horrible, The evidence of NSNF contributing to the long peace of the
past 45 vears ie nerenaciuva: 299/510
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rere ae yee as prurouaolve,
- The Soviets in their own writings admit ta unfawarahla "aneealatinn 26 6-—_-
RERBRRRERR UR SRRRRRER REG nem he LA-9004 — EE SRET—D00033413 Nuclear Weapon Se =
by -Sigme-+ Johndale C. This document consists of 10 pages i No. OX of 79 copies, Series A ABSTRACT DELETED
device on tank crews is shown to be consistent systems. Estimates of collateral damage indic close proximity to civilian populations with r
The Ultra-Low Yield Antitank Weapon The Teeny Tiny Tacnuke (U) REDACTED COPY JanRdaiee Galeen
THE W79 1
The W79 is an 8-in., enhanced radiation, artillery fired atomic projectile. The device is in production and will en- ter the stockpile in the early 1980s. It is about 44 cm long and weighs about 200 Ib complete with its arming, fusing, and firing system and its rocket assist. The range of the projectile when fired from an 8-in, howitzer is about 32 km.
2<@2nF 86 5
“SECRE
JUN 2 3 1998
DELETED Whether a device (
with a lethal range as great as the W79 is an optimal weapon against massed formations of tanks is much 1 debated; nevertheless, it remains a significant achieve- 1 ment of the technological community to get such an ad ! vanced device into the tactical stockpile. 4 The principal purpose of this report is to proposea =! complement to the W79 for the one-on-one engagements‘ with tanks that will result from their forced dispersal. '
| __DEPARTMIRWL.QF ENERGY DECLASSIFICA pI
UMBERCSD | ATION
iRETAl ICATIONCHANGED TO: 9 DOE CLASSIFIEDINFD |
(INNA Aa 3 9338 00363 1701 SCANNED
~
THE ONE-ON-ONE ENGAGEMENT
A war with a technologically sophisticated enemy such as the Soviet Union will present extremely stressing countermeasures to high technology weapons systems. | Although I have great faith that precision guided muni t tions of extraordinary accuracy and durability will be t developed, the survival of such devices against counter t measures and in the severe environment of a nuclear war ‘
j t
University of California
LOS ALAMOS SCIENTIFIC LABORATORY
Post Office Box 1663 Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545
RESTRICTE
Derivative Classifier E. M. Sandoval Classification Analyst
inistrative and Criminal is certainly unproven. Almost any beam-riding weapon,
using a laser or radar guidance system, is vulnerable to
4
“ror Teeter ete Te ea Tee ge
Another declassified Los Alamos neutron bomb report, Johndale C. Solem's 1982 Secret Los Alamos report LA-9004 (LINKED HERE) on the neutron bomb, The ultra-low yield antitank weapon, the teeny tiny tacnuke, complete with declassified markings showing it was "Nuclear Weapon Data Sigma 1: Critical Nuclear Weapon Design Information", in a limited edition of just 79 printed copies, secret (now declassified with deletions of design information) describes the kiloton W79 neutron warhead (44" long [note that there is a typing error, incorrectly stating it is 44 cm long in LA-9004], 200 lbs including firing system, capable of being fired 32 km from a 8" howitzer), and explains correctly that the whole point of such weapons is to deter the concentrated blitzkrieg assaults that started WWI in 1914 (the invasion of Belgium by concentrated force) and WWII in 1939 (the invasion of Poland by concentrated force). The principle of concentration of force can be deterred with nuclear weapons, thus preventing the invasions that trigger wars. By forcing enemies to disperse their forces, any attacks that are made can be dealt with using conventional weapons like handheld anti-tank rockets (no use against concentrated firepower, but useful against dispersed forces), preventing invasion and WWIII (the map below is from the 1st Cold War, but demonstrates the kind of threat possible after
completion of invasions of Ukraine and its neighbour/NATO supporter Poland):
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TM 23-200/OPNAV INSTRUCTION 03400,1C/AFM 136-1/FMFM 11-2
THIS PUBLICATION SUPERSEDES TM 23-200, OPNAV INSTRUCTION 03400.1B, AFM 136-1/NAVMC 1104 REV, NOVEMBER 1957, INCLUDING CHANGE 1, 24 JUNE 1960 AND CHANGE 2, 3 OCTOBER 1960 THERETO,
R. 83 CAPABILITIES OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS [U]
CLASSIICATION CANCELLED WITH DELETIONS BY TY, OF
wosy a Era DNA SwisHet
Dok-Ang-ays, 3-11-40 TIN, US DOE *RCHIVES
826 U.S. ATOMIC ENERGY RG___eeemisston-————
United Scares Govemm ent Printing Office Washington: 1964
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Table 7-5 Dose Transmission Factors |
Geometry Initial
Foxholes? 0.20 Underground—3 ft 0.04-0.0 Builtup city area (in open) — Frame house 0.80 Basement Bid peed 2 O08 ee ees 0.05-0.5 Multistory building:
Upper... 8 ee eee 0.9
Lower... 6... ee 0.3-0.6 Blockhouse walls:
52 | 1 ee 0.1
DS AM oie bo rend oe eye aee oe 0.05-0.0
BAAN. oe ea ent be 4 Has oA AEs 0.01-0.0 Factory, 200 x 200 ft —_ Shelter, partly above grade:
With earth cover—2 ft 0.02-0.0
With earth cover—3 ft 0.01-0.0
DENMARK “)_) Probable Axes \ Da) > of Attack AN, YY ey Baltic Sea 50 miles 0 50 kilometers: QO (F~> North Sea ; ( Polish/Soviet forces X \ Hamburg = <\ YQ Hamburg) & YRS NETHERLANDS OA / re i POLAND c ~) \ L 4 Helmsteds \ S % a ) c~ Q f ‘ : ‘ : +‘ \ NV zg +t ( \ Sj} xxxx \ j © Géttingen 24 \. § 6 Kasselo ¢ 1st Guards tai - \ c g ea @° !
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RADIATION IMPLODED NEUTRON GUN "ALARM CLOCK" DESIGN : FISSION (Pu-239 spark plug core, Li6D PRIMARY layer around it, and U ablator)
“Peanut-shaped™ .
outer case minimises ca volume to maximise the x-ray coupling energy density (energy/volume)
Ri bl le Pu-239 Cylind high explosi' W54 2-point prolate spheroid implosion warhead aa wa insta! aaa
[)] High explosive Beryllium BM Plutonium-239
W79 Enhanced neutron weapon with cylindrical line Comparison of 1961 W54 with 1981 W79 warhead implosion fission primary stage and removable 2nd
"Denying an aggressor force the use of massed formations of armor is the single most important aspect of the W79."
LA-9004 then goes on to suggest a lower yield version of the W79 for use against individual tanks, like the Kennedy era portable 0.02 kt W5S4 that could be fired by individual soldiers, air burst at 15 metres altitude to eliminate local fallout, blast and heat collateral damage.
Page 5:
"Tank crews within 25 m of the weapon would be immediately incapacitated. Civilian populations 300 m from the point of detonation would be completely safe. ... Beyond 300 m, exposed personnel might be temporarily blinded from looking directly at the detonation, but would suffer no burns to exposed skin. ... The effect of blast on civilian structures near the battlefield would be trivial. Three hundred metres from the point of detonation windows would rattle but not break. ... the fallout would be expected to be confined to the battlefield itself. ... The principal advantage of such a device in reducing collateral damage from local fallout is that it simply does not produce much
in the way of fission fragments or activated weapon debris."
LA-9004 then points out, on pages 7-8, that such a defensive low yield weapon with no significant risk of collateral damage is of no
significant use to terrorists, contrasted to easy-to-procure alternatives.
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SEGRERS. = Los Alamos report LA-4350-MS yf
: https://www.osti.gov/opennet/detz LA-4350-MS RIGHT: a Secret
neutron bomb report
PROCEEDINGS OF THE shows that 1 kt of T- TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS SYMPOSIUM D fusion yield
detonated at 750 108 feet altitude gives
Held at 800,000 rads (85% ‘ Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory : ss ” of the University of California being high energy Los Alamos, New Mexico neutrons) at 1000 September 3-5, 1969 feet ground range. zl 10" Cecil I. Hudson, Jr. F B10? University of California : Lawrence Radiation Laboratory “- ~ % 10° : 10 1 0 CLEAN NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE RESEARCH APPLICABLE TO
TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS 9%)
ABOVE: the 405-pages, originally Secret 1969 Proceedings of the Tactical Nuclear Weapons Symposium, Los Alamos document LA- 4350-MS, has been declassified and is available on Opennet (pdf is LINKED HERE). For | kiloton of D-T fusion air burst at 750 feet altitude (for the W79 this fusion yield is reportedly 0.3 kt, so you multiply the following doses by 0.3, before adding on the fission dose from 0.8 kt of fission), Dr Hudson's Lawrence Radiation weapons lab article "Clean nuclear explosive research applicable to tactical nuclear weapons (Secret-RD)", applying clean fusion tests research to peace-making deterrent purpose in the 1969 conference LA-4350- MS, shows that the unshielded dose at a 1,000 ft ground radius or range (i.e., distance from ground zero, not the slant distance from bomb) is 800,000 R (85% being neutrons), falling to 100,000 R at 2,000 feet (75% being high energy neutrons, with the rest being high energy gamma rays from inelastic neutron scattering by the air), and 10,000 R at 3,000 ft radius, but a relatively trivial 10 R at 7,000 ft radius, preventing collateral damage to nearby civilians. The U.S. Defense Nuclear Agency assessed that immediate permanent incapacitation for all tasks occurs at 18,000 R, or 8,000 R for physically demanding tasks, while 3,000 R produces immediate temporary incapacitation. The original 1972 secret Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons DNA-EM-1 gives initial radiation data for 8 designs of nuclear warhead, but it was revised and expanded to 13 designs in the 1984 edition. However, the neutron outputs from three of
these are practically identical: nuclear warhead types 4 and 7 (1-30 kt boosted two-point implosion and 1-10 kt multipoint implosion) and
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11 (30-300 kt cleaner tactical nuclear warhead), all giving about 83.6 rads per kiloton at 1 km ground range for a surface burst on unobstructed silicate soil in sea level density air, plus about 28 rads/kt of secondary gamma rays (the fission product initial radiation dose is independent of bomb design details apart from fission yield and total yield, being 19.3, 332 and 13,000 rads for 100% fission total yields of 1, 10 and 100 kt). For comparison, nuclear warhead type 13 in EM-1, the 1-2 kt enhanced neutron warhead produces about 20 times that dose (1,660 rads/kt of neutrons and 450 rads/kt of air secondary gamma if surface burst; a 1 kt "type 13" neutron bomb air burst at 500 m altitude gives a dose at ground zero of 170,000 rads of neutrons plus 27,200 rads of secondary gamma rays, according to EM-1). At the other end of the scale, the lowest neutron dose, just 0.666 rads, is produced by the type 10 in EM-1 (the low-yield fission primary stage "dial a yield" option of a B61 thick-cased thermonuclear weapon having multiple yield options). This is because the outer casing on a weapon with high yield options absorbs most of the neutrons from the primary stage, and thereby shows that you cannot simply use the
low-yield option on a B61 as a replacement for tactical nuclear weapons like neutron bombs.
Weapon Overpressure | ae le-Point stant Range — a — Yield (psi) urst Height (m) ree Secondary Fission-Prodt (m) Gamma Rays Gamma Ray 40 kiloton 5 1210 2358 ~l 4 <1 10 900 1470 200 320 45 15 785 1204 1,300 1,300 200 20 720 1053 3,700 3,000 560 30 625 879 12,000 8,000 1,600 70 440 587 85,000 40,000 10,000 1¢c0 410 §28 350,000 55,000 15,000 300 kiloton 5 2350 4624 10 1760 2884 1 5 2.5 i) 1530 2362 11 40 25 20 1400 2064 60 150 100 30 1220 1715 430 670 560 10 860 1150 12,000 7,800 8,400 100 800 1037 24,000 13,000 14,000
Air burst relationships between yield, distance, peak blast overpressure, and the initial neutro! FROM Shielding Against Initial Radiations from Nuclar Weapons, https://www.osti.gov/serviets.
Note that once NATO C3] command is neutralised by Russian nuclear forces, e.g. EMP high altitude burst effects if not blast and nuclear radiation from surface or low altitude bursts, blitzkrieg by troops protected by armour enables rapid invasions, even in fallout radiation areas (tanks and APCs offer good shielding against the low energy gamma rays from fallout, unlike the higher energy initial flash of gamma rays and neutrons). When on 8 December 1991, the presidents of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine dissolved the USSR, the Soviet military was 3.7 million strong. "From 1945 to 1948, the Soviet Armed Forces were reduced from about 11.3 million to about 2.8 million men", while the Soviet Union actually increased in size, as puppet governments were installed across half of Europe, despite the American nuclear weapons monopoly until 1949. Today, with the tactical nuclear deterrent removed from Europe, it is only necessary to blow up the military and political bases in Europe to destroy its capacity to harm Russia by economic warfare and military support to enemies of Russia. A business which puts its rivals out of operation becomes a monopoly. It doesn't necessarily have to send in huge numbers of "boots on the ground" to physically occupy all the destroyed rival business offices in order to succeed in "winning" the war; remember that in both the Third Reich and USSR/Warsaw Pact/Iron Curtain era, occupied countries were put under puppet governments (Vichy France, etc.) in a thinly camouflaged effort to portray the occupation as a mutually cooperative "peace
initiative" (i.e., "you will do was we say, then we won't shoot you and blow your cities up, how's that for peacekeeping collaboration?").
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X-ray mirroring: secondary stage 7
»
Capsule with , Ablator, low-density / ablator and fuel
/ foam or solid : *_~ Solid or liquid fuel
~Gas al vapou pressure of solid or liquid fuel
Hohiraum
_» Blowoff
nf Inward transported thermal energy
Hot spot AR
Temperature
4 => t ik Proposed ICF capsules are imploded by ablation of an outer shell, Ignition occurs in a cent tmosphere . 4 . amespnet Compression ignition fusion burn propagates out through the main mass of D-T fuel. Figure 1
HYBRID-E I
Hohlraum wall
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LEFT: “Hohlraum design for larger-scale caps 1 from “Design of inertial fusion implosions r the burning plasma regime", by A. L. Kritche Young, and G. B. Zimmerman, published on 2 2022, Nature Physics volume 18, pages 251-:
This paper explains principles relevant to nu weapons secondary stage development: "The created when the outer layers of the capsule containing nuclear fuel are ablated by an int: radiation bath that is generated ... inside of i depleted uranium X-ray conversion cavity ca ‘hohlraum’. The remaining capsule mass and accelerated towards the centre of the DT ga: extreme implosion velocities of nearly 400 ki stagnation, the kinetic energy of the implodi and DT fuel is converted into internal energy fuel layer surrounding a central lower densit where most of the fusion reactions occur. Sy compression of the DT fuel surrounding the f essential ... before the system explodes and cools as it expands, as well as achieving ade areal densities required for sufficient alpha ¢ This redeposition of alpha-particle energy ba hot spot leads to further fusion reactions anc neutron yield.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-021-0’
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Declassified patent: https://patents.google.com/patent/US:
(linear implosion devices alse used in non-nuclear torpedce Fissile Core High Explosive
Slow Explosives Hollow Core "Pit"
Inert Wave Shaper
\ : Detonator LINEAR /d
IMPLOSION
Example Detonation Fronts Emerging From Around Wave Shapers
‘ackage: Fast Explosives Tamper ALL OF THESE 2-POINT IGNITION SYSTEMS REQUIRE SMAL| nation (Beryllium) (SMALLER X-UNIT CAPACITORS). MORE X-RAYS LEAK FROIN
THE THREE DIFFERENT TYPES OF 1950s LLNL SMALL-DIAMETER PRIMARY STAGES SUITABI SOURCES CREDIT: above left, http://andstillipersist.com/2009/11/iran-closer-to-the-bomb-than
above central, https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/News/DoSuitcaseNukesE)
above right, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swan_(nuclear_primary)#/media/F
To give some idea of the complexity (the diagrams above are open-source, unclassified, not to scale, and demonstrating principal concepts pictorially rather than as design blueprints) of the compact 1950s designs of tactical warheads that now form the primary stages in American two-stage missile warheads, please see the biography of John S. Foster, Jr., the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory physicist who led the designs of the compact primary stages needed for compact SLBM and MIRVed ICBM warheads. The quotations about the history of the modern primary designs that follow are from T. F. Ramos, Call Me Johnny, Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory, report LLNL-BOOK-783447, 2019:
"Much of the effort to design an atomic device relied on using a computer program, or code, to guide the designers. The group’s computer code support came from Bob LeLevier and Chuck Leith. Leith was a real computer pioneer. He had written out the Laboratory’s first codes on one of the world’s first computers, the UNIVAC. The physicist Jim Wilson, who was a distinguished graduate from UC Berkeley and a member of T Division, was yet another code developer, and became Johnny’s technical leader. In 1954, in a series of nuclear tests called Operation Castle, the Laboratory had once again fielded a shot that failed. This was a test of a Megaton Group secondary. It was the third successive nuclear test failure of the Laboratory. There were powerful men in Washington, DC who wanted to see the new Laboratory in Livermore shut down. The stress of the failure had its effects on Lawrence and Teller, and they both suffered from attacks of colitis and had to be hospitalized. Herb York came down with Valley Fever and had to remain at home in bed rest. That meant that the
future of the nuclear weapons program at the Laboratory rested squarely on the shoulders of Johnny Foster and Harold Brown. ...
"Johnny was especially interested in designing a weapon for the Army, which during the Korean War, had experienced massive “human wave” attacks of Chinese soldiers — assaults that had almost destroyed Eighth Army. The Chinese Army attacked with large, closely packed formations that overwhelmed American defenses. Chastened, the Army wanted a nuclear artillery shell that would deter any nation from using those tactics again on a battlefield. ... He did not know it, but a team of Los Alamos engineers and technicians had developed a diagnostic technique called a pin dome that could measure how a device imploded. ... The Cleo was a tactical weapon, suitable for the Army, and it promised to be one of the smallest atomic devices yet developed. The Cleo concept required multidimensional modeling to fully understand its workings, and Jim Wilson performed Cleo calculations on new codes that he wrote. But even with Wilson’s talents, multidimensional computer codes were primitive affairs in 1954. ... For its transport to the Nevada Test Site, the Cleo was constructed in two parts, and each part was placed into a reinforced Samsonite suitcase [Cleo was tested in Nevada on | March 1955 as 7 kt Teapot- Tesla, atop a 300 ft tower. The predicted yield was 3.5-7kt. It was only 10 inches wide, 39.5 inches long, 785 lb, and used an external Zipper neutron gun. An even smaller version, Cleo II, was tested as 2 kt Teapot-Post on 9 April 1955, 34.2" long, weight 322 Ib]. ... The Cleo had worked; the first warhead from the Laboratory to do so. Someone, apparently, had leaked information out about how the device had been delivered to the tower. Time magazine wrote a story about a new type of nuclear weapon that could fit inside a suitcase. ... Lawrence opened a discussion by asking, “Why do we need small diameter nuclear weapons?” Teller responded that they were needed for
nuclear artillery, which had been identified as a need for the Army."
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- T. F. Ramos, "Call Me Johnny", Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, report LLNL-BOOK-783447, 2019, p. 19-22, https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1576166
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This report is « over the past fort advances and fa stockpile.
Authors. titles,
This document consists of 30 pages.
A Brief History of the First Efforts of the
Livermore Small-Weapons Program (U) Wikies G. 2m
William G. Di LA-11402
Lawrence S. € Weapons Progra
Lawrence S.G (U), LA-11403
Lawrence S. Germain fe
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= : Lawrence S. G LA-11404 ' t January 2: 1991 before the 1958 '
Raymond Polk
Raymond Polk 11401
? ' F (All reports are Lawrence S. Germain retired from the Los Alamos National Laboratory in 1985 after
thirty years of experience in weapons design and testing in the national laboratories—
twenty years at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and ten years at Los Alamos. He A BRIEF received a Ph.D. in physics from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1949 and taught LIVER physics for four years at Reed College, Portland, Oregon, before joining Livermore. Much
of this report is drawn from the author's memory, and many of the opinions expressed
reflect his personal recollections.
The first draft of this report was written in 1988, and the information in the report does not reflect events or
research since 1988. This
researct Operation ~~“Operation Teapot had. by and large. been had, by and large. been anj The Livermore Small-Weapons Program] nuclear important step in Livermore's growth. At the thus organize: hree-prong attack for opera- inceptio start, the Livermore weapons tion Redwin used as they had their backs to the wall.\ importa The design physicist was repeatedly lined, a
The The feeling in Livermore was do or die. These tests /ad to be
successful—or else! The first one up was Tesla
and the results were considered successful. It , was followed by Turk one week later (March 7, 1955). With a yield of 44 kt, Turk was also considered a success—as was Post.
scolded for presenting unpromising results. He was urged to make the system work. As a result, he took the most optimistic view of each of the several areas of uncertainty in the design—too optimistic, as it tumed out. It was only the nuclear test that revealed the overly optimistic
The low point of the weapons design history approach. In the absence of nuclear testing, the of Livermore had been passed—but not with- design errors might never have been uncov- |
out considerable turmoil, Shortly before the ered. | date of the Tesla test. news reached Livermore Sif there were no concerning the results of some experiments on tests to keep the system honest, nuclear design- , the equation of state of plutonium that had been | ers could be pressured into certifying designs | carried out at Los Alamos) that would not work.} =e Tesla was not threat-
ened with failure—quite the opposite—but much of the diagnostic equipment was set for the wrong levels. In a great flurry of activity, the expected yields of Post and Tesla were re- calculated. There was some bitterness in Liver- more towards Los Alamos because it was felt that these important data could have been made available at an earlier date. The Los Alamos rejoinder was that they did not wish to make data available until they were certain of the results and were certain that the results would not be misused. This whole exchange was in- dicative of an unhealthy tension at that time between the two laboratories.
and Fig Were fired on Runit (Yvo
' Eniwetok Atoll as close to the gi
sible—the standoff of a few incl quired by the device designers t the presence of the ground did nc implosion. This near-ground test to accommodate a fallout experim by Sandia.?
——et
There were other Livermore tests in Opera- | tion Plumbbob to which the Livermore Small-} |
Weapons Group did not contribute; 58A [
As more and more weapons entered stock- pile and came into the hands of people less knowledgeable about nuclear design, questions about the safety of nuclear weapons assumed more importance. One of the first questions to
receive serious attention was one-point safety. The requirement was that no more than four pounds of nuclear yield should be produced as a result of the detonation at any one point in the HF. nerhans because four pounds is small
Diet ee ee There being no other NTS soil at device was emplaced in the sar radiation field or no. The Hami fired at the top of a 50-ft wood tow man Flat, and Humboldt was fire ily constructed 25-ft wood tower the NTS.
Laboratory interest in “—Taboratory interest in small. cl fenercan rad clean te ect a to the t | eral derertpier et system:
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"For the tests of 1956, Johnny organized the Hectoton Group into three teams; each team was responsible for designing an atomic device that deviated from the other devices in some way. He instituted a protocol that named each new device after a bird, and the three devices were called the Swan, the Swallow, and the Swift. They were radically different from the Cleo. ... The Swallow came the closest to resembling a nuclear artillery shell. The Swallow’s design had to be strong enough to withstand the high torque and acceleration it would experience after being fired from an artillery tube. ... The smallest device was the Swift. The Swift team was led by an Air Force captain named Jasper Welch, who would eventually rise to the rank of major general. ... With the coming of summer 1956, Johnny moved his entire group to Eniwetok. ... There were huge clams living inside the atoll, and Johnny wanted to take home a large clam shell. ... When he came to the surface for air, Johnny noticed several sharks circling in the lagoon a hundred yards away ... A Hectoton physicist named Larry Germain [Lawrence S. Germain, author of the LLNL history of tactical nuclear weapons and related thermonuclear primary stages, see illustration; above from our compendium of declassified data linked here], who always wore a pair of thick glasses, was treading water nearby, and Johnny asked him to watch out for the sharks and warn him if they began to get closer. ... When he resurfaced, there was no Germain, and Johnny noticed that the sharks were coming closer. He swam back to shore, and spotted Germain lying on the beach. When he asked Germain why he had left his post, the bespectacled physicist responded, “Well, I thought about what you said about
there being sharks in the water, and I decided to get out of there.”
"It was time to test the devices, starting with the Swift [0.19 kt Redwing- Yuma, 27 May 1956, 5 inches in diameter, 24.5 inches long, weighed 96 lb.] . It was tested atop a 200-foot tower. It gave a low yield, about one-fourth of what had been expected. This was not an encouraging start. ... they would have to wait and see how the other designs worked. That opportunity came two weeks later, with the test of the Swallow [1.49 kt Redwing-Kickapoo, 13 June 1956, 8 inches in diameter, 28 inches long, weighed 225 Ib] atop a 300-foot tower. The mediocre performance of the Swift made the mood tense. ... the Swallow performed well, rendering a yield greater than had been predicted. The Army had wanted a tactical nuclear device, and it looked like they may now have one. Next it was the Swan’s turn. When test day arrived, the same controls that had detonated the Swallow now triggered the Swan, which lit up the South Pacific sky and gave a yield in the upper part of its predicted range of values, which was gratifying [Swan, reported to be a boosted a two-point ignition hollow-pit air-lens flying plate slapper device, aka X W-45, was tested as the 15.2 kt Redwing-Inca nuclear test on 22 June 1956, with a mass of 47.6 kg, a length of 58 cm and a diameter of 29.5 cm. On 2 July 1956 it was used as the primary stage of the 360 kt Redwing- Mohawk test which used a Flute secondary stage. Mohawk was 15 inches in diameter, 46.2 inches long, and weighed 1116 lb]. This was the mothership of their atomic designs — the main hope for the Hectoton Group — and it had performed well. ... At a meeting held back in Livermore in August 1956, Johnny announced, “A study named Robin has been started on a different method of implosion [Dr Peter A. Goetz states the Robin was melon shaped in A technical History of America's Nuclear Weapons, v2, revised edition 2020, p209: "The Robin contained a hollow, boosted, plutonium core that resembled a "thick eggshell" ... Instead of using a shockwave to shape and compress its core ... Robin relied on deflagration ... burning ... at subsonic velocities ... the explosive envelope of the Robin primary was composed of PBX9404 (94% HMX) and its core was composed of alpha-phase Pu239, the densest known allotrope ... 19.89 g/cc"]. It
aims to achieve a device characterized by light weight, ruggedness, and moderate efficiency.” ...
"They quickly converged onto a design that was a marvel to study. There were originally two versions of the Robin, Robin A and Robin B. The first A version used enriched uranium as its nuclear fuel, and it was cumbersome. The second version, Robin B, had a plutonium pit and when it was tested, it performed exquisitely. The Robin B was a true descendent to the original Geode concept. It was light and rugged, and it gave a significant yield. When the Robin B team was done, the device could be carried by one man. ... The Robin never showed up in America’s nuclear stockpile; that was not its legacy. It was much more important than that. It became the foundation upon which to build warheads for the future. It was the ultimate fission weapon, the prototype used to build the country’s modern stockpile. [However, Robin primaries were used in the 1963 Lawrence Livermore Lab W47Y2 X1 warhead, with an oralloy (U235) Fife secondary stage, for the Polaris A2 SLBM. In 1965, when tests showed that 75% of these 144 Robins failed due oiled neutron absorbing wire corroding permanently into the plutonium core of the Robin primary - this cadmium-boron wire was supposed to be pulled out by a small electric winch motor automatically before detonation as a safety system to prevent nuclear yield release in accidents - the Robins were replaced by 10kt boosted linear implosion Kinglet primaries. The Polaris A-3 carried three 200kt W58 thermonuclear warheads, the first American deployed devices with spherical oralloy loaded Tuba secondaries, Kinglet primaries and thorium casings. Polaris was important not only for giving a protected second strike capability to the West, eliminating the dangerous need for launch on warning and a first strike to avoid missiles being hit first like sitting ducks in a surprise strike by the enemy, but also for replacing regional land based missile systems. For example, the old vulnerable Jupiter missiles in Turkey which Kennedy removed in "exchange" for the removal of Khrushchev's missiles in Cuba, were simply replaced in March 1963 by the USS Sam Houston SSBN-609, an A-2 Polaris submarine using a base at Rota in Spain. So Khrushchev actually improved American nuclear deterrence by asking for the junk Jupiter missiles to be
removed from Turkey!] "
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- T. F Ramos, "Call Me Johnny", Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, report LLNL-BOOK-783447, 2019, p. 23-27, https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1576166
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Dmitry V. SHIRKOV is a theoretical physicist, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS).
His major scientific interests are quantum field theory and the theory
of superconductivity and dispersion relations.
After the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences was set up, Dmitry
Shirkow worked for ten years for the Artillery self-propelled guns with n institute of Mathematics, Siberian Branch; at the military parade. then was employed by the Joint Institute Moscow, November 7, 1957
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ABOVE: the Russian's took three years to develop their first small-diameter two-point linear (long-axis compression) implosion "Melon"
device, without using computers, which was tested with success (full design yield) in March 1956. An illustrated article, The Tsar projectile for nuclear artillery, by one of its developers, Dmitry V. Shirkov (in charge of predicting the yield, not so easy for a radical two
point linear implosion device if you don't have any computers!) is linked here, see also the page here.
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"The Soviet Union maintained a huge army in Eastern Europe that was poised to launch itself against the democracies of Western Europe, especially West Germany. Its 96 divisions consisted mostly of armored forces and mechanized infantry — tanks and soldiers mounted in armored vehicles. B Division physicists came up with an idea for a weapon that could be used against Soviets tanks in an invasion. Their idea was to attack Soviet tank crews without destroying the surrounding West German countryside by detonating the weapon at a high altitude. The weapon was called an enhanced radiation warhead because it could release more radiation, especially neutrons, aimed at tankers while having a reduced blast. It would deter the Soviet Union from launching an armored attack against the West. Johnny decided
that the enhanced radiation warhead qualified as a valid weapon to test in the new operations.
"The RAND Corporation, a so-called “think tank” headquartered in Santa Monica, California, is used by the Department of Defense for studies related to national security. From its earliest days, analysts from RAND visited the Laboratory to observe how the country’s
nuclear weapons research was progressing, and true to form, a RAND analyst named Sam Cohen visited Johnny to ask what was new.
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Johnny described the enhanced radiation weapon they were testing, and Cohen exclaimed, “You’ve invented the neutron bomb!” Cohen went back to his office in Santa Monica and wrote up a report in which he described what he had heard about the new weapon, and he claimed that he had invented it [this is inaccurate and relates to a later meeting in 1962 not Cohen's key visit in 1958, according to Cohen, and Johnny wasn't developing a neutron bomb to end world wars, but cleaner, low yield thermonuclear weapons "Dove" and "Starling" for project Plowshare, and it was him - Cohen - who in 1958, after looking at the "Dove" and "Starling" designs, asked for their neutron outputs off his own back, and then put together the collateral-damage-averting two-stage 1-2 kt enhanced neutron air burst concept for deterrence of invasions! ]. The weapon underwent development over the years until it was ready to be
deployed with NATO troops. ...
"Six months after the crisis over Berlin, [President] Kennedy flew out to Berkeley to receive an honorary degree from the University of California [23 March 1962] ... The nuclear warheads that Kennedy had relied on when he faced Soviet threats had been designed by these very same scientists, and Kennedy wanted to thank them personally. As Director of the Laboratory, Johnny would be giving the President a briefing to show him the warheads that were part of the backbone of the nation’s defensive posture. ... Full-scale models of the Polaris and Minuteman warheads were placed on demonstration tables, and Johnny showed the President the strategic warheads. After that, Johnny planned to give a pitch for an idea he had conceived the year before concerning the security of tactical nuclear weapons. He had an idea about how to protect the weapons, and he initiated a program to design a sophisticated anti-theft system that came to be called the Permissive Action Link (PAL). ... ; Johnny explained the PAL concept and Kennedy became animated with the demonstration and pulled
up a chair and sat before the device. ...
"The President liked the idea and agreed with Johnny’s approach to solving the problem. Kennedy asked his Presidential Science Advisor, Jerome Wiesner, to look at the matter more deeply, and Wiesner replied on May 29, 1962, that the approach seemed to be a good idea and a timely solution to a national security need. On June 6, Kennedy issued National Security Memorandum No. 160, which directed the Department of Defense to install PAL systems into selected nuclear weapons, principally those in NATO. On July 6, 1962, the New York Times reported, “President Kennedy asked Congress today for $23,300,000 to install electronic locks on nuclear weapons in this country
on
and abroad as a safeguard against accidental or unauthorized firings.
- T. F. Ramos, "Call Me Johnny", Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, report LLNL-BOOK-783447, 2019, p. 31-33, https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1576166
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Classifier: Michael Pankratz Derived from: LA-4000, Rev. 8, 9/02 July 14,2003
LA-14066-H History Tracing the Origins of the W76: 1966-Spring 1973 (U) Betty L. Perkins November 3, 2003
e Los Alamos
NATIONAL LABORATORY
Los Alamos NM 87545
JEBEL
a. Military Requirements for Small, Lightweight Warheads As noted previously, in the mid-1960s the Los Alamos design group had begun work on 10-inch diameter or less primaries,
(b)(3)
The reason for this great interest on the part of the design laboratories in the 10-inch and less diameter was the fact that the Military was pushing for small, lightweight systems. By this period, the missile/guidance/nose-cone establishment in the United States had developed their systems to where it appeared that it would be possible to put several warheads on one intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), deploy the missile, and have each of the warheads hit a different target. This concept is referred to as use of multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRY). It was felt at that time that the USSR was also going into these types of systems. Because a warhead is much less costly than a missile, the Military wanted to pack as many warheads as possible into each missile, This desire for as many warheads as possible on one missile pushed the nuclear weapon groups to achieve as small as possible in terms of diameter. Moreover, the Military wanted as long a range as possible for each missile; this requirement pushed the weapon groups to try and design minimum-weight warheads.
A request for multiple-carriage capability for the forthcoming improved Minuteman system was formalized in a January 1963 revision to the Phase | study, Three reentry vehicles were to be carried in this system—designated the Mk 12 (L). On February 12, 1964, Phase 3 authorization was given for the Mk 12 (L). Livermore and Sandia Corporation, Livermore, were to receive the assignment (the warhead would carry the designation XW62). In November 1964, the Military Characteristics were amended to provide a warhead “compatible with a MIRV application on the advanced Minuteman missile system.””*
August 31, 1964, in a letter to AEC Chairman, Glenn Seaborg, Harold Brown, Director of Defense Research and Engineering, formally proposed the lightweight warhead program. Later, a paper titled “MIRV on Minuteman
Betty L. Perkins, “Tracing the Origins of the Modern Primary: 1952-1970 (U),” Los Alamos National Laboratory report LA-13755-H (SRD) (April 2, 2001), pp. XII-7—XIl-14.
1-44 ARQAH Yih’
‘1. Livermore: A Small, Lightweight Secondary
LA-14066-H
(b)(3) In the mid-1950s the U.S. Military began to push for smaller, lighter nuclear weapon
designs. At Livermore, the secondary design team began work on the design of a secondary Suitable for this application.
Today the 1E33 detonator is still in use in the w76. Ginsberg has reported that these detonators show no signs of deterioration with age.**°
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UNCLASSIFIED
Chapter V will outline and briefly discuss the Los Alamos as Phase 3 programs during the 1966- made of Phase | and 2 programs and early develo, those years, This chapter will attempt to inform thi required. However, as Chapter V will also describ 1966-1972 to win a viable Phase 3 assignment to ¢ weapon system. The W62 for the Minuteman II w The W68 for the Navy’s Poseidon submarine with Earlier, the W56 (the warhead for the Minuteman Polaris) had also gone to Livermore. The Chapter stockpile that were important for the weapon prog) Los Alamos laboratories.
made by the Defense Department. It we weren’t p yields in smaller packages to be made we wouldn number of Minuteman we have is the same and th warhead technology that enables this country to ki the technological base which the weapons laborati
S new job as director at Los Alar campaign for Los Alamos to receive the Phase 3 a this effort.
“Remarks by H. M. Agnew Concerning Need for Testing,”
1970), pp. 7.6-7.7, A99-019, 269-1.
LA-14066-H 3. Reservoir Designs to Provide Minimu In a March 1969 memo, primary designer R. result of the formation of *He from the decay of tt
(bd
The yield of a B65
to *He both by the loss of the-Source of 14-MeV n boost multiplication rate caused by the high cross.
characteristic of "He. ” He went on to add, “In a cc tritium produced by *He appears too late in the bo
the temperature does pot get high enough to prodt
R. Canada to Distribution, Subject: “He in Weapon: 199-13,
In an April 1972 TWX to Assistant Director Application) Colonel Robert T. Duff, Agnew rep U.S. nuclear deterrent. Agnew noted, “It occurs t our strategic missile warheads and the Soviet Un position, the reality of this deterrent may become
“This, then our strategic deterrent Will have tostag continues we'll be threatening to throw confetti a penetration and survivability but little deterrent p
In a letter dated October 10, 1972, to Giller, National Security, Agnew again noted several rez best solution for maximizing the deterrence capal considering the number of required submarines ai nuclear material, the low-yield warheads were no out that for the Hiroshima device, the effects on I buildings and the people in them “wasn’t all that had lost more than ten million people in WWIL defense network in place, even if that did not wot might not mind losing a few people. Agnew wrot warhead numbers at the cost of a decrease in yiel\ deterrence in the minds of those we hope to deter should endeavor to convince the DoD that what tl yields.
78'H. M. Agnew, University of California, Los Alamo BY3/Colonel Robert T. Duff, USAF, Assistant Direct Application USAEC, Wash., D.C. (SRD) (April 14, 1! (b)(3)
316/510
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*°B. Pruit Ginsberg. personal communication (SRD) (Januarv 29. 2003). wn-14066-H AxtA "Into the 1960s, Los Alamos and Livermore were designing primaries that were huge by today’s standards. This changed,
beginning in 1967 and into the early 1970s, with the Defense Department’s drive to obtain smaller, lighter, and more efficient (greater yield for the weight) primary designs: primaries that would then reduce the size and weight of the entire warhead. The Defense Department’s goal was to develop ballistic missiles that would carry multiple, independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) aimed at multiple targets. Such warheads required a revolutionary new primary design. At Livermore, Seymour Sack’s smaller, lighter, and more efficient primary design was reasonably well developed. His was the leading design for a MIRV warhead used on the Minuteman and Titan II missiles. To successfully advance upon Sack’s design [Robert K.] Osborne, who had experience working on a previous effort to improve primary designs, took the lead on the Los Alamos design efforts. His result, after designing and testing multiple variations, was the primary used in the W76 warhead that arms ballistic missiles carried on the Navy’s Trident-class nuclear submarines. The W76 is the most numerous warhead in the U.S. nuclear stockpile." - Jeremy Scott Best, The Giants of the Nuclear Testing Era: The Works of Robert K. Osborne, Los Alamos National Laboratory report LA-UR-18- 27654, 2018, page 8.
HERMAN KAHN'S MUNICH ANALOGY FOR NUCLEAR COERCION BY A RUSSIAN DICTATOR
Munich September 30, 1938: in exchange for a worthless paper agreement promising "peace", Chamberlain allows Hitler to invade the German populated part (Sudetenland) of Czechoslovakia, declaring the need to peacefully protect its own foreign nationals (Germans) living in other countries. Big fuss in media: talk of sanctions, weight of world's opinion weighing on shoulders of Hitler to restrain him - proving that appeasement has allowed Britain time to rearm slower than Germany, thereby removing any real deterrent, and reassuring Hitler that we are committed to "peace in our time". (He had already annexed Austria, but that was permitted just like Crimea's annexation by Russia in 2014.) Six months later - after world's media has "moved on" - the remainder of Czechoslovakia was invaded by Hitler (March 1939). Next invasion (12 months after invasion of Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia): Poland (September 1939). Chamberlain has finally drawn a line in the sand (after years of him and his predecessor Baldwin rearming the UK slower than Germany, allowing any hope of deterrence to slip away, by permitting an enemy to go from no threat in 1933 to a bigger military than the UK, requiring UK rearmament, prior to any credible deterrence being feasible*): he finally tells Hitler invading Poland will provoke war. But given the
previous farce, Hitler is not deterred by the paltry level of UK rearmament (compared to Germany), and invades Poland.
Note that once the remainder of Ukraine is invaded by Putin - he has already condemned the government of Ukraine as a danger for fighting to defend parts of its own country that border the Russian bear, so everyone can see where the ship is headed - he will be in Hitler's situation in 1939, since Ukraine has a direct border with Poland. The next replay of history will be that "Poland has been a member of NATO since 1999, and NATO presents a threat or antagonism to Russian occupied Ukraine, which must be neutralised to preserve the peace of mind of Putin and his comrades. If NATO tries to defend its members from further Russian peace keeping invasions and conquests, then Putin/Russia will be forced, regrettably, to use its ICBMs etc. to defend itself, and since America has no ABM since the Safeguard system was defunded by Congress anti-nuclear fanatics like Biden in 1975, goodbye democracy." Also note that Putin has more nuclear warheads and Novichok nerve gas than the West. (Until 22 June 1941, Russia was on Hitler's side and jointly invaded Poland in September 1939, contrary to all airbrushed Russian school history books; and all left wing UK school history books! The reality is the secret annex to the 23 August 1939 Russian-German Molotov—Ribbentrop so-called non-aggression pact, which led to the invasion of Poland by Germany and Russia on 1 and 17 September 1939, respectively, according to which Poland was divided up between the two invaders, Russia and Germany; a fact that Russian and left-wing Western pseudo historians have sought to ignore, play down or cover-up. The point is, there is an historical precedent here to Russian aggression in Europe,
despite propaganda denying it.)
Russia could invade not only Ukraine but Europe, if you look past troop numbers to the Russian nuclear and chemical missile stockpile in relation to the West's, which has been depleted (Joe Biden as an anti-nuclear senator for decades was always pushing for Western arms reduction, encouraging enemy aggression). Once Ukraine is invaded by Russia, Poland will be on the new Russian border. It's quite possible that if the chips go down and blitzkrieg becomes the order of the day, NATO will collapse. It just doesn't have the firepower of Russia, undermining deterrence. Kennedy deployed 0.02kt yield W54 tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to Europe to deter invasions. (Little Feller I, on 17 July 1962, proved the W54 - reportedly a scaled down 2-point prolate spheroid implosion Swan device - to observer Attorney General Robert Kennedy, in the last ever atmospheric nuclear test at Nevada Test Site, the film of which was only declassified on 22 Dec 1997. Fired by a crew of two using a 155 millimeter launcher, it detonated at a height of burst of 20 feet, some 1.7 miles from the launch point with a 0.018 kt measured yield. An identical warhead was tested as Little Feller I, 10
days earlier, gave 0.022 kt, also demonstrating a W54 yield reliability of 0.02kt +/-10%.) After Nixon decommissioned them,
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Carter and Reagan replaced them with W79 tactical nuclear warheads, which remained a credible deterrent against invasions (unlike trying to deter the invasion of Crimea by saying you will bomb Moscow) until the Cold War ended. The USSR collapsed. Then people like Biden lobbied successfully to get rid of tactical nuclear weapons in the 90s, and now we don't have a credible deterrent. How can a threat to put sanctions on Putin, or to bomb Moscow as a last resort, deter an invasion of the Ukraine, when
he has a bigger nuclear stockpile plus chemical weapons like Novichok? It's insanity. End of story.
We have experience of this insanity from disarmament propaganda by enemies of liberty, freedom and democracy, not just from Hitler's invasions in the 1930s, but from Stalin's invasions in the 1940s and his successors until the Cold War supposedly ended with the break up of the USSR: America had a monopoly on nuclear weapons until 1949, but it failed to make enough, quickly enough and was unable to use nuclear weapons as a credible deterrent to prevent Stalin from seizing half of Europe after WWII. Puppet governments controlled by Moscow (backed up by tank invasions whenever the strings on the puppets broke, e.g. Germany 1953, Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968) put tanks on the border of NATO. Then, tactical nuclear weapons were needed until the end of the Cold War to prevent invasions. When they were not there, invasions occurred. When they were available, invasions didn't occur. QED. They tipped the balance of risk against aggressors in a way that sanctions and massive retaliation bluffing doesn't. Biden and comrades in the 70s used the old 30s mythology of "arms control" to try to get rid of credible deterrence. The typical argument is that deterring world wars using the credible deterrence of tactical nuclear weapons is "dangerous" to people planning invasions. That's the whole point. The nuclear fear mongering issue of the much higher background radiation in the mile high city of Denver (if you are fanatical about radiation, then why not start by banning mountain climbing, high altitude cities, aircraft, etc, rather than the fallout from nuclear technology?), also occurs with nuclear weapons deterrence: if you think high yield nuclear weapons that could cause collateral damage are a problem, then why not campaign positively for the tactical weapons that deter the invasions that triggered world wars (the invasion of Belgium in 1914, and Poland in 1939) in place of strategic warheads which fail to deter invasions? If we only have tactical nuclear weapons, we can only stop invasions and there can be no escalation risk. In both cases, it's obvious that the anti-nuclear folk are conning the media, successfully as their forebearers did in the 1920s and 1930s. This was the case also in the 1920s and 1930s when poison gas bomb scare mongering was used in the media to successfully prevent credible deterrence, tragically resulting in world war and tens of millions dead. As the Cold War proved, even carrying a big stick is no deterrent if you speak softly to make it appear incredible. The squealing from the pro-Russian so-called anti-nuclear media folk against the W79 neutron bomb 40 years ago proves that was a credible deterrent
(they wouldn't have cared otherwise).
The Western media outlook until a few days ago was that the 150,000 or so Russian troops around Ukraine was just the normal Russian military training exercise, pushed nearer the Ukrainian border for added realism, and such numbers are not enough to occupy Ukraine or Europe, so there can't possibly be a real problem, just American bear-baiting propaganda. Not so. Again, as we saw in the Cold War conquest of Eastern Europe, and even before that in the Third Reich era, you don't actually need huge numbers of boots on the ground to successfully invade countries. All dictatorships are by definition a minority controlling a majority - if it were the other way around dictatorship would not be needed since democracy is a numbers competition where the majority tribe or party wins (even if they have to rely on postal ballots). In any case, secret police (Stasi for instance, in East Germany in the Cold War) did the major job of controlling dissent, not Russian boots on the ground. The primary techniques used are political infiltration, coercion, media subversion, propaganda, fear, and political concentration camps/Gulags for dissidents, which massively reduces the need for large numbers of troops. Putin's seizure of Crimea was done using Russian special forces with their insignia removed from their uniforms. There are lots of tricks involved in warfare to reduce the troop numbers required for invasions. Putin's latest one, officially "recognising" the separatist Russian-infiltrated parts of Ukraine bordering Russia and its sphere of influence, doesn't require a million boots on the ground. Like Hitler's annexation of Austria or Sudetenland, you can "invade" with a token force once you have infiltrated it first by stealth. This was the whole point of Hitler's "peace" propaganda machine in the UK in the 1930s, and the USSR's World Peace Council. Invasions occur at first by reasonable appearing salami tactics: small "peace keeping" incursions are then followed by support to rebels until those rebels mount an assisted coup d'etat or declare a separatist state in their region. Then the process is simply repeated to get further slices, until the rebel numbers
become big enough for blitzkrieg to be a success.
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Simple Russian design of separate- staged thermonuclear weapon:
H-BOMB
plasma~_}|——metal foil
fusionable
material
Fission- bomb
trigger
98% clean 50 meg in 1961, using mul
otal
41. & fission bomb, the W-88 ee | “primary,” creates the War- heat and pressure that head detonate the second device. The egg shape, a crucial advance in miniaturization, reduces diameter for better fit into the nose cone.
2. & spherical fusion
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flonepevnoe ceyenue, OapH
bomb, the "secondary," is the most powerful. Huge amounts of X-rays from the first explosion compress and heat the fusion fuel in the secondary capsule, and it explodes.
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3. & layer of enriched uranium around this device fissions on detonation, creating a third blast.
(c) 1999 San Jose Mercury News, by Reid
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ABOVE: 1974 USSR nuclear weapons design poster showing critical masses under different conditions, pointing out that using implosion for compressing a subcritical 12 kg mass of U235 makes it critical, compared to needing 48 kg (a 16.8 cm diameter sphere) for a critical mass of uncompressed U235. Switching to Pu239 reduces this by a factor of 2.82, while enclosing it in a 10 cm thick neutron reflector reduces the bare sphere critical mass by a further factor of 3.42. A combination of using both a neutron reflector and core compression can produce better than a 10-fold reduction in critical mass, according to Russian nuclear weapon designers. The simple Russian Sakharov-Zel'dovich elliptical thermonuclear design published by Uwe Parpart in the 15 October 1976 issue of New Solidarity allegedly originates at least in part from the July 1976 disclosures at U.S. labs by Soviet physicist Dr Leonid I. Rudakov, which also led to an earlier 8 October 1976, article in Science, entitled "Thermonuclear Fusion: U.S. Puts Wraps on Latest Soviet Work", page 166. (In March 1976 Pravda claimed Dr Rudakov had solved the clean fusion power problem using implosion principles.) The Rudakov principle demonstrated how hard radiation energy from the primary (fission) stage of a nuclear weapon is reradiated by a plasma as soft x-rays, to
compress fusion fuel at the focus of a 1950s Russian nuclear weapon ellipsoidal radiation case. According to Chuck Hansen, the first
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American nuclear test using this Sakharov-Zel'dovich ellipsoidal radiation case was the Egg design, fired as the successful 250 kt Redwing-Huron shot at Eniwetok Atoll in 1956 (this is according to Sybil Francis, Warhead politics: Livermore and the competitive system of nuclear weapon design page 131; it also used a spherical secondary stage - the L-3 concept referred to by Francis - which wasn't liked by the USA - unlike Russia and Britain - because of the complexity of doing 3-d computer calculations for the geometry spherical isotropic compression in the 1950s; spherical secondaries were first deployed by America in miniature thermonuclear weapons in 1963, namely the 200 kt, 117 kg Polaris warhead W58 and the 170 kt, 115kg Minuteman warhead W62, while Britain and Russia had by then stockpiled weapons with spherical secondard stages for years). Dr Friedwardt Winterberg mathematically analyses the use of an ellipsoidal radiation case with fission and thermonuclear stages at the focii, in his 1981 book The physical principles of thermonuclear explosive devices, Figure 4 (below), explaining how x-rays of varying energies can be mirrored. Even so, you can make paper calculations that are testable in the field, without requiring 3-d computer simulations, as proved by the 1950s British
and Russian programmes.
28 PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES OF THERMONUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE DEVICES 38
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32 PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES OF THERMONUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE DEVICES The
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The American insistence on fuller theoretical analysis prior to testing was bureaucratic time-wasting. It was Teller's less dogmatic Livermore that took up the discarded excellent Los Alamos Huron spherical secondary in 1958, testing to develop warheads not unlike today's contemporary designs. The need for complex computer design simulations may be averted by simple "overkill" to compress and ignite fusion charges using x-rays from multiple stages, bombs within bombs like a Russian doll to avoid the need to enhance the primary stage yield using tritium gas with its 12.3 years half-life (as shown, Howard Morland's use of the 1958 lithium deuteride stage idea in his
book reproduces an actual design tested in the 1960s called "Swiss cheese", in which the fusion stage contains several separate subcritical
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lumps of fissile fuel which release neutrons into lithium deuteride, as an alternative to Teller's original cylindrical "spark plug" idea). These weapons are very simple to service, and incorporate "reliability through redundancy", since the multiple fission primary stages allow for reasonable thermonuclear efficiency even if one primary stage fails for some reason. The accompanying official limited distribution Russian nuclear weapons employment manual, Nuclear Weapons - A Manual for Officers, which we obtained (all three editions) from Ukraine, has photos of Russian MIG-15 fighter jets and tanks which were exposed to nuclear tests by Russia (see illustrations below), and many tables and graphs showing the measured blast and radiation effects of 8, 30 and 150 kiloton yield nuclear tests on different targets, plus thermal effects from a 50 kt test, and is linked here - these confidential Russian nuclear weapons capabilities manuals differ drastically from Glasstone's American exaggerations for propaganda on nuclear effects, e.g. Table 3 in the 1961 nuclear test data compilation shows very different data on thermal effects to Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapon. Russian test data from a 50 kiloton burst shows glass only begins to melt at 700-800 cal/em%2, while white boards only ignite at 150 cal/em“’2 (although they temporarily smoke or char at 40 cal/em%2)! (Note that in the Russian tables, kas = cal.) The Russians also show how building skyline shadowing stops most direct radiation. We also uploaded extracts from the 128 pages standard Russian manual, How to operate in the conditions of application of nuclear, chemical and bacteriological weapon, by the USSR's Department of Defense, Moscow, which has 99 illustrations, and other Russian manuals linked here, and there is a Russian
translation of the Glasstone propaganda book here.
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Further reading: a complete analysis of this invasion situation is included in our 2015 detailed review of Kahn's On Thermonuclear War, linked here (in summary, sanctions can escalate such situations into all-out war; so the people talking about "hard-hitting" sanctions, who don't and won't have either a credible nuclear deterrent to prevent invasions or civil defence to withstand enemy threats, are effectively - despite their lies to the contrary - the warmongers). In Chicago, on 5 October 1937, President Roosevelt (Democratic Party) gave his "quarantine the aggressor speech", to destroy fascist dictatorships without the need for military deterrence: it failed since Japan had hard-hitting sanctions placed on it by America, after it started expanding by force prior to WWII, which led to the Pearl Harbor attack and the Pacific Theatre of WWII, instead of peace. If someone is pointing a large nuclear stockpile in your direction and is hot-headed enough to use Novichok nerve agent and Polonium-210 radioactive agent to kill people in the UK during "peacetime", then what is going to happen if you put hard hitting sanctions on them? Their media will present it as being an act of war; it will provide the excuse to escalate the situation. This sanctions idea, like disarmament for peace, is an example of groupthink autism, whereby nonsense propaganda is used to saturate the media to submerge the key facts, just as occurred in the 1930s when the media became obsessed with proclaiming that appeasement would produce "peace in our time". Some relevant extracts from UK declassified Cold War manuals can be found here and the Russian
nuclear weapons employment manuals we obtained from Ukraine prior to the invasion are linked here.
Putin's Kremlin instagram post on 8 December 2021 stated (in Russian): "Experts spoke about the reasons for the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden. Sanctions do not threaten Russia, and the United States is interested in dialogue, said Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute for the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “The American side is interested in these negotiations. Today, all this talk about the sanctions list, about some other use of sanctions weapons like Nord Stream 2 or List 35, some other measures, I call this the “formula divorce." ... According to the Kremlin press service, Vladimir Putin told Biden during the talks that Russia is interested in receiving legally fixed guarantees that exclude the expansion of NATO to the east and the deployment of strike offensive systems in Russia's neighboring countries. At the same time, the White House claims that Biden, in negotiations with Vladimir Putin, did not give him obligations that Ukraine would remain
outside NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden held talks on November 7 via videoconference."
(in original Russian: "SkcnepTsi paccka3a.1n 0 MpH4nHax NeperoBopos Baagumupa Iytuna u JKo baiiqena. Cankyun Poccnn He rpo3at, a CILIA 3anHTepecoBaHbi B AMaore, CHHTAeT MIaBHbIii HAYIHbI COTpy{HHK HHcTHTyTa CLIUA u Kanagpr PAH Baagumup Bacuipes. "AMepHKaHcKas CTOPOHA B ITHX HeperoBopax 3aHHTepecoBana. Ha cerosqHAWIHH AeCHb BCe ITH pa3srOBOpbI 0 CAHKIHOHHOM CIIHCKe, 0 elle KAKOM-TO HCM0.1b30BaHHH CaHKUMOHHOrLO Opy:xKus Kak "CeBepHbiii HoTOK - 2" nan "CrncoK 35",
emule KAKHe-TO MepbI, 9TO 1 Ha3biBato "(opMy.10 pasBoja". ... [lo coodmenuio npecc-c.1y2kObI Kpemsia, Baagumup Iytun B xoze
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If this is accurate, you wish Biden - already under probation from Joe Public for his disastrous withdrawl from Afghanistan last year, allowing that country to become another dictatorship, just the direction Ukraine will go under his brand of useless grandiose sounding "diplomacy" - akin to Chamberlain shaking hands with Hitler and signing worthless bits of paper, but refusing to deter war credibly and effectively for fear of media condemnation by ignorant journalists - had been a bit more "diplomatic" and promised Putin that Ukraine would remain outside NATO, or even outside of the universe: by the time it would enter NATO, Biden would be out of office anyway so what was the big deal? (Appeasement is ineffectual sanctions; appeasement is not about successfully averting war by making agreements that can later be terminated if necessary!) Biden thankfully can only serve two terms maximum, even if Trump doesn't get back in next time, and American Presidents hardly bother to honour the promises made by their prececessors, even if they are members of the same party. E.g., Truman renegaded on Roosevelt's wartime promise to Britain to continue postwar nuclear weapons collaboration. Britain then had to independently develop its own fission and thermonuclear fusion weapons until collaboration resumed in 1958! If America can do that, it could have given some worthless paper promises to Putin, to keep him out of Ukraine. The Chamberlain appeasement situation was
the exact opposite of this: Sudetenland was given to Hitler in exchange for a worthless paper promise from Hitler!
*(Footnote): UK Prime Ministers Baldwin and Chamberlain used a whole array of excuses to keep the UK from deterring WWII, all of which are still used today against nuclear weapons (Kahn pointed this out sixty years ago). For example, Chamberlain proclaimed himself (both publically from the window of his flat above 10 Downing Street in September 1938, and in private papers and letters proving he really believed he had achieved peace that way) a hero of peacemaking for allowing the invasion of Sudetenland by Hitler in exchange for a worthless signature from Hitler, promising no more invasions after that one! Then, when proved wrong by events in 1939, Chamberlain lied that he always knew Hitler was lying, but he was a secret hero for cleverly making bogus peace deals in order to "buy time for rearmament", a claim disproved by the fact that Britain was rearming ata slower rate than Germany, thereby making a military success less likely with every day "bought", and he knew it was. Chamberlain was as much a lying fraud as Hitler in terms of peacemaking. His lies are still promoted as "news" by bogus "historians" of the
AJP Taylor CND peace propaganda lies variety, because many prefer fairy tales.
UPDATE, 27 February 2022: Putin puts Russia's nuclear forces on alert, cites sanctions - By Yuras Karmanau, Jim Heintz and Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press in Washington post, 27 feb. 2022 - KYIV, Ukraine — "In a dramatic escalation of East- West tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces put on high alert Sunday in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers. The order means Putin has ordered Russia’s nuclear weapons prepared for increased readiness to launch, raising the threat that the tensions could boil over into nuclear warfare. In giving it, the Russian leader also cited hard-hitting financial sanctions imposed by the West against Russia,
including Putin himself."
This report, by Associated Press in the Washington Post, confirms sadly that so far Putin has responded to sanctions by following the predictions made above, escalating his nuclear weapons readiness for war to counter the sanctions with a nuclear threat, akin to what happened when Japan responded to hard-hitting American oil sanctions against it for its 1930s invasions prior to its attack on an American Pacific military base located at Pearl Harbor. This is the whole problem with the arms control situation. Supplying arms to the Ukraine Government to defend itself against Russia could easily be construed to Putin, if he so chooses, as essentially an act of war against Russia, deserving retaliation. Everything the "liberal elite", the left wingers headed by President Biden, does is always at best autistic lunacy that escalates the danger we face. While the BBC may claim that "Putin is isolated"**, he has a larger nuclear force than us, and also powerful nuclear allies in China. It is simply untrue that sanctions will solve the problem; they escalate a crisis into a bigger war. Carpet bombing of civilians, used by Democratic President Johnson in Vietnam, was the same kind of autism; instead of kicking enemies into surrender, such
actions as sanctions and attacking civilians just hardens enemy aggression more.
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**(Footnote): The 1930s media also claimed incorrectly that Hitler was isolated (he had allies in Italy, Japan, etc.), but such lies in the "free" press helped to back up liars in the UK Government like Baldwin and Chamberlain and their populist lunatic policies for "peace in our time" which also lacked any credible deterrent, and just escalated the threats, encouraging genocide, not peace. Sir Norman Angell's Great Illusion argument that economic interdependence of nations prevents escalation in war is precisely reversed by the use of heavy economic sanctions against Russia, which cuts off the supposedly peace-keeping economic interdependence of nations and pushes it into the position of Japan in December 1941 and of Germany in September 1939 (thanks to Roosevelt's 1937 "quarantine the aggressor" theory). Irrational acts, not surrender, is what human nature usually produces when cornered and isolated, despite groupthink brainwashing arguments to the contrary, which were used to determine policy in the Vietnam War and recently in Afghanistan. You need to accept enemy mentality as it exists, and not "put yourselves in the enemy's shoes", if your way of thinking lacks the paranoia, cultural mentality, and aggressive nationalism of an enemy. Russia is not completely isolated anyway, due to its allies in China, North Korea, et al. The latest ideas on fighting the war in Ukraine being mooted by the BBC pyschotics/pundits centre around allowing Ukrainian pilots flying missions to bomb Russian forces in EU funded aircraft from airbases in NATO country Poland, while claiming that NATO is not involved. Again, the pressures of this kind provide excuses for Putin, if he wishes, to escalate it to WWIII at a time and in a way of his choosing, with the factor of surprise in his hands. Threatening to bomb the Kremlin suffers from the risk that Putin could move to a bunker elsewhere, even if the bunker under the Kremlin is really at risk bearing in mind the Russian ABM system around Moscow that can knock down incoming warheads (lacking from Western cities) and the nuclear crater sizes exaggeration scandal, which reduces the ground shock and cratering destruction to underground targets due to the ignorance in the 1977 Glasstone and Dolan Effects of
nuclear weapons book about the work done against gravity in excavating large craters.
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ABOVE: 1986 Russian civil defense manual showing the shelters and evacuation plans which are in many ways similar to British efforts
in 1939 prior to the British declaration of war on Germany two days after it invaded Poland. Note that various authors of American Scientific American articles argue that the evacuation plans exist "largely on paper" as if that somehow allows them to be ignored - just as the 1939 British "Operation Pied Piper" plans to evacuate kids from target areas for civil defence prior to the declaration of WWII against the Nazis - existed on paper until needed. But that didn't prevent kids and other vulnerable people, such as the pregnant, from being evacuated from London on 1 September and war declared two days later on 3 September 1939. The point we are making is that, as Herman Kahn argued, Hitler declared peace on Britain not war, and it was Britain that had to declare war first, and it first evacuated the likely bombing target of the most vulnerable using the "paper" evacuation plans to allow it to declare war on the Nazis, something that would have been or at least seemed more dangerous without such an evacuation first. The history of Russian civil defense is interesting, since to the Russians (unlike everyone else on the planet), both World Wars led to victories of sorts: WWI caused the revolution of October 1917 which replaced the Tsar with Lenin, while WWII led to the great expansion of the Russian Empire to include half of Europe, allowing resources to be seized which enabled rapid progress, from MIG jets to fission bombs in 1949 and thermonuclear two stage weapons in 1955, then the first satellite in space in 1957 and the first human in space in 1961. It is simply untrue that all Russians view WWIas being the disaster that it is portrayed for Britain. (Russia actually achieved a victory that included territorial expansion and
corresponding financial gains, unlike certain other countries that lost Empires due to WWII.) According to Professor William R. Kinter
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and Harriet Fast Scott's 1968 book The Nuclear Revolution in Soviet Military Affairs (University of Oklahoma Press, pages 184-191), the Russian Marshall V. I. Chuikov, who was made chief of civil defense for the USSR after stopping the Nazis at Stalingrad in WWII, and later advising Chiang Kai-shek and also founding the Whampoa Military Academy, in 1966 wrote an article in the Russian journal
Military Knowledge, stating that civil defense allows a Russian victory in WWIII:
"The outcome of nuclear rocket war will now be decided not only on the battlefield, it will in significant measure be predetermined by strikes on the rear areas and on important political and economic centres. Victory in such a war will depend to a large degree on the
ability of the state to survive."
- Quotation from William R. Kinter and Harriet Fast Scott's 1968 book The Nuclear Revolution in Soviet Military Affairs, University of Oklahoma Press, pages 184-5. (Emphasis added to words which are totally taboo here in the West in connection with all things "nuclear". Note that co-author Harriet Fast Scott, a research agent/spy fluent in Russian, lived in the USSR for years in the 1960s since her husband
was assigned there as U.S. air attache.)
Kinter and Fast Scott point out on page 185 of The Nuclear Revolution in Soviet Military Affairs:
"Military Knowledge, the magazine in which the [Chuikov] article appeared, is the official monthly journal of civil defense. There is nothing comparable with this publication in the United States ... The expensive, elaborate family shelters - advertised in the United States some years ago - are unknown. A practical, inexpensive approach for protection measures, using materials readily available, is stressed. It is hardly appreciated in the United States that the Soviet Union already possesses the world's finest shelters ... These are the deep, elaborate subways in five of the largest cities - Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Tbilisi, and Baku. Many sections of the subways run well over 100 feet below street level and are provided with heavy blast doors ... A large number of the total inhabitants of Moscow and Leningrad could be provided shelter in their subways alone." (Britain installed some similar deep shelters in various London tube
stations.)
Regarding the Chuikov doctrine on the ability to achieve a "victory" in nuclear war by being better prepared for any eventuality than the opponent, the side which is better able to survive a nuclear war (by civil defense) can be considered the winner: this Marxist concept of war also prevailed successfully in Vietnam, where the Vietcong dug deep tunnel shelters and left civilian kids to be napalmed in the open for left-wing Western propaganda. It worked, they won in Vietnam using that strategy. This is the very opposite of the "knockout blow" mythology that prevailed in Germany in 1914 and 1939, and also in the West during the Vietnam War, but not the 1st Cold War as a whole, where the West achieved victory and the USSR defeat, through the West's surviving longer than the increasingly bankrupt USSR. Herman Kahn pointed out in the 26 June 1959 U.S. Congressional Hearings on the Biological and environmental effects of nuclear war, that Germany did not start WWI or WWII by a direct attack on Britain, and that Germany planned for a short "knockout blow" military conquest; in both cases it was Britain that declared war on Germany first, not vice-versa. In other words, "Type I Deterrence (deterrence of a direct attack on Britain)" did not fail in either 1914 or 1939. Only "Type II Deterrence (deterrence of an act of provocation, e.g. the invasion of a third party)" failed. So a country starting WWIII, on the basis of WWI and WWII experience, does not need to directly bomb London or New York. Put another way, strategic nuclear weapons, if they had existed in 1914, would have no more deterred the invasion of Belgium then, than they deter the invasion of Ukraine today. For victory you need to be capable of fighting and surviving sufficiently either a surprise attack or long war of attrition, regardless of whether that is an economic cold war via an arms race, or a hot war involving
any kind of weapon.
The strategic nuclear deterrent's role is purely Kahn's debunked Type I deterrence - a fallacy due to the Western obsession with "knockout blow" mythology - which also prevailed in the West in the 1930s where the media was filled with hype claiming that single gas or incendiary aerial attacks on cities would induce defeatism and immediate surrender. This was a travesty of logic which ignores precisely those situations - indirect attacks - that triggered both World Wars. Deterring indirect attacks like sinking the Lusitania in 1915, invading Belgium in 1914, bombing a Pacific island naval base at Pearl Harbor in 1941, or invading Poland in 1939, requires not Type I but the more difficult Type II deterrence, tactical nuclear weapons, since conventional weapons failed to deter both world wars and strategic nuclear weapons have not proved to be a credible deterrent against invasions of third parties. This is because the mobilization of conventional conscripted large armies or tank columns to borders for deterrence of large scale invasions is seen as an act of aggression, whereas nuclear weapons of significant deterrent power are small enough to be continuously available aboard submarines and in missile silos and iglo bunkers on airfields, ready at all times without the trigger-happy 1914-crisis-escalating massive mobilizations that set off
World War I. As General Boisdeffre stated lucidly to Tzar Nicholas in 1892, the mobilization of conventional weapons to try to deter
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world war has the opposite effect because the highly-visible mobilization of the relatively bulky conventional weapons and massive
armies is naturally a massive escalation rather than a deterrent, causing immense crisis instability:
"THE MOBILIZATION IS THE DECLARATION OF WAR. TO MOBILIZE IS TO OBLIGE ONE'S NEIGHBOUR TO DO THE SAME ... OTHERWISE, TO LEAVE A MILLION MEN ON ONE'S FRONTIER, WITHOUT DOING THE SAME SIMULTANEOUSLY, IS TO DEPRIVE ONESELF OF ALL POSSIBILITY OF MOVING LATER; IT IS PLACING ONESELF IN A SITUATION OF AN INDIVIDUAL WHO, WITH A PISTOL IN HIS POCKET, SHOULD LET HIS NEIGHBOR PUT A WEAPON TO HIS FOREHEAD, WITHOUT DRAWING HIS OWN ..."
The mad emergence of nuclear parity, in the late 1960s and early 1970s, occurred after Robert S. McNamara used now-discredited computerised nuclear war effects models (with no more sensible equations than those he used to lose the Vietnam war, i.e. ignoring Russian civil defense just as the improvised conventional war underground shelters of the Vietcong were ignored) to determine nuclear deterrence stockpile levels. The Russians then produced more weapons than America into the 1970s, and America responded with the neutron bomb and arms control treaties for strategic weapons. This was a reversal of the American nuclear superiority behind the amicable resolution of the Cuban missiles crisis by Kennedy in 1962, a factor pointed out by General LeMay in his 1968 book America is in Danger. (Where the left-wing disarmament-biased "historians" analyze the lessons of the Cuban missiles crisis, they deliberately ignore the massive U.S. nuclear superiority which existed in 1962, and its positive effects on Russian decision making, just as they ignore Feis' argument in Japan Subdued, that the emotional aspects of nuclear weapons effects in August 1945 tipped the balance against accepting a dishonorable surrender; in other words, although Japan knew it was defeated and the nuclear attacks were in that sense totally unjustified, emotionally they needed an "excuse" to hoist the white flag after so much suffering, and this
saved 200,000 Yanks earmarked for an invasion of the Japanese home islands as well as 1,500,000 Japanese lives.)
There is a compendium of classic 1960s and 1970s arguments for civil defense, and their political suppression by left-wingers and fools, in Nobel Laureate Dr Eugene P. Wigner's Collected Works, part B, volume VIII, edited by Jagdish Mehra (Springer, 1998, 258 pages). Wigner on 28 April 1976 testified before the U.S. Congressional Hearings of the Joint Committee on Defense Production (page 144 in their printed hearings, online version is LINKED HERE) that the new Russian evacuation plans - as shown in its 1969 Civil Defense Manual (translated as ORNL-TR-2306, Oak Ridge National Lab.) - are very effective (the Russian civil defense plan
includes only essential workers commuting into cities for 12-hour shifts, and using shelters):
"Indeed an easy calculation shows that, if the USSR carries out its city evacuation plans, the total number of casualties that all the nuclear weapons in our missiles could cause would be a good deal less than 50% the losses they suffered in World War II. A reasonable estimate, based on the Oak Ridge [National Laboratory] test of a blast resistant 'expedient shelter’, described in the USSR civil defense handbooks, gives for the loss which our missile carried nuclear weapons could cause, about 3% of the USSR population. What about our own situation? ... An evacuation plan [costs] $1.2 billion .... a blast resistant shelter system similar to
that of China ... would cost around $35 billion."
In 1979, in a joint article with hydrogen bomb advocate Dr Edward Teller in the U.S. Senate Congressional Record (2 August 1979, page S-11490), Wigner points out that Kahn's Type I deterrence is inadequate to prevent war (Type I is also called "mutual assured destruction", if both sides have parity via "arms control" delusions): "... I believe that the so called Mutual Assured Destruction is nonsense, because suppose even if the attacked nation could retaliate, if the other nation pretends that it does not believe it and makes a demand, is there any
point in resisting? What good does it do if it can destroy hundreds of thousands of the aggressors' lives ..."
In his 26 May 1964 address to Mercer County NJ Civil Defense organization (reprinted in his Collected Works, part B, Vol. 8, p35 et seq.), Wigner explains that "people who are against Civil Defense often have some element of frustration ... and they find more easily time for, and outlet in, their opposition," as explained by Robert Waelder's article Protest and Revolution Against Western Societies, in M.A. Kaplan (ed), The Revolution in World Politics (New York, 1962, p 18), i.e. it is the same as the mechanism for Marxist agitators, some of which are openly Marxist and others pretend to be libertarian while remaining faithful to the bigoted dictators. Wigner's address continues: "Much more literature - I think 80% - is against than for Civil Defense and much of it is completely irresponsible. A few weeks ago I read an article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in which the author said that a complete fallout [cheaper than blast] shelter program would cost $50 billion. Now $50 billion is more than would be spent on the complete blast [and fallout] shelter program which I
mentioned [$35 billion]. But ... who will contradict it?"
In Publication 82 of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Civil Defense, 1966, edited by H. Eyring, Wigner
remarks on page 121: "Dr Rapoport said, in a note to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, that it is possible that surrender to Hitler would
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have led to fewer deaths ... My view is the opposite in this case: I believe that if the West had shown clear resolve and determination from
the start, WWII could have been averted."
After Leon Goure wrote his May 1972 report, "Soviet Civil Defense - urban Evacuation and Dispersal" (Centre for Advanced International Studies, Miami University, DTIC report AD0745136), Wigner and J. S. Gailar wrote in their joint article "Russian Evacuation Plans - the Fears they Create" in the September-October 1974 issue of Survive (v7, n5, pp 4-5): "If the leadership of the USSR should change and become more aggressive, it would have, under the present circumstances, a terribly tempting option: to stage an evacuation and to provoke a confrontation when this is completed." Wigner later testified to the U.S. Congressional Hearings of the Joint Committee on Defense Production, Civil Preparedness and Limited Nuclear War (28 April 1976, pp 143-7) that the principal danger: "is the possibility of the USSR evacuating its cities, dispersing their population, and the making demands on us, under the threat
of a nuclear attack, approximating those made by Hitler on Czechoslovakia which led to the Munich Pact."
The only reply Wigner received was a nonsense filled 11-page article attacking all these lessons from Russian Civil Defense, headed "Limited Nuclear War" by Sidney D. Drell and Frank von Hippel, and published in the November 1976 issue of Scientific American, the editor of which, Dennis Flanagan, refused to publish Wigner's rebuttal, entitled "We heartily disagree", just as Kahn's rebuttal to the nonsense review of his book on Civil Defense in 1961 had been refused by Scientific American, leading Kahn to expand it into his 1962 book "Thinking about the unthinkable". Wigner's and A. A. Broyles rebuttal to Scientific American was finally published instead as "We heartily disagree" in the Journal of Civil Defense, v10, pp. 4-8, July-August 1977 issue, pointing out that the Russian casualties with civil defense would be 4% on Wigner's unclassified estimate or 2% using T. K. Jones's classified data estimate (utilizing secret data on the survival of foxholes in nuclear tests, in the 1972 DNA-EM-1 Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons), and that the Russian improvised lined, covered trench shelters survive a peak overpressure of 40 psi as well as heat flash and fallout radiation, and adds that contrary to the nonsense in Scientific American, the Russians did test their plans by evacuating the city of Sevastopol in a drill which led to improvements
in their plans.
H-bomb proponent Edward Teller, Eugene Wigner, and A. A. Broyles in May 1973 had jointly authored the American Security Council report, "Without civil defense we are in a glass house", which basically argues that you can't have a deterrent for world war if you are not prepared to use that deterrent when your bluff is called. Jf you are in Chamberlain's position in 1938 or Baldwin's in 1935, you are scared of using the deterrent because it is like "throwing stones in glass houses", because - if you can't shelter people because you refuse to have shelters and you also won't have a plan to evacuate kids from London (Operation Pied Piper, 1939) before you declare war - then you can easily be scared and coerced by Hitler or other dictators, who can see clearly that your "deterrent" is a complete bluff and totally, pathetically useless, because a weapon you can't use is not a credible deterrent. Naturally, as we keep repeating on this blog, this is what the defeatists who love Putin and other dictators want since surrender has two vital steps: (1) get rid of the shield (civil defense) since that makes the sword credible as an alternative to disarmament, and (2) point out that a sword without a shield is an incredible deterrent that is useless, so we had better disarm (and surrender)! Arms control delusions like supposed "parity" (a balance of weapons on both sides, as if democracies need detering like dictatorships), when one side has credible civil defense and the other doesn't, is like a duel between two people, similarly armed, but with one wearing body armour and the other totally unprotected! Not on that, but the dictator is the one
wearing the body armour!
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DEBORAH SHAPLEY, SCIENCE, v 194, 10 Dec 1976,
issue 4270, pp. 1141-1145:
Soviet Civil Defense: Insiders Argue Whether Strategic Balance is Shaken
An emotionally charged debate, which is now erupting into the public arena, has been raging within the American in- telligence community about the Soviet Union's ability to protect its leadership, industry, and population in the event of an all-out nuclear war with the United States.
Some high officials believe that the Soviet Union is becoming so well forti- fied through its civil defense program that it could survive and recover from a nu- clear war. Therefore, they assert, the strategic balance between the two coun- tries, which has governed foreign policy and arms control for over a decade, has been upset.
But this conclusion is hotly contested in some quarters, and one official simply calls it *‘a joke.”
No matter who is right, the con- troversy seems to be rekindling dis- cussion of whether the United States should step up its civil defense effort.
The evidence that a massive, acceler- ated civil defense effort is under way in the Soviet Union is hotly disputed, but government officials who believe this is taking place cite the following to support their case:
> A gigantic, 7- to 8-million-square- foot factory hidden under a mountain, **west of the Urals and east of Moscow"’ of which the stacks, blast doors, and service roads are the only visible ele- ments. Others have also been found.
> Population shelters near apartment complexes in Moscow, Leningrad, and Kiev. These look like dirt mounds, but they have ventilation panels on top and stairwells on the side.
>» About 40 underground grain silos whose reserves are replenished period- ically to prevent spoilage.
> Approximately 30,000 blast-proof and fallout-proof shelters to protect mili- tary equipment, troops, and communica- tions. These include approximately 75 hardened underground facilities in the vicinity of Moscow. Bunkers for the Po- litburo and other elements of the lead- ership are said to be enclosed in ‘giant Steel spheres."*
> An extensive military-run civil de- fense organization led by General-Colo- nel A. T. Altunin, an aggressive, relative- ly young officer, whose rank is equal to that of the heads of the armed forces.
10 DECEMBER 1976
Altunin is said to have 78 generals under him whom American sources can identi- fy by name.
> New industrial plants in dispersed locations away from urban centers. The patterns of development follow those outlined in Soviet civil defense manuals. Several underground facilities have also been found, apparently designed to shel- ter the work force, goods, or machinery.
Within the intelligence community, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is said to be most skeptical of claims that the above findings, and other evidence, add up to a civil defense effort that milita- ry strategists and foreign policy-makers need worry about. Opposing this view is the Air Force Intelligence Service, which found some of the new evidence and which adheres to the view that the program is large enough to threaten na- tional security. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which oversees the in- telligence bureaus of the armed services and which is officially responsible for information on Soviet strategic targets, has taken a middle position.
The discussion has spread to Con- gress, where members and key staffers have received sometimes conflicting briefings, and where emotions are run-
ning high, both among those who think the whole argument is ridiculous and those who believe the United States is already Number Two. Calls for a U.S. civil defense effort, and for new strate- gic weapons have been issued; and the controversy shows every sign of gather- ing momentum in the coming year. While his boss was being briefed, for example, an aide to one conservative Republican said, with a gleam in his eye, ‘It was when I realized the Russians were Num- ber One, that I really began to worry."*
Several congressmen have been briefed by Thomas K. Jones, a Boeing Aerospace Company employee and former member of the Strategic Arms Limitations Talks (SALT) staff. Jones, with his mod style of dress, plain-spoken manner, and fervent, almost religious be- lief in the issue, has become a star wit- ness at a number of hearings. He also acknowledges that he is privy to in- telligence information on the status of Soviet civil defense. Jones claims that after a nuclear war, 98 percent of the Soviet population would survive and So- viet industry would recover in 2 to 4 years, as compared with industry in the United States, which would take 12 years to recover.
T.K. Jones testifying before the Joint Committee on Defense Production
Prominent nongovernment experts have become embroiled in the con- troversy. Former Navy Secretary Paul H. Nitze, one of the elder deans of the defense community, recently added legit- imacy to Jones's claims when, in an ar- ticle in the January issue of Foreign Af- fairs magazine, he included Jones's calcu- lations of the relative weakness of U.S.
1141
NOTE: President Reagan recruited T. K. Jones in 1980s.
ABOVE: long-haired scientist Thomas K. Jones, better known as T. K. Jones, (pictured testifying before the Joint Committee on Defense Production, in Science magazine, 10 December 1976 after his Congressional Testimony raised the wrath of crackpot Scientific American and Bulletin of Atomic Scientist fans) was the "fall guy" of Reagan's civil defense, doing the explosive tests for Boeing Corporation on Russian civil defense shelter designs and testifing on their consequences for strategic nuclear deterrence - basically debunking strategic nuclear deterrence and McNamara's/Glasstone's totally fake news on urban nuclear weapons effects
entirely, since 98% of Russians would survive the US nuclear stockpile when dispersed in shelters - which inspired Cresson Kearny's
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——t(sCS
Oak Ridge National Laboratory manual, Nuclear War Survival Skills. President Ronald Reagan, prior to his election as US President, was leaked secret CIA reports on Russian civil defense tests of shelters and evidence of their tests of city evacuation plans for instance by evacuating Sevastopol in Crimea and also, in 1975, Lytkarino (a suburb of Moscow containing 40,000 people). A clue to who helped him was shown by Reagan's decision to controversially appoint T. K. Jones as Under-Secretary for Defense for Research and Engineering! A book was then published called With Enough Shovels: Reagan, Bush and Nuclear War, ignoring the key scientific evidence entirely, and merely trying to ridicule Reagan's appoinment of T. K. Jones (who is quoted on the front cover), as a left wing Democratic supporting political instrument - like Duncan Campbell's similarly vacuous War Plan UK. This was left-politics
versus hard science. It often appears to work because Mr Joe Public loves a tall-story fairy tale!
If proof of this is needed, Robert Scheer, a fellow in arms control at Stanford University and the author of With Enough Shovels: Reagan, Bush and Nuclear War, became "Truthdig" editor-in-chief, a propagandarist who claims that ending WWII with nuclear weapons made Truman guilty of "the most atrocious act of terrorism in world history", so he needs to check his facts on the numbers gassed in the Holocaust, or starved in Ukraine by Stalin, unless he denies those deliberate acts of terrorism like the other left wing Holocaust deniers who confuse racism and anti-racism, terrorism and anti-terrorism. When you actually check the facts: (1) Secretary Stimson (U.S. Secretary of War) knew he has a secret nuclear weapons program of investment of billions of dollars to justify to Congress after WWII ended and didn't want to hold back using the bomb for that reason, so he promoted Hiroshima as being a military target (it did have military bases, particularly at Hiroshima Castle just north of ground Zero, but it was also a highly populated civilian city), (2) Hiroshima's air raid shelters were unoccupied because Japanese Army officers were having breakfast when B29s were detected far away, says Yoshie Oka, the operator of the Hiroshima air raid sirens on 6 August 1945, (3) Colonel Tibbets, former bomber of Germany before becoming the Hiroshima pilot as commander of the 509th Composite Group, explains how his pilots and crew were ridiculed heavily for lack of accomplishments, while preparing for weeks on Tinian Island. According to Tibbet's own book The Tibbets Story a poem was published before Hiroshima called "Nobody knows" lampooning the 509th's results: "Nobody knows. Into the
air the secret rose; Where they're going, nobody knows; Tomorrow they'll return again; But we'll never know where they've been. Don't
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ask us about results or such; Unless you want to get in Dutch. But take it from one who is sure of the score, the 509th is winning the war. When the other Groups are ready to go; We have a program of the whole damned show; And when Halsey's 5th shells Nippon's shore; Why, shucks, we hear about it the day before. And MacArthur and Doolittle give out in advance; But with this new bunch we haven't a chance; We should have been home a month or more; For the 509th is winning the war." Tibbets was therefore determined create maximum effects after his group had been ridiculed at Tinian Island for not attacking Japan during weeks of preparations on the island, rehearsing the secret nuclear attacks while other B29s were taking took flak trying to bomb Japan into surrender with conventional bombs. He writes in The Tibbets Story that regular morning flights of small groups of weather and phototographic survey planes that did not make significant attacks over possible nuclear target cities, helped to reduce civil defense readiness in the cities, as well as reducing the air
defense risks, since Japan was rationing its use of its limited remaining air defense in 1945.
The November 1976 Scientific American anti-civil defense article claimed that civil defense was discredited since: "In the 1960s the US adopted a strategic policy giving top priority to the prevention of nuclear war through deterrence ...", to which Wigner and Broyles responded to this claim in "We heartily disagree" in the July-August 1977 Journal of Civil Defense: "How do you deter an attack unless
you convince an enemy that you will fight the war that he is starting?"
Dictators often start wars which their people don't need: the Persian war against the Greeks, Hannibal's war against Rome, the Tartar's invasions of Europe, the Turks! invasion of Hungary, the invasions of Napoleon. You have to accept that aggression is not necessarily a completely rational activity! All that counts for deterrence is that it is credible. If you don't prepare to fight with strategic nuclear weapons, then they are just a pointless bluff, a paper tiger as the Chinese put it, not a credible deterrent. Which is precisely what the disarmers want, of course, since nuclear parity, with the shift away from credible nuclear deterrence to incredible foolery, is only one step away from
admitting the uselessness of the strategic nuclear stockpile, disarming and surrendering! UPDATE (10 March 2022): A commenter on this blog post states:
Western Trade Pressure on the Soviet Union, An Interdependence Perspective on Sanctions, Springer, 1991, by David W. Hunte, pp 14-15:
Economic Sanctions: Pre-World War II Through Cold War
"In 1925, British Foreign Secretary Austen Chamberlain stated in the League of Nations: ‘The great advantage of economic sanctions, is ... they do not involve the resort to force.’ The commonly held view was that economic sanctions were the perfect weapon to pressure states into compliance without blood being spilt or lives lost. By 1980, however, Adler-Karlsson had reached a different conclusion: economic sanctions as instruments of foreign policy almost never worked. ... . In both Britain and France, the situation was one of
choosing the least undesirable alternative."
The reality is that "sanctions work" but not in the way intended. Sanctions against Japan resulted in the surprise attack on Pearl harbor, thus war, escalating into nuclear war against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Sanctions against Nazi Germany resulted in invasions to seize wealth, and war. Sanctions against Saddam's Iraq ended in a Gulf War. So
much for sanctions being a proved alternative to deterrence.
Just one final thought on Kennedy's experience: apart from putting civil defense "nuclear shelter" signs on public building basements and putting geiger counters, food, water and emergency toilets into them to enable America to take shelter if the chips go down, apart from sending his brother to Nevada test site to watch the test firing of the W54 Davy Crocket battlefield tactical nuclear deterrent weapon in 1962, apart from standing firm on the Cuban blockage in October 1962 (instead of appeasing Khrushchev, and note that the obsolete pile of junk he removed from Turkey, the highly vulnerable liquid-fuelled old Jupiter missiles, were obsolete anyway and due to be replaced by less vulnerable Polaris sub in the Med), and apart from approving the final series of high altitude nuclear tests, Operation Fishbowl, which revealed the magnetic dipole EMP, Kennedy also rejected the economic trade sanctions against the USSR which could have forced
another war like the sanctions of the 1930s:
President John F. Kennedy, “U.S. Grain Dealers to be Allowed to Sell Wheat to Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.” U.S. Department of State Bulletin, v49, 1963, p.660-661: "It demonstrates our willingness to relieve food shortages, to reduce tensions, and to improve relations with all countries and it shows that peaceful agreements with the United States which serve the interests
of both sides are a far more worthwhile course than a course of isolation and hostility."
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by JOHN F, KeNNEDY
(The Inevitable Result of the Slow the British Democracy from a Disa) Policy.)
PREFACE
This thesis is a study devoted to one phase TABLE OF CONTE
of the most controversal subject in modern diplomacy -
the Agreement at Munich. Part I. Period of Disarmame
The word controversal does not fully express ~ Garter i —_
f bitternesses that have ’ British Pu the intensity of the hates and 8 aia, colored evaluations of the Pact. This has been due Chapter Ir Influence fact that Munich was re a decisive in risis on to the fac t Munich garded as i 1931-1932. the battle between Democracy and Fascism. For this Chapter III Influence nd t: isarmamer reason many of the political facts and judgments uvon mritiae ae which Munich was founded have been buried by a cloud Chapter “IV be as of political emotionalism. In the debate that followed from Disar armament, , Munich
the agreement, especially in America, to be pro-Munic orn nai was to be pro-Hitler and pro-Fascist; to be anti- Election; Disarmamer
Munich was to be pro-Liberal and pro-Democracy. Though time and the declaration of the war in Part II, Period of Rearmame September have alleviated much of the earlier bitter- Chapter VI The Launch armament |
4“ wo ness, the subject of Munich is still “dynamite. Upon Chapter VII Siewess's
no other topic, has the ordinary man, as well as the the Progra expert, such strong and intense opinions. Many of Chapter VIII The Penalt pert, ong n opin y the Afters
the documents and reports are still secret; until they are released it 1s impossible to give the complete story. Part III. Conclusion In this thesis it is proposed to show that most of the
Bibliography critics have been firing at the wrong target. The
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$i SEL Ot ne teeta BGeteue weak ae She ahndn 26
ABOVE: John F. Kennedy's Why England Slept manuscript dated 25 May 1940 (CREDIT: JFK LIBRARY); notice the statement above right that his conclusion is that the war was the inevitable result of the slowness of the conversion of the British disarmament policy into a policy of rearmament! John F. Kennedy's college thesis on the need for deterrence and civil defence to make it credible in the face of enemy threats and aggression (a big stick in the hands of a goliath is useless if the enemy is a David with slingshot that can stun the goliath with a stone to the forehead, allowing victory, so you need some defensive armour to make the big stick a credible deterrent rather than mere bluff that can be easily neutralised by any smaller enemy due to your vulnerabilities), Why England Slept, is still worth more than all the sanctions and peaceniks literature ever written, explaining his often forgotten speech on civil defence as a national necessity for credible deterrence of war, given as United States President to a Joint Session of Congress precisely 21 years later to the day from the completion of his book (speech on 25 May 1961, precisely 21 years to the day after the 25 May 1940 date on his manuscript above):
"No role in history could be more difficult or more important. We stand for freedom. ... | am here to promote the freedom doctrine. ... the adversaries of freedom ... send arms, agitators, aid, technicians and propaganda to every troubled area. But where fighting is required, it is usually done by others - by guerrillas striking at night, by assassins striking alone - assassins who have taken the lives of four thousand civil officers in the last twelve months in Vietnam alone - by subversives and saboteurs and insurrectionists, who in some cases control whole areas inside of independent nations. ... We stand, as we have always stood from our earliest beginnings, for the independence and equality of all nations. This nation was born of revolution and raised in freedom. And we do not intend to leave an open road for despotism. ... Military pacts cannot help nations whose social injustice and economic chaos invite insurgency and penetration and subversion. The most skillful counter-guerrilla efforts cannot succeed
where the local population is too caught up in its own misery to be concerned about the advance of communism. ...
"One major element of the national security program which this nation has never squarely faced up to is civil defense. This problem arises not from present trends but from national inaction in which most of us have participated. In the past decade we have intermittently considered a variety of programs, but we have never adopted a consistent policy. Public considerations have been largely characterized by apathy, indifference and skepticism ... this deterrent concept assumes rational calculations by rational men. And the history of this planet, and particularly the history of the 20th century, is sufficient to remind us of the possibilities of an irrational attack, a miscalculation, an accidental war, which cannot be either foreseen or deterred. It is on this basis that civil defense can be readily justifiable - as insurance for the civilian population in case of an enemy miscalculation. It is insurance we trust will never be needed - but insurance which we could never forgive ourselves for foregoing in the event of catastrophe. Once the validity of this concept is recognized, there is no point in delaying the initiation of a nation-wide long-range program of identifying present fallout shelter capacity and providing shelter in new and existing structures. Such a program would protect millions of people against the hazards of radioactive fallout in the event of large-scale nuclear attack. Effective performance of the entire program not only requires new legislative authority and more funds, but also sound organizational arrangements. Therefore, under the authority vested in me by Reorganization Plan No. 1 of 1958, I am assigning responsibility for this program to the top civilian authority already responsible for continental defense, the Secretary of Defense ... no insurance is cost-free; and every American citizen and his community must decide for themselves whether this form of survival insurance
justifies the expenditure of effort, time and money. For myself, I am convinced that it does."
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aaa ¢ ¢ e we i ‘World-Wide News Coverage wate, Birmingham Gazette Gs ce.| SSS HP SAUCE Soe ee Wek: || =e
No. 29,921 (101% YEAR) TUESDAY, 19 MAHCH, 1910 ONE PENNY
HITLER'S 11-POINT PEACE PLAN: HITLER (
Undefeated Bobcat
: Walnut Ridge Will |"! Que Wome 110 Plus Gdynia °* of the-Danube** Dumped Abroad | * siowtiaySquad) 22 ae
DUCE TOLD FUHRER Team Averages 174
Reith Required ed | =
‘ MODIFY TERMS ” 8 2 a OF SEASON) | for Good a racees noo
Giurge Ware Tells Rotary] SOT ye? FROM THE VATICAN—SEEN BY SOME AS THE “HIDDEN HAND" 5 Pit REHIND THE DIPLOMATIC MOVES THAT HAVE STARTLED EUROPE —CAME LAST NIGHT THE MOST AUTHENTIC-LOOKING OF ALL THE "SPATE OF THEORIES OVER THE HITLER-MUSSOLINI MERTING.
Hungary to be ,, ‘Pocket Poland’ ,, Confederation ,, Jews to be Vassalof Reich °°
The report said the dictators met to discuss 1 1-point peace proposals by Germany—proposals which include a Czech—Slovak—Hungarian State allied to the Reich Even as the report was issued. Count Teleki, Hungary s Prime Minister, was preparing to leave for Rome to-day.
Daily Mirror =
(ME GARY Pectin Y IYAITTO
Daily Express
a “Snes OEMAY, TLPRCART KH, te oo saaeth —._ oe Saturday, October 14, 1999
HITLER'S “LET’ 5 B ese ie Ka FRIENDS. PLEA TO WORLD ROOSEVELT TURNS = =
Spy An Exclusive DOWN ‘PEACE’ RUSE |:
fig Interview with 4 tay Mere hints by Nazis :
Ace “Daily Mirror” “| APPEAL TO REASON” must be ignore
ABOVE: Hitler propaganda and coercion so called peace offers in October 1939 and March 1940, because he knew that Britain's Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Lord Halifax, was keen on trying to negotiate a peace deal with the Nazis rather than face up to a repeat of WWI, particularly after Britain's defeat in France at Dunkirk in the face of the overpowering German Panzer attacks (radio propaganda, aided by plenty of whisky and cigars, from Churchill portrayed this retreat and evacuation from Europe as being a miracle, but although losses were minimised - thanks not to Churchill's planning but to emergency improvised evacuation across the channel using small private boats from England - Hitler won the actual battle and successfully drove the British Expeditionary Force from France). Russia in the Ist Cold War set up the World Peace Council in Moscow to fund and help Western nuclear disarmament movements to try to make its domination of the West possible by removing W79 neutron bombs etc, leaving us without a credible deterrent against Russian invasions. It simultaneously made peace propaganda offers to end war by collaboration with dictatorships, an offer that appealed to many idealists who believed it, as Lord Halifax believed Hitler's repeated peace lies. We can expect Putin to make peace promises as a
propaganda tool. If he actually wanted peace he would not have invaded Ukraine.
March 14, 2022 5:04 PM GMT https://www.reuters.com/world/un-chief-says-prospect-nuclear-conflict-back-within-realm- possibility-over-2022-03-14/
U.N. chief: prospect of nuclear conflict back 'within realm of possibility' over Ukraine By Humeyra Pamuk
March 14 (Reuters) - United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday sounded the alarm over Russia raising the alert level [weeks ago] for its nuclear forces after invading Ukraine, describing it as a "bone-chilling development." "The prospect of nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now back within the realm of possibility," Guterres told reporters, and repeated his call for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Russia's invasion of Ukraine that began on Feb. 24 has so far sent more than 2.8 million people fleeing across Ukraine's borders and trapped hundreds of thousands in besieged cities while triggering broad Western sanctions on Russia. [Actually, the so-called UN, better called the non-united nations, contributed to the war by its repeated calls for nuclear disarmament, which has had precisely the effect John F. Kennnedy found when he wrote Why England Slept from his experience in London with his dad, the American Ambassador to Britain, when deterrence failed due to Nazi propaganda on war devastation and poison gas on cities for disarmament, defeatism, and a Third Reich conquest using a minimal military force.)
https://www.ft.com/content/6cf7229b- 1aa7-435e-84d9-e3c7a0943 50d#post-5a7c0648-f48b-4cfb-al 63-95b922713201 Financial Times, 16 March 2022. Zelensky pleads with Biden for no-fly zone or fighter jets. James Politi in Washington. Ukraine’s president
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Volodymyr Zelensky pleaded for the US to enforce a no-fly zone or provide fighter jets or other means to fend off Russia’s attack on his country, in a virtual address to members of Congress on Wednesday. Zelensky urged US lawmakers to impose harsher economic sanctions on Moscow ... He called on Americans to remember the attacks on Pearl Harbor and September 2001, saying “our country is experiencing the same thing every day right now”, and showed a video of the missile attacks and shelling
destroying Ukrainian cities. ... At the end of his address, Zelensky directly addressed US president Joe Biden in English, saying: “I
wish you to be the leader of the world. Being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace.” (Loon's "peace" is the nuclear
deterrent-lacking world of 1914 or 1939.)
BANK OF JAPAN BUILDING AFTER ATTACK ON HIROSHIMA survivors extinguished fire with water buckets. U. S. STRATEGIC BOMBING SURVEY
Field Team No. 1, Hiroshima, Japan Sueet No. 2
Building No.: 24, Coordinates: 5H. Distance from
. (G2): 1,300, (AZ): 2,400. The Former Bank of Japan, Hiroshima Branch was representative of Hirashima's histo NAME: Bank of Japan, Hiroshima branch. period, with an outstanding classical-style appearance. Despite being exposed ta the A CONSTRUCTION AND DESIGN the hypocenter of the A-bornb, thanks to its sturdy structure, the bank still remains ita Type: Reinforced-concrete frame (steel core). Since the armored shutters on the first and second floors were closed at the time oft
REMARKS: Fire only in room at sout hwest corner of not badly damaged. However, the third floor, where the shutters were open, was comple — . “ on August 8, 1945, the Bank of Japan reopened for withdrawals and provided space for’
: financial institutions in Hiroshima City, which had been rendered unable to conduct bus building right after bomb, but afire at 1000 hours. jombed building that conveys its history of support for the reconstruction of Hiroshima f Fire in room in second story extinguished with water {twas used as a bank until 1992; Hiroshima City now rents it. It is mainly used as a ga buckets. inside during exhibitions.
www.arch-hiroshima.net/arch-hiroshima/arch/delta_center /nichigin_e.htm|
second story and in entire third story. No fire’ in
This was built as a branch of Nippon Ginko, Japan's central bank, in 1936 designed by in the Renaissance style with lonic colurnns. The entrance, which used to have an offic expanding space of a vaulted ceiling. The interior ornaments were lost at the tire of the
http :/iwww.hiroshima-navi.or.jp/en/sightseeing/hibaku_ireihi/tatemono/21383.php
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LA-14066-H History
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Tracing the Origins of the W76: 1966-Spring 1973 (U)
Betty L. Perkins
November 3, 2003
7. Yield: The Confetti Argument
Agnew felt that the yield of the W68 was too low to be really effective. In addition, in terms of the overall total yield available from all the W68 warheads, the W68 design was very costly in terms of the amount of required special nuclear materials.
In an April 1972 TWX to Assistant Director for Safety and Liaison (Division of Military
_ Application) Colonel Robert T. Duff, Agnew reported that he was worried about maintaining the
U.S. nuclear deterrent. Agnew noted, “It occurs to me that as we go to lower and lower yields in our strategic missile warheads and the Soviet Union builds up a better and better civil defense position, the reality of this deterrent may become questionable. (b)(3) ‘If the Soviet leadership believes
“This, then our strategic deterrefit Will have tost a-gooddeal of its force. If our MIRV trend
continues we'll be threatening to throw confetti at a potential aggressor. Confetti has high penetration and survivability but little deterrent power.”™*!
In a letter dated October 10, 1972, to Giller, at that time Assistant General Manager for National Security, Agnew again noted several reasons why low yield warheads might not be the best solution for maximizing the deterrence capability of the stockpile. He reported that considering the number of required submarines and the low efficiency in their use of special nuclear material, the low-yield warheads were not very cost effective. Moreover, Agnew pointed out that for the Hiroshima device, the effects on Hiroshima in terms of loss of substantial buildings and the people in them “wasn’t all that impressive.” In terms of loss of life, the USSR had lost more than ten million people in WWIL Although the Soviets had an extensive civil- defense network in place, even if that did not work to reduce loss of civilian lives, the Soviets might not mind losing a few people. Agnew wrote, “Again, to me, to continue to increase warhead numbers at the cost of a decrease in yield per warhead could eventually lead to no deterrence in the minds of those we hope to deter.” Agnew stated, “I feel very strongly that we ance endeavor to convince the DoD that what they should have on the next round is a mix of yields.
78H. M. Agnew, University of California, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, Los Alamos, N.M. to BY3/Colonel Robert T. Duff, USAF, Assistant Director for Safety and Liaison, Division of Military Application USAEC, Wash., D.C. (SRD) (April 14, 1972), pp. 1-2, B11, Drawer 56, Folder 1 of 4.
(b)(3)
LA-14066-H AAP EI OL VI-69
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Te |
ABOVE: Hiroshima ground zero showing surviving concrete buildings amid the debris from now-obsolete wood frame (with tiled roof) buildings that burned in a firestorm that developed 30 minutes after the bombing, not instantly as claimed in approximately 100% of newspaper and TV fake news propaganda on nuclear weapons for disarmament - a Los Alamos nuclear weapons jobsworth and coward called Dr Harold Agnew exposed only in SECRET classified documents the exaggerations of nuclear weapons effects on people on modern concrete city buildings in Hiroshima with a "Confetti argument" - see the originally SECRET Los Alamos report LA- 14066-H, Tracing the Origins of the W76: 1966-Spring 1973 (U) by Betty L. Perkins, thereby preventing widespread public understanding of the truth, and so enabling anti-nuclear media dominating anti-civil defence pro-disarmament pro-dictatorship liars to deceive the world about nuclear weapons capabilities just as the 30s poison gas media dominating anti-civil defence pro-disarmament pro- dictatorship liars to deceive the world about the Nazi threat to gas bomb all modern cities, etc. This anti-nuclear disarmament propaganda effort is still covering-up the hard scentific facts on nuclear radiation effects for everything from medicine to nuclear power, such as the extensive evidence (see the graph below from the still-maintained website of U.S. Government's radium dial painter dos-effects project investigator, the late Dr Robert E. Rowland, 1923-2017) that there is a dose-rate threshold for cancer of approximately 100 micro-Sieverts per hour or 10 mR/hour in old units (from an intake of 100 microcuries of radium-226 alpha emitter or its
equivalent), summarised as follows by study leader Dr Robert Rowland in his published 1995 Oral History interview:
"Two of the things that most people haven't realized on the induction of malignancies by radium deposited in a human [are], one, how few there are and, two, the fact that, whether we like it or not, they are the best definition of a threshold relationship that I've ever come across. ... an initial systemic intake of less than about 75 microcuries of radium that's systemic intake, which is one-fifth of the total intake has never induced a malignancy, either bone sarcoma or carcinoma of the air cells. ... [Radium-226 radiation dose threshold for effects is] 75 microcuries, systemically, which is five times that in terms of oral ingestion, or 75 if you inject it with a needle in the vein. ... if you quote rem, 20,000 [assuming relative biological effectiveness, RBE = 20 for alpha particles, i.e. alpha dose in rem or cSv = 20 x alpha dose in rads or cGy]. ... I mean, I [grew] up with the idea that 600 rad, to the whole body, was lethal. And then I go talking about, "But we've never seen a malignancy under 20,000 rem, or 1,000 rads, of radiation." You know, you don't even get a malignancy, yet you kill someone with 600 rads! ... This population of people we've measured, if we line them up in order of initial systemic intake, how much radium got into the bloodstream, and put them in pecking order — of the 2,400, all of the malignancies occur in the highest 280 cases. The lower 2,100 cases, nothing. All of it occurs right there. ... which is another way of saying, "It sure looks like a threshold relationship." ... As you well know, several years ago, it was proposed that
the radium levels in drinking water be changed significantly upward. ... It's one of these mandates of our Congress that have
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insisted that a certain level was God-given, and we had better not have more than that in our water. ... And, incidentally, you may not be aware, radium in water is causing a big problem, not in drinking, [but] in the oil industry ... When you pump oil, water comes up. That comes from way down, and it's loaded with radium. ... If you own an oil well that has four miles of pipe going down, each one 30 feet long and 3 inches in diameter, when they scale up [with calcium carbonate deposits] you don't throw them
[away], you pull them and clean them out. This went on for years, until somebody discovered they contained radium in the scale."
Note the two red lines drawn on this plot; the vertical line is drawn at the year 1926, the PRE horizontal one at an Initial Systemic Intake value of 100 pCi. There are no malignancies 10000 -
(red diamonds) in or after 1926, indicating that no dial painter who started after this date
ever experienced one of the known radium-induced malignancies. There are no red
diamonds below the horizontal line drawn at 100 yCi, indicating that an intake of greater
than 100 uCi is required to induce the radium-induced malignancies.
The complete measurement of radium in the body of a dial painter yields two values, 1000 -
one for Ra-226 and one for Ra-228. Since the ratio of Ra-228 to Ra-226 might vary
with each batch of paint being used, it was not possible to compare radium cases on the * basis of the quantity of radium within the body. What was needed was a method of “ defining a “radium equivalent”, so all measured cases could be expressed in the same ad units. It has been determined that, per microcurie (uCi) of intake, Ra-228 is 2.5 times a
as effective as Ra-226 in inducing bone sarcomas. Thus a unit, Initial Systemic Intake’, a4 may be used to define the risk of the induction of a bone sarcoma in a given dial painter. 100 5
It is the sum of the activity of Ra-226, in pCi, that entered the body plus two and a half times the activity of Ra-228, in uCi, that entered the body.
https://digital.library.unt.edu/search/?q3=%22Rowland%2C%20R.%
20E.%22&t3=untl_ agent&src=ark&searchType=advanced
Rowland, R. E., Stehney, A. F., and Lucas, H. F., Jr.: Dose-response relationships for female radium dial workers, Rad. Research, 76: 368-383 (1978).
Stehney, A. F., H. F. Lucas, R. E. Rowland. Survival times of women radium dial workers first exposed before 1930. In: Late Biological Effects of lonizing Radiation. proceedings of |.A.E.A. Symp., Vienna 1: 333-351. (1978).
SYSTEMIC INTAKE IN MICROCURIES = a
Stehney, A. F. Survival times of pre-1950 U.S. women radium dial workers. Proceedings of the International Seminar "Health effects of internally deposited radionuclides: emphasis on radium and thorium", Heidelberg, Germany, pp. 149-155. (1994).
Rowland, R. E. Radium in Humans: A Review of U. S. Studies. Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Ill. (1994).
https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc708597/
0.01 + SOURCE: http://www.rerowland.com/Dial_Painters.pdf 1910
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ABOVE: Blast duration effects on cube root scaling are only important at low yields, not high yields, as observed for house damage in
Britain, based on actual observations, not faked "theoretical analyses" used for propaganda for anti-nuclear disarmament scare mongering,
which is designed to try to discredit civil defense using lies in order for disarmament and surrender to be the "only option" for survival.
The blood of the Ukrainian kids must be partly on the hands of those who permitted the circulation of nuclear deterrent lies to remove Ukaine's nuclear deterrent against Russian aggression. What a terrible people keep the truth secret, thereby allowing public deceptions by political left-wing thugs for nuclear disarmament to enable dictatorships to launch lethal invasions with effective impunity. Other warhead histories by Betty Perkins include LA-13755-H: Tracing the Origins of the Modern Primary: 1952-1970 (U), LA-12950-H: Why Nougat? (U) Understanding the Events Leading to the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory's First Full-Scale Underground Test Series and Related Considerations (U), and LA-12393-H: The 1959-1961 TA-49 Experiments and Related Considerations (U).. Don't expect to ever see anything like this published on the front page of any Western so-called newspaper or as the lead item in any Western TV "news" show. They carefully screen out anything that upsets the nuclear warmongers who don't care about provoking another war through disarmament lies, as they did in the 20s and 30s, because the Western public want to
be protected from reality until it breaks through their comfort zone and kicks their ass, as happened to Ukraine after it
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Housing damage DERIVATION OF THE BRITISH EXPLOSIVES SAFE
JARRETT, DE. (1968). Derivation of the British explo- — Annals ofthe New York Academy of DERIVATION C sives safety distances. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 152(art 1), S“ienees D.E. Jarrett® SAFETY DISTA!
Volume152, Issuel . _, D.E. Jarrett 18 October 1968 — Suolem First publishe: A scaling relation for blast damage to housing has been Pages 18-35. iven by Jarrett (1968): 8 yJ ( ) 1, RESPONSIBILITY pws Cube-root damage Explosives are manufactured and stored in Britain by priva R=—-——— . Government, the former being mainly interested in mining e! ee (2p0) scaling becomes technics, and the latter normally in military explosives. The coordinating body for determining safety distances
valid for high yields! Storage and Transport Committee (E.S.T.C.) which prescrit
; ; ; applicable for both the civil and military interests (E.S.T.C. where R is the distance (ft), Wthe mass of explosive (Ib) and a other safety practices for military explosives. This C
ka constant. The constant k defines the degree of damage analogue of the Armed Services Explosives Safety Board. which may be expected to the average British dwelling
house. It is based on the analysis of damage in 24 well- 2. BAsis documented explosions and in wartime bombing. The fol-
lowing categories of damage are defined: In determining safety distances, the approach has been:
(1) to assume that an explosion will take place at some til (2) to arrive at an acceptable degree of risk to persons |
k erty in such an event. The term ‘Safety Distance’ is somewhat of a misnomer | Almost complete demolition 9.5 assumes that once outside the safety distance there is no da 50—75% external brickwork destroyed or 14 property. Since all the variables that determine safety are ci rendered unsafe and requiring demolition tance, this is rarely, if ever, true. Certainly in a small count C Houses uninhabitable — partial or total 24 impossible always to use distances at which the effects are collapse of roof, partial demolition of one or many types of explosive, damage beyond the safety distance
ra fecnal ella eevere a per The more familiar term quantity-distance seems preferable a wo external walls, severe damage to Load- the remainder of this paper.
bearing partitions requiring replacement Probably the first systematic experimentation on determi
5 1 H distance relationships was carried out by Burlot (1932), and ii Example: 2 Mt yield, of which any of his conclusions have been discounted, although som O/ |; H tested will not be found in modern military usage. 50% is blast (i.e. 1 Mt blast) The existing quantity-distance relationships date from 194 gives A radius of 2.34 miles, B
lot data having been much extended by data derived from st r = be N ies. of 3.45 miles, C of 5.91 miles. a
war damage, from subsequent trials, and latterly by exchai surrendered its nuclear deterrent for loads of lies on a piece of paper which has now proved no more valuable than worthless
De
paper peace promise which Hitler signed on 30 September '38.
ABOVE: in 1979, the basic data on yield, weight and configuration of various nuclear devices including data on the primary stages Swan (Redwing-Inca, 15.2 kt W45, 11.6 by 22.8 inches, 105 |b; also tested as the primary stage inside the successful 360 kt Redwing-Mohawk thermonuclear test) and Swallow (Redwing-Kickapoo, 1.49 kt, 8 by 28 inches, 225 lb), and megaton range thermonuclear device Bassoon (Mk41 Redwing-Tewa, 5.01 Mt, 87% fission, 39 by 135.5 inches, 15,735 Ib; and in its cleaner form Redwing-Zuni, 3.53 Mt, 15% fission, 39 by 135.5 inches, only weighing 12,158 lb due to replacement of U238 with lead, which - contrary to populist myths - is not entirely useless or inert since lead does undergo a beryllium-like (n,2n) reaction for T+D fusion neutrons with energy exceeding 10 MeV, with the (n,2n) lead neutron cross-section reaching 2 barns for 14.1 MeV neutrons), and the use of plastic foams to reflect and channel X-rays for the ablative compression of thermonuclear fusion stages, with tested design results (rated in megatons per metre length of fusion cylindrical stage), was disclosed in report UCRL-4725, Weapon Development During June, 1956. This was after having been mistakenly declassified 4 years earlier, on 30 July 1975. Only 56 copies of this secret report were printed, and the whole report was declassified accidentally when only pages 23-29 should have been released. Bassoon worked like the Mike and Castle devices, which were basically Teller 1946 Classic superbomb cylinders of thermonuclear fuel ignited at one end, but sideways compressed by x-ray ablative compression on the cylindrical surface rather than end-on heating through a beryllium shield as Teller has envisioned in 1946, utilizing a relatively low yield fission primary stage to initiate the thermonuclear burn. Howard Agnew told Richard Rhodes (Dark Sun, 1995) that in the 1952 Mike device, a layer of plastic foam was attached to the lead lining on the inside of the casing of weapons to act as "x-ray mirrors", preventing the ablative blow-off of metal into the radiation channel by x-rays. However, the British designer - Brian Taylor - of the first successful 1.8 megaton spherical secondary stage test in 1957 on TV recently reported that their devices used plastic foams filling the entire x-ray radiation channel, in order to allow isotropic (uniform from all directions) ablation of the pusher around the spherical fusion stage, which would be harder to achieve by x-ray mirrors than was the case for the simpler cylindrical
geometry of the fusion stage used by Teller in Mike. According to the June 1967 Sandia Corporation's originally secret thermonuclear
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SEG
aay
“TF TE Phim document contains 29 pages.
This is copy BC of FE Series 7 .
RET
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Revealing re was declassi
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
Radiation Laboratory, Livermore Site Livermore, Californie
Contract No, W-7405-eng-48
WEAPON DEVELOPMENT DURING JUNE NO. 24
July 12, 1956
RESTRICTED DATA
This document Containg restricted data a® defined in the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, Me tranermuttal of the disclosure of th Contents in any on eutherized person is prohibited,
oe eee eee eee te ee *. ie Ye mi Ei
i
BOTH ‘SECRET’ AND ‘DECLASSIFIED’ STAMPS WERE ON COVER Researcher: report more revealing than controversial article
Shooting victim is identified
The Contra Costa County coroner today identified a body found near a country road as that of Michael Allan Frantz, 25, of Pinole.
Frantz, also known as Michael Allan Lewis, was found lying alongside Hampton Road yesterday morning,
ateerr to an une
By Brian J. Kelly Sun-
1956
DATA
thermon weapons,” he said. “It goes far Morland. It contains the results of actual deton: thermonuclear devices.”
Chicago Sun-Times
spokesman for the laboratory, David Moore, declassification order specified that only pages 23 th A coroner's spokesman said it were to be declassified and that “a clerk apparent! appears Frantz had been shot in the mistake.” abdomen and dumped beside the road The document is a status report detailing r Jess than 24 hours before he was found. ongoing experiments on nuclear weapons tests for . The sheriff's department is investi: — during the early stages of H-bomb development gating the death. There are descriptions of the Swan and Swal
weapons development history (extract below), the new Los Alamos Maniac I computer's first task in 1952 was to determine "... the flow of
radiation pressure along channels between fission and fusion components of the bomb ..."
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t
We. of
(eel UNCLASSIFIED gerne an
DCS FILE
. WEL ¥ KV} ) te
WecAssiFieD
Double layer of plastic x-ray baffles used in the 1956 Redwing XW-27 test
Rather than the x-rays simultaneously compressing the whole cylinder (which is what Hansen and Morland show in their illustrations, ignoring the time factor), the thermonuclear burning wave - if the x-rays are slowed down by plastic foam filling the radiation channel - propagates along the cylinder beginning at the end nearest the primary stage: by having a sufficient "spark plug" of fissile material in the core (both to irradiate compressed LiD with neutrons, fissioning some of the lithium into tritium, and also to provide heat to initiate fusion in the compressed fusion fuel), a self-sustaining burning wave could be established, so that you could increase the yield simply by making the cylinder longer (the Bassoon was increased up to 25 megatons in the W41, five times the Tewa test yield!). In such a design, the role of plastic foam blocking the radiation channel, is to deliberately prevent the rather limited primary stage x-ray energy yield from being diluted excessively by flowing over the vast surface of the secondary stage cylinder, which would reduce the compression and lead to secondary stage fizzle. The whole point of the hydrogen bomb is to get away from the critical mass yield-limiting problem of fission weapons, and you can't do that if there is no way to control the spread of the vital x-ray radiation from a primary stage when you have a very large secondary stage to compress. The diagram below applies to the basic W41, but note that the neutron shield between the primary and secondary stage is there to prevent pre-initiation of fission in the core spartplug of the secondary, cylindrical stage, but in a very clean weapon like 95% clean, 5% fission Redwing-Navajo, there is no spark plug so the neutron shield is replaced with a neutron channel to allow primary stage neutrons to fission lithium, producing tritium in the secondary stage, prior to its compression. Furthermore, Bassoon's 15% and 87% fission yield versions showed the effect on both bomb yield and mass of replacing the U238 ablative pusher around the fusion clyinder with lead to make it much cleaner. The results showed that doing this drops the mass from 15,735 to 12,158 Ib, while only reducing yield from 5.01 to 3.53 megatons. Moreover, while you get an area of 520 square miles giving a fallout dose over the first 50 hours of 1000 R (survivable indoors with the shielding provided by most city buildings) for the "dirty" version, this drops to only about 150 R for the "cleaner" version, for land equivalent surfaces outdoors. As a result, details of nuclear warhead designs were published in various books and articles. At this point (if not in 1949 with Fuchs, Greenglass and other spies giving Stalin the bomb "for peace"), sensible people realise that "secrecy" markings on documents sooner or later fail to protect you from dictators, so you
instead need credible nuclear deterrence and civil defense.
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PLASTIC X-RAY MIRROR AND SHIELD PREVENTS PRIMARY STAGE X-RAY ENERGY BEING DILITED TO LOW ENERGY DENSITY OVER ENTIRE CYLINDER, BEFORE BURN CAN START
X-RAY CHANNEL
PARTIAL FILLING OF RADIATION CHANNEL WITH X-RAY ABSORBING (AND RE-RADIATING, OR MIRRORING) PLASTIC FOAM ENABLES THE LIMITED X-RAY YIELD FROM PRIMARY STAGE (ON LEFT) TO BE CONCENTRATED ON STARTING THE FUSION BURN IN THE LIMITED SECTION OF THE SCONDARY STAGE CYLINDER NEAR THE PRIMARY STAGE, INSTEAD OF BEING DISSIPATED ALONG THE ENTIRE WEAPON CASE, WHICH WOULD REDUCE COMPRESSION AND CAUSE FAILURE.
H>
INITIAL FUSION REGION (NOT ENTIRE CYLINDER); FUSION “BURN”, ONCE STARTED IN LIMITED REGION, THEN PROPAGATES RIGHTWARDS IN THE MANNER OF THE 1946 TELLER SUPERBOMB, BUT WITH COMPRESSION.
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REPORT OF THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY The W-88, a miniaturi
Late 1970s: PRC steals classified design information on W70 “neutron bomb.”
Mid 1990s: U.S. learns PRC
acquired U.S. technical informa-
tion on insensitive high explo-
sives used in nuclear warheads.
1995: “Walk-in” document
confirms the theft of information
on the U.S. W-88 sometime between 1984 and 1992, and on the W-62, W-76, W-78, and W-87 sometime prior to 1995.
1997: U.S. learns that in 1985
the PRC stole, through Peter
Lee, classified information on miniaturized nuclear tests.
~ SELECT COMMITTEE OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
105TH CONGRESS, 2d Session, REPORT 105-851, May 25, 1999 The PRC has obtained classified information on the following U.S. thermonuclear warheads, as well as a number of associated reentry vehicles (the hardened shell that protects the thermonu- clear warhead during reentry).
U.S. NUCLEAR MISSILE CURRENTLY DEPLOYED Trident D-5 SLBM Yes Peacekeeper ICBM Yes Minuteman Ill (Mark 12A) ICBM Yes Trident C-4 SLBM Yes Lance SRBM No Minuteman Ill ICBM Yes Minuteman Il ICBM No
1988: PRC tests
neutron bomb.
Chemical explosive Beryllium — Plutonium-239 ae
Foam
Deuterium-tritium (DT) gas
MIRV length: 5.7 feet Explosive power: 300,000 tons of TNT
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Uranium-238 case
MIRV base diameter: 1.8 feet
weapon the United States ha: marine-launched ballistic m United States learned about 1 well as about the theft of infc
he PRC has stolen U.S for neutron bomb wai the neutron bomb from a U. theft of this classified inforn
In the late 1970s, the F from the Lawrence Livermo theft several months after it may be used either as a strat weapon (“neutron bomb”’). °
he stolen U.S. nuclea monuclear weapons 0 targeted on U.S. cities are | stolen U.S. technology, the strategic nuclear capabilitie:
The “Walk-In”
In 1995, a “walk-in” ay PRC and provided an officia information on the W-88 Tr as well as technical informa’
The CIA later determi: gence services. Nonetheless reviewed the document coi design information.
The “walk-in” docume ed the state-of-the-art again sured.
Fusion device
Uranium-238 or 235 Lithium deuter (fusion fuel)
“neutr nation The P| U.S. th reentr clear v
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CHAIN OF EVENTS
INCIDENT RADIATION
Xx — em ion > > par
n—+pt
|, 19-10 sec ale 10-5 sec shee to years =
molecular » biological damage effect
Learning and Memory
Task avoidance
50 after radiation 40 Mean Latency 30 T - T (sec) 29 10 0 sham 0.1 10 10 100
Dose (rads)
Retrograde amnesia produced on passive avoidance task
(Wheeler & Hardy.
Curiosity
10 Le—elrradiated (N*12) @* Controls (N=4) Mental effects of
radiation on monkeys
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Accumulated Roentgen Dose
SOURCE: US Defense Nuclear Agency, “Medical effects of nuclear weapons”, report HRE-856, Opennet: 16004637.
WR2721 reduces the radiation LD50 (lethal dose for 50%) in mice bya 99 massive factor of 2.7 (Side effects are hypotension & hypocalcemia)
+ Fewer fatalit + May sugg
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Influence of Clinical Support and Cytokine Therepy RADIATION DOSES TO UNIFORML
on Survival of Irradiated Canines
MILITARY PERSONNEL EXPO TACTICAL NUCLEAR WE
90 NEGLIGIBLE oF “ : RISK
70 Won Support. Clinical ,, Cytokine Percent co “Support |¢ Therapy , (50 rads) Mortality LDeg= LDcg= ¢ LDso =
30 260 cGy »"o 338 cGy 450 cGy
oe °
10 : /
5
3
1
45¢
250
300 Dose (cGy)
350 400
MIDLETHAL (450 rads
CURRENT NUCLEAR F
Survival With Vitamin E CRITERIA fitamin E scavenges free radicals Vv i 100% ex Renm_€ DOSE (rads) CASUALTY
Yi 18,000 immediate Perman N . 75% = "S 8,000 Immediate Perman: Control ~ (physically demi 850 R* | 850 R Immediate Transie 5u% - coy ' 3,000 im ransie| A. 650 Latent Lethality 2 9g BEHAVIORAL INCAP, Contrer’.... : AS A FUNCTION OF RA 750 R -s---.-.-- Rane se 1983) ° 4 8 12 16 20 24 = 28 80 Days WR2721 Cancer 60 drug used against WR 2721 Percent radiation effects 40
© Most Studied Radioprotectant
10 500
1000
Dose (c
Modeling the Effects of Nuclear Weapons in an Urban Setting
Radiation Countermeasures Symposium An AFRRI 50™ Anniversary Event
Kyle Millage, CHP, PE Applied Research Associates, Inc. 4
15 June 2011
CLASSIFIED
How do These Prompt Effects Alter our Casualty Expectations?
LS aaa
prompt circles of blast, thermal and radiation
environments in an open field will significantly over-estimate the
effects in an urban setting
han you might have expected
will be more alties entering the medical
system than you might have
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Catastrophic, but Potentially Survivable a - SS SS ee ea
+ One of the most c ante hic ‘ ncidents that could befall the United States (US), causing enormous loss Planning Guidance of life and
‘operty and severely for Precense 5.5 damaging econom 5 Nuclear
mc viability, sa nuclear detonation in a us city
+ DHS National Planning Scenario Arad bane (NPS) #1 (10 kT Improvised Nuclear ‘peae Device (IND) Attack), is being used in Geohgnt wo es Shatend nomene test national, Federal, State, and loca’ TSS 7 homeland security preparedness i taeae
activities 0@2e0eQr
“Ce ac ——
* Air Blast is Significantly Perturbed by *y Urban Terrain
Thermal Radiation is Also Significantly Modified in an Urban Setting c’ =a = = eee
INGLASSIEIED
Significant Reduction in Total Dose ee
Dose (cGy)
' i 4 1 Distance from
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USSBS Report 92, v2] mars | reao Hiroshima buildings| “mle” | infect
Multistory, earthquake-resistant ------ 0. 03 500 Multistory, steel- and _reinforced-
concrete frame (including both
earthquake- and non-earthquake-
resistant construction) eee ee . 05 700
1-story, light, steel-frame_-_-_-__-_-_--_-- 3. 4 5, 500 Multistory, load-bearing, brick-wall - - 3. 6 5, 700 1-story, load-bearing, brick-wall - --- -- 6.0 7, 300 Wood-frame _industrial-commercial
(dimension-timber construction) -___ 8.5 8, 700 Wood-frame domestic buildings
(wood-pole construction) ---..----- 9. 5 9, 200 Residential construction_____________ 6. 0 7, 300
WA105824 ONA S893 ‘Gese-tregent tnjerion GLASS FRAGMENT HAZARD FROM WINDOWS Nerv. BROKEN BY AIRBLAST ») es | | 9. ots. j & vteren stanp j ed 4 | omens ig Rew 2 Sess os dsl — ©; = a 2° “- ~ i DUCK AND COVER 9 6 AP i Se E aremtcn wee 4 FH stde-os sheep } feces J : rw oN - hs | ts
SURVIVORS PERCENT
TELEGRAPH CRTKCE TELEPHONE OFFICE 474
7 PO SAMINGS OFMICE 750 m — ——d
is ROM GROUND ZERO
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Tams ITs respoase table for military equipment and personnel — (for 20 KT and 1 KT weapon)
| Equipment sealed pat to be fora expected —EEE 85 Mosierat Heavy tanks 3S Light le Scout cars .. 2 Severe is Moserate 7 Light B vehicles .. 21 Severe 4 Moderate Field artillery (in open) 3 | Stee ry (in open) .. FH Field artitiery (in » A right evans o . 3s Moderate Hea Gideon). Fd Severe eee aie | 4 Moderate aioe 4 Moderate 4 — | me oe © | Severe LMG embrasure and sheit=s .. 7 rh Light Main trench % | Severe Aircraft parked— Domber =... 142 | ( Dependingon ighter 2 17 Sono ry os - “” . r Aiucraft airborne .. . . was M447 a Mes (bet remember wher accurpanying effects) Injury level to be expected Mea in sl 8 130 | Sev standing in open | 8 3 Severe sti ao] gd le Mea or Severe o oT 14 Moderate 6 Light | Men in revetted trenches » 28 ~— | Moderate 8 Bb Lighs Damage level criteria for equipment |
1. Light damage —Will_ sot interfere sexicusly with immediate use, Will require some repair to restore to full ese, 2. Moderate damaye,—Requires repair facilities available in feld workshops, | | J, Severe demage — Requires base repair. i___ —— | For wssociated dynamic pressures, see Table Hil. 2 Nommalized for noo-dlesert terrain,
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Nazi liar:
We, the German FUhrer and Chancellor and the British Prime Minister, have had a further meeting today and are agreed in recognising that the question of Anglo-German relations is of the first importance for the two countries and for Europe.
We regard the agreement signed last night and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement as symbolic of the desire of our two peoples never to go to wer with one another again.
We are resolved that the method of consultation shall be the method adopted to deal with any other questions that may concern our two countries, and we are determined to continue our efforts to remove possible sources of difference
and thus to contribute to assure the peace of
e /,
Europe.
Webdonshen Do. SSP -
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_s —_ a
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For a nuclear weapon, the radius of the ionized region,a, produc- M. H. OLESON, "OPERATION IV) ing the electromagnetic pulse was estimated from the relation SCIENTIFIC DIRECTOR, ELECTF EXPLOSIONS," nuclear weapon
FIGURE 15: EMP
4.55 x 1072 a exp {25 (1-exp (-0.1254a] } a4) WAVEFORM FROM
yield Mt 500 KILOTON KING effective radius, Kilometers.
ENIWETOK TEST IN 1952, RECORDED AT MAUI.
4 Pein
_ 30008 1- ie =. fal’ 0 0.10. . - Page 9: "During Ranger (Nevadz
eter excursions were noted on a Bru
= peak electric field, volts/m crystal diode. Hastily-planned m feet during Greenhouse (Eniwetok, « = effective radius,te with sharp rise times coinciden’ devices. In the Fall of 1951 (Nev: R = distance, feet effects which could be fairly we e predic ted reliably. were reported by stations at var
horizontal component points.”
d not Db -frequency magnetic fields coul
tne cae! tok value for the high-frequency was estimated from the equation:
jy wee (2a (1.4) ” Re
= horizontal component, oersteds
= distance, kilometers
(rms)
W = yiel d ’ Mt > ABOVE: surface burst EMP data from pages 16-17 of POR-2239 / weapon test report WT-2239, by 5 P. J. Sykes, Jr., "Operation Sunbeam, Project Small Boy, Project Officers Report - Project 7.1.4, Transient Radiation Effects Measurements on Guidance Systems Circuits", DTIC AD-A995 378. 3.2.1 Shot Tewa, During Shot Tewa, the sixteenth of the seventeen Redwing test shots, oo the aircraft was 06 naut mi (178 km) south of the detonation, at the 18,000-foot altitude which was usual for the flights. The signals received on the two fiducial antennas were both shown in the dual-beam oscilloscope, Type 333. The amplified signal from the smaller fiducial antenna, mounted inside the aircraft on the window rack, was displayed on Channel A, while Channel B displayed the signal {rom the larger antenna, mounted outside the aircraft skin. +s Operation Redwing, Nuclear Weapon test report WT-1352 AJ. Waters, OPERATION REDWING-PROJECT 6.4 AIRBORNE ANTENNAS sect = A. Glenn Jear > Preliminary R: a DTIC report A -0 Fig. ° ead ‘eo iso 200 i ad Vette Meter ot OOKM i iy r ™ » period tn ineesegeenie. = 4 ROMEO 5.01 Mt, 87% Microseconds Powe 14 Empirical relation between detonation yield and the field strength Figere 1,2 Empirical curve relating detonation yield and the pertod Maui, 4 fission, 178 km Figure 3.2 Shot Tewa ‘Se electromagnetic pulse, referred to & range of 100 km ($4 naut el). of the electromagnetic pulse. Pein
EMP measured from the 5.01 megaton, 87% fission Redwing-Tewa surface burst, Bikini Atoll, 1956 (source: ADA995297)
Figure 3.37 Experimental signal, tape, Shot Bighorn. Figure 3.33 Experimental signal, tape, Shot Rinconada. Figure 3.32 Experimental signal, tape, Shot Har!
BIGHORN: USS LOYALTY RINCONADA: USS LOYALTY HARLEM: USS LOYALTY
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pper-loop, lower-whip Upper-loop, lower-whip pper- p, lower-wnip : n Sweep speed, 0.1 msec/cm
Reagan tells Soviet jokes
Answering FAQs about the Nuclear Test Films
ABOVE: Dr Gregg Spriggs of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, who gave Hans Rosenwinkel (producer and director) a PBS
America TV interview recently (in the 2021 TV documentary on the Bravo test, called "Burning Sky", first broadcast on PBS America digital channel in the UK on 26 June 2021 after being broadcast 3 days earlier in the USA; we taped it for personal use but due to copyright cannot upload it to youtube), claiming that water spray in most Pacific nuclear tests led to yield underestimates so Bravo would be 22 megatons not 15 megatons, leading - if correct - to even greater reduction in the measured effects of nuclear weapons of given megaton yields shown in Glasstone's book: "They did their best back in the 1950s ... on Bravo they had adjusted the analysis somewhat ... when you do a shot over water, as the shock wave moves out it picks up water and it makes the shock wave heavier, so we think now that the yield of Bravo - and in fact the yield of all of the barge shots that were done in the Pacific - were about 27-50% higher than what was originally reported, so Bravo, instead of being 15 megatons, might actually have been on the order of 22 megatons!" (We're not updating the Pacific nuclear tests yield data on this blog until we see the reports with hard data on this, because the 1950s yields were also substantiated by radiological yield from fission product and actinide samples in fallout, which doesn't depend on shock wave data or fireball expansion films! However, this claim about H-bomb yields in the Pacific being underestimates is interesting, and Dr Spriggs may well have secret-classified reports hidden from public view, with more data which will eventually be declassified and become available. If indeed the total fireball expansion-derived yields are higher, then the percentage fission yields - derived from fallout sample analyses - must be smaller by a similar factor, which would have huge implications for not just nuclear weapons effects but also for constants in the semi-empirical models of nuclear weapon designs for megaton yields!) He has also put some recently restored films of nuclear test explosions on youtube. The most interesting, in view of the photo of the "upright" test configuration of the 5 megaton Redwing-Tewa bomb at Bikini in 1956 (see photos at the top of this blog post for a pic of the Mk41 Tewa test prior to testing) shows the primary stage being ejected vertically upwards out of the fireball and creating a second smaller fireball above the main fireball produced by the main cylindrical secondary stage (which is heavier and nearer to the ground), an effect analogous to that seen in the 1962 Starfish test (basically the two stages are exchanging radiation which causes them to recoil apart as the weapon case vaporizes, and
the lighter primary stage gains the most velocity, due to straightforward conservation of momentum):
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Nuclear lightning discharge at 25 ms after 5 megaton 87% fission Tewa
a
Tewa’s primary stage is ejected upwards, approaching top of fireball:
Tewa’'s primary stage has erupted out of top of main (2nd stage) fireball!
FIGURE 7-2 Q001011R 7s primary stage at
Operation Redwing - Tewa 37369
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Operation Redwing - Tewa 37363
Operation Redwing - Tewa 37373
Operation Redwing - Tewa 37376
ABOVE: Bravo's 1 kiloton x ray channeled fireball travelling in vacuum pipes towards Station 1200 at 2,286 metres (1.4 miles)
distance. Most high quality versions of films and photos showing such interesting weapons effects are still classified because they contain interesting information on the effects which are denied public viewing, along with EMP waveforms showing transit times between fission and primary stage ignitions. Station 1200 at 1.4 miles from Bravo survived 130 psi, despite being designed for just 50 psi from a yield of just 6 megatons. If Dr Gregg Spriggs is correct to claim that Bravo's real yield was 22 megatons (rather than 14.8 megatons), it will mean that a structure designed to survive 50 psi can survive at 1.4 miles from a 22 megaton bomb, which is
even more impressive than 15 megatons.
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15 megaton Bravo: nuclear lightning bolt to right of fireball
SP the . Se
PT RE
1 kt of energy channeled in the 12 vacuum pipes towards Station 1200 from the Bravo bomb casing, creating the secondary fireball visible moving —_
leftwards from ground zero in this film. Stirling Colgate in Los Alamos . - Science magazine in 2003 (issue 28, 2003, Figure 1 on page 39) explains: "Less obvious was a late worry that a ‘fireball’ of energy might travel along the pipe lines [just as X-ray energy flows like a fluid from the primary to the secondary stage within a thermonuclear weapon]. ... Later pictures showed a fireball of 1 , a
kt equivalent energy travelling along the pipe lines..." —~ a - 6 April 2022: ’ 7 3
/The roots of the present crisis are covered in General
“
ems AZ §
Third World War, Book Club Associates, 1978. Hackett was an Australian born Oxford classics and history scholar, who went into the British Army when Hitler went off the deep end in 1939, being wounded while leading a parachute brigade against the Nazis at Arnhem. He ended up NATO Commander of the British Army on the Rhine, when he started a political war with the British Government by writing a famous letter in The Times complaining that NATO was under resourced and needed strengthening to resist Russia. He survived that by claiming he was wearing his NATO hat, not his British Army hat, when writing the letter (the British Army bans its employees from writing politics in the press, whereas NATO doesn't). After retirement he became Principal of King's College, London, and then wrote The Third World War to point out the risk of NATO weakness encouraging Russian aggression, just as he had seen happen with the Nazis in the 1930s, stating in Authors' Note and Acknowledgements
(p 359):
"Those who argue for the reduction of defence expenditure in the countries of the West .... seem to live in a land of total make-believe ... What they [Russia] have been doing is building up huge armed forces, far greater than what would be necessary, in any conceivable situation, for their own defence, at a cost gravely detrimental to domestic development ... and in a mode essentially offensive. ... We have assumed that enough is done to ensure that, when the Soviet machine travels of its own momentum along a path of miscalculation and
mischance towards an attack on NATO, the West, at some cost, is able to survive. It is possible, of course, that enough will not be done.
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The outcome is then likely to be different. ... the free countries of the West would be in no position to withstand political pressure from the
USSR, which would enjoy the fruits of a military victory, without having to fight for it."
Hackett and associates outline what they consider the most probable nature of WWIH, pointing out (on page 31) that in 1978 only 35 out of 180 governments in the world were truly democratic, and the remainder relied on dictatorial succession or coup d' etat for changes of leadership. They assume (Appendix 5, p355) that the West has a nuclear inferiority by 4 August 1985 when they assume WWIII breaks out, with 2450 ICBMs, IRBMs and SLBMs on the Russian/Warsaw Pact side, compared to just 1900 available to the West. They assume that Russian assistance to Egypt causes subversion and overthrow of Middle East countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait) in 1984, with Saudi's Sunni sect versus Iraq's Shia sect being provoked by insurgency to cause war. Russia also attacks Western assets, ships etc, leading American hawks to propose (p 282): "Why not now go over to the offensive, it was asked, and finish off forever the threat ... East Germany and Poland could be freed and the advance could be pushed forward in the Ukraine as far as the Dnieper. Control of the Ukrainian harvest and of the Dnieper hydro-electric installations would be enough to cripple any further war effort by Soviet Russia. It would be tempting to go on and liberate Georgia and control Baku, but that ... would expose too long a line of Western communications ..."" Instead, the Russian Kremlin followed President Truman's doctrine of 6 August 1945 (p 285): "They insisted on an immediate move towards the threat of nuclear action. A single atomic attack on a Western target would be enough to demonstrate their determination. A simultaneous message would be sent to the US proposing the immediate withdrawl of all foreign forces ... It was important to make it absolutely clear to the Americans that this was a single attack to demonstrate what might happen if they refused Soviet demands. It was not to be seen as an immediate prelude to a general nuclear offensive. ... Most views were fairly near the truth so far as a proposal for negotiation was concerned, but few guessed that this would be accompanied by a Hiroshima-type demonstration, or that the time-table would be as narrow and threatening as it turned out to be ... he demanded that the US should send representatives within one week ...
failing which further selective strikes would be carried out."
After the explosion, NATO retaliates with a similarly small-scale tit-for-tat nuclear strike, being constrained by escalation fears (a factor which contrary to CND propaganda, was the prime factor in all NATO Cold War plans). Hackett comments on the Cold War conflict between oppressor Russia and its victim Ukraine (p 306): "Soviet policy had always been at pains either to suppress or appease any symptoms of independence of mind on the part of Ukraine [Khrushchev gave Ukraine the Crimea in 1954]. Its enormous contribution to Soviet food supplies, its position in the front line of Soviet territory facing the West, bordering on Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and
Romania, and its vast hydro-electric potential, had made it, after Russia proper, the most vital component of the [Soviet] Union."
Hackett argues (p 311) that Marxism only took root among a "group of people accustomed to absolutism", such as those in the Tsar's Russia of 1917 or Ho Chi Minh's Vietnam, and failed elsewhere, unless continuously enforced by a regime of brutality and violence. Put another war, "Marxism" was essentially successful merely because it became a mere public relations symbol or label, used as a handy excuse for excesses by dictators, just as certain religions were likewise used as mere excuses for invasions labelled Crusades or Holy wars in the past. His conclusion (p 327) is that WWIII would end Cold War Russia's role as a Western superpower, leaving China (largely a rival to Russia in the Cold War) to take its place: "After each major war this century, a great empire has melted away. After the 1914-18 war, the defeated Austro-Hungarian empire. After the 1939-45 war, the victorious British empire." The basic problem remains that relatively few countries are completely democratic and free, while many have military power. The cheap-fix of disarmament for this world is beautifully debunked by world history following the nonsense written on pages 101-2 of the 1931 book by Major Victor Lefebure, Scientific Disarmament (published by the communist Victor Gollancz's Mundanus Ltd imprint in London, with glowing Introductions by 14 disarmament "experts" including David Lloyd George and H. G. Wells): "The claim that a peacefully disposed country, highly organised for industry, with vast facilities for manufacture of all kinds, can suddenly spring from a condition of disarmament to one of intense armament appears to be untenable." (Hitler disproved him soon after being elected two years later. This book was given a lengthy
and laudatory review in The Observer on 1 March 1931 by a Major-General Sir F. Maurice!)
Update: 17 April 2022. President Biden is sending further military aid for Ukraine to fight Russia, $800 million including 500 Javelin armour penetrating missiles, two hundred M113 APCs, eleven Mi-17 helicopters, eighteen 155mm howitzers, 40,000 artillery shells, 300 switchblade drones. The problem is that this kind of proxy conventional war can drag on, devastating the country. If you remember the neutron bomb "controversy" from 40 years ago, Reagan's admin argued (1) they'd deter invasions, and (2) if some kind of accidental special military adventure/invasion occurred, then they'd swiftly stop the armour without any collateral blast, fire or fallout damage (1 kiloton enhanced radiation/reduced blast at a few hundred metres doesn't cause any damage apart from a flash of nuclear radiation to stop/deter invasions, UNLIKE conventional weapons which leave the country in ruins and hurt civilians). According to Sandia's
declassified Defense Nuclear Agency Nuclear Weapons Characteristics Handbook, pages 13-15: "With the advent of the Korean
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War in 1950 ... our focus shifted to tactical nuclear weapons. The Mk7 bomb and the Mk9 280mm artillery fired atomic projectile were the first of these weapons. In the early 1950s we started developing nuclear warheads for short-range missiles such as the Honest John and the Corporal ... In 1962, President Kennedy directed that permissive action links (PALs) be incorporated in all NATO deployed weapons to protect against unauthorised use."" Deterrence was lost in the 90s due to lying anti-nuclear propaganda disarmament activists. Without credible nuclear deterrence, we are back to long sieges of cities, where attrition in the face of dwindling food and ammunition determines the outcome, as in the 11 month long siege of Sebastopol in Crimea, from October 1854 to September 1855, or its siege from October 1941 to July 1942 (during June 1942 alone, Germany reportedly dropped 20,528 tons or 20.5 kilotons - more than twice the blast yield of the Hiroshima bomb - on Sebastopol, which of course goes unnoticed by the anti-nuclear
propagandarists who don't care deterring conventional war).
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/president-zelensky-putin-russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons-b994743.html
President Zelensky warns world to prepare for Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine
The Ukraine leader called for more air raid shelters and more anti-radiation medicines
By Sami Quadri, Evening Standard, london
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the world should be ready for the prospect of Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons.
Speaking from the country’s capital Kyiv, Mr Zelensky voiced his fears the Russian president could also be prepared to use chemical
weapons against Ukraine.
The leader called for more air raid shelters and more anti-radiation medicines.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10726663/Increasingly-desperate-Vladimir-Putin-attack-NATO-base-stop-weapons- getting-Ukraine.html
"Increasingly desperate' Vladimir Putin could attack a NATO base to stop the western weapons that are stalling his invasion from
getting to Ukrainian forces, ex-national security chief warns
Putin could strike a NATO base in order to halt the transfer of arms to Ukraine Former Government security adviser Lord Ricketts made the warning yesterday Putin may even attack aircraft or convoys headed to Ukraine from NATO, he said By JESSICA WARREN FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 19:00, 17 April 2022
Vladimir Putin could consider striking a NATO base in order to halt the transfer of arms to Ukraine, a former British security chief has warned. Lord Ricketts, the Government's first national security adviser, said yesterday that Mr Putin is becoming ‘increasingly desperate to choke off the flow of arms' to Ukraine. He may even do this by attacking aircraft or convoys headed to the country from NATO, Lord Ricketts suggested. ... Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky said that it is important for Russia not to win any territory in the Donbas
region. ... 'We shouldn't wait for the moment when Russia decides to use nuclear weapons ... We must prepare for that,' he said.
This is the place and time to once more debunk Dr Hans A. Bethe's nonsense anti-Reagan address in April 1982 to the American Physical Society, "We are not inferior to the Soviets" (published on pages 90-98 of Bethe's book The Road from Los Alamos, Touchstone, 1991). Bethe admits in table 1 of his article that the Russian empire had 2,490 ICBMs, SLBMs and bombers, compared to just 2,030 American delivery systems, and also in his table 2 that the nuclear warheads on these systems amounted to 8,000 equivalent megatons on the Russian side, compared to just 5,600 American. However, he then made the totally false propaganda claim that this vastly superior
Russian nuclear force "is cancelled by the lower accuracy of their missiles"! This is totally misleading "chalk versus cheese" propaganda
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fake news from Bethe, because the American and Russian targetting strategies were different: Russia was targetting soft targets with higher yields that don't require high accuracy, whereas America was trying to target Russian Kremlin leaders bunkers and Russian nuclear weapons in their very hard missile silos, not civilian targets, with lower yield nuclear warheads that produce less collateral civilian damage and injury, but that do require high accuracy unlike the Russian targetting strategy, and in fact America FAILED due to errors in its crater sizes predictions, a fact only discovered at the end of the Cold War! They have been trying to rectify it ever since by "converting" old surface burst tested H-bombs into underground earth-penetrator warheads that can overcome the crater predictions errors by penetrating the ground to tens of metres depth to increase the energy coupling into hardened silos and bunkers, but such converted warheads simply haven't been fully system-proof-tested to work due to the atmospheric test ban treaty! In addition, Bethe quotes Brezhnev propaganda speeches, claims falsely that neutron bombs aren't needed to deter invasions since NATO can somehow use anti-tank missiles against a concentrated tank barriage once it starts (a very dangerous gamble, disproved by numerous surprise attacks in history, and also requiring huge conventional forces mobilized at borders that repeat the 1914 world war disaster), and claims falsely that both sids already have "vast overkill capacity", which is simply not true if in a dangerous crisis one side evacuates target cities and takes to shelters before taking declaring war or taking provocative actions, as Britain did when evacuating
kids from London before declaring war in 1939!.
Bethe's book The Road from Los Alamos also contains other nonsense that make clear that he is double-talking subjective political drivel that ignores the real issues. For example, in his chapter headed "Meaningless Superiority", on page 87 he states: "There can be no victor in a nuclear war." Nuclear weapons were used in WWII and victory was declared in both European and Pacific theatres. Bethe just adds the word "nuclear" to the anti-war drivel of the 1920s and 1930s post-W WI pseudo-pacifists, who would think of gas bombs as a cheap short- cut for disarmament propaganda to close down discussions of victory, in the manner that nuclear weapons are used for this purpose today. But a war ended by a demonstration high altitude EMP effects shot which causes fewer casualties than a conventional bomb is a "nuclear war" that evidently disproves this, and then you get into the problem of what he means by "Victor". You don't necessarily engage in a war to achieve the kind of "victory" Bethe sneers at; you fight to survive as a free society. But from the left-wing political angle, all you need to say is that you believe the weapons will be used in enough quantities, on such targets to make the survivors envy the dead, and bob's your uncle: the debate closes in your favour since nobody wants such an argument. However, did Hitler drop his 12,000 tons of deadly tabun nerve agent (or his smaller sarin nerve agent stockpile) in a knockout blow to win World War II, or did he not? Those weapons were found in 1945 when Germany was invaded, and dumped in the Atlantic. The point is, by distributing gas masks to everybody and shelters to keep the liquid droplets off the skin, the gas bomb threat was discredited. The same applies to simple fallout radiation precautions: anything to keep fallout off the skin stops the beta burns that the Marshallese and Japanese fishermen suffered in March 1954, while simple shelters also shield gamma rays fom fallout, which are of relatively low energy for the Russian designs with U238 casings, where neutron capture produces a lot of low energy gamma rays from Np239 and U237 for the crucial sheltering period of 1-10 days after detonation. Bethe ends his meaningless "Meaningless Superiority" article by declaring on page 89: "Negotiations on arms control must not be linked to 'good behavior' ... We Americans should have learned in Vietnam that we are not the policeman of the world." This is a simply a reversal of the lessons of WWI, it is a retreat to the isolationism of the 1930s, when America followed Britain's stupidity and failed to get involved in actively stopping or credibly deterring Germany and Japan from starting WWIL. If anyone wants to draw lessons from the Vietnam war, he should do so using Ambassador to the Soviet Union Foy D. Kohler's analysis of the megatonnage dropped on Vietnam and its failure to win the war due to simple Vietcong shelters and survivalism which completely repudiates strategic
bombing, linked here.
Regarding nuclear shelters, Bethe attacks them on page 60, where he admits that if nuclear weapons are used on military targets, "then fallout shelters will be very useful", he then irrationally reverses this in the next sentence by saying that since Russian nuclear weapons are targetted on soft targets (countervalue), not hard silos (counerforce), such an attack is "highly unlikely because it is ineffective against an invulnerable missile force." Bethe knows nothing about the true hardness of the Russian shelter system against all kinds of nuclar attacks, counterforce and countervalue. But his argument against shelters, by claiming Russia has superior deterrence in being able to do countervalue attacks, contradicts his own claim in another chapter of his book, where he claims that Russia's superior equivalent megatonage and missiles stockpile is not superior for deterrence, because it has less accurate missiles. Bethe merely redefines the meaning of "superiority" to whatever suits his subjective political agenda. What are we trying to deter? According to Bethe's Russian inferiority argument, we are trying to deter Russia from damaging our nuclear warheads, which is not a problem because the Russian missiles are inaccurate. But that's not what most people are concerned about, which is deterring Russia from attacking civilians. In that sense, Russia has superiority, because accuracy is not a problem for hitting targets the size of cities (as compared to missile silos or Trident submarines). Accuracy is then irrevelant. But it is also largely irrelevant in any case, since submarines hidden at sea are hard to hit so any
"counterforce" strategy against a nuclear trident of mixed forces (planes, submarines hidden at sea, and silos) is half-baked at best, and in
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any case, Russia had not only vast countervalue superiority, but also counterforce superiority, since it turned out that simplistic Glasstone crater size analysis was false and massively exaggerated, so the nuclear weapons targetted on Russian silos wouldn't
have done the job Bethe supposed, even ignoring Russian submarines hidden at sea!.
In yet another deceptive propaganda essay, Bethe's chapter on SDI claims that "to be useful" a Western ABM system or space based defence (Reagan's strategic defence initiative) would have to shoot down "Virtually all of the 10,000 or so" Russian weapons! Again, this is Bethe's highly bigoted view of how Russia will use nuclear weapons in WWIII: he thinks they will disarm themselves by firing everything they have to overwhelm a Western ABM or other defence system. This is the 1914 and 1939 "knockout blow" delusion that Kahn debunks. Since they have a protected second strike force, they don't need to do this. The far more likely threat of a rogue missile or limited demonstration attack in the manner of Hiroshima or Starfish Prime, is ignored by Bethe. It isn't ignored by Russia which does have an ABM around Moscow for this reason! Bethe then on page 124 then claims that a high altitude nuclear detonation releasing | kev soft X-rays to pump a directed "x-ray laser" (in fact you don't need anything so fancy, since a tube or case around the weapon, with one end open, will function to send out a directed pulse of x-rays, as proved in numerous tests, starting with the x-ray fireball coupled into vacuum tubes in the Bravo test of 1954), is useless because warheads can be protected by "A crushable layer installed under the [missile] skin [which] could prolong and weaken the [x-ray ablative "blow off"] pressure wave ... thereby protecting both the skin an its contents." Again, this is deliberately scientifically vague, because no calculations about the range, yield, cost to the missile in terms of size and payload increase trade-off, etc., are given. Sure, you can harden missiles by making use of the large take up of energy in deformation beyond the elastic limit, which is how Lord Baker's clever design for the Morrison table shelter worked in WWII (as with car crumple zones, denting absorbs energy very efficiently, allowing a 3mm steel sheet to stop a collapsing house, something you can't achieve cheaply if you you design a shelter not to be dented, the classic delusion of green engineers set to work on shelter design). But you can use the 14 Mev highly penetrating neutrons from a neutron bomb to melt the fissile material in an incoming enemy warhead, causing it to fizzle,
ending that threat!
(Reagan's controversial SDI nuclear explosion pumped X-ray laser was first suggested in 1977 by Lawrence Livermore's George Chapline Jr. and was tested underground in Nevada in 1978, with the x-ray detector instrument breaking down so no results came. In summer 1979, Chapline held a meeting at Lawrence Livermore lab to design a re-test, where Peter Hagelstein suggested an improvement which led to the successful "Dauphin" sub-20 kt nuclear explosion test of the Excalibur pumped x-ray laser underground Nevada on 14 November 1980. It used laser rods made of doped fogbank like the lowest density x-ray transmitting foams in the W76 warhead, but until it is declassified in full with the test results, it will remain on the sci fi shelves of the library. Hegelstein has one very vague report
online about x-ray laser technology, a data-dump list of possibities and a lot of references, but no illustrations or definite schemes.)
According to the declassified American 30 July 1963 "DCI (Director of Central Intelligence) Briefing to the Joint Chiefs of Staff", the Russian nuclear warhead designs up to 1963 below 150 kt all exceeded 600 Ib in mass, and adds on page 8 that: "There is no information indicating that the USSR has successfully designed and detonated low yield thermonuclear devices with enhanced radiation and reduced fission or devices with the secondary heavily loaded with oralloy such as the US TUBA device [Tuba was the secondary stage used in the 773 lb, 18" diameter, 46.6" long higher yield Polaris W47-Y2 missile warhead, tested to yield 1.2 megatons in the Dominic-Harlem test dropped from a B52 to detonate with a yield-to-weight ratio of 3.42 kt/kg, at an altitude of 13,645 feet, 17 miles south of Christmas Island on 12 June 1962). In the case of reduced fission devices the chance of collection and analysis of test debris is markedly reduced for low yield tests and thus the absence of debris analysis indicating the detonation of such devices in the 1961-62 test series cannot be considered conclusive negative evidence." The document also states that Kingfish and Bluegill Triple Prime high altitue tests at altitudes of about 100 and 50 km in 1962 were both 200 kt warheads, not 410 kt as previous data suggested. The diagrams from this very important declassified Top Secret nuclear designs document, which plot a graph of Russian versus American warhead test results (the ratio of yield to mass of bomb, with identified data points for specific Russian and American tested devices including the cleaner "Ripple IL", a hollow rippled fusion second stage design by John H. Nuckolls of Livermore lab, which when tested as 7,139 Ib Dominic-Housatonic, yielded 10 megatons with alleged 99.9% clean fusion yield on 30 October 1962, superseding the success of previous secondary stages Bassoon, Cello, Fife, Oboe, Calliope and the spherical Tuba) and tabulate a comparison, are of poor quality - hand-drawn not typeset due to the problems of disseminating Top Secret data to printers - but are sufficient to see the key facts (note that this data has NEVER been superseded from the Russian point of view, because this direct data on Russian nuclear weapons from fallout samples ended in 1963 due to the atmospheric nuclear test ban treaty, which moved tests deep underground until they were halted altogether, so since 1963 there has not been fallout analysis
data to determine Russian designs):
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SYSTEM \é RANGE | WARHEAD i opitwiin rist seKOE 1 (r.enh | WT. (Ibs}] 1958 wearlier © | 1961 © 1962 | FUTURE SERIES WER GONTINENTAL BALLISTIC A MISSILES : lard | | 4889 ‘300 | 3009 | . 12090 ATLAS: | 6300 | . ae konos paid TITAN . i 4 TAS eae | 1 ’ 5 noe RAY 7 6190 9.000 ; 9900 . aa0ee. O00 50" ba i & . = | = , 090-4 MINUTEMAN'|5500-7500} 550 300 | = pel? e200 en : - 4 00 1200 1300 _ aa 5 bs | 1500 D 13-8 900 | y0Co e000 | Seas. | ae s00% " ASO - 10.290-13020 - - 4,500. | 9C00 - 205-240) - es 6909, , iS R000 je — : : ~32500 de ae + a ae | 3.990 | §029-§2°00 7 PAIFLARSE, ?517500 | - 40,000-60,00¢ - SUB-LAUNCHED BALLISTIC MISSILES | POLARIS A142 | 1500 | 1500 2.250 1200 . aoe. i “ pouarisrastt 2509 | 7 Fea: Gallon BOBS TEPage oe Fy 256 we 3¢200%0 | Be oe PSB aTS eR “N-& |. 200 | 9500 - 2,700 ; |8000-S200 Lope N-S§ 650 | 300 4500 — * suB- -LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES; REGULUS'T | * 500 | 900 6000 WE A SALUT RATIO ‘ oti-B 300 | 2200 @ [10 3 to 1,809 : 8,050 ame PFS, A HERMIT: - g3 AIR-TO- SURFACE MISSILES . st i vn? fi HOUND DOG" 200-600) 1650 | ~11,te 1100 3100 guns a9 ; ink $00" 2200 10"te 2.500 seco 5500, re y - Co m 20-136 = +: SHRNGZiNY union = O° on aa Bp : INTER ND MED £. aa 4 wep AND MEDIUS ne BALLIS? Le elSSILES, es : sunrer | p (J + RBM 300-2000 300 Be MK54 CELLO ™ 7500. $008..: s000* ‘os ne RIPPLE It «Sb 1050 12200 Septet ra ZIPPO zip i 30 July 1963 Top Secret classified A J76 577 eae cei aca ware S77 i ™ a. weapons designs advantages "DCI E
Tape-recorded White House Meeting on the Dominic Nuclear Test Series, 5 September 1962 (Meeting on the Dominic Nuclear Test Series, 5 September 1962, in Tape 20, Box MTG, President’s Office Files, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library (JFKL), Boston, MA.):
President Kennedy: What about our tests? How would you summarize our tests ... how would they? If they [Russian nuclear
warhead designers] were talking about our tests would they dismiss them quite as you dismiss theirs?
U.S. Atomic Energy Commission Chair Dr Glenn Seaborg (Nobel Laureate for discovering plutonium): I think that they would
not be able to understand the sophistication of some of the biggest advances we have ...
Unidentified participant: our most advanced idea, namely the Ripple concept, leads to an inherently clean system and maximum
efficiency ..
McGeorge Bundy: It may be worth just a moment to explain what that is ... Because that is probably the most important technical
development in our own Dominic series. Carl Kaysen: That’s the sort of breakthrough of the Livermore laboratory.
QUOTATION SOURCE: J. Grams, "Ripple: An Investigation of the World's Most Advanced High-Yield Thermonuclear Weapon Design", Journal of Cold War Studies, v23 (2021), issue 2, pp. 133-161.
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ABOVE: Nuckolls 1994 opennet paper OSTI-10173564 (Lawrence Livermore paper UCRL-JC-117385), "Achieving Competitive Excellence in Nuclear Energy, The Threat of Proliferation, The Challenge of Inertial Confinement Fusion" explained the history of how nuclear warhead design improvements suggested isentropic compression of tritium-deuterium capsules (the maths had already been published in 1972 in J. Nuckolls, L. Wood, A. Thiessen, and G. Zimmerman, "Laser Compression of Matter to Super-High Densities: Thermonuclear (CTR) Applications," Nature, p239):
"In 1957 I was assigned the task of designing a fusion power plant driven by the explosion of a series of hydrogen bombs in a giant steam- filled hole in granite. Although this approach would eliminate the magnetic confinement system, the scale is very large, and the hydrogen bomb is initiated by a fission explosive. ... The feasibility of very small fusion explosions follows from the fact that the thermonuclear burn rate is proportional to the density of the fusion fuel, and the fact that fusion fuels can be imploded to at least 1000 times normal
density. The inertial confinement time is proportional to the characteristic dimension of the exploding system. Therefore, for a sphere, a
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UCRL-JC-117385 PREPRINT
Achieving Competitive Excellence in Nuclear Energy: The Threat of Proliferation; The Challenge of Inertial Confinement Fusion
John H. Nuckolls
This paper was prepared for presentation at the American Nuclear Society Annual Meeting New Orleans, Louisiana June 20, 1994
In the late 1950s and early 1960s an inertial confinement approach to controlled fusion energy was explored at LLNL. In 1957 I was assigned the task of designing a fusion power plant driven by the explosion of a series of hydrogen bombs in a giant steam-filled hole in granite. Although this approach would eliminate the magnetic confinement system, the scale is very large, and the hydrogen bomb is initiated by a fission explosive. To eliminate the use of fission explosives and to greatly reduce the scale, I addressed two key questions:
¢ What is the smallest possible fusion explosion?
¢ How can such a small fusion explosion be ignited without a fission explosion?
The feasibility of very small fusion explosions follows from the fact that the thermonuclear burn rate is proportional to the density of the fusion fuel, and the fact that fusion fuels can be imploded to at least 1000 times normal density. The inertial confinement time is proportional to the characteristic dimension of the exploding system. Therefore, for a sphere, a thousand-fold increase in the density (and burn rate) makes possible a thousand-fold reduction in the radius and a 106-fold reduction in the mass and fusion yield. Minimum-size fusion explosions can be achieved by imploding DT, the fastest~-burning fuel, to very high densities.
A milligram of DT i and ignited will ach
Only 104 J is require is isentropically con thermal energy of t! energy, which is se" energy release from 104 J, so that the co
The minimum ignit If the entire milligri ignition temperatur times larger than th needs to be ignited, larger than the rang If (1/6)9 (=0.5%) of | spot will then initia’ For this pellet, the n compression, the igi
The sum of the min pellet is 15x10 J, al
Because the fusion ¢ required for compre typically 10% efficie ignition. However, milligram) is rough] fold, the overall effi: deliver 106 J to the t more than 10% for «
To meet these coup. proposed in the late invented by Edward the ablative implosi energy from the dri contains a DT pellet rays back and forth and rapid ablation o implosion pressures To prevent excessiv scaling of the surfac decreased the cavity imploding capsule.
thousand-fold increase in the density (and burn rate) makes possible a thousand-fold reduction in the radius ... less than 1% of the pellet
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needs to be ignited, since the radius of the compressed pellet is six times larger than the range of the 3.5-MeV alpha particle arising from the DT reaction. If (1/6)*3 ~ 0.5% of the pellet mass is heated to ignition, this critical-size hot spot will then initiate a burn wave which ignites the remainder of the pellet. For this pellet, the minimum required ignition energy is about 5x10°3 J. After compression, the ignition is also energetically 'free'." ... Because the fusion energy is so much larger than the minimum energy required for compression and ignition, an ablative implosion (which is typically 10%efficient) may be used to achieve both compression and ignition. However, because the velocity required for ignition (of a milligram) is roughly three times the velocity required to compress 1000-fold, the overall efficiency is reduced to 1%. ... The 14-MeV neutrons may be absorbed in several tens of g/cm2 of lithium rich material. Lithium fission and (n,2n) reactions may then be used to regenerate the tritium consumed by the DT burn. The soft x-rays and hot plasma are readily absorbed in the lithium-rich material. ... To meet these coupling requirements with the as yet unknown driver, I proposed in the late 1950s to adapt a
powerful thermonuclear weapon concept invented by Edward Teller in the early 1950s. I proposed to "indirectly drive" the ablative
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implosion with thermal x-rays generated by rapidly injecting energy from the driver beam into a cavity which has high-Z walls and contains a DT pellet coated with a low-Z ablator. Re-radiation of thermal xrays back and forth across the cavity rapidly reduces temperature gradients, and rapid ablation of the pellet surface by the x-rays generates the required implosion pressures while reducing the rate of growth of fluid instabilities. To prevent excessive thermal losses into the cavity wall due to the adverse scaling of the surface to volume ratio as the cavity is made smaller, I decreased the cavity temperature and the average initial density of the imploding capsule. In the early 1980s, the U.S. declassified the use of this "indirect-drive" approach in ICF - and the fact that this approach was used in thermonuclear weapons driven by fission explosions. [Emphasis added] ... A program was conducted by LLNL and LANL to implode ICF capsules in underground nuclear experiments driven by underground nuclear explosions. These experiments have been named 'Halite- Centurion'." (Note that there are good technical reports by Nuckolls with the equations predicting fusion explosion charge efficiency here
and here.)
Grams states that the Ripple designer, Lawrence Radiation Laboratory physicist John H. Nuckolls, received authorization from President Kennedy to test the first version of Ripple on 2 July 1962, initially set for 5 days later, 7 July, in the crowded Operation Dominic series (America was trying to test every wild idea it could possibly construct and ship to the Pacific, before signing a cessation of atmospheric tests, and some shots failed to get off the ground in time, most notoriously the Uracca high altitude test which Dr Ogle was desperate to have fired at an altitude of 1,300 km, leading to furious technical arguments between Kennedy, his adviser McGeorge Bundy, and testing organiser Dr Frank H. Shelton, documented bitterly in the three books about the 1962 tests by Dr Shelton, Dr Ogle, and Dr Seaborg, respectively, namely Shelton's Reflections of a Nuclear Weaponeer, Ogle's A Return to Testing, and Seaborg's Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Test Ban, all giving very different perspectives on the subject - when Dr Shelton finally got Uracca ditched, Dr Ogle was so furious he tried to pull out of making any more Los Alamos EMP measurements in the high altitude Fish Bowl series in retaliation). (Uracca was first designed to be 410 kilotons, then due to NASA's fears a spaceman might get a few rads, Ogle sold out to protests and compromised and accepted 200 kilotons, but the spacemen put their lives ahead of national security so then the yield was lowered still further, until it was practically a waste of time, due to the very high burst altitude and the evident failure to obtain any significant x-ray effects data on MIRVs for such an unrealistically low yield.) Nuckolls vividly described the overloading of the computer resource time for nuclear device design
studies at that hectic testing time, and the desperate use of punched IBM cards for 1-d calculations and only a few 2-d calculations:
"I was the lead nuclear designer and this [Ripple secondary] was my first nuclear test. Not nearly enough time or computer resources were available. Livermore’s nuclear design experts believed success was impossible. [John] Foster and [Peter] Moulthrop were notable exceptions. I severely constrained the nuclear design to minimize calculations, to use parts that could be rapidly fabricated, and to avoid or overpower failure modes. Nuclear design, engineering, and fabrication were completed in two months. (Today, years would be required.) Invaluable assistance was provided by my sole assistant, Ron Theissen, a technician on assignment from the Computation Department. Several other designers volunteered to assist. Day and night, Ron and I punched IBM cards as inputs for hundreds of one dimensional calculations. Although the device was an extreme design, enough computing time was available for only a few simple two dimensional
calculations."
Five days behind the original schedule, the first 9,162 Ib 56.2x123" Ripple on 11 July 1962, a B-52 dropped Ripple as the very last ever air-drop of Operation Dominic at Christmas Island in the Pacific, named shot Pamlico - it yielded 3.85 megatons with a 14,330 ft detonation altitude to avoid local fallout, and was watched by Nuckolls from the beach on Christmas island, where the first British thermonuclear weapons had been tested five years earlier (Seaborg's book Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Test Ban explains how the emerging scandal about the fallout contamination of Marshallese in 1950s tests made it difficult to resume testing in the Marshall Islands in 1962, so American testing moved to Christmas Island for Operation Dominic, 1962): "The giant mushroom cloud surged upward and stabilized at an altitude of 80,000 feet. The Soviet spy ship was steaming over the horizon. ... My colleagues were amazed at my beginner’s luck and counseled me “quit while you are ahead.” But, I resonated with the creative optimism of Lawrence and Teller. I had no fear of failure. Foster’s rule was if you don’t fail half the time, you aren’t trying hard enough. His dynamic spirit inspired Livermore. “You can excel! I want to run so fast anything the Soviets build will be obsolete. ... In August and September [1962], Ron and I worked day and night to design an even more radical nuclear device [Ripple II]. We further optimized the [primary stage x-ray] pulse shape [using fogbank interstage x-ray pulse shaping] to achieve practically isentropic fuel compression ["if the flow is very gradually compressed (area decreases) and then gradually expanded (area increases), the flow conditions return to their original values. We say that such a process is reversible. From a consideration of the second law of thermodynamics, a reversible flow maintains a constant value of entropy. Engineers call this type of flow an isentropic flow; a combination of the Greek word "iso" (same) and entropy" |. On October 1, this device was exploded in the “Androscoggin” nuclear test conducted in the Johnston Island area of the Pacific. A small
percent of the calculated yield was generated. A fizzle! Everyone believed I had “snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.”
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Post—Cold War Nuclear Dangers: Proliferation and Terrorism John H. Nuckolls
Wamings of “loose nukes,” black market plutonium and uranium, and North Korean and Iraqi nuclear weapons development programs have focused attention on post- Cold War nuclear dangers. A National Academy of Sciences (NAS) study warmed that vast quantities of surplus plutonium (Pu) and highly enriched uranium (HEU) resulting from the dismantlement of tens of thousands of weapons from Cold War nu- clear arsenals pose a “clear and present danger to national and international secu- rity” requiring urgent actions in the former Soviet Union (FSU) (1). The World Trade Center bombing was a wake-up call alerting us to the dangers of terrorism on an unprec- edented scale. In spite of favorable devel- opments in South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and North Korea (?), the long- range outlook for nuclear proliferation is troubling: Economic growth and the diffu- sion of advancing science and technology will provide more and more nations with the capability to develop nuclear weapons and post-Cold War turmoil will provide motivations. President Clinton addressed the growing dangers of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in a speech to the United Nations (2). “If we do not stem the proliferation of the world’s deadliest weapons, no democra- cy can feel secure.” Senator Sam Nunn, recently chair of the Senate Armed Ser- vices Committee, stated that addressing the threat of WMD is likely to be “our top continuous national security challenge for the next ten to twenty years ...” (3).
Four Nuclear Nightmares
During the next few decades, there are dan- gers of four nuclear nightmares: (i) Cold War Il, resulting from a revanchist failure of Russian reform and possibly accompanied by internal disorder, unstable leadership,
unreliable command and control, and inad-
equately trained military personnel. (ii) Es-
calation of conventional war to nuclear
war, arising from the geopolitical instabili-
ties that led to World War | and World . (iii) Proliferation epi
192 nations being armed with nuclear
The author is associate director at large, Lawrence Liver- more National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the U.S. government.
weapons), with a disastrous launch-on- warning instability. (iv) Nuclear terrorism, that is, a “World Trade Center” destroyed by a nuclear explosion.
The best hope for avoiding these nuclear nightmares is through the combined forces of politics, defense, science and technology, and economics. The elements of the matrix formed by the four nightmares and the four forces are nonlinearly coupled, including multiple incompletely understood instabili- ties managed by fallible human beings. Di- mensions involving biological and chemical WMD also exist and are coupled to the nuclear nightmare matrix (for example, use of biological weapons would stimulate nu- clear proliferation and could escalate to use of nuclear weapons). The “enemy” is not yet any particular nation, it is the complex system of nation-states that includes cou- pled nonlinear instabilities and WMD. Here, | will focus on nuclear proliferation and terrorism and the role of science and technology.
Loose Nuclear Weapons, Materials, and Expertise
Loose nukes smuggled from the FSU could provide near-term access to nuclear weap- ons by rogue nations, subnational elements, and terrorist organizations. There is top- level U.S. government concern about loose Russian nuclear weapons such as artillery shells and land mines (4). In the present period of internal disorder, it is difficult if not impossible to ensure security; for in- stance, against corrupt insiders working with the Russian Mafia.
Limits on the acquisition of loose nukes, Pu, and HEU are the primary technical bar- riers to achieving a nuclear weapons capa- bility. The NAS Committee on Internation- al Security and Arms Control (CISAC) rec- ommended that Western countries provide necessary equipment and funds for a series of actions in the FSU, including immediate installation of portal monitoring systems to detect any theft of fissile materials; adequate armed guard forces; and improved economic conditions for personnel responsible for ac- counting for and security of weapons and fissile materials, in order to reduce incen- tives for corruption and insider theft (1).
If armed with nuclear weapons, Iraq, Iran, and other nations could serve as sup- pliers of nuclear weapons and materials.
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Before the recent agreemen ed States, North Korea's pc supplier of nuclear weapon by Secretary of Defense W nuclear North Korea could to export nuclear technolog tO terrorists Or rogue regil world, unleashing a night nuclear threat” (5).
Iran was identified by Intelligence Agency direct sey as “the world’s leading terrorism.” Woolsey stated | looking to purchase fully fa weapons ...” (6).
yuntries that provi
mand for nuclear and other corresponding motivations \ by Senator Nunn: “First of a terrorism as a tool of natior tries like Libya and Iran; sex harbor expansionist ambi third, those who both fear ; threaten an invasion of
North Korea; fourth, those v the teeth because they fear in the region, like India an
Senator Nunn also note state of Russian weapons pe: the first time in history thz sands of scientists who kno nuclear weapons .. . ballisi
. chemical and biologic don’t know where their n coming from and how th going to be fed” (3).
Nuclear weapons exper amplify nuclear dangers by a to bypass weapons security sy ing proliferant weapons grams, providing confidence weapon would work, reduci of Pu or HEU required, and | reactor-grade Pu to make 1 (for example, Pu from coi reactors in Iran or North K
The diffusion of advanc technology and compoun growth are providing mor
ar weapons. The scientific | clear weapons are widely kt puting power of the 1950s used to design early U.S. nu far exceeded by that of m used electromagnetic and
nologies for isotopic enricl um, and North Korea used
gross times are roughly 30 years oping nations. In the 100- the 1940s (when the Unit oped nuclear weapons) to t ar weapons will have becon affordable in relative terms
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‘E * VOL. 267 * 24 FEBRUARY 1995
1112
CHAPTER 11
FIGURE 11-22. STARFISH PERSONNEL: (LTO R) HERMAN HOERLIN, JOHN KOL
ABOVE: Dr Frank H. Shelton, Dr Bill Ogle, Dr Herman Hoerlin and others at Johnston Island, celebrating the successful firing of the EMP and ABM effects shot 1.4 megaton Starfish Prime at 400 km altitude, with drinks in paper cups half an hour after the midnight detonation, 9 July 1962.
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Figure 2 Riemanr COMPUTER SIMULATION OF ISENTROPIC Computer graph shock: way COMPRESSION USING WEAK SHOCK WAVES : This computer-produced graph shows a succession which wel of two weak shock waves used in the isentropic characteris compression of a spherical fuel pellet. The computer wave doe: has plotted the density of the fusion fuel, which is energy is ¢ indicated by the closeness of the contours, the lines Cross section of . perpendicular to the radial lines. The closer the lines spherical pellet WS: Only pe are together, the higher the density. The two areas strong shc of closely spaced contours are shock waves propa- on. The st gating toward the center of the pellet. The simula- new condi tion was done for a conical section of the spherical matter mo
pellet only, since the same compression occurs for all such conical sections. The accompanying cross section of the pellet consists of a hollow fuel core and a spherical outer shell that is irradiated by the laser. The acceleration of this outer layer creates the shock wave and the resulting ‘compression. The separate shock waves are produced by increases in the intensity of the laser pulse. The strength and | timing of the shock waves is such that they converge at the center of the fuel pellet creating the density and temperature conditions necessary for a fusion reaction.
aoe ie i
Conical slice used for computer simulation
/} Lasers heat outside surface
| __ Solid shell of deuterium-tritium fuel(From
LiD.)
“_—— | ow density hot corona
The basic principles successfully tested as the 99.9% clean (fusion) 10 megaton Ripple II fusion stage (ignited by a 10 kiloton fission primary stage), were revealed in the article by Dr. Steven Bardwell and Uwe Parpart, “Breaking the Impasse in Inertial Confinement Fusion", in the October-November 1981 issue of FUS/ON, pp. 22-32.
ABOVE: John H. Nuckolls, inventor of the 99.9 percent clean 10 megaton Ripple II H-bomb, based on eliminating the compression of a
heavy pusher, and instead using ablative recoil to isentropically compress the fuel itself to higher density than is possible when a heavy
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pusher is absorbing energy and being compressed itself. The Androscoggin test consisted of a Kinglet primary and Ripple II secondary, 6,647 Ib, 128.5x56.2", with a 15—16 megatons predicted yield, but an actual yield of only 63 kilotons. Kennedy received a request on 12 October to retest Ripple II, while Ripple HI was tested as Calamity on 27 October 1962, yielding only 800 kt instead of the predicted 3 megatons. Kennedy authorised the retesting of Nuckoll's Ripple If, which was done with modifications as the Housatonic shot on 30 October 1962, yielding 10 megatons from 7,139 Ib, 147.9x56.2", without the use of a lead pusher, with a fusion yield of 99.9%, ie. 99.9% clean (a vast improvement on the 98% fusion 1961 Russian 50 megatons test), according to the “Report by Commander Joint Task Force Eight,” 4 June 1964, pp. L-B-5-1—2, as cited by Grams. Grams makes it clear from declassified reports quoting Seaborg clearly stating that the 98% clean 50 megaton Russian test in 1961 and other clean Russian shots used a lead pusher, which was an entirely
different process to the clean mechanism of Ripple II.
Dr Nuckolls explains that the origin of the successful clean 10 megaton Ripple II nuclear weapon design was actually the effort to develop peaceful fusion energy (which failed with lasers but worked with a very low yield fission primary stage providing x-rays!) in his paper "Contributions to the Genesis and Progress of ICF", pages 1-48 of the 2007 book, Inertial Confinement Nuclear Fusion: A historical Approch by its Pioneers (Edited by Guillermo Velarde and Natividad Santamarfa). Basically, the fusion burn rate is directly proportional to the fuel density, which in turn is of course inversely proportional to the cube of its radius. But the inertial confinement time for fusion to occur is proportional to the radius, so the fusion stage efficiency in a nuclear weapon is the product of the burn rate (1.e., 1/radius‘3) and time (i.e., radius), so efficiency ~ radius/(radius*3) ~ 1/radius*2. Therefore, for a given fuel temperature, the total fusion burn, or the efficiency of the fusion stage, is inversely proportional to the square of the compressed radius of the fuel at the time! The radiation loss (cooling by inverse Compton effect) problems that Teller's classic superbombs suffered from can be virtually eliminated by lowering the x-ray energy (temperature) to below 1 KeV, because the radiation losses to the nuclear bomb case are of course proportional
to the fourth-power of the radiating temperature:
"I was introduced to Teller's radiation implosion scheme in the summer of 1955 ... As a 24-year-old assistant to Harold Brown, the 26- year-old TN Design Division Leader, I studied nuclear explosives and weapons design code development and use. In 1957, Brown asked me to help evaluate the feasibility of producing commercial electric power by periodically exploding half-megaton yield H-bombs in a one-thousand foot diameter, steam-filled cavity excavated in a mountain. This large-scale ICF scheme was part of Teller's Plowshare program to develop peaceful uses of nuclear explosives. I realized that a few hundred electron volt radiation temperature might suffice to implode and initiate a very small-scale fusion secondary. Radiation losses into a hohlraum wall decrease with more than the fourth power of the radiation temperature. With low radiation temperatures, excessive wall losses can be avoided ... Implosion symmetry is enhanced because the radiant energy absorbed in a thin layer of the high Z walls of the hohlraum is efficiently re-radiated multiple times and has a velocity a thousand times larger than the implosion velocity of a fusion capsule. Energy radiates from hot areas to cooler areas, rapidly equalizing temperatures. Growth rates of fluid instabilities are reduced because kilovolt range thermal radiation from a few hundred eV temperature black body rapidly ablates the unstable interface in low atomic weight materials. ... Distortions and instabilities generated by energy concentration processes located in the driver are effectively decoupled from the spatially separate secondary implosion when the secondary is energized by black body radiation from the driver-heated hohlraum walls. Consequently, radiation coupled drivers and fusion capsules may both be operated near their stability limits to achieve maximum performance. Driving pressures of several hundred megabars and implosion velocities of hundreds of kilometers/second can be generated by ablation with several hundred eV radiation temperatures. At these temperatures, material sound speeds are several hundred kilometers/second, comparable to the implosion velocities required to isentropically compress DT to more than one thousand times liquid density. ... In 1961, my group leader, Peter Moulthrop; nuclear designer Ray Birkett; and I addressed the pusher fluid instability problem by separating the pusher from the ablator ... the fusion energy generated can be 104 times larger than the Fermi energy of the compressed DT! The gain can be further increased by igniting a relatively small fraction of the DT mass in a hot spot near the center of spherical convergence. Fusion yields can then be amplified by TN
propagation from the hot spot into a much larger mass of DT. ...
"I developed an ablatively driven spherical rocket implosion to compress DT to high densities without use of a pusher. A sustained ablatively driven implosion is made possible by use of a sustained driver input and a suitable ablator. Optimum pulse shapes make possible very high isentropic compression of most of the DT while igniting a central hot spot. The temperature of the hot spot is amplified by adjusting the pulse shape so that a strong shock is generated near zero radius, and by using a hollow target design containing low- density DT gas. ... With near ideal pulse shapes, very high-gain, pusherless, near isentropic, low temperature radiation imploded fusion capsules that ignite propagating bum are feasible. ... Livermore's professional weapons designers regarded my tiny low-cost, high gain ICF target designs as science fiction. We joked about "Nuckolls' Nickel Novels" (referring to my prolific series of classified memos).
Without nuclear tests, these radical target designs could not be taken seriously. Fortunately, my efforts were strongly supported by Carl
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Haussmann, who succeeded Brown as TN Division Leader, and by Foster, who succeeded Brown as Livermore director in early 1960. (Brown was selected by President Kennedy to lead Department of Defense (DOD) Research and Engineering.) ... Livermore was focusing all possible efforts on responding to high yield Soviet atmospheric nuclear tests (including a 57-megaton explosion). ... In April 1962, the U. S. responded to the Soviet tests by launching an intensive nuclear test series. Livermore's advanced warheads achieved a major success in an "Admiral's test" of the Polaris submarine launched ballistic missile. This Polaris weapons system addressed the first strike instability,
by creating a secure second strike nuclear force. ...
"In April 1962, a few months before the scheduled end of the atmospheric test series, I proposed a nuclear test of a radical high-yield TN design so fantastic that my colleagues thought it was an April Fool's-day joke. In this radical design, a high-performance TN secondary was imploded with a highly optimized pulse. Foster dispatched me to Washington to support approval of a nuclear test of my scheme. I was accompanied by Roland Herbst, a theoretical physicist and experienced weapons designer. I briefed AEC Chairman Glenn Seaborg, and my former boss, DOD's R and D leader Harold Brown. President Kennedy approved the nuclear test the last experiment in the test
series."
Dr Nuckolls' scientific and political viewpoint was disastrous when he eagerly used his position as Director of LLNL (at the end of the Cold War, when the research budget was drying up!) to try to start a speculative pie-in-the-sky peaceful nuclear fusion energy program (leading to a major argument with U.S. Secretary of Energy Watkins in May 1992 when Watkins visited LLNL and demanded nuclear deterrence against proliferation and nuclear terrorism, not peaceful fusion energy!), but Nuckolls' views on deterrence were always sound
and he warned clearly against nuclear disarmament scams for "peace":
"The author [John H. Nuckolls] concludes by warning that nuclear disarmament may eliminate the highly successful deterrent mechanism for avoiding another major world war. In a world made safe for major conventional wars by the apparent "elimination" of nuclear weapons, the leaders in a conventional World War III - involving unimaginable suffering, hatred, terror, and death - would be strongly motivated to introduce nuclear weapons in the crucial decisive battles. Even if diplomacy could "eliminate" nuclear weapons, man's knowledge of nuclear weapons can never be eliminated. The paradox is the attempt to eliminate nuclear weapons may maximize the probability of their use." - John H. Nuckolls, "Strategic defense initiative: critical issues", UCRL-92803, Conference: 4. international conference on nuclear war, Erice, Sicily, Italy, 19 Aug 1984,
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5529030-strategic-defense-initiative-critical-issues
Nuckolls and Lowell Wood (another LLNL physicist, best known for his secretive work on EMP effects from nuclear explosions and for chairing a controversial EMP commission, which produces reports with the vital technical data we need removed due to secrecy concerns) also wrote an interesting article called "The Development of Nuclear Explosives" (published in the 1988 book Energy in Physics, War and Peace, edited by Wood) stating on page 312: "The development of high-yield weapons was motivated strongly by rising concern in the U.S. Government regarding the potentially unstopable character of Soviet land forces, as the nature of the war machine that had broken Nazi power in the 1943-45 period became clearer in post-war analyses. The basic Soviet doctrine of massing forces and breaking through the enemy front, even at very high costs in men and material, came to be seen as very difficult to counter. However, since it involved concentrating a division into a few square kilometers for its effectiveness, 0.1-1 megaton nuclear explosives used as area (blast + thermal) weapons came to be seen as an effective and affordable response by the defense: a single high-yield weapon costing under a million
dollars could neutralize an armored division costing several orders of magnitude more."
Ripple warhead designer Nuckolls with Lowell Wood and others had in 1972 published a paper about the new physics involved, in Nature vol. 239, pp. 139-142, see the illustration below. In simple terms, what Nuckolls does to the Teller-Ulam thermonuclear secondary stage is analogous to what happened in the evolution of primary fission stages: get rid of the thick, dense tamper/pusher surrounding the fuel, to allow the available implosion energy pulse to compress the fuel, and to do at the correct rate to get "isentropic compression", i.e. keeping the shock energy in mechanical work (without the conversion of implosion shock energy into heat energy, which reduces the component of the energy being used for compression). The rate of delivery of X-rays can be controlled by low density plastic foams used as baffles and for delayed re-radiation of soft x-rays. To design the shape in detail, an iterative scheme is used, where a range of basic guesswork possibilities are all simulated in detail on a computer, and the best results are then picked out and used as the basic templates for another range of designs, but honing-in on the most promising shapes, thicknesses, etc. This process is repeated many times to optimise a final
design, before a nuclear test is done to check that it actually works as intended.
The controlled higher compression factor you get without having to also compress an inert, thick dense pusher (you just use a relatively
thin, say 1-cm thick beryllium ablator surface shell) allows efficient, isentropic compression, of a hollow lithium deuteride sphere with D
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+T gas in the centre to act as an initiator, providing neutrons to kickstart the fission of lithium in the lithium deuteride fuel, replacing the Teller-Ulam fissile sparkplug; something only possible due to the much greater compression in Nuckolls design than in the older Teller-
Ulam system.
If you think this is questionable and don't want to believe in a 99.9% clean H-bomb, note that Nature published this paper suggesting that a laser system could be used, in place of the x-ray pulse from a 10 kiloton fission primary stage that Nuckolls used in all of his 1962 tests, and which is way more powerful than laser pulses! There is also an article, "Energy Balance in Fusion Hohlraums", in the unclassified Los Alamos Nuclear Weapons Journal, issue 2, 2009, pages 6-11, which contains two diagrams side-by-side, comparing the use of laser beams and x-rays, such as from nuclear fission primary stages, for focussed x-ray compression of fusion capsules, including a detailed description of the fogbank x-ray mirror lining needed to focus soft, 0.2 keV, x-rays isotropically on to the fuel capsule, and including x-ray shadowgraphs of implosions showing the shockwaves with and without fogbanks/x-ray mirrors which are composed of "20-mg/cm‘3 silica aerogel" - the same issue has a helpful article about the use of fogbank interstage material in 'W76 warheads:
"... Fogbank is an essential material in the W76 warhead. During the mid-1990s, Fogbank production ceased ... As time passed, the precise techniques used to manufacture Fogbank were forgotten. ... Los Alamos computer simulations at that time were not sophisticated enough to determine conclusively that an alternate material would function as effectively as Fogbank. ... Despite efforts to ensure the new facility was equivalent to the original one, the resultant equipment and processing methods failed to produce equivalent Fogbank. ... in some cases the current impurity levels were much lower than historical values. Typically, lower impurity levels lead to better product quality. For Fogbank, however, the presence of a specific impurity is essential. ... . Scientists found that modern cleaning processes, used in the manufacture of the feed material, clean it better than the historical processes; the improved cleaning removes an essential chemical. ... The historical Fogbank production process was unknowingly based on this essential chemical being present in the feed material. As a result, only a maximum concentration was established for the chemical and the resulting impurity. Now the chemical is added separately, and the impurity concentration and Fogbank morphology are managed. ... Just as modern scientists unraveled the secrets behind the production of the Japanese katana [samurai sword], materials scientists managed to remanufacture Fogbank so that modern methods can be used to control its
required characteristics. As a result, Fogbank will continue to play its critical role in the refurbished W76 warhead."
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“Implosion of hollow (rather than solid) pellets makes possible order of magnitude reductions in thi primary stage yield and size, for thermonuclear weapons]." - John H. Nuckolls, et al., Laser-driven | conference on plasma physics and controlled nuclear fusion research, Tokyo, 11 Nov 1974; OSTI/PlL
X-RAY PULSE 4 CM THICK BERYLLIUM ABLATOR (NO PUSHER) ON OUTER SUR FOR CLEAN WEAPON (E.G., RIPPLE Il) THE VOID CONTAINS D + T
START OF IMPLOSION
FIG.2
SOLID THE X-RAY PULSE SIMPLY DELIVERS ENERGY (NOT SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE) TO /
THE LITHIUM DEUTERIDE FUSION FUEL. THIS ENERGY CAUSES THE OUTER 1 CM TO ABLATE, PRODUCING BLOWOFF. THE RECOIL FROM THIS EXPLOSIVE BLOWOF HIGH PRESSURE PLASMA NEWTON'S 3RD LAW OF MOTION (REACTION BEING EQUAL AND OPPOSITE TO AC’
THE BLOWOFF LAYER IS THE EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE PLASMA. D + T GAS IS PRODUCE NEUTRONS TO START THE FISSION OF LITHIUM IN THE SOLID FUEL LA' NUCLEAR DEVICE LIKE RIPPLE Il. IN THE OLDER TELLER-ULAM SYSTEM, THERE I: IN THE CENTRE TO PROVIDE NEUTRONS TO KICKSTART THE FISSION OF LITHIUN FOR FUSION TO BEGIN), AND A DENSE U238 (OR LEAD OR TUNGSTEN) INERT PUS FUEL. THIS IS A MUCH SLOWER PROCESS WITH LESS COMPRESSION, SINCE IMPL TAKES MORE TIME AND MORE ENERGY FROM THE LIMITED X-RAY ENERGY SUPPL
REPLACING THE DENSE U238 PUSHER/TAMPER WITH A LIGHTER SHELL OF BERYL STAGE TO INCREASE COMPRESSION EFFICIENCY IS ANALOGOUS TO THE DEVELO
NATURE VOL. 239 SEPTEMBER 15 1972 139
Laser Compression of Matter to Super-High Densities: Thermonuclear (CTR) Applications
JOHN NUCKOLLS, LOWELL WOOD, ALBERT THIESSEN & GEORGE ZIMMERMAN
University of California Lawrence Livermore Laboratory
Pulse Shape
The Fermi-degenerate state—which minimizes the required implosion pressure—may be achieved by shaping the laser pulse in time. When implosion begins, laser power is set so that the initial shock speed in the imploding matter is comparable to sound speed (pressures of 10°-10° atmospheres) and subse- quently so that the compression is near-isentropic; the hydro-
adjusting the pulse shape so that the characteristics intersect just before the centre is reached, a small fraction of the pellet mass in the central region is compressed and strongly heated, producing thermonuclear ignition. The laser power history which generates an optimal, isentropic compression of a degenerate hydrogen sphere is approximately *
E= Eo TS
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where t= 1 —¢/t’, ris time, ’ (which is > f) is the transit time to the centre of the sphere of the initial shock (generated by appli- 3y
cation of Ey), s= — , = 15/8 for dense hydrogen with degenerate 7+
electrons (y= 5/3). Such a pulse shape may be generated with
* Computer calculations of spherical implosions show that this power history generates a near optimal pressure history, and that this pressure history is (for a Lagrangian surface):
h \28 s R = ,hA= dr P Po (*) H p
It may be shown analytically (via the hydrodynamic characteristics) that this pressure history also generates an optimal compression of a plane slab (where h=/Ao=const.). As expected P~ E23, since E~ Px velocity, velocity ~P!!?.
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nuclear
WEAPONS
Issue2°2009..2~*~*” e 2009
Energy Balance in Fusion Hohlraums
A second approach uses intense beams of PP Laserbeams X-ray photons, electrons, or ions to heat and compress the ws rae i: Gin Fal? : : fi : Radiation ee uel very rapidly; the fuels mass, or inertia, confines it entrance hole
long enough for significant fusion reactions to occur. This second approach is called inertial-confinement fusion (ICF).
- <— Hohlraum—> ;
beams will pass through a small hole at each end of a hohlraum (German for “cavity” )—in this case, a hollow gold cylinder about the size of a pencil eraser (see figure on page 7). The laser beams will strike the inner surfaces of the hohlraum’s walls and heat them to very high temperatures. In this indirectly driven ICF technique, the hot inner surfaces of the hohlraum will then emit x-rays that will compress (implode) a target capsule—a hollow, BB-sized sphere of beryllium or plastic suspended at the hohlraum’s center. The capsule will contain fusion fuel—in this case, a 50/50 mixture of deuterium
and tritium
Diagnostic
holes A _
Target capsule
ed
2 X-ray bi
“Thejinner surfaces of the hot walls will then emit x- impinge on the spherical target capsule at the cente hohiraum. The capsule’sjouter surface will absorb th and explode, producing a reaction force that implode capsule and compresses and heats the fuel inside ... hohiraum’s walls could be heated instead by an exte of x-rays (right, solid red cones)." (Principle used in I
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K-shell transmission of soft (0-1.58 KeV) x-rays by 500,000 K, 0.014 g/mI Al plasma at 500,0C
1.0
0.8
0.6
Transmission
0.4
0.2 —— Experiment — Calculation
a 1,500 1,520 1,540 1,560 1,580
Photon energy (eV)
Figure 6 Opacity measurement and calculations. Laboratory measurements of plasma opacity made using high-power lasers such as HELEN. The subject material is heated indirectly using radiator or hohlraum, and allowed to expand against a plastic tamper. In this way, uniform pl: can be created. A laser-irradiated fibre behind the target acts as a point source of X-rays, whicl
ABOVE: the transmission of soft x-rays inside nuclear weapon through the absorbing K-shell electron barrier of aluminium plasma generated by the ablation of an aluminium fusion capsule pusher (aluminium in this example is a plasma at a density of 14 grams/litre and at a temperature of 500,000 K), Figure 6 in the officially (Atomic Weapons Establishment, Aldermaston) approved UK Goverment paper, "Science of nuclear warheads" by Keith O’Nions, Robin Pitman and Clive Marsh, Nature, v415, 21 Feb 2002, pp. 853-857: "Little has been published about nuclear warhead science. Here we set out elements of the programme that will underpin future assessments of the safety and performance of Britain’s warheads in compliance with treaty obligations. ... The approach builds upon previous nuclear test experience and seeks to replace the requirements for further empirical test data by developing a deeper theoretical and experimental understanding of the relevant fundamental science. This must then be drawn together and applied to the nuclear warhead system using intensive numerical modelling. ... Lasers and pulsed power machines are able to achieve relevant densities and temperatures and also produce the only source of data on X-radiation flows. ... In the very hot matter of a nuclear warhead, thermal radiation is particularly important. The crucial parameter is the radiative opacity, which quantifies how thermal radiation interacts with matter by absorption, emission and scattering. It is sensitive to the composition, temperature and density of the material and expresses the degree to which a material impedes radiation flow. ... [Figure 6] The subject material is heated indirectly using a foil radiator or hohlraum, and allowed to expand against a plastic tamper. ... Figure 6 describes the techniques used and shows a comparison of an aluminium opacity experiment with the corresponding calculations. ... As well as opacity and radiation flow, laser experiments can be designed to test theoretical models of complex radiation/hydrodynamic phenomena (Fig. 7). ... [Figure 7] Here a laser is used to heat a ... hohlraum, which in turn heats a piece of aluminium (shown in blue). The resulting jet of aluminium penetrates a piece of polystyrene, which is radiographed by an X-ray backlighter also driven by the laser. The results from two numerical codes are shown together with the X-ray record from the experiment. Both codes reproduce the main features of the flow but show different development of the jet tip. Analysis of the detail will indicate where the
theory and algorithms must be improved."
Our point in emphasising the 99.9% clean (fusion) 10 megaton Ripple II bomb, air dropped successfully in 1962, is to demonstrate that the technology and science does exist to make even large nuclear weapons a credible deterrent without any fallout collateral damage. Although the neutron effects from 10 megaton bombs in sea level air are usually severely curtailed by neutron scattering in nitrogen, this
can be prevented by using two such devices burst 5-20 seconds apart in time, so that the neutron burst from the second device undergoes
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hydrodynamic enhancement in the large hemisphere of low-density air behind the shock front created by the first burst, tailored to cover the desired area (the precise time between the two detonations is the control determining the radius of efficient hydrodynamic enhancement of the neutrons from the second detonation). So there are excellent prospects for making the neutron bomb credible as a deterrent against invasions, air burst near borders at an altitude that prevents fallout and blast/thermal collateral damage but deters military
field equipment and personnel from invasions.
UPDATE (30 April 2022): https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10766541/Ben-Wallace-predicts-Russia-use-parade-9-
announce-mass-mobilisation-population.html:
"Putin 'could declare war on the world's Nazis' on Victory Day (9 May 2022): UK predicts Russia will use parade on 9 May to announce mass mobilisation of reserves for final push in Ukraine to defeat West's support for Kyiv ... Britain's Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has predicted that Putin may instead use the parade to declare war on the world's 'Nazis' and mobilise his reserves ...
Earlier this week, Putin vowed to use nuclear weapons against any country that dares to 'interfere' with Russia's war in Ukraine."
A couple of points about this prediction: (1) Russia has at least 2 million reserves, which would boost the total Russian armed forces to 3 million (the 1 million normal Russian military includes a 1 year conscription of personnel aged 18-27); (2) this would be a major step up what Herman Kahn called the "escalation ladder". To give some kind of context to the threat a Russian military of 3,000,000 presents us with, please remember that as we stated earlier in this post (above): "When on 8 December 1991, the presidents of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine dissolved the USSR, the Soviet military was 3.7 million strong. "From 1945 to 1948, the Soviet Armed Forces were reduced from about 11.3 million to about 2.8 million men", while the Soviet Union actually increased in size, as puppet governments were
installed across half of Europe, despite the American nuclear weapons monopoly until 1949."
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“Aleksey Zhuravlyov, chairman of the nationalist Rodina party, angrily declared that the UK was ‘accusing us (Russia) of state terrorism’ on Channel One's 60 Minutes show. Producers on the show put up a map appearing to show how long it would take for Russian missiles to hit the UK, France and Germany if launched from Kaliningrad (202 seconds for London, 200 for Paris, and 106 seconds for Berlin).” - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10769957/Russian-propaganda-declares- nuclear-missile-strike-London-no-survivors.html
ABOVE: Russian state TV Channel One's 60 Minutes show reportedly broadcast the missile trajectories Russia could use and the delivery times to hit London, Paris and Berlin (202, 200 and 106 seconds, for nuclear missiles fired from Kaliningrad). This is because Russia has been left with the world's largest nuclear stockpile of countervalue (city destroying) low-accuracy missiles but high- yield warheads. Such weapons can also be used for high altitude large area EMP strikes, where missile accuracy is again largely irrelevant as it is for large city targets. Until the crater exaggerations farce was exposed firmly around 1988, we had - on paper but not in reality - strategic and tactical counterforce superiority due to the fact that our missiles were so much more accurate than Russian ones, we could hit
their missile in their silos (provided we attacked first, before the Russian missiles were launched), and we also had tactical nuclear
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weapons to deter invasions, which was a credible deterrent to Russian aggression. After 1988, however, the Glasstone and Dolan cratering scam was exposed for what it was, debunking our strategic counterforce deterrent (which was never much good against enemy subs hidden at sea anyway), and then the anti-nuclear "peacemakers" persuaded politicians to disarm our tactical counterforce nuclear weapons, leaving us without a credible deterrent to stop invasions. In the 1962 Cuban missiles crisis, Kennedy had clear nuclear superiority and was able to use that in his TV speech on 22 October 1962 to persuade Khrushchev to back down (he said that a single nuclear missile launched from Cuba, even by accident, against a Western target, would be met by a "full" retalitory nuclear response), but today Kennedy's gunboat diplomacy option has a much higher risk because we have surrendered in the nuclear arms race and Russia is way ahead. And it's nut just Mr Putin. China and North Korea have tested thermonuclear weapons and North Korea's Leader Kim Jong Un recently stated in Pyongyang that it would use nuclear deterrence against "escalating nuclear threats from hostile forces". In other words, the dictatorships are now using nuclear deterrence against us to prevent our interventions for peace, just as Hitler did when he built the Luftwaffe: "Margarita Simonyan, editor of state broadcaster RT and one of the Kremlin's highest-profile mouthpieces, declared on TV last night that the idea of Putin pressing the red button is 'more probable' than the idea that he will allow Russia to lose the war. 'Either we lose in Ukraine,' she said, 'or the Third World War starts. I think World War Three is more realistic, knowing us, knowing our leader'." -
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10762143/Ukraine-war-Russian-state-T V-says-nuclear-strike-probable-losing.html
"Alexander's career was piracy pure and simple, nothing but an orgy of power and plunder, made romantic by the character of the hero. There was no rational purpose in it, and the moment he died his generals and governors attacked one another. The cruelty of those times is incredible. When Rome finally conquered Greece, Paulus Aemilius was told by the Roman Senate to reward his soldiers for their toil by "giving" them the old kingdom of Epirus. They sacked 70 cities and carried off 150,000 inhabitants as slaves. How many they killed I know not; but in Etolia they killed all the senators, 550 in number. Brutus was "the noblest Roman of them all," but to reanimate his soldiers on the eve of Philippi he similarly promises to give them the cities of Sparta and Thessalonica to ravage, if they win the fight. ... the intensely sharp preparation for war by the nations is the real war, permanent, unceasing ... the battles are only a sort of public verification of the mastery gained during the "peace"-interval. ... Nations, General Lea says, are never stationary - they must necessarily expand or shrink, according to their vitality or decrepitude. Japan now is culminating; and by the fatal law in question it is impossible that her statesmen should not long since have entered, with extraordinary foresight, upon a vast policy of conquest - the game in which the first moves were her wars with China and Russia and her treaty with England, and of which the final objective is the capture of the Philippines, the Hawaiian Islands, Alaska, and whole of our Coast west of the Sierra passes. This will give Japan what her ineluctable vocation as a state absolutely forces her to claim, the possession of the entire Pacific Ocean; and to oppose these deep designs we Americans have, according to our author, nothing but our conceit, our ignorance, our commercialism, our corruption, and our feminism. General Lea makes a minute technical comparison of the military strength which we at present could oppose to the strength of Japan, and concludes that the Islands, Alaska, Oregon and Southern California, would fall almost without resistance, that San Francisco must surrender in a fortnight to a Japanese investment, that in three or four months the war would be over and our republic, unable to regain what it had heedlessly neglected to protect sufficiently, would then "disintegrate," until perhaps some Ceasar should arise
to weld us again into a nation." - William James, The Moral Equivalent of War, speech delivered at Stanford University in 1906.
UPDATE: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10774235/Ukraine-war-Russian-state-media-threatens-U K-underwater- nuke.html: "Russia's chief propagandist threatens to 'plunge Britain into the depths of the sea’ with underwater Poseidon nuke that would trigger a 1,600ft radioactive tidal wave and wipe the UK off the map. Dmitry Kiselyov, known as 'Putin's mouthpiece’, threatened the UK with Poseidon underwater nuclear bomb. By CHRIS PLEASANCE and WILL STEWART FOR MAILONLINE. PUBLISHED: 08:36, 2 May 2022 | UPDATED: 13:21, 2 May 2022. Dmitry Kiselyov, a man often known as 'Putin's mouthpiece’, used his Sunday night show to call for attacks on Britain with a Poseidon underwater drone that he said would trigger a 1,600ft radioactive tidal wave and 'plunge Britain to the depths of the ocean.' The drone ‘has capacity for a warhead of up to 100 megatons', Kiselyov claimed - several thousand times the strength of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima - which would 'raise a giant wave, a tsunami, up to 1,640ft high' - enough to reach halfway up Scafell Pike, the tallest point in England. Speaking against a background graphic showing the UK being erased from the world map, Kiselyov added: 'This tidal wave is also a carrier of extremely high doses of radiation. Surging over Britain, it will turn whatever is left of
them into radioactive desert, unusable for anything. How do you like this prospect?"
This exaggeration of nuclear effects is debunked by the table of nuclear test water waves data declassified in Dolan's Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons, DNA-EM-1, Table 2-9, Measured Water Wave Data from Nuclear Tests (linked here): the biggest water waves are generated by the deepest scaled depth of burst, e.g. the 32 kiloton Wigwam test in the Pacific detonated at 2,000 feet depth in 15,000 ft of water, which gave a peak water wave height of 118 feet at 2,000 feet range (the wave height scales up in proportion to
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the square-root of bomb energy yield, and decreases inversely with increasing distance from surface zero). This height will increase by a factor of 56 when you increase yield from 32 kilotons to 100 megatons, so the wave height is 6,600 feet at 2,000 feet from surface zero. The problem now is that (1) Scafell Pike is 15 miles or 80 kft from the Irish Sea (the Ravenglass Estuary, appropriately the most alpha particle and 59 keV low energy gamma active place in Britain, due to Am-241 in the mud from Sellafield, amounting to nanocuries per gram of dried mud), a range which would reduce the wave height to just 6,600* (2/80) = 165 feet, and (2) the Irish Sea is only 1,000 feet deep at most! If detonated just off Ravenglass Estuary, you wouldn't get any tidal wave because there would not be the depth of water required; if you detonated it as the deepest part of the [rish Sea, which is 1,000 feet deep, the horizontal target range would increase, reducing the wave height at Scafell Pike to below the 165 feet we just found, and you'd get a further reduction because the scaled depth of burst for 100 megatons in 1,000 ft of water would make it a shallower burst, reducing the fraction of the yield that is coupled into the water as water waves! This is before calculating the
attenuation and breaking of a water wave when it runs far inland and up a mountainside!
There is now detailed published data on the Russian underwater nuclear tests: see Vice Admiral E. A. Shitikov's paper, Testing ships at the Novaya Zemlya test site (see illustrations of the ship set ups for the 1955 and 1957 underwater tests, below): "On Novaya Zemlya, three large-scale full-scale experiments were carried out to study the effect of the damaging factors of an atomic explosion on ships. ... First experience, September 21, 1955 ... to test the atomic charge for a 533 mm torpedo, to assess the impact of an underwater nuclear explosion on ships, and to obtain experimental data to develop the theory of an underwater nuclear explosion ... in Chernaya Bay at the Novaya Zemlya test site, September 21, 1955, power 3.5 Kt, depth 12 m. In the center of the battlefield was a small minesweeper T-393 project 2531, from which a torpedo with a charge was lowered on a cable to a depth of 12 meters. This operation was led by Lieutenant Commander E.L. Peshkur. Target ships were installed at six radii from 300 to 3000 meters. Surface ships stood side and bow to the center of the explosion, submarines - in the surface and underwater position at periscope depth. ... S-19 - due to the fact that the cork on the torpedo tube was knocked out (in accordance with the test program, the front cover was open) , about 15 tons of water entered the first compartment (the damage was repaired by personnel in two days). ... the sinking radii amounted to 300-400 meters, significant damage to light surface ships occurred from a shock wave at a distance of 500-600 meters. Damage to the superstructures of light surface ships from an air shock wave - at a distance of 700-800 meters. Insignificant damage - at a distance of 1200-1300 meters. ... Immediately after testing B.V. Zamyshlyaev promptly carried out a study in which, in particular, he showed that when the same charge is buried by 70 meters, instead of 12 in the experiment, the effect increases by about one and a half times (in deep water)." There is a lot more to follow, but it is
probably best organised into a book rather than blogged about...
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012592 Operation Dominic - Housatonic (99.9% clean 10 megaton Ripple I!) - 12.
Li6D STAGE Li6D
FUSION STAGE FUSION STAGE
100% clean nuclear weapon design, using entirely proof-tested technology } (no speculative B.S.) D+T gas c
ABOVE (update on 13 May 2022): 100% clean H-bomb design (cartoon style sketch, not design blueprint). The basic ideas are illustrated in a previous blog post from 2016, linked here, which describes also the use of von Neumann-Fuchs invention (28 May 1946 patent "Method and apparatus for releasing nuclear energy" of a beryllium oxide ablator as the compressive mechanism in the wall of a fusion capsule. It's clear that the use of plastic and various ablative fusion stage capsule walls underwent a lot of evolution even in the 1950s. That 2016 blog post also gives the references to Teller's idea of magnetic compression of the secondary stage in nuclear weapons, and John S. Foster's work on magnetic flux compression conventional systems to try to power that (however, as we explain, a small nuclear primary stage might be the only way to get it to go!). Another application of such technology is Project orion,
a nuclear impulsive drive that is actually practical, tested technology for space exploration which Joseph Friedlander has
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summarised from blog posts here on The Next Big Future (note that the accidental declassification of the secrets of plastic foam filling the radiation channel of the Mk41 Basoon nuclear device - contrary to its use as a radiation mirror to delay outer case
metal ablation in earlier "sausage" devices tested at operations Ivy and Castle, and the Swift, Swallow and Swan primary stage tests in secret UCRL 4725, dated June 1956, originated from the incorrect implementation of a decision to declassify only a 6-pages
section in UCRL-4725 about nuclear explosives for propulsion of nuclear rockets for space exploration!).
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Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
CAS. Conhowtes— T
Zeldovich and Sakharov, On the use of the product for the purpose of compressing the superproduct RDS-6s, January 14, 1954.
Yury Trutnev (b. 1927), an employee of Zeldovich's department, during an interview on his 90th birthday, stated: “I did a lot of theory of the efficiency of atomic charges. | knew that when they exploded, a lot of energy came out in the form of X-rays. And I started thinking about how to make a thermonuclear charge coated with a light substance - a “coating” ... and with the help of X-rays from the explosion of the primary atomic charge “heat the coating” ... But how to ensure a uniform, symmetrical effect of radiation on the spherical surface thermonuclear charge with “coating”? Here I am stuck. And at some point in the spring of 1954, Zeldovich came from Moscow and said: “I know what to do! Let's emit radiation like this.” And immediately drew a diagram of how to implement the “third idea”. ... That same day I came to Sakharov and said: “Andrei Dmitrievich, here Yakov Borisovich proposes to act with radiation in such and such a way. And I propose to surround the thermonuclear charge with a light substance and with its help to produce compression. And they
=
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stopped there ... This is three people - Zel'dovic Trutnev. Zel'dovich pro how to direct X-rays, S that this radiation is nc the walls of the casing it, and therefore a unif« surface of the thermon: occur. And my idea is z light substance to tran: the required pressure. | I came up with my idea got to their ideas, now guess.”
- Yuri Trutnev, The cre: weapons is a special uv Novosti, 11/22/2017,
https://ria.ru/20171122/
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American
Russian 370 kg thermonu warhead for missiles, put service in 1978.
tapering of secondary stage cylinder
1st ever Russian
MIRV warhead, 210 kg each; first put into service in 1978.
(the tapering is due to the gradual fall of the fusion burn efficiency as it propagates along The tapering seen the length of the in the shapes of
cylinder, if the early American cylinder is Polaris warheads uniform/non- is absent from
tapering) Russian devices, Monoblock warhead of tl which have first megaton range miss
uniform cylinders! submarines, 650 kg, yeai
The 1.6 Mt 22 Nov 1955 Russian test used a spherical-shaped x-rays from a primary stage. Yuri Trutnev used a cylindrical-sl
ABOVE: Zeldovich and Sakharov's January 14, 1954 report, On the use of the product for the purpose of compressing the superproduct RDS-6s which suggested using x-rays reflected by a suitably shaped radiation case on to a spherical fusion secondary stage (a simplified Teller "Alarm Clock", with fissile material in the centre to release neutrons when compressed, lithium deuteride around it which would be hit by neutrons from the fissile material when compressed to fission lithium to yield tritium, an outer shell of uranium-238 as a "pusher" and final fission stage since the 14 MeV neutrons from D+T fusion can fission U-238 efficiently). However, Yuri Trutnev improved this design by placing light material such as beryllium oxide (used as the D+T compressor in the Fuchs-von Neumann superbomb patent) or indeed any light elements (such as the carbon and oxygen in plastics), around the the lithtum deuteride. Photo shows President Putin meeting the designer of later successful Russian devices, Yuri Trutnev (then 90), on 15 November 2017. Trutnev says that the 22 November 1955 successful Russian 1.6 megaton thermonuclear test went to Zeldovich's head and he later had a run of three failed bomb designs in a row, before Trutnev was permitted to test his own new design ion 23 February 1958 in the arctic, with great success (860 kilotons air burst at 3 km altitude); the Russians at this time started testing cylindrical secondary stages in an effort to make warheads more compact for ICBMs and SLBMs. Photos of the first AWRE British single warhead for a Polaris SLBM show it to have a tapering secondary stage (an innovation first revealed by Howard Morland in 1979, see illustration below, which also highlights the problem that Los Alamos expert Vernon Kendrick told Morland at Los Alamos in November 1978 that modern warheads "don't use spark plugs [which Kendrick pointed out to be spheres of plutonium throughout the secondary, a 1960s development] anymore" because the fissile oralloy pusher does the job of releasing neutrons to fission lithium into tritium, formerly done by spark plugs, but Morland s¢i// included a 1950's style cylindrical spark plug in his diagram of a modern 300 kt MIRV warhead and failed to show the tapering of the outercase in line with the tapering of the secondary), whereas photos of otherwise very similar Russian SLBM warheads first deployed in 1978 show no tapering of the secondary stage cylinder. Russia adopted cylindrical secondary stages in place of spherical secondaries, to reduce the diameter of thermonuclear warhead to fit missiles because it was using x-ray mirroring by the outer casing which makes the weapon bulkier than the American designs; whereas America after 1956 filled the radiation channel with a baffle of low density plastic foam instead of using case mirroring, and so went in exactly the opposite direction to the Russians (America went from cylindrical to spherical
secondaries for smaller thermonuclear warheads, whereas Russia did the reverse because it was still using the outer casing as an x-ray
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mirror and needed more space for the mirroring geometry). Putin is seen presenting Trutnev with the Order of Merit to the Fatherland, First Class.
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Update (16 May 2022): https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/16/scenarios-putin-nukes-00032505: By GREGG HERKEN, AVNER COHEN and GEORGE M. MOORE, 05/16/2022 12:00 PM EDT. "Scenario 1: Remote atmospheric test. Least
provocative would be Putin’s resumption of above-ground nuclear testing — by detonating a low-yield nuclear warhead high ... Scenario 2: Atmospheric detonation above Ukraine. A more provocative demonstration would be an ultra-high-altitude explosion of a more powerful weapon over Ukraine itself. In a 1962 test, the U.S. detonated a 1.4-megaton H-bomb in the mid-Pacific, 250 miles above the Earth. The resulting electromagnetic pulse unexpectedly knocked out streetlights and disrupted telephone service in Hawaii... Scenario 3: Ground explosion in Ukraine. Most dangerous — and, for that reason, perhaps least likely — would be using a tactical nuclear weapon to achieve a concrete military objective such as disrupting the delivery of weapons to Ukrainians... In May 1945, weeks before the successful test of the first atomic bomb in New Mexico, former President Harry Truman’s advisers considered, briefly, the option of a harmless but spectacular demonstration of the revolutionary new weapon as an alternative to its military use, in hopes of compelling Japan to surrender. For practical reasons — there were too few bombs in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, and some feared a dud — the demonstration option was never presented to Truman. But the warning shot idea would surface again and be taken more seriously. During the 1961 Berlin crisis, former President John Kennedy was presented with the option of firing a nuclear-tipped missile at Novaya Zemlya to show American resolve. Israel has also considered a nuclear demonstration; prior to the Six-Day War, in May 1967, Shimon Peres proposed detonating a nuclear device over the Sinai desert to head off the conflict. Six years later, the Israelis again briefly entertained the notion of a high- altitude nuclear warning shot to force an end to 1973’s Yom Kippur War. In 1981, with the Cold War again heating up, Secretary of State Alexander Haig — a former NATO supreme allied commander — let slip that “there are contingency plans in the NATO doctrine to fire a
nuclear weapon for demonstrative purposes...” regardless of what Putin decides, engaging Russian forces in direct combat should only be a last resort."
UPDATE (24 May 2022) on yield of Bravo nuclear test: it was mentioned (above) that nuclear effects researcher Dr Gregory Spriggs of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, who has been scanning by computer and re-analyzing old films of nuclear test fireballs, went
on TV last year (during a documentary about the Bravo test) to argue that due to water entrainment by the fireball affecting the fireball
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Fission- bomb Plastic foam filler Elin trigger Fission- bomb radiation channel, with blast " ' trigger shield | ‘ TNT ... you'd need
TNT U-235
Channel filler has active role in implosion: "matter pressure," not "radiation pressure."
U-235 something in there to keep the neutrons off
the secondary."
Radiation is "channeled," not "reflected."
Lithium -6
]
deuteride (Li*D) Pssaecs am ' i Vernon Kendrick ‘ | U-238 casing 8 U-238 casing N H Americana . nos 5 : Americana : Edward Teller Edward Teller ” - -_ a - = Three Concepts «z1 November 1978 in Los Alamos. | had finished interviewing a
Defense Version Manhattan Project veteran... | showed him the Teller
Americana drawing ... | asked if he could add some detail to it, 1. Refiecfion 1. so | could trace the components back to their factories. 5: aaiaiing ™“ > He pointed to the space between the primary and the secondary Bressare
and said, "you'd need something in there to keep the neutrons
3. Compression 3. off the secondary.” ... | knew the Lapp World Book bomb needed to be imploded to set off its plutonium triggers, and radiation Bee pressure inside the outer bottle could do the job. That was the secret, ... Barely containing my excitement, | showed him the (raveated by UORL#725, Gueage Sor Times May other drawing and suggested it might make a good secondary. He pointed to the plutonium balls and replied, "They don't use NBC: BECAL spark plugs anymore.” So they, too, have a name.” HAS BEEN *
expansion rate, its total yield may have been 22 megatons, not 15 megatons as extrapolated from fireballs over land in Nevada. There are some LLNL reports now available, giving some of the basic data on fireball expansion rates and blast arrival times, that backs up what he said (though for other Pacific tests like Zuni and Dakota, not Bravo - note that I would love to see all the fireball films of Bravo in high definition taken from surface level, rather than aircraft above the clouds, since the rather grainy declassified ones so far available show that normal clouds obscured most of the fireball and its thermal pulse at the surface and that you can also see a secondary fireball running down the diagnostic x-ray vacuum pipes!). I'm particularly interested in this because I did an analysis of the G. I. Taylor fireball expansion formula (on vixra) giving analytical - rather than taylor's shoddy numerical integration ("cheating" according to maths professor!) proof of the correct formula (Taylor didn't even get his numerical integration right, making errors in his derivation; so much for the wonders of his so-called brilliant mathematicial brain!). The new LLNL papers are by Kelly M. Cook, Shockwave Arrival Times from Operation Redwing and Operation Upshot-Knothole, LLNL-TR-814172, which in table 1 shows that Redwing-Zuni whose fireball was partly over an island in the south of Bikini Atoll but also extended over the sorrounding lagoon water to the north and ocan to the south, had an entrainment coefficient of 1.075. The value is 1 for no entrainment like the Nevada Climax air burst, and the yield is proportional to the cube of the coefficient, i.e. 1.075°3 = 1.242, so megaton range tests over ocean would have a fireball yield at least 24% higher (or more than 24% if the area covered by highest overpressures had a larger ratio of water area to land area). Secondly, a paper by Adele Myers, Water Entrainment in Nuclear Detonations, LLNL-TR-758735 (extracts below) shows how a funnel of water enters the surface burst fireball in a comparable way to the funnel of water thrown up by the Baker underwater test as also shown below, thus cooling the top portion of the fireball (which as Stanbury pointed out in his paper cited above is the only part that most city windows can see; relevant to coastal cities or cities around large river estuaries). She also gives graphs of relevant data and notes that this effect has
a 100 kiloton yield threshold. Very interesting!
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Fireball Water entrainment line
0.6
Lowe
° wn
sd 5
9 N
Water entrainment makes the bottom half of the 1.1 megaton Redwing-Dakota fireball brighter than
Line Height/ Fireball Height
the top half. This has effects for the fireball determined yields of nuclear tests >100kt over water! 0.1 _— Fireball Water entrainment line spss ee ae cools only the TOP Water spray thrown up by 0 part of the fireball the blast wave hitting 0 water ripples (storm BRIGHT BRIGHT effect) forms a funnel of
water cooled air in fireball
Figure 3: A predicted cross sectional view of the shape that the water entrainment
SOURCE: Adele M would take inside of the nuclear fireball. iba cdakas
Investigation, Lawrenc:
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CONDENSATION RINGS (WILSON CLOUD CHAMB SHIELDING MIDDLE!
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Top of fireball is cooled by water entrai bottom is blocked by city skyline (or clc
.
& ae => NORMAL CLOUDS
BRAVO (15 megatons or 22 megatons) from an aircraft above cloud cover, but surface level: clouds block hot base of
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OK NATIONAL ARCHIVES RS 5/3 DOF SECRET-GUARD
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SCIENTIFIC DATA OBTAINED AT een i ee ne eee esa OPERATION HURRICANE of hteepere pice aes ea tod
TOP SECRET SECTION OF DIECTOR'S aErORT
FIG. 2-3 EXPANSIO FIREBAL WATERLINE.
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BRITISH "Hurricane" 25kt nuclear near surface test (2.7 m depth, in ship)
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ABOVE: Hurricane 25 kt nuclear test at 2.7 m depth inside ship moored in water just 12.2 m deep at Monte Bello had severe fireball cooling by water funnel; its thermal flash yield was only about 1.4%. Fires were started by bits of the ship in very dry vegetation on nearby island, NOT by thermal flash! Also, despite lying from prime Minister Churchill about this test causing a large "tidal" wave, it didn't as the water was too shallow and there was no water innundation to the WWII Anderson shelters on the beach of the island nearest the test! (Churchill was the only person to have been in the Cabinet of the country declaring every single World War in human history, and yet he still failed to ensure the enemy was deterred, despite publically arguing for overwhelming superiorty ahead of each war and also being supposedly a supreme orator and public relations genius according to the similarly deluded mass media and politically correct "historians"). It would be great if this data from a 25 kt near surface nuclear test were used to improve models of water entrainment in fireballs. It seems that the "100 kt limit" for water entrainment is misleading because all it signifies is that at yields below 100 kt you don't find a "water line" in fireball photos since the water/soil is ejected into the fireball so quickly that it cools down the entire fireball (not just the top section where the funnel sprays out horizontally) as seen in the Hurricane test. Similar cooling in surface bursts, caused by crater ejecta entering the fireball very quickly, accounts for the fact that thermal yields in surface bursts are lower than in air bursts. Just in case you are wondering if Russia is aware that clouds etc attenuate thermal radiation, they are; see photos below of the shielding of their first
thermonuclear weapon test fireballs by clouds:
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=
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Wilson clouds shielding thermal radiation fre
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B sKCNO3IK UMM My3eAR NOYeTHOE MECTO 33HAMACT Nepean coperckan cepunHan aromnan 6046a Kopnyc 6orm6b!i Ana 3apaga PAC-1. Heckonbko Takix PAC-4 (aTaroana»)
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‘PAP D crwth
41.2 kt Russian 380m air burst Joe-3 / RDS-3 (composite Pu an
Clouds shielding 50 megaton RDS-220 Tsar Bomba fireball on 30 Octob
ABOVE: clearly some of these RUSSIAN published fireball photos of USSR tests are carelessly switched over and wrongly labelled, e.g. the 400 kt 1953 and 1.6 Mt 1955 tests are a little similar, and easily muddled up by officials in the photo archives. It will be left as an exercise for the reader to sort them properly! (There are so many similar nuclear test photos of fireballs and mushroom clouds that you get nuclear brain paralysis if you look at too many!) .... But it should be noted that confusions like this also led to errors in Dr Frank H. Shelton's Reflections of a Nuclear Weaponeer (2nd ed, 1990; it is identified by extra pages inserted in places with a letter after the page number), for example he reprints the same photo of 1953 shot Grable twice, once labelled as Grable, and later in the chapter on Operation Plumbbob, labelled as 1957 Priscilla! (Contrary to Dr Cary Sublette's false assertions, sorting Grable from Priscilla photos is very easily identifiable since there was NO SMOKE SCREEN in the Priscilla test, see photo of Grable with black-and-white smoke screen clouds BELOW):
"The U.S. press, like the U.S. government, is a corrupt and troubled institution. Corrupt not so much in the sense that it accepts bribes but in a systemic sense. It fails to do what it claims to do, what it should do, and what society expects it to do. The news media and the government are entwined in a vicious circle of mutual manipulation, mythmaking, and self-interest. Journalists need crises to
dramatize news, and government officials need to appear to be responding to crises. Too often, the crises are not really crises but joint
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da 15 kiloton nuclear test Grable at 524 ft bur: ects report:
er | H. E gquist and Charles W. Forsthoff, Protection A | r sens Against Thermal Radiation, Operation Upshot-Kr )test report WT-768, DTIC report ADA995215:
175 smoke pots 200-300 ft from ground zero established
(white smoke screen can be seen to the right of ground z distance of 2238 feet from bomb (or 2166 ft from ground : thermal exposure was 57.5 +/- 5.0 cal/cm’2; behind smok Hence, 98.6% +/-0.3° s stopped by the smoke screen.
Glasstone however first lied in the 1$ Nuclear Weapons (page 289, parag! be stopped (without giving any specific
credible, then he removed all reference 1
editions. Liars still claim he is "authoritati
fabrications. The two institutions have become so ensnared in a symbiotic web of lies that the news media are unable to tell the public
what is true and the government is unable to govern effectively." - https://hbr.org/1995/05/why-the-news-is-not-the-truth
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Russians being prepared for use of nuclear weapons, says Ukri
ABOVE: Ukraine's President Zelensky explaining to John Simpson how his call for Putin to be stopped from starting WWIII has
been perverted by US media liars who love Putin, and how Putin is preparing Russia for nuclear war (although he has not yet completely prepared; Putin probably requires collaboration with China, North Korea, Iran et al. to defeat the West in WWIII, and fortunately they are not yet ready to go that far according to Zelensky). As a step forward for peace and humanity, we've set up twitter.com/nukegate to fight US warmongers! The current world situation is akin to a repeat of the 1930s, with the West causing war NOT by "appeasement" (the scapegoat lie of the pseudo "historians", regardless of whether they are "for" or "against" appeasement, a total irrelevance and red-herring) but by DISARMAMENT OF THE MOST VITAL DETERRENT CAPABILITIES WE HAD IN THE NAME OF PSEUDO-PEACE DUE TO WEAPONS EFFECTS LIARS BEING ALLOWED TO GO UNOPPOSED IN THEIR SCARE MONGERING BS FOR YEARS, TO REDUCE THE CREDIBILITY OF DETERRENCE, AND THUS TO CAUSE ANOTHER WORLD WAR, as we can see from the following quotation from Marshall of the Royal Air Force Sir John Slessor, GCB, DSO, MC, The Central Blue: Recollections
and Reflections (Cassell, London, 1956, page numbers of quotes are given in [square brackets]):
"[p54:] The aeroplane and the bomb enabled us for the first time to enforce submission upon people without killing them. ... [p145:] Where, therefore, blame is due, I must accept my share of it. ... my theme in this chapter can perhaps best be summarized in Sir Winston Churchill's words, 'no foreign policy can have validity if there is no adequate force behind it...’ [Slessor is quoting Churchill, Gathering Storm, 4th ed, p337] ... The climax of misjudgement ... was the surrender at Munich in September 1938. ... Sir Winston Churchill remains convinced that it would have been better, in all the circumstances at the time, to fight Hitler in 1938 [note that the 1938 annexation of Sudetenland including Bohemia gave the Nazis the Joachimsthal uranium mine and many other vital war minerals and heavy industries for munitions production, enabling not just Nazi nuclear research but also conventional weapons production which helped sustain the Nazis in WWI, so the 30 September 1938 surrender to Nazi aggression in Sudetenland by Britain was not "just" about a "few Jews in a faraway land" being murdered in cold blood, or whatever Chamberlain claimed, but it was doing the OPPOSITE of "buying time for BRITISH disarmament"; Chamberlain was knowledgably and dishonestly NOT MERELY BUYING TIME FOR ENEMY REARMAMENT (he rearmed Britain more slowly than the Nazis), but he was also PROVIDING RESOURCES FOR NAZI REARMAMENT, a fact omitted in scam "history" books praising the fascist, anti-libertarian, Nazi collaborator and traitor Chamberlain and his toady pals in the British press] ... He himself has written in his book of the overriding influence of the hatred of war in the hearts of the Democracies, and of our
national unwillingness to provide the force to back our policy. ...
[p148:] [French army commander at the outbreak of WWII, General Maurice] Gamelin was a likable person, a courtly and confident old soldier; but I thought him then [at the September 1938 meeting between Gamelin and Slessor in London, due to the Munich crisis] as remote from reality as he afterwards proved ... At this meeting, he said he would like to attack [Hitler] on land at once, but that the French were very interested in avoiding air attack, and wanted some days to get their Air Raid Precaution [ARP] arrangements under way (actually they had no ARP worthy of the name). ... He thought that heavy air attacks on England would be difficult - it was possible, but he did not regard it as very important. ... No one can say what would have happened if war had come in September 1938. The real key to the situation was not Poland, as Gamelin thought, but Russia. ... If Russia had intervened loyally and wholeheartedly against Hitler, the whole history of the past fifteen years would have been entirely different. ... [p150:] One fact which it is essential for anyone to realise who wishes to understand ... is that the war of 1939-1945 was the first air war. In 1914 to 1918 the Air had been in its too early infancy to have any very significant effect. ... we really did not know anything about air warfare on a major scale. ... [p151:] Anyway, in those years immediately before the war the possibility of what was referred to as the 'knock-out blow' bore heavily on the minds of the Air Staff. We were faced with a potential enemy who could bring against us something between 1,200 and 1,500 first-line bombers [with a combined blast and incendiary effects power in a single air raid, when correcting for correct nuclear blast and thermal devastation area scaling
laws even ignoring the possibility of gas bombing, equal to a typical MIRVed nuclear missile today]. ... There is, of course, always a
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tendency, which should sometimes be discounted, for Military Staffs to over-insure and assume the worst case. But it is difficult to blame the Air Staff for assuming that we might find the whole air-power of Germany directed against this country very early in a war. That was not impossible ... The Joint Planning Committee, in a comprehensive review of the air defence problem in late 1936, had estimated that we might have to endure prolonged attack on the scale of 400 tons a day - and that scale increased with the growth of the German striking
force. ..."
"[p152:] In a minute to the Secretary of State in April 1938, the C.A.S. [Chief of the Air Staff] wrote- 'I feel strongly that the time for mincing words is past and that the Air Staff should state their view of the situation plainly. Their view is that unless the Cabinet are prepared to incur at the very least the full expenditure required for Scheme L and possibly more, we must accept a position of permanent inferiority to Germany in the air. ... in the event of war, our financial and economic strength, which the present financial limitations are
designed to secure, will be of no use because we shall not survive the knock-out blow'."
"[pp.160-1:] Looking back at it now in the atmosphere of 1953, it is almost impossible to believe the extent to which financial considerations were allowed to exert such an influence in bringling us to the very lip of disaster in the face of the Nazi menace, in the years immediately preceding Hitler's war. Every undergraduate knows that a sound economic situation is an essential basis of military strength; but that principle was carried to ludicrous extremes under Mr Chamberlain's Government. I remember one of the Chiefs of Staff saying in this connexion that, as far as he could see, a certain Cabinet Minister was primarily concerned to ensure that we had enough money left to pay the indemnity after losing the war; naughty, no doubt, but that is uncommonly like what it seemed to us in those days. ... Even in the full knowledge of facts such as those I have just described, the Government continued to rule early in 1938 that the three fighting Services between them should not be allowed to spend more than about £1600 millions over the five years 1937 to 1941 - an average of little over £300 millions a year for all three Services; and this eighteen months after the Prime Minister [Chamberlain], as Chancellor of the Exchequer, had confirmed that he knew the Germans were spending £1000 millions a year on warlike preparations, a
figure which by now, of course, was being greatly exceeded."
"[p163:] The parity idea first became theoretically the basis of Government policy in 1923 at the inception of the old 52 squadrons programme, which followed the post-war period when Britain virtually disarmed herself in the air. ... [p165:] Either we were dealing with Hitler - a mad dog out for blood - in which case ... there should have been no question of parity, or anything else but to outbuild him and lull him, regardless of any other consideration; it would have been cheap at the price. Or we were dealing with a German Government ... We should have recognised what we were up against when Austria was swallowed up - at the latest. ... we did not really get down to
arming ourselves on the necessary scale and tempo until after the fall of France in 1940. ..."
"[pp.169-170:] So a time comes, when war appears really imminent, when the 'shop-window' policy [e.g., ying propaganda fed from the prime minister to the editor of the Times to print rubbish on the front page like, a single gas bombing raid or nuclear firecracket can wipe out a city so we don't need to spend serious money on deterrence of yet another world war] must go by the board. This time, in our view, was overdue when Hitler absorbed Austria. On the morning when the German columns were moving on Vienna (March 12, 1938), I sent a minute to the C.A.S. ... 'You may think it wise to suggest to the Secretary of State that ... we should now base our arrangements on the
assumption that we may be forced into war this summer'."
Regarding Winston Churchill, a wartime friend of Slessor whose rantings about the Nazis were ignored by Chamberlain and his entourage partly (as we explained previously on this blog) because Churchill was the last person to be able to lecture them (he sent most of them to hell in his disastrous Gallipoli campaign of 1915, which led to his being fired from the Cabinet in WWI and then being deemed a "warmonger" and fool in the 1930s when he warned those men he had sent to hell in what sounded to them like a conceited, deluded, vain
war-mongering prophecy), Slessor writes on pages 259-260:
"But I do not regard uncritical adulation as a compliment to any man. Mr Churchill is human, and as such makes mistakes; and the mistakes of a really big man are liable sometimes to be big mistakes. I am not so arrogant as to claim that when | disagreed with him I was necessarily right. But this book aims to be a humble contribution to history by recording events as they appeared ... I confess that I thought at the time, and still think, that policy in Scandinavia in the opening months of 1940 was one direction in which Mr Churchill's splendid aggressive spirit got the better of his judgement. ... On September 20, 1939, in the House of Commons, Mr Chamberlain said, 'What we will not do is to rush into adventures that offer little prospect of success and are calculated to impair our resources and to postpone ultimate victory ... Strategy is the art of concentrating decisive force, at the decisive point, at the decisive moment'. That perfectly sound principle had not prevented the British Government a few days before from issuing a declaration that a German attack upon Norway
would meet with the same resistance as an attack upon Great Britain; a declaration, unexceptionable in theory, to which we had about as
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much chance of giving practical effect as to our earlier guarantee to Poland of all assistance in our power - which amounted to precisely
nil."
Naugthy, but true. Chamberlain, the lover of Nazism, was the better strategist, whereas the more "experienced" military man, Churchill was a bungler competent only to issue ranting Goebbels' style propaganda, aided by brandy and cigars, who needed constant restraining and coercing by the straight-jacket of his asylum keepers like Slessor, who were often overcome by Churchill's fits of insanity. In reality,
Slessor writes on page 258, Churchill was a baby who was most happy playing his war with toy bombs:
"This [fluvial mine prototype] was really a sort of toy that Mr Churchill enjoyed playing with - a toy with just the appropriate flavour of aggressive villainy. I remember him one evening, as the little gadget in the fire-bucket touched off its electric bulb, taking his cigar out of his mouth and saying, with his irrestible chuckle, 'This is one of those rare and happy occasions when respectable people like you and I
can enjoy pleasures normally reserved to the Irish Republican Army'." Churchill was not Fiddling like Nero while Rome Burned, but was Commissioning a War Song while London Burned, page 303:
"On one occasion we were walking in the [late 1940 Chequers] garden with the Prime Minister [Churchill] late after dinner. London was being bombed and the eastern sky was red with the glare of great fires. The P.M. gazed at it sadly, shaking his head. Then he said unexpectedly that it was strange that this war, unlike the last, had produced no good songs - no Tipperary or Keep the Home Fires Burning. Someone suggested the Lambeth Walk, but that was held not to count because it was pre-war. 'I must write to Novello and tell
him to produce a good war song,' said the P.M., and then, with the chuckle, 'but this time it will have to be Stop the Home Fires Burning'."
Slessor finishes his book on pages 636-7, stating that the the proven role of air power in WWII, in defeating enemy air power and "Germany's oil fuel" to pave "the way for the invasion", was finally incorporated into British defence policy by Churchill in his postwar Statement on Defence, Commandment 9391: "this deterrent must rest primarily on the stategic air power of the West, armed with its nuclear weapons. The knowledge that aggression will be met by overwhelming (emphasis added) nuclear retaliation is the surest
guarantee that it will not take place."
ABOVE: Russian President Putin used exactly the same excuse for invading Ukrainian territory that Hitler used in his invasions (precise quotation is below): he just wants to enable his nationals abroad to have the "right" to join the Russian Federation, and he repudiates the notion that Ukraine is a soverign country because it is "just" an arbitrary political fabrication like Czechoslovakia was in 1938 (he could - and will soon - be saying that about the UN, USA, EU, UK, etc.). Russia should have been paid off at the end of the 1st Cold War in 1991, with some kind of Marshall Plan, as was used to safely demilitarise Germany, Japan et al in 1945. But the UK instead sent BP into Russia to help them develop high technology oil and gas supplies, which they now use against us. Russia is a corrupt, bankrupt superstate which now has its own oil and gas supplies, its own massive nuclear weapons infrastructure, and a rapidly depleting obsolete conventional weapons stockpile. There are many former USSR territories and other areas Putin can lay semi-spurious claim to, beyond Ukraine. Russia gained Warsaw, Poland, under the 1815 Vienna Settlement, losing it in 1918 when Poland became independent. Finland was gained by Russia from Sweden in 1809, Alaska became Russian territory in 1784 before being sold by the Tsar to USA, and so on. If Ukraine is "simply" surrendered to Russia, the way Chamberlain surrendered Czechoslovakia to Hitler (rewarding Nazis for aggression, using financial costs and fears of poison gas war as his excuse), WWWIII by deliberate "accident" or "miscalculation" will be far more likely than during the Cuban missiles crisis of 1962, when the West had a massive nuclear superiority over Russia! Gustav Bychowski's 1948 Dictators and Disciples explains dictatorship as an interdependence between the leader and the people, e.g. Stalin's war and territorial expansions (with help from propaganda) actually enhanced his reputation with his own people, and he really couldn't have cared less if the
"capitalists" in the rest of the world disapproved.
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Figure 1-2 Expansion of the Russian Empire. Part of the information on this map was derived from the C Europe, pp. 98-99, by permission of the Clarendon Press, Oxford, England.
ABOVE: telegrams from Sir Henderson, British Ambassador to Nazi Germany, to British Foreign Secretary Halifax, 22 February 1939 and 15 March 1939 (taken from Docs on Brit Foreign Policy, s3, v4, pages 593-5 linked online here), proving that even at that late time, freedom of criticism of the Nazis by certain (humane) elements of the British press and Jews (!) were still being blamed for Nazi evil, and this is some 4-5 months after Kristallnacht, and many years after Mein Kampf: Notice that Henderson writes that he would like to see Nazi Field Marshall Goering awarded a medal by the King to appease him (ike his from the King for helping Chamberlain to give away Sudetenland to the Nazis 5 months earlier in exchange for Hitler's autograph!), then writes that he had sympathy with the Jews, but then immediately claims that the Jewish plight is "not a basis for policy for England." When Hitler broke the worthless Munich Agreement by invading the remainder of Czechoslovakia in March 1939, Henderson telegrammed Halifax: "What distresses me more than anything else is the handle which it will give to the critics of Munich." Well, not to Captain W. E. Johns, who was fired two months previously, from his editorships of Popular Flying and Flying on his orders, for criticisms of the government using subversive methods (government pressure on his publisher!). Let's now go back two volumes, and see what Henderson and Chamberlain did to try to start World War II
(while lying about it) in 1938:
"If I am right, I do wish it might be possible to get at any rate 'The Times', Camrose, Beaverbrook Press &c. to write up Hitler as the apostle of Peace. It will be terribly shortsighted if this is not done. Cannot the News Dept. help? ... give Hitler as much credit as possible. The last word is his. We make a great mistake when our Press persists in abusing him. [He and Chamberlain "bravely" abused magazine publishers into getting Captain W. E. Johns fired from his position as editor of best selling magazines Popular
Flying monthly and Flying weekly for calling for the deterrence of Nazi aggression by an arms race, in case their great lover Adolf
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(v) Henderson was UK Ambassador. Sir N. Henderson (Berlin) to Viscount Halifax (UK Foreign Sec.
BRITISH EMBASSY, BERLIN, February 22, 1939
Pages 592-3 of Does. on Brit. For. Policy, s3, v4:
Dear Secretary of State, The following are some of the loose ends of my talk with Goering last weekend.
weaeeeenaee
The Field Marshal was very anxious to know all about the decoration which I had received from His Majesty. I spoke in glowing terms of it and referred to mantles, chains and banners etc. Goering clapped me on the shoulder and said ‘Such orders are never given to foreigners are they?’ I told him very, very seldom which made him look regretful. He has always in mind a visit to London one day and the decoration part might be decisive. It is a point to bear in mind, if ever the
day came. Who cares about your "belief", you're paid to prevent war,
My instincti
and Hitler made his plans clear in Mein Kampf anyhow!!! ling is that this year will be the decisive one, as to whether Hitler comes m the side of peaceful development and closer co-operation with the West ox decides in favour of further adventure eastward. If we handle him right, my belief is that he will become gradually more pacific. But if we treat him as a pariah or mad dog we shall turn him finally and irrevocably into one. I would feel confident if it were not for the British Press or at any rate that section of it which is inspired either by an intelligentzia, which hates Hitler and the
Nazis so much that it sees red whatever the facts are, or by alarmists by profession and Jews. IfI werea at I would move heaven and earth regardless of the conse- to attac.
quences, ny when and wherever I could. Though I thise
with this attitude, it is not a basis for policy for England.
Kristallnacht was 4 months earlier, on 9/10 November 19: a so ALAS is he going
on about? What a fuc sking rac ist, calling for the King to reward Goering a medal!!!
Hitler was a trifle displeased with the British press! So much for liars who claim their exists "freedom of the press"! ..
satisfaction is to slang him, then we must abandon hope of ever getting results."
Page 595: Siz
Dear Secretary of Stat Do you wonder thai Hitler has gone strai
—‘ven for the Germa
great disgust, would ne
move been contempla advantage and the Cz
‘And the extremists ha
eventually regret it. What distresses me |
the critics of Munich: servience of the Czech why all the talk abou turned people’s minds by the extreme Nazis |
lightning turn which ¢ I ows today what Above: Hende: 1939, just afte
remainder of ( One"
Johns, for (weekly) F
. If our only
criti
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- Sir Nevile Meyrick Henderson, GCMG (1882-1942), British Ambassador to Nazi Germany, Letter to Sir A Cadogan from the British Embassy in Berlin, 6 September 1938, reprinted as document 793 on page 257 of E. L. Woodward, Rohan Butler, and Margaret Lambert (editors), Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, Third Series, Volume IT, "1938", published in 1949 by His Majesty's Stationery Office, SBN-11-591527-3*. This particular volume doesn't appear to be available online yet, although it is the dynamite in the series! (I'm quoting this here to PROVE that there is nothing NEW in lying fascists in Western governments promoting racist fascism by secretly wining and dining - or coercing with threats of abuse if the velvet glove over the iron fist fails to work - the populist media into
supporting terrorism against the Jews and others in the name of the Devil.)
'T reminded him [Adolf Hitler, during conversation at Berchtesgaden, 15 September 1938] that after 1914 it was said that if we had then told Germany that we would come in, there would have been no war ... He [Hitler] said a warning and a threat had the same effect. I dissented ... but I did not pursue this subject ... He said that he had from his youth been obsessed with the racial theory and he felt the Germans were one ... he is concerned with ten millions of Germans, three millions of whom are in Czechoslovakia. He felt therefore that those Germans should come into the Reich. They wanted to and he was determined that they should come in. Apart from that, he said,
there was no other place where frontiers made any territorial difficulty. ... he was out for a racial unity and he did not want a lot of
Czechs, all he wanted was Sudeten Germans."
- British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, BRITISH Minute of the Conversation between the Prime Minister and the Fuhrer, 15 September 1938 at Berchtesgaden, reprinted as document 895 at page 339 of E. L. Woodward, Rohan Butler, and Margaret Lambert (editors), Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, Third Series, Volume II, "1938", published in 1949 by His Majesty's Stationery Office, SBN-11-591527-3*. (I'm quoting this here to PROVE that talking to evil devils provides you a load of lies, propaganda,
and false promises.)
"He, Mr Chamberlain, must frankly admit that many Englishmen regarded the Fuhrer's speeches solely as words, behind which
were concealed carefully prepared plans. He, Mr Chamberlain, however, regarded the Fuhrer as a man who, from a strong feeling
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for the sufferings of his nation, had carried through the renaissance of the German nation with extraordinary success. He had the greatest respect for this man ... After 1914 England had been reproached on many sides because she had not made her intentions clear enough. The war might perhaps heve been avoided, these critics objected, if England had taken a clearer attitude. ... The Fuhrer replied that ... after a certain moment, little could be done to change the unalterable course of events. In his opinion a
British warning would have come too late in 1914 as well, since the difficulties had by then reached too advanced a stage."
- British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, GERMAN (Herr Schmidt, translator) Minute of the Conversation between the Prime Minister and the Fuhrer, 15 September 1938 at Berchtesgaden, reprinted as document 896 at pages 342 and 346 of E. L. Woodward, Rohan Butler, and Margaret Lambert (editors), Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, Third Series, Volume II, "1938", published in 1949 by His Majesty's Stationery Office, SBN-11-591527-3*. (I'm quoting this here to PROVE differences between the BRITISH and GERMAN Minutes of the Conversation between Chamberlain and Hitler at Berchtesgaden, 15 September 1938!)
"Herr Hitler said [to Chamberlain at Godesberg, 22 September 1938] that he would like to thank the Prime Minister for his great efforts to reach a peaceful solution. He was not clear, however, whether the proposals, of which the Prime Minister had just given him an outline, were those submitted to the Czechoslovak Government. The Prime Minister replied: Yes. Herr Hitler said he was sorry, since those proposals could not be maintained. ... Czechoslovakia was an artificial construction, which was called into being and was established
solely on the grounds of political considerations." [Cf- Putin's description of Ukraine, DUH!]
- Note of a Conversation between Mr Chamberlain and Herr Hitler at Godesberg, 22 September 1938, reprinted as document 1033 at page 465 of E. L. Woodward, Rohan Butler, and Margaret Lambert (editors), Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, Third Series, Volume IT, "1938", published in 1949 by His Majesty's Stationery Office, SBN-11-591527-3*. (I'm quoting this here to PROVE what
happens when you are such an EGOTIST you think you can "negotiate" a "peace agreement" with the Devil!)
"The Prime Minister [Chamberlain, at the Munich Conference with Hitler on 29 September 1938] pointed out that he could not give such a guarantee [for the Sudeten evacuation of Jews by 10 October 1938 for FAST Nazi annexation] ... This led to a tirade from Herr Hitler (who was otherwise calm throughout most of the Conference), his line being that if - having asked him to stay his hand - we were not prepared to take the responsibility of ensuring the concurrence of Czechoslovakia we had better let him
resume his way!"
- Note by Sir Horace Wilson on the Munich Conference, between Chamberlain and Hitler, 29 September 1938, reprinted as document 1227 at page 631 of E. L. Woodward, Rohan Butler, and Margaret Lambert (editors), Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, Third Series, Volume IT, "1938", published in 1949 by His Majesty's Stationery Office, SBN-11-591527-3*. (/’m quoting this here to PROVE that once you start on the road to diplomacy with a Devil who takes a mile whenever you give an inch, it becomes worse than the
script for an unfunny, depressing episode of Monty Python's Flying Circus. It's worse than the dead parrot sketch!)
"Herr Hitler [to Chamberlain, in Hitler's Munich Flat, 30 September 1938]: Years ago he [Hitler] made proposals for the restriction of the use of the air arm. He himself fought in the Great War and had a personal knowledge of what air bombardment means. It had been his intention, if he had to use force, to limit air action to front line zones as a matter of principle ... he would always try to spare the civilian population and to confine himself to military objectives. ... Herr Hitler: The situation about air disarmament is just the same as it is in the case of the naval situation. If a single nation refuses to agree, all the others have to follow her example. [Secretly-rearming fascists agree to PAPER "disarmanent" for the concessions involved like lifting sanctions etc, but then secretly break the agreement! DUH!] One sees what has happened in the case of the Naval Treaty. When Japan refused to agree, all the other nations had to give up their restriction. It would be just the same if one tried to abolish bombing aircraft. ... He himself [Hitler] had proposed years ago- 1. The abolition of bombing aircraft; 2. If '1.' could not be accepted, the abolition of bombing outside a zone of 15 to 20 km from the front line; and 3. If neither '1.' nor '2.' were accepted, the limitation of bombing to a zone which could be reached by heavy artillery. ... The development of
bombing from the air [Hitler declared] extends the horrors of war to the non-combatant population and is therefore a barbarism."
- Note by Dr Schmidt of a Conversation between the Prime Minister and Herr Hitler, at the latter's Flat in Munich, 30 September 1938, reprinted as document 1228 at pages 636 and 638 of E. L. Woodward, Rohan Butler, and Margaret Lambert (editors), Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, Third Series, Volume II, "1938", published in 1949 by His Majesty's Stationery Office, SBN-11- 591527-3*. (I'm quoting this here to PROVE that negotiating with dictators is a complete farce; they are experts on "peacemaking" and "disarmament" propaganda lying scams and will turn the tables verbally and appear to be the heroes of liberty! It was at the end of this very meeting that Chamberlain did his "magician act" of plucking a piece of paper from his pocket which outlawed war between the
Nazis and British, and they both signed it, which naturally prevented WWII, just as intended! Duh! Wicked diplomacy! It is LINKED
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HERE with a snap of Chamberlain celebrating his "success" back home from the window of his flat above 10 Downing Street, a
fraudulent travesty of propaganda lying which he called "peace in our time", but which would certainly have "earned" him a few
dozen Lordships and Nobel peace prizes, if it hadn't been a staged farce.)
DAILY SKETCH, THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29. 199%.
INSIST ON A FIRST CLASS
| PEDIGREE PRAM
or FOLDER for baby
DAILY
@ Cushion Tyres. @ Easy Running. @ Chromium Plating, etc., ete, Moderately priced. Send for Coloured Catalogue, Lines Bros., (Dept. D.S.), Morden Road, lerton, London, $.W.19.
joe + Oi aI
No. 9,175 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 1938 ONE PENNY
THE MAN THE WORLD ‘LOOKS TO
“How well that faith in Mr. Chamber-
“Refusing to bow to fatigue, refusing to See Editorial Comment. page 15
¢ give way to discouragement, refusing to be lain has been justified! His firmness of | intimidated by opposition or ridicule, he went spirit and gentleness of heart have raised | relentlessly on until his spirit stood alone humanity to a new level. between the waiting armies of the two sides.”
WORLD PRAISES
PREMIER
—PAGE 3
WIRELESS: P. 18
"After
emphasising
that the
gathering was a confidential one, and that nothing was to be quoted as official, the Prime
Minister
[Chamberlain, speaking CONFIDENTIALLY to the "British Press" on 11 September 1938, in a typical travesty of the populist
claims about "freedom of the press" etc.] said: ... War ... is something which might in the very first few hours affect the civilian
population. Thereby it becomes an even more dreadful and horrible thing than it was before. The Government's policy and the
Government's efforts are directed all the time to the avoidance of any such catastrophe as that [a complete lie since slow
rearmament plus appeasement encouraged war as these thugs had been told repeatedly by Captain W. E. Johns in Popular Flying
and Flying editorials, but they had used backhanded techniques to shut up Captain W. E. Johns by getting him fired via
subversive pressure on his publisher, proving them narcissistic lying fascist-technique thugs]."
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- Text of the Prime Minister's Statement to the Press on September 11, 1938, reprinted as Appendix II at pages 680 of E. L. Woodward, Rohan Butler, and Margaret Lambert (editors), Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, Third Series, Volume II, "1938", published in 1949 by His Majesty's Stationery Office, SBN-11-591527-3*. (This book can be read like a depressing thriller in a few hours, but we're quoting it here because, unlike history books full of 2nd-hand controversial opinions based on BS like A. J. P. Taylor's "history", it is purely a primary source of actual meeting transcripts, and it is as hard to get your hands on probably due to its expense and people in 1949 Britain wanting to "move on" from the 1930s "appeasement" disaster. Again, as repeatedly pointed out on this blog, appeasement is a wonderful thing and not a problem UNLESS you do it through coercive fear about being wiped off the face of the earth in a 1930s imaginary poison gas cloud, or a 1950s over-hyped nuclear radioactive fallout cloud (all such hyped up "threats" can be easily countered, as we will see in this post, later below). Kennedy made the point in 1940 in Why England Slept that appeasement was not a tragic policy; the bad policy was instead a REFUSAL to rearm FASTER than your opponent, simply out of fear of upsetting your opponent or triggering a first strike against yourself if you don't appease the enemy. Coercion is the problem, not "appeasement". By all means appease if you have might on your side and can afford to give favours, just don't do it out of WEAKNESS to encourage your opponent to keep advancing
until your back is against the wall, fighting on your opponent's terms.)
ABOVE: compiler of this blog post, anti-nuclear-disarmament (aka Marx-war-for-global-communist-and-peace-through-classwar-and- racewar-and-nuclear-war) liars, anti-fascist activist Nige Cook, holding the fascist Marx-media to account for causing the Ukraine War since 2006 on this blog with his dad (who took the photo) and author of the 1990-4 Nuclear Weapons Effects Theory (censored from publication by Cambridge Uni press's Simon Mitten, Oxford Uni press's Donald Degenhardt, and all the various hyper left wing anti- nuclear lying newspaper editors in the UK, all duped simpletons who believed disarmament Glasstone or Nukemap style populist liars for
"peace" aka russian racewar/classwar/nukewar/eurowar/corbynwar).
Russian State TV Channel 1 arguing for use of nuclear weapon
ABOVE (VIDEO CLIP): Russian State TV Channel | preparing Russians mentally for nuclear war (they already have nuclear shelters and
a new Putin-era tactical nuclear war civil defense manual from 2014, discussed later in this blog post) arguing for use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine war in 2023: "We should not be afraid of what it is unnecessary to be afraid of. We need to win. That is all. We have to achieve this with the means we have, with the weapons we have. I would like to remind you that a nuclear weapon is not just a bomb; it is the heritage of the whole Russian people, suffered through the hardest times. It is our heritage. And we have the right to use it to defend our homeland [WFT does he mean, the liberated components of the USSR that gained freedom in 1992?]. Changing the [nuclear use] doctrine
is just a piece of paper, but it is worth making a decision."
PLEASE see quote (LINKED HERE) from disarmament liar Noel-Baker on gas masks being universally agreed by experts to be impossible despite their successful use in WWI, in his February 1927 BBC radio broadcast on page 31 of O'brien's official book Civil Defence, linked here, and note that the officials were outraged by this lying, YET REFUSED TO DO ANYTHING TO COUNTER IT BECAUSE THE TIME WAS NOT YET RIPE, and by the time it was ripe it was too late to avert WWII!
BELOW: extracts from the unclassified-yet-censored-for-publication "limited distribution" American government book by John Northrop (Handbook of Nuclear Weapon Effects Abstracted from EM-1, a few pages are linked here to give the flavour of it, without publishing the entire document which might contain some sensitive data somewhere, and it would take scanning time that I don't have anyway), effectively replacing Glasstone's 1977 lies book on nuclear weapons. The terrible Carter admin politically correct — i.e. trash — 1977 version of Glasstone’s book, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, deletes all the useful data on protective measures nuclear tests in previous versions, creating the delusion that a nuclear bomb on an unobstructed desert creates the same effect as in a highly shielded concrete city, where buildings PROVABLY absorb all the effects — radiation and also blast as proved by Lord Penney to the continuing
horror of the Pentagon’s nuke disarmament freaks — VERY effectively, reducing casualties by a factor on the order of 100 from what you
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eo
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get for Glasstone’s assumption of nukes over nudist beaches! This is an exact duplication of Britain's gas warfare lying establishment in the 1920s-30s, which refused to engage in public arguments on weapons of mass destruction to debunk lying fascist disarmament and arms control liars, who wanted a world war or peaceful Nazi world domination, not credible deterrence with honest, simple civil defense to make it credible. Over 40 years ago, Samuel Cohen's neutron bomb "controversy" raged: because modern city concrete and steel buildings are blast and heat resistant (unlike the wooden houses with charcoal stoves prevailing in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945), you can detonate a nuclear weapon at a height that eliminates modern city damage and fallout dust, but that still causes non-lethal EMP or a lethal neutron flash to stop operations by an opponent. So nuclear weapons can be used to credibly deter the invasions that set off the world wars (Belgium 1914, Poland 1939). The CND/Corbyn claim that there will be uncontrolled automatic nuclear escalation from counterforce to countervalue attacks on civilians is like the claim of inevitable gas war knockout-blow city gas war escalation: gas
knockout blow escalation was disproved.
Russian State TV channel prepares its people for nuclear war 2
Nuclear explosion impact on humans indoors @ . s : UNCLASSIFIED This report cites the dangerous lies, SS Significant Reduction in Tota Cite.a5: Phys. Fluids 35, 016M16 (2023); dol: 10 1063/5.01525¢ 4 Glastsone and Dolan 1977 Effects of j sla ama aia = Nuclear Weapons, which falsely uses unobstructed desert data for blast and thermal effects which ignores the shielding effects measured in Hiroshima and Nagasaki by Penney, and the blast data on humans from Hiroshima and Nagasaki!
& ©
oannis W. Kokkinakis® @ and Dimitns Onikaios” @
AFFILIATIONS
ABSTRACT
Dose (cGy)
https://archive.org/details/TheEffectsOfr heAtomicBombOntliroshima/mode/2up? view=theater a
Distance from GZ (m) https://archive.org/details/NuclearEffects one ExaggerationsDebunked/Nuclear% 20effects%20exaggerations% 20debunked/page/n281/mode/2up? view=theater
190
® Peg Penney actually Se visited Hiroshima an
2-1: ratte of energy te fatten vx, oxCMate pow ao im ety Oo Looting
shielding, which Glasstone ignored! : : - : ornen wucsies mesecs “es
Cue tiity rathe fou tomasans
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/
PEAR OVERERESSURE FALL DVE 70 OAMAGE DONE, §
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10
s oe
Mortality Index
a
“
0.1
a
10°?
SOURCE:
Mean quantity of explosive per incident Mortality index (Scatter of data in class (tonnes) (fatalities per tonne)
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Fig 3 Variation of mortality index with size of incident for explosives (from table E) In W
1.51
Som cover over most of the danger area before the blast milli
arrives. For nuclear explosions, there IS time to duck => 943, and cover from the blast, because of the larger area! | gh.)
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« Ener gy typh i so aes expl points is eliminated was when population 120
density and shielding Theoretical line with mortality WWI effects are included) ¢ index ¢¢ (quantity)"¥3
For low yield explosions, there is no time to duck and
8
equi The overpressure areas scale as only the 2/3 | *-9)’ power of energy release, so larger wea explosions produce FEWER casualties per ton | con
of TNT equivalent than smaller explosions! expl 100
3 #4 39 6 7ROr 2 3 4 567851 2 3 4 5 67 ages 2 3 4 567691 2 304567691 2 3 456789
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 the
Mean quantity of explosive — tonnes Th
: e on
ra Health & Safety Commission Advisory C ommittee 1 : ‘ th
on Major Hazards
HER MAJESTY'S STATIONERY OFFICE 1979 SECOND REPORT ”
The "equivalent megatonage" or equivalent to 1 megaton nuclear weapons, isn't just 0.29 megatons, but is immer casualties scale by only about the 2/3 power of energy, not directly with yield, and each average shell contained c
equivalent megatonnage of Britain's shelling in 1917 alone is:
$0,000,000(3.7 x 10°9)23 = 120 separate 1 megaton nuclear weapons. In the whole of WWI, the British Army
damage to: 170,000,000(3.7 x 10°9)23 = 408 separate 1 megaton nuclear weapons. Now consider WWII, where London alone received about 18.8 kilotons in roughly 188 thousand separate 100 kg
188,000(10°’)?3 = 4 thermonuclear weapons, each 1 megaton.
The 1.3 megatons of conventional bombs dropped on Germany in WWII was likewise equivalent to:
13,000,000(10°’)23 = 280 separate thermonuclear weapons, each 1 megaton.
In total, 74.2 kilotons of conventional bombs were dropped on the UK in WWII causing 60,000 casualties, equiv: weapons, confirming the British Home Office analysis that - given cheap-type civil defence - you get about 3,75( weapon. Naturally, without civil defence, as in early air bombing surprise attacks or the first use of nuclear weap casualty rates can be over 100 times higher than this. (For example, Glasstone and Dolan, in The Effects of Nuck Hiroshima the 50% lethal radius was only 0.12 mile for people under cover in concrete buildings, compared to 1. unprotected outdoors. The difference in areas is over a factor of 100, indicating that the casualties in Hiroshima «
neonle had taken cover in cancrete hnildings ar cimnle earth cavered WWTI chelters which affered cimilar nratec
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PYM PAY Sater teeewae WU wa Bee WEEE EN Wr RPeaRreee Sy We EEE ES WEEE LEA WU TER TT Ty ae Seawaewa Vr asawas Weare Cassaaae Prawins
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Try W = 1 MT: SGR = 850 feet/(1,000 K° Try W = 100 KT: SGR = 850 feet/(100 K Try W = 200 KT: SGR = 850 feet/(200
GE (fuKT 1/3)
PROBABILITY OF DAMAGE (percent) _——=> —
z = c =) = a Oo Cc oO Q Ww — = oO ”
Figure 15.33. V Roofed Stru (Structure C
1,000 a
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Table 15.6. Structural Parameters and Ductilitie
STATIC YIELD « NATURAL PERIOD, T RESISTANCE, ry STRUCTURE STRUCTURE (msec) (psi)
LOWER NOMINAL UPPER LOWER NOMINAL UPPER LOWE
CATEGORY TYPE
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ABOVE: notice the thermal flash self-shielding of wheat fields from thermal radiation! In reality, anything inflammable merely smokes
from the ablation of the outer 0.1mm or so of inflammable material, and thus creates its own protective smokescreen that prevents fires,
and nuclear weapons don't ignite anything unless things are practically self-combusting anyway. In very dry weather with a shifting
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Arabian proverb, a forest only burns due to its own trees. Nuclear weapons thermal pulses are so short, unlike say the K-T impact
explosion around 65 million years ago, that they can only dry out a very thin surface layer of humid "inflammable" (when dry) materials like vegetation. This was proved by studies of the forest stands on Bikini and Eniwetok during and after multimegaton nuclear tests (photos linked here; taken from Glasstone 1957 and removed corruptly and dishonestly from future propaganda not fact based editions). Sure, you get smoke without fire from nuclear weapons thermal radiation, but that smokescreen arises rapidly near ground zero and so shields targets ar greater distances. The existence of an artificial skyline of concrete buildings in the "concrete jungle" of modern cities - unlike Hiroshima and Nagasaki which were mostly single storey wood frame buildings - has a similar effect as proved by British nuclear tests civil defence effectiveness researcher George R. Stanbury, who was ignored for decades for political propaganda reasons by the Pentagon. Dad, an advanced civil defence corp instructor, met Stanbury during a residential course at the civil defence staff college, Easingwold, Yorkshire (having special authority from Essex's Civil Defence chief, to attend as the course was usually for full-time employees only), and later corresponded with British nuclear test and Hiroshima and Nagasaki blast effects expert William G. Penney on blast shielding by cities by blast; he found that both knew that their own specialised effect - thermal and blast, respectively - was exaggerated, but both falsely believed that the other effect. Stanbury "knew" blast was the problem because skyline shielding would stop the radiation and getting people to simply toss wet paper on their fires on the attack warning siren would create an effective smokescreen to stop scattered thermal ray fires/burns, while Penney knew that the blast absorption by damage done in modern cities would kill the blast, but thought the thermal flash would start firestorms because he hadn't bothered to investigate ther firestorm mechanism in Hiroshima and had been misled to lies from the Americans on this. Consequently, neither felt inclined to launch a full-on assault on the Pentagon's nuclear weapons
effects mythology!
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ABOVE: Russian mobile nuclear missile launchers can move quickly enough to get out of the ~4 psi peak overpressure blast zone (needed to overturn them, provided the blast hits them side-on and not head-on), during the time American Minuteman or Trident missiles are in flight to targets located well inland in Russian territory, e.g. Siberia. Hence, we have toss all deterrence, even if they all get dementia and decide NOT to launch-on-warning in an intense East-West crisis! Duh. Duh. Duh! We'll discuss this in more detail later. EM-1 contains a mathematical model allowing detailed calculations of blast wind pressure induced overturning of mobile missile launchers based on their
size and mass, but as we've just pointed out, they can reduce vulnerability simply by moving off when a USA launch is detected, and then
turning to face their previous position, and extending their stabiliser/outrigger foot pads. "Simples!", as the Meerkats say in UK TV ads.
We have no credible deterrent whatever. We'll discuss this problem of mobile Russian ICBM and tacticla nuclear warhead launchers later
in more detail in this post (below).
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e weapon type ; In - 8 : neutron a gammas output spectra e varlous ius i i. _ he . types out é
13 in EM-1) shows precisely the output from the W79 enhanced-neutron capable tactical deterrent, the only thing we ever had to counter 2000+ Russian neutron bombs. One little snag: we don't have ANY W79's. They were flushed down the pan along with Ukraine's nuclear deterrent. Second little snag: the LOWEST neutron output weapon is type 10 in EM-1 and is conveniently not included in Northrop's summary table above! Guess what the hell the type 10 is? Yup. You guessed right: the primary-only ("tactical") option on the B61's dial-a- yield. The W79 or "type 13" neutron bomb air burst at 500 m altitude gives a dose at ground zero of 170,000 rads of neutrons plus 27,200 rads of secondary gamma rays, according to EM-1. At the other end of the scale, the lowest neutron dose, just 0.666 rads, is produced by the type 10 in EM-1, the low-yield fission primary stage "dial a yield" option of a B61 thick-cased thermonuclear weapon having multiple yield options. This is because the casing on a weapon with high yield options absorbs most of the neutrons from the primary stage, and thereby shows that you cannot simply use the low-yield option on a B61 as a replacement for tactical nuclear weapons like neutron bombs. USA nuclear warhead designers have lied to the public and the president about this to make the West vulnerable to Russian coercion, an infiltration by traitors which makes the Wen Ho Lee "scandal" about data leaked to China look like a storm in a teacup (the
USA has declassified some B61 design detail, shown later below).
"William J. Broad: Ukraine gave up a giant nuclear arsenal 30 years ago. Today there are regrets. At the end of the Cold War, the third largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine. The Soviet collapse, a slow-motion downfall that culminated in December 1991, resulted in the newly independent Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms that Moscow had stationed on its soil. Underground silos on its military bases held long-range missiles that carried up to 10 thermonuclear warheads, each far stronger than the bomb that leveled Hiroshima. Only Russia and the United States had more weapons." - https://kyivindependent.com/hot-topic/william-j-broad-ukraine-gave-up-a-giant-nuclear-arsenal-30-years-ago-today-there-are-
regrets
DISARMAMENT WARMONGERING RESULTS: (1) Disarmament via agreement (ignoring for now the 30 September 1938 UK-Nazi signed peace pact, etc) was disproved by Putin when - despite being signed up to the Chemical Weapons disarmament conventions, he ILLEGALLY BROKE THE DISARMAMENT AGREEMENTS and used chemical weapons, not just sarin nerve agent to help Assad win in Syria, but the latest most lethal Russian agent, Novichok, in the UK in 2018 to murder Dawn Sturgess (please see our blog post chronology at the time of the attack and analysis of Russian lying propaganda on disarmament, linked here). [fhe does that for Novichok, he can do it for tactical nuclear weapons! In WWII nuclear weapons were even made in secret from scratch by a democracy which had never made a nuclear weapon and wasn't even sure if it was possible, and then used on a nuclear unarmed state during the war, despite the democracy in question not having stockpile containing a single nuclear weapon when the war started! So this proves that 100% total disarmament can't stop a nuclear war! Unbelievable fact, that, according to the simplistic, fake news and smug disarmament lies you read in the papers and see on fascist style SIPRI lying TV murderers of kids through disarmament to prevent the credible deterrence of war, isn't it? Thus, paper agreements with the entire class of lying thug dictatorships that use WMDs to win a war against you, are useless. Hoping Hitler would cover himself shame if he violated agreements wasn't a good military policy, but it was used by thugs who clearly wanted a war in the 1930s and were rewarded with peace prizes in consequence (Angell and Philip Noel-Baker were the worst of the lot; the latter was made a Lord and continued to splutter lies for disarmament in 1980 in the House of Lords with no opposition, as we'll expose later in this post). The counter-argument that signed up agreements are rarely broken between democracies is vacuous because as Weart proved in Never At War years ago, democracies don't fight one another. In other words, the only situation in which written laws stop wars or crimes is for lad-abiding people who don't start wars or commit crimes! The only situation where wars or crimes can occur is for despots and criminals, who break agreements and laws! So bits of paper are no substitute for credible deterrence of dictators. The whole basis for "arms control" and "disarmament" is as fake a Angell's faked Great Illusion "disprove" of arms-races to avoid wars, which led to precisely what he claimed to avoid. See Joad's 1939 Why War for how Angell used his "arms race" lie to counter Churchill's pre-WWI call for superiority to deter the Kaiser, and see President kennedy's Why England Slept to see how Angell's arms-race lie was used by Grey to excuse his failure to deter WWI, and how disarmers used that arms race lie repeatedly throughout the 1920s and 1930s to set off WWII, by ensuring Britain avoided an arms race with the Nazis, by rearming slower than the Nazis to avoid giving Hitler any excuse to set off WWI - by the way, this was 100% successful and Hitler didn't declare war on the UK first, it was the UK that finally had to
declare war because appeasement allowed virtually bloodless invasions and cold-blooded genocide!),
(2) unilateral nuclear disarmament for guaranteed peace! Wonderful idea. But Japan was in a nuclear unarmed position in August 1945, and it did not take a Hitler or a Putin or even a Republican to drop not one but two nuclear weapons on it. Democratic President Harry
Truman didn't hesitate to "press the metaphorical button" against a country which lacked nuclear weapons, just as the USA presently lacks
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with 2000+ tactical neutron bombs against a USA which now hates Kennedy's Why England Slept).
(3) HISTORY SHOWS THE ONLY COUNTRY TO HAVE BEEN ATTACKED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS (AUGUST 1945) DID N-O-T HAVE ANY NUCLEAR WEAPONS. BEING NUCLEAR UNARMED DIDN'T SAVE IT FROM BEING NUKED. Moreover, the pre-war stockpiles that disarmers concentrate on minimising are almost purely FOR DETERRENCE, as easily proved by dividing those pre-war (pre WWI and pre WWII) weapons stockpiles into the total munitions used in wars. In other words, the number of pre-war weapons you have has jack ---- relation to the number of weapons used in the war you fail to credibly deter! This COMPLETELY DISPROVES THE "ARMS RACE" CAUSES SLAUGHTER MYTHS OF WWI AND WWII! The weapons that flattened the wooden houses (not concrete buildings in general, or air raid shelters in general) in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and that burned the wooden medieval slums of Hamburg, were made DURING THE WAR, not in the non-existent "arms race" prior to the war. (Let that fact sink in for 24 hours before you read Glasstone or play with Nukemap, or head "history" written by Russian biased Marxists like A. J. P. Taylor and Adolf
Hitler. Don't trust those Nazis, the're unreliable due to bias!)
(4) GLASSTONE/NUKEMAP IGNORE THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT USE/EFFECT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS: DETERRENCE IS AN EFFECT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND A USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS THAT YOU IGNORE AT YOUR PERIL, AND AT THE PERIL OF UKRAINIAN KIDS, AND IN FUTURE, THE LIVES OF AMERICAN KIDS WHO YOU INSTRUCT NOT TO DUCK AND COVER AND NOT TO HAVE A DETERRENT THAT IS CREDIBLE! This is all Russian Cold War anti-Western civil defence lying! Russia was (and is) totally pro-civil defence just as it is and was always pro-nuclear; the anti-civil defence stuff and anti nuclear stuff from Russia and its comintern comrades in the Western Marx Media is a trick to undermine Western defence, enabling Russian superiority; unfortunately people like Hans Bethe and the entire Western "arms control and disarmament" organization fails to appreciate the con-trick and hypocrisy from Russia on this. As a result, the effects of nuclear weapons have been totally distorted by Glasstone / Nukemap propaganda on behalf of pseudo (fake news) "Arms Control" liars who are effectively fellow travellers of Putin's agents in the media: nuclear weapons in the Kennedy era were used to try to de- escalate crises, e.g. USA had a large nuclear superiority at the time of the October 1962 Cuban missiles crisis and in his 22 October 1962 television address to the American people, Kennedy was able to use that nuclear superiority to deter what the Marx media call nuclear "accidents" (deliberate carelessness or contrived attacks under the name of a "that was JUST a mistake - SORRRRRREEEEY, now I've said sorry shut the ---- up about it or you'll start a REAL war, matey!"). Guess what? "Arms Conrol" mass-murderers with kid's blood soaked hands who caused all the wars that should have been credibly deterred by USING TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO CREDIBLY DETER WAR, refuse to acknowledge, assess, or respect the true fact that kennedy used nuclear superiority in 1962 and that parity and inferiority encouraged genocide by the Nazis! What newspaper or TV station in the corrupt West will publish this? None. They're all determined to soak their hands repeatedly in blood so they can report mass murders, not deter war (a newsroom "non-event:
move along please, nothing to see here" that doesn't exactly "boost viewing figures or sell toilet paper").
GLASSTONE'S EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNOBSTRUCTED TERRAIN DATA DEBUNKED FOR STRATEGIC COUNTERVALUE DETERRENCE
If the effects of nuclear weapons are so terribly extensive, why not simply reduce their yields from megatons to subkiloton yield like the W54 warhead? If fallout is such a problem, why not use air bursts and also put up with a reduction in overall yield to use a clean (non-oralloy loaded) secondary stage, like the 95% fusion Redwing-Navajo test of 1956? Such questions get to the heart of the groupthink political disarmament mythology on nuclear weapons. The reality is that there are serious problems in public appreciation of nuclear deterrence. The whole concept of deterrence is undermined by secrecy. Once your opponents have nuclear weapons, secrecy only serves to keep the populations of democracies ignorant of the facts. As with Edward Witten promoting superstring "theory" with the fake news claim "there are no alternatives to what we say" (and consequently such alternatives must be opposed and censored out by groupthink fake "peer" review), underhand methods are used by the self-enobling "disarmament" brigade to make false assertions about nuclear weapons, to undermine nuclear deterrence. Such "peace" media propaganda and "disarmament" lying was used by Hitler to generate appeasement which allowed WWIL, and again in the Cold War it was backed by the USSR via the Moscow based World Peace Council, which infiltrated disarmament organizations in the West with propaganda. The exaggeration of nuclear weapons effects by draconian propaganda for disarmament is now leading to a lack of credible deterrence of precisely the kind of invasions (Belgium 1914, Poland 1939) that triggered both world wars. In reality, if you disarm democracies sufficiently that Teller's deterrent criterion of "overwhelming superiority" is removed, you
clearly invite a return of the world war. Perhaps the most absurd kind of exaggeration is the Glasstone/Nukemap application of
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free-field nuclear test data from deserts to modern concrete cities which absorb energy from blast, nuclear and thermal radiation
quite efficiently. (All published here in 2006, and ignored.)
If you're sick of reading rubbish on nuclear effects by authors who defend Russian aggression as a reaction against Western imperialism, and that the Ukraine war proves we must disarm now to prevent nuclear deterrence of WWIII (some gung-ho military folk will endorse that, too, seeing some kind of fun to be had in the hell of a conventional WWIII or more likely surrender and then an unelected "world government for peace" of the Brezhnev variety), then one really good, well informed nuclear weapons history (unlike the Hiroshima effects lies and propaganda about people with no feet running around in Hiroshima quoted uncritically by Mr Rhodes et al.), albeit subjected to a hate rant by Carey Sublette ("Most of the text that is not Shelton’s actual recollections or direct commentary is lifted verbatim from government reports"), who also runs a site promoting lying ignorant crap about nuclear weapons designs and effects over unobstructed deserts being applicable to modern city targets and who falsely claimed it contained plagiarism (it doesn't, and the Nukemap guy also deleted a comment by me pointing out that Feynman does write about what he actually did at Los Alamos - e.g. running the implosion calculations on IBM mechanical card sorters - in one of his books, after the Nukemap guy had attacked Feynman for allegedly not being clear), is the Shelton's Reflections of a Nuclear Weaponeer (very brief extract of under 5% of the book is linked here, just to give the flavour), particularly the 2nd edition of 1990 which has enlarged page litho printing (it's literally the size and mass of a good old fashioned Church Bible) and contains vital updates like color photos supplied by Agnew, and also in the last notes section, Lord Penney's endorsement of the 1st edition. Shelton (October 4, 1924 - November 27, 2014) doesn't pander to the USSR, their spies, or radiation orthodoxy. He writes that by helping to credibly deter WWIII, the bomb proved useful and we don't
need to forget that. Not a message Putin and his friend thugs in Western "arms control and disarmament" seem to appreciate.
Also in living memory (but now practically entirely deleted from the mainstream pseudo-"history" of the appeasement, disarmament, collaborate-with-thugs-for-peace-not-nuclear-deterrence pseudo-"communists") is Andrei Sakharov’s Memoirs (Knopf 1990), which
details the gulag and psychiatric treatment provided by the CCCP for dissidents.
Sakharov was exiled with his wife to Gorky by Brezhnev for criticising the latter’s decision to invade Afghanistan at the end of 1979. He was there relentlessly persecuted by the KGB and went on repeated hunger strikes for 7 years until Gorbachev released him. His statement
of 27 January 1980 (Appendix B of his Memoirs, pp. 673-5):
“On January 22, I was detained on the street and taken by force to the USSR Procurator’s office ... | was asked to return the medals and orders and certificates ... Rekunkov also informed me of the decision to banish me to the city of Gorky, which is closed to foreigners ... I was instructed to report three times a month to the police ... The authorities are completely isolating me from the outside world. The house is surrounded 24 hours a day by police and the KGB, who keep away all visitors, including my friends. Telephone connections with Moscow and Leningrad are cut off. We have not even been able to call my wife’s mother ... Even in prison, there is more possibility of communication with the outside world ... The worsening of the international situation was caused by the following actions of the USSR ... Supporting terrorist regimes ... Supporting the actions of quasi-governmental terrorists in Iran who have violated diplomatic immunity ...
the invasion of Afghanistan ...”
(That time, we still had the W79 neutron bomb, the threat of tit-for-tat retaliation if Russia tried to escalate to win that war.)
posted by Nuclear Weapons Effects 10:47 pm x
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First Student Body officers at Boulder City High School, in 1942: Mary Rol https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 441/510
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Exank.Shelton, Bob Clark, Mary Jane Carter.
At 3:37 pm, @ Anonymous said...
Why the UK and Nato are opposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine Patrick Daly - Evening Standard - 02 March 2022
Ukrainian leaders and civilians have been imploring Britain and its western allies to implement a no-fly zone in a bid to stem the Russian invasion of their country.
But Boris Johnson, US President Joe Biden and other Nato leaders have been adamant that they cannot actively get involved in the fighting.
Here is a look at some of the reasons the West is against policing a no-fly zone. — It could lead to the Third World War
The Prime Minister made clear during his trip to Estonia on Tuesday that having British service personnel enforcing a no-fly zone would be likely to mean “shooting down Russian planes”.
He said such a move would be an escalation of the conflict, and effectively mean the UK fighting Russian forces in Ukraine.
The Nato alliance, including the UK, possesses nuclear weapons, as does Russia, meaning involvement by its members could lead to nuclear warfare, with devastating consequences.
General Sir Adrian Bradshaw, Nato’s former deputy supreme allied commander, said Nato entering the struggle would “amount to 30 countries against Russia”.
“This is the Third World War in anybody’s language. We cannot afford to let that happen,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
At 4:07 pm, & Put Tin said...
Yep, former Nato commanders don't want to put out the fire before it really takes hold, for fear of WWIII, but that was the situation Chamberlain was in at the munich conference on 30 September 1938. If you are going to have to throw water on an incipient fire and face a cloud of hot steam, it is usually best to do it sooner rather than later. Delaying this process until you have a firestorm to put out, doesn't increase your safety. You are better off taking the consequences of early intervention (a blast of hot steam) than waiting and then throwing your bucket of water into a raging firestorm, where it has no effect at all.
World War 3 warning: NATO troops on ground in Ukraine would spark 'Third World War'
NATO troops in Ukraine would spark the beginning of the Third World War, a former commander has warned. By CLAIRE ANDERSON
06:35, Tue, Mar 1, 2022 | UPDATED: 07:42, Tue, Mar 1, 2022
Former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander, NATO, General Sir Richard Shirreff warned if NATO countries were to get involved in the Ukraine-Russia conflict or if a no fly zone was imposed, it would be the start of World War Three. Speaking to Sky News, Sir Richard said: "If Britain and other NATO countries got involved directly in fighting in Ukraine that is a start of a third world war, no question about it. Similarly, if any attempt to impose a no fly zone would guarantee a start of a third world war.
"It is a brutal fact of life that Ukraine is not a member of NATO and therefore is not covered by the guarantee of collective defence that says an attack on one is an attack on all.
"The very best NATO can do now is stop any form of expansion of the war by defending NATO territory, demonstrating that it is prepared to fight to the teeth to defend NATO territory.
"But also to continue to support Ukraine undirectly with weapons, equipment and other capabilities as well and potentially help prepare the Ukrainians to fight underground if it comes to that."
Ummm, not sure how he siggests that Ukrainians should plan to "fight underground". (Maybe former Nato commanders are going to send in badgers and moles to help with that, since they refuse to impose a no fly zone or provide tactical nuclear deterrence or anything that actually works? Maybe he just means fight an "underground resistance movement" while the Russians have invaded the above-ground parts of Ukraine? Nato defeatism at its worst.)
At 10:24 am, & Boris Broadcasting Company said...
In WW? Russia won half of Europe and rebuilt to fast, even without the nuclear bombs and civil defense shelters it later built in the Cold War. They don't lose wars like Vietnam. They only lost Afghanistan due to Reagan's decision to arm the Taliban with stinger surface to air missiles, to shoot down Russian fighter bombers and create an effective "no fly zone"!!!!
Of course to warmongers like Biden, Reagan was a "dangerous fanatic" and peace is horrible. His second son, Hunter Biden, invited the Ukrainian energy company, Burisma, to meet Joe Biden, and Hunter is alleged to receive a $10 billion annual fee from Chinese billionaire for introductions to his dad, etc according to the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-54553 132 which adds:
"A former business associate of Hunter Biden has come forward to say he can confirm the allegations.
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Tony Bobulinski told Fox News that, contrary to Joe Biden's statements that he had nothing to do with his son's business affairs, Hunter had "frequently referenced asking him for his sign-off or advice on various potential deals" in China.
Mr Bobulinski, who is reportedly a US Navy veteran, separately told Fox News' Tucker Carlson that he had met on two occasions with Joe Biden to discuss business deals with China, the first time in May 2017 when Barack Obama's former vice-president was a private citizen.
He says he asked Joe Biden's brother, James, whether the family was concerned about possible scrutiny of the former vice-president's involvement in a potential business deal with a Chinese entity. Mr Bobulinski told Fox News that James Biden had replied: "Plausible deniability"."
At 10:50 am, & Donna said... Boris, Ukraine's president asked Biden to grant him 3 wishes (any of them would win the war):
Wish 1: Oil sanctions. Wish 2: Aircraft. Wish 3: No fly zone.
None were granted, for obvious reasons. Oil sanctions would push up the price of gas in the USA, which in Biden's view is a bigger political problem than fallout from the escalation of the Ukraine war, namely even with a hundred million forged postal ballots he's lose the mid-term elections and his second job as mechanical hand-shaker to Hunter's public relations firm. Aircraft would end the war by bombing the 40-miles long tank column waiting to surround Kyiv. A no fly zone would give yet another (if more were needed) fig leaf of cover for Putin to contaminate NATO HQ, Washington DC, New York and London with about 0.1% of its nuclear warhead stockpile:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/ukraine-nuclear-war-threat-protects-russia-from-opposition/ 100882002 Nuclear weapons offer protection against meaningful opposition — and Vladimir Putin knows it By former ABC chief foreign correspondent Philip Williams
Ukrainian civilians have been training to use petrol bombs against tanks, but there's a reason the West can't do more to help them.(Reuters: Viacheslav Ratynsky1)
The nuclear effect is being felt in Ukraine
The lesson of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the possession alone of nuclear weapons offers those countries that have them virtual immunity from an effective military response. ... From the beginning, the only credible military organisation big enough to actually help, NATO, has said that sort of military intervention is not going to happen. A bitter Zelenskyy responded: "Today the alliance’s leadership gave a green light to the further bombardment of Ukrainian towns and villages, refusing to establish a no-fly zone." But NATO had already made it clear it would not risk direct conflict with Russia unless one of its member states came under attack. A no-fly zone, if properly enforced, would inevitably lead to direct confrontation with Russia. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken put it bluntly, saying a no-fly zone was not going to happen as "that could lead to a full-fledged war in Europe".
This was precisely why Chamberlain declined to help defend countries bordering Germany in the 30s: he said it was wicked that the UK should concern itself with a war being fought in a "faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing". Instead of producing peace, this allowed aggressive expansion. Was Germany still "isolated" after it had swallowed up Austria, Poland, France, and had forged alliances with Italy and Japan to try to take over the world? Germany had isolated itself behind the Siegfried Line anyhow, just as the USSR isolated itself behind the Iron Curtain and Berlin Wall. When will today's tossers learn?
At 12:34 pm, B nige said...
They won't learn anything useful. The USSR, founed in 1922, was supposedly "isolated" for its entire existence, but was simply too big to collapse until its Afghanistan war failure ended it in 1991. Like Trump's so-called "bankrupt" business empire at around the same time (circa 1992), a really BIG concern may be too big to go bankrupt. This is why sanctions failed and backfired against the Third Reich and the USSR! The logic of this is like this:
Trump (or Hitler, or Stalin, or Putin) borrows billions which he can't pay back. The banks don't bankrupt him, because it is bankrupting themselves by putting a huge number on the "loss" side of the banks' own audited accounts! They would be bankrupting themselves effectively, by causing investors to run scared and cause a "run" on the bank's reserves (withdrawing all the lent money which the bank has flushed down the toilet in loans to failing businesses which used them to buy Las vegas casinos etc that don't perform in a recession). So the banks can't safely make the debtor business or country bankrupt, that would prevent any return of the borrowed money, at all, ever. So a big enough concern is unsinkable. Or if it sinks, it is first towed into shallow water and foundations are added under it, to create the "illusion" of stability and solidity. In credit control, or in law, it is actually counter-productive prosecuting penniless people for money if there is no hope of receiving payment, court order or no court order, because you have to pay legal expenses and they just laugh at you. Criminal prosecutions to lock them away in warm prisons are similarly unproductive in such cases. The "due process" of the law is not so helpful as methods for deterring problems from arising in the first place.
Hitler was effectively bankrupt in 1939. War was not prevented by his economic isolation, but quite the opposite - invasions to seize other people's cash were a necessity to a bankrupt state. Ukraine will be of great use to Russia's economy, the so-called oil, nuclear and bread basket of Europe. In addition, it puts Russian tanks back on NATO's border, ready for invasion to rebuild the USSR, or even to go beyond that for world domination. Remember Germany was a basket case until 1933, which is why Hitler was elected, and he wasn't stopped by Chamberlain's pathetic and inferior "rearmament programme" despite propaganda to the contrary, but by entry into the war of the USA etc.
As for his inner circle persuading Putin to wave a white flag: Hermann Goering begged Hitler not to invade Poland in 1939. Others in the
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German army tried to assassinate Hitler. But he had too many bodyguards, too many informers, and too much power to topple that easily. The idea that sanctions will somehow produce a different effect today than it did in the 1930s is just wishful thinking. Last week the Russian comedy fake news TV channel, RT, was finally taken off air in the UK (lagging behind the EU), depriving the UK of any decent comedy in a half assed effort to punish Putin by so doing. Peter Lavelle's last hilarious broadcast show on that channel had him saying that he didn't care about being isolated in Moscow because he was no fan of "Western wokeism" (a plant grown from a seed planted by Lenin's Comintern, which supported Western disarmament movements, etc). ;-)
At 7:19 pm, @ Hunter Biden said...
Hunter Biden left Ukraine nearly three years ago. Ted Nugent's claims daddy was funded until Putin invaded are inaccurate. Hunter/Joe quit helping Ukraine to save prestige after daddy was condemned by Trump during the election campaign that daddy won. Daddy is right in not providing air cover, after all, Hunter Biden is no longer there, so what's the need for daddy to protect Ukraine now Hunter Biden's on vacation?
At 7:58 pm, @ Witch-Hunter said... https://livableworld.org/meet-the-candidates/joe-biden-a-lifelong-champion-of-nuclear-arms-control/: Joe Biden: A Lifelong Champion of Nuclear Arms Control
For the first time in our 58-year history, the Council for a Livable World broke with precedent and made a Presidential endorsement. The stakes have never been higher, and our issues have never been more important. As the world marks the 75th anniversary of the nuclear age, we are also poised on the edge of a new nuclear arms race. Only one person on the ballot for President can bring us back from the brink and guide us down a path toward eliminating nuclear weapons once and for all. We are proud to have endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden for President in 2020. ... The Council has been proud to support Vice President Biden, who has also thanked us continuously for our ongoing support, sending a letter to then-Executive Director John Isaacs once President Barack Obama was elected. Vice President Biden has the discipline, patience and expertise to repair and rebuild America 8 standing in the world, including its rightful place as a leader in nuclear threat reduction. We are proud to have endorsed him for President.
Hunter Biden served on the board of Burisma Holdings, one of the largest natural gas producers in Ukraine. But what bothers us is that in the 1988 election campaign Joe Biden plagiarized UK left wing CND nuclear disarmament extremist Neil Kinnock speech. In the same year Joe also plagiarized a 1967 Robert Kennedy speech, blaming the aides who wrote the speech for him of that particular example of plagiarism. In 1986, Joe plagiarized a 1976 passage by Hubert Humphrey.
"Biden has made several false or exaggerated claims about his early life: that he had earned three degrees in college, that he attended law school on a full scholarship, that he had graduated in the top half of his class,[161][162] and that he had marched in the civil rights movement.[163] The limited amount of other news about the presidential race amplified these disclosures[164] and on September 23, 1987, Biden withdrew his candidacy, saying it had been overrun by "the exaggerated shadow" of his past mistakes.[165]"
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden#Vice_presidency_(2009%E2%80%932017)
President Trump was concerned about this kindly looking sleepy Joe: there was too much whiff of Uncle Joe Stalinism, always rewriting left-wing history instead of making the right sort of history, peace with prosperity.
At 8:00 pm, ® nige said...
No more about "arms control" liars, please. I think we have all got the point on this blog.
At 7:44 am, B Anonymous said...
If I'm interpreting the k-pi-a units on that Russian civil defense manual as kilopascals as opposed to bar or some other unit, it looks like the Russians had a lot of the same effects exaggerations the US and Britain had, and then some!
Again if I'm interpreting the Cyrillic right,they are showing a building completely fragmented at all overpressures above 8 psi, partially
collapsed at between 5 and 8 psi, and standing but suffering structural damage between 3 and 5 psi. As we have seen in previous posts, these measurements are underestimated by a factor of at least ten for modern construction.
At 2:14 pm, @ Jeremy Corbyn said... Guardian newspaper writer as usual finds a way to make a "comedy" out of a tragedy:
https ://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/i-accidentally-took-my-kids-to-a-jeremy-corbyn-rally-how-could-i-explain- stop-the-war-to-them
I accidentally took my kids to a Jeremy Corbyn rally — how could I explain Stop the War to them? Zoe Williams
Tue 8 Mar 2022 11.00 GMT On Sunday, I had heard that there would be a flashmob orchestra in Trafalgar Square, playing Mussorgsky s Great Gate of Kiev, in solidarity with the people of Ukraine. I went along with two 12-year-olds ... Instead, we found a modest Stop the War rally with not a viola
in sight — just Jeremy Corbyn speaking from a makeshift stage. “He just said: ‘War is bad because it kills people,’” my kid summarised — then, witheringly: “And this is your icon?” ... They say you only discover how well you understand something when you try to explain it to
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someone else; when the someone else is a scathing preteen, you discover it faster. I can lay out the criticism of Stop the War easily enough — that its anti-Americanism is so vehement, it amounts to pro-almost-anything-else, from Assad to Putin. What I couldn t do was explain what that meant for pacifism generally. Had the entire case against war been hollowed out? Is everyone who has ever been on a Stop the War rally discredited? Realistically, given the strength of popular opposition to the Iraq war, isnt that almost all of us? Would I get kicked out of the Labour party for being in Trafalgar Square at all? Well no, obviously: I was looking for Mussorgsky, on my way to an Itsu.
Zoe Williams is a Guardian columnist
At 2:32 pm, & Guardian newspaper article on need to appease Putin as we did Hitler for fear of getting into a war said... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/ukraine-no-fly-zone-nato-russia-war
Ano-fly zone means Nato shooting down Russian jets. We must not do that Daniel Davis Tue 8 Mar 2022 11.18 GMT
.. While it is entirely reasonable and appropriate to impose a serious cost on Russia for their grossly unnecessary war of choice, the west must stop to consider the ramifications of its policies before taking further action. ...
Some of the options under consideration from various quarters include not just sending Kyiv more arms and ammunition, but increasingly sophisticated weapons such as air defense systems, modern fighter jets, and more advanced missile systems. The governments of some European countries, such as Sweden and the UK, have not prevented their citizens and military veterans from going to Ukraine to fight the Russians. But the most dangerous idea being given increasing consideration is the establishment of a no-fly zone over Kyiv.
Advertisement
No less than three retired four-star American generals, all former Nato supreme allied commanders, have given some degree of support to the idea of a no-fly zone in Ukraine. One of them, General Philip Breedlove, proposed a no-fly zone for humanitarian purposes, suggesting it might be tolerable to Moscow if the US says “we are not going to fire on you unless you fire on us”.
Such distinctions are obviously pointless: if we enforce the zone, then by definition we have to shoot down anything that flies into it, whether it attacks our planes or not. And if anyone had any doubts about what Russia’s response would be to one of its jets being destroyed in a no-fly zone, Putin put them to rest on Friday when he said he would consider any attack in Russian aviation to be an attack on his country and respond in kind.
President Zelenskiy has been outspoken in urging Nato to ignore this danger and impose a no-fly zone regardless of Putin’s comments. On Friday, he tried to shame Nato into the move by saying the alliance leaders would be responsible for Ukrainian deaths if they didn’t intervene on his behalf. “All the people who will die from this day will die because of you,” Zelensky said, accusing the alliance of “weakness” and “disunity.”
While Zelensky’s desire is understandable — his nation is under vicious attack — the west must resolutely refuse to be drawn into the war through the Ukrainian leader’s emotional appeal. As bad as it is that millions are suffering in Ukraine, western leaders have obligations, first and foremost, to safeguard their populations. Fighting Russia on behalf of Zelensky would expose the populations of the entire alliance to potential attack by Moscow, which could escalate to nuclear warfare. ...
Daniel L Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the US army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America. Follow him @DanielLDavis1
At 2:43 pm, B Anonymous said...
The lie in the above is the false presumption that the West is safe from invasion of Europe etc and nuclear war with Putin provided we do as Putin tells us. This is the same assumption as Chamberlain made with Hitler: "do as you are told and nothing bad will happen!" Thugs
don't respect people who are easily coerced into abstaining from defending liberty. The combat zones Daniel L Davis was deployed in are now terrorist dictatorships, which proves this.
{t 3:01 pm, B nige said... "... western leaders have obligations, first and foremost, to safeguard their populations. ..." - DL Davis (quoted above)
If Davis means what he writes, Davis should be backing civil defense, no fly zones, and tactical nuclear deterrents for credible nuclear deterrence of war and invasions, to safeguard populations
Refusing to impose a no fly zone for fear of Putin escalating is giving in to nuclear coercion from Putin, in which the nuclear deterrent becomes a tool of dictatorships to enable them to murder kids with impunity. What is wrong here is the implicit (not explicit) assumption that refusing to impose a no fly zone guarantees what Chamberlain called "peace in our time". It doesn't. Putin can conjure up any "excuse" for war, aggression, invasion, murder as in Salisbury UK with Novichok nerge agent, or murder as in a London restaurant with radioactive Po-210 in 2006, etc, etc. This is not "news". We know that making peace deals with someone dishonest and corrupt is the road to war, opening Pandora's Box to the nuclear, chemical or conventional war coercion of the West by fear, while you dance to Putin's tune for fear of being given a hiding if you don't.
Sanctions won't affect Putin the devastating way they are intended, if he simply keeps his oil for use by his own people, or does his trade
with allies in Syria, Belarussia, China, North Korea, et al. The sanctions amount to a new iron curtain, this time imposed by the West. Sanctions would work if Putin loves being friends with the West. He doesn't.
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. At 9:04 pm, & Cold Warrior said...
MIG-29s from Poland being sent to Ukraine to shoot down Russian aircraft, possibly the road to peace, or possibly the road to WWIII (depending on how Mr Putin feels about this escalation):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-ready-place-all-its-mig-29-jets-disposal-us-2022-03-08/
March 8, 2022 7:58 PM GMT Last Updated an hour ago
Poland ready to place all its MIG-29 jets at the disposal of U.S. Reuters
WARSAW, March 8 (Reuters) - Poland is ready to deploy all its MIG-29 jets to Ramstein Air Base in Germany and put them at the disposal of the United States, and urges other NATO members that own planes of that type to do the same, the Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday.
U.S. lawmakers pushed President Joe Biden's administration on Monday to facilitate the transfer of fighter aircraft to Ukraine from Poland and other NATO and Eastern European countries, after a plea on Saturday from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskty.
{t 9:36 pm, © Foreign Policy mag. on nuclear deterrence after the Ukraine invasion said... https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/07/putin-russia-war-ukraine-nuclear-weapons-deterrence/ ARGUMENT Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats plunge the West into a debate it’s not ready for.
By Azriel Bermant, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague, and Wyn Rees, a professor of international security at the University of Nottingham.
MARCH 7, 2022, 4:48 PM
At the beginning of the Ukraine invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his country’s nuclear forces to be placed on high alert and ominously threatened Russia’s adversaries with “consequences you have never seen in history.” By doing so, he added a frightening nuclear dimension to his unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine ... Western political and security officials have been left reeling, both from the attack on a neighboring country and the heightened Russian nuclear alert. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Philip Breedlove has pointed out that that although Putin was known for being a prudent risk-taker, his penchant for taking risks has grown. Some even doubt he is still a rational actor. ...
One reason Putin’s nuclear threats caught the West on the back foot is clearly Western capitals’ inexperience in engaging over the nuclear issue. Expertise that existed during the Cold War on Soviet military thinking was allowed to dissipate as Russia’s threat diminished. As Alexey Arbatov, a former member of the Russian State Duma and deputy chairperson of the State Duma’s Defense Committee, pointed out, “In global politics, particularly when it comes to nuclear issues, words are deeds.” ...
... Even after the Kremlin began a major rearmament program around 2007 and became militarily embroiled in Georgia, Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and Syria, ... the logic of nuclear deterrence, with its subtleties of signaling and risks of inadvertent escalation, has not been exercised ...
In 2007, Russia suspended its participation in the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, signed in 1990 to regulate the size of military forces on the continent. In 2019, the United States announced its withdrawal from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty that prohibited nuclear missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,420 miles). Other nuclear arms control agreements that have been abrogated include the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, from which the United States withdrew in 2002.
... Ina 2014 speech, Putin referred explicitly to Russia’s strategic weapons when he declared that other states “should understand it’s best not to mess with us.” ... Russia has been open in expressing its readiness to escalate from a conventional to a nuclear war. According to the amended Russian military doctrine approved in 2014, “The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.”
That last sentence needs careful thought with regard to the present situation of attempts to cripple the Russian state economy and military with sanctions+MIG29s sent to Ukraine.
At 10:02 pm, B nige said...
Please, no more quotes from articles by snake oil sellers offering readers "arms control" or appeasement agreements and "words as actions" to support Putin's fear mongering propaganda. The problem with all this lawyer-style documentation for peace is that dictators like Putin use doublethink to reverse the established meaning of words, as Orwell warned in his book 1984. So all the written, signed up agreements are useless: Putin calls the democratically elected Government of Ukraine "Nazis". That's classic Orwellian "doublethink" fresh from the pages of the novel 1984. You can't use bits of paper, arms control agreements or non-aggression deals, when the meaning of the words on the papers are suddenly reversed by Putin. He is capable of contriving an excuse to support any action he decides to take, regardless of international laws and conventions. To him, arms control contracts and peace pledges are signs of a soft head. He broke international laws by using Novichok and Po-210 in the UK years ago, by invading Crimea, by shooting down MH17 over Ukraine 8
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years ago, etc. Anyone thinking that easily concocted speeches with fine words, sanctions, or paper laws will force Putin into surrendering in Ukraine is ignoring history. He is a master of lying propaganda and no longer even bothers to make it sound reasonable.
At 8:25 am, & UNIONPAY the Chinese alternative to the SWIFT payment system that the West banned Russia from using in its useless so-called sanctions which are just a provocation of WW3 said...
Hi,
This is UnionPay, the Chinese and now Russian alternative to the SWIFT payment system for international money transfers which the West have banned Russia from using recently.
UnionPay is helped by the "sanctions" of Biden and friends, since UnionPay is run by China, which is a friend of Russia, along with Iran, Syria, Belarus, North Korea, Cuba, and many others.
By cutting Russia off from the West, Russia is helped to see the advantages of UnionPay, the alternative to SWIFT. UnionPay Cards Now Supported by over 27 Million Merchants and 1.1 Million ATMs in the Chinese Mainland. Have a nice day as Biden says.
At 8:33 am, & Doug Casey said... Here’s Why US Threats Against Russian Gold Reserves Mean a Monetary Reset Is Imminent:
After US credit card companies blacklisted anything to do with Russia from their systems, Russian banks seamlessly switched much of their payment processing to China UnionPay.
UnionPay is China’s alternative global payment processing network.
It works just like Visa, MasterCard, or American Express, except it doesn't depend on the US government's good graces. It can operate independently of the US financial system.
China UnionPay is growing rapidly worldwide. Merchants and ATMs in over 140 countries accept it. It’s now one of the largest payment processors in the world.
Further, China, India, Iran, and Turkey, among other countries, announced, or already are, doing business with Russia in their local currencies instead of the US dollar. These countries represent a market of over three billion people that no longer need to use the US dollar
to trade with one another.
When relatively small countries like North Korea, Syria, and Iran are cut off from the dollar, it's one thing. However, it's a different dynamic when the billions of people represented by Russia, China, and their friends stop using the dollar.
As part of their strategy to insulate themselves from US sanctions, Russia has accumulated over 2,300 tonnes—or nearly 74 million troy ounces—of gold. All of that gold—worth over $140 billion as of writing—is held in Russia, which means the US cannot touch it short of a
military invasion.
In addition, the gold mining industry in Russia makes up around 10% of global output or approximately $20 billion per year. Most of that gold finds its way into the Russian government's treasury.
That’s why gold represents a genuine monetary alternative to the US dollar, and Russia has a lot of it. The enormous Asian and Middle Eastern markets are less likely to follow unilateral US sanctions.
At 8:51 am, ® nige said...
The United States GDP of $19.485 trillion is still bigger than China's $12.238 trillion and Russia's $1.578 trillion, combined. However,
"
this could reverse soon, particularly if they successfully take over Europe by using nuclear coercion backed up by a few "peacekeepers". At 3:37 pm, B Anonymous said...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60672085
Russia will soon be unable to pay its debts, according to a leading credit ratings agency.
Fitch Ratings downgraded its view of the country's government debt, warning a default is "imminent".
The move comes amid increasing international sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. ...
The ratings cut - to C from B - is the second time this month Fitch has downgraded its view of Russia's ability to pay its debts.
"This rating action follows our downgrade... on 2 March, and developments since then have, in our view, further undermined Russia's willingness to service government debt," the agency said. ...
The announcement from Fitch came after the US and UK said they will ban Russian oil, as they step up the economic response to the
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invasion of Ukraine. US President Joe Biden said the move targeted "the main artery of Russia's economy". Meanwhile, the European Union said it will end its reliance on Russian gas.
As a major exporter of energy, the measures are aimed to hit Moscow's finances, although experts warn this is also likely to send the price of oil and natural gas higher on global markets.
... It means the country's sovereign debt is now considered to be below investment grade, or in "junk" territory, by three of the world's major ratings companies. ...
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/02/19/a-new-history-of-sanctions-has-unsettling-lessons-for-today
A new history of sanctions has unsettling lessons for today Sometimes they create the problem they are trying to solve
".., At the time much of Europe was under strict economic sanctions, as western powers tried to hold the post-war peace and restrain communism. It was the first time that the “economic weapon”, the title of Nicholas Mulder’s new book, had been used, but by no means the last. By the 2010s a third of the world’s population lived under sanctions. Prominent among the current targets is Russia, which will face further sanctions if it invades Ukraine. Mr Mulder, of Comell University, looks at sanctions over the three decades after the first world war—and reaches unsettling conclusions. ... Blockades were an important part of the toolkit of the naval wars of the 18th century. Sanctions were and are different. Rather than being imposed by one country on another, they often involved groups of countries coming together to punish rogue states. The formation of the League of Nations in 1919-20 made co-ordinated action easier. And rather than being seen as an act of war, sanctions were often supposed to prevent it."
Western Trade Pressure on the Soviet Union, An Interdependence Perspective on Sanctions, Springer, 1991, by David W. Hunte, pp 14-15:
Economic Sanctions: Pre-World War II Through Cold War
"In 1925, British Foreign Secretary Austen Chamberlain stated in the League of Nations: ‘The great advantage of economic sanctions, is ... they do not involve the resort to force.’ The commonly held view was that economic sanctions were the perfect weapon to pressure states into compliance without blood being spilt or lives lost. By 1980, however, Adler-Karlsson had reached a different conclusion: economic sanctions as instruments of foreign policy almost never worked. ... . In both Britain and France, the situation was one of choosing the least undesirable alternative."
The reality is that "sanctions work" but not in the way intended. Sanctions against Japan resulted in the surprise attack on Pearl harbor, thus war, escalating into nuclear war against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Sanctions against Nazi Germany resulted in invasions to seize wealth, and war. Sanctions against Saddam's Iraq ended in a Gulf War. So much for sanctions being a proved alternative to deterrence.
At 2:17 pm, B Anonymous said...
Before anyone says "well, at least sanctions against the USSR made it collapse", it was the ENDING of sanctions against the USSR that helped made it collapse, in combination with nuclear deterrence to prevent it trying to use invasions as a way out of its economic mess, by offering an alternative to its isolation: e.g. the first McDonald's restaurant in MOSCOW, RUSSIA opened on 31 January 1991, and then the USSR ended on 26 December 1991. Quod erat demonstrandum, as Cicero would say! In fact, there was a reduction of sanctions allowing American to do business with Russia from the time of the Reagan administration, which armed to parley, and did business that helped to end sanctions and reduce tensions.
At 10:50 am, @ Anonymous said...
BBC and other "news" media propaganda has created the sanctions escalation and could provoke chemical and nuclear escalations too. At the beginning, they popularised myths that the number of Russian troops around Ukraine was too small for an invasion so Ukraine could repel them, and that if he invaded, Putin would be ousted when Russian TV filmed its soldiers being returned in body bags. This was debunked by Russia deploying portable vehicle mounted crematoriums to prevent any body bags going back to Russia, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/23/russia-deploys-mobile-crematorium-follow-troops-battle/ and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVPTqHZqdz0 In any case, Putin has control over the media in Russia. At every stage, the mainstream media has been delivering fake news to prevent credible deterrence of Russia and to downplay the risks. This is precisely what occurred when Hitler was invading other countries in the 1930s just prior to WWII: the media clubbed together like an old boy's club to claim Hitler was just correcting a few of his borders to rectify injustices from past sanctions on germany after WWI.
At 11:44 am, Q inews.co.uk fascist nuclear weapons effects bullshitter said...
https://inews.co.uk/news/nuclear-weapons-uk-what-happens-respond-russia-attack-putin-explained- 1525069
What happens if the UK is targeted by nuclear weapons? How Britain would respond to an attack by Russia Russia has the world’s largest supply of operational nuclear warheads — at around 4,500
By Alex Finnis
Reporter March 20, 2022 8:14 am
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Russia 8 invasion of Ukraine has not gone to plan, with almost every key city remaining in Ukrainian hands despite weeks of heavy bombardment.
The war, however, shows no signs of stopping, and Vladimir Putin continues to make threats against Western involvement.
Nato s system of collective security means that if Russia were to attack one Nato nation, it would be at war with all 30 — including the UK and US.
However, the Government and military experts have not ruled out President Putin doing just that.
Russia also has the world’s largest supply of operational nuclear warheads — at around 4,500 — making the threat of a nuclear attack the largest since the Cold War. ...
James Acton, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Pace in Washington DC, told BBC News President Putin may resort to nuclear weapons if he continues to be frustrated in Ukraine. ...
A nuclear strike on any UK city would kill everyone within a 1.2-mile radius instantly. [COMPLETE LYING FOR HIGH ALTITUDE BURSTS E.G. THE 300 KT EMP EFFECTS NUCLEAR WEAPON RUSSIA EXPLODED AT 300 KM OVER KAZAKHSTAN NEAR KARAGANDA ON 22 OCTOBER 1962, WHICH KILLED NOBODY PUT OVERLOADED AND SET ON FIRE THE KARAGANDA POWER STATION, POWER TRANSMISSION LINES, TELEPHONE LINES, RADAR STATIONS, HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY, PUBLIC AND MEDIA COMMUNICATIONS, ETC. WITHOUT CAUSING ANY BLAST, THERMAL RADIATION OR NUCLEAR RADIATION CASUALTIES AT GROUND LEVEL]. Anyone exposed within a 6.8-mile radius of the impact would almost certainly suffer third-degree burns, while hundreds of thousands would be likely to die due to radiation fallout. [AGAIN, TOTAL LIES FOR THE RUSSIAN 300 KT BURST AT 300 KM ALTITUDE ON 22 OCTOBER 1962 OVER POPULATED KAZAKHSTAN WHICH INJURED NOBODY! A FACT THE LYING MEDIA COVER UP UNDER PRESSURE FROM WARMONGERING FANATICAL ANTI-NUCLEAR LIARS LIKE BIDEN. ]
The UK Government has no active system in place to provide the public with early warning of a nuclear attack ... no UK cities have had air raid sirens or civil defence systems in place since they were wound up at the end of the Cold War ...
The Government webpage for the alert system states: “The Government and mobile phone networks are testing emergency alerts. You may get an alert if you live in, or travel through, a test area.”
It says it expects the system to launch in “early 2022”. [IF THEY ARE ANYTHING LIKE THE HIROSHIMA AIR RAID SIREN BUREAUCRATS, THEY WILL SET UP THE SYSTEM AND SEND OUT THE WARNING 10 MINUTES TOO LATE, BASED ON THE PATHETIC ADAGE "BETTER LATE THAN NEVER". ]
A Cabinet Office source ... : “There is no public warning system because the Government has dithered on it as no one department wants to pay for it, whether that the Home Office, the Defra or the Cabinet Office. We are totally unprepared.”
The UK’s nuclear advice for citizens is called the Protect and Survive booklet. It was first produced at the height of the Cold War in 1974 and last updated in 1980. Officials have not updated it since, for fears it could cause panic and lead people to panic buy. The UK does have plans to extract the Queen ...
The official, who requested anonymity, said Putin would “strike London for its symbolic impact” ... The defence source added: “In the event that an attack from Putin became more likely then the UK would send all the submarines out into the oceans to protect them.”
[Great, that's OK then. So according to that unnamed so-called expert UK defence source, all the UK needs to do in a nuclear attack from Russia is to launch its Trident SLBM submarines out to sea to protect them, and all will be well. Just watch out for flying pigs, which can drop a mess on you if they have eaten too much to cabbage soup.]
At 12:00 pm, B nige said...
This problem is pseudo journalists relying on fake nuclear effects crap, based on low altitude bursts over the unobstructed Nevada desert, with no modern city concrete buildings to absorb shock, radiation and flying debris energy and thus mitigate the effects like they did in Hiroshina, where people survived near ground zero in such buildings (50% survival at 0.12 mile from ground zero). This propaganda comes from the debunked 1977 edition of Glasstone and Dolan's Effects of Nuclear Weapons, lies codified in "Nukemap" and its users (debunked time and again on this blog, ignored by John Horgan and other media quacks):
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/are-we-too-afraid-of-nuclear-weapons/
Are We Too Afraid of Nuclear Weapons? "Optimists" argue that our fears of nuclear weapons have been "alarmist" and counter-productive.
By John Horgan on July 1, 20157
“Optimists” who emphasize our ability to survive nuclear attacks recall General “Buck” Turgidson, who in the 1964 film Dr. Strangelove assures the U.S. President that the U.S. can survive a Soviet nuclear attack. “I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed,” Turgidson says. “But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops.” Credit: Columbia Pictures, Wikipedia.
I recently attended the annual Dialogue of the Breakthrough Institute, a think tank that challenges conventional green thinking. What appeals to me most about Breakthrough isn’t its specific positions—such as its embrace of nuclear energy—but its optimism. As I’ve argued on this blog, optimism motivates activism better than pessimism--and it is warranted by human progress. ... | mentioned my concerns about war and militarism, noting that nuclear weapons continue to threaten humanity. Brand [Stewart Brand, from Breakthrough Institute] replied that the risks of nuclear war--and even the effects of nuclear detonations--have been exaggerated. If nuclear war breaks out, humanity will bounce back; after all, Hiroshima and Nagasaki are now flourishing. ...
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Brand is not the only person I admire who argues that our fears of nuclear annihilation have been excessive. Political scientist John Mueller makes this claim in his 2009 book Atomic Obsession. Mueller is absolutely right that “nuclear alarmism” has had disastrous consequences. U.S. fear of nuclear war led, perversely, to its arms race with the U.S.S.R., and to the catastrophic U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. But I squirm when Mueller, like Brand, downplays the actual effects of nuclear weapons, estimating that a Hiroshima-size bomb would "blow up" about one percent of New York City, "terrible, of course, but not the same as destruction 100 times greater." ...
To grasp the effects of nuclear weapons, check out NUKEMAP, a website created by nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein, my colleague at Stevens Institute of Technology. NUKEMAP, which calculates the effects of nuclear blasts anywhere in the world, estimates that a Hiroshima-size (15 kiloton) device detonated above Manhattan would kill 263,000 people and injure 512,000. A ground burst would kill fewer people immediately but would generate much more radioactive contamination and fallout.
In the 1950s, the U.S. and Soviet Union developed fusion weapons orders of magnitude more powerful than the fission bombs dropped on Japan. By the early 1960s, the Soviet arsenal included 2.42-megaton, missile-mounted warheads. One detonated above New York today would kill 2,400,000 people and injure about 4 million, according to NUKEMAP.
(t 12:18 pm, B nige said...
[I have a record of a controversy with Dr Wellerstein a few years back, when I felt he dishonestly deleted a comment I politely submitted debunking his diatribe against Feynman's contribution to the Manhattan project - Feynman explains quite clearly in his autobiographical books exactly how he was put in charge by Oppenheimer of the team using IBM mechanical punched card sorters to integrate the equations of shock motion for the implosion systems of several designs of implosion weapons prior to Nagasaki, but Wellerstein denied this and then refused to publish a comment rebutting it - after for years also refusing to publish comments on his fake news nuclear weapons blog about the correct proved effects of nuclear weapons at Hisoshima and Nagasaki and British research debunking American lies on the general effects of nuclear weapons blast, thermal and nuclear radiation in real cities where the skyline shields essentially all the effects beyond a few metres of concrete, even at high yields. Anyway, I then wrote a blog post here on this blog debunking the good Doctor as a fraud and a charlatan. I then received a comment reputedly from him apologising and requesting the post be removed. I did so, but he never corrected his Nukemap. However, it is no good getting mad at particular individuals because this is a very widespread problem which has existed probably forever. Outsiders have a tough job opposing plausible-sounding mainstream crap. If Dr Wellenstein did try to take up the issue that the effects of nuclear weapons have been massively exaggerated for political reasons by media quacks, he would probably be ignored, not lauded, by Scientific American people. This happened with Herman Kahn over 60 years ago in Scientific American, where he was subjected to a hate attack by the lying lawyer James Newman who drafted the 1946 Atomic Energy Act which illegally banned the continuation of UK-USA nuclear weapons collaboration postwar, thus contributing to the expansion of the USSR in the late 1940s. In any case, Dr Wellenstein irrational hate attack on Feynman shows you what sort of a person we have. It's like Putin calling Ukrainians "Nazis". Totally paranoid. I'm not a great fan of Feynman's books myself as it happens - they are full of boring trivia and egotism. But until I am certified and sent to the Gulag by Putin's National Health Service, I'll try to oppose fanatical deceivers and expose their methods, even if the media is obsessed with liars instead.]
At 10:16 pm, @ Anonymous said... @inews.co.uk fascist nuclear weapons effects bullshitter
This particular attack (EMP) seems unlikely. There's tons of scary looking maps online of "smiley face" emp areas superimposed over various countries. What they don't tell you is that the effect within that area is occasional at worst. In every incidence of EMP, the vast bulk of equipment in the effected area was unaffected.
Simulated EMP waveforms directed into modern electronic equipment show a similar story: https://www.ferc. gov/industries/electric/indus-act/reliability/cybersecurity/ferc_meta-r-320.pdf
At 10:54 pm, @ Anonymous said...
@Nige, I might agree with you on the inaccuracy of nukemap, but I've just heard waaaay to many people explain how "duck and cover won't work, you're getting vaporized either way" or "a single 20 megaton burst would destroy an area the size of New York State." To be frank, the calculations used on nukemap are far more realistic than the way nuclear effects are portrayed in movies and the public consciousness.
I'm curious how you propose that Alex Wellerstein "fix" nukemap? I have seen computer corrected models of thermal radiation for a single yield and burst point, but have not seen any good model of overpressure and dynamic pressure vs range after taking into account the energy absorbed by architecture or terrain. Neither one would be easy to put into a user friendly website, where you can enter a location on a map and a yield and within seconds get a rough idea of the extent of the effects.
To fix it, two radically different proposals come to mind. For one, you could scale blast effects as a single radius of "severe damage," starting at 5.8(W’1/3) meters for W=1kt, and scaling up like that until 1000kt, at which point the equation is changed to 58(W* 1/4) meters, with W being yield in megatons. In the same vein, you could scale thermal effects as the (very limited) area where a) air zero is more than 45 degrees above the horizon, and simultaneously b) the theoretical fireball radius intersects with the ground surface.
Alternatively, use the current NUKEMAP scaling equations, (which aren't some "quackery" invented out of nowhere by Wellerstein, but rather based on Glasstone and Dolan's free field effects predictions) and amend them with warnings that they are just rough estimations.
Explain, without giving a solid number, that airblast levels may be decreased by the effect of one building shielding the next.
Explain that up to 10% of people outside or near windows in the thermal radiation area may be burned, but that the number could be much less depending on weather, defensive measures, architecture, and burst height.
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 450/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Explain that urban areas or rough terrain will lead to a moderate decrease in fallout dose rates, and show the attenuation factor for various types of buildings and improvised shelters.
At 4:59 pm, & Putin goes beyond even Hitler said...
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-man-96-who-survived-four-nazi-concentration-camps-killed-during-russian-attack-on-kharkiv- 12572163
Ukraine war: Man, 96, who survived four Nazi concentration camps killed during Russian attack on Kharkiv Boris Romanchenko, who lived through imprisonment at Buchenwald, Peenemunde, Dora and Bergen-Belsen, was killed on Friday in the block of flats where he lived.
Tan Collier News reporter
A 96-year-old who survived being held in four concentration camps during the Second World War has been killed during the Russian attack on Kharkiv.
Boris Romanchenko, who lived through Nazi imprisonment at Buchenwald, Peenemunde, Dora and Bergen-Belsen, was killed on Friday in the block of flats where he lived.
Germany's Buchenwald concentration camp memorial said on Twitter it had been told of the news by his granddaughter.
It added: "Boris Romanchenko worked intensively on the memory of Nazi crimes and was vice-president of the Buchenwald-Dora International Committee.
"In 2012, Boris Romanchenko read the Buchenwald oath 'creating a new world where peace and freedom reign’ during the celebration of the anniversary of the liberation of the Buchenwald concentration camp."
At 10:37 pm, B nige said...
"I'm curious how you propose that Alex Wellerstein "fix" nukemap?"
1. Simply use Lord Penney's exponential attenuation formula from Hiroshima to reduce peak overpressures in cities: exp(-R/3.25) for R being radial distance through a city in kilometres. This reduces peak overpressure by 50% at 2.2 km. Duh. See https://2.bp.blogspot.com/_8adFNycaanI/S025Wc2ZM-I/AAAAAAAABVg/EUa9xkvpW VQ/s1600-h/attenuation. JPG
(Obviously precise effects depend on details, but this is a "baseline" for minimal blast attenuation, in cities with predominantly wood frame buildings.)
2. Simply use George R. Stanbury's formula for predicting the thermal flash shadowing, by caculating the number of exposed upper floors that can geometrically "see" the fireball as a function of range, so that the number of computed flash burns correspond to the number of windows that can see the fireball! Duh.
3. Simply allow nuclear radiation doses in modern cities to be attenuated severely by a factor of close to 100 from the 2011 Los Alamos
report unobstructed desert "free field" data study by intervening the buildings of in New York City, as shown by
https://blogger. googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVVXsEhvDSLfiXCELtpGJ11-cbLXhN Wf9V- 8VPYjJREsNCpulSzjqs0LVMWLJgvqjjF2IbBBmHs_ 5gkhWPnwSVn3SiZxU_GfFNmWmVEVS5g00Mxzvjpl8h0U 1 teD0dFsOinmQzE0JwfdVs - before you include the actual shielding by a building people are in, which is much better for INR than glasstone claims, because
essentially ALL of 100-fold reduced radiation is SCATTERED, energy-degraded and not the highest-energy direct gamma and neutrons
which are attenuated severely on the transit through all the buildings in the radial line from the bomb! Putting in "/100" to the computer formulae is not rocket-science! Duh.
Simple. Nothing in the universe is perfect, but this correction is easy for morons.
{t 10:59 pm, B nige said...
In addition, the blast effects data (relating say overpressure to casualties) is way off in Nukemap. See https://archive.org/details/BritishNuclearTestOperationHurricaneDeclassifiedReportsToWinston/NuclearWeaponsCollateralDamageExaggeratio view=theater for the actual data. The exaggerated numbers used in popular models don't correspond to reality.
This is the same type of left-wing theoretical error as you get in chemical/bio war propaganda: one gram of some nerve agent or bio germs can "theoretically" overkill the entire world's population a trillion times over, so everybody must give up defending themselves from genocide and surrender their weapons, for fear of Putin/Hitler/Stalin/Saddam/ .... et al. In reality, 100% people are not nude standing behind windows facing the blast while wearing roller-skates to ensure they are frictionlessly blown straight out of the 42nd floor by a 3psi blast, and killed by the impact from the gravitational fall to the pavement 420 feet below. Duh.
At 11:05 pm, B nige said...
By the way, EMP effects as mentioned in the blog post are those actually observed on long communications and power lines by the Russian nuclear 300 kt test at 300 km altitude on 22 October 1962, which burned down the karaganda electric power station. Sure, the El EMP will not fry every single microchip in isolated phones, car ignitions, and washing machines, but the other components of the EMP WILL fry the heavy duty long power lines, communications lines (obtic fibre will be crippled by the power lines failing, taking power
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 451/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
from the repeaters needed for optic fibre), and this will shut down the phones by taking away power from the base-station repeaters, from cars by taking away power from petrol pumps or recharging stations (electric cars) and so on. This is the problem. ELF EMP that burns out power stations, the grid and transformers by putting DC into AC systems (a short circuit fire) is actually a worse problem than damage to individual chips, that can't be fixed so easily.
At 6:03 pm, & Kenny Everett said...
Putin might not need to drop a nuke to put the UK and EU power grid, oil, and gas out of operation. It is so fragile it is already failing due to loss of supply of gas and oil from Russia for heating, which results in extra demand on electric power, due to a lack of gas and oil for heating or excessive prices people can't afford. The EU and UK systems are so rotten that they are totally dependent on Russian supplies. Sanctions will destroy the EU and UK, while leaving Russia to use its own plentiful oil, gas, uranium and gold mine resources. Sanctions are not merely "not working well against Russia", they are working very well indeed against Western Europe, an act that in the military would get you arrested on a charge of "self-inflicted injury."
Meanwhile, the New York Times has published a demented article claiming poor Putin invaded Ukraine because he fears the USA is about to invade Russia:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/2 1/briefing/russia-ukraine-schelling-cold-war.html
The Grimmest Dilemma
The Biden administration is facing an old Cold War dilemma: Be weak or risk a world war. By David Leonhardt
March 21, 2022
"If you’re confused about why anybody is talking about an invasion of Russia, don’t feel bad. The Biden administration and its European allies are in no way considering an invasion of Russia. The problem is that Putin does not believe that.
"He knows that the West wishes he were no longer Russia’s leader, and he knows that the U.S. has a recent history of fighting wars of regime change, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Putin puts these two facts together and worries about a military campaign to remove him from power."
If Putin thinks Biden's decision is regime change in Russia, he's even crazier than Hitler.
At 6:10 pm, ® the critic said...
https://thecritic.co.uk/moral-panic-over-ukraine-risks-nuclear-war/ Moral panic over Ukraine risks nuclear war
ARTILLERY ROW
21 March, 2022
By
Andrew Latham
... This fevered ... wave of sanctions will not pressure Putin to reverse course in Ukraine. But history s largest “flash mob” may well have the unintended consequence of crushing the Russian economy — destroying the economic foundations not only of Russian society but of Russian national power as well.
While some might welcome this — the desire to punish the folk-devil is symptomatic of all moral panics — consider the geopolitical consequences of the radical sanctions-induced de-globalization Russia is currently experiencing. Putin sees a future in which Russian national power — already revealed to be less than advertised on the battlefields of Ukraine — is evaporating. ...
Like similarly situated German leaders in 1914 and Japanese ones in 1941, he now faces a choice: does he meekly accept this fate, or does he roll the dice in the hope of changing the dynamic and somehow avoiding that fate. Caveat lector and all that when it comes to historical analogies. But in the mid-twentieth century, German and Japanese leaders chose to roll the dice, presumably believing that the gamble, however reckless, might just pay off, whereas doing nothing would almost certainly result in their destruction.
Both ultimately lost their bets — but not before plunging the world into catastrophic global wars. Is it such a stretch to believe that Putin might also prefer to gamble — perhaps by using a tactical nuke or two ... hoping that the prospect of escalation would force the West to back down and accept a negotiated settlement that he would find acceptable?
And what if, still in the grip of moral panic, the West did not back down, but decided to inflict the ultimate punishment on the Russian folk- devil?
At 6:30 pm, 8 Anonymous said... All the crap above discussion about detailed modification of Glasstone can be replaced by using Glasstone's own stated data on the effects of nuclar weapons on people in modern concrete buildings in Hiroshima: 50% survival at 0.12 mile range for 16 kilotons air burst or
(using cube root yield scaling), 50% survival at 1.2 miles range from a 16 megaton air burst. Very easy. That figure will debunk Nukemap liars.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/2 1/science/russia-nuclear-ukraine.html
The Smaller Bombs That Could Turn Ukraine Into a Nuclear War Zone
March 21, 2022, 2:53 p.m. ETMarch 21, 2022 https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 452/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
March 21, 2022 William J. Broad
... Analysts note that Russian troops have long practiced the transition from conventional to nuclear war, especially as a way to gain the upper hand after battlefield losses. And the military, they add, wielding the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, has explored a variety of escalatory options that Mr. Putin might choose from. ... Mr. Putin might fire a weapon at an uninhabited area instead of at troops, Dr. Kitihn said. In a 2018 study, he laid out a crisis scenario in which Moscow detonated a bomb over a remote part of the North Sea as a way to signal deadlier strikes to come. [That was basically Dr Teller's idea for a "demonstration test" in Tokyo Bay in 1945, but it was rejected as likely to be a blink-and-you've missed it stunt that would waste time and give away the vital "factor of surprise" with a new weapon like the first use of chlorine gas or tanks which gave away the secret and backfired, so the two nuclear bombs were dropped on civilian cities instead to speed up surrender] ... President Biden is traveling to a NATO summit in Brussels this week to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The agenda is expected to include how the alliance will respond if Russia employs chemical, biological, cyber or nuclear weapons. ... Before the Russian army invaded Ukraine, satellite images showed that Moscow had deployed Iskander missile batteries in Belarus and to its east in Russian territory. There’s no public data on whether Russia has armed any of the Iskanders with nuclear warheads. ... In 2010, Mr. Obama, who had long advocated for a “nuclear-free world,” decided to refurbish and improve the NATO weapons ... But after years of funding and manufacturing delays, the refurbished bomb, known as the [nuclear] B61 Model 12, is not expected to be deployed in Europe until next year, Mr. Kristensen said. ... A B61 Model 12 bomb being prepared for acoustic testing at the Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico. The explosive setting on its nuclear warhead can be just 2 percent that of the Hiroshima bomb.Credit...Randy Montoya/Sandia Labs. ... the [nuclar] W76 Model 2, could make it more tempting for a president to order a nuclear strike, [but] the Trump administration argued that the weapon would lower the risk of war by ensuring that Russia would face the threat of proportional counterstrikes. It was deployed in late 2019. ... When he was a candidate for the presidency, Joseph R. Biden Jr. called the less powerful warhead a “bad idea” that would make presidents “more inclined” to use it. But Mr. Kristensen said the Biden administration seemed unlikely to remove the new [W76 mk2] warhead from the nation’s submarines. ... war-fighting plans in general go from warning shots to single strikes to multiple retaliations and that the hardest question is whether there are reliable ways to prevent a conflict from escalating. ... “When do you stop?” he asked of nuclear retaliation. “You can’t just keep turning the other cheek. At some point we'd have to do something.”""
That "something" is likely to be wave a white flag and offer peace at any price, rather than suffer a few bombs.
At 8:10 am, & https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/22/russia-only-to-use-nuclear-weapons-if-existence-threatened said...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/22/russia-only-to-use-nuclear-weapons-if-existence-threatened
News
Russia-Ukraine war Russia could use nuclear weapons if existence threatened: Kremlin Kremlin spokesperson says Russia has a ‘concept of domestic security’ that outlines when nuclear weapons can be used.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov [File: Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters]
“We have a concept of domestic security, and it’s public. You can read all the reasons for nuclear arms to be used,” Peskov said on Tuesday.
“So if it is an existential threat for our country, then it can be used in accordance with our concept.” Putin last month ordered Russia’s nuclear forces to be put on high alert.
In line with the order, Russia’s defence ministry said on February 28 that its nuclear missile forces and northern and Pacific fleets had been placed on enhanced combat duty, the Interfax news agency reported.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on March 14 that “the prospect of nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now back within the realm of possibility”.
Peskov also told CNN that Russia’s war in Ukraine was “going on strictly in accordance with the plans and the purposes that were established beforehand”.
The comments come after United States President Joe Biden warned that Putin was considering using chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine, as he described Moscow’s tactics as increasingly “brutal”.
Last week Russia said it had launched its Kinzhal (Dagger) hypersonic missile that can hit targets anywhere on Earth within an hour.
Putin said in December that Russia was the global leader in hypersonic missiles, whose speed, manoeuvrability and altitude make them difficult to track and intercept.
The Kinzhal missiles are part of an array of weapons unveiled in 2018. Russia first used the hypersonic missile during its military campaign in Syria in 2016.
At 8:21 am, B nige said...
Putin's definitions of words and terms like "existence is threatened" need to be taken within the context of his view that the Ukrainian's are "Nazis" intent on destroying Russia. If anyone in NATO lifts a finger to stop Putin, he can declare his "existence is threatened" and this demands nuclear retaliation in accordance to his laws, just as his legal system can lock up journalists for 15 years for reporting that he "invaded" Ukraine, or is in a "war" (rather than a vague "special military operation"), or just as he can extend his political opponent Alexei Navalny prison term by another 9 years, after Navalny survived Putin's attempt to poison him with Novichok in Germany:
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 453/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-sentences-kremlin-critic-navalny-nine-years-prison-court-2022-03-22/
So, again, please let's keep this blog away from pointless arguments about legalistic propaganda lies. Be concerned that Putin can interpret a sneeze in Washington DC as being an "existence is threatened" justification for nuclear war, if he wants to do so! Laws, legal due process etc., mean nothing when they cannot be enforced for fear of consequences.
At 8:44 am, B nige said...
CORRECTION: the diagram in the blog post extracted from US Defense Nuclear Agency's "Medical effects of nuclear weapons" should state that the cancer radiotherapy drug WR-2721 INCREASES the lethal nuclear radiation dose by a factor of 2.7 in mice.
WR-2721 was developed to help cancer patients survive the radiation doses in radiotherapy, without helping a dense, fast growing cancer tumour to survive. The US Defense Nuclear Agency showed that it can be used by soldiers or civilians to help them to survive a nuclear war. As with all drugs, there are temporary but significant side-effects (low blood pressure, nausea etc) when WR-2721 is given in the massive dose needed to substantially increase the human LDS0 for nuclear radiation from say 450 rads or cGy in bone marrow (600 rads or cGy in air) to way over 1215 rads or cGy) in bone marrow (1620 rads or cGy in air for ~1.25Mev gamma rays from Co60 or direct initial gamma rays from a nuclear weapon). Vitamin E is also effective (by scavenging free radicals) in boosting survival of mice from 5% to 100% after a radiation dose of 650 rads or cGy. Again, the drug doses you need for such useful effects are huge and come with side- effects (Vitamin E at high doses needed to survive lethal radiation increases the risk of bleeding, fatigue, nausea). But the temporary side- effects risk may be preferable to being dead.
At 10:12 am, & Sky fake news liar on nuclear war said...
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-latest-war-putin-russia-skynews-live- 12541713
Ukraine news live: Russian forces ‘likely preparing for large-scale offensive'; ceasefire agreed in separatist region; Kremlin refuses to rule out nuclear weapons use
Zelenskyy offers hope on "confrontational" peace talks; bus drivers and rescue workers are among those captured by Russian forces as they bombard Mariupol; the Kremlin refuses to rule out the use of nuclear weapons; Joe Biden travels to Europe.
World is being ‘held hostage’ by nuclear threat, says expert Dr Jim Muller, from the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, has offered a grim view of the situation the world is in.
He warned there is a "serious danger" Russia will use nuclear weapons against the West, calling for the world to move away nuclear deterrence systems.
"The world needs to depend on law [instead]... or we'll have continued events like this where an individual has the opportunity to destroy civilisation," he told Sky News.
Nuclear powers such as the US, the UK and Russia have armed themselves with nuclear weapons in the hope that it will be a deterrent to other countries as it would result in "mutually assured destruction".
"The whole world is being held hostage now from the nuclear threat," he said.
[Actually these loons who are not experts and actually know nothing about nuclear weapons apart from populist propaganda lies in the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, CAUSED the problem by insisting Ukraine would be safe from war and from nuclear war risks if it DISARMED ITS EXISTING NUCLEAR DETERRENT 30 years ago, which left it VULNERABLE TO CONVENTIONAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR WAR, not safe from them!]
At 10:14 am, B nige said...
Sky news is almost as bad as the BBC. They all REFUSE to publish any facts about nuclear weapons relevant to Ukraine, only fake news to prevent sensible deterrence and civil defence.
At 10:24 am, @ nige said...
Again, just to point out where the lie is here, Dr Jim Muller's lie is that war can be prevented by disarmament and towards international law, as Baldwin Chamberlain believed: Laws, legal due process etc., mean nothing when they cannot be enforced for fear of consequences. You can't have laws that work without a credible deterrent to enforce them, and conventional weapons were simply not a credible deterrent in 1914, 1939 or in any other war! Duh. Duh. Duh...
At 10:52 am, @ Jaw Jaw not War War words-as-actions appeaser said...
All wars end with the dictator signing a peace deal, e.g. Hitler signed a peace deal in 1945, so my pacifist suggestion is that we omit the weapons and and war and concentration camps where Anne Frank died and simply sign peace deals with dictators at the beginning. If we surrender from day 1, we don't need nuclear deterrence, war, or even to worry what we are going to do with our lives. The dictators will decide everything, saving mental effort and causing a world at peace. Even if they kill everyone by starvation in belsen concentration camp, this will result in peace. If the dictators are allowed to murder millions by genocide, war will be prevented and pacifist disarmament will be possible. The pacifists can then claim to have helped humanity to prevent conflict. Vote for a peaceful surrender to terrorism. Jaw jaw, not war war as doubletalker Churchill, the man whose pathetically ineffective and ridiculed calls for deterrence failed in both 1914 and 1939, used to say.
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 454/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. At 10:53 am, B nige said...
Hitler didn't actually sign a peace deal in 1945, but on 30 September 1938 (it was a lie).
4t 11:18 am, & White Flags do not stop invasions but encourage dictators said...
The pacifist claim that all wars end with peace deals is more fake news. The Korean War in 1953 ended with no formal peace deal. Hitler committed suicide rather than sign a peace deal. The Vietnam War peace deal which was signed was signed in bad faith by the North Korean Vietcong who contravened it by invading the South, contrary to the agreed terms. The peace deal signed after WWI provoked the Nazis into starting WWII. Peace deals after wars are of no value unless you are ready to go back to war to enforce them. Which is contrary to peaceniks.
At 3:32 pm, & metro newspaper self contradiction proving fake news on same day said...
"Russia still hasn’t ruled out nuking Ukraine to get country to surrender" - by Faye Brown, Wednesday 23 Mar 2022 7:05 am, METRO, https://metro.co.uk/2022/03/23/ukraine-war-putins-top-spokesman-refuses-to-rule-out-russia-using-nuclear-weapons- 16324818/
"Ukraine war ‘will end in a month and Russia “definitely” won’t go nuclear’" - by Harrison Jones, Wednesday 23 Mar 2022 11:03 am, METRO, https://metro.co.uk/2022/03/23/zelensky-advisor-russia-wont-go-nuclear-and-war-will-end-next-month- 16326834/
The first "story" is from Russia (which has nuclear weapons), the second "story" is from Ukraine (which DOESN'T have nuclear weapons). Take your pick as to which, if either, is true.
{t 6:39 pm, B nige said...
metro,
There are allegations circulating that Mr Putin, 69, may be ill: recent inflamed/puffy face may indicate steroids for treatment for bowel cancer, like Prime Minister Chamberlain in his negotiations with Hitler - Chamberlain was only diagnosed too late in July 1940 but as jorunalist Chapman Pincher explains in his book about the disaster, it was then terminal and Chamberlain had been having pain since 1938 which - Pincher claims - led to his misjudgement of Hitler at the Munich Conference in September that year. Pincher adds that a similarly ill Prime Minister two decades later, Anthony Eden in 1956, was suffering from bile leaking into his blood stream due to a botched operation in 1953 for gallstones (the surgeon ruptured his bile duct). This led to constant misery and Pincher claims it may have led to the national tragedy of the Suez Crisis in 1956, when Eden invaded Egypt and was opposed by Uncle Sam. So the idea that Mr Putin may be quite ill, while under pressure of sanctions and an escalating war, while having the biggest nuclear weapons stockpile on the planet, does not necessarily bode well (re: T.S. Elliot's 1925 poem, The Hollow Men):
https://www.menshealth.com/uk/health/a39257659/russian-president-vladimir-putin-accused-of-taking-steroids/
Russian President Vladimir Putin Accused of Taking Steroids That Cause Aggressiveness in Bodybuilders Former foreign secretary and doctor Lord David Owen has said taking steroids could be a reason for Putin's aggression
BY MEN'S HEALTH 28/02/2022
Former foreign secretary and doctor Lord David Owen has accused Russian president Vladimir Putin of taking steroids and said his aggression could be caused by them.
Speaking to Times Radio, Owen said that Putin's changing face shape was a sign that the Russian dictator has been taking steroids, which, he says, are known to cause "aggressiveness" in bodybuilders.
"Look at his face, see how that has changed — he now has an oval face," said Owen. "People who said, 'oh, it's plastic surgery or Botox,' I don't believe that at all."
"He's on either anabolic steroids as a bodybuilder — and he's very proud of his muscles and strips to the waist and everything like that — or he's on corticosteroids. If you're on these drugs, this gives you this face. ...
"And we ought to fess up to it, that carries with it, particularly anabolic steroids, bodybuilders, aggressiveness that comes through." https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/bloated-putin-suffering-steroid-treatment-26454290 ‘Bloated' Putin may be suffering from steroid treatment for cancer, spies claim
By Douglas Patient 02:20, 13 Mar 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin's “bloated” appearance could be the side effect of him taking steroids for treatment for cancer, spies have claimed.
Senior figures from Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States believe there is a physiological
explanation for his invasion of Ukraine, it is reported. ... Sources also cite the dictator’s decision to physically isolate himself from guests as the use of drugs is suppressing his immune system.
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 455/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Vladimir Putin's 'bloated' appearance could be the side effect of him taking steroids for treatment for cancer, spies have claimed ( Image: Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) Emmanuel Macron was forced to sit at the other end ofa 13ft table during a meeting with the Russian president.
And foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was also seated at the other end of a particularly long table. At 2:47 pm, @ Anonymous said...
Putin is just missing his beautiful gymnast friend, Alina Kabaeva. She works for Putin's National Media Group, in neutral Switzerland, with their 3 kids, which in a nuclear war is healthier than Putin's Fiihrerbunker under the Kremlin in Moscow, since the Swiss have the best civil defense shelters on the planet equipped with air filters for fallout and chemical war. Once Putin has conquered all of Europe, including Switzerland, they will be reunited.
At 6:40 pm, @ Anonymous said...
Nigel, I don't buy Dr Lord Owen's quack diagnosis of Putin's bowel cancer without any x-rays, endoscope examination, tissue sample cell tests, etc. here are a few questions for you.
Did Putin have bowel cancer 16 years ago in 2006 when he murdered Alexander Valterovich Litvinenko in London using polonium 210? Did Putin have bowel cancer when he shot down MH17 over Ukraine killing 298 people on 17 July 2014? Did Putin have bowel cancer when he invaded Crimea 8 years ago?
Did Putin have bowel cancer when he used nerve agent Novichok to murder an innocent lady in Salisbury 4 years ago?
At 6:50 pm, B nige said...
OK. Keep your hair on. You haven't had a lethal dose of Putin's fallout (yet). The point is, Putin's face is swollen and it may indicate costeroids, either for medical reasons ot to try to keep in tip top physical shape at 69. They can cause aggression. The recent invasion of Ukraine is way beyond the other murders you list. The death toll over the first month of the invasion has exceeded the equivalent of an MH17 every single day of the war. But what I'm concerned about more than anything is where this will end. Remember that Hitler was deterred from dropping 12,000 tons of Nazi tabun nerve gas on the UK by the fact every single person in the UK had been issued gas masks for vapours and instructed to keep under cover against liquid droplet agents. This was again partly in the 1950s when over 50 million C7 postwar gas masks with pneumatic seals against nerve agents were made and stored for a crisis, but never issued in the UK. Today, we have no civil defence thanks to the disarmament thugs who, when they can't get every last nuclear deterrent bomb dismantled, rave absurdly against civil defence!
"The technique he [Hitler at Munich 1938, when he had a bigger stockpile of bombs than the UK] used is such an obvious prototype for a
future aggressor armed with H-bombs that it is of extreme value to all who are concerned with the problem of maintaining a peaceful and secure world to go over the story in some detail." - herman kahn, on thermonuclear war, princeton university press, 1960, page 403.
At 8:18 pm, B Anonymous said... NATO summit on 24 March 2021:
Reporter: "Mr President Biden, Sir, may I ask what you will do if Mr Putin escalates the Ukraine invasion by using chemical or nuclear weapons?"
Mr President: "We will respond appropriately, depending on the exact situation." More useless sanctions to get Russia to use its own gas and oil and freeze the Germans? Wave a white flag? Fly to Moscow to sign a peace deal, promising to disarm the West entirely of nuclear weapons (like Ukraine was disarmed of its nuclear deterrent in the 1990s) in return
for peace at any price? Bomb Moscow, starting WWIII? Supply more arms to Ukraine to prolong the conflict and give Putin the excuse to escalate again?
At 9:29 pm, & NATO white flag flier said... https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-war-nato-warns-russia-that-a-nuclear-war-cannot-be-won- 12573489 Ukraine war: NATO warns Russia that a nuclear war 'cannot be won' Questioned by Sky's Mark Stone about how NATO could defend against a nuclear attack, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said such a war could not be won, and should not be fought. He said the war in Ukraine must be prevented from escalating and becoming 'more
deadly’.
Wednesday 23 March 2022 15:54, UK
The problem for Mr Stolenberg is that he doesn't have the nuclear weapons Putin has, since the entire Western nuclear stockpile is smaller than Russia's, thanks to disarmament policies: a precise repeat of the situation of 1935-9 when the Nazis were allowed to have more weapons than the allies in an effort "not to provoke another war in Europe." It didn't work. Nope. It failed. Disarmament by democracies
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to remove the threat from dictatorships always provokes the dictatorships to escalate crises into wars of aggression. Then the disarmament thugs try to censor out the Herman Kahn's of this world who want to learn the credible deterrence lessons of the past, so those lessons are never learned, and the 1960s nuclear superiority was replaced first by parity, then by Russian nuclear domination and intimidation of the West into fearing even to give a no-fly-zone to an invaded democracy, for fear of Putin's nuclear superiority in a potential WWII.
At 9:55 pm, ® nige said...
NATO's Stolenberg just means he can't win WWII. As Herman Kahn explained, Russia was the only country to come out of WWII BETTER OFF than it went into it: it gained half of Europe by 1949! Furthermore, Russia went into the war jointly with the Nazis when it jointly invaded Poland with them in September 1939, under the terms of the secret annex to the "Non-Aggression Pact" between Germany and Russia of 1939. This is usually passed off by fascist National Socialists as being due to the west not wanting to make a peace pact with Stalin due to the 40 million he murdered in Ukraine in the 1930s farming collectivization Communist programme: Stalin couldn't make a pact with the democracies so instead he made it with his fellow dictators, the Nazis.
Just to repeat Herman Kahn's point. The Russian people didn't want to invade Poland in 1939. The Russian people didn't want to invade half of Europe after the war. The Russian people didn't want dictatorship. They didn't want world war. But they had to put up with Stalin or be shot or sent to the Gulag to starve or freeze or mine salt in Siberia. This is the situation regarding hopes that somehow a dictator will realise the error of his ways and resign peacefully.
Russia recovered from WWII economically in 1951, 6 years after the war, when London was still in ruins. My dad, then in the Civil Defence Corps, was living in South Norwood, London, working for a London firm rebuilding the flattened London housing, while studying architecture at college. In the late 1970s, driving to Liverpool Street station in the East End of London, he showed my vast areas of the East End of London that were still in ruins from WWII bombing. The Docklands of London were still in ruins from Hitler's bombs until Thatcher started regeneration in the 1980s! Britain was basically bankrupt from WWII for 40 years, having to apply for an IMF bailout in 1976. The problem has only been wallpapered over using cashflow turnover GDP to cover up the ever increasing national debt since then:
Britain has currently twice the GDP of Russia, but Britain has TEN times the national debt of Russia! Russia's GDP to debt ratio, a measure of survival in war, is 5, compared to | for Britain and 1.3 for the USA. Russia is therefore far more resilient when bombs fall on cities in WWIII. Dollar bills and pound notes won't be worth the paper they are printed on if the cashflow turnover GDP of the West is destroyed by nuclear EMP.
At 6:53 am, @ Anonymous said...
Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, hero of the Nazis for rearming britain slower than them, was aged 69 at the Munich Conference on 30 September 1938. (He was born on 18 March 1869.)
President Biden is now 79 years old, ten years older than the Chamberlain thug who allowed Hitler to start WWII by his policy of, as John F. Kennedy puts it in "Why England Slept", deliberately rearming Britains slower than Germany to avoid giving offense to Nazis.
At 7:09 am, ® nige said...
Robert Harris and actor Jeremy Irons portray Chamberlain as a hero in the film Munich, which is exactly the opposite of what is needed; it's the disarmament hype yet again. The real story is that Chamberlain was a Nazi, as proved by declassified British Government documents which we revealed in previous posts years ago. Harris hasn't been reading this blog, it seems, but ignorantia non excusat for propaganda - people should check their facts.
What is needed in a film about Munich is FIRSTY the exaggerations of weapons effects in the 1920s and 1930s, like the gas mask controversy and the cheap shelter controversy: the disarmament thugs tried to ban all civil defence in Britain as worthless, despite it being proven highly effective in WWI (which is why gas failed due to cheap gas masks and why shelling failed due to cheap trenches).
If these simple countermeasures had been fake, WWI would have been over, as predicted, by Christmas 1914, instead of lasting four years.
Then you get into the scientific research on civil defence which proved gas masks, simple indoor improvised shelters etc, and began in the 1920s but was kept secret from Joe Public so that the Nazi thugs were able to disarm Britain using lies about no defence being possible! This continues to this day: the American and British thugs STILL try to keep the hard evidence under wraps instead of actively debunking weapons effects delusions that are the bread-and-butter basis for all disarmament warmongering efforts by fascist thugs masquerading as Baldwin's or Chamberlain's.
SECONDLY, disarmament fanatic Lord Londonderry, Secretary of State for Air, on 22 October 1934 attacked calls for “‘a vast armament of aeroplanes” in a speech to the Mechanics Institute in Darling. Winston Churchill responded in the Daily Express on 1 November 1934:
“Germany is arming secretly, illegally and rapidly. A reign of terror exists in Germany to keep secret the feverish and terrible preparations they are making.”
But the disarmers simply dismissed him as scare mongering for political ends (warmongering). W. E. Johns pointed out in his “Popular Flying” Editorial, December 1935:
“However appalling war may be, and however remote the chance of success, a nation that can lay any claim to the title will always fight rather than suffer an intolerable peace. ... There seems to be only one thing that we can do, and that is pick up the weapons we so foolishly
laid aside when we went to Geneva...”
See: https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2014/05/debunking-hardened-dogma-of-exaggerated.html
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. At 7:11 am, B nige said... https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2014/05/debunking-hardened-dogma-of-exaggerated.html
Wednesday, May 21, 2014 Debunking the hardened dogma of exaggerated nuclear weapons effects and "ridiculed" cheap civil defence
The most vital job of civil defense in the first place is to boost war deterrence to PREVENT war. If you exaggerate the effects of war so much that it is totally incredible, you might as well disarm and wave a white flag: an incredible weapon is no deterrent. Damage area and casualty equivalent megatons (“equivalent megatonnage,” EMT) are proportional the product the the number of bombs and the 2/3 power of the yield of each bomb. 2.2 megatons distributed in 22 million conventional 10-7 megaton bombs is therefore equivalent to 22,000,000(10-7)2/3 = 474 one megaton blast bombs, or 948 nuclear bombs each with a blast yield of 1 megaton (blast being 50% of the total energy of a nuclear explosion). In other words, even a thousand megatons in a nuclear war would not be on a different scale to 2.2 megatons of highly effective, dispersed small bombs in WWII, and simple shelters could eliminate or drastically reduce casualty rates as in WWII where pre-war casualty predictions were grossly exaggerated. ...
After the Disarmament Conference collapsed as he predicted, the Government quangos inevitably attempted to place the blame not on Hitler but on those who wanted to deter Hitler, people like editor W. E. Johns:
““.. the Royal Commission on the Private Manufacture of, and Trading in, Arms ... in its report ... has quoted certain statements that have been made on this page and endowed them with a meaning far from the one intended. ... I have supported armaments — or, rather, the policy of rearmament - ... because it is my firm conviction that only by a fair balance of power can peace be maintained. ... The Disarmament Conference failed ... The reason was that England had lost her talking point. With 3,000 more aeroplanes in the nation’s hangars our ‘friends’ would have been more genuine in their anxiety to talk of peace. Surely it must be quite clear to anyone who has watched the march of events since 1918 that England, inadequately armed, was wasting her time by even attending conferences of any sort, where the men who have the guns have ever called the tune.
“Following the line of argument of the disarmament theorists, we might as well disband the police force in the hope of ending crime.”
- W.E. Johns, “On the folly of war,” Popular Flying editorial, May 1936. ...
At 7:22 am, ® nige said...
“When Mr Chamberlain first stepped into an aeroplane bound for Germany we were on the very brink of war. ... In plain, unvarnished fact, what really happened was this. Civilization was suddenly confronted by a new menace — an international gangster in a big way. That’s all Hitler really is. Just an arch-gangster; a thug who points a machine gun at a crowd of men, women and children ...”
- W.E. Johns, Flying, 29 October 1938.
“The danger was there for all to see. Most people saw it. Unfortunately, those whose business it was to take the necessary precautions did not see it. Or if they did they buried their heads, ostrich-like, in the sands of their commendable but out-of-date belief in British immunity from catastrophe. ... Parity is not enough. If Germany has 5,000 bombers, then we must have 10,000. For every blow that Hitler can strike, we must be able to strike two in return. This is the only argument dictators understand.”
- W.E. Johns, editor, “On Peace in Our Time,” Popular Flying, editorial, December 1938.
"Hero" Chamberlain then quietly used coercion on Johns' publisher to get him fired, to try to cover up his mistakes by putting truthful critics out of a job. What a £ucking hero.
By contrast, Chamberlain wanted to pose NO credible threat to Hitler, for fear of provoking war, just like Biden when he campaigned for nuclear parity or relative inferiority to dictators (rather than a vast tactical nuclear stockpile superiority that safely kept the peace in the Kennedy era and made Khrushchev blink first over the Berlin Crisis): President John F. Kennedy's book "Why England Slept" proves that from 1935 Hitler was spending over THREE times as much on rearmament than Britain.
Sir John Slessor, Marshall of the RAF, proves we were losing the arms race, not "buying time" by appeasement, on page 161 of in his 1957 autobiography, The Central Blue (Praeger, New York):
"Every undergraduate knows that a sound economic situation is an essential basis of military strength; but ... the Government continued to rule early in 1938 that the three fighting Services between them should not be allowed to spend more than about £1600 millions over the five years 1937 to 1941 - an average of little over £300 millions a year for all three Services; and this eighteen months after the Prime Minister [Neville Chamberlain], as Chancellor of the Exchequer, had confirmed that he knew the Germans were spending £1000 millions a year on warlike preparations, a figure which by now, of course, was being greatly exceeded."
At 7:32 am, 8 nige said...
Chamberlain's British Ambassador to Berlin, Sir Neville Henderson, proves the insanity of his and Chamberlain's lies in the following telegram to Chamberlain in February 1939 which was kept SECRET for a decade and is STILL IGNORED BY FASCIST-BIASED HISTORIANS:
“Tf we handle Hitler right, my belief is that he will become gradually more pacific. ... | would feel confident if it were not for ... alarmists by profession and Jews.”
- Sir Neville Henderson, British Ambassador to Berlin, telegram to the British Foreign Secretary, February 1939 (H.M.S.O., Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, London, 1949, Third Series, IV, p. 593).
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Note the racism! These were not mere Nazi collaborators but full fledged Nazi liar thugs who would pressurise publishers to fire editors of journals for disagreeing with them!
No democracy here, mate.
That's Putin's Russia media coercion in 1930s England, albeit done in a more sinister, underhand way than openly passing a law banning freedom of the press.
- http://glasstone.blogspot.com/2010/03/lifeboat-analogy-to-civil-defence. html At 9:24 am, & Independent said...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-jk-rowling-cancel-culture-b2043978 html
News WorldEurope Vladimir Putin defends JK Rowling in speech condemning ‘cancel culture’ in the west Russian president says west ‘cancelled’ British author ‘because she didn’t satisfy demands of gender rights’
Chiara Giordano 14 hours ago
Vladimir Putin has defended JK Rowling in a speech condemning “cancel culture” in the west.
The Russian president claimed the west was trying to cancel Russian culture ...
The Western media is taking Putin's speech above as an external debate with the harry potter author about whether Russia should suffer opprobrium for being austistic, nationalist, having principles that differ from liberal elite editors who hate credible nuclear deterrence and civil defense, yet don't like putin's russia.
But it's internal news for Russia to see he can build up sufficient consensus at home to justify using nuclear weapons, chemical weapons like Novichok, or hypersonic bombs etc to "cancel Western culture", or in what he terms a "special operation" to de-Nazify the West and we will call ww3.
At 9:28 am, B Anonymous said...
If he does use nuclear weapons to "cancel cuture" let's hope he frees the West from the tyranny of the fake news spreading media outlets, basically the whole damn lot, which are based in cities and spend billions on gender equality but refuse water to your dad in hospital
At 9:38 am, B nige said...
Please don't refer to that - keep comments to credible nuclear deterrence if possible. While dictators sometimes point out that there are problems with freedom in the west (tyranny of fashionable opinion censoring any viewpoint they don't like by calling it "offensive" even though the person they are censoring feels the same way about them, that their views are "offensive", so it's sheer hypocrisy and thuggery not objective censorship that considers both sides fairly before deciding), I'm still hoping NATO will come to its senses and rearm to deter WWIII instead of stupidly leaving Putin with more nuclear weapons than anyone else, to intimidate like Hitler and all that lunacy. The problem is, as the comments above show, the media is dominated by liars just as it was in the 1930s, who encouraged war while pretending to be doing the opposite. Fighting a conventional war using Ukraine as proxy, while having an inferior nuclear stockpile, is hardly credible nuclear deterrence. We need credible nuclear deterrence to end war and then end sanctions.
At 10:04 am, @ deeyuxa nezxozo nocedenua said...
Bam 6yzeT sryume B PO. Pycckuii a3bIK CBA3HBIM. PerMOHaJIBHbIX aKI[CHTOB HeT. Bce ropopaT Ha OJHOM A3bIKe H MOHMMAaroT pyr Apyra. Y Hac HeT perHOHAaJIbHBIX OTCJICHHM, re HEKOTOPbIe JIONM TOBOpAT Ha CBOeM JMasIekTe. Pycckaa KyIbTypa, KOTOpyro 3amay xoTes OBI oTMeHHTS, Kak J[«. K. Poymmur, Bocxogut k Iletpy Benuxomy. A Tellepb H3BHHUTe MeHA Ha MHHYyTKy. Bam TakoxKe NOHpaBHTca Halla 3ddekTHBHad CHCTeMa TpaxkKTaHCkoli OOOPOHH! AA 3alMTHI JroOWel OT B3pbIBa HM Apyrux MOceACTBUM 3anaqHOro aqepHoro opyxus. Mpr OTCTPOMM Ball Toposa B PyCCKOM CTHJe Mocie cielonepaluu Mo 3anquTe Poccuu OT OTMeCHBI KYJIBTYPHI.
At 5:24 pm, B Anonymous said... Regarding "equivalent megatonnage" you yourself have discussed how 11 psi is required for "grade A" damage to a brick building at 20
kt, 200 kt, 2Mt, etc, but all of 30 psi was required for | ton V1 and V2 attacks in the second world war. The damage criterion is probably much higher for the 100kg you are discussing here.
For blast loading to damage a target, it has to a) have a high enough peak force to overcome the structural strength of the target and b) have enough impulse to overcome the inertia and elasticity of said target.
To quote ESTIMATION OF THE PERSONNEL HAZARDS FROM A MULTI-TON BLAST IN A CONIFEROUS FOREST (AD0666822)
"...damage to trees can probably be related to partial dynamic-
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pressure impulse; i.e., the impulse of the dynamic-pressure wave up to a critical time corresponding approximately to one-fourth the natural periods of the trees."
For overpressure sensitive targets (that is, as opposed to dynamic sensitive) there's a third criteria the blast would have to meet: it has to have high enough peak overpressure to deliver a destructive impulse before air blast diffracts and equalizes inside and all around the target.
If, however, the pressure falls before it has equalized, then it needs a higher pressure. It has to accelerate heavy building components quickly enough that they cannot be stopped by the building's elasticity, and instead suffer plastic deformation or fracture.
For a minimum pressure needed for any given type of blast damage, no matter how long the duration. But if the duration is shortened sufficiently, then at some point that minimum overpressure (11 psi in the case of a brick house) will fail to have the same effect.
At 5:53 pm, B Anonymous said...
On top of the elastictinertial response of structures, there's also the issue of the response of a target to localized blast impact vs blast from a distant source, that effects the entire target structure nearly simultaneously.
A strong leaf blower produces a few psi dynamic pressure at close range, but has no chance of knocking down a person or injuring skin regardless of how long it is applied. A 2 psi dynamic pressure air blast from a nuclear burst, on the other hand, would have a displacing effect on the person as a whole, unless they were shielded by buildings or laid on the ground preemptively to protect themselves before the shock front reached them.
A push pin won't penetrate a steel beam even if the force at its tip is 100Newtons per square millimeter. However, if that same beam were a structural member in the lower floor of a large building, and a few tens of kt nuclear device were smuggled onto that floor, or a few hundred kt device were dropped in the alleyway right outside it, that same force per unit area would accumulate over the length of the beam and cause it to flex or worse, break at its attachment points. Even though the steel material itself could survive 100MPa of pressure, the structure as a whole could collapse due to this distribution of force to "weak links" in the construction.
This is particularly relevant to your A=N(k)(W%2/3)comparison of 3.7 kg artillery rounds during WW1 with hypothetical nuclear scenarios.
Of course, some of these scaling effects are also offset by the fact that a large, distant blast would be attenuated as it travels through
buildings, trees, etc closer to the center. But it's good to take both into account, and not use mathematical assumptions that are easily proven false as the basis for claims when other proven facts would work just as well.
At 9:50 pm, & The Fourth Way said... Newsweek lists 4 reasons Putin can use to justify nuclear war due to Ukraine, the fourth involves conventional war only: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-lists-justifications-use-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-war-drags- 1692142
Russia Lists Justifications to Use Nuclear Weapons as Ukraine War Drags On BY NATALIE COLAROSSI ON 3/26/22 AT 10:14 AM EDT
"Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president, who now serves as deputy chairman of the country's security council, outlined four ways that Russia could be "entitled to" use its nuclear arsenal—even against a nation that is only using conventional weapons. "... he fourth case is when an act of aggression is committed against Russia and its allies, which jeopardized the existence of the country itself, even without the use of nuclear weapons, that is, with the use of conventional weapons." He then added that there should be no reason to doubt that Russia would be "ready to give a worthy response to any infringement on our country, or on its independence." "
Hours later, President Biden publically called for regime change in Russia: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/26/politics/biden-warsaw-saturday/index. html
Biden says Putin 'cannot remain in power'
Kevin Liptak-Profile-ImageMaegan Vazquez
By Kevin Liptak and Maegan Vazquez, CNN
Updated 1940 GMT (0340 HKT) March 26, 2022
Warsaw, Poland (CNN)President Joe Biden declared forcefully Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin should no longer remain in power, an unabashed challenge that came at the very end of a swing through Europe meant to reinforce Western unity.
"For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power," Biden announced at the conclusion of a capstone address delivered in the cold outside the Royal Castle in Warsaw.
At 9:58 pm, 8 Anonymous said...
Biden was speaking his own views, not those of US Government (God knows what they are).
At 6:17 am, @ Anonymous said...
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Here's a video of a block wall being subjected to low yield, short duration airblast. Depending on the precise airblast yield of the HE involved, the peak overpressure is equivalent to what you'd see between 200 and 300 ft from a | kiloton burst. Compare this with the damage criteria seen for a 1 ton V2,or for nuclear devices producing multiple kilotons.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uGmxUMkz9Q¢
Here is a video of a room, reinforced against blast effects, that survived 60 psi overpressure. https://m.youtube.com/watch? v=0kKmvzjshGe
Note that in the slow motion footage, it takes two "seconds" for the shock front to arrive and then an additional 3 to 5 for the building components to reach peak deflection.
At 11:01 am, @ Russian nuclear war launch codes go missing said...
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/world-news/2022/03/26/623f1 6a0e2 704e94408b45a0.html
World News Two of the three people with access to Russian nuclear codes are missing
Sergei Shoigu and Valeri Gerasimov haven't responded to calls from the Pentagon 26/03/2022 - 08:50 CDT
Concern in the United States of a Russian nuclear attack in Ukraine have reached a new level, with it becoming clear that two of the three people with access to the nation's nuclear codes are missing.
Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, remains unaccounted for, with some reports suggesting that he has been missing since March HT,
Furthermore, in trying to contact Shoigu, the Pentagon also attempted to speak to Valeri Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian general staff, who also has access to the codes, yet he didn't answer either.
Nothing has been heard from either individual for weeks, although Vladimir Putin's government dismissed any claims of mystery, suggesting that Shoigu merely had health problems, among other concerns.
Concern in the USA This is a disconcertingly complex situation, especially with some of the most important members of the United States' defence structure failing to get into contact with their Russian counterparts.
The line of communication established between the Pentagon and main Russian leaders had been open continuously since the end of the Cold War, but that is not the case at this moment.
Named the 'red telephone' this system of conversation has always worked and given good results, however CNN revealed that neither Shoigu nor Gerasimov have spoken to the US since February.
The Russian
https://www.airforcemag.com/article/0298russian/
Security of the Russian Nukes Feb. 1, 1998
Gen. Eugene E. Habiger, USAF, is commander in chief of US Strategic Command, Offutt AFB, Neb., which comprises the nation’s nuclear deterrent forces. ...
“For a period of five days last week, the Russians showed me ... a nuclear weapons storage area and to see how they keep their nuclear weapons secure and safe.” ...
Questions Asked and Answered
“On Friday, two weeks ago [Oct. 24], that’s exactly what I did. I went to a nuclear weapons storage site at ... [an] SS-24 missile base at Kostroma, which is a little over 300 kilometers northeast of Moscow. ...
“T went into a nuclear weapons storage bunker and saw an operational nuclear weapon. Actually, there were eight of them on an SS-24 missile. I went in to talk to the security people who were guarding the facility, as a matter of fact, and every one of my questions was answered.” ...
“For example, in the United States we have a two-person policy involving nuclear weapons. In other words, you have to have a minimum of two people in order to get close to a nuclear weapon. In Russia it’s the three-person policy. ... I’m talking about access to a nuclear weapon itself. ... There are a lot of safeguards built in. Trust me. ...
“At our [weapon storage] sites, you need two people to go do that, who understand what they are doing, whatever tasks they are going to do. In Russia you need three people.” ...
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“General Yakovlev was very open to me. As a matter of fact, we spent almost three hours just talking one-on-one with a Russian interpreter. General Yakovlev showed me, for example, his computer screen, which is tied to a local area network, and he sees the equivalent of up to top-secret information. ... He showed me, for example, the page that listed the whereabouts of every nuclear weapon in his command. ...
“Whenever the Russian Rocket Forces move a weapon, whether it’s 30 yards from a bunker to a facility to do maintenance or from a missile field back to the home base, which may be 30 or 40 miles, a minimum of a two-star on the Rocket Forces staff approves that.”
At 11:17 am, ®B nige said...
Regarding scaling rules for collateral damage from nuclear weapons, again I point out that the bigger the bomb yield is and so the bigger the radial damage line is, the GREATER the effect of a city skyline in shielding thermal and nuclear radiation and blast, and that the evidence for this is:
(1) Penney's direct data from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, published in 1970 and ignored by Glasstone: exponential skyline shielding gets bigger for greater distances affected by bigger bombs.
(2) Direct data plots of actual observed casualties per ton of TNT for a range of conventional and chemical explosives: H. M. Government, Health and Safety Executive (Commission), Advisory Committee on Major Hazards, Second Report, 1979, Figure 3, shown in http://glasstone.blogspot.com/2015/10/russian-anti-terrorism-policing-world.html This is ignored by Uncle Sam.
This REAL WORLD DATA ON EXPLOSION EFFECTS automatically INCLUDES all blast duration effects, which are more than offset in reality by factors like the natural tendency of people to take cover when exposed by a very bright flash, which is greater at higher yields due to increasing average blast arrival time over the larger area for higher yields! Yes, blast duration increases at megaton yields, but so does the blast arrival time of a given peak overpressure! Lying down has a far greater effect in reducing area exposed to flying debris, heat, and blast winds, than the effect of increased blast duration.
(3) We haven't even gotten into the issue that at 5psi, houses exposed at Teapot series shot Apple 2 in nevada failed in the NEGATIVE PHASE, so the walls blew OUTWARDS, not in on people, TOTALLY contrary to ranting lunatic CND liars like Jeremy corbyn and his racist thugs who are intent on repeating the war exaggerations of the 1930s to cause WWIII. All the lying media crap on nuclear war effects is fake news, we exposed this over a decade ago and it remains ignored by the WWIII due to disarmament and appeasement traplovers.
At 4:25 pm, @ Anonymous said...
1)using William Penney's exponential attenuation data, and given a 22 kiloton airburst at 500 meters, at what distance would you expect a hollow cinderblock building to suffer cracking but no collapse? What about a 176 kiloton at 1000 meter height of burst? I know that in the latter case the radius will be less than twice that of the former, due to the attenuation of the bottom of the mach stem by successive buildings. Maybe attenuation would be less significant in the region of regular reflection?
2a) you may have a point there. I am a little bit skeptical of a graph with a "correlation" on it, and data points off of it on both sides by a factor of 3 to 5. 1 am far more skeptical of the claim below it that it can be extrapolated down to 290000 tons of 3.7 kg artillery rounds. Again, scaling between kilotons and megatons does follow the cube root rule, or even a weaker function of yield due to attenuation by buildings. It's scaling tons to kilotons, or kilograms to tons, that the duration effects are most important.
2b) victims of shelling or air raids had some form of warning, either from civil defense sirens or else from the first few charges hitting their neighbors or another part of the trench. The exception was isolated V2's and Hiroshima+Nagasaki, but with even the bare minimum of civil defense, there would be warnings before a modern ballistic missile or airdropped nuclear device.
3) wait, what? Partial collapse happened at 4700 ft from a 29 kt low air burst? Just last night I linked you a video of a hollow cinder block veneer wall, being subject to the (cube root scaled) equivalent of a 29 kt burst at 920 ft. It suffered minor cracking on the back, but not partial collapse by any stretch of the imagination.
Your central point stands up, by the proven effect of attenuation for very high yields (many tens of kilotons or more).
It stands up by the proven protective effect of modern steel and concrete buildings (as opposed to the easily collapsed/ignited wooden buildings that suffered the most casualties at Hiroshima and Nagasaki).
It stands up by the relative effect of civil defense giving tremendous protective factors against heat, blast, and especially fallout in American nuclear tests, etc.
The huge relative effect for civil defense shown during the London Blitz, and the few people who practiced it in Japan also supports your point.
There is no need to take away all that credibility with bogus scaling to "equivalent megatonnage" that I've seen so many times here.
At 6:53 pm, @ Anti-nuclear liar said... https://www.theguardian.com/world/20 1 8/jan/14/nuclear-deterrence-myth-lethal-david-barash Nuclear deterrence is a myth. And a lethal one at that
Nuclear deterrence continues to dominate international relations. Yet there is no proof it ever worked, nor that it ever will
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by David P Barash
Sun 14 Jan 2018 11.00 GMT
516
In his classic The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy (1989), Lawrence Freedman, the dean of British military historians and strategists, concluded: ‘The Emperor Deterrence may have no clothes, but he is still Emperor.’
At 7:10 pm, 16) nige said...
That's the populist view in the media, and Lawrence Freedman "the dean of British military historians" is just a ignorant troll according to an experience we had indirectly with him over 20 years ago. Bill Massey, a sub-editor on the staff of a British tabloid newspaper, either Express or Mail, re-wrote a draft article we submitted for the Editor debunking nuclear weapons effects lies being used by - I believe from memory - prime minister Tony Blair to "justify" invading Iraq, that we must have regime change to prevent London being wiped off the map by Saddam's hydrogen bomb within 45 minutes.
Anyway, this subeditor then had to get independent verification and comment so he phoned Professor Lawrence Freedman who according to Bill Massey said, no, Saddam's H-bomb is so muge it will vaporize the entire planet so we must invade Iraq and the article must be stopped. 460,000 deaths resulted in that iraq war - https://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of the _Iraq_War
So he did more harm than the nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, if you can believe that. Now, Saddam was a dictator and a threat. Do what did our never-published article recommend? Yes, credible nuclear deterrence to stop Saddam's invasions and effective civil defence against the nuclear (and gas war) threats. Honesty is not Freedman's cup of tea. As we saw in the covid pandemic response, gas masks to stop the initial spread for a couple of weeks, was also not the cup of tea of the authorities. What they prefer is huge numbers dead, huge debt, and huge suffering. Weird, really horrible thugs.
At 7:24 pm, & Guardian newspaper article on need to appease Putin as we did Hitler for fear of getting into a war said... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/26/russia-reasserts-right-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-putin Russia reasserts right to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine Senior politician Dmitry Medvedev says Moscow’s nuclear doctrine does not require enemy state to use such weapons first
The Kremlin again raised the spectre of the use of nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine as Russian forces struggled to hold a key city in the south of the country.
Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who is deputy chairman of the countrys security council, said Moscow could strike against an enemy that only used conventional weapons while Vladimir Putin s defence minister claimed nuclear “readiness” was a priority.
.. “Russia is deliberating bragging they can destroy with nuclear weapons, not only a certain country but the entire planet,” Zelenskiy said. ...
Russia has approximately 6,000 nuclear warheads — the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. In an interview on Saturday, Medvedev said Russia's nuclear doctrine did not require an enemy state to use such weapons first. ... Medvedev added that there was a “determination to defend the independence, sovereignty of our country, not to give anyone a reason to doubt even the slightest that we are ready to give a worthy response to any infringement on our country, on its independence ”.
Russia’ defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, who had not been seen for 12 days ... said: “We continue ahead-of-schedule delivery of
weaponry and equipment by means of credits. The priorities are long-range, high-precision weapons, aircraft equipment and maintenance of engagement readiness of strategic nuclear forces.”
At 4:58 pm, & Chemical weapons used in Ukraine peace meeting against Ukrainian peace negotiators by Putin said... Chemical weapons used in Ukraine peace meeting against Ukrainian peace negotiators by Putin https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abramovich-and-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-suffer-symptoms-of-suspected-poisoning- 11648480493 Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian Peace Negotiators Suffer Suspected Poisoning
The Russian oligarch and others developed symptoms they blamed on hard-liners in Moscow who they say want to sabotage talks to end the war
Roman Abramovich, pictured in 2017, has shuttled between Moscow, Lviv and other venues to help negotiate an end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
PHOTO: MIKE EGERTON/PA WIRE/ZUMA PRESS By Yaroslav Trofimov & Max Colchester Updated Mar. 28, 2022 11:56 am ET
Russian oligarchRoman Abramovich and Ukrainian peace negotiators suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning after a meeting in Kyiv earlier this month, people familiar with the matter said.
Following the meeting in the Ukrainian capital, Mr. Abramovich, who has shuttled between Moscow, Lviv and other negotiating venues, as well as at least two senior members of the Ukrainian team developed symptoms that included red eyes, constant and painful tearing, and peeling skin on their faces and hands, the people said.
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At 7:09 pm, 8 Anonymous said...
I just want to say, thank you for finding and including DE Jarrett's calculation of blast damage radii as a complex function of yield. It's worth pointing out out that th term in the denominator is actually [1+(7000/W)*2]‘1/6. In the screen shot it looks like [1+(7000/W)*2].
Anyhow, I tried the equation out on a calculator, and it predicted the grade A damage radius for a V-2 within 10% of what was actually observed. (The slight variation could be due to the exact yield effects of the filling material, orientation of individual target buildings, blast absorption by the large frangible rocket case etc.)
then I used the 1960 Capabilities of Atomic Weapons assumptions of actual TNT releasing 1100 calories per gram, and a nuclear "kiloton" being equal to 1 trillion calories and having a 50% reduction in blast efficiency due to energy partitioning.
After factoring this all in, the observed blast effects for 47kt Greenhouse-Easy matched the equation remarkably well.
It's worth noting that this equation predicts a 10-fold reduction in blast area for a 100kg burst from what would be expected using cube- root downscaling of kiloton range bursts.
At 7:55 pm, @ Anonymous said...
The equation also looks sane for predicting damage at a kilogram scale. Even though the seemingly unreinforced block wall in the video linked is subjected to 2.6 lb TNT equivalent in free air at 3 ft (which according to cube root scaling is equivalent to 47 kilotons surface bursted (or 83 kilotons in free air) at 290 meters, or a 15 kiloton CONTACT SURFACE BURST at 190 meters the cinderblock wall shows only limited cracking and no collapse or dislodged blocks. This is at least a rough approximation of what we'd expect from Jarrett's equation:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uGmxUMkz9Q¢
I would hope this equation replaces W“1/3 scaling in the future when trying to scale ton and kilogram yield conventional weapons effects (cratering aside) to nuclear effects of a few kilotons or more. The results still support your points about civil defense and credible deterrence. They just also show the transparency of someone who is willing to include proven data even when a more convenient assumption could be made to fit your proposals.
If only government and other "official" sources would show such transparency.
At 9:13 pm, & Kyiv shelters said...
A major reason why Ukraine can fight Russian invaders and survive their bombs against civilian targets is the deep underground shelters, 4,500 in Kyiv alone. The origins of the civilian defense shelters in Russia, Ukraine and other USSR provinces go back a long time; the Soviet Union also decreed in April 1941 that all new underground metro stations must also be designed and built to be used as effective air raid shelters.
Ukrainians are discovering local bomb shelters now also bars and strip clubs By Hannah Frishberg https://nypost.com/2022/02/17/ukrainians-are-discovering-bomb-shelters-now-also-bars/
As the situation on the Ukraine border continues to intensify, many Kyiv residents are taking time to locate the nearest bomb shelter — only to discover they double as entertainment venues.
Since the Soviet Union's collapse, many of the citys fallout shelters have been reborn as various commercial enterprises, from cocktail bars and restaurants to a strip club. Staff at the ventures say that, should it become necessary for city residents to take shelter there, they re more than ready to offer protection in a comfortable setting.
“Whats a better place to be than here if there is a war?” a bartender at Kyiv’s Parovoz, a speakeasy bar located in a shelter beneath a movie theater, told BuzzFeed News."
At 9:47 pm, B nige said...
On brick wall failure to nuclear blasts: I'm not impressed by arguments about the strength of brick walls to blast, and precise equations modelling that, for strong reasons of personal experience (I have photos to prove the following account, which I will try to add to the post soon). Here's my experience (photos to follow):
1. The summer of 1976 was very hot in England. I was aged four, and played outside in a garden, beside what was initially a wooden fence. An apartment block was built beside the house that summer, and it included a car park (parking lot if you are American) beside the garden I played. The builders replaced the wooden fence with a red-brick wall "for safety". Regular British bricks, regular British cement, regular British builders.
2. I have photos of me playing in the garden before and after the wooden fence was replaced with the brick wall. I also have photos, taken
for legal reasons, of the brick wall blown down and collapsed across the garden two weeks later, after a gust of wind of approximately 40 miles/hour (equivalent to a the wind pressure associated with about | psi or whatever). There was no way that brick wall should have been
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blown down that easily: wooden fences supposedly a lot weaker survived higher wind pressures in gales for years.
3. Dad had studied architecture in the early 1950s while working for a builders firm which was repairing WWII bomb damage and he photographed the wall carefully. The key failure in the wall was near the ground: the wall cement failed far too easily. There had been cement problems with British brick built surface shelters built in heatwaves in WWII too.
4, Examination of failure-line brick-cement interface showed why the wall failed: the cement had not adhered to the bricks, it was not absorbed. When building a brick wall in 30C heat you need to soak the bricks in water before applying cement, to give the cement a chance to soak into the surface and "bond" to the bricks. Otherwise, it dries too quickly on contact, and the cement forms only a very weak bond. The builders had taken a short cut and had not bothered to soak the bricks in water before building the wall in very hot weather. The experienced architect who examined the wall agreed with dad, and the builders had to rebuild the wall properly. I was very lucky not to have been playing outside when the brick wall blew over. The completed apartment block didn't blow over in the gale, but that may have been due to the external walls being propped up by internal partition wall.
So I'm skeptical about the brick houses built and exposed in the very dry Nevada desert during Operation Teapot nuclear tests in May 1955. Did those builders soak the bricks in water to slow down the bonding of the cement, for optimum strength when building those houses? It's very questionable, since most brick houses are built in cooler climates and wood frame houses in the USA are in hot climates. Who built those brick houses in the Nevada? Did they have enough water and time to soak the bricks?
If you build a brick wall in hot weather without soaking the bricks, the wall can be blown over easily by normal gale wind strengths without requiring a nuclear bomb. This makes me question the whole basis for predicting blast failure of brick walls: how much variation do you get due to the differing adsorption rates of cement at different temperatures? Clearly, builders don't "always" soak bricks in water before building with them, and there are thousands of bricks in walls. Any single layer of cement that doesn't bond the surfaces of the lower and upper bricks properly will behave like a weak link in a chain, permitting the entire wall to fail at that height.
At 11:07 pm, @ Anonymous said...
The "brick" house exposed closest to teapot apple 2 (29kt) was at 1,430 meters ground range. It was, as you've duly noted in other posts, made of a single outer brick layer and a layer of cinder block behind it, and then a wood frame that only partially collapsed at 5 psi while the bricks mostly fell outward.
Before accounting for bad mortar technique, I'd give a layman's half informed guess of it having similar strength to the wall in that video that failed to collapse at a scaled range of 77 meters from 1| kt. Ditto the cinderblock wall that was scattered over almost half a city block by Plumbbob-Galileo (11 kt) at 840 meters.
The house I was trying to compare Jarrett's calculation with was blown up on April 20 1955 on Enewatak Atoll. It didn't fully collapse, a couple walls staid standing. I am not sure of the weather conditions during it's construction, but it was most certainly not "very dry."
At 11:46 pm, & Debunking Putin's Bunker said...
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37569/putin-reveals-existence-of-new-nuclear-command-bunker-and-says-its-almost- complete
Putin Reveals Existence Of New Nuclear Command Bunker
Russia already has two very large bunker complexes built underneath mountains, including one housing a key nuclear doomsday command system.
BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK NOVEMBER 11, 2020
The Kremlin has released an unusual transcript of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior defense and other government officials, as well as representatives of Russia's defense industries, regarding the modernization of the country's nuclear command and control infrastructure. In it, among other things, Putin disclosed that work on a new hardened strategic command post, possibly a deeply buried underground bunker, is nearing completion.
Putin held the meeting in Sochi on Nov. 11, 2020. Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Russian Army General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the country's military, were also in attendance, among others.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/06/02/new-russian-policy-allows-use-of-atomic-weapons-against-non-nuclear- strike/
New Russian policy allows use of atomic weapons against non-nuclear strike
By Vladimir Isachenkov, The Associated Press June 2, 2020
MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday endorsed Russia s nuclear deterrent policy, which allows him to use atomic weapons in response to a conventional strike targeting the nation’ critical government and military infrastructure.
By including a non-nuclear attack as a possible trigger for Russian nuclear retaliation, the document appears to send a warning signal to the U.S. ... In addition to that, the document now states that Russia could use its nuclear arsenals ... also in the case of "enemy impact on critically important government or military facilities of the Russian Federation, the incapacitation of which could result in the failure of retaliatory action of nuclear forces." (I.e. any Western sanctions that have a really useful effect could result in nuclear "retaliation" .)
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. At 11:47 pm, @ Russia's 2016 nuclear war civil defense drill - the facts said...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3875092/Man-bunkers-Chilling-footage-shows-Russia-completed-nuclear-drill- 40MILLION-people-Putin-builds-bomb-shelters-protect-Moscow-s-entire-population.html
Man the bunkers! Chilling footage shows how Russia has completed nuclear drill for 40 MILLION people as Putin builds bomb shelters to protect Moscow's entire population
Video shows emergency workers in protective yellow suits and gas masks
School auditoriums became mock hospital wards as part of the mass drill
Comes after Russia unveiled pictures of its largest ever nuclear missile
By JULIAN ROBINSON FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 16:06, 26 October 2016 | UPDATED: 00:30, 27 October 2016
Chilling footage has emerged of Russia stepping up preparations for war by carrying out a nuclear drill for 40 million people.
Video shows emergency workers with protective suits and gas masks leading the biggest civil defence rehearsals since the end of the Cold War.
Bomb shelters in Moscow have been upgraded so that the city's entire population can be protected, according to Russian authorities. ... It came just weeks after the Kremlin's Ministry of Emergency Situations staged a four-day nuclear-war survival drill.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the ministry's Andrey Mishchenko said: 'An inventory was taken in Moscow of the citys underground spaces, in order to allow us to plan for sheltering 100% of the city s population." ...
The massive evacuation drill is said to have lasted four days. A Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters spokesman said at the time: 'The three-stage four-day drill involves more than 40 million people, more than 200,000 specialists of rescue units based
in regions, organizations and enterprises, as well as some 50,000 units of equipment ...
Earlier this month it was reported that Russian citizens have been told a war with the West could be imminent and Kremlin officials have said underground shelters have been built to house 12 million people.
At 11:54 pm, @ Putin's berchtesgaden said...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10563727/Putin-moves-family-members-Siberian-underground-city-designed-survive- nuclear-war.html
Putin 'moves family members to Siberian 'underground city' designed to survive a nuclear war' Valery Solovey, 61, is a political scientist and former professor in Moscow
He claims Putin has sent his family to a nuclear bunker in the Altai Mountains
By WILL STEWART FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 09:49, 1 March 2022 | UPDATED: 13:55, 1 March 2022
Vladimir Putin has in recent days hidden his family members in an ‘underground city’ in Siberia, according to a Russian professor.
The luxury hi-tech bunker is located in the Altai Mountains and was designed for protection in the event of nuclear war, said political scientist Valery Solovey, 61. ...
Altayskoye Podvorie resort, built by Gazprom, in the Altai Mountains. The resort allegedly contains one of Putin's personal dachas ...
"At the weekend, President Putin's family was evacuated to a special bunker prepared in case of nuclear war,' said the professor in a video. 'This bunker is located in the [mountainous] Altai Republic. 'In fact, it is not a bunker, but a whole underground city, equipped with the latest science and technology.' (Altai mountains pictured) ...
Solovey's claim comes as Russia pounds Kyiv and Kharkiv with missile strikes, leading to accusations that Putin is committing war crimes by deploying devastating cluster bombs on helpless civilians (pictured: Kharkiv's administrative centre after it was shelled on
March 1, 2022) ...
Solovey, who claims to have insider contacts in the Kremlin, is believed to be referring to a sprawling mountain dacha built ostensibly by energy behemoth Gazprom around a decade ago in the Ongudaysky district of the Altai Republic ...
Observers have noted multiple ventilation points in the grounds surrounding the mountain hideout, and a high voltage line linked to an ultra-modern 110 kilovolt substation, enough to power a small city.
During construction, vast German tunnel diggers were reported to have been at the site. ...
Putin has two adult daughters Maria Vorontsova, 36, a geneticist, and Katerina Tikhonova, 35, a dancer-turned-mathematician.
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He is also reported to have a daughter named Luiza Rozova, a 18-year-old heiress also known as Elizaveta Krivonogikh, from a previous relationship with cleaner-turned-multimillionaire Svetlana Krivonogikh, 45, now a part-owner of a major Russian bank.
At 12:33 am, B nige said... "The house I was trying to compare Jarrett's calculation with was blown up on April 20 1955 on Enewatak Atoll."
You mean the 3psi peak overpressue from 47 kt Greenhouse-Easy on April 20 1951, not 1955 (the only Pacific nuclear test in 1955 was Wigwam, a deep underwater burst).
Greenhouse-Easy test on a real brick house - which survived with relatively minor roof damage, having an estimated repair costs of just 10% of the rebuild cost according to the weapon test report - was omitted from all editions of Dr Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons, yet it was included the unclassifed 1973 DCPA Attack Environment Manual written by Walmer E. Strope!
Glasstone also totally covers up the originally secret Hiroshima firestorm evidence that thermal flash failed to cause the firestorm, since the vast majority of eyewitness interviews showed clearly that the firestorm was due to overturned charcoal braziers in blasted wooden houses, as shown in vol. 2 of the full (Secret) Strategic Bombing Survey report on Hiroshima. The 1973 DCPA Attack Environment Manual by Strope is better on Hiroshima, pointing out that simple amateur fire fighting with water buckets saved two concrete buildings from firebrands 2-3 hours after detonation, when the firestorm raged.
However, they don't really get into simple facts about firestorms being impossible without charcoal breakfast braziers in wooden houses, because of the artificial concrete skyline of a modern city blocking sight of the fireball from most windows. George Stanbury's 1964 concept of simply considering geometrically how many lower floor windows one building shadows another of similar height, a given distance away, for the known fireball height, i.e. radius in a surface burst, makes the shadowing percentage estimates crystal clear as a function of average built-upness, building height, weapon yield, etc. This doesn't just disprove firestorms, which required - as Stanbury points out 50% of buildings to be ignited - when less than 5% are in modern cities (he planned the Hamburg firestorm in 1943 so knows what he is talking about; he argues that there were many air raids on German cities and few firestorms, and those only occurred in areas where at least 50% of houses were initially ignited by the attack).
This debunking of nuclear firestorms also debunks its 1983 associated consequence of climatic "nuclear winter" because the anti-nuclear people need to assume firestorms to get enough soot into the stratosphere, or you just get the black rain of hydroscopic soot that occurred in Hiroshima.
At 12:52 pm, @ Anonymous said...
I found the date on Wikipedia, and somehow incorrectly transcribed a character. Anyhow, they exposed identical heavy brick buildings at 7020 and 4245 ft. The inner house experienced roughly 9 psi. It's featured in AD0O757791 on page 89, the damage wasn't quite as extensive in the writing of the report as it looked in the grainy copied picture. But it was assumed to be about 53% damaged.
It was enough damage to preclude any chance of it staying standing at 950 ft, which would be required in order to validate cube root scaling for kilogram scale shell impacts as done elsewhere on your blog. It was enough to rule out it standing at 2000 ft, which would be required to validate cube root scaling for single ton V2 impacts in WW2.
At 5:32 pm, & https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/6/the-spectre-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons-use-in-ukraine said...
Propaganda article from Aljazeera news TV, trying to draw analogy between Ukraine war and the October 1962 Cuban missiles crisis (not true, because America had vast nuclear stockpile superiority then, unlike today), and also falsely claiming that nuclear weapons are "ironically" preventing us from helping Ukraine, when in fact we persuaded Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons to ensure its safety, just as we stupidly persuaded France to disarm up to 1935, in the belief that a disarmed Europe would never have a war because Hitler wouldn't feel threatened!!! Unbelievably naive lies that were soon disproved by the fact that disarmament allowed WWII to start, but the disarmament liars continued to thrive and repeated the same folly with Ukraine in the 1990s!!!
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/6/the-spectre-of-tactical-nuclear-weapons-use-in-ukraine
Features
|
Russia-Ukraine war
The spectre of tactical nuclear weapons use in Ukraine
What are these weapons and could Russia use them in Ukraine?
By Alex Gatopoulos Published On 6 Apr 2022 6 Apr 2022
... The questions are simple: Would Putin break the nuclear taboo by using these weapons in anger for the first time in 77 years? And, if so, how would President Biden respond? ... So, if Russia detonated just one nuclear weapon, say over a military target, would the United States risk climbing the escalatory ladder by retaliating in kind, with global destruction waiting on the top rung? President Biden recently signed a memorandum allowing the US nuclear weapons use in retaliation for a chemical or nuclear attack. ...
At 6:02 pm, 16) nige said...
It is possible to scale the peak overpressure for damage in small weapon to higher yields using vulnerability numbers, see for example Table C-2 in Appendix C to the 1972 DNA-EM-1:
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https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2017/07/new-photos-of-non-collapsed-brick. html
(EM-1 is probably wrong for brick houses for ignoring Greenhouse-Easy). It which shows that for concrete and brick buildings the peak overpressure required for damage is constant above | megaton, regardless of yield, thus the cube-root scaling over open unobstructed terrain for yields >1 megaton.
That table shows that a brick house suffers severe damage at 5.0 psi peak overpressure for all yields from 30 kilotons (teapot-Apple 2 yield) upwards (the table ends at 30 megatons, probably due to the W41 25 Mt being the largest US weapon developed although never tested at that yield).
This increases with lower yields, from 5.0 psi at 30 kt to 6.5 psi at 100 tons of TNT nuclear yield (0.1 kt), and to 7.5 psi at 10 tons of TNT nuclear yield (0.01 kt).
You can get into the physical vulnerabilities approach to calculating damage pressures. We covered this in our August 1990 unpublished book manuscript, "Nuclear weapons effects theory", which debunked the effects mythology circulated for disarmament propaganda. Then the USSR collapsed and the book went unpublished, although this blog began in 2006 when Russia started on the road to war, not just Litvinenko's Po-210 London teapot, but also Russia's "peace enforcement" invasion of first Chechnya in 1999 and then Georgia in 2008. Russia has made a habit of aggression and violence.
At 5:07 am, 8 Anonymous said...
As much as I trust EM-1, that damage criteria table has some dubious values in it. It predicts "severe damage" to reinforced concrete buildings for 12 or 13 psi for Hiroshima/Nagasaki size bursts.
Maybe it's a theoretical calculation based on an inaccurate modeling. Maybe these values only apply for the onset of structural damage, and not true collapse. Maybe they had a 2x or 3x fudge factor based on "defensive conservatism" (which, ironically, could lead to more civilian casualties if it got added into a civil defense plan.)
I don't have some special fixation on damage criteria to brick and cinderblock structures. It's just that we have real-world data showing a threshold of collapse, in psi, that's:
1, maybe 2 figures for kiloton yields and up. 2 to 3 figures for ton and hundreds of kilogram yields.
3, maybe 4 figures for low kilogram yields, which on this blog have been scaled based on overpressure area alone, up to megaton equivalents.
According to oversimplified media (which is uneducated scientifically) 10 220 kt nuclear warheads do the same blast damage as 2.2 megatons of HE delivered in 20 million small bursts.
According to cube root scaling, (a scientific model that accurately predicts overpressure but ignores some critical physical target properties such as inertia and elasticity for subkiloton yields) and taking into account the inefficient energy partitioning of a nuclear burst, that same 2 megaton conventional bombardment is the equivalent of 2200 separate 220 kiloton warheads.
According to this model, the bombardment of world war 2 exposed 2,700 square miles to 30 psi overpressure, and if spread out widely enough 8100 square miles of 10 psi overpressure, and 18500 square miles to 5 psi overpressure.
Using Jarrett's equation, the overpressure areas are still massive, but the actual area damaged by blast is diminished by a factor of 10 for 100 kg (equivalent to .00022 kt nuclear yield) bursts. Now we are looking at needing 220 separate 220 kt warheads to do the same damage, or maybe less damage due to attenuation effects, (that is,unless an air burst is able to cause line-of-sight damage without having to travel through rows of buildings.)
If my point (about dramatic changes in damage scaling at *SUBKILOTON* yields) is unclear at this point, then there's no sense in continuing to argue it. Or perhaps it is being dismissed deliberately.
I'll stop posting these ridiculously long posts, until next time I see cube root scaling at subkiloton yields.
At 5:13 am, 8 Anonymous said...
I think a book on nuclear effects theory would have a great chance of getting published in the current social consciousness.
It might work as a great follow-up, after first publishing a "beginners" manual that literally an 8th grade student could interpret, with yield vs radius predictions for different types and probabilities of damage, with and without the effects of attenuation, and with options for protected and unprotected personnel etc. Have some mappy looking diagrams showing circles around GZ, similar to Nukemap or DCPA's "what the planner needs to know about..." series, and maybe some color coded fallout shielding diagrams for buildings, sourced from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services: https://remm.hhs.gov/buildingblast.htm
Have some advice, in layman terms, of how to find makeshift shelter, shield emergency electronics from EMP (not that it is a severe threat,) reduce the risk of ignition to buildings and skin, etc. I may even undertake this basic style of manual at some point. A proper scientific effects manual is probably beyond my scope though.
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. At 9:41 pm, B nige said...
Thank you for those suggestions! There's quite a bit more I'd also want to put into such a book on physics. The universe utilises nuclear explosions that create stars, life (iron, calcium are stable decay products from neutron captures supernovae explosions, while lighter elements were produced in the big bang), despite hypocrisy from the disarmament-minded that explosions are somehow contrary to life, the universe, politics, and civilization!
I'd like to blast that!
Also, I've received some arguments that the inability of high yield nuclear weapons to produce Glasstone's fake crater dimensions is void because of the liberal amount of overkill, e.g. >100 Minutemen megaton nuclear missiles (out of the total McNamara deployed, 1,000 Minutemen) were targetted just on Moscow's Dog House radar and Triad System to suppress its ABM system, prior to a full attack (see "History of S.A.C., Jan-June 1968, Historical Study No. 112, vol. 1, History and Research Division, Headquarters Strategic Air Command, Feb. 1969"). This is horses**t: it is just 1950s "massive retaliation" nonsense, not flexible response, and although it is possibly quite proper to make plans to literally waste and blow over 10% of the entire U.S. land missile ICBM force on taking out Moscow's ABM, it is exceedingly unlikely to ever occur in WWIII, which is more likely - as General Sir John Hackett's book about the most likely WWIII points out - to involve conventional wars and limited nuclear attacks/demonstration strikes.
The way nuclear weapons should be used is not John Foster Dulles' "massive retaliation" bluff (disarmament via firing everything you have at the civilians in a dictatorship!), but by credible deterrence, deploying low yield (kiloton range) tactical nuclear weapons to de- escalate (rather than escalate!) a conventional invasion or war.
What is happening now is that President Biden is delivering $800 million of conventional weapons to Ukraine, which includes helicopters M113 armoured personnel carriers, tens of thousands of shells, etc., which won't defeat Russia or a determined Putin, but will more likely ESCALATE the conflict piecemeal.
The risk then is that Russian submarines (or planes, drones, cruise missiles, robot torpedoes, what have you) will "accidentally" sink the American armament convoys going to Ukraine, or that some intermediary in NATO will get blasted by Russia to stop Ukraine being rearmed. Then Mr Biden has the choice of either behaving like Baldwin and Chamberlain in the 1930s, or responding. Any response helpful to Ukraine naturally will be likely seen by Putin as climbing up the escalation ladder. At some point "atmospheric nuclear testing" by Russia (or whatever Mr Putin will call it), will be resumed, with the blame on Mr Biden.
History has repeatedly proved that human nature is the exact opposite of the disarmament idealists fantasy. Already popular sentiment seems to be to help Ukraine by supplying arms for the proxy war against Russia. This is the worst of all possible options: it plays into Mr Putin's propaganda machine (the story of the fascist war-mongering West being in a mad and dangerous anti-Russian conspiracy) as well as devastating Ukraine without ending the war. People who say Ukraine has won battles by keeping Russia out of Kyiv, need to appreciate that Russia has been spending inordinate resources on war preparations since 1917 and Hitler also thought he was winning a war against Russia until the last moment!
At 8:08 am, & https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10756707/Russia-target-UK-diplomats-Ukraine-capital-British-minister- backs-bombing-Russia.html said...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10756707/Russia-target-UK-diplomats-Ukraine-capital-British-minister-backs-bombing- Russia.html
Moscow says it CAN strike military sites in Britain and other NATO countries and may target our diplomats in Kyiv with ‘retaliatory strikes' after UK minister's 'provocative' backing for Ukraine bombing Russia
Moscow warned it could target UK diplomats with bombs as they return to Kyiv following Russia's failed siege
The Kremlin also warned it could strike NATO sites in countries like Britain over their support of Ukraine
The escalation comes as Russia agitates over the West arming Ukrainian forces in their resistance of Putin
The Kremlin's defence ministry made the remark after James Heappey backed Ukrainian air strikes on Russia
By MARC NICOL and GLEN KEOGH FOR THE DAILY MAIL
PUBLISHED: 22:00, 26 April 2022 | UPDATED: 08:26, 27 April 2022
The Kremlin has warned it could target military sites in the UK because of British support for Ukraine, while adding that it could also hit British diplomats returning to Kyiv after a defence minister's 'provocative' talk of bombing Russia.
Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, suggested that strikes could be authorised against NATO states who provide arms to Ukraine.
She warned: 'Do we understand correctly that for the sake of disrupting the logistics of military supplies, Russia can strike military targets on the territory of those Nato countries that supply arms to the Kyiv regime? ‘After all, this directly leads to deaths and bloodshed on Ukrainian territory. As far as I understand, Britain is one of those countries.'
Her words came after Britain's Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said that the UK backed Ukrainian air strikes on Russian infrastructure.
He added that it would be ‘completely legitimate' for British weapons to be used in such attacks, even though none are currently thought to be.
Heappey also said that Britain would re-start the training of Ukrainian troops inside Ukraine if the conflict became ‘frozen' in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
But his remarks were seized upon by the Kremlin, with the defence ministry accusing him of ‘provocation’.
In a significant escalation of tensions, Moscow also warned that it would be prepared to strike back at ‘decision-making centres' in Kyiv in retaliation — even if British and other Western diplomats were present.
Meanwhile, Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the defence select committee, said Heappey's remarks had the ‘potential to invite retaliatory attacks into Poland'.
He also warned that Russia could hit western targets outside Ukraine and told The Times that the West was becoming ‘increasingly involved in a proxy war'.. ...
‘Considerable' risk of nuclear war, Putin's attack dog warns By Mark Nichol Defence Editor for the Daily Mail
Vladimir Putin's attack-dog diplomat has accused the UK and other Western powers of risking nuclear war by supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Sergei Lavrov claimed Nato's support for Ukraine intended to weaken Russia and had pitched Moscow into a 'proxy war' with the security alliance.
Ina chilling threat, he suggested the West's continued provision of military aid meant there was a 'considerable risk' of a nuclear conflict. ... ‘Nato has entered into a war with Russia through proxies and is arming those proxies and pouring oil on the fire. ... the West wants Ukraine to continue to fight and, as it seems to them, wear out, exhaust the Russian army and the Russian military industrial complex. This is an illusion."
At 8:18 am, ® nige said...
The 2016 Russian nuclear war sheltering civil drill (mentione din comments above) is not the only recent one. They now hold them every couple of years, often in conjunction with military nuclear war drills:
(1). https://Awww.themoscowtimes.com/2018/10/01/russia-launches-exercises-to-test-populations-readiness-for-external-aggression- a63042 :
"Russia Launches Exercises to Test Population's Readiness for 'External Aggression’ "Oct. 1, 2018
"Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry has announced the start of three-day civil defense drills across the country to test the population’s readiness in the case of external aggression.
"As part of the exercises, the ministry tasked civil defense units with ensuring the functionality of the economy and social services in the case of an “escalation of the geopolitical situation.” The practice run comes amid strained relations between Russia and the West that have fallen to a post-Cold War low.
“All commanders are ordered to take comprehensive measures to ensure the readiness of forces to react,” Emergency Situations Minister Yevgeny Zinichev said in the announcement on Monday. ...
"The initial stage will also reportedly test the readiness of shelters, evacuation routes and temporary accommodation facilities to ensure that social support systems are provided “in case of external aggression against Russia.”
"The third stage envisions practical measures or tactical drills in wartime conditions, the news agency says. "The exercises are set to wrap up one day ahead of Russia’s Civil Defense Day celebrated on Oct. 4." https://www.interfax.ru/russia/631285
IN RUSSIA 11:00, october 1, 2018
Staff exercises on civil defense began throughout Russia
Moscow. October Ist. INTERFAX.RU - The head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation Evgeny Zinichev has launched an all-Russian training in civil defense, which is supposed to work out actions in the event of a sudden external aggression against Russia.
"In accordance with instructions from the government, from October | to October 3, we are conducting an all-Russian staff training on civil defense. ... According to the legend of the exercises, there will be an aggravation of the foreign policy situation. ... At the first two stages, the regions will work out the issues of alerting and gathering leadership and civil defense specialists, deploying control systems at the federal, regional and municipal levels, readiness of shelters, communication and warning systems, evacuation routes for the population, deployment of temporary accommodation centers, and life support population in the event of external aggression against Russia."
At 8:27 am, © nige said... (2). https://www.rbth.com/history/332017-civil-defense-ussr-lessons :
What was taught in civil defense lessons in the USSR? https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 470/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
HISTORY APR 16 2020 ANNA SOROKINA
"You still don’t know where to get a protective face mask? In the Soviet Union, every elementary school pupil knew how to make one themselves. ...
"And the USSR’s civil defense system took definitive shape in the 1960s, during the Cold War, when civil defense HQs appeared in every settlement and at more or less every major enterprise.
"From babies to pensioners
"Lectures on civil defense and practical training were compulsory in the USSR from the age of eight and continued throughout one’s life. Their main objective was to teach citizens to protect themselves against the effects of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.
"Teens at the civil defense lessons. "Arkady Shaykhet/russiainphoto.ru
"Introductory lessons started in the second grade of school. There were different courses for different age groups, but junior pupils already knew how to sew the most basic face masks from gauze and cotton wool, and to evacuate buildings when the alarm sounded. Children were told about weapons of mass destruction from elementary school. Schoolchildren knew they needed to hide from the shock wave of a nuclear explosion in a forest or ravine, and from radiation in an underground shelter....
"Special protective hoods with clear plastic windows for mounting on strollers or sleds were developed for children who couldn’t yet wear gas masks because of their age.
"In addition to the lectures, Soviet citizens had to meet certain training standards. For instance, people were required to select a gas mask at speed: when the order was given, you had to go up to a table, take your head measurement, find the right size of gas mask, screw the filter canister to the mask, put it on and check for airtightness. A time of one minute was regarded as excellent, while two minutes got you a bad mark. Another test required people to put on their own gas mask at speed: 10 seconds was excellent, but anything over 12 was unsatisfactory. ...
"Additionally, a brochure titled ‘What everyone should be aware of and know’ was published for a broad readership. It began with the assertion that “the imperialist camp is preparing the most terrible crime against humanity - a world thermonuclear war that could result in unprecedented destruction”, and so the duty of every Soviet citizen was “even in peacetime to study ways and means of ensuring protection against weapons of mass destruction and to know how to implement them in practice’, in order to protect their family. ...
"What about today?
"Although many people didn’t take exercises of this kind too seriously, many families in the USSR possessed gas masks, and youngsters could sew masks from improvised materials and knew where their nearest bomb shelter was. ... Civil defense lessons are still conducted, but not on the same scale. ... The older generation nevertheless still remembers how to act in the event of a threat from weapons of mass destruction."
4t 8:31 am, B nige said...
(3). https://www.ws].com/articles/russia-revives-nuclear-shelters-as-cold-war-heats-up- 1477301408
Russians Conduct Nuclear-Bomb Survival Drills as Cold War Heats Up Bomb shelters are upgraded, gas masks tested amid strained relations between Putin and U.S.
Cold War-era Soviet Union survival tactics are back in vogue as Russians by the millions participated in emergency drills across the country in early October. The test-runs come amid heightened tensions with the U.S. Photo: AP Photo/Ministry of Emergency Situations press service via AP
By Thomas GroveFollow
Updated Oct. 25, 2016 5:53 am ET
MOSCOW—Russian authorities have stepped up nuclear-war survival measures amid a showdown with Washington, dusting off Soviet- era civil-defense plans and upgrading bomb shelters in the biggest cities.
At the Kremlin’s Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Cold War is back.
The country recently held its biggest civil defense drills since the collapse of the U.S.S.R., with what officials said were 40 million people rehearsing a response to chemical and nuclear threats.
Videos of emergency workers deployed in hazmat suits or checking the ventilation in bomb shelters were prominently aired on television when the four days of drills were held across the country. Students tried on gas masks and placed dummies on stretchers in school auditoriums.
The capital’s civil-defense plans are also being upgraded, said Andrey Mishchenko, deputy head of the ministry.
“An inventory was taken in Moscow of the city’s underground spaces, in order to allow us to plan for sheltering 100% of the city’s population,” he said, as reported by state news agency RIA Novosti.
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
In parallel, commentators on state-dominated airwaves issued some of the shrillest anti-American rhetoric in years. “Russia is sick of America’s arrogant lies,” influential commentator Dmitry Kiselyov said this month after a Syrian peace plan collapsed.
At 8:38 am, & https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10759651/Ukraine-war-Putin-suggest-use-nukes-necessary.html said... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article- 1075965 1/Ukraine-war-Putin-suggest-use-nukes-necessary. html "Maria Zakharova, spokesman for the foreign ministry, then issued a threat to strike NATO countries supplying arms to Ukraine - with the UK among those leading weapons deliveries. ...Earlier today, Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov directly threatened the UK with nukes ... But UK armed forces minister James Heappey dismissed the comments as 'bravado', saying he sees no imminent threat of nuclear
escalation. ... UK foreign secretary Liz Truss will today urge the West to supply heavy weapons, tanks and warplanes to Ukraine as she pushes for higher defence spending. ... Off the back of those calls, Russia today cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria..."
At 8:40 am, & https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10794433/Russia-destroy-NATO-countries-half-hour-claims-close-Putin- crony-charge-rockets.html said...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10794433/Russia-destroy-NATO-countries-half-hour-claims-close-Putin-crony-charge- rockets.html
Russia could destroy ALL NATO countries in ‘half an hour' if there was nuclear war, head of Kremlin's space agency claims Dmitry Rogozin said NATO countries would be destroyed in 30 minutes in a war
The head of the Kremlin space agency says Russia wants to expunge Ukraine
He also claimed that Putin's aim is to defeat Russia's enemy: the West
But Rogozin also said ‘we must not allow nuclear war' to prevent global consequences
By WILL STEWART FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 12:45, 8 May 2022 | UPDATED: 21:40, 8 May 2022
One of Vladimir Putin's closest cronies claims Russia could destroy all NATO countries ‘in half a hour".
Dmitry Rogozin, head of the Kremlin's space agency, Roscosmos, also admitted the strongman's aim is to defeat the 'enemy' West and expunge Ukraine from the map.
‘NATO is waging a war against us,' said the former deputy premier of the 30-state Western military alliance.
‘They didn't announce it, but that doesn't change anything. Now it's obvious to everyone.'
The hardliner, 58, said: 'In a nuclear war, NATO countries will be destroyed by us in half an hour.
‘But we must not allow it, because the consequences of the exchange of nuclear strikes will affect the state of our Earth. ‘Therefore, we will have to defeat this economically and militarily more powerful enemy with conventional armed means.'
He hinted that Putin would put Russia on a war footing amid speculation that a mass mobilisation is on the cards to bolster his flagging war effort.
‘Such a victory is possible with the full solidarity of the whole country with the army, the mobilisation of the state economy.' Industry must be immediately forced to serve military objectives, he said. ‘This must be done immediately and quickly, he said.
Rogozin's statements came as the final dress rehearsal for tomorrow's Victory Day parade in Moscow saw nuclear weapons wheeled through the Red Square just metres away from the Kremlin.
Using a word that Putin has banned in relation to Ukraine - 'war' - he said: 'This is a war for the truth - and the right of Russia to exist as a single and independent state.'
He insisted: 'The very existence of a Ukraine separate from Russia will inevitably turn it into anti-Russia and a springboard of the West for aggression against our people.
‘That is why what we call a Special Military Operation goes far beyond its original meaning and geography.'
He did not say which other territory Putin was eyeing beyond Ukraine.
But he claimed NATO was engaged in a proxy war using Ukrainian soldiers to fight without putting their own forces in harm's way. ‘The armed forces of Ukraine are expendable cannon fodder for NATO," he said.
‘They are only operators trained by NATO instructors who push the levers and buttons of NATO weapons." ... https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 472/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
He said: 'We are liberating Ukraine from NATO occupation and pushing the worst enemy away from our western borders.'
Rogozin's blast against the West and Ukraine came after he highlighted that British YouTuber Benjamin Rich, who has over 3.5million subscribers, was detained at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan - implying he might have been spying. ...
The RS-24 Yars ballistic missile - which experts believe can can carry up to 10 warheads - was seen taking pride and joy as it was driven past rows of armed guards on a green 16-wheeler vehicle on Saturday.
At 1:32 pm, @ The problem with Putin's nuclear deterrence against the West stopping his invasions said...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwvY6Tm_FqQ
General Wesley Clark (NATO Supreme commander, retired) states that if Putin uses 4-5 tactical nuclear weapons against the West's proxy war in Ukraine, that should be considered as another way of killing people requiring a response:
"We can't just say that if we launch a couple of tactical nuclear weapons, that would 'change international relations!' YES IT WOULD, BUT IT WOULD CHANGE IT AGAINST RUSSIA, NOT AGAINST US. The one thing that would change it against us would be if we jump back when and if he uses such a weapon!"
At 1:53 pm, B Anonymous said...
The neutron dose per kiloton at 1 km from a W79 neutron bomb is over 2,000 times greater than that per kiloton from the low yield option on a B61, according to the 1984 revision of DNA-EM-1, so you can't just proclaim that the lowest yield dial-a-yield setting on a strategic warhead is a substitute for dedicated tactical nuclear weapons.
There's a sketch in this post of a "Russian doll" system where you use an entire two-stage thermonuclar weapon as a "primary" stage inside a bigger two-stage thermonuclear weapon, and so on, to create a very large device with a a minimum amount of plutonium. Why not go the other way, start with 100 kiloton two stage weapon, but have the "primary" stage composed of a Russian doll of ever smaller two stage weapons, until you get down to the size of tiny 1mm diameter ICF fusion that can be ignited by a high powered laser pulse, and set up a laser to do that, powered by a cable EMP from an external magnetic flux compression high explosive system, or simply use a linear implosion chemical explosive system to crush a large piezo electric crystal (wired up to a laser, pointing a beam through a tiny 1 mm hole in the Russian doll weapon casings towards the 1mm diameter ICF fusion capsule) to get a 100% clean 100 kt fusion weapon?
At 2:51 pm, B nige said...
Achieving a 100% clean fusion device is still a Holy Grail of physics. I'd agree that the way to go is to start with a capsule the size of a dime, using energy channelled into it.
This can indeed be done by lasers and possibly electromagnets (to compress the D + T plasma created by the laser, if the driver energy is not an appropriately shaped ablative x-ray pulse), powered perhaps by the external implosive detonation of 10 kg of TNT with an efficient magnetic flux compression or piezo electric crystal compression system to turn that into an electric power pulse to drive the laser etc, to set off a tiny fusion capsule.
This would be the innermost kindling in a Russian doll, with successive stages to multiply up the yield it up to whatever number of kilotons or megatons is required. What's interesting is, there's a declassified paper by Edward Teller from the early 50s arguing precisely for using magnetic flux compression of D+T plasma to set off a clean bomb! It really seems, as in the case of Nuckolls, that key fusion bomb ideas got converted into nonsense peaceful fusion power programs, that eventually turned back into bomb research when nuclear testing was stopped in the 90s. Teller's clan bomb idea came before magnetic flux compression devices were perfected to couple chemical explosive energy into an cable, which could then be used to power electromagnets and lasers to set off D+T fusion in a warhead. So it never took off!
Clean nuclear fusion explosives will be the perfect way to deter invasions by dictators.
On the general problem of new ideas in secret physics, I remember a general physics discussion at a university decades ago concerning neutron initiators, centering on alpha sources that produce neutrons when the alpha particles strike beryllium. Why use polonium-210?
Why not have no polonium-210, but just a spiked ball of beryllium overed in tissue paper in the middle of a hollow plutonium-239 shell. Plutonium-239 has a specific activity of 63 alpha curies per kilogram, similar to the 50 curies of polonium-210 traditionally used in early implosion weapons! The tissue paper absorbs stops alpha particles from hitting beryllium and pre-detonating the weapon. The implosive compression mixes the spiked beryllium core with plutonium, releasing neutrons.
The traditional rationale for using Polonium-210 (with its problem of only 138 days half life, meaning you need to replace the initiator in the core of the weapon every few months, as opposed to 24,400 years half life for Pu-239 alpha source!) was that due to the shorter half life, its specific activity of 4,500,000 curies/kg is way higher than plutonium-239's 63 curies/kg. So since alpha particles are stopped by only a thin layer (a surface source), it's more efficient to have a tin layer or foil of polonium-239 than a volume of plutonium-239, in which most of the alpha-particles will be self absorbed.
But if you can get efficient mixing of beryllium and a mass of plutonium, by say taylor instability, you can achieve the same result. The small difference in alpha particle energy is not a problem. If you do this, you've got a very neat advance: you don't need an external neutron source, you don't need any polonium-210. You just use efficient mixing of lkg or more of plutonium with beryllium, to get a neutron source. Now you can argue that mixing beryllium with plutonium won't work because the beryllium will absorb some neutrons and hinder the chain reaction, but you don't actually need to use much beryllium, and the beryllium tends to act as a neutron reflector anyway, not as an absorber.
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
Related to this, is the question as to whether beryllium shells can be used on BOTH inner and outer surfaces of a hollow (thin shell) plutonium core? Presumably that will reduce the critical mass needed more than just having a beryllium shell outside the hollow beryllium core. As with everything in physics, calculations plus confirmation by experimental tests are needed to make real progress.
At 10:58 pm, & https://web. archive. org/web/*/http:/www.nnsa. energy.gov/sites/default/files/nnsa/foiareadingroom/* said...
Many of the declassified American NNSA FOIA documents previously held on http://www.nnsa.energy.gov/sites/default/files/nnsa/foiareadingroom/ are held as PDF files on the Wayback Machine (simply click my name):
https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.nnsa.energy.gov/sites/default/files/nnsa/foiareadingroom/*
At 7:18 pm, B Anonymous said...
Regarding a portable/deliverable device that starts fusion without an original fission stage, there could be another huge advantage besides not creating fallout. (Fallout can already be mitigated at least partially by air bursting even as low as 100 ft for 1 kt.)
Anyway, as far as material costs, I get the impression that a near-critical mass of fissile material is the bulk of the cost and the limiting resource, for any device below a few tens of MT. So long as the pure fusion “trigger” doesn’t require any super expensive material or components you would get rid of the single biggest impediment to mass producing warheads.
Instead of something like 10-20 mol of Pu-239- you could probably get away with | mol or even 100mmol of Tritium for the first stage and then lithium deuteride after that?
The advantage would be obvious if you were the government of a small country like Ukraine/Taiwan/South Korea and needed to create 10,000+ tiny warheads quickly to deter an invasion.
Regarding the other ideas, I’m not convinced that using a reflective material in the inside of a hollow fissile sphere would have a good effect. The only neutrons that would be reflected would be ones that were already headed towards the other side of the sphere, where they would already encounter fissile material and the outer reflector. Also it would interfere with the implosion if the thickness were too great.
At 7:22 pm, B Anonymous said...
One more crazy idea (I’m not a nuclear engineer so it’s possibly bunk.)
To create a large promo gamma output (eg to generate El EMP) wouldn’t the best design be a “gun type” device with a massive booster? The gun design limits the amount of shielding material on at least one side, and, say, a combination of a D-T gas booster and maybe a kilo of enriched UD3 or tens of grams of liquified deuterium at the center of the assembled core would (I imagine) greatly increase the yield without splitting it into two pulses.
At 8:00 am, 8 Andy said...
"In other words, if you decide to credibly target enemy nuclear weapons (a very costly strategy in terms of the number of W88 warheads per silo for any significant chance of damaging a >7000psi peak overpressure-requiring SS-18 missile silo, which are about as well protected as the concrete and steel around most nuclear power reactor cores), your targetting policy will encourage the enemy to launch first, to save their missiles from being taken out! So using nuclear weapons to target other nuclear weapons in hardened silos (or hidden in the sea in submarines!), apart from being extremely inefficient and costly in terms of your stockpile, is also a policy that provokes the risk of enemy "launch on warning" crisis instability because you are, if "successful", removing the enemy's protected second strike retaliation capability, and once the second strike option is gone, they are pushed back into the old first-strike aka launch-on-warning policy, which is extremely dangerous if their radar operators mistake some third party's missile testing for a launch against them, etc., etc."
It would be possible in principle to have a safe first-strike aka "launch on warning" policy, by sending the final detonation authorization code to the missile AFTER it has been launched. For example, you could fire the ICBM into a low earth orbit to get it out of a vulnerable silo when an enemy first-strike is SUSPECTED, and then leave it in orbit (or enroute to target, if you can confirm an enemy attack within the 25 minutes delivery time).
When you get confirmation that the enemy has really attacked you (for instance, by detecting with your AWDREY - atomic weapon detection, recognition and estimation of yield - system, the EMP signature and corresponding flash signature for similar height of burst and yield, of incoming warheads), then you can send the final "go" code to your missiles to explode with a specific yield and burst height over the enemy.
By default, your weapons might be set to detonate at high altitude and minimal yield over enemy territory (to prevent any falling debris), and as soon as you know the kind of attack the enemy is launching on you, your computers can transmit a final decision to the in-flight ICBM or SLBM instructing it to detonate with a yield option and burst height option corresponding to the enemy strikes detected in your own country, as a "tailored" tit-for-tat none-escalating "response". This would make the deterrent perfectly safe.
At 8:14 am, ® nige said... Andy: one problem with what you write is that the enemy could, for example, try to transmit a "recall" or "self-destruct" or "detonate with
low yield" instruction to your warheads, or simply use high-power RF "jamming" to prevent your computer from communicating with your missiles after launch. Another problem is that orbital warheads are vulnerable to x-rays from 5 megaton W71 Spartan ABM
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
warheads. (Contrary to all the anti-nuclear propaganda about city targets, the primary targets in WWIII are actually space based assets, enemy spy satellites and GPS satellites, because they can be used to acquire locations for vulnerable mobile targets and to ensure accurate missile delivery to those targets without the errors inherent in using mechanical gyroscopic compasses. So we retain nuclear bomber aircraft for use in WWII when satellite target acquisition data and GPS guidance is no longer available.)
At 8:30 am, @ Andy said...
That also applies to nuclear submarines, when considered in the role of orbital ICMB warheads (when at sea): a. In peacetime, we send out submarines loaded with nuclear armed SLBMs.
b. The guys in the subs can't fire them without authority sent by radio, which needs to be ELF for any transmission through coducting salt water if the sub is really hidden in the sea (underwater below periscope antenna depth).
c. By your argument against recall/self-destruct of ICBMs after launch due to issues over radio jamming by the enemy, our own SLBMs are similarly vulnerable - the enemy could jam the the frequencies we need to use to send instructions to the subs to fire SLBMs!
The "jamming" process consists of raising the RF background "noise" level to ensure a sufficiently high noise/signal ratio that no signal can be detected. All the enemy needs to do, when launching a surprise attack, is to tail our subs from their bases with drones that have a large ELF transmitter which can be turned on remotely near the subs when the enemy decides to launch a first strike. That will prevent our subs receiving or transmitting data, and will therefore totally negate their nuclear deterrent role.
At 9:50 am, & Donna said...
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/05/15/putin-russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons/967 1556002/
"Joseph Cirincione, a former president of nuclear nonproliferation think tank Ploughshares, said there's been a taboo on the use of nuclear weapons since the U.S. detonated two atomic bombs over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, a move that killed at least 200,000 people instantly, contributed to Japan's unconditional surrender and helped end World War II. The U.S. remains the only country in the world that's detonated a nuclear weapon against an enemy.
""Some people have tried to argue that we could use nuclear weapons with a (relatively) low (explosive) yield. What they don't factor in is that you're creating explosions hotter than the surface of the sun, mega-fires and radiation that has an immediate high intensity and then lingers for a really long time," said Cirincione. ...
"Russian Security Council deputy head Dmitry Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel on Thursday that it was NATO countries supplying Ukraine with weapons, not Russia, that was increasing the "risk of turning (the conflict) into a full-fledged nuclear war." ... Metaculus estimates the risk of a full-scale nuclear exchange in 2022 between the U.S. and Russia at 0.35%, which is similar to the annual risk during the Cold War..."
So that's simple. By claiming falsely that 1.1 kt W79 low yield tactical enhanced neutron weapons detonated over Russian tanks in border areas will cause "mega-fires and radiation that has an immediate high intensity and then lingers for a really long time", Cirincione has proved we're all safe from nuclear war without needing tactical nuclear deterrence. Nice one.
Next up, Cirincione will work out that Russian nuclear warheads are transported by flying pink elephants that can't really get airborne, so we're really safe and can disarm to ensure world peace. What this report ignores is that the source of the risk assessment states that Russia is more likely to set offa NON-LETHAL nuclear weapon as a demonstration or "test" to NATO to force it into appeasement of Russia (like Hitler's luftwaffe bombing of Spain, and invasions which at first worked to deter the West from getting in his way):
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10439/russia-ukraine-conflict-forecasting-nuclear-risk-in-2022/ "Key takeaways ...
"A nuclear test conducted by Russia is estimated to be more likely (~7%) than a nuclear detonation that causes fatalities, as it could achieve some of the intended psychological effects while reducing the risk of NATO retaliation. ... forecasters believe there is a considerable probability (30%) that Russia will decide to move nuclear warheads to Belarus. ..."
On blast reduction by buildings, the DTRA Dispatch article you quoted in a post years ago claimed that buildings can be treated as rigid (non-energy absorbing) because they are over 1000 times denser than a blast wave. Bad physics! (By analogy, your eardrum is over 1000 times denser than a blast wave, so it doesn't oscillate and you can't hear sound, according to DTRA crap.)
At 10:17 am, @ Anonymous said...
"On blast reduction by buildings, the DTRA Dispatch article you quoted in a post years ago claimed that buildings can be treated as rigid (non-energy absorbing) because they are over 1000 times denser than a blast wave. Bad physics! (By analogy, your eardrum is over 1000 times denser than a blast wave, so it doesn't oscillate and you can't hear sound, according to DTRA crap.)"
Consider a ship's sail when it picks up energy from the wind (dynamic pressure, in blast wave terms). The DTRA Dispatch article's claim that a building is effectively "rigid" and so picks up hardly energy from the (blast) wind is debunked by considering wind (dynamic) pressure induced motion effects which have nothing to do with the relative density of the shock front compared to the building. The amount of energy picked up is given by Newton as E = F.x, where force F = P.A, where P is dynamic pressure and A is area, and x is the amount of displacement induced. There's no density of the building in these equations!
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 475/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
At 9:31 pm, & Russian state TV says nuclear weapons will be deployed if Sweden or Finland join NATO said...
Russian state TV says nuclear weapons will be deployed if Sweden or Finland join NATO
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/russian-state-tv-says-no-choice-but-to-deploy-nuclear-weapons-if-nato-bases-appear-in-finland-or- sweden/294756
Russian state TV says ‘no choice but to deploy nuclear weapons' if NATO bases appear in Finland or Sweden Both Sweden and Finland have confirmed plans to join the alliance as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues Aden-Jay Wood
DIGITAL PRODUCER
PUBLISHED Monday 16 May 2022 - 08:13
Russian state television has warned there will be “no choice but to deploy nuclear weapons” if NATO bases appear in Sweden and Finland.
Sweden and Finland have both confirmed plans to join the alliance in the wake of Russias invasion of Ukraine. ...
According to journalist Steve Rosenberg, one Russian state television channel said: “Their official reason is fear. But they’ll have more fear in NATO.
“When NATO bases appear in Sweden & Finland, Russia will have no choice but to neutralise the imbalance & new threat by deploying tactical nuclear weapons.”
At 4:20 pm, & The trouble with unfashionable truth said... How physics becomes corrupt, time after time:
"The QIT/QG business seems to be yet another example of the pathological sociology that has afflicted HEP/fundamental theory for decades now. Based on a minor intriguing result, the entire field orients itself around a very speculative idea almost sure to not work out. There are endless promotional talks, little realistic evaluation of whether the idea is going anywhere. Grants, conferences, talk invitations, awards, jobs, articles in the press, etc. all start flowing to those who seem to be working on the hot idea. If you’re a young researcher you’re in a really ugly position: to get a job you should work on the hot idea, even if it’s not going anywhere and already has too many people doing it. This pattern just goes on and on."
- peter Woit, https://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=12868#comment-240697
The trouble with unfashionable truth
At 4:32 pm, B nige said...
Indeed! The world may obey some kind of "logic", but that is quite different from the kind of "logic" the Marxist or other loons who infiltrate the media want to promote, i.e. they want to promote myths. The readers love fairy tales, so it's a match made in heaven.
A good empirical rule-of-thumb for the resulting relationship between publicity achieved, A, as a result of research and development effort, E, is
A~ EM}
In other words, the more effort put into marketing unorthodox ideas, the more intensely the mainstream lying counter-effort is to censor out the facts. This is precisely what happened with the Nazis luftwaffe use of exaggerations of fire/gas bombs in the 1930s. It's significant that the veil of secrecy on the efficiency of countermeasures was never removed completely: after the war when WWII shelters were tested at British nuclear weapon tests in the 1950s, the reports were Secret, just as they had been for gas masks during the 1920s-1930s appeasement era, when lies were allowed to circulate in the popular media and the government sat on piles of secret reports that would debunk them, but used secrecy to prevent publication. They NEVER learn.
At 7:26 am, & Bulletin of Atomic Scientists traitors to humanity debunked said...
The following article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists shows how these guys are still provoking war by issuing dangerously lying propaganda.
https://thebulletin. org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-is-undermining-strategic-stability-the-burst-height-compensating- super-fuze/
How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuze
By Hans M. Kristensen (director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) in Washington, DC), Matthew McKinzie (director of the Nuclear Program of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) in Washington, DC), Theodore A. Postol (professor emeritus of science, technology, and national security policy at MIT), March 1, 2017
This article, lyingly and ignorantly attacking credible deterrence of invasions like the recent Ukrainian invasion (not to mention Belgium 1914, Poland 1939; note that "professor" shit Postol lies repeatedly about thermal radiation causing fires in Hiroshima, when in fact the
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 476/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
hiroshima firestorm was instead caused provably from Strategic Bombing Survey secret report evidence by the overturned obsolete charcoal braziers in bamboo and paper screen wood houses, unlike modern concrete buildings), ends by uncritically quoting lies from President Putin, polonium-210 poisoner of 2006, invader of Crimea in 2014, Novochok poisoner of critics, and mass-murderer of Ukrainian kids:
"We end this article with quotes from Vladimir Putin, talking impromptu to a group of journalists during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2016. His unrehearsed remarks are clear and candid predictors of how he will assess the implications of the super-fuze:
No matter what we said to our American partners [to curb the production of weaponry], they refused to cooperate with us, they rejected our offers, and continue to do their own thing.
... They rejected everything we had to offer:
... the Iranian threat does not exist, but missile defense systems are continuing to be positioned...
That means we were right when we said that they are lying to us.
Their reasons were not genuine, in reference to the “Iranian nuclear threat.”
Your people [the populations of the Western alliance] ... do not feel a sense of the impending danger—this is what worries me. A missile defense system is one element of the whole system of offensive military potential.
It works as part of a whole that includes offensive missile launchers.
One complex blocks, the other launches high precision weapons, the third blocks a potential nuclear strike, and the fourth sends out its own nuclear weapon in response.
This is all designed to be part of one system. I dont know how this is all going to end. What I do know is that we will need to defend ourselves."
Yeah right. You can expect those authors to get Nobel Peace Prizes and Knighthoods, just like Sir Norman Angell in the 1930s, who exaggerated gas bombs and quoted Adolf Hitler saying precisely the same stuff (albeit in German!) to Putin. The more people get mass murdered by their opposition to credible deterrence of invasions, the more publicity and praise they get from the mad "journalists" who trive on lying propaganda today, just as their predecessors did in 1913 and 1938! Utterly pathetic.
At 7:28 am, B nige said...
That's enough sarcasm, thank you.
At 12:03 am, @ https:/www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/daily/aug99/arzamas3 1.htm said...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/daily/aug99/arzamas3 | .htm
The original Soviet atomic bomb
The museum at Arzamas includes this mock-up of the original Soviet atomic bomb, the RDS-1, tested in August 1949. (David Hoffman — The Washington Post)
By David Hoffman
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, August 31, 1999; Page Al
SAROV, Russia—The train rolls slowly past a double barbed wire fence and arrives inside a citadel of secrecy, Arzamas-16, a closed nuclear city long omitted from official maps and the birthplace of the Soviet atomic bomb. ...
... Russia's economic decline has devastated its conventional, or nonnuclear forces. It does not possess the kind of high-precision weapons used by NATO ... so Russia's military and political leadership has concluded it must rely, at least for the foreseeable future, on the nuclear shield ... This includes not only continent-spanning, nuclear-armed missiles, but also thousands of short-range tactical nuclear weapons.
Although details remain secret, there appears to be a drive among some weapons designers to persuade Russia's leadership to build a new generation of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons for use on a battlefield, which could be Russia's answer to its lack of high-precision conventional weapons. President Boris Yeltsin chaired a meeting of the Kremlin security council in April that discussed the issue, but what was decided, if anything, has not been made public.
A leading voice for building such new weapons has been Viktor Mikhailov, the hawkish former minister of atomic energy and now first deputy minister and chairman of the Science Council. In the text of remarks for the commemoration here, Mikhailov said that a "new generation" of low-yield nuclear weapons "will have particular significance for the world." He said there should be no doubt that "this weapon can really be used in case of any large-scale military conflict."
In a brief interview, Mikhailov added: "Nuclear weapons are devaluing any conventional weapons, including the weapons that were used in Yugoslavia, the new ones. Nuclear weapons are much more powerful, a deciding factor thousands of times higher than any other. I am not saying millions of times, but thousands of times." When asked if Russia is developing such weapons, he was evasive, saying that
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 477/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
scientists here "have their hand on the pulse." ...
Ilkayev added, however, that maintaining tactical nuclear weapons is an important part of Russia's nuclear deterrent. "Tactical nuclear weapons -- operative tactical nuclear weapons -- are required for Russia. Our borders are enormous. Tactical nuclear weapons should not be seen as a field weapon, but as a weapon of deterrence of major international conflicts," he said, adding that rather than developing new warheads, the laboratories are focusing on how to extend the service life of those already deployed.
... the government can no longer afford such a large nuclear weapons design complex, which includes a second laboratory, Chelyabinsk- 70, now known as Snezhinsk. In 1998, a plan was adopted to slash the number of defense workers in all the closed cities from 75,000 to 40,000 by the year 2005. At the nuclear design center here, there are currently about 13,000 workers, including 7,000 scientists, about half the levels of the mid-1980s. ...
{t 12:41 am, Bnige said...
I've included info and links to article by the designer, to this post about the development of the "Melon", the first Russian linear implosion (two point detonation) device as a tactical nuclear weapon canon shell in the 1950s. It's clear from the Russian page on the history of their external and internal initiators that they innovated and tried some tricks not used by America. That's what's so interesting and important.
We shouldn't be so concerned about their carbon copies of Western systems based on spying, but on their innovations. The quotation President kennedy tape-recorded in 1962, quoted in the Journal of Cold War Studies article about the Ripple II thermonuclear warhead design by Nuckolls, where USAEC Chair Seaborg and others present pour cold water on Russian nuclear warhead designs, is toxic because when other scientists are doing things you have not investigated in detail or tested, you can't safely dismiss them like that.
Sometimes crazy sounding ideas are the way to go. Teller never admitted failure on the 1946 Superbomb, he admitted it was never tested by the USA because calculations showed it would fizzle out fast (as the burning wave propagated along the uncompressed tube), but he didn't entirely trust those calculations. He felt it should have been tested to gain knowledge. Sometimes it's worth taking the gamble even when theory condemns the idea, because the theory is never complete and there may be some factors your computer code ignored. The classic example of this is that for a long while, aerodynamics (based on a theory of rigid wings supposedly disproved bumble bee flight. However, when eventually the theory (and the computer speeds) improved enough to model flexible wings instead of assuming they were rigid as an approximation, the theory and reality were reconciled.
There's also a deeper issue that comes into play here. The standard approach to trying to test fundamental physics theories is pretty much the way nuclear weapons are designed: first people must calculate a prediction for a theoretical system, then they test it.
The flaw here is that if there is something wrong with your theory, you may NEVER get to test many promising designs. Teller himself (before 1951!) had just such a flawed theoretical "no-go theorem" where he ignored the correct scaling law for radiation losses when fusion fuel is compressed. His "mathematical theory" (which was just plain wrong in one detail that was hard for him or others to spot in pages or formulae) then informed the entire Los Alamos community that you don't need to bother abuot compression, because it has no effect on the ratio of radiation loss to energy production!
It took a long while for that to be corrected. Complex theories can be dangerous if they can't be quickly checked for gross errors by order- of-magnitude back-of-the-envelope sums. People need to get physical understanding of what is really going on, to find errors. The best every example is Eugene Wigner, the physics Nobel Laureate and lonely civil defense proponent, crying when the Hanford engineers of the Manhattan project arbitarily made his design for the plutonium reactors bigger than his calculations specified, to allow for error!
He bitterly complained that they didn't know how precise his calculations and his data were, and that the whole damn system had been tested without problem on a small scale in the first nuclear reactor, Chicago Pile CP-1. But he simply omitted the neutron-absorbing fission products that build up some hours after operation at high power, shutting the reactor down. Xenon-135 has a cross-section of over 2 MILLION barns for thermal neutrons in a reactor! Wigner was wrong, and the Hanford engineers were right. Their increased size allowed an increase in power to compensate for the loss of neutrons. He would have delayed Nagasaki and the end of WWII if they listened to him! Trust a theory after verification, to the extent of the verification only...
At 9:39 am, @ Anonymous said...
have you seen Kate Pyne's 2016 King's College London PhD thesis, "The history of Thermonuclear Warhead Principles in the UK"?
At 10:03 am, @ nige said...
No! Dr Pyne became AWE technical historian in 1996 and co-authored Lorna Arnold's 2001 technically excellent "Britain and the H- Bomb" in which it is revealed that the first two 1957 British two-stage (spherical secondary) H-bombs failed to achieve full yield because (1) they both, in their secondaries, used 27 thin (sub-millimetre thickness for the thinnest shells) layers of alternating U235, Li6D, and U238 (basically, Teller's original "Alarm Clock" core, except using implosion from an external x-ray releasing primary, rather than the weaker compression chemical implosion around the Alarm Clock core) which mixed causing failure, due to Taylor instability, owing to density differences in the different layers. The second 2-stage British shot (Purple Granite) was the same as the first (Short Granite), but with the secondary stage moved further away from the primary stage (reducing x-ray energy density delivery, and REDUCING yield!), so was more of a failure than the first attempt.
Dr Corner is quoted (appendix 3) saying that Grapple Y used "considerably less enriched lithium", and that the Purple Granite failure was the result of a "last minute attempt to improve it by eye". As a result, the third and successful two-stage thermonuclear British test of 1957 used "the very simplest possible type" of spherical secondary stage (three layers only in the smaller Short Granite case (with the same primary): U235 core surrounded by Li6D and then U238 ablator/pusher), and at that time they had an IBM704 computer to speed up calculations, showing that this secondary would be have its density compressed by a factor of 25. The Russian reports on RDS-37 also show it used a similarly simplified 3-layer spherical secondary stage (not the 27 layers of the original Teller Alarm Clock!)
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 478/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. At 6:48 pm, @ Anonymous said...
Lorna Arnold's first book, A Very Special Relationship (1st edition 1987, not the revised edition which omits/changes the photos given in the 1st edition) is also worth reading. The book title weirdly refers to the UK's friendship with Uncle Sam, although her book is ostensibly about the 50s UK tests in AUSTRALIA, about UK tests later at the Nevada Test Site USA! She also gives photos of targets pre-shot in the 1987 edition, and photos of targets post shot in the revised 2nd edition. She makes no effort to summarise and analyse the declassified AWRE nuclar test reports, apart from a brief mention (without the results) of measurements of fallout on aircraft flying through mushroom clouds. Pretty boring. But at lease she states that the 1952 Hurricane near surface burst in the ship the Plym was anchored in 40 feet water depth, with the bomb middle 9 feet below the waterline or 31 feet above the water bottom at Monte Bello.
BTW, here is President Joe Biden autocue reading comedy act to make President Putin laugh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UPGkrKQDIE
If Uncle Joe can't even remember how to read autocue correctly, what hope of remembering the nuclear go codes from the "biscuit" his keepers have in the nuclear briefcase when they're needed?
At 7:01 pm, B nige said...
Thanks for the link.
Acutally, for once I think it's actually good news at last that the man does keep precisely to script now, otherwise he might start WWIII by accident next time Putin blows up a hospital full of kids in Ukraine with cluster bombs. Good news too that the Boris buffoon has decided to resign (under pressure) in the UK. He messed up the UK covid response (which should have been immediate isolation - shutting down public transport, tubes and airports if not providing essential travellers with EFFICIENT respirators to eliminate not reduce the spread of the pandemic, as we blogged about in advance of disaster two posts ago).
Providing ever more conventional weapons to Ukraine to fight a nuclear-armed Russia isn't necessarily going to do more than escalate a limited war into a major war, running up immense destruction and casualties along the way. Deterrence was the proven option in the Ist cold war, ignored today by bluffers and gormless narcissists masquerading as leaders of the free world. They can't lead their way out of a paper bag.
Just a pity they won't credibly deter Putin and other dictators. The nuclear weapons people in the military and secret establishments are equally to blame with the sadistic lying "disarmers", for not publishing the truth. But I have too many personal family probs at the moment to try to do more than this blog.
At 7:07 pm, ® nige said...
Also, the probability that Uncle Joe will need to remember his "biscuit" nuclear launch codes is zero. He would never use nuclear weapons, he wants to disarm to guarantee security/peace. Exactly what Stanley Baldwin, Neville Chamberlain, Norman Angell, George Lansbury, and other misguided charlatans believed in the 1930s, and which Churchill failed to debunk (events debunked the disarmers, not Churchill's drunken, slurred, long-winded rhetoric). So don't worry about Biden's memory. Why do you think the UK and France have independent nuclear deterrents instead of relying on Sleepy Joe?
(t 7:20 am, B nige said...
Regarding the revolutionary use of plastic foams inside the British Grapple devices, Ken Johnson and Professor Bryan Taylor, designer of Britain's first successful thermonuclear bomb, revealed why plastic foam was used for radiation coupling in the first successful (1.8 megatons) full scale thermonuclear British test of 1957, drawing sketches on a TV programme of the bomb to demonstrate what was being done. Plastic foams filling the entire x-ray radiation channel, allowed isotropic (uniform from all directions) ablation of the pusher around the spherical fusion stage, which would be harder to achieve by x-ray mirrors than was the case for the simpler cylindrical geometry of the fusion stage used by Teller in Mike. See the detailed review of the TV programon BBC4 (3 May 2017), "Britain's Nuclear Bomb: The Inside Story", in the earlier post,
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2017/03/
"... Professor Bryan Taylor is then filmed taking a full two minutes (47-49 minutes in the 59 minutes film) explaining precisely why low density plastic foam was used to fill the radiation channel in the first fully successful, 1.8 megaton, British thermonuclear test of 1957:
"So we end up with something like this [see screenshot above]. There's an outer case in which there is a primary (a fission weapon) generally known as a Tom, and a secondary (the thermonuclear material), generally known as Dick. And the object is to get the [X-ray] radiation from the primary to surround Dick rather uniformly, so that it's compressed to a tight focus at the centre, where the temperature will rise and the thermonuclear reaction will start [after lithium is split by neutrons to give tritium].
"The question was, 'is it possible to get the radiation from the radiation from the trigger, Tom, to completely surround the secondary, Dick, in a more or less uniform fashion, before the radiation or the mechanical pressure [the debris shock wave from the exploding fission stage] has blown the whole thing apart? And to do this, the idea was we'd fill the space between Tom and Dick with a very low density material [like polystyrene], through which the [X-ray] radiation would pass rather rapidly. And to stop it all escaping and blowing everything apart, one makes the case of material of high electron density [uranium, or lead, a high-Z element], through which the radiation goes much more slowly. And the key to everything is, 'are these two speeds sufficiently different that it will do what one wants it to do?" ..."
Britain needed plastic foam to ensure that the spherical fusion stage in its first thermonuclear weapons was uniformly compressed by X- rays. America didn't need do this in its first thermonuclear weapons, because it used a cylindrical shaped fusion charge, which did not suffer from the same problems of requiring such uniform compression: obviously, the compression of a cylinder needs to be symmetric in
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 479/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
two dimensions only, not three which is the case for the British sphere. As Teller and Ulam's famous 9 March 1951 hydrogen bomb design report, LAMS-1225, states on page 19:
"In fact, the essential parts of the design do not depend sensitively on complicated shapes and the necessary planning is, therefore, comparatively simple."
The American use of plastic foam in weapons with cylindrical stages, is entirely different: a layer of polystyrene is placed on the inside of the outer casing to act as a radiation mirror, re-radiating some X-ray energy back on the cylindrical metal pusher/ablation blanket surrounding the fusion fuel. (It also stops dense metal plasma from the casing being ablated inward and interferring with the X-ray flow in the radiation channel.)
At 1:10 pm, B Anonymous said...
Can I get this straight, please? The foam filling ionizes into a plasma of ions and electrons, which scatter 1 keV x-rays multiple times, allowing them to diffuse around the secondary stage and deliver energy more isotropically (equally on all sides) than you could get from reflective mirroring by the inside of a small weapon casing, which would cause anisotropic compression of a spherical secondary due to shadowing by the secondary itself of the its own side, furthest from the primary stage?
At 1:42 pm, Bnhige said...
This is all declassified. Even Glasstone and Dolan discuss the basic formula for the short mean free path of x-rays from nuclear weapons in the unclassified Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 1977, and Glasstone had written a classified version earlier in his secret Introduction to Nuclear Weapons (thermonuclear weapon design data). Dolan in the declassified 1972 DNA-EM-1, Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons, chapter on Introduction to Damage Criteria, gives equations, graphs, and tables of data on the x-ray ablative blowoffs of various pusher materials, allowing you to see what secondary implosion forces are generated, also more data on x-ray radiation transit in materials of various densities, etc. But this is really basic, fundamental physics. It's absurd to say there are any real secrets of principle.
The only secrets or unknowns for the public are detailed design specifics, but even then as you can see in this post, there are unclassified publications giving the specific densities of fogbank x-ray reradiating plasma generators, the designs of beryllium ablators, gold x-ray channel mirrors, and so on. It seems the end of testing three decades ago, the whole field of weapon design has degenerated into arrogant hubris, with designers talking crap they don't understand about the effects of nuclear weapons, like loony preachers who think their secrets are sacred scriptures. The old rule that what doesn't progress, degenerates, has been forgotten. If we had another real arms race with Putin, we would win. But today, there is no longer the old Cold War "no winners in nuclear war" in pacifist ideology; it's been replaced by a new mantra: "dictatorships must be allowed to win even in peacetime!" In other words, deterrence is the tool of Putin, not freedom. We're facing a very hard time, maybe a big war. As for WWII, the longer we put off the fight, the bigger the war.
At 9:32 am, B Anonymous said...
"... (Not shown in the sketch is a thick neutron shield cylinder enclosing the entire secondary stage to reduce its vulnerability to predetonation by neutrons from defensive nuclear warheads from the Russian ABM system. When such a U238 neutron shield shell is shown in diagrams, it is usually misinterpreted as some sort of tamper or reflector to help the reaction! In addition, the primary and secondary stages are simplified. ..."
Oralloy (enriched U-235) loaded secondaries for compact high yield MIRV warheads also need neutron shielding when several of them
are packed together in a missile warhead, or it is bringing several subcritical masses of fissile material close together with no neutron shield (e.g. radiation, heat, pre-detonation risks, etc., purely from MIRV warheads proximity in the missile nose).
At 11:30 am, & Trump is for peace not appeasement and war said...
Left wing propaganda debunked for a change by Associated press: https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-trump-fundraising-email-nuke-codes-florida-search-468453367102
Trump didn’t send fundraising email about ‘nuke codes’ By ANGELO FICHERA
Trump spokeswoman Liz Harrington confirmed in an email to The Associated Press that the version circulating online is fabricated. “This is totally fake,” Harrington said. She also forwarded the actual Tuesday email with the same subject line. The false claim is spreading amid unfolding news about the search at Mar-a-Lago.
This is part of AP’s effort to address widely shared misinformation, including work with outside companies and organizations to add factual context to misleading content that is circulating online.
At 9:08 am, © nige said...
LLNL has achieved a clean nuclear fusion yield of 1.3 MJ in nanoseconds without a fission explosion: "The record shot was a major scientific advance in fusion research, which establishes that fusion ignition in the lab is possible at NIF," said Omar Hurricane, chief scientist for LLNL's inertial confinement fusion program. - https://www.IInl.gov/news/three-peer-reviewed-papers-highlight-scientific- results-national-ignition-facility-record
"This three-part image shows the cut-away characteristic target geometry (a) that includes a gold-lined depleted uranium hohlraum surrounding an HDC capsule with some features labeled. The capsule, ~2 mm in diameter, at the center of the ~1 cm height hohlraum,
occupies a small fraction of the volume. Laser beams enter the target at the top and bottom apertures, called laser entrance holes."
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 480/510
11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations.
This laser-induced fusion reaction can be used as the effective "clean primary" to replace a fission primary in a multi-staged Li6D fusion bomb, with the main charges similar to those in the 1956 Redwing Navajo 4.5 megaton 95% clean bomb successfully tested at Bikini Atoll, but this time with a laser and a small fusion capsule to replace the fission primary, and other intermediate fusion capsules of incrementally increasing size in a "Russian doll" configuration as shown in this blog post.
Note that the lasers can be fired by capacitor banks charged up by HV inverter powered by a battery, or by an explosively compressed large piezo-electric crystal, or even a diesel generator, or even (for static use in nuclear testing) rectified mains electric power (via a distant cut-out isolator switch to prevent EMP entering the mains once the bomb detonates). See illustrations in this blog post for the basic idea, https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg VMEv43JIuqOZutUhsjtgCTe_j30VE7kh4d YilEa5 PZ- Igwl2uiaG_n_ZAz82xfjAkmgAezd7NcaqjDMOPCs_aTrSnMPqyWkkK Yr-
IcTevVaK XQKzBv8dtH6iZ7sqN9b9HS4hc7V Y 90JvD4020C9Hs8T VelHi_ptmRNIx_rJEfbOs3 MrdwJQ2I/s1600/Tsar%20Bomba%201961%2( and
https://blogger. googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh YersbK bTbwt-Pvdv- mxpq3_1PjlvLOShEA6F_AHRsNtHOmYFwelk9engJA5UdR-YJ6L6ZJSHUJ-3HVYZg7S15hZRsSPSdauHIQjK Y GSvr2LabhJm1P W-
m3itt6EY 3vA KeeQbP2)- RWeURSdQINniIR6bKHo7mgRP7b__ B1LpjtNvOdaCY DNI/s 1600/100%20percent%20clean%20nuclear%20weapon”20design.png
At 1:14 pm, @ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/13/britain-should-prepare-nuclear-wat/ said...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/13/britain-should-prepare-nuclear-wat/ Britain should prepare for a nuclear war I don’t buy the popular scepticism that Vladimir Putin wouldn’t resort to using such weapons
HAMISH DE BRETTON-GORDON 13 August 2022 * 6:00pm
The threat of a nuclear attack or accident has rarely been higher. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres has warned that “humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation”. UK National Security advisor Sir Stephen Lovegrove has said that a breakdown in strategic dialogue between the West and China had raised the risk of an accidental escalation to nuclear war. All this
against a backdrop of Putin threatening Nato and Ukraine with a nuclear strike, Xi Jinping’s sabre-rattling against Taiwan, Iran claiming to be nuclear weapon capable, and North Korea working to get there....
At 1:20 pm, & https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11111505/Ukraine-blasts-Vladimir-Putins-nuclear-blackmail-Russian- troops-power-plant.html said...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11111505/Ukraine-blasts-Vladimir-Putins-nuclear-blackmail-Russian-troops-power-plant.html Ukraine blasts Vladimir Putin's 'nuclear blackmail' over Russian troops at power plant
Ukranian president Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of ‘nuclear blackmai!'
Russia seized the Zaporizhzhia plant in March and it's now a base to hit towns
Ukrainian forces can't fight back without possibly unleashing a catastrophic radiation fallout from a stray missile
By MAIL FOREIGN SERVICE
PUBLISHED: 01:27, 15 August 2022 | UPDATED: 01:28, 15 August 2022
Ukranian president Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of using 'nuclear blackmail’ by stationing troops at Europe's largest nuclear power plant.
Russia seized the Zaporizhzhia plant in March in the early days of its invasion and has turned it into a base from where it hits nearby towns.
This means Ukrainian forces cannot fight back without the risk of unleashing a catastrophic radiation fallout from a stray missile. But the plant has been shelled in recent days, with both sides blaming each other.
Ukraine says Russia has fired its own weaponry at the plant, claiming they were Ukrainian attacks.
The UN, meanwhile, has warned of a nuclear disaster as the situation escalates.
Mr Zelensky says any Russian soldier who shoots at or under the cover of the plant will be a 'special target' for his forces.
The plant is located in the city of Enerhodar, on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, seizing the plant within days. Russia has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and says it seized control of the plant to prevent leaks of radioactive materials during fighting in the region.
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Mr Zelensky said Russia had engaged in 'constant provocations' by firing on the plant. This was being done, he said in his TV address, to "blackmail our state and the entire free world’.
But he stressed that 'Russian blackmail only mobilises even more global efforts to confront terror’.
At 11:19 am, & https:/www.wilsoncenter.org/article/russias-nuclear-threats-recast-cold-war-dangers-delicate-balance-terror- revisited said...
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/russias-nuclear-threats-recast-cold-war-dangers-delicate-balance-terror-revisited
"Russia’s Nuclear Threats Recast Cold War Dangers: The “Delicate Balance of Terror” Revisited Robert S. Litwak image By Robert S. Litwak on May 3, 2022
"As the United States convened a meeting of 40 nations in late April to coordinate their military aid to Ukraine, Russia responded with renewed nuclear saber-rattling. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, echoing earlier statements by President Vladimir Putin, charged the United States and NATO with waging a “proxy” war against Russia in Ukraine and asserted that the risk of nuclear war is now “considerable.” While President Biden has called Russian comments about nuclear war “irresponsible,” CIA Director William Burns warned, “Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setbacks that they’ve faced so far, militarily, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons.
oom
At 11:25 am, @ https://carnegieendowment. org/2022/07/18/china-pub-87396 said...
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/18/china-pub-87396
"China is transforming its nuclear deterrent to meet the demands of a new era that will be defined centrally by U.S.-Chinese rivalry at the core of the international system. Even as it prepares for this intensified competition, China has to manage its growing rivalry with Japan and India to include the latter’s growing, albeit still modest, nuclear capabilities.
"Published July 18, 2022
"Given China’s ongoing modernization of its nuclear deterrent—a process that has manifested itself in successive phases going back to the 1960s—it seems quaint that the country’s leadership initially appeared to be dismissive of nuclear weaponry. Not long after nuclear weapons were first used during World War II, Mao Zedong famously disparaged them as “paper tigers.” This airy dismissal was influenced largely by the impact of China’s traditional strategic thought and the Marxist analysis of war and peace on Mao’s thinking. Traditional Chinese approaches to strategy, as exemplified for instance by Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, did not emphasize technology as critical to military success. ... "The contest of strength is not only a contest of military and economic power, but also a contest of human power and morale. Military and economic power is necessarily wielded by people.” 1
"... Given these iron laws of history, it is not surprising that Mao, in common with most Marxists during the early postwar period, could not admit that nuclear weapons had, in fact, decisively transformed international politics. His own experience of victory, where a communist revolution produced by a “people’s war” had brought a new state into being, further confirmed his ideological conviction that revolutionary action, not technology, drove all large-scale political change.3
"Ever the arch-realist, however, Mao soon came to understand both the importance of nuclear weapons and the urgency of acquiring them.4 ... Both the Korean War and the earliest crises in the Taiwan Strait constituted important turning points on this score: the former event forced Mao and his leadership cohort to take seriously the threat posed by advanced military technologies, including nuclear weapons, while the latter, which engendered explicit U.S. nuclear threats against China, exemplified the nuclear coercion that was hard to neutralize simply by threatening a “people’s war.”5
"Consequently, Mao followed up on his earlier 1952 decision to build a national civil defense system, which was intended to offer some immunity to U.S. nuclear weapons, by initiating a dedicated program to develop Chinese nuclear weapons with Soviet assistance. Exploiting the Sino-Soviet alliance to advance nuclear cooperation under the guise of peaceful purposes, Mao’s China finally decided in early 1955—roughly a decade after nuclear weapons were first used in war—to develop these capabilities both because they were judged to be essential for protecting Chinese security in the face of intense U.S. threats and because they were, by this time, also seen as critical instruments of national power in the emerging Cold War order. When the Sino-Soviet split ended nuclear cooperation between the two nations in 1960, China continued its quest for nuclear weapons independently, conceiving them as insurance equally against the United States and the Soviet Union.6"
At 11:41 am, @ https://carnegieendowment. org/2022/07/18/china-pub-87396 said...
[CONTINUED:]
"... Mao had recognized this problem during the onset of the Korean War when he noted, “If the U.S. strikes with atomic bombs, we have none and can only allow it to strike. This is something that we cannot resolve.” 13
".., As Mao emphasized, “the success [of China’s nuclear weapons program] will boost our courage and scare others,” ... A few months after China’s first nuclear test in 1964, he reiterated the latter conclusion when he declared “We don’t wish to have too many atomic bombs ourselves. What would we do with so many? To have a few is just fine.”’15
"On this count, Mao was as good as his word. ... Mao understood that despite the formidable destructiveness of nuclear weaponry, they could not by themselves ensure the successful occupation of an adversary’s territory ...
"Preventing the nuclear coercion of China closely followed the deterrence of nuclear aggression as a strategic objective in large part https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 482/510
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because Beijing felt itself victimized by U.S. nuclear threats at various moments during the early Cold War...
"Throughout the 1990s and in the following decade, there were extensive discussions in the Chinese strategic community about the wisdom of retaining the no-first-use pledge in circumstances where China was now the direct target of an unconstrained superpower rival. Consequently, there appeared sporadic insinuations that the no-first-use pledge was not as unconditional as it originally appeared... 82 Ina similar vein, The Science of Second Artillery Campaigns mentions “reducing [or lowering] the nuclear deterrence threshold” (emphasis added)—which is not synonymous with “lowering the nuclear employment threshold”—when it discusses qualifying China’s no-first-use policy in cases where an enemy threatens conventional strikes against important nuclear facilities; attacks against major strategic targets such as big dams, critical hydroelectric plants, and major political, population, or economic centers; or when China faces the threat of major defeat in a high-stakes conventional conflict.83...
"NUCLEAR WEAPON DESIGNS
"... from China’s nuclear tests and the kinds of nuclear systems it has deployed over the years, Beijing has the capacity to deploy a diverse nuclear arsenal consisting of everything from fission to fusion to enhanced radiation weapons that can be carried by aircraft and, more importantly, by ballistic and cruise missiles. The ballistic missiles, deployed over the past several decades, suggest that China’s “standard” nuclear devices today are thermonuclear weapons. (At the moment, China does not appear to have deployed any nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. 162) Since China’s nuclear strategy consists of holding at risk big but soft targets—such as cities, industrial centers, and important static military sites like large ports, airfields, and bases—thermonuclear weapons, which produce high yields from relatively low weight payloads, are ideal deterrents. ...
"All U.S. nuclear weapon designs thus subsist on the knife edge between superlative performance and failure that could be caused by the tiniest deficiencies in either their components or their overall architecture. The W-88 warhead, which exemplifies contemporary U.S. two- stage thermonuclear weapons, accordingly, has been described by one authority as “a ‘delicate’ and neat package.” 164 In pursuit of such sophistication, the United States has relentlessly tested its nuclear weapon designs to ensure their performance, reliability, and safety under every imaginable condition. Toward that end, it conducted 1,032 nuclear tests to validate the 100-plus nuclear device designs that were deployed since 1945, in contrast to China, which conducted less than fifty tests of probably not more than a dozen weapon designs between 1964 and 1996.165..."
At 11:50 am, @ https://carnegieendowment. org/2022/07/18/china-pub-8 7396 said...
[CONTINUED:]
"In any event, the new Chinese missile systems that are either entering service or which will be deployed in the future—such as the DF-41 and the JL-3—are certain to use variants of the device designs that were tested during the 1990s. The nuclear tests undertaken during that decade were intended to develop the smaller and more efficient warheads that will remain staples of the Chinese arsenal for years to come.170 These warheads are believed to utilize smaller quantities of fissile materials, incorporate more robust electronics and safety features (such as insensitive high explosives), and permit—where appropriate—a continuation of the traditional Chinese approach of maintaining systems in de-mated condition until prior to launch. 171
"There is little doubt that China is continuing its research on advanced nuclear warheads, but whether its moratorium on hot testing constrains its ability to deploy such weapons remains an open question. In the past, China circumvented the limitations of its modest testing history “by using generic [nuclear weapons] designs of wide adaptability.”172 ... China has invested heavily in computer simulation capabilities; what it lacks, at least in comparison to the United States, is extensive design codes—data pertaining to the myriad transformations that occur during a nuclear explosion.174 The United States patiently accumulated this information through hundreds of nuclear tests. ... This limitation has motivated China to target the acquisition of U.S. data through espionage and to collaborate with Russia for assistance. Using information from U.S. codes gathered surreptitiously, however, is a gamble when developing new nuclear designs. Seeking assistance from another advanced, friendly, nuclear power is another matter: there is evidence that Russia has already aided China for this purpose, and such cooperation could increase as Beijing and Moscow deepen their efforts to balance against U.S. power.175 Finally, China will attempt to mitigate some of its hot-testing constraints by conducting subcritical and hydronuclear tests as all other nuclear powers do. On the basis of classified evidence, the Trump administration had in fact insinuated that China is engaged in covert nuclear testing that goes beyond the “zero-yield” constraint associated with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Although the administration’s public claims were nuanced, it had privately concluded that China was, in fact, conducting covert nuclear experiments and tests in explosive containment chambers that were intended to obscure any supercritical yields. 176
... Newer Chinese missiles, however, carry lighter, lower-yield weapons that weigh 600 kilograms or less and produce yields in the range of 300 to 500 kilotons.178 ...
long-standing view that nuclear war is uncontrollable.” 179 ..."
At 11:51 am, ®@ https://carnegieendowment. org/2022/07/18/china-pub-87396 said...
[CONTINUED:]
NOTES
1 Mao Zedong, “On Protracted War,” Selected Military Writings of Mao Tse-tung (Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 1963), 217-218... 13 Yin Xiong and Huang Xuemei, Shijie yuanzidan fengyunlu [The stormy record of the atomic bomb in the world] (Beijing: Xinhua chubanshe, 1999), 258...
15 Mao Zedong, Mao Zedong wenji [Mao Zedong’s collected works], Vol. 8 (Beijing: Xinhua chubanshe, 1999), 407...
82 See for example, Baohui Zhang, “The Taiwan Strait and the Future of China’s No-First-Use Nuclear Policy,” Comparative Strategy 27, no. 2 (2008): 164-182; and Xu, “China’s Security Environment and the Role of Nuclear Weapons,” 32-33.
83 Yu Jixun, ed., The Science of Second Artillery Campaigns (Beijing: People’s Liberation Army Press, 2004), 294.
84 For details, see Horsburgh, “Change and Innovation in Chinese Nuclear Weapons Strategy,” 185-204.
162 Dennis M. Gormley, Andrew S. Erickson, and Jingdong Yuan, A Low-Visibility Force Multiplier: Assessing China’s Cruise Missile
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Ambitions (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2014), 74-75.
170 Gregory Kulacki, “China’s Nuclear Arsenal: Status and Evolution,” Union of Concerned Scientists, October 13, 2011, https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.337.5855&rep=rep | &type=pdf.
171 For an excellent discussion of these issues, see Jonathan Medalia, “Chinese Nuclear Testing and Warhead Development,” Congressional Research Service, November 14, 1997, https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/19971114 97- 1022_192bb0f10895f24ad60d9a4ee0ea7328e049d7aa2c.pdf.
172 Norris, “French and Chinese Nuclear Weapon Testing,” 50.
173 Peter Vincent Pry, “China: EMP Threat: The People’s Republic of China Military Doctrine, Plans, and Capabilities for Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack,” EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security, June 10, 2020, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1102202.pdf; and Julia Masterson and Shannon Bugos, “Pentagon Warns of Chinese Nuclear Development,” Arms Control Association, October 2020, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020- 10/news/pentagon-warns-chinese- nuclear-development.
179 Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2021, 93.
At 12:08 pm, @ https:/www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/russia-hauls-in-ambassador-over-offensive-uk-comments-on- nuclear-weapons/ said...
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/russia-hauls-in-ambassador-over-offensive-uk-comments-on-nuclear-weapons/
"Russia hauls in ambassador over ‘offensive’ UK comments on nuclear weapons EURACTIV.com with Reuters 1 Jul 2022
"Russia said on Thursday (30 June) it had summoned the British ambassador to voice a strong protest against “offensive” British statements, including about alleged Russian threats to use nuclear weapons.
"The Russian Foreign Ministry said it issued the rebuke to Ambassador Deborah Bronnert ... British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said in a radio interview this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin had “small man syndrome” and Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was “like a comedy turn — she does her statement every week threatening to nuke everyone”.
"Russian officials often use the nuclear threat in their rhetoric. ... Russia’s war in Ukraine has wrecked its relations with most Western countries but it often reserves special vitriol for Britain, which has positioned itself as a leading backer of Kyiv in both rhetorical support and weapons supplies. In February, the Kremlin condemned what it called “absolutely unacceptable” remarks by British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss about the risk of conflict between Russia and NATO after Moscow invaded Ukraine.
"On Thursday, Putin cited Margaret Thatcher’s 1982 dispatch of the British navy to take back the Falkland Islands from Argentina in response to comments by Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a “perfect example of toxic masculinity” and would not have happened if Putin were a woman. ... Putin shot back at Western leaders who mocked his athletic exploits, saying they would look “disgusting” if they tried to emulate his bare-torso appearances."
At 8:07 am, & https://orthochristian.com/97039.html said...
The first Russian nuclear weapons lab Arzamas-16 was renamed Sarov in 1991 due to the collapse of the USSR. Sarov is famous for Saint Seraphim (1754-1833) of the Sarov monastery (founded 1706), a renowned Russian saint canonized there by the Russian Orthodox Church on 19 July 1903. His remains were discovered in 1991 stored away in an anti-religious Soviet museum and launched into space on 19 October 2016 aboard the Soyuz MS-02.
At 7:14 am, @ https://nis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:41062121 said...
https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:41062121
Radiation hormesis and the linear-no-threshold assumption Sanders, Charles L. (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering)
Current radiation protection standards are based upon the application of the linear no-threshold (LNT) assumption, which considers that even very low doses of ionizing radiation can cause cancer. The radiation hormesis hypothesis, by contrast, proposes that low-dose ionizing radiation is not only safe but is healthy and beneficial. In this book, the author examines all facets of radiation hormesis in detail, including the history of the concept and mechanisms, and presents comprehensive, up-to-date reviews for major cancer types. It is explained how low-dose radiation can in fact decrease all-cause and all-cancer mortality and help to control metastatic cancer. Attention is also drawn to biases in epidemiological research when using the LNT assumption. The author shows how proponents of the LNT assumption consistently reject, manipulate, and deliberately ignore an overwhelming abundance of published data and falsely claim that no reliable data are available at doses of less than 100 mSv. The consequence of the LNT assumption is a radiophobia that is very costly in terms of lives and money.
At 7:19 am, & https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092 79718315254 ?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR- 2&rr=742bc062b95f7 76d said...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092797 183 15254?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2 &rr=742bc062b95f776d
Chemico-Biological Interactions Volume 301, 1 March 2019, Pages 2-5
An examination of the linear no-threshold hypothesis of cancer risk assessment: Introduction to a series of reviews documenting the lack of
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biological plausibility of LNT R. Goldena, J. Bush, E. Calabresec
The linear no-threshold (LNT) single-hit dose response model for mutagenicity and carcinogenicity has dominated the field of regulatory risk assessment of carcinogenic agents since 1956 for radiation [8] and 1977 for chemicals [11]. ... However, breakthrough advancements contributed by modern molecular biology over the last several decades have provided experimental tools and evidence challenging the LNT model for use in risk assessment of radiation or chemicals.
Those science advancements have revealed that DNA is not simply an inert chemical target such that even a single “hit” potentially results in cancer, or that multiple hits additively cumulate over time.
At 7:20 am, & https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092 79718311177? via%3Dihub said...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092797 183 11177?via%3Dihub
Chemico-Biological Interactions Volume 301, 1 March 2019, Pages 6-25
The linear No-Threshold (LNT) dose response model: A comprehensive assessment of its historical and scientific foundations Author links open overlay panelEdward J.Calabrese
Abstract
The linear no-threshold (LNT) single-hit (SH) dose response model for cancer risk assessment is comprehensively assessed with respect to its historical foundations. This paper also examines how mistakes, ideological biases, and scientific misconduct by key scientists affected the acceptance, validity, and applications of the LNT model for cancer risk assessment. In addition, the analysis demonstrates that the LNT single-hit model was inappropriately adopted for governmental risk assessment, regulatory policy, practices, and for risk communication.
At 7:23 am, & https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092 79718311013? via%3Dihub said...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092797 183 11013?via%3Dihub
Chemico-Biological Interactions Volume 301, 1 March 2019, Pages 34-53
The LNT model for cancer induction is not supported by radiobiological data
Bobby R.Scott and Sujeentha Tharmalingamb
Abstract
The hallmarks of cancer have been the focus of much research and have influenced the development of risk models for radiation-induced cancer. However, natural defenses against cancer, which constitute the hallmarks of cancer prevention, have largely been neglected in developing cancer risk models. These natural defenses are enhanced by low doses and dose rates of ionizing radiation, which has aided in the continuation of human life over many generations. Our natural defenses operate at the molecular, cellular, tissue, and whole-body levels and include epigenetically regulated (epiregulated) DNA damage repair and antioxidant production, selective p53-independent apoptosis of aberrant cells (e.g. neoplastically transformed and tumor cells), suppression of cancer-promoting inflammation, and anticancer immunity (both innate and adaptive components). This publication reviews the scientific bases for the indicated cancer- preventing natural defenses and evaluates their implication for assessing cancer risk after exposure to low radiation doses and dose rates. Based on the extensive radiobiological evidence reviewed, it is concluded that the linear-no-threshold (LNT) model (which ignores natural defenses against cancer), as it relates to cancer risk from ionizing radiation, is highly implausible. Plausible models include dose-threshold and hormetic models. More research is needed to establish when a given model (threshold, hormetic, or other) applies to a given low- dose-radiation exposure scenario.
At 7:24 am, & https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092 79718311013 ?via%3Dihub said...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092797 183 11013?via%3 Dihub
Chemico-Biological Interactions
Volume 301, 1 March 2019, Pages 34-53
Chemico-Biological Interactions
The LNT model for cancer induction is not supported by radiobiological data Author links open overlay panelBobby R.ScottaSujeentharTharmalingam
The hallmarks of cancer have been the focus of much research and have influenced the development of risk models for radiation-induced cancer. However, natural defenses against cancer, which constitute the hallmarks of cancer prevention, have largely been neglected in developing cancer risk models. These natural defenses are enhanced by low doses and dose rates of ionizing radiation, which has aided in the continuation of human life over many generations. Our natural defenses operate at the molecular, cellular, tissue, and whole-body levels and include epigenetically regulated (epiregulated) DNA damage repair and antioxidant production, selective p53-independent
https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html 485/510
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apoptosis of aberrant cells (e.g. neoplastically transformed and tumor cells), suppression of cancer-promoting inflammation, and anticancer immunity (both innate and adaptive components). This publication reviews the scientific bases for the indicated cancer- preventing natural defenses and evaluates their implication for assessing cancer risk after exposure to low radiation doses and dose rates. Based on the extensive radiobiological evidence reviewed, it is concluded that the linear-no-threshold (LNT) model (which ignores natural defenses against cancer), as it relates to cancer risk from ionizing radiation, is highly implausible. Plausible models include dose-threshold and hormetic models. More research is needed to establish when a given model (threshold, hormetic, or other) applies to a given low- dose-radiation exposure scenario.
At 7:25 am, & https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092 79718310949 said...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S00092797 18310949
Chemico-Biological Interactions
Volume 301, 1 March 2019, Pages 26-33
Chemico-Biological Interactions
The linear no-threshold model is less realistic than threshold or hormesis-based models: An evolutionary perspective Author links open overlay panelDavidCostantiniabBennyBorremanscde
Abstract
The linear no-threshold (LNT) risk model is the current human health risk assessment paradigm. This model states that adverse stochastic biological responses to high levels of a stressor can be used to estimate the response to low or moderate levels of that stressor. In recent years the validity of the LNT risk model has increasingly been questioned because of the recurring observation that an organism's response to high stressor doses differs from that to low doses. This raises important questions about the biological and evolutionary validity of the LNT model. In this review we reiterate that the LNT model as applied to stochastic biological effects of low and moderate stressor levels has less biological validity than threshold or, particularly, hormetic models. In so doing, we rely heavily on literature from disciplines like ecophysiology or evolutionary ecology showing how exposure to moderate amounts of stress can have severe impacts on phenotype and organism reproductive fitness. We present a mathematical model that illustrates and explores the hypothetical conditions that make a particular kind of hormesis (conditioning hormesis) ecologically and evolutionarily plausible.
At 7:27 am, @ https://inm.snmjournals.org/content/59/12/1 786 said... https://jnm.snmjournals.org/content/59/12/1786
Are We Approaching the End of the Linear No-Threshold Era? Mohan Doss Journal of Nuclear Medicine December 2018, 59 (12) 1786-1793; DOI: https://doi.org/10.2967/jnumed.118.217182
Abstract
The linear no-threshold (LNT) model for radiation-induced cancer was adopted by national and international advisory bodies in the 1950s and has guided radiation protection policies worldwide since then. The resulting strict regulations have increased the compliance costs for the various uses of radiation, including nuclear medicine. The concerns about low levels of radiation due to the absence of a threshold have also resulted in adverse consequences. Justification of the LNT model was based on the concept that low levels of radiation increase mutations and that increased mutations imply increased cancers. This concept may not be valid. Low-dose radiation boosts defenses such as antioxidants and DNA repair enzymes. The boosted defenses would reduce the endogenous DNA damage that would have occurred in the subsequent period, and so the result would be reduced DNA damage and mutations. Whereas mutations are necessary for causing cancer, they are not sufficient since the immune system eliminates cancer cells or keeps them under control. The immune system plays an extremely important role in preventing cancer, as indicated by the substantially increased cancer risk in immune-suppressed patients. Hence, since low-dose radiation enhances the immune system, it would reduce cancers, resulting in a phenomenon known as radiation hormesis. There is considerable evidence for radiation hormesis and against the LNT model, including studies of atomic bomb survivors, background radiation, environmental radiation, cancer patients, medical radiation, and occupational exposures. Though Commentary 27 published by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements concluded that recent epidemiologic studies broadly support the LNT model, a critical examination of the studies has shown that they do not. Another deficiency of Commentary 27 is that it did not consider the vast available evidence for radiation hormesis. Other advisory body reports that have supported the LNT model have similar deficiencies. Advisory bodies are urged to critically evaluate the evidence supporting both sides and arrive at an objective conclusion on the validity of the LNT model. Considering the strength of the evidence against the LNT model and the weakness of the evidence for it, the present analysis indicates that advisory bodies would be compelled to reject the LNT model. Hence, we may be approaching the end of the LNT model era.
At 3:11 pm, @ https://nuclear.news/2022-06-15-russia-cuts-enriched-uranium-nuclear-reactors-down.html said... https://nuclear.news/2022-06- 1 5-russia-cuts-enriched-uranium-nuclear-reactors-down.html
INSANELY VULNERABLE: If Russia cuts off supply of enriched uranium to US power companies, America’s nuclear energy reactors will close within a year 06/15/2022 / By Ethan Huff
Former Department of Energy (DoE) Under Secretary Paul Dabbar and Columbia University energy researcher Matt Bowen have published a report warning that America’s energy crisis could soon get a whole lot worse if Russia stops selling enriched uranium to nuclear power plants.
If supplies get cut, they say, then many United States nuclear power generation facilities would be forced offline within a year. The result would be much less energy availability and sky-high prices even beyond current inflation figures.
Nuclear power accounts for more than 20 percent of all U.S. electricity generation capacity, and nearly half of the country’s 56 operational nuclear power plants use enriched uranium imported from Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
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Although Russia only mines about six percent of the world’s uranium, it controls about 40 percent of the global uranium conversion market and 46 percent of total uranium enrichment capacity.
Not only would the U.S. suffer in such a scenario, but so would Finland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Turkey, all of which rely on Russian state nuclear giant Rosatom for uranium mining, milling, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication to the construction and servicing of state-of-the-art reactors.
At 3:12 pm, & https://nuclear.news/2022-08-19-russia-accuses-u-s-nato-attempting-to-provoke-all-out-war.html said... https://nuclear.news/2022-08- 1 9-russia-accuses-u-s-nato-attempting-to-provoke-all-out-war.html
Russia accuses U.S., NATO of attempting to provoke all-out war between nuclear powers 08/19/2022 / By JD Heyes
The Russian government issued a dire warning this week as the U.S. and NATO continue pouring tens of billions of dollars worth of support and weaponry into Ukraine.
In a statement, the Russian Embassy in the United States said the Biden regime’s ongoing support for Ukraine will eventually result in a “direct clash of nuclear powers” that will likely result in the destruction of the planet, or a major portion of it.
“Today, the United States continues to act with no regard to other countries’ security and interests, which contributes to an increase in nuclear risks,” the embassy said in a statement on its Telegram channel. “The [US’] steps to further engage in a hybrid confrontation with
Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis are fraught with unpredictable escalation and a direct military clash of nuclear powers.”
Also, the Biden regime appears to be attempting to provoke a full-on war with Communist China over Taiwan.
At 3:15 pm, @ https://nuclear.news/2022-06-26-iskander-missile-deployment-to-kaliningrad-threat-to-nato.html said...
https://nuclear.news/2022-06-26-iskander-missile-deployment-to-kaliningrad-threat-to-nato.html
Russia’s deployment of Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad is major threat to NATO: Here’s why 06/26/2022 / By JD Heyes
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia, the biggest state in the USSR and around which the alliance was formed, inherited the bulk of weaponry it had arrayed against NATO.
That included a massive amount of ballistic missiles, many of which have remained in service and now form the backbone of Moscow’s A2AD — “anti-access/area denial” strategy for the allied security alliance.
But of course, not all of Russia’s ballistic missile stockpile, the largest in the world, is aged. In fact, many models are fairly new and all are extremely lethal, including the Iskander-M, a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), which NATO is particularly concerned with.
Russia’s deployment of Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad is major threat to NATO: Here’s why 06/26/2022 / By JD Heyes
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia, the biggest state in the USSR and around which the alliance was formed, inherited the bulk of weaponry it had arrayed against NATO.
That included a massive amount of ballistic missiles, many of which have remained in service and now form the backbone of Moscow’s A2AD — “anti-access/area denial” strategy for the allied security alliance.
But of course, not all of Russia’s ballistic missile stockpile, the largest in the world, is aged. In fact, many models are fairly new and all are extremely lethal, including the Iskander-M, a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), which NATO is particularly concerned with.
“The SS-26 Iskander missile has a range of approximately 400 to 500 kilometers, or about 250 to 310 miles,” The National Interest reports. “It can carry a variety of warhead types, including earth penetrator, high explosive or thermobaric.
“Export models have a shorter, 280-kilometer range (about 175 miles), and a smaller 480-kilogram payload (nearly 300 pounds), while the Russian service standard payload is 480 to 700 kilograms (300 to 430 pounds),” the report continued.
In addition, the report noted that the Iskander is also very accurate. It uses a combination of “inertial, GLONASS, and radar terrain correlation guidance, the missile can strike targets within a circular error probable (CEP) of 2 to 5 meters” — GLONASS being Russia’s version of our GPS.
In other words, the missiles have a 50 percent chance of landing some two to five meters away from a target, versus older SCUD-D missiles that have a CEP of 50 meters, making them far less accurate.
What’s also notable about this model is that Iskander transporters are capable of carrying two missiles at one time in a side-by-side configuration. Also, the transporter features an armored roof to protect the cargo inside while the cabin itself also shields occupants from chemical biological, and nuclear hazards. Reloading vehicles that travel with the missile transporters on a battlefield are capable of reloading them quickly via a crane, the National Interest reported.
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“The Iskander system is deployed in Russia proper, as well as in Kaliningrad, an important Russian exclave next to Poland and the Baltic Sea. From Kaliningrad, the Iskander can hit targets in Poland, parts of eastern Germany, southern Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus and a great part of the Baltic Sea,” the outlet added.
At 3:17 pm, @ https://www.bbe.co.uk/news/world-europe-62466998 said...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62466998
Russia halts US inspections of nuclear arsenal under New START treaty
Published
8 August
A Russian RS-24 Yars strategic nuclear missile
Russia has told the US it has "temporarily" suspended on-site inspections of its strategic nuclear weapons, under an arms control treaty
known as New START.
The Russian foreign ministry said the US was seeking advantages and had deprived Russia of the right to carry out inspections on US territory.
It said US sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine had changed conditions between the countries. The treaty came into force in 2011.
It is the last remaining arms reduction agreement between the former Cold War rivals. It caps at 1,550 the number of long-range nuclear warheads that each country can deploy.
The ministry said the suspension was allowed under the treaty terms "in exceptional circumstances". ...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February sparked hostile rhetoric on both sides, including warnings that the conflict could escalate into a third world war.
Some commentators on Russian state media have boasted about Moscow's nuclear arsenal in the context of current tensions with Nato. 4t 3:20 pm, @ https:/www.bbe.co.uk/news/world-europe-60551140 said...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-6055 1140
Ukraine invasion: Would Putin press the nuclear button?
By Steve Rosenberg
BBC News, Moscow
Let me begin with an admission. So many times, I've thought: "Putin would never do this." Then he goes and does it.
"He'd never annex Crimea, surely?" He did.
"He'd never start a war in the Donbas." He did.
"He'd never launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine." He has.
I've concluded that the phrase "would never do" doesn't apply to Vladimir Putin.
And that raises an uncomfortable question:
"He'd never press the nuclear button first. Would he?"
It's not a theoretical question. Russia's leader has just put his country's nuclear forces on "special" alert, complaining of "aggressive statements" over Ukraine by Nato leaders.
Listen closely to what President Putin has been saying. Last Thursday when he announced on TV his "special military operation" (in reality, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine), he delivered a chilling warning:
"To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside - if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history."
"Putin's words sound like a direct threat of nuclear war," believes Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov, chief editor of the Novaya Gazeta newspaper.
"In that TV address, Putin wasn't acting like the master of the Kremlin, but the master of the planet; in the same way the owner of a flash car shows off by twirling his keyring round his finger, Putin was twirling the nuclear button. He's said many times: if there is no Russia,
why do we need the planet? No one paid any attention. But this is a threat that if Russia isn't treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed."
"One option for him is to cut gas supplies to Europe, hoping that will make the Europeans climb down. Another option is to explode a nuclear weapon somewhere over the North Sea between Britain and Denmark and see what happens."
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From providing data that sheds light on the complex physics of a nuclear weapon to providing a valuable training ground for the next generation of stockpile stewards, Livermore’s Inertial Confinement Fusion program brings unparalleled value to the nation.
The last U.S. underground nuclear explosive tests, which were key to assessing the design and viability of the country’s nuclear weapons, occurred over 27 years ago. However, the need for deeper understanding of the complex physical processes that drive nuclear weapon performance and for putting stockpile design and assessment on a solid science-based foundation continue to be of utmost importance to the nation.
A core mission of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is to ensure this stockpile remains safe, secure, and reliable, without further underground testing. Lawrence Livermore’s Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) program supports the Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) mission by seeking to recreate and examine the processes that occur in the heart of burning stars and nuclear weapons, through heating a tiny amount of encapsulated fusion fuel and compressing it to the point that nuclear fusion reactions occur. The data from experiments at ICF facilities help to refine computer models used to better understand and assess the performance of the stockpile’s aging nuclear weapons. These experiments also provide an opportunity for weapon designers, experimentalists, engineers, and staff to tackle challenging design problems in the absence of underground nuclear explosive testing ...
At 12:05 am, 8 Joseph Curwen said...
Hello, I’m an interested layman and find your blog very interesting. I’ve long been fascinated by nuclear weapons and MAD, and had an intuitive feeling that something was wrong with the prevailing narrative that there is no way to defend against them, since usually a technology can be used for both offensive and defensive purposes, like steel can be used to make both swords and shields. I have many questions. Please excuse if some of them have already been addressed in the blog, like I said I’m a layman and don’t understand the technical language.
My first question is, if it is true that the effects of nuclear weapons are exaggerated by two orders of magnitude, it would seem to me to certainly be correct that the devastation commonly imagined to be caused by them could be averted by relatively cheap civil defense measures - at current stockpiles. However, nuclear weapons are cheap as weapons go, and given that the major powers devote only a fraction of their military spending to nuclear weapons, and none of them are on anything like a war footing like in WWII when they devoted 50% of their gross national output to the war effort, would it not be possible to increase the production of nuclear warheads and ICBMs by hundreds or thousands of times, canceling out the effect of the civil defense and restoring MAD?
Regarding ABMs, those which are themselves nuclear-tipped certainly seem to me to overcome most of the issues associated with missile
defense systems. However, to what extent is it possible to shield the radars from the effects of nuclear blasts, and the other weapons which would probably be deployed to knock them out? Also, how might stealth and/or hypersonic missiles affect these calculations?
At 12:06 am, 8 Joseph Curwen said... What do you think of the idea that a country could engage in population dispersal to negate nuclear effects as suggested in this post from a thread on an online forum? https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/107627/how-can-mutually-assured-destruction-be-made- not-assured
“Lots of discussion of reducing the firepower of nations, or improving the anti-missile defences.
The reason MAD works is because nobody wants to deal with the consequences of a nuclear war. But what if you were simply harder to hurt?
Solution:
TL:DR redesign your nation to minimise the damage of a nuclear assault using defensive terrain and a dispersed populace/infrastructure. You want to protect infrastructure and disperse the population so you provide no targets suitable for nuclear strikes.
You should duplicate critical infrastructure such as power, water, fuel and telecommunications in locations throughout the nation, particularly out in the country where they will have to be targeted specifically to be destroyed. Bury them underground where possible, harden them with concrete, guard them with anti-missile systems and make sure some of them are national secrets. Maintain reserves of water and fuel at secret locations.
The goal being to provide continuity of infrastructure.
Continuity of government is already a goal in real life with facilities around the US particularly and other nations too intended to provide this service. (eg: Raven Rock and
Norad)
If you can maintain at least partial power, water and fuel infrastructure, the rebuilding process will be far easier.
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The second part is to protect the people. The best way to do this is scatter the urban sprawl wider and use defensive terrain to protect against blasts. Most nukes are airbursts, but their ground-shockwave will produce much of the damage. building houses low and wide will help protect them.
Cities and the suburbs around them are frequently built on very flat terrain, or in a valley area which actively shapes the blast of a nuclear strike to be more effective. Building artificial hills and valleys to put towns and suburban sprawl in would mitigate the blastwaves fairly quickly and protect against the Flash-damage while being actually quite scenic in peacetime.
The main concern then becomes the fallout and providing for the needs of the people in the immediate aftermath. If we're already performing extensive earthworks, then the best option would be to provide underground tram-lines into the city center from the suburban areas. These tunnels would be networked out to nodes throughout the suburbs and link to fallout shelters and supply bunkers where the population can retreat to in an emergency.
So your nation can now weather the storm of nuclear war better than most.. Your citizens enjoy a modern and efficient public-transit system and aren't cramped together in urban sprawl. You enjoy the benefit of a happy people in peacetime.
Destruction is no longer mutually assured. You may lose the city itself, but the people and core infrastructure will survive for the most part, meaning you can rebuild.”
At 12:06 am, @ Joseph Curwen said...
You have stated that at a tactical level, nuclear weapons negate, or would negate if they were developed and deployed properly, the concentration of force principle and thus favor the defender, albeit in a way completely different from what the MAD concept postulates. I don’t understand this. Why couldn’t the attacker mass, say, a large number of self-propelled guns and aim a suitable number of tactical missiles at a given point and advance under a curtain of nuclear firepower? Or if that were to fail, maybe the attacker could try a broad- front offensive aiming to win through attrition?
Related to the above, what would weapons and equipment designed under the assumption of routine nuclear use look like? How different would they be from current ones? I imagine communications and electronics in general would be the most affected?
In the context of a prolonged nuclear war in which the combatants are continually producing new weapons, could the supply of the necessary natural resources be an issue?
Do you have an opinion on the Starlite material?
At 4:56 pm, ® nige said...
"You have stated that at a tactical level, nuclear weapons negate, or would negate if they were developed and deployed properly, the concentration of force principle and thus favor the defender, albeit in a way completely different from what the MAD concept postulates. I don’t understand this. Why couldn’t the attacker mass, say, a large number of self-propelled guns and aim a suitable number of tactical missiles at a given point and advance under a curtain of nuclear firepower?" - Joseph Curwen
They can't "advance under a curtain of nuclear firepower" because the other side can use neutron bombs to stop them in their tracks, literally.
You seem to be looking at this from one side only having neutron bombs. Russia has 2000+ already, having tested very clean low yield weapons from 1965 onwards.
My argument is: everybody has neutron bombs. Then nobody can advance without being stopped in their tracks by others. Simple.
"... none of them are on anything like a war footing like in WWII when they devoted 50% of their gross national output to the war effort, would it not be possible to increase the production of nuclear warheads and ICBMs by hundreds or thousands of times, canceling out the effect of the civil defense and restoring MAD?"
No, the delivery systems needed for bigger warheads are more costly than H-bombs and so the arms race bankrupts and so defeats the dictatorial paranoid enemy! We've gone into this again and again on this blog. Basically, this is the 1911 Churchill vs. Angell debate (as documented by Joad who was present, in the latter's disgusting 1939 Penguin Special book "Why War?): Churchill said something like the Roman (Vegetius) saying, "si vis pacem, para bellum" - if you want peace, fight for it with an arms race! Joad said that's a sick joke. Churchill was a Liberal Party Minister. After Foreign Secretary Grey failed to deter WWI by not saying if Britain would declare war on Germany if it invaded Belgium (it did in the end), he excused WWI by saying it was inevitable due to the insignificant "arms race". Then as JF Kennedy explains in his 1940 book "Why England Slept", Grey's lying "arms race" excuse was used during the 1930s by British "pacifist disarmers" like Philip Noel-Baker, Norman Angell, Cyril Joad, + also drivel-mongering politicians Baldwin, Chamberlain, Attlee and George Lansbury, to oppose overwhelming deterrence of the Nazis using an intense arms race to bankrupt Germany int submission.
My point is, the arms race including tactical nukes and civil defence prep defeated the USSR in the 80s. That's the way to real peace. Spin offs from missiles and nuclear weapons are are space rockets, computers, fusion energy, etc., etc. so it is money well spent!
At 10:20 am, B nige said...
I've put some of these facts into my review of Herman Kahn's much maligned "On Thermonuclear War" (Princeton University press, 1960): https://archive.org/details/onthermonuclearw0000kahn/page/n9/mode/2up
Dad, an Easingwold trained UK civil defence corps instructor under Colchester's 1951-7 civil defence officer and WWI ace John Chick - they both left in 1957 when the government allowed CND to destroy the civil defence corps, by classifying as secret the data nuclear tests
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on survival to allow CND liars supplied with fake data from America and Russia to go unchallenged - dismissed the Marx media saturation bomb effects nonsense very politely as "Communist Russian Appeasement Propaganda (C.R.A.P.)".
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Glasstone's fake nuclear weapon data for unobstructed terrain debunked for cities! Realistic effects and credible nuclear weapon capabilities for deterring or stopping aggressive invasions and attacks which could escalate into major conventional or nuclear wars. Credible nuclear deterrence of invasions and conventional wars reduce the risk of large conventional and nuclear wars occurring through escalation of invasions such as the invasion of Belgium in 1914 and the invasion of Poland in 1939, of surprise attacks like those against France in 1940 and of Russia and Pearl Harbor in 1941, Afghanistan in 1979, Kuwait in 1990, or Crimea in 2014. Contrary to irrational, pseudo-scientific propaganda, the number of nuclear weapons is smaller than the millions of conventional weapons used in large wars and the correct scaling shows that the overall effects are similar, not massively different as often claimed for political propaganda by enemies of peace. Furthermore, the greater time delay of effects from nuclear weapons over the damaged area increases the efficiency of cheap civil defence countermeasures, as compared to conventional weapons. We need credible effects of nuclear weapons for real world peace: peace through tested, proved and practical declassified deterrence and countermeasures against collateral damage. Credible deterrence through simple, effective protection against concentrated and dispersed invasions and aerial attacks. Discussions of the facts as opposed to inaccurate, misleading lies of the "disarm or be annihilated" political dogma variety. Hiroshima and Nagasaki anti-nuclear propaganda debunked by the hard facts. Walls not wars. Walls bring people together by stopping divisive terrorists. In conclusion, credible nuclear deterrence of conventional war offers a beautiful opportunity to create a peaceful world, free from fear peddling, ranting dictators. The only oppositions you will meet will come from authoritarian obsessed fear peddling myth makers. If they can't tell the truth and face the facts, why listen to them? Please see our post on the need to deter not only direct threats from nuclear attacks but also conventional wars and invasions that can escalate into nuclear wars (as proved by the use of nuclear weapons in WWII, for example, after they were developed during the war itself and did not trigger or provoke the war), linked here, here, here, and here, here, here, and the true scaling law equivalence between a few thousand nuclear weapons and the several million tons of small conventional weapons in a non-nuclear world war as proved by our post summarising key points in Herman Kahn's much-abused call for credible deterrence, On Thermonuclear War, linked here. Peace comes through tested, proved and practical declassified countermeasures against the effects of nuclear weapons, chemical weapons and conventional weapons. Credible deterrence to end invasions and wars comes through simple, effective protection against invasions like low yield tactical weapons and walls, and civil defence against collateral damage. Peace comes through discussions of the facts as opposed to inaccurate, misleading lies of the "disarm or be annihilated" political dogma variety, which are designed to exploit fear to close down criticisms of errors in mainstream orthodoxy. In particular, please see the post linked here on EMP results from an actual Russian 300 kt test at 290 km altitude over unwarned civilian infrastructure in Kazakhstan on 22 October 1962, which caused no injuries or deaths whatsoever (contrary to all of Jeremy Corbyn and CND style lying propaganda that any use of nuclear weapons on civilians would automatically kill millions), but shut down the communications and power supply lines! This is not secret, but does not make newspaper headlines to debunk CND style dogmas on the alleged
incredibility of nuclear deterrence.
Hiroshima's air raid shelters were unoccupied because Japanese Army officers were having breakfast when B29s were detected far away, says
Yoshie Oka, the operator of the Hiroshima air raid sirens on 6 August 1945...
In a sample of 1,881 burns cases in Hiroshima, only 17 (or 0.9 percent) were due to ignited clothing and 15 (or 0.7%) were due to the firestorm
flames...
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Dr Harold L. Brode’s new book, Nuclear Weapons in ...
800 war migrants drowned on 22 April by EU policy:...
Photographed fireball shielding by cloud cover in...
Nuclear weapons effects "firestorm" and "nuclear w...
Proved 97.5% survival in completely demolished houses ...
How to achieve peace through tested, proved and practical declassified countermeasures against the effects of nuclear weapons, chemical weapons and conventional weapons. Credible deterrence through simple, effective protection against invasions and collateral damage. Discussions of the facts as opposed to inaccurate, misleading lies of the "disarm or be annihilated" political dogma variety. Hiroshima and Nagasaki anti-nuclear propaganda debunked by the hard facts. Walls not wars. Walls bring people together by stopping attacks by "divide and rule" style divisive terrorists, contrary to simplistic Vatican propaganda.
"There has never been a war yet which, if the facts had been put calmly before the ordinary folk, could not have been prevented." - British Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin, House of Commons Debate on Foreign Affairs, Hansard, 23 November 1945, column 786 (unfortunately secret Cabinet committees called "democracy" for propaganda purposes have not been quite so successful in preventing war). Protection is needed against collateral civilian damage and contamination in conventional, chemical and nuclear attack, with credible low yield clean nuclear deterrence against conventional warfare which, in reality (not science fiction) costs far more lives. Anti scientific media, who promulgate and exploit terrorism for profit, censor (1) vital, effective civil defense knowledge and (2) effective, safe, low yield air burst clean weapons like the MkS54 and W79 which deter conventional warfare and escalation, allowing arms negotiations from a position of strength. This helped end the Cold
War in the 1980s. Opposing civil defense and nuclear weapons that really deter conventional war, is complacent and dangerous.
War and coercion dangers have not stemmed from those who openly attack mainstream mistakes, but from those who camouflage themselves as freedom fighters to ban such free criticism itself, by making the key facts seem taboo, without even a proper debate, let alone financing research into unfashionable alternatives. Research and education in non-mainstream alternatives is needed before an unprejudiced debate, to establish all the basic facts for a real debate. “Wisdom itself cannot flourish, nor even truth be determined, without the give and take of debate and criticism.”
— Robert Oppenheimer (quotation from the H-bomb TV debate hosted by Eleanor Roosevelt, 12 February 1950).
“Apologies for freedom? I can’t handle this! ... Deal from strength or get crushed every time ... Freedom demands liberty everywhere. I’m
thinking, you see, it’s not so easy. But we have to stand up tall and answer freedom’s call!” — Freedom Kids
CONVENTIONAL WARS HAVE KILLED TENS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE, NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAN RAPIDLY DETER THIS REAL THREAT TO PEACE WITH MINIMAL CASUALTIES. ‘During the critical period 8-15 February [1968], the U.S. command realized [that conventional] bombing was not sufficiently effective. ... The air campaign dropped over 110,000 tons of bombs and napalm on the area around Khe Sanh during the 77-day siege ... the most heavily bombed target in the history of conventional warfare.’ — W. C. Yengst, S. J. Lukasik, and M. A. Jensen, Nuclear Weapons that went to War, SAID report DSWA-TR-97-25, September 1998 (quoted in the 2015 book by the secret Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons editor, Dr Harold L. Brode, Nuclear Weapons in the Cold War, page 287). British Nuclear Test Civil Defence Research
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Millions of books, audiobooks, magazines, documents, sheet music, and more for free.
i _2]ons The National Archives | _ins ref: Prem tt /S65 SOB Fa SECRET
DR. PENNEY'S DRAFT BROADCAST ReardeA? 20 Octber |1-
When the planning began, a lot of thought was given t which type of explosion would provide information and experi the greatest value. Purely scientific measurements are mos' made when the weapon is placed at the top of a high tower, hi were other weighty considerations. The Civil Defence autho: this country badly needed more data about atomic explosions :
accordingly, the test was planed to get as much novel infom
CHANGE 1 NUCLEAR WEAPONS EMPLOYMENT Field Manual No 101-31-1 DOCTRINE AND PROCEDURES
Radius of vulnerability (emergency risk criterion: 5% combat ineffec
Figure 54. Radii of Vulnerability. Protective factor = ratio
area of effectin the op:
PERSONNEL (LL) IN— area of effect for shelte
EGORY :
CATEGOR (Based on Governing Effect)
Radii listed are distances at which a 5 percent incidence of effect occurs. HOB used is 60W'/? meters.
Vield (KT) Open Packales APCs Tanks Shelter
Example: for 300 kt, the protective factor of open foxholes is equal te (14,000)2/(2,100)2 = 44.
(Distances are in meters} Open Eon APCs Tanks =
0.1 700 600 600 500 300 1 1.36 1.34 1.96 § 1 1200 900 900 800 580 1 1.78 1.78 2.25 ) 10 3200 1300 1300 1250 900 1 6.06 6.06 6.55 4 20 4000 1500 1450 1400 1000 1 7.11 7.61 8.16 1é 100 8000 1900 1800 1800 1400 1 iva 19.8 19.8 4 200 12000 2000 1900 1900 1500 1 36.0 39.9 39.9 64 300 14000 2100 1950 1950 1600 1 44.4 $1.5 §1.5 7é
Calculation of the injury-averting protective factors by simple open foxholes and earth sh function of weapon yield. Most countermeasures are relatively ineffective against tacticc wapons (due to the predominating neutron radiation effect at 0.1 kt yield), but are extrem against strategic nuclear weapons with yields of 100, 200 and 300 kt (protective factors of
The definition of protective factor used here is the factor by which casualties numbers are
Richard P. Feynman, ‘This Unscientific Age’, in The Meaning of It All, Penguin Books, London, 1998, pages 106-9:
‘Now, I say if a man is absolutely honest and wants to protect the populace from the effects of radioactivity, which is what our scientific friends often say they are trying to do, then he should work on the biggest number, not on the smallest number, and he should try to point out that the [natural cosmic] radioactivity which is absorbed by living in the city of Denver is so much more serious [than the smaller doses from nuclear
explosions] ... that all the people of Denver ought to move to lower altitudes.'
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“If a man reads or hears a criticism of anything in which he has an interest, watch ... if he shows concern with any question except ‘is it true?’ he thereby reveals that his own attitude is unscientific. Likewise if... he judges an idea not on its merits but with reference to the author of it; if he criticizes it as ‘heresy’; if he argues that authority must be right because it is authority ... The path of truth is paved with critical doubt, and lighted by the spirit of objective enquiry... the majority of people have resented what seems in retrospect to have been purely matter of fact ... nothing has aided the persistence of falsehood, and the evils resulting from it, more than the unwillingness of good people to admit the truth ... the tendency continues to be shocked by natural comment, and to hold certain things too ‘sacred’ to think about. ... How rarely does one meet anyone whose first reaction to anything is to ask: ‘is it true?’ Yet, unless that is a man’s natural reaction, it shows that truth is not uppermost in his mind, and unless it is, true
progress is unlikely.”
- Sir Basil Henry Liddell Hart, Why Don’t We Learn from History?, PEN Books, 1944; revised edition, Allen and Unwin, 1972.
Civil defense countermeasures, to be taken seriously by the population, require the publication of solid facts with the scientific evidence to support those facts against political propaganda to the contrary. Secrecy over the effects of nuclear weapons tests does not hinder plutonium and missile production
by rogue states, but it does hinder civil defense countermeasures, by permitting lying political propaganda to go unopposed (see linked post, here).
Terrorists successfully prey on the vulnerable. The political spreading of lies concerning threats and the alleged ‘impossibility’ of all countermeasures, terrorizing the population in order to ‘justify’ supposedly pro-peace disarmament policies in the 1920s-1930s, resulted in the
secret rearmament of fascist states which were terrorizing the Jews and others, eventually leading to World War II. Political exaggerations about nuclear weapons effects today:
(1) encourage terrorist states and other groups to secretly invest in such weapons to use either for political intimidation or for future use against
countries which have no countermeasures, and (2) falsely dismiss, in the eyes of the media and the public, cheap relatively effective countermeasures like civil defense and ABM. Therefore, doom-mongering media lies make us vulnerable to the proliferation threat today in two ways, just as they led to both world wars:
(1) Exaggerations of offensive technology and a down-playing of simple countermeasures such as trenches, encouraged belligerent states to start World War | in the false belief that modern technology implied overwhelming firepower which would terminate the war quickly on the basis of offensive preparedness: if the facts about simple trench countermeasures against shelling and machine guns during the American Civil War had been properly understood, it would have been recognised by Germany that a long war based on munitions production and logistics would be necessary, and war would have been seen to be likely to lead to German defeat against countries with larger overseas allies and colonies that could
supply munitions and the other resources required to win a long war.
(2) Exaggerations of aerial bombardment technology after World War I led to disarmament ‘supported by’ false claims that it was impossible to have any defense against a perceived threat of instant annihilation from thousands of aircraft carrying gas and incendiary bombs, encouraging fascists to secretly rearm in order to successfully take advantage of the fear and vulnerability caused by this lying political disarmament
propaganda.
Contrived dismissal of civil defense by Marxist “Cambridge Scientists Anti-War Group” bigots: (a) appeased war-mongering enemies, and (b) maximised war mortality rates. Idealism kills. Super effective, fully proof-tested, cheap civil defense makes nuclear deterrence credible to stop
conventional war devastation by avoiding collateral damage, tit-for-tat retaliation and escalation.
Historically, it has been proved that having weapons is not enough to guarantee a reasonable measure of safety from terrorism and rogue states; countermeasures are also needed, both to make any deterrent credible and to negate or at least mitigate the effects of a terrorist attack. Some people who wear seatbelts die in car crashes; some people who are taken to hospital in ambulances, even in peace-time, die. Sometimes, lifebelts and lifeboats cannot save lives at sea. This lack of a 100% success rate in saving lives doesn't disprove the value of everyday precautions or of hospitals and medicine. Hospitals don't lull motorists into a false sense of security, causing them to drive faster and cause more accidents. Like-
minded ‘arguments’ against ABM and civil defense are similarly vacuous.
‘As long as the threat from Iran persists, we will go forward with a missile system that is cost-effective and proven. If the Iranian threat is
eliminated, we will have a stronger basis for security, and the driving force for missile-defense construction in Europe will be removed.’ - President Obama, Prague Castle, Czech Republic, 4 April 2009.
Before 9/11, Caspar Weinberger was quizzed by skeptical critics on the BBC News program Talking Point, Friday, May 4, 2001: Caspar Weinberger quizzed on new US Star Wars ABM plans:
‘The [ABM] treaty was in 1972 ... The theory ... supporting the ABM treaty [which prohibits ABM, thus making nations vulnerable to terrorism] ... that it will prevent an arms race ... is perfect nonsense because we have had an arms race all the time we have had the ABM treaty, and we have seen the greatest increase in proliferation of nuclear weapons that we have ever had. ... So the ABM treaty preventing an arms race is total
nonsense. ...
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‘You have to understand that without any defences whatever you are very vulnerable. It is like saying we don't like chemical warfare - we don't like gas attacks - so we are going to give up and promise not to have any defences ever against them and that of course would mean then we are
perfectly safe. ...
‘The Patriot was not a failure in the Gulf War - the Patriot was one of the things which defeated the Scud and in effect helped us win the Gulf War.
One or two of the shots went astray but that is true of every weapon system that has ever been invented. ...
‘The fact that a missile defence system wouldn't necessarily block a suitcase bomb is certainly not an argument for not proceeding with a missile
defence when a missile that hits can wipe out hundreds of thousands of lives in a second. ...
‘The curious thing about it is that missile defence is not an offensive weapon system - missile defence cannot kill anybody. Missile defence can help preserve and protect your people and our allies, and the idea that you are somehow endangering people by having a defence strikes me almost as
absurd as saying you endanger people by having a gas mask in a gas attack. ...
‘President Bush said that we were going ahead with the defensive system but we would make sure that nobody felt we had offensive intentions because we would accompany it by a unilateral reduction of our nuclear arsenal. It seems to me to be a rather clear statement that proceeding with
the missile defence system would mean fewer arms of this kind.
‘You have had your arms race all the time that the ABM treaty was in effect and now you have an enormous accumulation and increase of nuclear weapons and that was your arms race promoted by the ABM treaty. Now if you abolish the ABM treaty you are not going to get another arms race - you have got the arms already there - and if you accompany the missile defence construction with the unilateral reduction of our own nuclear
arsenal then it seems to me you are finally getting some kind of inducement to reduce these weapons.’
Before the ABM system is in place, and afterwards if ABM fails to be 100% effective in an attack, or is bypassed by terrorists using a bomb in a suitcase
or in a ship, civil defense is required and can be effective at saving lives:
‘Paradoxically, the more damaging the effect, that is the farther out its lethality stretches, the more can be done about it, because in the last fall of
its power it covers vast areas, where small mitigations will save very large numbers of people.’ - Peter Laurie, Beneath the City Streets: A Private Inquiry into the Nuclear Preoccupations of Government, Penguin, 1974.
‘The purpose of a book is to save people [the] time and effort of digging things out for themselves. ... we have tried to leave the reader with something tangible — what a certain number of calories, roentgens, etc., means in terms of an effect on the human being. ... we must think of the
people we are writing for.’
— Dr Samuel Glasstone, DSc, letter dated 1 February 1957 to Colonel Dent L. Lay, Chief, Weapons Effects Division, U.S. Armed Forces Special Weapons Project, Washington, D.C., pages 2 and 4, concerning the preparation of The Effects of Nuclear Weapons.
Glasstone and Dolan stated in The Effects of Nuclear Weapons (1977), Table 12.17 on page 546, that the median distance in Hiroshima for survival
after 20 days was 0.12 miles for people in concrete buildings and 1.3 miles for people standing outdoors. Therefore the median distances for
survival in modern city buildings and in the open differed by a factor of 11 for Hiroshima; the difference in areas was thus a factor of 11? or about 120. Hence, taking cover in modern city buildings reduces the casualty rates and the risks of being killed by a factor of 120 for Hiroshima conditions,
contrary to popular media presented political propaganda that civil defence is hopeless. This would reduce 120,000 casualties to 1,000 casualties.
From Dr Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons (1962/64 ed., page 631): ‘At distances between 0.3 and 0.4 mile from ground zero in Hiroshima the average survival rate, for at least 20 days after the nuclear explosion, was less than 20 percent. Yet in two reinforced concrete office buildings, at these distances, almost 90 percent of the nearly 800 occupants survived more than 20 days, although some died later of radiation injury. Furthermore, of approximately 3,000 school students who were in the open and unshielded within a mile of ground zero at Hiroshima, about 90 percent were dead or missing after the explosion. But of nearly 5,000 students in the same zone who were shielded in one way or another, only 26 percent were fatalities. ... survival in Hiroshima was possible in buildings at such distances that the overpressure in the open was 15 to 20 pounds per square inch. ... it is evident ... that the area over which protection could be effective in saving lives is roughly eight to ten times as great as that
in which the chances of survival are small.’
Lord Mayhew, House of Lords debate on Civil Defence (General Local Authority Functions) Regulations, Hansard, vol. 444, cc. 523-49, 1 November 1983: ‘... if there had been effective civil defence at Hiroshima probably thousands of lives would have been saved and much human
suffering would have been avoided. There is no question about it. ...’
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Since the 1977 update by Glasstone and Dolan, extensive new updates to EM-1 for a further revised edition of The Effects of Nuclear Weapons have not actually been published with unlimited public distribution, due to President Carter’s 1979 executive order which transferred responsibility for civil defense from the jurisdiction of the U.S. Department of Defense’s Defense Civil Preparedness Agency to the new agency (which is not an Agency of the U.S. Department of Defense, and is not concerned with the analysis of nuclear weapons test effects data), the Federal Emergency Management Agency. However, the February 1997 U.S. Department of Defense’s Defense Special Weapons Agency 0602715H RDT&E Budget Item Justification Sheet (R-2 Exhibit) states that a revision of Glasstone and Dolan’s unclassified Effects of Nuclear Weapons was budgeted for 1997-9:
“FY 1997 Plans: ... Provide text to update Glasstone's book, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, the standard reference for nuclear weapons effects. ... Update the unclassified textbook entitled, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons. ... Continue revision of Glasstone's book, The Effects of Nuclear
Weapons, the standard reference for nuclear weapons effects. ... FY1999 Plans ... Disseminate updated The Effects of Nuclear Weapons.”
The new publications are either classified or unclassified with limited distribution restrictions (e.g., Bridgman’s Introduction to the Physics of Nuclear Weapons Effects, which includes several chapters on nuclear weapons design to enable initial radiation outputs to be calculated precisely) which prevents up-to-date basic nuclear effects information to justify civil defense against the latest nuclear threats from being widely disseminated; the books are printed for use only by government agencies. The problem with this approach is that widespread public
understanding of the best information for civil defense countermeasures is prevented.
2 KILOTON AM BURST— 10 SECONDS SECONDS
1 MEGATON AIR BUNST— 37
woxr MILES Joa 04 06 08 10 12 34 1818 20 22 24 26
IMT MILES 9 1 2 a ‘ + e 7 ‘ o 0
‘The evidence from Hiroshima indicates that blast survivors, both injured and uninjured, in buildings later consumed by fire [caused by the blast overturning charcoal braziers used for breakfast in inflammable wooden houses filled with easily ignitable bamboo furnishings and paper screens] were generally able to move to safe areas following the explosion. Of 130 major buildings studied by the U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey ... 107 were ultimately burned out ... Of those suffering fire, about 20 percent were burning after the first half hour. The remainder were consumed by fire spread, some as late as 15 hours after the blast. This situation is not unlike the one our computer-based fire spread model described for
Detroit.’
- Defense Civil Preparedness Agency, U.S. Department of Defense, DCPA Attack Environment Manual, Chapter 3: What the Planner Needs to Know About Fire Ignition and Spread, report CPG 2-1A3, June 1973, Panel 27.
The Effects of the Atomic Bomb on Hiroshima, Japan, US Strategic Bombing Survey, Pacific Theatre, report 92, volume 2 (May 1947, secret): Volume one, page 14:
“,.. the city lacked buildings with fire-protective features such as automatic fire doors and automatic sprinkler systems”, and pages 26-28 state the
heat flash in Hiroshima was only:
“,.. capable of starting primary fires in exposed, easily combustible materials such as dark cloth, thin paper, or dry rotted wood exposed to direct
radiation at distances usually within 4,000 feet of the point of detonation (AZ).” Volume two examines the firestorm and the ignition of clothing by the thermal radiation flash in Hiroshima: Page 24:
“Scores of persons throughout all sections of the city were questioned concerning the ignition of clothing by the flash from the bomb. ... Ten school boys were located during the study who had been in school yards about 6,200 feet east and 7,000 feet west, respectively, from AZ [air zero]. These boys had flash burns on the portions of their faces which had been directly exposed to rays of the bomb. The boys’ stories were consistent to the effect that their clothing, apparently of cotton materials, ‘smoked,’ but did not burst into flame. ... a boy’s coat ... started to smoulder from heat
rays at 3,800 feet from AZ.” [Contrast this to the obfuscation and vagueness in Glasstone, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons! Page 88:
“Ignition of the City. ... Only directly exposed surfaces were flash burned. Measured from GZ, flash burns on wood poles were observed at 13,000 feet, granite was roughened or spalled by heat at 1,300 feet, and vitreous tiles on roofs were blistered at 4,000 feet. ... six persons who had been in reinforced-concrete buildings within 3,200 feet of air zero stated that black cotton blackout curtains were ignited by radiant heat ... dark clothing
was scorched and, in some cases, reported to have burst into flame from flash heat [although as the 1946 unclassified USSBS report admits, most
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immediately beat the flames out with their hands without sustaining injury, because the clothing was not drenched in gasoline, unlike peacetime
gasoline tanker road accident victims|
“,.. but a large proportion of over 1,000 persons questioned was in agreement that a great majority of the original fires was started by debris falling on kitchen charcoal fires, by industrial process fires, or by electric short circuits. Hundreds of fires were reported to have started in the centre of the city within 10 minutes after the explosion. Of the total number of buildings investigated [135 buildings are listed] 107 caught fire, and in 69 instances, the probable cause of initial ignition of the buildings or their contents was as follows: (1) 8 by direct radiated heat from the bomb
(primary fire), (2) 8 by secondary sources, and (3) 53 by fire spread from exposed [wooden] buildings.”
‘It is true that the Soviets have tested nuclear weapons of a yield higher than that which we thought necessary, but the 100-megaton bomb of which they spoke two years ago does not and will not change the balance of strategic power. The United States has chosen, deliberately, to concentrate on more mobile and more efficient weapons, with lower but entirely sufficient yield ...’ - President John F. Kennedy in his television broadcast to the
American public, 26 July 1963.
‘During World War II many large cities in England, Germany, and Japan were subjected to terrific attacks by high-explosive and incendiary bombs. Yet, when proper steps had been taken for the protection of the civilian population and for the restoration of services after the bombing, there was little, if any, evidence of panic. It is the purpose of this book to state the facts concerning the atomic bomb, and to make an objective, scientific analysis of these facts. It is hoped that as a result, although it may not be feasible completely to allay fear, it will at least be possible to
avoid panic.’
— Dr George Gamow (the big bang cosmologist), Dr Samuel Glasstone, DSc (Executive Editor of the book), and Professor Joseph O. Hirschfelder, The Effects of Atomic Weapons, Chapter 1, p. 1, Paragraph 1.3, U.S. Department of Defense, September 1950.
‘The consequences of a multiweapon nuclear attack would certainly be grave ... Nevertheless, recovery should be possible if plans exist and are
carried out to restore social order and to mitigate the economic disruption.’
- Philip J. Dolan, editor of Nuclear Weapons Employment FM 101-31 (1963), Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons DNA-EM-1 (1972), and The Effects of Nuclear Weapons (1977), Stanford Research Institute, Appendix A of the U.S. National Council on Radiological protection (NCRP) symposium The Control of Exposure to the Public of Ionising Radiation in the Event of Accident or Attack, 1981.
‘Suppose the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had been 1,000 times as powerful ... It could not have killed 1,000 times as many people, but at most the entire population of Hiroshima ... [regarding the hype about various nuclear "overkill" exaggerations] there is enough water in the oceans to
drown everyone ten times.’
- Professor Brian Martin, PhD (physics), 'The global health effects of nuclear war', Current Affairs Bulletin, Vol. 59, No. 7, December 1982, pp. 14- 26.
In 1996, half a century after the nuclear detonations, data on cancers from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors was published by D. A. Pierce et al. of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, RERF (Radiation Research vol. 146 pp. 1-27; Science vol. 272, pp. 632-3) for 86,572 survivors, of whom 60% had received bomb doses of over 5 mSv (or 500 millirem in old units) suffering 4,741 cancers of which only 420 were due to radiation,
consisting of 85 leukemias and 335 solid cancers.
‘Today we have a population of 2,383 [radium dial painter] cases for whom we have reliable body content measurements. . . . All 64 bone sarcoma [cancer] cases occurred in the 264 cases with more than 10 Gy [1,000 rads], while no sarcomas appeared in the 2,119 radium cases with less than 10 Gy.’
- Dr Robert Rowland, Director of the Center for Human Radiobiology, Bone Sarcoma in Humans Induced by Radium: A Threshold Response?,
Proceedings of the 27th Annual Meeting, European Society for Radiation Biology, Radioprotection colloquies, Vol. 32CI (1997), pp. 331-8. Zbigniew Jaworowski, 'Radiation Risk and Ethics: Health Hazards, Prevention Costs, and Radiophobia', Physics Today, April 2000, pp. 89-90:
‘,.. it is important to note that, given the effects of a few seconds of irradiation at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, a threshold near 200 mSv may be expected for leukemia and some solid tumors. [Sources: UNSCEAR, Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation, New York, 1994; W. F. Heidenreich, et al., Radiat. Environ. Biophys., vol. 36 (1999), p. 205; and B. L. Cohen, Radiat. Res., vol. 149 (1998), p. 525.] For a protracted lifetime natural exposure, a threshold may be set at a level of several thousand millisieverts for malignancies, of 10 grays for radium-226 in bones, and probably about 1.5-2.0 Gy for lung cancer after x-ray and gamma irradiation. [Sources: G. Jaikrishan, et al., Radiation Research, vol. 152 (1999), p. 8149 (for natural exposure); R. D. Evans, Health Physics, vol. 27 (1974), p. 497 (for radium-226); H. H. Rossi and M. Zaider, Radiat. Environ. Biophys., vol. 36 (1997), p. 85 (for radiogenic lung cancer).] The hormetic effects, such as a decreased cancer incidence at low doses and increased
longevity, may be used as a guide for estimating practical thresholds and for setting standards. ...
‘Though about a hundred of the million daily spontaneous DNA damages per cell remain unrepaired or misrepaired, apoptosis, differentiation, necrosis, cell cycle regulation, intercellular interactions, and the immune system remove about 99% of the altered cells. [Source: R. D. Stewart,
Radiation Research, vol. 152 (1999), p. 101.] ...
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‘[Due to the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986] as of 1998 (according to UNSCEAR), a total of 1,791 thyroid cancers in children had been registered. About 93% of the youngsters have a prospect of full recovery. [Source: C. R. Moir and R. L. Telander, Seminars in Pediatric Surgery, vol. 3 (1994), p. 182.] ... The highest average thyroid doses in children (177 mGy) were accumulated in the Gomel region of Belarus. The highest incidence of thyroid cancer (17.9 cases per 100,000 children) occurred there in 1995, which means that the rate had increased by a factor of about 25 since 1987.
‘This rate increase was probably a result of improved screening [not radiation!]. Even then, the incidence rate for occult thyroid cancers was still a thousand times lower than it was for occult thyroid cancers in nonexposed populations (in the US, for example, the rate is 13,000 per 100,000 persons, and in Finland it is 35,600 per 100,000 persons). Thus, given the prospect of improved diagnostics, there is an enormous potential for detecting yet more [fictitious] "excess" thyroid cancers. In a study in the US that was performed during the period of active screening in 1974-79, it was determined that the incidence rate of malignant and other thyroid nodules was greater by 21-fold than it had been in the pre-1974 period.
[Source: Z. Jaworowski, 2/st Century Science and Technology, vol. 11 (1998), issue 1, p. 14.]’
‘Professor Edward Lewis used data from four independent populations exposed to radiation to demonstrate that the incidence of leukemia was linearly related to the accumulated dose of radiation. ... Outspoken scientists, including Linus Pauling, used Lewis’s risk estimate to inform the public about the danger of nuclear fallout by estimating the number of leukemia deaths that would be caused by the test detonations. In May of 1957 Lewis’s analysis of the radiation-induced human leukemia data was published as a lead article in Science magazine. In June he presented it before the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy of the US Congress.’ — Abstract of thesis by Jennifer Caron, Edward Lewis and Radioactive Fallout:
the Impact of Caltech Biologists Over Nuclear Weapons Testing in the 1950s and 60s, Caltech, January 2003.
Dr John F. Loutit of the Medical Research Council, Harwell, England, in 1962 wrote a book called Irradiation of Mice and Men (University of
Chicago Press, Chicago and London), discrediting the pseudo-science from geneticist Edward Lewis on pages 61, and 78-79:
‘... Mole [R. H. Mole, Brit. J. Radiol., v32, p497, 1959] gave different groups of mice an integrated total of 1,000 r of X-rays over a period of 4 weeks. But the dose-rate - and therefore the radiation-free time between fractions - was varied from 81 r/hour intermittently to 1.3 r/hour continuously. The incidence of leukemia varied from 40 per cent (within 15 months of the start of irradiation) in the first group to 5 per cent in the
last compared with 2 per cent incidence in irradiated controls. ...
‘What Lewis did, and which I have not copied, was to include in his table another group - spontaneous incidence of leukemia (Brooklyn, N.Y.) -
who are taken to have received only natural background radiation throughout life at the very low dose-rate of 0.1-0.2 rad per year: the best
estimate is listed as 2 x 10° like the others in the table. But the value of 2 x 10° was not calculated from the data as for the other groups; it was merely adopted. By its adoption and multiplication with the average age in years of Brooklyners - 33.7 years and radiation dose per year of 0.1-0.2 rad - a mortality rate of 7 to 13 cases per million per year due to background radiation was deduced, or some 10-20 per cent of the observed rate of
65 cases per million per year. ...
‘All these points are very much against the basic hypothesis of Lewis of a linear relation of dose to leukemic effect irrespective of time. Unhappily it is not possible to claim for Lewis’s work as others have done, “It is now possible to calculate - within narrow limits - how many deaths from leukemia will result in any population from an increase in fall-out or other source of radiation” [Leading article in Science, vol. 125, p. 963, 1957].
This is just wishful journalese.
‘The burning questions to me are not what are the numbers of leukemia to be expected from atom bombs or radiotherapy, but what is to be expected from natural background .... Furthermore, to obtain estimates of these, I believe it is wrong to go to [1950s inaccurate, dose rate effect ignoring, data from] atom bombs, where the radiations are qualitatively different [i.e., including effects from neutrons] and, more important, the
dose-rate outstandingly different.’ Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 3rd ed., 1977, pp. 611-3:
‘From the earlier studies of radiation-induced mutations, made with fruitflies [by Nobel Laureate Hermann J. Muller and other geneticists who worked on plants, who falsely hyped their insect and plant data as valid for mammals like humans during the June 1957 U.S. Congressional Hearings on fallout effects], it appeared that the number (or frequency) of mutations in a given population ... is proportional to the total dose ... More recent experiments with mice, however, have shown that these conclusions need to be revised, at least for mammals. [Mammals are biologically closer to humans, in respect to DNA repair mechanisms, than short-lived insects whose life cycles are too small to have forced the evolutionary development of advanced DNA repair mechanisms, unlike mammals that need to survive for decades before reproducing. When exposed
to X-rays or gamma rays, the mutation frequency in these animals has been found to be dependent on the exposure (or dose) rate ...
‘At an exposure rate of 0.009 roentgen per minute [0.54 R/hour], the total mutation frequency in female mice is indistinguishable from the
spontaneous frequency. [Emphasis added.] There thus seems to be an exposure-rate threshold below which radiation-induced mutations are absent .. With adult female mice ... a delay of at least seven weeks between exposure to a substantial dose of radiation, either neutrons or gamma rays, and conception causes the mutation frequency in the offspring to drop almost to zero. ... recovery in the female members of the population would bring
about a substantial reduction in the 'load' of mutations in subsequent generations.’
George Bernard Shaw cynically explains groupthink brainwashing bias:
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‘We cannot help it because we are so constituted that we always believe finally what we wish to believe. The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it and become blind to the arguments against it. The moment we want to disbelieve anything we have previously believed, we suddenly discover not only that there is a mass of evidence against, but that this evidence was staring us in the face all the
time.’
From the essay titled ‘What is Science?’ by Professor Richard P. Feynman, presented at the fifteenth annual meeting of the National Science Teachers Association, 1966 in New York City, and published in The Physics Teacher, vol. 7, issue 6, 1968, pp. 313-20:
‘... great religions are dissipated by following form without remembering the direct content of the teaching of the great leaders. In the same way, it is possible to follow form and call it science, but that is pseudo-science. In this way, we all suffer from the kind of tyranny we have today in the
many institutions that have come under the influence of pseudoscientific advisers.
“We have many studies in teaching, for example, in which people make observations, make lists, do statistics, and so on, but these do not thereby become established science, established knowledge. They are merely an imitative form of science analogous to the South Sea Islanders’ airfields - radio towers, etc., made out of wood. The islanders expect a great airplane to arrive. They even build wooden airplanes of the same shape as they see in the foreigners' airfields around them, but strangely enough, their wood planes do not fly. The result of this pseudoscientific imitation is to produce experts, which many of you are. ... you teachers, who are really teaching children at the bottom of the heap, can maybe doubt the experts.
As a matter of fact, I can also define science another way: Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.’ Richard P. Feynman, ‘This Unscientific Age’, in The Meaning of It All, Penguin Books, London, 1998, pages 106-9:
‘Now, I say if a man is absolutely honest and wants to protect the populace from the effects of radioactivity, which is what our scientific friends often say they are trying to do, then he should work on the biggest number, not on the smallest number, and he should try to point out that the [natural cosmic] radioactivity which is absorbed by living in the city of Denver is so much more serious [than the smaller doses from nuclear
explosions] ... that all the people of Denver ought to move to lower altitudes.'
Feynman is not making a point about low level radiation effects, but about the politics of ignoring the massive natural background radiation dose, while provoking hysteria over much smaller measured fallout pollution radiation doses. Why is the anti-nuclear lobby so concerned about banning nuclear energy - which is not possible even in principle since most of our nuclear radiation is from the sun and from supernova debris contaminating the Earth from the explosion that created the solar system circa 4,540 million years ago - when they could cause much bigger radiation dose reductions to the population by concentrating on the bigger radiation source, natural background radiation. It is possible to shield natural background radiation by the air, e.g. by moving the population of high altitude cities to lower altitudes where there is more air between the people and outer space, or banning the use of high-altitude jet aircraft. The anti-nuclear lobby, as Feynman stated back in the 1960s, didn't crusade to reduce the bigger dose from background radiation. Instead they chose to argue against the much smaller doses from fallout pollution. Feynman's argument is still today falsely interpreted as a political statement, when it is actually exposing pseudo-science and countering political propaganda. It is still ignored by the media. It has been pointed out by Senator Hickenlooper on page 1060 of the May-June 1957 U.S. Congressional Hearings before the Special Subcommittee on Radiation of the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy, The Nature of Radioactive
Fallout and Its Effects on Man:
‘I presume all of us would earnestly hope that we never had to test atomic weapons ... but by the same token I presume that we want to save
thousands of lives in this country every year and we could just abolish the manufacture of [road accident causing] automobiles ...’
Dihydrogen monoxide is a potentially very dangerous chemical containing hydrogen and oxygen which has caused numerous severe burns by scalding and deaths by drowning, contributes to the greenhouse effect, accelerates corrosion and rusting of many metals, and contributes to the erosion of our natural landscape: 'Dihydrogen monoxide (DHMO) is colorless, odorless, tasteless, and kills uncounted thousands of people every year. Most of these deaths are caused by accidental inhalation of DHMO, but the dangers of dihydrogen monoxide do not end there. Prolonged exposure to its solid form causes severe tissue damage. Symptoms of DHMO ingestion can include excessive sweating and urination, and possibly a bloated feeling, nausea, vomiting and body electrolyte imbalance. For those who have become dependent, DHMO withdrawal means certain
death.'
From the site for the petition against dihydrogen monoxide: ‘Please sign this petition and help stop This Invisible Killer. Get the government to do something now. ... Contamination Is Reaching Epidemic Proportions! Quantities of dihydrogen monoxide have been found in almost every stream, lake, and reservoir in America today. But the pollution is global, and the contaminant has even been found in Antarctic ice. DHMO has caused
millions of dollars of property damage in the Midwest, and recently California.’
A recent example of the pseudoscientific radiation 'education' masquerading as science that Feynman (quoted above) objected to in the 1960s was published in 2009 in an article called 'The proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain that may be caused by natural background ionizing radiation’ in Leukemia, vol. 23 (2009), pp. 770-776, which falsely asserts - in contradiction to the evidence that the no- threshold model is contrary to Hiroshima and Nagasaki data: 'Risk models based primarily on studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors imply that low-level exposure to ionizing radiation, including ubiquitous natural background radiation, also raises the risk of childhood
leukaemia. Using two sets of recently published leukaemia risk models and estimates of natural background radiation red-bone-marrow doses
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received by children, about 20% of the cases of childhood leukaemia in Great Britain are predicted to be attributable to this source.' The authors of this pseudoscience which is the opposite of the facts are R. Wakeford (Dalton Nuclear Institute, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK), G. M. Kendall (Childhood Cancer Research Group, Oxford, UK), and M. P. Little (Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK). It is disgusting and sinful that the facts about childhood leukemia are being lied on so blatantly for non-scientific purposes, and it is to be hoped that these leukemia investigators will either correct their errors or alternatively be banned from using scientific literature to promote
false dogma for deception until they mend the error of their ways and repent their sins in this matter.
Protein P53, discovered only in 1979, is encoded by gene TP53, which occurs on human chromosome 17. P53 also occurs in other mammals including mice, rats and dogs. P53 is one of the proteins which continually repairs breaks in DNA, which easily breaks at body temperature: the DNA in each cell of the human body suffers at least two single strand breaks every second, and one double strand (i.e. complete double helix) DNA break occurs at least once every 2 hours (5% of radiation-induced DNA breaks are double strand breaks, while 0.007% of spontaneous DNA breaks at body temperature are double strand breaks)! Cancer occurs when several breaks in DNA happen to occur by chance at nearly the same time, giving several loose strand ends at once, which repair proteins like P53 then repair incorrectly, causing a mutation which can be proliferated somatically. This cannot occur when only one break occurs, because only two loose ends are produced, and P53 will reattach them correctly. But if low-LET ionising radiation levels are increased to a certain extent, causing more single strand breaks, P53 works faster and is able deal with faster breaks as they occur, so that multiple broken strand ends do not arise. This prevents DNA strands being repaired incorrectly, and prevents cancer - a result of mutation caused by faults in DNA - from arising. Too much radiation of course overloads the P53 repair mechanism, and then it cannot repair breaks as they occur, so multiple breaks begin to appear and loose ends of DNA are wrongly connected by P53, causing an increased
cancer risk. 1. DNA-damaging free radicals are equivalent to a source of sparks which is always present naturally.
2. Cancer is equivalent the fire you get if the sparks are allowed to ignite the gasoline, i.e. if the free radicals are allowed to damage DNA without
the damage being repaired.
3. Protein P53 is equivalent to a fire suppression system which is constantly damping out the sparks, or repairing the damaged DNA so that cancer
doesn’t occur. In this way of thinking, the ‘cause’ of cancer will be down to a failure of a DNA repairing enzyme like protein P53 to repair the damage. Dr Jane Orient, 'Homeland Security for Physicians', Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, vol. 11, number 3, Fall 2006, pp. 75-9:
"In the 1960s, a group of activist physicians called Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) undertook to "educate the medical profession and the world about the dangers of nuclear weapons," beginning with a series of articles in the New England Journal of Medicine. [Note that journal was publishing information for anti-civil defense propaganda back in 1949, e.g. the article in volume 241, pp. 647-53 of New England Journal of Medicine which falsely suggests that civil defense in nuclear war would be hopeless because a single burned patient in 1947 with 40% body area burns required 42 oxygen tanks, 36 pints of plasma, 40 pints of whole blood, 104 pints of fluids, 4,300 m of gauze, 3 nurses and 2 doctors. First, only unclothed persons in direct line of sight without shadowing can get 40% body area burns from thermal radiation, second, duck and cover offers protection in a nuclear attack warning, and G. V. LeRoy had already published, two years earlier, in J.A.M.A., volume 134, 1947, pp. 1143-8, that less than 5% of burns in Hiroshima and Nagasaki were caused by building and debris fires. In medicine it is always possible to expend vast resources on patients who are fatally injured. In a mass casualty situation, doctors should not give up just because they don't have unlimited resources; as at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they would need to do their best with what they have.] On its website, www.psr.org, the group boasts that it "led the campaign to end atmospheric nuclear testing." With this campaign, the linear no-threshold (LNT) theory of radiation carcinogenesis became entrenched. It enabled activists to calculate enormous numbers of potential casualties by taking a tiny risk and multiplying it by the population of the earth. As an enduring consequence, the perceived risks of radiation are far out of proportion to actual risks, causing tremendous damage to the American nuclear industry. ... Efforts to save lives were not only futile, but unethical: Any suggestion that nuclear war
could be survivable increased its likelihood and was thus tantamount to warmongering, PSR spokesmen warned. ...
'For the mindset that engendered and enables this situation, which jeopardizes the existence of the United States as a nation as well as the lives of
millions of its citizens, some American physicians and certain prestigious medical organizations bear a heavy responsibility.
‘Ethical physicians should stand ready to help patients to the best of their ability, and not advocate sacrificing them in the name of a political
agenda. Even very basic knowledge, especially combined with simple, inexpensive advance preparations, could save countless lives."
Dr Theodore B. Taylor, Proceedings of the Second Interdisciplinary Conference on Selected Effects of a General War, DASIAC Special Report 95, July 1969, vol. 2, DASA-2019-2, AD0696959, page 298 (also linked here):
'I must just say that as far as I'm concerned I have had some doubts about whether we should have had a civil defense program in the past. I have no doubt whatsoever now, for this reason, that I've seen ways in which the deterrent forces can fail to hold things off, so that no matter what our national leaders do, criminal organizations, what have you, groups of people over which we have no control whatsoever, can threaten other groups
of people."
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This point of Taylor is the key fact on the morality. Suppose we disarm and abandon nuclear power. That won't stop fallout from a war, terrorists, or a foreign reactor blast from coming. Civil defence knowledge is needed. Even when America has ABM, it will be vulnerable to wind carried
fallout. No quantity of pacifist hot air will protect people against radiation.
Charles J. Hitch and Roland B. McKean of the RAND Corporation in their 1960 book The Economics of Defense in the Nuclear Age, Harvard University Press, Massachusetts, pp. 310-57:
‘With each side possessing only a small striking force, a small amount of cheating would give one side dominance over the other, and the incentive to cheat and prepare a preventative attack would be strong ... With each side possessing, say, several thousand missiles, a vast amount of cheating would be necessary to give one side the ability to wipe out the other’s striking capability. ... the more extensive a disarmament agreement is, the smaller the force that a violator would have to hide in order to achieve complete domination. Most obviously, “the abolition of the weapons necessary in a general or ‘unlimited’ war” would offer the most insuperable obstacles to an inspection plan, since the violator could gain an
overwhelming advantage from the concealment of even a few weapons.’
Disarmament after World War I caused the following problem which led to World War II (reported by Winston S. Churchill in the London Daily
Express newspaper of November 1, 1934):
‘Germany is arming secretly, illegally and rapidly. A reign of terror exists in Germany to keep secret the feverish and terrible preparations they
are making.’
British Prime Minister Thatcher's address to the United Nations General Assembly on disarmament on 23 June 1982, where she pointed out that
in the years since the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 10 million people had been killed by 140 non-nuclear conflicts:
‘The fundamental risk to peace is not the existence of weapons of particular types. It is the disposition on the part of some states to impose change on others by resorting to force against other nations ... Aggressors do not start wars because an adversary has built up his own strength. They start
wars because they believe they can gain more by going to war than by remaining at peace.’
J. D. Culshaw, the then Director of the U.K. Home Office Scientific Advisory Branch, stated in his article in the Scientific Advisory Branch journal Fission Fragments, September 1972 (issue No. 19), classified 'Restricted':
‘Apart from those who don't want to know or can't be bothered, there seem to be three major schools of thought about the nature of a possible
Third World War ...
* 'The first group think of something like World War II but a little worse ... * '.,. the second of World War II but very much worse ...
* ‘and the third group think in terms of a catastrophe ...
"When the Armageddon concept is in favour, the suggestion that such problems exist leads to "way out" research on these phenomena, and it is sufficient to mention a new catastrophic threat [e.g., 10 years later this was done by Sagan with "nuclear winter" hype, which turned out to be fake because modern concrete cities can't produce firestorms like 1940s wooden-built areas of Hamburg, Dresden and Hiroshima] to stimulate research into the possibilities of it arising. The underlying appeal of this concept is that if one could show that the execution of all out nuclear, biological or chemical warfare would precipitate the end of the world, no one but a mad man would be prepared to initiate such a war. [However,
as history proves, plenty of mad men end up gaining power and leading countries into wars.]'
J. K. S. Clayton, then Director of the U.K. Home Office Scientific Advisory Branch, stated in his introduction, entitled The Challenge - Why Home Defence?, to the 1977 Home Office Scientific Advisory Branch Training Manual for Scientific Advisers:
‘Since 1945 we have had nine wars - in Korea, Malaysia and Vietnam, between China and India, China and Russia, India and Pakistan and between the Arabs and Israelis on three occasions. We have had confrontations between East and West over Berlin, Formosa and Cuba. There have been civil wars or rebellions in no less than eleven countries and invasions or threatened invasions of another five. Whilst it is not suggested that all these incidents could have resulted in major wars, they do indicate the aptitude of mankind to resort to a forceful solution of its problems,
sometimes with success. ...'
It is estimated that Mongol invaders exterminated 35 million Chinese between 1311-40, without modern weapons. Communist Chinese killed 26.3 million dissenters between 1949 and May 1965, according to detailed data compiled by the Russians on 7 April 1969. The Soviet communist dictatorship killed 40 million dissenters, mainly owners of small farms, between 1917-59. Conventional (non-nuclear) air raids on Japan killed 600,000 during World War II. The single incendiary air raid on Tokyo on 10 March 1945 killed 140,000 people (more than the total for nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined) at much less than the $2 billion expense of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombs! Non- nuclear air raids on Germany during World War II killed 593,000 civilians. The argument that the enemy will continue stocking megaton fallout
weapons if we go to cleaner weapons is irrelevant for deterrence, since we're not planning to start war, just to credibly deter invasions. You should
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not try to lower your standards of warfare to those of your enemy to appease groupthink taboos, or you will end up like Britain's leaders in the
1930s, trying to collaborate with fascists for popular applause. House of Lords debate Nuclear Weapons: Destructive Power, published in Hansard, 14 June 1988:
Lord Hailsham of Saint Marylebone: ‘My Lords, if we are going into the question of lethality of weapons and seek thereby to isolate the nuclear as distinct from the so-called conventional range, is there not a danger that the public may think that Vimy, Passchendaele and Dresden were all right
—sort of tea parties—and that nuclear war is something which in itself is unacceptable?’ Lord Trefgarne: ‘My Lords, the policy of making Europe, or the rest of the world, safe for conventional war is not one that I support.’ House of Commons debate Civil Defence published in Hansard, 26 October 1983:
Mr. Bill Walker (Tayside, North): ‘I remind the House that more people died at Stalingrad than at Hiroshima or Nagasaki. Yet people talk about fighting a conventional war in Europe as if it were acceptable. One rarely sees demonstrations by the so-called peace movement against a conventional war in Europe, but it could be nothing but ghastly and horrendous. The casualties would certainly exceed those at Stalingrad, and
that cannot be acceptable to anyone who wants peace’
On 29 October 1982, Thatcher stated of the Berlin Wall: ‘In every decade since the war the Soviet leaders have been reminded that their pitiless ideology only survives because it is maintained by force. But the day comes when the anger and frustration of the people is so great that force
cannot contain it. Then the edifice cracks: the mortar crumbles ... one day, liberty will dawn on the other side of the wall.’
On 22 November 1990, she said: ‘Today, we have a Europe ... where the threat to our security from the overwhelming conventional forces of the Warsaw Pact has been removed; where the Berlin Wall has been torn down and the Cold War is at an end. These immense changes did not come
about by chance. They have been achieved by strength and resolution in defence, and by a refusal ever to be intimidated.’
'The case for civil defence stands regardless of whether a nuclear deterrent is necessary or not. ... Even if the U.K. were not itself at war, we would be as powerless to prevent fallout from a nuclear explosion crossing the sea as was King Canute to stop the tide.' - U.K. Home Office leaflet, Civil
Defence, 1982.
‘,.. peace cannot be guaranteed absolutely. Nobody can be certain, no matter what policies this or any other Government were to adopt, that the United Kingdom would never again be attacked. Also we cannot tell what form such an attack might take. Current strategic thinking suggests that if war were to break out it would start with a period of conventional hostilities of uncertain duration which might or might not escalate to nuclear conflict. ... while nuclear weapons exist there must always be a chance, however small, that they will be used against us [like gas bombs in World War II]. ... as a consequence of war between other nations in which we were not involved fall out from nuclear explosions could fall on a neutral Britain. ... conventional war is not the soft option that is sometimes suggested. It is also too easily forgotten that in World War II some 50 million people died and that conventional weapons have gone on killing people ever since 1945 without respite.’ - - The Minister of State, Scottish Office (Lord Gray of Contin), House of Lords debate on Civil Defence (General Local Authority Functions) Regulations, Hansard, vol. 444, cc. 523-49, 1 November 1983.
‘All of us are living in the light and warmth of a huge hydrogen bomb, 860,000 miles across and 93 million miles away, which is in a state of
continuous explosion.’ - Dr Isaac Asimov.
‘Dr Edward Teller remarked recently that the origin of the earth was somewhat like the explosion of the atomic bomb...’ — Dr Harold C. Urey, The
Planets: Their Origin and Development, Yale University Press, New Haven, 1952, p. ix.
‘But compared with a supernova a hydrogen bomb is the merest trifle. For a supernova is equal in violence to about a million million million million hydrogen bombs all going off at the same time.’ — Sir Fred Hoyle (1915-2001), The Nature of the Universe, Pelican Books, London, 1963, p. 75.
‘In fact, physicists find plenty of interesting and novel physics in the environment of a nuclear explosion. Some of the physical phenomena are valuable objects of research, and promise to provide further understanding of nature.’ — Dr Harold L. Brode, The RAND Corporation, ‘Review of Nuclear Weapons Effects,’ Annual Review of Nuclear Science, Volume 18, 1968, pp. 153-202.
‘It seems that similarities do exist between the processes of formation of single particles from nuclear explosions and formation of the solar system from the debris of a [4 x 1078 megatons of TNT equivalent, type Ia] supernova explosion. We may be able to learn much more about the origin of the earth, by further investigating the process of radioactive fallout from the nuclear weapons tests.’ — Dr Paul K. Kuroda (1917-2001), University of Arkansas, ‘Radioactive Fallout in Astronomical Settings: Plutonium-244 in the Early Environment of the Solar System,’ pages 83-96 of Radionuclides in the Environment: A Symposium Sponsored By the Division of Nuclear Chemistry and Technology At the 155th Meeting of the American Chemical Society, San Francisco, California, April 1-3, 1968, edited by Symposium Chairman Dr Edward C. Freiling (1922-2000) of the U.S. Naval Radiological Defense Laboratory, Advances in Chemistry Series No. 93, American Chemical Society, Washington, D.C., 1970.
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Dr Paul K. Kuroda (1917-2001) in 1956 correctly predicted the existence of water-moderated natural nuclear reactors in flooded uranium ore seams, which were discovered in 1972 by French physicist Francis Perrin in three ore deposits at Oklo in Gabon, where sixteen sites operated as natural nuclear reactors with self-sustaining nuclear fission 2,000 million years ago, each lasting several hundred thousand years, averaging 100 kW. The radioactive waste they generated remained in situ for a period of 2,000,000,000 years without escaping. They were discovered during investigations into why the U-235 content of the uranium in the ore was only 0.7171% instead of the normal 0.7202%. Some of the ore, in the middle of the natural reactors, had a U-235 isotopic abundance of just 0.440%. Kuroda's brilliant paper is entitled, 'On the Nuclear Physical Stability of the Uranium Minerals', published in the Journal of Chemical Physics, vol. 25 (1956), pp. 781-782 and 1295-1296.
A type Ia supernova explosion, always yielding 4 x 1078
megatons of TNT equivalent, results from the critical mass effect of the collapse of a white dwarf as soon as its mass exceeds 1.4 solar masses due to matter falling in from a companion star. The degenerate electron gas in the white dwarf is then no longer able to support the pressure from the weight of gas, which collapses, thereby releasing enough gravitational potential energy as heat and pressure to cause the fusion of carbon and oxygen into heavy elements, creating massive amounts of radioactive nuclides, particularly intensely radioactive nickel-56, but half of all other nuclides (including uranium and heavier) are also produced by the 'R' (rapid) process of successive neutron captures by fusion products in supernovae explosions. Type Ia supernovae occur typically every 400 years in the Milky Way galaxy. On 4 July 1054, Chinese astronomers observed in the sky (without optical instruments) the bright supernova in the constellation Taurus which today is still visible as the Crab Nebula through telescopes. The Crab Nebula debris has a diameter now of 7 light years and is still expanding at 800 miles/second. The supernova debris shock wave triggers star formation when it encounters hydrogen gas in space by compressing it and seeding it with debris; bright stars are observed in the Orion Halo, the 300 light year diameter remains of a supernova. It is estimated that when the solar system was forming 4,540 million years ago, a supernova occurred around 100 light years away, and the heavy
radioactive debris shock wave expanded at 1,000 miles/second. Most of the heavy elements including iron, silicon and calcium in the Earth and
people are the stable end products of originally radioactive decay chains from the space burst fallout of a 7 x 1076 megatons thermonuclear
explosion, created by fusion and successive neutron captures after the implosion of a white dwarf; a supernova explosion.
How would a 10°> megaton hydrogen bomb explosion differ from the big bang? Ignorant answers biased in favour of curved spacetime (ignoring quantum gravity!) abound, such as claims that explosions can’t take place in ‘outer space’ (disagreeing with the facts from nuclear space bursts by Russia and America in 1962, not to mention natural supernova explosions in space!) and that explosions produce sound waves in air by definition! There are indeed major differences in the nuclear reactions between the big bang and a nuclear bomb. But it is helpful to notice the solid physical fact that implosion systems suggest the mechanism of gravitation: in implosion, TNT is well-known to produce an inward force on a bomb core, but Newton's 3rd law says there is an equal and opposite reaction force outward. In fact, you can’t have a radially outward force without an inward reaction force! It’s the rocket principle. The rocket accelerates (with force F = ma) forward by virtue of the recoil from accelerating the exhaust gas
(with force F = -ma) in the opposite direction! Nothing massive accelerates without an equal and opposite reaction force. Applying this fact to the
measured 6 x 107! ms? ~ He cosmological acceleration of matter radially outward from observers in the universe which was predicted accurately in 1996 and later observationally discovered in 1999 (by Perlmutter, et al.), we find an outward force F = ma and inward reaction force by the 3rd
law. The inward force allows quantitative predictions, and is mediated by gravitons, predicting gravitation in a checkable way (unlike string
theory, which is just a landscape of 10°" different perturbative theories and so can’t make any falsifiable predictions about gravity). So it seems as if nuclear explosions do indeed provide helpful analogies to natural features of the world, and the mainstream lambda-CDM model of cosmology -
with its force-fitted unobserved ad hoc speculative ‘dark energy’ - ignores and sweeps under the rug major quantum gravity effects which increase the physical understanding of particle physics, particularly force unification and the relation of gravitation to the existing electroweak SU(2) x
U()) section of the Standard Model of fundamental forces.
Richard Lieu, Physics Department, University of Alabama, ‘Lambda-CDM cosmology: how much suppression of credible evidence, and does the
model really lead its competitors, using all evidence?’, http://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2462.
Even Einstein grasped the possibility that general relativity's lambda-CDM model is at best just a classical approximation to quantum field theory,
at the end of his life when he wrote to Besso in 1954:
‘I consider it quite possible that physics cannot be based on the [classical differential equation] field principle, i.e., on continuous structures. In
that case, nothing remains of my entire castle in the air, [non-quantum] gravitation theory included ...’
‘Science is the organized skepticism in the reliability of expert opinion.’ - Professor Richard P. Feynman (quoted by Professor Lee Smolin, The Trouble with Physics, Houghton-Mifflin, New York, 2006, p. 307).
‘The expression of dissenting views may not seem like much of a threat to a powerful organization, yet sometimes it triggers an amazingly hostile response. The reason is that a single dissenter can puncture an illusion of unanimity. ... Among those suppressed have been the engineers who tried to point out problems with the Challenger space shuttle that caused it to blow up. More fundamentally, suppression is a denial of the open dialogue and debate that are the foundation of a free society. Even worse than the silencing of dissidents is the chilling effect such practices have on others. For every individual who speaks out, numerous others decide to play it safe and keep quiet. More serious than external censorship is the problem
of self-censorship.’
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— Professor Brian Martin, University of Wollongong, ‘Stamping Out Dissent', Newsweek, 26 April 1993, pp. 49-50
In 1896, Sir James Mackenzie-Davidson asked Wilhelm R6ntgen, who discovered X-rays in 1895: ‘What did you think?’ Réntgen replied: ‘I did not think, I investigated.’ The reason? Cathode ray expert J. J. Thomson in 1894 saw glass fluorescence far from a tube, but due to prejudice (expert opinion) he avoided investigating that X-ray evidence! ‘Science is the organized skepticism in the reliability of expert opinion.’ - Richard Feynman, in Lee Smolin, The Trouble with Physics, Houghton-Mifflin, 2006, p. 307.
Mathematical symbols in this blog: your computer’s browser needs access to standard character symbol sets to display Greek symbols for mathematical physics. If you don’t have the symbol character sets installed, the density symbol 'p' (Rho) will appear as 'r' and the 'z' (Pi) symbol will as 'p', causing confusion with the use of 'r' for radius and 'p' for momentum in formulae. This problem exists with Mozilla Firefox 3, but not
with Microsoft Explorer which displays Greek symbols.
About Me Name: nige
Currently designing secure active server page (ASP) front ends for client SQL databases. In 1982 I began programming in basic, and at college learned Fortran while a physics undergraduate a decade later. Afterwards, I switched from mainstream physics and mathematical education to part-time programming student, while working in a series of jobs including four years in credit control. www.quantumfieldtheory.org http://glasstone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/capabilities-of-nuclear-weapons.html/ http://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/? p=273#comment- 5322. http://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/? p=353&cpage=1#comment-8728. http://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/? p=215#comment-4082.
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From 1945-62, America tested 216 nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, totalling 154 megatons, with a mean yield of 713 kilotons From 1949-62, Russia tested 214 nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, totalling 281 megatons, with a mean yield of 1.31 megatons From 1952-8, Britain tested 21 nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, totalling 10.8 megatons, with a mean yield of 514 kilotons From 1960-74, France tested 46 nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, totalling 11.4 megatons, with a mean yield of 248 kilotons From 1964-80, China tested 23 nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, totalling 21.5 megatons, with a mean yield of 935 kilotons
In summary, from 1945-80, America, Russia, Britain, France and China tested 520 nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, totalling 478.7 megatons,
with a mean yield of 921 kilotons
Mean yield of the 5,192 nuclear warheads and bombs in the deployed Russian nuclear stockpile as of January 2009: 0.317 Mt. Total yield: 1,646 Mt.
Mean yield of the 4,552 nuclear warheads and bombs in the deployed U.S. nuclear stockpile as of January 2007: 0.257 Mt. Total yield: 1,172 Mt.
For diffraction damage where damage areas scale as the two-thirds power of explosive yield, this stockpile's area damage potential can be compared to the 20,000,000 conventional bombs of 100 kg size (2 megatons of TNT equivalent total energy) dropped on Germany during World
War II: (Total nuclear bomb blast diffraction damaged ground area)/(Total conventional blast diffraction damaged ground area to Germany
during World War II) = [4,552*(0.257 Mt)”/3}/[20,000,000*(0.0000001 Mt)/3] = 1,840/431 = 4.3. Thus, although the entire U.S. stockpile has a TNT energy equivalent to 586 times that of the 2 megatons of conventional bombs dropped on Germany in World War II, it is only capable of causing 4.3 times as much diffraction type damage area, because any given amount of explosive energy is far more efficient when distributed over many small explosions than in a single large explosion! Large explosions are inefficient because they cause unintended collateral damage, wasting energy off the
target area and injuring or damaging unintended targets!
In a controlled sample of 36,500 survivors, 89 people got leukemia over a 40 year period, above the number in the unexposed control group. (Data: Radiation Research, volume 146, 1996, pages 1-27.) Over 40 years, in 36,500 survivors monitored, there were 176 leukemia deaths which is 89 more than the control (unexposed) group got naturally. There were 4,687 other cancer deaths, but that was merely 339 above the number in the control (unexposed) group, so this is statistically a much smaller rise than the leukemia result. Natural leukemia rates, which are very low in any case, were increased by 51% in the irradiated survivors, but other cancers were merely increased by just 7%. Adding all the cancers together, the total was 4,863 cancers (virtually all natural cancer, nothing whatsoever to do with radiation), which is just 428 more than the unexposed control group. Hence, the total increase over the natural cancer rate due to bomb exposure was only 9%, spread over a period of 40 years. There was no increase
whatsoever in genetic malformations.
There should be a note here about how unnatural radioactive pollution is (not) in space: the earth's atmosphere is a radiation shield equivalent to being protected behind a layer of water 10 metres thick. This reduces the cosmic background radiation by a factor of 100 of what it would be without the earth's atmosphere. Away from the largely uninhabited poles, the Earth's magnetic field also protects us against charged cosmic
radiations, which are deflected and end up spiralling around the magnetic field at high altitude, in the Van Allen trapped radiation belts. On the
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Moon, for example, there is no atmosphere or significant magnetic field so the natural background radiation exposure rate at solar minimum is 1 milliRoentgen per hour (about 10 microSieverts/hour) some 100 times that on the Earth (0.010 milliRoentgen per hour or about 0.10 microSieverts/hour). The Apollo astronauts visiting the Moon wore dosimeters and they received an average of 275 milliRoentgens (about 2.75 milliSieverts) of radiation (well over a year's exposure to natural background at sea level) in over just 19.5 days. It is a lot more than that during a
solar flare, which is one of the concerns for astronauts to avoid (micrometeorites are another concern in a soft spacesuit).
The higher up you are above sea level, the less of the atmosphere there is between you and space, so the less shielding you have to protect you from the intense cosmic space radiations (emitted by thermonuclear reactors we call 'stars', as well as distant supernovae explosions). At sea level, the air above you constitutes a radiation shield of 10 tons per square metre or the equivalent of having a 10 metres thick water shield between you and outer space. As you go up a mountain or up in an aircraft, the amount of atmosphere between you and space decreases, thus radiation levels increase with altitude because there is less shielding. The normal background radiation exposure rate shoots up by a factor of 20, from 0.010 to 0.20 milliRoentgens per hour, when any airplane ascends from sea level to 36,000 feet cruising altitude. (The now obsolete British Concorde supersonic transport used to maintain radiation-monitoring equipment so that it could drop to lower-altitude flight routes if excessive cosmic radiation due to solar storms were detected.) Flight aircrew get more radiation exposure than many nuclear industry workers at nuclear power plants. Residents of the high altitude city of Denver get 100 milliRoentgens (about 1 milliSievert) more annual exposure than a resident of Washington, D.C., but the
mainstream anti-radiation cranks don't campaign for the city to be shut to save kids radiation exposure, for mountain climbing to be banned, etc.! 1994 revised Introduction to Kearny’s Nuclear War Survival Skills, by Dr Edward Teller, January 14, 1994:
‘If defense is neglected these weapons of attack become effective. They become available and desirable in the eyes of an imperialist dictator, even if his means are limited. Weapons of mass destruction could become equalizers between nations big and small, highly developed and primitive, if defense is neglected. If defense is developed and if it is made available for general prevention of war, weapons of aggression will become less desirable. Thus defense makes war itself less probable. ... One psychological defense mechanism against danger is to forget about it. This attitude is
as common as it is disastrous. It may turn a limited danger into a fatal difficulty.’
Advice of Robert Watson-Watt (Chief Scientist on the World War II British Radar Project, defending Britain against enemy attacks): ‘Give them
the third best to go on with, the second best comes too late, the best never comes.’
From Wikipedia (a source of groupthink): ‘Groupthink is a type of thought exhibited by group members who try to minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing, and evaluating ideas. Individual creativity, uniqueness, and independent thinking are lost in the pursuit of group cohesiveness, as are the advantages of reasonable balance in choice and thought that might normally be obtained by making decisions as a group. During groupthink, members of the group avoid promoting viewpoints outside the comfort zone of consensus thinking. A variety of motives for this may exist such as a desire to avoid being seen as foolish, or a desire to avoid embarrassing or angering other members of the group. Groupthink may cause groups to make hasty, irrational decisions, where individual doubts are set aside, for fear of upsetting the
group’s balance.’
Links © Google News © Dr Carl E. Baum's EMP theory and interaction notes © The Atomic Heritage Foundation © Radiation Effects Research Foundation lumps data together to cover up benefits of low dose radiation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki Life Span Study! © DTRA (Defense Threat Reduction Agency) Nuclear testing histories (PDF files) © Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan © Carl F. Miller's fallout research at nuclear tests
British Home Office Scientific Advisory Branch
a
a
© Samuel Cohen's book about the collateral damage averting, invasion-deterring neutron bomb he invented, and the lying political attacks he endured as a result
© Jerry Emanuelson's review of EMP facts, including the direct dependence of the EMP on the Earth's natural magnetic field strength at the burst location
© Essays by 1950s American nuclear weapon effects test (and neutron bomb design) experts, discrediting anti-civil defence propaganda
© Neutron bomb inventor Samuel Cohen's 2006 book on the history of the neutron bomb, the most moral weapon ever invented due to its purely military deterrent capabilities, and the pesudo-scientific propaganda war he has had to endure from the enemies of deterrence
© Karl-Ludvig Grenhaug's EMP reports page with useful PDF downloads on prompt EMP and MHD-EMP measurements from nuclear tests (Norwegian language)
© Colonel Derek L. Duke's factual book on nuclear weapons accidents, Chasing Loose Nukes, as told to Fred Dungan
© The H-Bomb and the birth of the Universe: 'For 100 Million years after time began, the universe was dark as pitch. The clouds of hydrogen condensed into huge nuclear fireballs. That moment-when the universe first lit up-was the moment of creation that matters...'
© American EMP Interaction manual: comprehensive theory of both the EMP source mechanism and the EMP pick-up in cables and antenna by electromagnetic inductance (30 MB PDF file)
© British Mission to Japan, The Effects of the Atomic Bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, H. M. Stationery Office, London, 1946 (high quality 42.5 MB pdf file).
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© 1950 edition (high quality 82.7 MB PDF file) of U.S. Department of Defense book The Effects of Atomic Weapons © 1957 edition (high quality 90.8 MB PDF file) of subsequently deleted sections on nuclear tests of civil defense countermeasures from U.S. Department of Defense book The Effects of Nuclear Weapons © 1957 edition (low quality 30.6 MB PDF file) of entire U.S. Department of Defense book The Effects of Nuclear Weapons © 1962/64 edition (high quality 188 MB PDF file) of major revised sections in the U.S. Department of Defense book The Effects of Nuclear Weapons © 1962/64 edition (high quality 43.8 MB PDF file) of 74 pages of subsequently deleted material dealing with thermal ignition of houses at nuclear tests and civil defense countermeasures chapter, from the U.S. Department of Defense book The Effects of Nuclear Weapons © 1977 edition (single 36.8 MB PDF file) of U.S. Department of Defense book The Effects of Nuclear Weapons © Bill Forstchen, "One Second After" book about EMP attack risk and its effects on USA. © U.S. Department of Energy Opennet Documents Online (includes many Nevada and Pacific nuclear test reports as PDF files) © Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC)'s Scientific and Technical Information Network (STINET) Service (other declassified Nevada and Pacific test reports) © Highlights from ABM testing history © THAAD Goes Another ABM Test © Alex Wellerstein's Restricted Data blog contains some interesting news (but beware of his uncritical use of unobstructed dry desert and nude skin thermal radiation and other effects predictions from the 1977 edition of Glasstone and Dolan; he deletes critically objective comments and pretends that honest criticisms of propaganda as being ignorant deception are rude as an excuse for ignoring the facts and refusing to engage in objective discussion of controversial aspects of this topic; basically if you pay homage and engage in groupthink bias you may be tolerated). © Carey Sublette's Nuclear Weapon Archive (it contains errors from Chuck Hansen's compilation, and it is concentrated on bomb building, not on civil defence countermeasure evaluations done at nuclear tests; note that Chuck Hansen's books and CDs give a false quotation from Neil O' Hines's book Proving Groundson the effects of the 1952 Mike explosion on nearby Engebi Island, where Hines later in the book states that the native rats in fact survived the intense close-in blast, heat and fallout under a few unches of soil, despite the initial ignorant belief that they could not have survived!!!)
e Quantum Field Theory
e Los Alamos Science journal
e Excellent particle physics gauge theory (fundamental force interaction) issue of Los Alamos Science journal
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11/05/2023, 08:43 Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons exaggerations. yy
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BANK OF JAPAN BUILDING AFTER ATTACK ON HIROSHIMA survivors extinguished fire with water buckets.
U. S. STRATEGIC BOMBING SURVEY Field Team No. 1, Hiroshima, Japan Sueet No, 2 Building No.: 24, Coordinates: 5H. Distance from (G2); 1,300, (AZ): 2,400. The NAME: Bank of Japan, Hiroshima branch. CONSTRUCTION AND DESIGN Type: Reinforeed-conerete frame (steel core).
REMARKS: Fire only in room at southwest corner « second story and in entire third story, No fire i building right after bomb, but afire at 1000° he Fire in room in second story extinguished with water
buckets
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http www. hiroshima-navi,or jplensightseeing/hibaku_jreihitatemonol21383 php
The Bank of Japan, Hiroshima, survived 380 m from Ground Zero, within the firestorm area, when fires were extinguished by water buckets by its survivors, the majority of people in the building having survived. Secret US Strategic Bombing Survey report proves civil defense for modern concrete buildings is effective. The building was reopened as a bank on 8 August, merely two days after nuclear attack, and continued in use as a bank until 1992. It remains in Hiroshima. This beautifully designed and sturdy reinforced concrete building was designed in 1936 by Nagano Uheiji. Cook’s law: ”Any man called Godwin who claims it is immoral to learn the lessons from the results of Nazi racist eugenics pseudoscience and to apply those lessons to those terrible media dominating celebrity-taboo-lovers who appease, cover-up, or defend the continuation of an evil, irrational pseudoscience which is causing unnecessary suffering today, is defending injustice, inhumanity and irrational consensus evil and is not behaving as a humane, objective, person. We need to ensure that the worst mistakes of the past are never repeated, if we are just, moral and caring towards our fellow human beings who do not deserve to be fed lies and dangerously complacent one-sided, biased propaganda based on a populist love of obsolete dogma, and/or a hatred of the search for objective fact, by pseudo-educationalists who prefer to live in utopia than in the real world of their fellow folk!”
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: (1). Thank you to http://www.militarystory.org/nuclear-detonations-in-urban-and-suburban-areas/ for re-blogging a
typical post from this glasstone.blogspot.com blog, kicking out the lies from under secrecy obsessed loons who want disarmament to start WWIII.
(2). Thank you to https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/02/are-nuclear-weapons-100-times-less.html for reblogging: "Are [strategic, not tactical] Nuclear Weapons 100 times Less Effective Than Supposed? Nigel B. Cook’s Glasstone.Blogspot Blog has beautiful coverage of many nuclear topics here. http://glasstone.blogspot.co.uk/ Cook is a master researcher who digs up incredible piles of research on all topics nuclear and the following is digest of various writings of his gathered for easy access centered on the remarkable thesis that the effects of nuclear weapons, while literally
awesome, have been exaggerated or misunderstood to an even greater extent, with perhaps very considerable military consequences."
TIPS: There is compendium debunking commonplace anti-nuclear CND disarmament propaganda, exaggerations and fake news on nuclear weapons effects and deterrent capabilities linked here. Also, each post on this blog can be viewed in either a simple format, e.g. for this current post, https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-and.html is the simple (faster loading) format, or you can view it (slower loading) in a fancy format by adding: ?m=1 to the end of the URL, e.g. https://glasstone.blogspot.com/2022/02/analogy-of-1938-munich-crisis-
and.html?m=1
"The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances ... at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994 ... signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States ... prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. As a result of
other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons." - Wiki.
NATO needs to come to its senses and rearm to deter WWIII instead of stupidly leaving Putin with more nuclear weapons than anyone else, to intimidate like Hitler (see 1930s newspapers below, which spell out the problem plainly). The problem is, the media is dominated by nuclear liars just as it was dominated by gas war liars in the 1930s, who encouraged war while pretending to be doing the opposite. Fighting a conventional war using Ukraine as proxy, while having an inferior nuclear stockpile, is hardly credible nuclear deterrence (please click here for our brief declassified data debunking Glasstone's lying data on nuclear weapons effects) . Also see the compendium linked here for more detail on the actual declassified
effects found in Hiroshima, contrary to Glasstone's very deceptive treatment!
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